It that stupid planet that always causes trouble in the database since it doesn't has a number associated with it, only a number of names.

Reminds me of the Voth in the episode of Voyager "Distant Origin" where this one scientist suspects that they came from this blue ball earth but they've been away for so long and the knowledge has been lost so they consider him a heretic.

That theme was touched on by Asimov in one of his novellas. There were two competing theories: that humanity originates in a single cradle world or it developed on multiple locations and mixed later. The novella played out in an ancient world that went almost completely radioactive to the point of being practically inhospitable (Earth, not due to war but for other spoilery reasons). A time traveller was asked by a local scientist whether he knows if this is the cradle of humanity, but the question is an oxymoron, since in order to be able to map the galaxy for the absence of other humans you first need to get to become a galactic civilisation, and by that time if you lost the location of the cradle world, you'll never know if it even existed. The scientist was a proponent of the single cradle world theory and came to the now inhospitable Earth to check whether the high amounts of radioactivity could be a trigger to slingshot rapid evolution, which they haven't found anywhere else in the galaxy.

Zelazny did not write that. In “Lord Of Light”, the starship “Star Of India” lost track of Earth’s location by the time that the gods (actually the crew and their children) defeated local intelligent races, many of which had abandoned physical forms. What you write about sounds like something written by an SF author of the Campbell era.

Harry Harrison's Stainless Steel Rat stories several times mentioned the "rumored home of Mankind" called (by some) Dirt, or Earth. Never saw anything like that written by Zelazny, though.

We would have a duty to leave lots of mysterious cryptic artifacts for future civilizations to discover.

@@okankyoto Don't worry, just a statue of a throbbing penis with RGB lights could serve that purpose. A lot of things that seem normal to us could be weird and mysterious to aliens.

No pressure

@@DinosaurEmperor84 man this is a great comment.

On our current track, we'd be the first loser too. We'll be lucky to have heavy industry in two centuries, let alone be in space.

I like this take

Ocean-dwelling civilizations have a hard step that we can gloss over: underwater metallurgy. Given enough time, I think a social/smart species could overcome this, but it would take significantly longer than a land-dwelling species, since they'd be relying on naturally occurring heat sources (they can't exactly start a fire for a forge).

most would more like have no need for technology, they've evolved to their planet to survive, we're very unique in the fact we evolved to survive any environment and control our environment to survive

@@jasonbreathkiller3660 A definite possibility- but one that makes it more difficult to detect civilizations

But we're WIP anyway! 250 years ago humans were restricted to existence on the ground with no prospect of flight. That's just a blink in humankind's history - let alone earth's history, let alone the universe's past, let alone the trillions of years to come - so, give us another 500-1000 years (still only a blink) and what we'll have achieved by then is pretty unimaginable to us now....

I think the principal that we should land in the middle in time of all intelligent civilisations is poorly motivated. It's a misapplication of frequentist probability.

Yes someone who actually understands Occam’s Razor is about Assumptions not Simplicity. It annoys me far more that it should when people get it wrong.

It's all down to the way you approach the idea of being the first intelligent lifeform. Logically, someone has to be first, so it must be possible Mathematically, if life is common, then the odds of being the first intelligent life is beyond 1 in a googleplex. That's infinitesimally small. It's like dropping a grain of sand on a beach and trying to pick up the same single grain of sand again - that's how unlikely it is.

See, but that's the thing. You're putting a whole lot of weight on that "if". We have a grand total of one planet that we can say for sure has life on it. To say that life is common is a pretty big assumption to begin with. The further assumptions needed to reach "grabby aliens" means that Occam's razor leans towards "we're early".

He already talked about the CHANCE of those being grabby aliens. You bake that chance into your assumption how high that chance is.

I think it's more interesting that even when we become the "grabby alien" and are an early civilization, it's still inevitable that we will run into another grabby alien, another space empire. What will happen then? Can we peacefully coexist and learn off each other, or will there be a galaxy spanning war?

@@Gwyrddu grow up man-child. There won't be ever anyone reaching us. It's not realistic. It's not fathomable. You just cannot arrive here until you'll become bunch of corpses on that damn spaceship. Even so, you would at least come with a enormous fleet of spaceships in which it carries fuel and whatnot to sustain such a distance. Even a large amount of energy if you use that fasterthanlight concept. Stars amount of energy in fact. So yeah. This topic is total unnecessary bullshit. It's as nonsensical as Dyson spheres. I seen people commenting about it being the "future" but all those tailless monkeys don't seem to account for the amount of materials needed which isn't even enough if you use the entire entire itself. Like gosh this is such a childishly naive topic to begin with

@@VinnyUnion All you are pointing out are a bunch of engineering challenges. Lifespan (which can vary depending on the alien) versus travel distance isn't that important when you can build generation ships, maybe even hollowing out a small asteroid as your base. And that's assuming that our first contact will be the alien itself instead of one of their unmanned probes are a cheap and easy to send out everywhere as a precursor to space colonization. Faster than light would be nice but is unnecessary (as if your hostility) when you can just take everything you need with you, and in context of millions of years it's probably inevitable that we will solve all these problems if not sooner.

that is if we can survive that long.

We wont, we'll be extinct.

We would be studied anyway if found out, just like you study the 10.000th coup in ancient rome if you take that field of study

Intelligent. Have you seen how political zealots behave? It does not look intelligent to me. Math is racist. remember?

Can't wait for them to find out about furries

everyone, before you die DELETE YOUR BROWSER HISTORY, the child races cannot know what we were into.

Not a chance.

When you look at the evolution of humans, the circumstances of our evolution all seem very, well, circumstantial. There is nothing in the fossil record to suggest anything on par with our intelligence has ever existed before, or will again. It's not like the convergent evolution of Sharks, Ichthyosaurs and Dolphins all having similar body plans. Our sentience seems to be random and wholly unique evolutionary pressures. Assuming that life has appeared on other worlds. It then evolving a species intelligent enough to achieve space travel seems like a whole other leap. The fact that the human species, as intelligent as it is existing at all seems an astronomical stroke of luck. A miracle frankly.

You only have to think about how many billions of species lived and died on earth for humans to be the only ones to achieved what we have, to put in perspective how rare we are

But if we are the precursors..... i get the feeling that were gonna end up being the villains

@@nomorebeans800 why? We generally think fondly and identify proudly with civilizations before us even if they weren't nice and cuddly like the Aztecs or the Romans.

@@mrvk39 but we dont to civilisations that exist today..... if we as a species are willing to hate and discriminate and even kill other members of our species for slight and meaningless diferences....then what will happen when we encounter a completly foreign civilisation from our own. If we end up being technologicaly superior then i see a repeat of what happened to the native american people from european invaders but on a planetary scale.

@@nomorebeans800 We generally do mean things by either mistake with good intentions or when we feel insecure (competitive issues or maybe lack of some resource or perceived lack of something). And I think this will guide our interactions with alien civilizations too. We will simply project our evolutionary-driven responses to each other to alien civilizations. And our evolutionary responses are desire to cooperate and trade (ideas, resources, etc) and our competitive fears/insecurities (securing resources, having places to expand). So, if they are far less advanced and we don't feel we are on a brink of extinction with resources plentiful and other planets to colonize, we should be benevolent or at the very least non-interfering. If we are close technologically, our fears might override our desire to cooperate but even that isn't set in stone and will depend on what are evolutionary drives of alien civilizations or at least, our interpretation of it (for we might never quite understand what really motivates alien intelligence). I don't think we will act like we did in Africa/New World because space seems vast and empty of colonizing species - there are a lot of resources out there and a lot of planets without a likely very, very rare event of having intelligent life there.

@@mrvk39 i think you misunderstand humanitys potentential for evil....what well meaning motive or isecurity drives racism and prejedice. When we encounter a group with something we want, we invade and take from them and their is no form of insecurity or well meaning motive behind it. Just look at the conflicts in afganhistan and syria or the isreal palestine conflict. These are situations where one group of humans crushes another for resources and land and that has happened throughout all of history. If we encounter another sentient species...i hope their world is uninhabitable for humans with a lack of any precious materials for their sakes because humanitys trackrecord for those kinds of situations is not very good towords even itself let alone other species. Why do you think so many of our animals our reaching extinction....

That's fantasy, not 'sci-fi'. Personally I have zero time for fantasy novels dressed up as 'sci-fi'... looking at you Star Wars, etc.

​@@sunnyjim1355 well aren't you special

I certainly don’t contribute to humanity’s greatness. If only I could stop reading KZfaq comments.

What a sunny person

@@sunnyjim1355 is that your way of saying that you are a better person than OP?

You mean to go and wipe out the rest. Humans prefer the offensive.

"Defend"

Well, given the nature of life, saying we would have ample time to have an advantage to defend ourselves would be quite optimistic. And naive. If we aren't going to encounter extraterrestrial aggressors, we are gonna be the aggressors.

@@buragi5441 Makes sense. Any race aggressive enough to go out and explore would likely be colonizers like us. Just because of being competitive enough to expand

Being early isn't necessarily an advantage. Take a look at the map of the world and see where the oldest cultures are. Seems like it's good to be middle of the pack time-wise. Not so early as to be decrepit when challenges come; not so late as to be completely determined by what came before (with a few exceptions).

There is nithing to fight except yourswlf

Sounds like you just did.

Unless US Government send private companies, like Space X who is in it for profit, doing the exploration, I would guess we would try to stay hidden while observing and learning. What do you think?

Do you go to the zoo and say "hey, look at those intelligent life"? The difference in intelligence between a space-veering species and us is could be the same as the difference between us and a termite.

@@abnorman541 I think you meant spacefaring. I know videos may make it seem like we are stationary, but I assure you, we are traveling through space. A very poor analogy, though. I applaud the imagination and your reflection. Rest assured we are very important. Each one of us a reflection of reality. Bravo!

@@puppykibble Yeah, it was a typo, my mind and my fingers don't agree sometimes lol. I'm not saying we're not important, I just think it's more than a tad mora than optimistic that aliens capable of interstellar would view us as intelligent. I'm sure aliens would have a interest in us but they'd never see us a equals.

Solar

The industrial revolution was well under way before we discovered the true utility of fossil fuels. If they had never existed, things would have progressed more slowly, but still in the same direction.

I saw a video that summed up in ’no dry land=no fire=no metal=no electricity=no space’. I believe that life can appear in a large variety of places and do its best, but maybe one in a million planet gas the conditions to raise a space civilization.

​@@franck3279 They could probably melt metal in hot enough sea vents or do stuff above the water's surface if they could stand it.

@@nilo70 You cannot get to solar until you have fossil fuels and the society that fossil fuels can support.

That doesn't really apply in galaxy

I don't think that's gonna happen mostly because when humanity becomes a true interstellar civilization, the chances of humanity going extinct would dwindle to zero. At best, humanity might forget that we were the first but at the end of the day we would still be around.

I can't wait to leave all sorts of esoteric artifacts and cryptic, unintuitive puzzles for our temporal successors. That'll teach 'em not to be late to the party.

@@aaroncabatingan5238 how would we forget just KZfaq it

@@aaroncabatingan5238 while I agree that a spacefaring humanity will most likely not be able to fully go extinct, it's certainly possible that the future humanity will be so varied in cultures, languages and knowledge, that after a couple millions of years and billions of lighyears of distance to the pioneers that they have little to no understanding of the artifacts left by their forefathers. Imagine coming across the remains of a, for lack of better terms, fully alien civilization, with no way to translate their writings and understand the meanings behind their monuments. We already have these issues with cultures barely thousands of years removed from us, so imagine how hard it would be for humans from different galaxies to understand eachother.

what makes you think ours is the civilization that is forerunner likely we blow ourselves up, THERE IS NO WAY we are going to survive adolescent man...not a chance. We will be as forgotten as neanderthals

Like this opportunity society spin off?

Pseudoscience very shortly. We no nothing about other Civilizations (although arguably the only thing we know that we aren't visited yet) The rest of that paper is purest pseudoscience.

I have a feeling in however many years, dark energy and dark matter will be on that list like the ether is now.

@@ExternusArmy Dark Energy and MAtter is just a placeholder for unknown things tho, the ehter was an idea of something more specific with a certain purpose etc. Dark Energy and Dark Matter are things we can not fully explain or detect, but hypothesize something or another must be there in order to explain what we know. Yet remain unknown.

@@iron_side5674 Haha, no, it has become way more than that.

why do you see no reason? there may be older civilizations in the universe than mankind. Thats hubris to believe that humans are the center of the universe and there can be no civilization more advanced. theres really know way of knowing that. We must always be open minded to possibilities

@@spenser6353 We are technically the center of our universe. There's a perfectly spherical area we can observe and we are in the center of that sphere. There's no proof anything beyond that exists.

@@volos_olympus absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

If their planet has mars gravity and thus they can access space easier?

Dude I know this is good content even now as an adult

LMAO

Imagine we are just part of some space nature preserve, the aliens just looking at our landfills and being like "Isn't nature beautiful". After all to a sufficiently advanced civilization we are just some reasonably smart animals.

Just because you don't understand or agree with science doesn't mean it comes up with ridiculous bullshit like whatever you're sarcastically proposing

@@Exquailibur that's almost as ridiculous of an assumption to make. "Reasonably smart animals" yeah even disregarding our very non-animal technology, we do not have the same relationship to aliens that animals have to us. Not at all. Not even analogous.

@@joshyoung1440 Bro we are animals by definition so our technology isn't non-animal. We also dont know what our relationship to aliens will be, and it would depend on the aliens. How aliens view us will be alien, Even things as simple as whether they see us as worth preserving will vary based on culture and biology. But the main thing is that I was making an amusing joke so whining at me is kind of in poor taste.

I agree with this, evolution doesn't favor technology or consciousness. Most life will probably be animalistic in some way and human-like technology will be extremely rare. 500 Million years away to meet them sounds reasonable.

@@LANeverSleeps “evolution doesn’t favor technology or consciousness” this statement is unverifiable because as a scientific community we haven’t yet defined what “consciousness” actually is.

@Joseph Williams He didn't claim it to be a scientific statement just an observation anyone can make: intelligent life only appeared around a hundred thousand years ago, but that's only tiny fraction of the time complex life have existed on the planet, having plenty of opportunities to evolve. But it didn't, despite life already existing. The overwhelming majority of lifeforms that we know of only follow the natural life cycle: born, grow, reproduce and die. They spent literal billions of years doing just that. Taking that into account, the statement "evolution doesn't favor technology or consciousness" sounds quite possible. All indications point towards life being common, but intelligence being rare.

It’s probably better if it has no life and we terraform the planet. Unfortunately a planet which already supports and has simple life is filled with all kinds of microscopic death that we are immune to none of and wouldn’t be for possibly many generations.

My best guess is that humans won't ever escape the solar system. The beings that will escape our solar system into interstellar space will be so specialized that it won't be recognizable as human anymore.

You should pin this.

Almost every channel seems to be experiencing this. Very weird that KZfaq can't seem to stop it, considering the text of them is always identical, saying you've won a prize or something.

KZfaq has made it abundantly clear they don't care about scammers profiting off their users. This is a problem that was solved years ago elsewhere (including in other Google products). KZfaq does not even do the absolute minimum to put a stop to this.

Some person came in as @OfficialPBSSpaceTime and tried to get a screenshot of the reply they made to my comment. I was excited for a good 10 min before I saw this comment. Thanks guys **UPDATE** So they would ask you to take a screenshot of the reply they made on you comment. Then they will ask you to chose a box on telegram. I didn't go past that cause I don't want to compromise myself any more but stay vigilant kids. Ask a lot of questions. Make sure they are physics based but with typos and can't be guessed or researched easily. The guy got confused and pushed hard to have me follow his instructions. Clearly a faker

Yes, I've noticed this on a few KZfaq accounts that I comment on - a bot pretending to be the content creator claims I have won a prize or special advice or some such and to contact them via a certain way.

My main criticism about most of this stuff is that it's not scientific. The principles are taken outside context and then still assumed to be functional, and more than that, it's used to build secondary speculation.

@@vulcwen I'm really not sure what you mean by scientific. In what context is the Copernican principle functional and scientific to you?

@@vulcwen Perhaps not experimentally so, but it is a strong thought experiment. Haven't seen such thought architecture before

@@vulcwen Most models like this are woven from abstract assumptions. There is no need for anything to exist according to our intuition, so we make assumptions to essentially narrow the scope of potential results (and to make the math easier). The issue with this hypothesis is that we really can't get any results for millions of years. It still uses scientific principles of logic and reason, but it lacks a means of punctual confirmation to make it worthwhile.

Yeah, this model really assumes earth *must* be temporally typical, and so any scenario in which it is possible for it not to be has to be contrived to make it so. Why isn't it enough to say "either we're early or we're normal"? What's so special about being typical that everything has to be contrived to make humanity in particular ununique?

Based solely on guesses and made up and untestable information. Doesn't sound like science to me.

Yes! Going along: Yup, mmhhmm, okay, BULLSHIT METER PEGGED!!!! The speed of light is horrifyingly slow, so expanding at the speed of light isn't going to get you anywhere very quickly.

lol

Science has been like this for the past 100 years or so.

On the other hand, the reification of mathematical models could see the replacement of science with scientism. Mathematical models are simply mechanical devices that produce "results" depending on the assumptions, inputs, and rules applied. Or, in technical (😉) terms: GIGO. You cannot draw statistical inferences from a sample of one. You can, however, draw up a model of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin given certain assumptions about the nature of angels and the size and shape of pinheads. Modern science began with ridiculing this approach, and yet here we are replicating it in a more sophisticated fashion. The so-called "appearance rate" is the equivalent of speculating on the properties of angels. There is a lot of this about, leading some to speculate that we are entering, or even have entered, a new dark age. Mathematical models are heuristic devices that merely allow you to backward check whether your assumptions and interpretations fit the available evidence. They do not describe external reality, and it is a category error to think that they do or to use them as if they do. However, it was an interesting video, as entertainment, and the paper described also sound interesting, _as entertainment_ .

It's reasonable to think that existing life might have "absorbed space" or outcompeted any newer life that may have later emerged, but it's also plausible that an inhabited planet covered with all sorts of simple and complex organic reactions is more adept at producing new life than any sterile environment. If that's the case, then the fact that all life on earth came from a common ancestor and therefore only arose once, even though it may have been easier for life to arise afterward, lends support to the "life is absurdly rare" suggestion of the rare earth hypothesis.

@@alecbader7433 It is possible that life has emerged billions of times on Earth in the last four billions of years, and was snuffed out each time by existing life. What reason do we have to not think this happens?

@@TristanCleveland Well, a lack of any chemical or fossil evidence, as well as no observations of it currently unfolding. But you're right that it's possible.

Once self replicating molecules that can be air or water born form, there is no longer any realistic chance for that same process to start again independently somewhere else in the same environment. The same is true for even more successful forms of self replicating structures, all the way until what we would call life. Within the confines of a planet, it is practically impossible for life to form more than once, because the first one to form prevents it. If that's true more largely, then it means we are the first within the feasibly reachable domain of this galaxy/cluster/universe.

@@eventhisidistaken Why would that be the case? Life must have arose from more than a single kind of molecule in any given environment anyway, right?

We all naturally want to be the best, everyone will end up with some definition of that.

Let’s grab this bag baby

Of course the Alien Schoolgirl wants us to be the grabby alien. 🧐

Based on our current technology, I don't think humans will be grabby that encompasses an entire galaxy or even multiple galaxies because of VR technology. Once we know how to replicate / transfer our counsciousness into virtual worlds, colonizing an entire galaxy seems futile. Inside a vietual world, you can do anything, be a god or create your own worlds and stories + immortality. I think gaming in the far future would be something like that, where AI can crafts us worlds and even stimulate reincarnation every playthrough meaning you won't get bored even if you have immortality.

@@user-mp3eh1vb9w Interesting, but I guess one of the points of being the grabby aliens first is to not be destroyed by the grabby aliens that may arise. Even with virtual reality, brain simulation etc you should still need some sort of physical form handling it. You just transposed the problem with the device handling it as the body of the human race and the simulation its brain but then we can consider this a life form that is vulnerable to grabby aliens. Saying this I'm thinking of something funny, we could then become the grabby alien with the simulation as a hive mind controlling robotic bodies

that wouldnt be as exciting as encountering a more advanced civilization. Humans have not been good at meeting new less advanced societies. It usually leads to extermination or slavery

I think we are the first, and I believe we must strive to become the alpha and omega, we may be able to avoid the universe having to blip out of existence if we make enough progress.

I look at the world of today and believe we are firmly in option one. Think avatar but with real militarized industrial complexes to back up our expansions

If there are no ancient aliens then we will be the aliens. Get it.

I really like 1 Lets be xenophobic

We can be all 3, just at different time periods.

I have the idea that aliens decide not to live around stars. They collect energy and move into the intergalactic void.

@@kryptiqk2141 They wouldn't all do that, you can't expect entities of that of that number to act monolithically like that, at the very least some would like to live around stars for the heck of it, and there's no reason to not live around stars

Nice thought but don't discount the possibility that [for now] we are completely alone.

The issue here is that it's highly unlikely such a civilization wouldn't still emit infrared light in amounts we could detect.

@@kryptiqk2141 That's unlikely, as stars are both the most easily available energy sources and even if you have methods of energy generation that don't rely on stars, you'll still be relying on mass... which is again found mostly in stars.

But wouldn’t alien that evolve differently have a different view on how to space travel maybe even different material can be found in other part of the universe

@@indogen2198 while yes, they may have different ways of thinking and views, they would most likely still think in a few of the ways we do because certain things only have one answer. There's no situation where 2+2 is equal to anything other than 4, and the same goes for a lot of things, so most likely they would have to think in similar ways to us simply because neither of us have any other way to think. Of course, they may have differing views elsewhere, but they would still have a similar way of thinking.

@@oatmealman1586 interesting let’s hope your theory is right because if it’s not then we would have no way of understanding each other if something as important as math or physics is understood differently, also we must not forget that we human might still not have discovered everything in filed such as physic which might put other species in a big advantage

@@oatmealman1586 you can only assume that the methods of space travel available to current human knowledge is the only method. A more advanced civilization may have discovered methods not even thought of on earth. We cant have so much hubris to think humans have mastered the mysteries of the universe.

​@@spenser6353 but you also need to put into account the fact that our method to go to space is the best method in respect of many metric of obstacles, limitations, and constraints for example: "why don't we use a more advanced form of non rocket space launch as opposed of using our rocket-based conventional method?" the answer would be: "because in respect of obstacles, limitations, and constraints in the form of economic, physical, political, technological, sociological complications, things like such are just not feasible enough" the same can be said to these so called aliens with 'more advanced space launch technology' for something that humanity can achieve by using a tech that works by burning things through chemical combustion (rocket essentially is just that) in which in itself is something that derived from one of humanity's earlier invention (we invented fire from chemical combustion since prehistoric times), probably going to be able to be achieved in a far more easier manner compared to whatever more advanced technology the aliens needs to be able to escape their planet's atmosphere chances are, your more advanced civilization going to achieve better non space-related tech, since our technological progress going to diverge with them in respect to the civilizations respective environment

You didn't watch the video did you? What Arthur says was based on Copernicus's Assumption (explained in the video) that we mustn't think ourselves/universe as special or the center of universe, if our civilization can exists then there should be others, hence what Arthur's Quote if we didn't find anyone its either this universe is empty or they already being destroyed so long ago (which are terrifying). Meanwhile the assumption used in the video, the reason we cannot find anyone else was because we looked too early, which means there are still chances (we are not at the stage where Arthur's assumption comes to reality yet)

@@coasttoaster7675 tf? I watched the video. I am merely quoting. And yes I dd watch and know about all the statistics, but you forget basic math. There are ONLY 2 options. We are alone, or we are not. This is talking about right now. Not thinking about the future or the past. In the future, obvously alien species will exist and probably already have. I am not posting humanity up on some celestial pedestal that we are so special and must be the only ones that will ever exist. I am saying, and the quote is too, that RIGHT NOW, at this very moment, there are only TWO options. We are CURRENTLY the only civilization in the universe, or we are not. You can't deny that, it is mathematical fact, It's 50/50. Yes or no. You can't say "we are not at the stage where Arthur's assumption comes to reality yet." ?????? How can we not be at a stage where a 50/50 chance is not reality? You are denying the probability of a coin flip. I did watch the video, you just don't understand the quote.

I find the idea that we are alone is far more depressing than the other idea.

@@sudmuck it's defiantly depressing, but I guess the only good thing that would come from that outcome is we wouldn't have to worry about being wiped out by aliens. We could basically do whatever we want. But again it'd be so lonely :(

@@sudmuck Humanity isn't alone. Most of us have pets.

Or perhaps there are many hospitable planets, but just not a lot of intelligent life, therefore grabby aliens choose to colonize non-intelligent life planets instead, thus intelligent life like us never "meet" other alien species until we're space-faring themselves and other aliens consider us ready. Can you guys imagine the religions of the world, the panic, when alien starships decloak above in Earth's atmosphere?

@@BD-np6bv That is the point made in the hard step paper. That such aliens with a prime directive would actually still stifle intelligent life when talking cosmic scales. As they would take over on planets that could have spawned intelligent life given another 100-500k years. They argue that life would arise on a bell curve and the odd planet in the universe with fewer hard steps to intelligence would on a cosmic scale spread so fast they would stifle life across their chunk of the universe. Its an interesting thought and dilemma imagine humans in 10,000 years looking at a planet that could barely support life we may say we can colonize here we aren't displacing anyone... but who are we to say that in another billion years life wouldn't make the steps required there. Early species (and we may be early) would probably not even consider that life could gain intelligence in what they would see as hard environments.

You guys seem to forget something: The further away we look, the more into the past, we also look. Imagine we identified a planet in the habitable zone some 500 million light years away... In those 500 million years light takes to travel to us, some civilization might have already risen and fallen (hey there, warmongers in east and west!) and we would not know of any of that. So even if there were "grabby civilizations", they would have the same problem. Detection and travel time being so long, that they could as well travel to some random planets in the habitable zone, not caring what state it is currently in.

@@ruffianeo3418 Lots of good sci fi there. Which show was it. Defiance I think it was... where that was basically the premise. That a Alien civ whos planet was dying decided earth was habitable but devoid of intelligent life. So they set all their ark ships to earth. Got here and discovered us... wars and colonization ensue.

dark forest theory is flawed at the very core, that is, agressive super-hi-tech civilization simply can't exist.

Yep . . . and as his t-shirt clearly illustrates, it's never aliens . . . and it never will be.

Yes, they may have religious zealots who keep burning libraries and setting them back to the Stone Age 🙄

@Alexander Diogenes, why would the process of life forming being difficult make us more likely to be early? The assumption in this paper is the Copernican principle: that regardless of the process that creates civilizations like ours, we are uniformly distributes among those civilizations. The reason this paper concludes we are likely not alone is because that conclusion would not explain our earliness, but the Grabby Aliens hypothesis would.

Even if only one civilization in a galaxy became advanced enough to travel between the stars, there would still be a huge number of such civilizations. And it's possible that for every advanced civilization that is capable of traveling between the stars, there are still many others that either stay within their solar system due to the vast distances between the stars, or that for whatever reason never venture into space, but still have an advanced civilization on their own world. We're still technologically young, and have been searching for other civilizations in the galaxy for a short time. We're really just beginning to get instruments powerful enough to begin taking a closer look at worlds we've only just discovered in the last 30 years. And with the huge distances involved between the stars, any civilizations that may have developed within the last 100,000 years, their signatures and signals may still be enroute. Even a civilization a few hundred light years from Earth would not have received any signals from Earth. We still have a long way to go before we really know if there are others out there.

That's called "The Great Filter," the idea that most races and civilizations die out or destroy themselves before they become spacefaring empires.

I don't think that makes any sense. There are literally trillions of planets, at the very least there has to be more than one species that managed to reach intelligence advanced life. Humans aren't unique in my opinion.

We only have a sample size of one so you can’t say that there’s at least one other advanced species exists when the chance of them appearing may be infinitesimally close to zero

​​​@@olivercharles2930 i feel pretty confident in saying that we are most likely the only truly inteligent species in existance. While there are an almost uncountable amount of planets how many of those meet the believed criteria for life? An incredibly small amount, of the tiny amount of planets that exist in the goldilocks zone how many have liquid h2o or oxygen rich atmospheres.....even less. When we start talking about JUST the planets that could hold life we are looking at a nigh zero chance and then you have to through the formation of cells, plant life, other complex life and the eventual beginning stages of sentience.....yeah no we are most likely the only intelligent species in the universe. Think about how many others creatures existed on our planet before us and now think about how many of them achieved any form of true intelligence...just us humans and our deceased genetic cousins from billions of years of life....just us

​@@olivercharles2930 Trillions of planets but what if each hard step is like one in trillion-trillion? And if there's like 20 hard steps. The closest other technological civ can easily be not just far outside our galaxy but far beyond the cosmological horizon..

We actually don't know the age or size of the universe, even the visible one. Our CLOSEST guess has a margin of error plus or minus 59 million years. 59 million years ago, the planet was still recovering after the asteroid extinction event, and in 59 million years from now, we may as well have traveled to every star in our entire galaxy. Remember, the diameter of our galaxy is only 100,000 light years across, and CURRENT technology has been able to push an unmanned probe fast enough to cross our entire galaxy in less than 170 million years. 170 million sounds like a lot until you realize you can send 2, one in each direction, and suddenly it's only 85 million years... using 2018 technology. Its still a lot closer to the 59 million margin of error. Point is, 59 million years is a MASSIVE margin for error when in the perspective of a species that would be unrecognized in that time frame.

Watch enough casually, over many years, and you may end up more educated than some with degrees

Broad knowledge, rather than specialized

6:33

Like the "Boltzmann brain" thought experiment. Anything could pop into existence, assuming certain quantum physics theories are correct. But the odds are so small, it could take trillions of years to happen and only happen in one place in the entire universe.

One of the simulation (reality is a simulation) Hypotheses suggests we might be just a thought or a dream of a Boltzmann brain. 😂

A paradox is not an impossibility, it's just a problem that hasn't been solved yet. If we survive long enough as a species, our decedents may yet find the correct answer to the Fermi paradox. We just don't have access to enough hard data, to do that now.

Knowing the age of the universe, it seems more likely there are older, much older races out there. The real issue is how vast the universe is, a race in another galaxy will most likely never get here, there are just too many other destinations to consider. In our galaxy, we still must conquer vast distances to visit another race, and just like us that takes time, effort and resources. Are we worth the trouble for a more advanced civilization to bother? Of all places in the solar system we might find life, just small simple life, it’s probably under the ice on Europa, but we haven’t busted our hump to get there and find it, too expensive, too much trouble to get there and look. When and if we do, finding simple life on Europa will have a very small payoff. Some great knowledge, but no real cash return on our investment. Galactic aliens face similar problems coming to see us. It may be just not worth the effort?

I am still wondering why most of the videos of this type, which contemplate development of life on not Earth planets, generally fail to comment on one of the MOST FUNDAMENTAL reasons that there is and can be life on Earth: Our planet has a magnetic field, produced by the spinning Iron core. I find it quite improbable that, regardless of Star type, any planet can sustain Life without this one thing.

Why do you feel that one is more probable than the other?..

@@SineEyed The chance that we accidentally fail to clean equipment, or one day decide to just choose to do sth for an experiment or whatever, is knowable and infinitely greater. In fact, we've already spottet accidental bacterial contamination on the hull of the ISS for example. We have life on earth, so the only requirement for spreading it is merely for that to happen - there's a lot more factors going into life independently forming elsewhere.

It depends on how we spread. Slower then light? Yah, we have a lot of room to spread by building space stations and trying to terraform planets or moons. Maybe even make it to a planet that humans can live on at slower then light if we figure out colony ships in the form of generation or cryogenic. If we discover some way to do FTL? I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Star Trek moment and aliens show up within hours or days of us "breaking the light barrier" the first time. Also, we humans tend to be so humanoid centric. There very well could be intelligent life out there that is nothing like us.

I'm a pessimist so I think we will either: 1. Obliterate ourselves with nukes and biological weapons before we learn lightspeed travel. 2. Or drain our planet of water and crops and die of starvation.

@@TomCruz54321 why is this even a reply to me writing "we might not clean a rover enough eventually"

First maybe but definitely not going to be the last.

If you're first, it's not lonely, you just get a massive advantage. An early civilization would be impossibly powerful for any newer civilizations to usurp.

it seems our understanding of the age of the Universe is actually quite wrong and this is still the very early stage(of what might be a cycle) and thus we are still billions and trillions and quadrillions and quintillions of years ahead of future civilizations

@@mjflit I guess, if your goal is exploitation and not exploration. If there's nobody to meet, no community to join, no civilizations or cultures to connect with, it's just infinite rocks and balls of frozen gas.

@Buzás András I like that.

"there must be things that we're missing in the standard model but it's as correct as it can be until we find out about something more to our universe." we already know that both our best theories for understanding the universe - the Standard cosmological model and the Standard model of particle physics are both incomplete and inaccurate in some very important aspects and we do not know yet how to combine them together into one single theory.

Hey, did you reply to the “you’re a winner“ message on telegram? I’ve been approached like that before and it was a scam. Thanks

That’s going on the List of Things to Tell H.P. Lovecraft if we get time travel. Along with: Africans are the only pure blooded humans, the entire AI thing, quantum mechanics, & space

@@jocylinfrancis930 lol that and show him some rick and morty. honestly that show does existential terror like none other.

@@jocylinfrancis930 The out of africa model is disputed at best and would not be an argument for race mixing which he was against. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15878780/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23124308/ Also "Africans are the only pure blooded humans" is an incredibly racist statement.

Come on why are you still so racially childish. So go f-- your sister.

I mean, that is what will happen. Same with that they will show up VERY quickly after we break the "light barrier" in any way shape or form. Well maybe not going through a natural worm hole if they exist and we can indeed get through them. But, it really stands to reason that any civilization with FTL (and other higher tech) will be peaceful. They all would have planet busting tech and well; that makes war a bit insane. --But, humanity still goes to war so, IDK.

"aliens!" "no, wait, YOU'RE the aliens!"

The assumption comes from Statistics as mentioned in the video. It is statistically safest to assume we are sitting at the height of the bell curve in any situation. Which would mean a large chunk of civs started long before us. We may be first, it is just a lot less likely than us being in the middle of the pack.

Even in our relatively short technological evolution from hunter gatherers to modern civilization taking baby steps into space, there was many setbacks that hindered our development thousands of years. Natural disasters, wars, pandemics, persecution. It wasn't one straight line of steady accumulation of knowledge. That could mean that even if two identical earths were born at the same time in different parts of the universe, and humans had the same "starting point", it would only take the absence of one of such events to potentially make one earth significantly more advanced than the other, simply because they didn't lost knowledge and/or they didn't "waste" time.

@@moteroargentino7944 persecution, not "prosecution" unless you have something against lawyer

Cap

@@jambonmusical2689 My bad. Fixed.

Lolz. But we arent...

Universe be like "Be gentle, it's my first time"

@@nokta7373 ayo what? 🤨📸

@Cosmic Soup The much sadder and more probable idea is that space travel will never be possible outside extreme local space like our solar system and this is the same all over the universe meaning that no matter how many civilizations rise none will ever meet or know of the existence of others.

@@deadwingdomain And you know this how?

How are they looking back in time at us if Andromeda and the milky way are on a collision course with one another? Does time move in different directions and it matches up at the collision? Wouldn't whether we are looking back in time in reference to the stars depend on which direction you are looking?

@@270eman Light doesn't travel instantly, it has a finite speed. The andromeda galaxy is so far away it takes light 2.5 million years to reach it at that speed, which means an observer from andromeda will see light that left earth 2.5 million years ago and only just finally reached andromeda. As a result they are looking back in time when they observe the earth/milky way

Of course all the steps are hard. Evolution wants better. Or the sun's radiative changes want better.

From our perspective it seems hard.. But we also haven't evolved to thrive in those conditions. I just don't think we have any right to say that an ice covered ocean with volcanic activity beneath is hard for life, and that will probably become more clear once we start exploring some of these moons.

@@stormevans6897 You’re right that we’ll see (hopefully), but from a biochemistry perspective, volcanic activity provides many, many orders of magnitude less energy input than solar radiation, which means much less chemistry going on as a whole. So it’s not life-extinguishing, but it’d be a far greater challenge for evolution to progress past single-celled.

@@fluorotoluene It amazes me how often people just blithely propose alternate biospheres or even anatomical chemistries with a 'we don't know, could be the case' as an all-purpose excuse for lazy speculating. Life requires energy. If your proposal of other forms of life doesn't explain HOW the biosphere is getting energy, it's worthless. If your proposal for energy is 50% that of Earth -- or the not even 1% of volcanic activity -- then you need to adjust your evolutionary timelines.

@@maltheopia: You appear to be responding to someone else. I was commenting solely on Earth - with a dim view towards the prospects for ice-shell life - and then responding to someone who obliquely referenced Europa/Enceladus/etc.

We technically are tho, yet very limited and primitive.

thats great little buddy

Habitbl

@@tuneboyz5634 why are you condescending xd

habibi. LOL ur profiel avatar

@@lucar.5045 "Habitbl" sounds like the name of some ancient Aztec god of suitable living conditions.

Yeah. We're only about 2 or 3 million years into the time frame where we could develop. To be earlier would basically require our ancestors to magically learn about fire and cooking, and be pro-settling down... which is anti-human nature in a right as we were getting to becoming modern humans... Beyond that... there is F stars which make up 3% of all stars and should develop faster than us which means that if they hit upon every lucky event we did, they'd develop before us, but by how much i don't know. You'd have to ask someone who understands how the mutation rate of an organism is affected by sustained increased radiation. I'd saying "up to 500m years" ahead of us, but I'd guess much lower... My guess with F stars is that they can support advanced life, but are unlikely to develop Intelligent life or they are cutting it very close to the cut off point to the point where a intelligent species would have just enough time to realize how boned they are.

1st generation stars couldn't have life around them anyway, few to no heavy elements. Second generation stars might have had too little for high life probability. Sure it wouldn't take too many millions of years after the first stars to start getting heavy elements, but it can take quite a while to accumulate appreciable amounts, especially enough to facilitate complex life on the long term. It makes sense to me that we may well be early.

@@NATIK001 Problem 1 how does life emerge. Problem 2 what's the chance of hyper intelligent life like us to emerge. I would say both are close to 0

@@chozer1 you're making the assumption that we're "hyper intelligent"

@@keyboardt8276 Actually there is a factor for judging intelligence. Intelligence costs energy, a lot of it. It is like a computer running pac man vs one running Microsoft flight simulator. The second needs far more processing, and that can't be as energy cheap as pac man. The battery dies far sooner. This is one reason intelligence is considered possibly rare. Intelligence for the sake of it is a fuel gobbler that threatened survival. Intelligence has to enhance survival aspects. That's why I also expect it to follow the predator line. Eating grass doesn't require much smarts. But since the brain is a computer, we can predict the energy requirements of smarter brains. So unless their world is made of super food, there will be limits.

and surviving several mass extinction cataclysms. great oxygination, great dying, chixculub, volcanoes, snowball earth ice ages, etc.

My answer is humans are so stupid/silly/arrogant that aliens are just avoiding us to not deal with our BS.

My answer has been "why do we think they are leaking radio waves?" Because radiowaves have only existed on earth for less than 100 years and we are already figuring out quantum mechanics. Who is to say in 100 years we don't invent radioless communication. What if radio is only a stepping stone and by searching for radio we are only looking for aliens within 100 years of our own level of technology. Seriously.

@@ub3rfr3nzy94 good point they could be using communication tech that our species and tech is to primative detect or understand.

My answer has always been that we're long in contact with aliens and some people in power who "know what's best" for -themselves- the world are making sure to keep it a secret.

That basically implies the theory that the great filter is behind us. That there is some difficult or improbable step in our development that other systems didn't experience.

Our industrialization supports that hypothesis. Billions of years for evolution Millions to master fire hundreds of thousands to master civilization thousands for significant technological progress hundreds of industrialization. If the trend continues, one can see how million year old light reaching our galaxy is absolutely insufficient and dangerously misleading to show us what is "really" out there right now in this minute.

@@flyingchimp5012 Lack of evidence of existence doesn't prove non-existence. I agree. But the video says that lack of evidence of existence may be evidence of existence, so I repeat (using different words): one must be very smart to say something that stupid with a straight face.

Personally, whenever theoretical models such as these are cooked up, it brings psychohistory to mind.

I mean they aren't really alone, there were many animals

But doesn't an alien race appear in later books?

@@djdoc06 but given long time spans in the books. They are kinda like another species by the time they return. I watched few summaries on youtube though, bit it is on my list for reading.

What if we're the result of colonization, from a forerunner civilization

If you search "Grabby aliens" on KZfaq and watch the video from Rational Animations, he goes into greater depth with the calculations.

The reason they don't give a hard number is because if you look at the evolutionary record and human development timeline... evolution of intelligence is pretty much a guaranteed thing... however human level intelligence and civilization is essentially throwing some dice and happening to happening to get super charged from the results of going into controversial territories. There is just a lot of stupid luck that resulted in modern humans that are more or less happen stance within a niche situation. For example, we need to be able to work with tools which requires us to stand upright which we only do because we evolved in a environment that became deforested and tall grass took over which had to have a climatic reason for changing, but it had to change from a pretty dense forested area to forest and savanah area... and we have to develop from creatures that need to find advantage from grasping things at least part of the time and on and on... Then you realize that's all before you account for fire usage and cooking which we can see there is a long separation between the two... and thats before you get into how long it took for humans to become settlement dwellers... And then once that happens you then have to account for Rome and several other empires coming about that turned away from developing further and becoming anti-new technologies... and then once you get past all that you still have to account for all the chances off destroying ourselves or preventing ourselves from leaving our planet which we haven't gotten through all of yet and teetering very close to the edge of them... When I was figuring this all out long ago for this stuff, anything I could think of that would stunt a creature/civilization from advancing to the stars the stars i gave 50/50 shot to even though they are probably much lower chances. I came to the answer that there should be a space faring civilization for every 500 light years of space. And that number is not accounting for time disparity between when a civilization could arise to fill that space... but if I were to give it a mathematic answer... Gstars are 25% of all stars and we developed around 2 million years ago and if you just use all the time for 500 million years even though I'm sure there's less time than that for complex organism to exist you'd come to answer something like there is 500 million years, for at least 25% of the possibility, for a space fairing civilization to arise in a 500 light year bubble. Even if you don't consider FTL or near Light velocity a thing or even 50% light velocity... we're talking a 1 in 500 million probability that the first space fairing civilization will be the only space fairing civilization in their region space that they can get to, especially for a species like us who have stupidly jumped the IQ curve by quite a lot. That is not to say we won't find other intelligent life out there if we get out there, but they will not be space fairing. They will be at various points throughout our history up to and including those points that could befall us, like running out of resources to rebuild their civ after some massive break down. They could be millions of years technologically superior to us, yet unable to reach space... and that's only accounting for G class stars... The class of stars on either side of us have shorter/longer spans than us and should equally advance at faster/slower paces so those are interesting to consider too, but they should skew too much for them to be as readily predictable as what would stunt them from becoming space fairing or enhance them. All I know is, based on what I see and how stupidly unlikely it is for us to have certain events happen to us, as pointed out before, we're super early in history and the reason we won't see many other space fairing civs is because they exist either in the future or very far away... unless we hit another improbability of them being right next door... in which case that starts to, if it hasn't already, what they heck is happening to make us get this improbably "lucky".

@@Durakken i dont think they'd at any point during human history, they'd be before or after it. It took us 2mil from hunter gatherers to now, while it took 500mil years from the emergence of "intelligent" predators to now. If we assume their evolutionary path isnt totally different, intelligence will need a long time to evolve.

Yeah, and this video is a bit too close to Rational Animations''. And Isaac Arthur did one last month too.

@@harpfully It's honestly not close at all. RA's video was about the practical process by which a civilization could spread across the universe. This video was about the implications that has on our observations and place in history.

@@harpfully I mean come on you can't expect them not to talk about this

Define long term ?

@@Eris123451 Undefined. It could be thousands to trillions or years.

Well, if we kill everything humanity cant die from a alien

Aye. SFIA has a nice few expansions on the idea.

@@bobdrooples second this

Rational Animations did a great episode on grabby aliens a few months back

@@Phriedah yes that was my introduction. The recent one 'tutorial to take over the universe' was epic too. ❤️

Have you seen Isaac Arthur's video on it? kzfaq.info/get/bejne/otKDZ9eZx8DPlGQ.html

Uh, I’d recommend Children of time. Good book, similar vibe of what you want but not exactly, then there’s children of ruin after which is also quite interesting

@@fiji9389 huh, yeah, that's close. Thank you, maybe these'll be the very first books I'll read in English.

several. In one the humans testing the world were suddenly presented with alians to judge whether humans were to be allowed to settle there.

And that is the beauty of chance and evolution. It all falls so neatly together all by the luck of the mutation of maybe a single gen in a single cell

Until the Tyranids gets to us

Free real estate for everyone

@@majorhumbert676 well ... then we fight .. FOR THE EMPEROR!!!

@@Chestyfriend Grab the Conestoga starships, SOONERS! 😂

that wouldnt be as cool as encountering a more advanced civilization. Humans have not been good at meeting new less advanced societies. It usually leads to extermination or slavery

Mr. J.M. , Some of the authors assumptions are NOT correct ; particularly in regards to planetary evolution . Firstly ; terrestrial planets do not stay geologically active, and thus ecologically viable, in perpetuity . The mechanisms which generate internal heat weaken and die out over time , eventually sterilizing the ecologies and rendering the planets barren . Secondly , the host stars' rotations slow drastically over time , this engendering tidal-forces which lower the planets' orbits until they eventually reach their Roche Limits , disintegrating and being consumed by their stars . *.Planets unfortunately, have seriously limited lifespans . They definitely do not live forever .

JM, the paper does take into account this possibility. But this possibility would not explain why our civilization is so early in the universe which is what this paper attempts to explain. I would consider it to be very unlikely that there is some invisible barrier around all solar systems. In an earlier episode, Matt explains how with current technology, we could send small spacecraft out of the solar system to take pictures using our Sun to refract light. In millions of years, technology may be so unimaginably more advanced that colonizing another star may involve sensing a seed-sized nanobot to procreate there.

@@gavrielcohen5095 Mr. Cohen , In a million years mankind will either have evolved into a much more human form , or incinerated itself w/technology such as what you referenced .

Vaguely interesting, but so many assumptions it's pretty much worthless.

@@gavrielcohen5095 The invisible barrier around us is space. Once you start measuring distances in light years, the concept of constructing 'societies' across such distances becomes impossible. No colony would be a member of it's home world's sphere of influence, even for a little while. They'd just be wholly independent worlds from the day they were colonized, with no material trade, and only very difficult and slow communications. Societal drift would have kicked in long before the colony was even founded, due to the wildly different mode of living on a colony ship for decades, so the colony would never have any basis for relation with its home world, again from day one. Needless to say, this very much eliminates most of the potential incentives for the powers-that-be on a given world to pour the vast resources into a colonization effort that would be required. They have literally zero chance of any return on investment, ever. This would be as true for any alien species as it is for us. The only thing you'd be able to get from your colonies would be data (very slowly), and if relations sour, possibly an RKKV.

I mean, is it really bad if your civilization doesn't reach the stars? It doesn't have to mean that we're dead. It would be a gross simplification to assume that those grabby civilizations are necessarily completely hostile. There's already a lot of assumptions to get there. In fact, this model shows that the "'great filter hypothesis" is an antiquated way to work compared to the models we make today. Afawk, civilizations could be potentially eternal, or at least very, very long lived without having to leave their home system. We know very little.

@@Ezullof we do in fact have to get off planet. The sun will consume the earth eventually and we need to be able to move before that happens, that or move the earth itself.

@@Ezullof yeah, it's pretty bad. Those grabby aliens probably aren't going to stroll by our planet and leave it alone

That is if humanity is still thriving or even exists in 500,000,000 years. The typical dominant species, on our planet anyhow, averages 1,000,000 years before extinction. We are around 200,000 years old. A mere adolescent of dominant species. If we can't mature a bit and quit all the self-destructive behavior, we aren't likely to even reach that average, especially not 500 times that average.

Well, the idea of the Great Filter originates from Robin Hanson, the same primary author of this Grabby Aliens research!