What is the 'spike'? Raw facts about the watch market.

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Күн бұрын

What happened and what's really going on in the watch market.
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Пікірлер: 305

@simonassouline1230 10 ай бұрын

Oisin AKA “Lenny”! Bought his AP 26331 Chrono from BQ watches, Spencer Dryer! For $80,000 in December 2021! Is now worth $45K, exceptional and beautiful watch!

@Leo-yi8bb 10 ай бұрын

You forgot the most important factor: Inflation and Interest rates. Watch market (and other luxury goods) was basically parallel to the interest rates. If they stay high, the watch market will continue to go down and vice versa

@AnaInTh3Sky 10 ай бұрын

Ehh no, you forget that luxury goods and in particular watches are not regular investment assets, their sole purpose is to signal wealth and exclusivity and the people buying them need the product to be at least unattainable for most people. Why do you think watch brands have increased their prices so much? They need to keep up not only with inflation, but with top 5% wealth inflation. And god knows wealthy people have done well in these past couple years. You have to think of Rolex specifically as a currency, they have their own interest rate (production, distribution) and the real interest rate only partially affects the price their non/substitutable product.

@slide7132 10 ай бұрын

Thanks mate very compelling points.

@alanb1498 10 ай бұрын

Always love to see a dublin accent on u tube talking about watchs i admire

@AnaInTh3Sky 10 ай бұрын

@@CPARyan86 of course, that's why I said "only partially affects". Precisely because they affect Rolex as a company, it pushes them to raise prices accordingly, which makes Rolex deflation even more difficult. My point was: the main value of a Rolex is having one, it's a status symbol so the price will always be massively be influenced by whatever the retail price is. It's quite an interesting and unique extreme example of micro-economics, actually... very very few brands manage to achieve that status. I've did some research work on non-substitutable products in uni and it is actually fascinating.

@lettuce1305 10 ай бұрын

that's not true, firstly if inflation is high and cost of inputs are high, these luxury watch manufacturers would pass the cost to the consumers by raising prices, they simply won't cut retail prices and risk devaluing their brands, especially not Rolex. Also, in a high inflationary environment it is better to keep hard assets than cash in the bank, ask the people in Turkey and Lebanon if you don't believe me.

@alaingilbert7912 10 ай бұрын

Lenny’s last comment was just perfect. It really encapsulates the fact that it’s kind of strange that you have to explain the concept of spike and all things around it. I had a good laugh and really liked the use of some memorable extracts from one of my favorite movie, Jaws. Well done sir! 😂

@rumcoke9123 10 ай бұрын

related to the stock market. We are near all time highs still. Once the stock market corrects and stays down for a while, the watch market will feel it.

10 ай бұрын

Next weeks’ winning lottery numbers please. Just while you have the crystal ball out. Thanks in advance.

@CarlosAguila 9 ай бұрын

Oisin you're the man! Among your best productons.

@paulmcshea9469 10 ай бұрын

Why do people care about the price of their watches after they have bought them? I bought mine then couldnt care less about the "Watch Market". I bought the watches because I liked them and I will never sell them, that was always the plan buy it to keep for the rest of my life.

10 ай бұрын

You're rule for you. Nice. There are other humans on earth, you know.

@dcinlv3420 10 ай бұрын

Great vid and love the Jaws clips. The motives of anyone who re-sells luxury watches will continue to be questioned based on the conduct of some very visible and bad actors. Being a well informed consumer is always wise.

@HighHorsepower220 10 ай бұрын

As a Financial Planner who tracks the financial markets I see doom & gloom over the next 3 to 5 years. BRICS is forming thier own Currency, US Markets are crumbling, Interest rates still going higher, Credit Card debt has hit 1 Trillion for the first time in history, massive layoffs with Fortune 500 companies, etc... I see 99% of the watch market going DOWN at least another 20% to 30%, and thats the High end labels. Shitters will tank to almost nothing. I've got my eye on a few watches. Rolex, A Lange, Patek, etc... and will buy when we see more downside adjustments. No way do I see watches today holding their value. Many Rolex ADs will get fooked over the next few years. Flipping is dead for most. Watches are Assets, banks will actually use them as collateral against a Loan. Buy a watch because you Like it, but expect fluctuations in prices.

@AcmeRocket 10 ай бұрын

Sounds like you are the clairvoyant

@HighHorsepower220 10 ай бұрын

@@AcmeRocket Yes, that's what I do for a living as an Investment Advisor. I look back at history to learn what the Future holds. I made many comments about all the Hype back in 2021 & 2022 about this Tulip Mania faze of the watch market. I think Oison left out the Tons of FREE stimulus money that was being dished out by the Gov't. Any market that goes Parabolic (Hockey stick) is due for a correction. To anyone who traded Stocks or Futures this was blatantly obvious. Thats why I held off on my expensive watch purchases. A Rising tide lifts all boats, the same goes when the tide goes out. That's whats happening now. The same is happening in Venice with the Canals void of water. Wait till the next Housing crisis hits, its gonna make 2008 look like a walk in the park. The Global economics is rapidly changing. The US and UK will be hit hard.

@heiner71 10 ай бұрын

@@AcmeRocket, clearly clairvoyant. He probably also has a great portfolio he would like to sell you, so you can survive the doom & gloom that has been predicted for the last 2 or more years.

10 ай бұрын

Spike Monster 1

@papatriot9882 10 ай бұрын

Always entertaining when Lenny makes an appearance!

@Rocking70s 10 ай бұрын

Intelligent content as always, thank you!

@rp9253 10 ай бұрын

The watch market is dead and floating face down in a backyard pool. Unbelievable, but true 🍭

@ezdeezytube 9 ай бұрын

Don't be a lollipop sucker. I mean you do what you want with your money, but its drdrdrdropping

@Nexus.Achiles 8 ай бұрын

@@ezdeezytubedrop drop drop drop, and drop a little more.

@sozo26 8 ай бұрын

Take care and brush your hair

@menandtheirwatches5026 9 ай бұрын

Great summary and perspective Oisin. I’ll be in Venice this week and look forward to seeing many of the sights you’ve showcased. Thanks for the videos and great content. Cheers Mike

@meljames172 10 ай бұрын

Corrections in the financial markets have not yet run their course all asset classes will be impacted.. There are issues in the commercial real estate market, company bankruptcies are rising, and the interest rate rise cycle is yet to reach its peak. There is still a lot of surplus cash in the market from the bloated monetary activities of the world's central banks during COVID-19. Luxury markets have held up reasonably well during this period of uncertainty, but will not be immune forever.

10 ай бұрын

I need a shot of you slowly looking up at the camera.

@TheSuttdaddy 10 ай бұрын

Great video. Best analysis I’ve seen so far.

@davidhindle594chemicalman 10 ай бұрын

If you are a collector and you like watches, no matter what make, and you do not intend to sell them, who’s bothered if they lose, or gain money, not me.

@SkywalkerPaul 10 ай бұрын

Most "watch people" nowadays aren't real collectors. They are victims of marketing.

@davidhindle594chemicalman 10 ай бұрын

@@SkywalkerPaul they are called investors

@dannysimenauer5745 9 ай бұрын

Oisin, excellent unbiased analysis on the factors that influenced the spike and watch market prices. Out of curiosity, do you buy your watches, like the AP you are wearing in this video, from an AD or the grey market? I ask because I am wondering if you see more "hyped" models becoming more readily available from brands not named Rolex, like AP.

@In2Preppy 10 ай бұрын

Great having Lenny back. Would be interesting to hear you opinion on Rolex buying Bucherer and its consequences if any.

@christianpermann491 10 ай бұрын

The Spike is over, the bubble burst, the market crashed.... Just other wording and does not make too much difference in my opinion.... In the end KZfaq is all about clickbait isn't it?

@Maarten_official_account 10 ай бұрын

This is one of the best watch videos I've seen in a long long time 👍

@johnrafferty7972 10 ай бұрын

I love these style of videos Oisin! Thank you for this 🙏 absolutely excellent storytelling

@spikkyboy 10 ай бұрын

Interesting and I believe a correct description of what has occurred.

@daniell2217 10 ай бұрын

The Danish Tulip Bubble, 2020 style. The more things change…well, you know the rest.

@daniell2217 10 ай бұрын

Correct. Good catch. Dutch.

@samuelboonkhenglee8374 9 ай бұрын

Solid analysis 🎉 balanced unbiased view 👍🏼

@withRUfUS 10 ай бұрын

Thank You !!!

@darthsimon4393 10 ай бұрын

Oisin, great video and great explanation! I think you are spot on sir...

@dubhelix 10 ай бұрын

Love your take on the matter and style of video as always 🤌🏼

@gavinwhite9743 8 ай бұрын

Great perspective on the watch market. Enjoyed the production values too.

@ivanmejia6843 10 ай бұрын

Wow, almost 100k subs. Been a viewer since you´ve been at 1,000 subs in 2019.

@leebirtles332 10 ай бұрын

Me too. When Oisin only had one video listed, the Yachtmaster rodium.

@MrGMT1992 10 ай бұрын

Love to see Lenny back. Great video !

@beanybun6110 10 ай бұрын

Mega dealers in trouble - wouldn’t want to be holding their retail space right now. Will always be a market for high end and vintage watches. But the idea of the usual suspects competing with Rolex is absurd…

@davidhindle594chemicalman 10 ай бұрын

Are we trying to convince ourselves that the value of our watches is unchanged, maybe until you try to sell them. How much would the grey market give you for your AP ? At the moment ? Not what you paid for it, could that be because you may be able to to go into your Ad and buy one.

10 ай бұрын

A grey market dealer would offer me the same today for an AP as I paid before the spike. Holy miss the point, David. Sometimes, when I make these videos, I feel I’m driving the point home too much and too hard. It seems I’m not driving it hard enough. Seeing as guys like you are leaving comments like this.

@davidhindle594chemicalman 10 ай бұрын

@ if you like and enjoy watches, and the purchase of these items, the price should not mean anything to you. It’s the people who keep on about the value of their collections, and how the prices have risen, that has given rise to the hike in prices, as leaving your money in the bank has been a waste of time. So leaving the door open to investors. Plus we all know we are being shafted by the Ads, especially the grey market dealers, because there is no way on Gods earth that some of the prices asked will keep on being attainable. Are they ultimately going to be museum pieces that we will stare at in glass cases.

@Touyoujin 9 ай бұрын

Great breakdown to the whole situation, finally there is someone who could talk some sense, which most of the time is a hard pill to swallow for the mass, they would rather live in their own delusion than facing the truth

@headgroundsman1650 10 ай бұрын

A fine forensic analysis, and with the addition of Sir Leonard O'Malley AKA 'LENNY'......superb!.....in Lenny we trust......

@muntublackson4757 10 ай бұрын

BRAVO 👏🏿 BRAVO! The only articulate response to the noise

@frankthetank5013 10 ай бұрын

Great video! 👏

@BenNS1971 10 ай бұрын

Great video!! Loved Lenny’s last comment

@dannysimenauer5745 9 ай бұрын

Oisin, if you know who the grey marketers are (at 19:31 in this video) that sold fake Rolex Pepsi's after the spike, please call them out. We do not need another Anthony Farrer to thrive in the watch market.

@RegNarnoc21 7 ай бұрын

Exactly..

@markgiles8527 10 ай бұрын

Fools are always easily parted with their money. Watches are the tools in which you get them to part with their money. It’s gold.

@iaincook4672 10 ай бұрын

I think the discussion has gotten confused as the market is a two speed market. There is the high demand watch economy (Rolex AP etc) and the second was the entry luxury market. So this video is spot on re the luxury pieces. The other watch economy/market is the Tudor/omega etc. that market is dropping and dropping fast as those who buy in this space are getting impacted by economic factors like interest rates etc. for example the Tudor blue 58 is half of what it as 18mm months ago.

@luvwatchesusa8333 10 ай бұрын

Oisin, Great watch market explanation. Hello Lenny 😊

@motokult 9 ай бұрын

I am impressed . Your best video so far. Respect for very good work and entertaining

@gmotionedc5412 10 ай бұрын

I got into micro brands and love the ones I found! Seriously they bring me great joy. Like Farer which are beautiful watches!🔥

@dannysimenauer5745 9 ай бұрын

Fully agree. One of the outcomes for collectors that are being treated poorly at ADs is the discovery of so many affordable brands that are fun to wear on the wrist. Rolex will always be #1, but you do not have to be clairvoyant to have personal dignity and want to buy a brand or from an AD that treats you with mutual respect. Only Rolex can decide what its brand will be about and how it wants to treat new customers going forward.

@MDchaz 10 ай бұрын

Gringa was right, the actual point of her video was that the constant and incessant focus on watch prices ruins what makes watch collecting a fun hobby.

10 ай бұрын

That actually wasn’t her point in that video at all…. You moron. Said video was called ‘Watches are NOT assets’. Where she carefully explained why watches are not assets and shouldn’t be treated as such. They are, of course, assets. Especially the expensive ones. On top of that, watching the prices of watches doesn’t ruin the hobby at all. It’s only one aspect of it. There a multiple others. The video was hogwash and those who related to it like yourself, just lack a few extra brain cells.

@MDchaz 10 ай бұрын

@ Yes she said they weren’t assets in the original video. But she responded and said of course any physical object is technically an asset. She was complaining how grey market dealers, social media, and watch publications called watches investments. A lot of people were getting into watches just to make money. Her point was that the focus of making money on watches shouldn’t be the focus of the hobby. The focus should be on the engineering and design of these pieces of art which your videos are so good at demonstrating.

10 ай бұрын

@@MDchazshe retracted her video title and never admitted them as assets. There’s a perfectly good argument that the strong market of watches actually stimulated interest in horology and got a lot of people into it for the art and history sake too. Sorry, if you’re a fan of the shit she spewed that time, there’s something wrong with you.

10 ай бұрын

@@denmark39na, no tolerance for that shit. That clairvoyant, hate spewing doom and gloomer was after clicks. Morons like our friend here fell for it.

@davidhindle594chemicalman 10 ай бұрын

@@denmark39that was uncalled for

@mountainhobo 9 ай бұрын

This is still an incestuous watch trader market created by an artificial scarcity. Traditional, regular users, ones that would buy a Rolex for retirement or special event, are out of this market. Other than an occasional rapper or some other celebrity du jour, the buyers and sellers are the same people. It's a closed system.

@dannysimenauer5745 9 ай бұрын

I agree with you. Smart value collectors are sitting on the sidelines, and I think the trend is growing in this direction.

@rayray..3349 10 ай бұрын

"JAWS" Best Movie Ever..! Thank U for Acknowleging it..!🙏 LENNY is BACK😎 Oh & the Watch stuff is really IMPORTANT aswell..!

@housekarl5786 10 ай бұрын

....not easy for a certain tattooed grey market top ambassador and his 'family' at Sunday lunch to digest !

@mikefry5704 10 ай бұрын

Great vlog wise words. Enjoy

@DavidH-ve4fm 10 ай бұрын

Great video

@igormihic 10 ай бұрын

Give 10 trillion dollars to people. Even Pokémon cards are worth millions. Madness will end sooner or later

@michaelfortney7510 9 ай бұрын

You and a few others are the only ones telling the truth. However, there are still people who want nothing to do with truth, unless it’s their truth. Great job.

@mitchgreen4994 10 ай бұрын

it’s been a major crash and the luxury watch flipping market is dead, why else are flippers only consigning. of course your daytona is worth more than what it was 5 yrs ago pre spike, but that’s only because of inflation where your pounds, euros or dollars are also worth a lot less ✌️

@shindilal3311 10 ай бұрын

Very enjoyable Oisin.

@nickjanssen 10 ай бұрын

What a great video!

@michaelmillas1359 10 ай бұрын

Great vid. 🤣🤣 Cut outs

@Phil-ci3bd 10 ай бұрын

Thank you- I look forward to seeing more of Vienna. Do you know the Billy Joel song of the same name?

@alexlee4588 9 ай бұрын

Well done. Well done.

@wqsnsr8 10 ай бұрын

Very informative

@KevinArcher100 10 ай бұрын

great video

@StatueCollecting 10 ай бұрын

As the world economies get worse, the desire of luxury goods will go down naturally. The watch hype train is kaput and won't ever go back up. The days of cheap money are over, but don't take my word for it. Go check interest rates.

@samuelburton5576 10 ай бұрын

Another doomsday hater!

10 ай бұрын

Spike monster 1

@garyshepherd9226 10 ай бұрын

Spot on

@davidbrown9947 10 ай бұрын

Watches on the grey market, will stall at least 20% in the next few months, there is no economic evidence to suggest otherwise. None whatsoever.

10 ай бұрын

There is no apostrophe after "market". Also, you're a spike monster 1

@davidbrown9947 10 ай бұрын

The market has been in free fall for 15 months, there is no micro/macro evidence, to suggest the decline will be reversed.@@CPARyan86

@theladder06 10 ай бұрын

Absolutely spot on! And yes, “it’s pathetic that you have to mention this shit!” Cheers🥃

@mrbluecatone 8 ай бұрын

Perfectly said!!!!

@Timekeeper624 10 ай бұрын

The Enabler Paul Thorpe must be nearly ready to kick his cat, No wonder he is making so many try hard video's he is in full damage control 😂😂

@SkywalkerPaul 10 ай бұрын

😅

@John-wf5if 10 ай бұрын

This content was awesome

@lovesautodetail 3 ай бұрын

Best channel.s

@erickobetitsch6055 8 ай бұрын

Awesome vid. I like the way you smacked around some of the hype You Tubers.

@Matt-uq3in 9 ай бұрын

Watch market is dead, people paying more are lollypop suckers 😂😂💯

@egold1006 10 ай бұрын

My GMT 2 of which I purchased in 1987, cost 1600.00 dollars. In today's dollars 20,000. Nothing has really changed, I always said to my friend, you cannot wear a BMW on your wrist.

@classlessbozo317 10 ай бұрын

$1600 in 1987 is $4300 in today’s dollars.

@Alexgvigo 10 ай бұрын

Got a sea dweller in France in 1992 for $2200 and a Harley Davidson the same year for $20G: I should have bought 9 more watches instead of the bike 😉

@LDLike 10 ай бұрын

$1,600 in 1987 is nowhere near $20,000 today, at least in the US. Not sure what calculator or website you are looking at.

@lettuce1305 10 ай бұрын

@@Alexgvigo yup as much as I like cars, I still prefer to spend my money on watches especially sports Rolex models. A $100k BMW will be worth $35k in 5-6 years, a GMT Pepsi or a Submariner would be worth close to or even higher after 5-6 years of wearing. Also, you can go to the other side of the world, wear your Rolex and bring the box and papers and liquidate the watch for cash, can't do that with a BMW.

@ezdeezytube 9 ай бұрын

Why would you want to wear a car on your wrist

@drichardbailey 10 ай бұрын

So much PPP loan money in the states, and people who were already making money likely had jobs they could continue during the pandemic. Meant there's a lot of people sitting at home not spending money with a bunch of Monopoly money hitting their account. Cars, watches, musical gear....anything you can collect went crazy.

@HywelOwen 9 ай бұрын

I'm definitely either a hoper or a hater. Not sure which.

@petercharron3268 9 ай бұрын

And how and where do I sell a valuable watch? Certainly not eBay? Unless it’s a nice Hamilton. I think it’s a secret market you influencers know about. For us average collectors the supposed value is Monopoly Money, since we don’t know where to sell anything.

@allanbrown8137 10 ай бұрын

Good job, you sound good and look better. Not one mention of Hopper’s Alsta dive watch.

@haithamalmuzayan3050 10 ай бұрын

I AM WITH YOU ✋✋✋✋✋✋✋

@20thcenturyboy85 10 ай бұрын

Thanks for your insights. I kind of wonder about the future after most baby boomers die off, will there be enough watch fans to keep the market going up? -and not just for wrist watches but also items like collectable guitars or musical instruments. BTW: I don't really worry as I buy, own & enjoy! Things to ponder...

@knicks99 9 ай бұрын

I'm the confused monster, not sure whose opinion of the situation I would bet on. At least I'm also the entertained monster! Great video, Oisin.

@simontvrner 10 ай бұрын

IMO the crypto factor is way overblown. The global "crypto" market lost ~$2T in value while over the same timeframe the S&P500 alone lost ~$10T. The crypto bros going broke was a lot more visible. While the silent luxury folks stopped adding hyped pieces when the markets stopped pumping.

@LDLike 10 ай бұрын

Wow. Do you have evidence, or insider knowledge, Grey market dealers passed off known fakes as legit watches? What does “it’s to my understanding” mean? How did you come to understand this?

@kevin_howell 10 ай бұрын

Never bought on the grey market... the watches I've sold, I have always done so privately. If I cannot get a watch then I just come to terms with it and wait until something else catches my eye.

@user-mk3ni4rg1l 10 ай бұрын

Legendary intro

@ericp1139 10 ай бұрын

I want Lenny to meet Kino.

@gary2632 10 ай бұрын

Great vid, you had me at Jaws………..

@VmanStudioz 10 ай бұрын

I can see that your hedge fund insights has served your wealth well.

@user-fi5fr9us2t 9 ай бұрын

Finally somebody explains it as it is...

@SK-ej5lg 9 ай бұрын

Excellent video but let’s also not forget the CPO side. CPO seem to be offering a higher rate to buy back a rolex. So not just they are making money from selling rival products, they would also be taking business away from the grey market and setting the baseline price for pre owned. Why would I sell my hulk to a grey dealer when rolex are offering me more and a potential to start a long term relationship…

@Co-je3lf 10 ай бұрын

"Spike or a Crash, That is the question". William Shakespeare ... Thanks for the vid !

@geno816 10 ай бұрын

I think the watch market is down

@stephenmonash821 10 ай бұрын

In sum.. during the spike we got four new assholes... now we are back to normal .. getting two new assholes...

@Nicholas-V 10 ай бұрын

I wouldn't call it a market crash but it really depends on how much you over paid. We still haven't bottomed out from the spike but we're still up 20% over 3 years, and almost 50% over 5 years. Luckily I didn't over pay for my Rolex and it's still up around 20% from what I paid.

@atom999 10 ай бұрын

Have you adjusted that with inflation? I think there are better investment assets than watches but definitely the joy they bring when wearing. Bonus if it end up making some money, not end of the world of they don't.

@Nicholas-V 10 ай бұрын

@@atom999 I haven't adjusted for inflation since I don't but watches as an investment and don't plan on selling anyways.

@watchguy8537 10 ай бұрын

Oisin… you forgot to mention that one of reasons why the green Daytona is still trading at a higher price point is because it was discontinued!

10 ай бұрын

Only plays a small factor.

@watchguy8537 10 ай бұрын

@ all in-production precious metal Daytonas are now available at or below their retail price! This is good news for us watch collectors. The bubble has burst!

@bobbybobby3589 10 ай бұрын

@@watchguy8537what are you smoking? Check the Daytona Le Mans...

@watchguy8537 10 ай бұрын

@@bobbybobby3589 The LeMans is a special edition. I’m talking about standard precious metal Daytonas. You can get them at great prices nowadays.

@jackycheng2079 10 ай бұрын

Really enjoyed the video, well articulated and funny at the same time!

@nitzer5 9 ай бұрын

Yeah man you are right

@simon0044 9 ай бұрын

I’ve just picked up a 16570 explorer 2 with box and papers, 2005 model with rehaut engraving for £6.5k. Would have cost £8k plus last year. This sounds right in line with what you are saying. However I bought this watch from watchfinder….

@damiano_damiano 9 ай бұрын

I love the clip you put after the sentence: "...a new type of buyers, people watching a stupid video on KZfaq" LOL una clip a caso, un innocuo esempio hahahaha

@AttilahMeneldor 10 ай бұрын

Bingo. The watch spike was created by the overvaluation of crypto. The overlay of crypto bros and lux watches is very similar.

@angdarren5832 10 ай бұрын

Anyone i have a feeling that none of us here is old enough to have live through the 70s of high interest rate . And the asian financial crsis if you are in Asia. So it really depend on where you are i guess.

@markjonz 10 ай бұрын

A bubble followed by a revert to the mean. I wonder if the underlining trend (excluding the bubble) you pointed out is due mostly to inflation. Watch buying wouldn’t be bad hedge against inflation assuming you buy at the mean price. Sadly I bought a tie fighter for $40k and now feel like a moron😢. Lesson learned hopefully

@disgruntledoflondon 9 ай бұрын

I checked out the 1990 Sub price (£2500) converted to include inflation for the last 33 years - it came to £5850, so even selling second hand it still beat inflation.