Binkov's knowledge is finally being put to the test.

There's no need to criticize Binkov for neglecting the Belarus axis of invasion. He made the video before the Russian forces entered Belarus on the pretext of maneuvers. The key points Binkov made are that Russia will get what it wants quickly and any Russian suffering will be felt only in the very long term.

A guy on KZfaq narrating his videos with a literal hand puppet put everyone else's predictions to shame. I love it!

A lot of people commenting that this aged poorly. Firstly, nobody expected Ukraine to perform as well as it did. Not the West, not Ukraine and certainly not the Russians. Besides that this video was pretty accurate and even when it was not, it still addressed the key aspects of the war as we now know them to exist. With hindsight, had you watched this video right before the invasion took place, you would have been pretty grounded in terms of what to expect from the military and international response. Certainly a better analysis than "Russia has more tanks and jets so will blitzkrieg to Lviv" which was going around beforehand.

One mistake was made here, assumption that Russian military is actually modern and not stuck in Soviet era.

i knew WW3 wouldn’t start without a RAID SHADOW LEGEND sponsorship.

You got the basics down perfectly... and then it all went pear-shaped for Russia. Too many attack vectors, horrible logistics, the Rasputitsa, decrepit mechanized infantry... unified Ukraine, unified EU, munitions flooding into Ukraine immediately... oh boy.

"the Russia is way more well equiped and knows how to use that equipment" 💀💀💀

You didn't account for Germany sending 5,000 helmets to Ukraine. THIS. CHANGES. EVERYTHING.

The part that got me was “Russia would enjoy air superiority” This makes me feel better for all my past mistakes

"a few hundred javelins wont make a difference"... 2 months later... "20 anti tank missiles for every tank in Russia"

One thing that Blinkov couldn't know is that the Russian army would become a major source of equipment for Ukraine.

The main things Binkov didn't predict were: 1. The Russians northern axis from Belarus attacking Kiev. 2. The donation and effectiveness of NLAW ATGMs. 3. The outrunning and ambushing of Russian logistics columns. 4. Russia not utilizing it's mentioned advanced, modern and well trained forces over the second line equipment and conscripts they've been sending.

Guys, this video was before any major buildup of Russian forces in Belarus, stop getting mad about it being "inaccurate" when it was a good prediction based on the information at the time.

Okay. I am impressed. Not perfect, but better predictions than any “news” organizations. Excellent work.

You did a pretty good job predicting what happened in retrospect. The only thing you really missed is how bad Russian logistics was, and how absent their air force would be, and of course almost everyone missed that prediction.

What wasn't mentioned is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. Remember, Russia's two demands were: (1) NATO not adding any new members, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland, and (2) removal of all NATO forces from the previous Warsaw Pact nations. An invasion of Ukraine would result in the opposite results on these two points, it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives and the Russian economy would be negatively impacted. It would force Russia to rely more on China, which is the equivalent of putting most or all of their eggs in one basket, especially if China ends up in a war with the US and allies, which would certainly affect trade between China and Russia.

Who's watching in March to see how accurate this was?

This aged well

So much for the Russian intelligence edge and air superiority... also, you forgot to take the Ukranian tractor fleet into account.

I think Binkov's analysis is 75% accurate in light of recent events. What he missed out (what we now know) is a) The use of Belarus as a staging post for an axis of advance towards Kyiv, b) the ability of the Ukrainians to communicate with and thereby co-ordinate their forces to resist the Russians. Please remember he is giving the most likely scenario based upon the disposition of forces and the political situation as of the 26th of January 2022.

Everybody giving him a hard time for getting things wrong, but these matters are extremely hard to predict, just because you may have also predicted something correctly that this guy didn’t.. doesn’t make you a military battlefield mastermind, sit down

2 years later and he wasent really wrong

This is a nice time capsule: "Russian side is much better equipped, with heavy mordern armaments and knows how to use them" and then they rushed them int Kyiv without a care for infantry support and their supply lines lmao. This is not an attack on you, Binkov, it just shows that the whole world had no idea how dysfunctional russia actually was/is.

We overestimated Russia, underestimated Ukraine and how fast the EU would react as a whole.

Binkov - “mostly likely won’t attack” Putin - “hold my beer”

this video aged like fine wine

You nailed everything on the head two whole months ago! You even accurately described China's quandary, and the sanctions, and Swift cut-off... You earned yourself a follow for your accuracy!

Well, it’s not an “if” anymore…

This seems like potentially the most pointless conflict yet. If this causes WW3 I'll be pissed 😅

Wow here we are more than two months later and binkov's prediction was really accurate. I am impressed at how it turned out to be exactly as he foresaw...

We about to find out boys!

So we all got this vid the same minute huh?….

Now that we do have a war in Ukraine, it interesting which parts of this video proved correct and which did not. The speed of the Russian advances and their ability to take Kyiv for instance, proved to be inaccurate. The rest of it though, was spot on. The gentlemen behind Binkov should be recognized for the overall accuracy of what amounts to an intelligence estimate.

Binkov gets it more or less spot-on about the economic consequences of the conflict and how the West would respond. The main fault with the video is that he overestimated Russian military efficiency...but then nearly everybody did. But this mistaken view was nothing like the blunder made by Putin and his high command in their underestimation of the Ukrainians.

Well this is unfortunately the first time we will actually see a practical test on whether the hypothetical scenario is accurate

Everyone's just coming back to this video now lol

Russian side have heavy armaments and knows how to use them. Sorry binkov but it appears they don't.

What nobody predicted is that Ukraine will end up with more equipment after the war than before

Forgot to account for the legendary Ukrainian Tractor Battalions. 🚜🚜🚜🚜

I've always wanted to find out how these scenarios would play out, but not like this... not like this

I must credit you for leaving this video up, maybe people try to shy away from previous predictions once reality happens. This was a high quality and well researched video, with the only serious miscalculations being those which were made by everyone. Well done.

I disagree with people saying he is very wrong. This is the most educated guess one could have. The only reason he did not get it 100% right, is he did not know how much the west would support ukraine, and how low the russian moral would be. (In comparison to ukrainian forces.) It was also impossible to know russian has not put it's new tech into full production and that soldiers would still use ex-soviet gear.

Funny seeing all the people arguing here over the accuracy of these predictions. It's not very easy to literally predict the future, so don't be too harsh on a KZfaqr failing to get everything correct a whole month in advance (maybe more depending on when the script was written). In actual war, it's bad to be too predictable, so of course there are going to be mistakes in a video like this.

Pretty accurate despite the lack of Belarus in play and the current outstanding resistance from the Ukrainians. The predictions about worldwide sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system, foreign lethal armaments support, are all spot on. I also believe that he hit the nail on the head when he states that China will supplement most of the economic loss sustained by Russia from the global sanctions. We'll have to wait and see. Keep up the fight Ukraine.

It's fascinating to rewatch this now and see what Binkov got right and wrong. The assumptions were in line with most experts thought, but wars are notoriously hard to predict. It's really sad that two big countries will suffer for years to come because of on man's ego.

we can see how well your battle predictions are for the first time.

Am I the only one watching this video again to compare with what is happening irl?

Honestly, I'm amazed how spot on you were, just the fact how poorly equipped the Russians were and how fast the sanctions from the EU were instated was completely unexpected for everyone. And could not possibly have predicted that aspect

No one had any idea of ​​the impact of tractors on modern warfare. Slava Ukraini!

I’m watching this 10 days into the Russian invasion and his predictions are very accurate. Update 51 days now and he’s almost perfect with his predictions. Impressive.

Its really sad when a guy using a sock puppet has more foresight than most politicians....

How the F can some of the ppl say this aged like milk? This video is incredible for a prediction and many differences are due to NATO giving more military assistance much earlier and oil sanctions etc coming to russia much harder etc. The way he drew almost the map that we have right now for what russia would have to settle with due to manpower limits is toooo accurate.

This aged amazingly

Well from diplomatic stand, he predicted everything correctly

Man, I literally was thinking when will the Comrade address the current affairs in Ukraine. Not only that, there were 2 views when I clicked. Couldn't be more up to date.

"Never going to happen. Europeans are being hysterical" Putin and Lavrov last month

Its hard to predict the effect of incompetence

So far, Binkov has been right. The main fighting will probably be over in a month. But sanction, alliance with China, and a second Cold War, is spot on.

And we are back.

"Equipped with modern heavy armor and knows how to use them." This didn't age well! Everything else was pretty close, though.

To be fair, this is a very well aged video. Lots of the predictions proved to be accurate. One of the missing pieces in the video is that as Ukraine is still in its "mud season" in March, the Russian military has had to stick to the roads.

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As time has shown, this was a pretty good prediction except it overestimates the strength of Russian armour and the quality and motivation of their troops (which we all did) all of which are something of an embarrassment to Putin.

And yet, KZfaq recommended this video today, who's watching this video 2 months after jt was launched 😂

I guess I should check in on this video over the weeks and months and see how accurate it is. It's looking pretty good so far.

I love the implicit argument in this comments section. Was Binkov accurate? Mostly, yeah, just overestimated the Russian military and not by as much as some are saying. Don't listen to them, Binkov, you did great.

watched this video just a week before the actual invasion, and just rewatched it. Binkov actually got it pretty good in terms of the economic fallout. On the military front, the spread of forces with the Belarus attack changed the whole picture. And as pretty much most people back in 2021, Binkov assumed that russian military would act like a professional force and not be hijacked by unrealistic political wishful thinking,

Who is here after Russia did "actually'" invade Ukraine ?

how ridiculous that one of the historical documents studied by future historians to know what were we thinking befote the conflict, will have raid shadow legends ad XD

Accurate and credible as usual. Curious how 2 months ago the analysis looked pessimistic for the russians, and the credit given to infantry ukrainian forces quite too much... Now, in early april, after 30 days of clash, it looks like that despite the (not considered) help of Belarus and the concentrated effort against Kiev to topple Zelensky, the situation is so much worse for Putin, than expected. 1) territorial gain is much less than it was supposed to be. 2) air superiority was never really there 3) all major cities resisted, even Mariupol that, for its position, is basically untenable. And yet, despite surrounded, it still did not fall in russian hands. 4) Zelensky still in power, and now a star in the media. All pessimistic points happened. 1) sanctions 2) internal russian dissent 3) huge losses in manpower and equipment 4) invasion bogged down AND EVEN on the backfoot, with ukrainians on the counterattack, getting back territory, even striking in russian territory, moral of russian troops reportedly catastrophic. Probably an update is due by now...

this aged well lol, this is during the time we thought russia can defeat kiev in just 48-120 hours. but now, its almost like 4 or 5 months and the only major russian victory we have seen is mariupol, and no more frontline exists in kiev anymore

You did not mention that use of Belarus territory is possible, destroying ukranian north flang and opening rout to full annexation

Predicted everything extremely well, except for the real shocker: the complete ineptitude of the Russian military, which no one could of predicted.

Never have i thought i could see how accurate he is

This turns out to be extremely well put analysis. Spot on. The displayed strenghts and weakneses of both sides are recurring since day 1. Some of you guys ignore that these simulations are made on certain assumptions, such us equal morale or limits on international involvement. They also never assume that mistakes shall be made - which is totally not the case with the actual russian invasion. Well done, Binkov. One of your most accurate one yet.

Let's not forget, Finland and Sweden would join NATO the next day after the invasion as they said, and NATO would make the decision to incorporate them over night as they said.

“Russia has modern heavy armour and knows how to use them” yikes

This video indeed aged well. I remember watching this when it first came out. And it was the only video that (1) didn't say Russia would win, (2) Russia would win very quickly. Remember, back then everyone thought it would be over fast with a Russian victory.

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For being speculative, this is really accurate. Lot of people saying this didn't age well, but so much of it has come to fruition? No one counted on the Russians performing so poorly, or Belarusia's compliance in the invasion. I don't follow this channel, but yer man called the poor performance of the Russian airforce in a video older than this.

In retrospect, the analysis has fairly stood the test of time. Its biggest mistake was in failing to anticipate how irrationally Russia would behave. If I put the military experts' analysis of the time side by side, this is one of the best predictions (at least from what I've read/heard - of course I'm far from having read everything). Binkov correctly points out that an attack on Kiev is unlikely - Russia doesn't have enough troops. Well, Russia did attack - and it ended in a bloodbath. The part about the importance of NATO-Ukraine information sharing was also very apt. The estimate that the war would end in the winter was entirely correct - provided that Putin thinks about the future of his nation. No one could have expected Putin to sacrifice tens of thousands of reservists just to buy time. Nor did Binkov estimate that Russia would stoop so low as to target Ukraine's infrastructure in an attempt to terrorize civilians in an effort to trigger a migrant crisis. Still, it's a lesson: I remember seeing this video before the war broke out and thinking: "it's clear, there will be no war. If there is, Putin will just occupy the Donbas." And while I was smiling smugly at the simplicity of the whole situation, I bought a bunch of Gazprom shares very cheaply. Only a total fool would attack. So next time: rationality is a fine thing. It's just that even the best analysis can run into your opponent behaving completely irrationally. And even the most straightforward situation can turn out completely unexpectedly. For example, by losing several thousand euros because Putin didn't even get information from his intelligence services that was freely available on youtube. --- Note - the money I lost doesn't bother me. I already sent a bunch of money to the Ukrainian army. Now I only care about one thing: I want to see Putin and all those Russian nationalists suffer for what they have done. I will never forgive Russia - and neither should you.

An impressive number of points hit well - the LNG tankers, the heating dilemma, the stronger borders with Baltic countries, Russia becoming a cheap labor source for China, the Chinese being uncertain...

this aged well

Is it just me or is the Russian strategy proposed in this video more reasonable than what they are actually doing at the moment?

Besides Belarus involvement and Russia’s surprising inept offensive you got a lot of stuff right. Embargo’s, China’s stance, political future, Swift. Very impressed

he didnt even predict that russia would bring back their ww2 armored train

My great grandfather used to tell me about the great wars (WWI & WWII). He fought in both. He described it as not a war between nations but between circles of interests. They managed ro influence the sheep through propaganda and the intelligent portion of the population by threats and blackmailing. He fought alongside the Germans as a Hungarian. When he was taken captive by the Soviets, it were actually Soviets who helped his brigade escape. Throughout his long flight back gome he had dozens of Soviet families hiding them and helping him get back to his family. He also had nazis giving him food and clothes. Even though they should have shot him on sight for desertion. War is a complex thing with no clear lines drawn between sides and definitely told in a way that serves the purposes of very tight circles. I personally have good friends in all the "opposing" countries. Good people who would never would like to hear of war. People are not idiots, those hungry for power are.

Turned out that Russia did have the second best army, in Ukraine...

Everyone SEVERELY overestimated Russia’s power.

I watched this to see how well it aged. I think he did a good job. Of course nobody would be 100% correct, as some assumptions made pre-war, that turned out to be wrong, just could not be known.

Who's here to see how accurate binkov is?

I watched this video on May 5, 2022. It is very interesting to see how things have actually played out.

“The war would be destined to become a very bloody affair.” Nailed that bit.

This Video aged very well... sadly

2:35 “Much better equipped and knows how to use them” This didn’t age well. =)

30 days after they invade and I hear..." Russian has modern weapon systems and knows how to use them.". ROFLMAO we were all so naive back then

Tbf the video is still good, it just differs from reality because of some assuptions being made that proved to be wrong. What the video shows around 5:40 was a pretty accurate prediction. The channel obviously can only rate based on what each country has on paper. That the Russian military would suck in so many areas was something we couldn't really know for certain before the war. The general idea/how the dynamics and goals would be in the war were guessed very accurately imo. The Russian forces were simply overrated, and the foreign support for Ukraine underrated. But that isn't something you can predict until it is actually happening. So I still give Binkov props for the video, as it seems like a good prediction based on the circumstances/knowledge we had before the war broke out.

KZfaq algorithm surely knows when to recommend stuff