Bitcoin v The US Debt Bomb with Matthew Mežinskis

Рет қаралды 22,600

Күн бұрын

Matthew Mežinskis is the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast and Porkopolis Economics. In this interview we discuss the history of central bank debt and crises, money destruction & printing, hyperinflation, and Bitcoin’s base money update and price models.
“I don’t know the point where this thing breaks again…I’d caution people to look at it the other way…they can kick the can down the road a lot longer than you believe.”
- Matthew Mežinskis
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 A brief history of debt
00:12:35 WTF happened in 1929, 1971, & 2008?
00:19:58 Fed unloading debt?; 2020 money printing
00:28:40 Deficits matter; interest spiral
00:36:52 Hyperinflation?; gold buying
00:51:29 Bitcoin PowerLaw price model
01:04:21 Base money: Bitcoin vs fiat
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#Bitcoin #Finance #Money #Crypto #Economics

Пікірлер: 88

@warrenb2856 15 күн бұрын

1:13:46: I have a friend that sold his small business for about $2M around 2000. He is a former English professor, obviously intelligent and very successful in business. He has stayed in cash for two decades now and only has $1M of assets left. Just weeks ago we were talking about bitcoin and he said it is a scam. He listens to Peter Zeihan and has not spent any time trying to understand bitcoin. It is so painful to watch friends that will not put in a few hours studying bitcoin.

@user-ps1ft1hy4j 15 күн бұрын

Yikes, good story but terrible story, if you know what I mean. Staying in cash that long was monumentally poor judgment. Nobody in my own family talks about bitcoin, and sometimes I think they're losing money minute by minute almost audibly. Some keep tens of thousands in the bank and I sure hope they like losing 15% of it, compounded, by the year. *sigh*

@hendriknocomment-ml5sq 11 күн бұрын

Mb@@user-ps1ft1hy4j

@bubblebuddy8815 15 күн бұрын

This was so fascinating to watch for me. Thank you for the content.

@quantonomy 15 күн бұрын

The power law is much much more than just a fitting line. It one of the most important pattern in nature. It has a lot of important properties, like scale invariance. Power law are also associated with energy conservation, resilience and anti-fragility. Also the casual links is that the power law is based on the growth of addresses and the Metcalfe law. So there is much more that what was discussed here.

@quantonomy 15 күн бұрын

Great job about the power law. I just check it seems the earliest post from Matthew was in December 2018. I posted about the power law in time in September 2018 on Reddit. But the first power law I discovered was in 2013 when I found out that Transactions and Price are related by a power law and also Addresses and Price are related by a power law. The power law in time is due to the interaction of 2 power laws. Addresses~time^3 and Price~Addresses^2 so when you combine them you have Price~Addresses^2~(time^3)^2~time^6 that is the power law Matthew is discussing. So it is interesting that really the cause of the power law is the growth of addresses as a cube in time and the Metcalfe law (that is the square law between Price and Addresses).

@MadWaloo 13 күн бұрын

Wow, you’re not bullish enough! This was great stuff!

@lookatthetrees7494 15 күн бұрын

That voice... 💯❤ Mezinskis

@nikolayvladimirov570 12 күн бұрын

I like that you guys stayed away from politics. The guy is biased and will support everyone who supports his vision of the war. Softly , a few times, he was saying how the FED is actually doing the right thing. Of course, he doesn't say the FED is the dood guys. Of course.. Dani asked the perfect question that was left unanswered. Is the BTFP money printing?

@misty671 15 күн бұрын

You can put the power law formula into an Excel spreadsheet and do your own tracking.

@quantarrow 13 күн бұрын

Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place

@quantonomy 15 күн бұрын

Ok but now you need to invite the Power Law OG given I have insights nobody else has. I have been working on this for 12 years.

@jimnichols5584 15 күн бұрын

Brilliant analysis. Thanks

@Fernando_Quintana 15 күн бұрын

Danny's question at 36:00 coul've been replied by Lyn Alden. Get these two together!

@BatmanBoss 15 күн бұрын

Great show

@jayhebert8775 15 күн бұрын

Great episode!

@HomeSlize 16 күн бұрын

Super informative!

@Nic01101011 16 күн бұрын

I didn't know DDP was a bitcoiner

@BradGrayable 15 күн бұрын

40 minutes in... and the complexity of what they do. Screw them! I'm so glad we have bitcoin.

@davidminchin9657 15 күн бұрын

Awesome guest

@Mildly_Unsuccessful_Individual 15 күн бұрын

Really great stuff 🔥

@_jamesbro_ 15 күн бұрын

This is great, thank you WBD team. When James Lindsey?

@angelmarauder5647 Күн бұрын

37:44 I think a good indicator on the lack of faith of long-term national securities is the inverted yield curve. The markets are not willing to hold a 10-year bond vs a year or less. If there is not a corrective force there, eventually it will lead to that massive Zimbabwe level loss of Faith.

@Sam-di4wq 10 күн бұрын

Amazing!

@MiroPribanic 15 күн бұрын

1:14:05....the unique sense of humour of Peter McCormack....he's got not one picture, but two pictures of the Antichrist on his mantelshelf ;-)

@younube2 16 күн бұрын

Great video

@apc4884 15 күн бұрын

If there is a deficit currentof 50c on the dollar, then how are they destroying the debt? Using what money?

@pitfour7396 15 күн бұрын

Compliments Uncle Fred's discussion of Power Law. Would be great to see Fred Krueger and Pete hook up. Hint.😉

@realKytra 15 күн бұрын

pfew, great guest 💪

@hfwwf 15 күн бұрын

So is owning other country's debt a bit like the nuclear deterrent idea? And is it right to call this peace time when military power is used in such a different way this century?

@Buckaroo801 11 күн бұрын

The power law is incredible!!

@freedomfight1933 14 күн бұрын

Great charts!

@Buckaroo801 11 күн бұрын

Anyway to get access to his charts that he was showing during the podcast?

@TheWisestCompanyOnEarth 15 күн бұрын

Clean. Real clean.

@patrickmccarthy5617 9 күн бұрын

He has a very deep voice. So we must listen to him 😂

@angelmarauder5647 Күн бұрын

$.28 average deficit spending!? That's 28%! All that extra cash is going somewhere... Some of it into inflation, the rest into future inflation.

@LeloRetsam 13 күн бұрын

Incredible

@angelmarauder5647 Күн бұрын

34:26 I think the important thing to notice with this difference is that the extra dollars are being absorbed by international markets and massive accounts. The dollars are not coming back into normal inflation because they are being held in reserve. Because of the monopoly on cash, they're able to control yields on investments... This isn't going to exist much longer when people start using BTC for their cash. When that happens, there will be enormous uncontrollable inflation...

@mareksniknais5415 16 күн бұрын

Mežinskis!

@freedomseeker777 15 күн бұрын

He's got Lithuanian surname?

@user-99.99 13 күн бұрын

Excellent presentation. What’s funny is that WBD shits on Peter Schiff but at the same time ignores the power law. There’s some sort of irony there.

@jonashayes2508 16 күн бұрын

Gavin Belson takes young athletes blood 🤣

@IshrakHossain-rt8is 13 күн бұрын

People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.

@danielmoreno9498 16 күн бұрын

biggest economic growth on a federal level is a tricky concept, i mean what about it? i would argue that if we talking economic growth per capita china has alredy surpassed that timeframe and probably the soviets on their first period too.

@RaguelMUULLER 15 күн бұрын

Forget about holding onto those coins, get in on the Pepennedy presale! I think they're onto something big.

@markpalmer8083 14 күн бұрын

😂😅😂😅😂😅😂😅😅😅😅😂😂😂

@younube2 16 күн бұрын

Isn’t issuing more bonds essentially printing because they are creating more liabilities for future dollars?

@grantroberts4231 15 күн бұрын

only when the Fed purchases them with money they create (by pressing a button).

@jeremyplante6698 14 күн бұрын

Where can I access these charts

@WhatBitcoinDid 14 күн бұрын

This is what Matthew has on his site for charts: www.porkopolis.io/thechart/

@dakotablanc9760 15 күн бұрын

Danny lowkey looks like tyson fury....

@angelmarauder5647 Күн бұрын

39:35 foreign investors will trust the dollar as long as other countries are doing worse. It all comes down to inflation. And as Luke groman ie says, it all comes down to energy prices.

@wissiwizard4536 14 күн бұрын

Awesome r

@riteshsuthar4986 15 күн бұрын

Is Danny wearing Stanton Warriors baseball cap?

@Richard-ki4nk 14 күн бұрын

What is to stop bitcoin on the main chain from being squeezed out of being used in any transaction as credit derivatives take its place due to the costs associated with moving on the main chain? And then if almost nobody is settling on the main chain why would miners continue to stand ready to solve a hash? It generally happens very slowly, but credit and derivatives replace real money. then when the music stops and its clear that the real money cant support the credit claims, leaders will remove real money from the system and then back to fiat. If its too costly to interact with bitcoin on chain, although small circles of people will use Lightning, why would anyone hold and use actual bitcoin...other than a few people out of principle? The large institutions that hold your bitcoin and transact over lightning may not have as much bitcoin as claimed (fractional reserve banking) leading the world down the same path as before

@Buckaroo801 11 күн бұрын

I thought Danny didn't believe in Power Law?

@kevinbandy249 11 күн бұрын

pretty sure he doesn't. I would have liked to hear his thoughts here on Matthew's explanation of it though. He asked a couple of questions but not in terms of his skepticism regarding the trend line here.

@IVIagicful 15 күн бұрын

The "Federal debt holdings of central bank" metric.. he seems to count in the mortgage backed securities too, judging by the June 2024 number... But that isn't government's debt though... What gives?

@IVIagicful 15 күн бұрын

It should be something like 4.4T instead of 6.7T

@todmann67 16 күн бұрын

People project onto PlanB a lot.

@pycontiki 16 күн бұрын

Why doesn’t Peter link to the guest’s YT channel?

@WhatBitcoinDid 16 күн бұрын

All guest links are in the show notes on our site (linked near the top of the YT description) www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/bitcoin-v-the-us-debt-bomb

@sofakingsmawsome718 14 күн бұрын

BTC!!!!

@TheRealDerekS 16 күн бұрын

I love you guys dearly, but you're absolutely infuriating with the power law ignorance. The power law is NOT S2F! He used it and jacked it up exponentially. The power law is not exponential, bitcoin is not exponential, bitcoin is not a technology S-curve, bitcoin and the power law it follows are scale invariant polynomials, they are not exponential! Moon boys don't like this math bcuz it is more conservative than they're egos want to admit. Please do not show contempt prior to investigation, it's clear you don't know what the power law actually is. I expect way more out of you Danny... P.s. I still love you, but you need to step your game up

@geoms6263 15 күн бұрын

We still love you, but you need to step your game up to

@user-ps1ft1hy4j 15 күн бұрын

I'm glad people smarter than I are involved in bitcoin.

@kevinbandy249 11 күн бұрын

I think Matthew, so far, has done the best job explaining what it actual is. I now understand that it's just simply one type of trend line. The slope of this trend can change up or down but hasn't changed much in 8 years (as discussed in this interview). And the prices shown in his chart (and others' charts of the power law) are simply a projection if the power trend line continues the path it has done for years now.

@Richard-ki4nk 15 күн бұрын

People tend to forget gov is run by people and the majority of these people r just doing what is good for themselves. Keep this in mind. Whenever people say why would Germany, or X country, do something so stupid, the answer is because it benefits certain individuals over others.

@c27433 15 күн бұрын

I'm confused, is he defending central banks?

@gavinbrinck 13 күн бұрын

Wait, so what is the sexy price number in 2033 ? :))P

@drostradamus 15 күн бұрын

Hard to follow along listening

@tbgaming17.5 15 күн бұрын

this Mežinskis became the new planB, with his hype bitcoin charts ?

@MiroPribanic 15 күн бұрын

correction "hype-d"

@moralhazard1 15 күн бұрын

Well, more than half of the ep was just Fed Reserve and government debt charts. So if you don't buy bitcoin, buy LITERALLY ANYTHING ELSE!!! Dollar is collapsing!

@edza118 16 күн бұрын

Is Metthew Latvian?

@dermic 16 күн бұрын

a Leviathan (whale)

@geoms6263 15 күн бұрын

Matthew is a European American; professional experience on both continents since 2002. Enjoys macro history, Cincinnati Bearcats, and is creator of Crypto Voices podcast and Porkopolis Economics.

@quantonomy 15 күн бұрын

But it is very disingenuous using data only from early 2010. The reason is that is obvious there is no enough data to establish a trend. The data was dominated by that early bubble. So it is meaningless to even show that data. Also the real power law is at the bottom.

@howardk831 15 күн бұрын

Plan M

@CalvinGroover 15 күн бұрын

I can’t believe he has framed pics of Peter schiff 😂😂😂😂

@adiintel1 15 күн бұрын

Can't stand that prick anymore.

@reggieanna116 15 күн бұрын

He keeps saying the government isn’t printing more money when the Fed doesn’t buy the bonds back. During the period of the dark green flatlining, the US treasury was still printing money by issuing bonds. In large amounts! When the gov bonds fed bought back come does the fed take the money from the banks?