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When to SET MINE - Do You Have the Right Odds?

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BlackRain79Poker

BlackRain79Poker

4 жыл бұрын

Knowing when to set mine (and when NOT to set mine), is an extremely important part of a winning poker strategy.
Many people in low stakes games in particular set mine in spots where they do not have the correct mathematical odds.
This poker hand is a very close case where I discuss if we have the right odds to set mine or not.
What do you think? Would you set mine in this situation?
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Пікірлер: 56
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
When do you set mine? Also, check out the Advanced Suited Connector strategy that I have been using to CRUSH my opponents lately: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/d7p3fsV6rrvFdoU.html
@jmurrs910
@jmurrs910 4 жыл бұрын
I'm always set-mining my opened PPs to a three-bet open (reasonable sizing, not 5x 6x mongo re-pops) when it goes multi-way, especially when there are fish coming along; and even more so when deeper-stacked. In fact, over ~1,200,000 hands, I have over 75 BB/100 with all non-premium PPs in large part due to these spots. I think they're immensely profitable. You might get different results over a smaller sample because of variance but having consistently run this way, it seems to be the optimal and exploitative strategy. Contrary to some other comments, I think it's even better against more aggressive LAGs than a tighter more balanced 3-bet raiser. They're less likely to get away from high PPs. It'd be better to have this sort of situation in-position. Like a button open, small-blind 3-bet and BB or limper flat. Sometimes you can float small flop leads that fold out the third player too. A lot of the time the re-raiser will c-bet AK into a brick board and give up on the turn with little equity. That's a bit more advanced and relies on your read against the villain and I'd certainly never float/barrel against a fish. On larger c-bet sizings, it's always a fold. But that's an exploitable strategy that works against regs sometimes, you just need to have the balls to do it. Also: never 4-bet this OOP against this player type. You want to 4-bet for value or with a weaker hand that has better postflop playability and preferably with blockers (KQs, A5s, etc.) What are you going to do when this aggressive LAG flats you and the board comes high cards?
@brandondorsey7204
@brandondorsey7204 4 жыл бұрын
Fold pre. Not playing a 3 bet pot oop vs a good LAG
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Can't go wrong with this, thanks for your thoughts Brandon!
@gennarovanzetti
@gennarovanzetti 4 жыл бұрын
WOW! One hand history review better than the past one. Congratulations for your awesome work Nathan, as always, and let me give my fishy contribution to this scenario. First of all, I would be opening this range of hands when I see there is opportunity to do so: when I have a villain in my left that tends to 3bet a lot, I would never open 22-66 or 45s, 56s, and two gappers no way! From the Hijack, versus a spewy 3bettor ahead I would do two things: A) Find a better table where on my left I could find a more passive player either tight or loose, because these guys will call a lot and 3bet less. When these types of players 3bet the weakest part of my range I also tend to fold. B) Find a better group of hands to raise and that could play better versus a 3bet or even could 4bet the player in position because it sucks to call and play out of position with the weakest part of our range or even the middle part, as professor Nathan comment in the beginning of the video. Important factor: when you raise 3x BB from the Hijack and takes a huge 3bet of 3,5x or 4x like that from a player in position it is not funny to continue, because we are going on with the huge faith that: A) We are going to set 1/7 or 1/8 B) When we setmine are we going to paid for worst hands? That's even more crucial. The stats are available: If I am aware that the villain ahead, in position, is 3betting 12% of his entire range, I would rather open from HJ: 88+, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs, and so on. If I got a 3bet to play out of position with 98s, for instance, I would have much more playability than if I had called with a pocket pair. Now, is there an argument for a 4bet here, after this huge 3bet size (3,5x) and a cold call from a broken stack fish in the blinds? Well, if we 4bet/Squeeze with a huge size like that out of position our 4bet range would be very, very weak and broken and exploitable. Because, if we can 4bet out of position with 55, we could easily say that our 4bet range OOP is something like: 55+, AQs+, A5s-A4s, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo (9% of 4bet range out of position) which is not possible, because if we do that we began to experience a lot of 4bets for value that we could not sustain with 55, 77, 99 and then we would be forced to live our hand or go all in. Continuing, Hero decides to call OOP versus 2 bad players and the flop comes 5sTc6s. Well, I suppose the range of the LAG player who made a 3bet in the button is something like: 99+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KQo (12%). I almost forgot that, because the LAG player with 12% of 3bet is still ahead of Hijack's range when he 3bets. Preflop, the Hero in the Hijack has 33% equity with his 55, the LAG in the BTN has 40% and the BB Fish has 26%. Now, it would be a very different scenario if the BB decides to fold and we have a heads-up HJ x BTN: Hero Hijack would have 46.33% and the LAG Villain BTN would have 53.67%. I am assuming the fish in the BB called with 40% of his range. (best case scenario because he could be calling easily with 60% of his range or more) and the fish in the blinds decides to lead with a 1 blind bet, which is a very professional move (no it is not, I am just making a joke). Well the BB Fish bets having nearly 8% equity! (in this particular FLOP) and our friend in the Hijack with his beautiful 55 had at the time nearly 84% equity!!! (The LAG in the BTN with his 12% 3bet range had close to 9% equity after this specific flop) So, this is one thing Nathan says a lot in his videos and I take under my thoughts when I am running through a hand: When you have a value strong hand like that you should try to build the pot as soon as possible and BET FOR VALUE because these guys will pay with anything they hit or not: horrible gutters, second pairs, TPTK, Top pair decent kicker and top pair with no kicker. If Hero Hijack 55 had raised for 1/2 Pot the LAG player would leave his AK, AQ, AJ, AT? I believe not, but I agree with the line of thought of hero partially only: if the LAG player has a strong draw and decides to call just 2 cents in a pot of 64, 66 cents it would be nasty for Hijack. Because there is a draw in the board I am almost raising this spot 100% Now, the LAG player make a huge non-sense polarized bet of over 100% pot which means that either he has the absolute nuts or that he has "nothing" (when I say nothing a mean a huge draw, a poor draw, any draw lol) and the Hero shipping here I believe is the best move, considering he had nearly 84% equity to go all in here, and in the long run this is sweet. OF course that 16% villain would be realizing his huge non sense range of hands equity, but this is why we play poker: to find spots like that and put all the chips in the middle. (paraphrasing Nathan) Thanks again, this is wonderful!
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your thoughts Henrique! Glad you enjoyed this video :)
@HomeStudioBasics
@HomeStudioBasics Жыл бұрын
LMAO. King Jack?! Omg I just spit out my drink lol. That has got to be one of the worst all-in calls I've ever seen haha. I can just hear him now: "Back door straight draw? Ship it!" xD
@youtubegregg
@youtubegregg 2 жыл бұрын
I think the hand was played correctly. Villain 15 got lucky at the end. I have been in this situation .. lucky at these stakes when the flush card also pairs the board! They cant wait to get it all in if there is any money behind.. and a nice win for me! Nathan if you get this and I haven't seen it or missed in other videos. I know you play many tables.. I play 2-3. When you are card dead at a table, how many orbits/hands do you play before leaving that table?
@paulwevers2109
@paulwevers2109 4 жыл бұрын
The old minbet of 2 cents. Saying , hey dudes i want a cheap turn to hit my K or J. But if you raise i will call any ways. No matter there is no logic to that calling since i pretended only to want a cheap turn and not that expensive one you made it..... I think hero played this hand just fine. Although the option of isolating the small stack fish is interesting and good tactics to in my book. You can always fold if TAG is coming over the top to your 4bet if not your odds on winning the hand against overcards are way better. Still a flip but risking just a small part of your stack. If hes a reasonable reg he should be able to fold his ace suited rags there. If not then he himself would be labelled a fish or?
@vladsavchenko9176
@vladsavchenko9176 4 жыл бұрын
I'd say 4-betting pre would be a bad choice, and here's why: Short version: we're hoping for a flip with 55 in a spot where both villains can easily have higher pairs, and there's just not enough dead money to compensate for the weakness of our hand. Math: 1. I expect Villain 15 to call with JJ+/AK, which is 3% of hands, so with 12% 3-bet this comes down to 25% call, 75% fold. Against that range 55 has 33% equity, and we'd lose about 30BB EV here if fish folds. Calculating spots where he overcalls is much harder, but it's also a losing spot for sure. 2. Even if 3-bettor folds and fish decides to call, we're not too happy here either. I've played a bit with ranges here, in most cases we have about 35-40% equity, which is roughly 0EV, depending on a specific range. 55 just perform too poorly against any kind of reasonable call/call range. Only if fish gets it in with 100% of hands, 55 has 60% equity versus that, and it would be ≈15BB EV win, which would result in a 4-bet being profitable (0.25*(-30) + 0.75*15 = 3.75BB EV profit)
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your thoughts Vlad. I agree, 4betting pre is definitely not necessary.
@fundiver198
@fundiver198 4 жыл бұрын
Typically you can not justify calling a 3-bet with intentions to purely setmine, unless your opponent has an extremely narrow range. Against the main Villian we can win around 15x the amount, we have to invest, and that is just not enough. We only flop a set one out of eight times, and he is far from always stacking off, when his 3-betting range is wide. Plus there are also times like this, where we hit our set, but we still lose the hand. So to justify calling, it has to be more than just a setmine, which is why, even a hand like 88 is a lot better than 55. With 88 we dominate more of his suited aces and suited connectors, and we have a better chance of getting to showdown and being good even without hitting a set.
@vladsavchenko9176
@vladsavchenko9176 4 жыл бұрын
@@fundiver198 agree, though I'm not sure why you decided to write this as an answer to my comment, as I was addressing only the preflop all-in idea But yeah, set-mining against a 12% range (and 3.5x raise OOP) is surely a losing play In this spot, however, I'd say it's breakeven-ish, because the fish is pretty likely to commit the rest of his stack if he connects with the board in any way (or if he has like 88 on JT5 etc.)
@vladsavchenko9176
@vladsavchenko9176 4 жыл бұрын
@@fundiver198 agree, though I'm not sure why you decided to write this as an answer to my comment, as I was addressing only the preflop all-in idea But yeah, set-mining against a 12% range (and 3.5x raise OOP) is surely a losing play In this spot, however, I'd say it's breakeven-ish, because the fish is pretty likely to commit the rest of his stack if he connects with the board in any way (or if he has like 88 on JT5 etc.)
@paulwevers2109
@paulwevers2109 4 жыл бұрын
I do not like the numbers game your playing here EV+ this % that %. Its nl2. If you play that level a lot on full rings you will know the regs by then. You will know their ranges. You can make decisions based on types of players and their behaviours pre. When i know this guy has bigger range then the nit reg i will isolate the small stack with my small pair and try to get a flip there. Why? Because i can maybe know that the reg in this hand respects my game and has seen i do not 4bet him much and has seen how i win on these stakes, like i saw him do. A lot of times these 4bets are respected by guys like him or he has a monster and i can fold after trying to isolate. And because a 4bet between regs on nl2 is rare. To bring nl2 down to your mathematical thinking is overdoing it. Its nl2, its a different game. But i do respect your math. You clearly know what you are talking about. For higher stakes in my humble opinion.
@Timmevds
@Timmevds 4 жыл бұрын
Wouldve played it the same as hero. Wouldve played it the same as villain 15 aswell though
@authorlukegracias1134
@authorlukegracias1134 Жыл бұрын
Wondering if i am overplaying this hand. If i flop a set, I usually worry about straight draws, flush draws and possible two pairs making a bigger full house on the river. So I raise pre flop, raise post flop and then shove all in on the turn. I rarely see the river. Also, is there any benefit in showing the set after everyone folds.
@nicks210684
@nicks210684 3 жыл бұрын
I love the fish having KJ without even a backdoor draw.
@RJ-ox3nb
@RJ-ox3nb 3 жыл бұрын
Back door straight draw I guess 😂
@nicks210684
@nicks210684 3 жыл бұрын
@@RJ-ox3nb haha true and let’s not forget the old backdoor trips draw!
@RJ-ox3nb
@RJ-ox3nb 3 жыл бұрын
@@nicks210684 of course! 🤷‍♂️🤣
@Jkapp15
@Jkapp15 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the video. I'm definitely starting to take more things into consideration when playing PPs.
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Glad I could help!
@thiagosouza8020
@thiagosouza8020 4 жыл бұрын
4bet or fold. The 3bet from a lag in the dealer position doesnt means too strenght. Set mining doesnt works too well because he will not have a strong hand to pay us when we hit, and with an AF frequency of 4, when we miss, we should expect virtually 100% of cbets when checked to. In a scenario whit a shortstack fish coldcalling, theres a lot of dead money in the middle, then for me the best line is sometimes fold and sometimes 4bet, mainly if the villain have a high fold to 4bet stat.
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your thoughts Thiago and I agree!
@fundiver198
@fundiver198 4 жыл бұрын
Fold preflop. If we decide to call, flop is played perfect.
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
My thoughts too.
@nicks210684
@nicks210684 3 жыл бұрын
Yeah I like calling the 2 cent bet and then raising. I treat min bets like this as a check and just do what I was planning to do anyway. In this case, if fish had checked, I’d check with the intention of check raising the LAG. So I’m still just “checking” by calling the 2 cent bet.
@masteryoda9259
@masteryoda9259 3 жыл бұрын
should i call 3bets with any pocket pairs if i am in position and have good odds?
@MaydayAggro
@MaydayAggro 4 жыл бұрын
Calling the 3 bet is fine here. Vs. the villain we should be worried about, we have plenty of implied odds. We must call 15 to win 200.
@angelo90th
@angelo90th 4 жыл бұрын
I would try to get it in pre vs the fish, who’s likely to call a shove while being behind. The lag will fold 70%+ of his range with a 4bet and that sort of action. And the we flip 15% of the time and are crushed the other 15%.
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
That was my line of thinking as well. It is high variance though. Totally fine to just fold here instead. I think call preflop is probably the worst of the 3 options.
@user-gm4lo8hu4i
@user-gm4lo8hu4i 4 жыл бұрын
How can I send my hands for review?
@jimmiandersen3099
@jimmiandersen3099 3 жыл бұрын
Definitely not a call for me. I want minimum 20x implied odds because I don't get to double my stack every time that I hit a set. Only a fraction of the time. You have played many hands. Do you know how often you get to double your stack when hitting a set?
@samourchris946
@samourchris946 4 жыл бұрын
Hello Nathan! I read your article yesterday about how you did your dream and im back again to start making it with 50$ bankroll:p after your inspiration (even though i have made 1000$ 2 times and gone broke due to wrong bankroll management and tilt 😕 ). So i would like your opinion about my strategy with 88- pockets.. So if i have a pocket 88- i always limp and if someone bets 4x or smaller and we are heads up i always call in position but fold out of position (if there are more callers i call anyway due to odds).My logic for calling Ip is that except the case that you catch the set you can also steal the pot if he doesnt have anything or u bluff him etc..My logic for folding OOp is that i think its not +EV to call 4x raise OOp with low pockets because its only 12% to catch a set + he has the position advantage am i wrong with that? And finally the reason i limp with these pockets and never raise preflop is because if for example i raise 0,15 (nL5) and the small blind 3bets to 0,60(4x) its not profitable to call whereas if i limped with 0,05 and he raises 0,20(4x) it is cause i call less money to win the same amount of money if i catch the set, but all the other times that i dont catch the set im most times behind so i lose the pot.Tell me your opinion because i think limping with 88 or 77- is more +EV than raising preflop and all the pros and theory say to raise.Thank you
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for reading my post Samour and all the best building your bankroll!
@camsnow9822
@camsnow9822 4 жыл бұрын
Villains pre-flop stats say lag (what hand sample size?) That being said, im not sure how many good lags you face in micros at full ring. Playing lag seems almost counter intuitive to everything we know about micros. To put it in perspective, I play 17/15 at full ring in micros have a consistent win rate, and i feel like any more hands than that and im probably playing way too many hands oop against a bunch of people who don't have fold buttons. When I move up in stakes, I can absolutely open it up bc people have fold buttons, and I'll HAVE to open it up to be more balanced. I see no reason to do it at this level. On the subject of 4 betting pre. If im 4 betting 5-5, its not for value. j-10s is a small fav against me, so if I'm doing it, I'm turning it into a bluff/semi-bluff. I actually like 4-betting some weak hands once in a while, but I reserve that for when im up against good regs, just to keep them guessing. Not sure if laggy fits that bill. If Laggy is the type of player that is going to fold stuff like 6-6 through 10-10 and broadways that have equity, then we can do that if its lag only. If lag will defend his 3 bets with most of his range, im not a big fan. Now lets add fishy. Even if hes bad enough to call with k-7os (im assuming he's never folding to my 4 bet) im still only a small fav. I'm not a fan of giving bad players coin tosses bc | feel like im doing them a favour. I probably just fold and move on. There isn't a ton of stack depth, so my implied odds aren't amazing especially bc fishy is short stacked. Also, laggys 3-bet range is wide, so it's far from a lock that i stack him when i flop the nuts., especially as im oop.
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
Semih did not tell me what the sample size is. I agree, there aren't very many good LAGs at the micros.
@BinarySecond
@BinarySecond 4 жыл бұрын
What are we going to do with sites banning HUDs?
@fundiver198
@fundiver198 4 жыл бұрын
Play without a HUD or play on sites, that still allow them, which is actually the majority including the largest western facing site PokerStars.
@user-ye3ho5je8t
@user-ye3ho5je8t 4 жыл бұрын
Why is 26/17 considered a LAG since it has a big gap between VPIP and PFR?I understand the loose side but not the aggresion
@fundiver198
@fundiver198 4 жыл бұрын
Its a bit difficult to put a player like this into a box. The gap between VPIP and PFR is fairly large, but his 3-bet and AF are also very high, so he is a bit of a play machine, even though he does sometimes just call preflop. He is not like a really good LAG though. He is more in the bad reg category, which is hardly surpricing, since its 2NL LOL.
@nicks210684
@nicks210684 3 жыл бұрын
@@fundiver198 with his stats, I suspect he’s the kind of LAG who sometimes likes to call preflop in position with mediocre holdings thinking he can just blast you off any hand.
@badbeatslayer
@badbeatslayer 4 жыл бұрын
Set over set was never mentioned when considering pre flop call or fold
@jayd1261
@jayd1261 4 жыл бұрын
Happens so rarely not really worth talking about
@nicks210684
@nicks210684 3 жыл бұрын
Set over set is one reason why you generally want 15:1 or even 20:1 implied odds when set mining, despite the fact your chances of making your set are ~8:1. Sometimes you’ll make your set and still lose so you need to win even more when you don’t lose. The other reason is that sometimes you make your set and they just check-fold on the flop.
@percyblok6014
@percyblok6014 3 жыл бұрын
Set mine in this situation is a poor decision. Not enough implied odds to make it positive. Will go broke in long run. Much more stack relative to ours is necessary. Gotta at least be a 10:1 payoff minimum. Larger multiway pots required here. Initial 3 bet turns it into an unprofitable situation immediately.
@WIDGI
@WIDGI 4 жыл бұрын
If you 4 bet with 55, aren't you 4 betting with too many hands?
@BlackRain79Poker
@BlackRain79Poker 4 жыл бұрын
For me it would be player specific. I am not 4-betting 55 versus a Nit or TAG hardly ever. Also, the fish involved in the hand is a big factor as well.
@jmurrs910
@jmurrs910 4 жыл бұрын
I'm pretty sure it's the worst type of hand to 4-bet regardless of player type. No blockers, no post-flop playability outside of ripping a set, and often dominated by all calling hands.
@jonsweet1957
@jonsweet1957 4 жыл бұрын
@@jmurrs910 Not sure blockers make a huge difference here. Most of your hands that have blockers are going to be dominated by his worse calling hands like AK/AQ. At least 55 is ahead of both of those. Yes you are crushed vs JJ/TT-AA, depending on how wide Laggy will call with his pocket pairs, as I would just 4bet rip this. There are 2 or 3 other reasons that I think tip the scales and are more important than blockers. 1. There is a fair amount of dead money in pot already (24.5bb when it gets back to us) So you risk 100bb to win 25ish and increase your stack by 25% when they fold. 2. Lag folds and Fishy call and you will win the rest of his stack about 50% of the time and you aren't risking your entire stack vs fishy. 3. Most important i think - PROTECTION!! Laggy is soooo wide with his 3bets here. He probably has AA-99, a ton of Axs, KQs_KTs, QJs QTs, JTs other SC, as well as things like AQo KQo AJo etc etc. They are only calling with the premiums like TT or JJ+ AK and maybe a bit of AQ. All those other hands have a mountain of equity versus us and getting them to fold out all that equity is a win. I feel like he will be folding way more hands than calling and we are never dead when he calls. As far as it making your 4b range to wide, this is not a standard play that you would be making all the time. This is a very spot and player specific play so it is not going to make you too wide and even if you were in this spot 100 times, doesn't mean you will 4bet it every time and also doesn't mean you are 4betting every PP. I would just choose a low PP like 55 or 66 to do this because they are very vulnerable, there are a lot of over cards to them and some of the equity they have comes from making 4 card straights and flushes. Well the straights that 55 and 66 make are not blocked by Laggy's 3bet range. He has a few low suited connectors but not many, most of his 3bet range is broadway and high cards. YOLO 4BET RIP IS MY PLAY
@jmurrs910
@jmurrs910 4 жыл бұрын
​@@jonsweet1957 It's player-specific, yeah. I'd like to see some data on 4-betting mid-low PPs though. It's an advanced strategy in a game where advanced play isn't required and even at-times detrimental. Sure,you can blow better hands off their equity because 4-bets rep very strongly at micros. One thing that also makes it more dubious at these very low stakes is that not a ton of players are 3-betting light. Yeah, you'll get LAGs with 12-14% 3-bet rates but is 55 really the best hand to 4-bet bluff with. It has terrible playability (again) and is dominated (again). Your implied odds to make a set are decent enough to make the call 3-way, especially if it's deeper. In this exact situation, I'd never rip it in the face of a fish though because he's going to call anyways with KJ like in this example or overjam and there are much better spots to isolate and take his stack. You really wanna stack off on a flip with a fish? Also, blockers do matter. It might seem like minutia, but it is mathematically relevant. That's one reason suited wheel aces are good 3-bet candidates in the first place. This isn't anything new or earth-shattering; it's fundamental.
@toddzickel2548
@toddzickel2548 4 жыл бұрын
i don't know how u can play good poker at these stakes. i would never fold any pair to a raise to .70 from a LAG. 😂😂😂 r u joking? in fact, I'm raising the flop to .50 after hitting the set b4 the LAG. such a waste of life to play poker with pennies. how much can u really win? pennies. sure ur risk is minimal and a total waste of life...😴😴😴
@10storme
@10storme 3 жыл бұрын
believe it or not some people just enjoy playing the game and aren't trying to make a living at it
@sirbaguette8378
@sirbaguette8378 2 жыл бұрын
It's also a good place to start for newbies (like me) who want some experience with playing poker without going broke. Also a good place to practise without dedicating any large sums to do it. Also, I agree with the above, there's that too
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