I bet in 10 years he'll be telling us about why china wont last past the 2030's.

And when 2030 rolls by and China is still a nation, I want my 11 minutes and 10 seconds back with interest.

Fifteen years ago I was hearing the same dire predictions. Back then the line was 'Their banking system is a joke, it's a house of cards, just wait until the Olympics have been and gone. Everything will fall apart.' Uh-huh. Yeah, well... I pity the ordinary Chinese people who are caught in the trap of perpetual lockdown. We had our share of that in Australia, and thankfully we're past it.

The salient point to bear in mind with regards to China is that , unlike western governments, they look to the long term 15-20 years. Western politicians sadly only look to the next elections and there lies the nub of the problem.

One can go back and forth about this subject all day and night…but being a former Veteran and someone who has spent some time in the Pentagon, I can say this…without being specific… The DOD, NSA, CIA and numerous think-tanks throughout this country, study China from top to bottom every minute of every day… I think this guy has some valid points, but he’s just scratching the surface when it comes to a geo-political and strategic analysis of China…

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing …. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China’s COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think 2022. Business Basics: China’s Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.

I am actually a bit surprised by this guy, coz hardly could I find even a single point right about China in his speech. Anyone who has spent several months in China will get my point. It would be the best gift to China if all the so-called geopolitical analysts in USA are like him.

A 250 year old former country (now just an economic zone w/ nukes) is saying a 5 millennium old civilization is going to evaporate. You can't make this up😂

I was told China will collapse when I was a little kid and now I am 32.

As we all known, China has been collapsing for more than twenty years. And eventually, today, it becomes the 2nd largest economy in the world. I believe it will continue to "collapse".

Very interesting and thought provoking information shared! But still need to wait a long way for that. 🤣🤣

Very interesting however! 3:30 I was living in China 15 years, I had all my vacinations in China, returning to UK a few months ago and caught covid, 2 days sick and fine. My point! Chinese will not die but they think they will.

As Roger Stone once said to me "China doesn't have the Oil for War"

As a Chinese, I have to say that we've heard "the incoming collapse of China" for at least 3 decades. And we expect to continue hearing it for another decade.

What are the other two reasons? We got #3, what are #2 & #1? Seems important, and why wasn't it shown in this video?

Love this guy!

This guy is right. China has been dying for 5000 years, but still in the process of dying. How many thousands years needed to complete this process. So funny to have such a mindset.

The “China will surpass the US” talk is almost identical to what everyone was saying about Japan 10-15 years ago. And it never happened.

Thank you All Things Humanities. Your warn or curse alerts us and makes us do better to survive this decade. Thanks.

A look into what made America great--at least in the later part of the eighteenth century--can be found in the book Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin. The book says that newly-elected President Abraham Lincoln CHOSE to have cabinet members and other advisors with a variety of views, often in sharp conflict to his own. While Abraham Lincoln often had to make very difficult decisions, he did so with a broad knowledge of many of the factors involved.

Hey, love this content and thanks for the upload. But please could you in the intro/description let us know when this talk was given? It’s really relevant for context! Thanks!

Interesting lecture and explaination.

Considering how connected our economies are, I struggle with isolating the demise of one super power without considering our own local fiscal blemishes. The west has been exporting its inflation for decades. Hard working Chinese are going to lose their retirements due, in part, to their government enabling a property bubble. However, I see similar conditions existing close to home as well.Central banks have somehow managed to create massive asset bubbles that may result in similar 'pain'. We are in the beginnings of a quantitive tightening cycle in the mouth of an impending recession. How can anyone be throwing a rock when all of us are living in glass houses?

Potash is also used in gunpowder they may be using it for that purpose rather than use in producing rice crops.

Can we have the link to the full lecture??

It's ridiculous to claim that China "can't participate in manufacturing supply chains"; literally thousands of factories in China are open at this moment;

spot on

Yes I agree

They’ve been saying the same thing for the last 50 years😂

The oil problem is the same as the Japanese navy had during ww2

Where is the rest of his presentation?

A talented stand-up comedian!

Surely, that's been what a lot of "geopolitical experts" believed in the past 30 years...

Chinese culture had been around for some 5000 years and I think it will continue for at least 10 more years.

When he shows the shale map China seems to have a large amount of it, I'm confused .

It also depends on how our leaders get along with each other . It's up to the world leader's and their policies in the future.

Yes Please, Please make the politicians in the USA believe this.

To counter the oil problem; China is developing the silk road, which, in theory, allows roads, shipping ports, and railroads to transport energy to multiple spots throughout China. A massive undertaking indeed with plenty of problems.

China has over a 3000 year history compared to the U.S 250 years. Chinese has discipline, patience and are group focused, they will overcome any short term obstacles and rise to dominance.

We shall see...

He sounds very convincing to himself. Good job!

If you don’t even know your enemies, how do you expect to win? Surely, one can be the winner forever in Lala land.

alot of truth

Thank you peter

If everything was static i agree with Peter, but Russia as well as China recognize the problem and create new customers, allies and suppliers all the time. Its all dynamic. Russia permafrost will not freeze the pipelines because there is no customers moving their oil. They will hustle to reduce being cut off. This is not North Korea were nothing goes or functions to get in or out. Most countries realize that after COVID and the Ukraine conflict and reduce the risk. The Chinese Navi has not been in a hot war since I was born 1974, so their reach and capabilities + not high ranking officer with any experience might be worse then Russia unless they take on undefended islands.

Peter Zeihan deserves the Gordon Chang Award for his efforts!😆

I've been saying the same thing.

A big call. People get annoyed at not accessing the internet.

Peter is great, but I regard him more as an informer and entertainer than a serious geopolitical analyst. He's emotive and his facts are often wrong so I take him with a container ship of salt.

From Forbes; _"The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the aerospace industry and the mining industry. The three largest employers in the U.S are Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot"_ You do the Math.

Feel good didn't it ... I did forget my troubles for a while

Right maybe you mentioned the drought that has drained their river system. The factors leading to this dramatic drought are getting stronger and the drought will get worse. They do have access to coal but this will only worsen their continental heat wave. They are in trouble . The US will also have a profound drought in the Southwest.

Interesting contrarian view. Most points not well evidenced. But the key observation that China is dependent on oil imports mostly from the Middle East and that such imports are easily interdicted both by US surface and submarine forces was well taken. In addition, China has an export based economy that would be shut down globally by the US Navy. China is building a navy but it is short on substantial ships and submarines and it takes decades to build a navy that is actually effective, well-trained, and has first-rate battle tactics.

Nice idea to get liked by an American audience and thus generate a significant income with a series of lectures simply by telling people what they deep down want to hear. What is sold here is the pleasant feeling that arises when a possibility is opened up that one's own longings could still be fulfilled. The prospect of a safe and secure future is given space by the postulate of China's economic, political and military inferiority and the audience is sedated and lulled with the drug of a rosy future. A certain level of plausibility that satisfies minimum requirements is completely sufficient, the actual truth content plays no role at all for the successful effect.

Good

Entertaining at some times ☺️

I have heard this many times before, yet China is still standing.

would love to see Peter Zeihan debating Martin Jacques!

Same as america. They have shell oil too. Look at the graph when he talks about oil.

Oh geez!

To the people that say “ i knew this was coming” Cmon, you did not, this dude slapped everyone in the face with his recent book and turned conventional wisdom on its head.

Interesting video!

Very Very interesting. Great video. I hope you are right about China.

As a humble guess, I think China will certainly last longer than this decade, which is just < 8 years from this point. Let's revisit this later as to who is making a better prediction.

They'll survive, of course they will, these countries always find a way to respond and adapt.

I been hearing about his for the last 20 years about China. When it happens, it is not because of these analysis, but an inevitable of all economies and empires.

Prioritising health in a country where the air is thick with pollution, rivers are full of heavy metals, and there is literally not a single bird in the sky.

But .. the map of shale clearly seems to show a very large shale area in China, and it can be brought online quickly, apparently, and Russia is looking for places to export its oil as the EU is cutting them off?

I think I agree with his analysis. American problems are internal.

There is no lack of conman in anywhere on earth, particularly in the USA !

He did not even talk about investment on the American economy by CHina like pork processing companies, and farm real estate or land near Air Force and other military installations.

Most important tho alWays move hands and arms When talking for more effect😂

With the current threat of nuclear annihilation, I'm surprised this fellow is only singling out one country. Everything is connected.

Zeihan's theory of money may not be on point, but the possibility of him being close to accurate on resources is quite an eye opener.

What about a land route from Iran to China?

Try to get a glass of non-toxic drinking water any place in China. Try to find out how many cities are under Marshal Law in China.

Brilliant analysis. Thank you.

This guy has the movement, delivery and facial expressions of a standup comic while trying to make broad and highly questionable claims about current and future conditions in China. I wouldn't bank on it, but he obviously believes what he believes and wants to entertain you as he worries you about that. I don't expect geopolitical commentary to be the same sober monotone delivery from every pundit, but this delivery undercuts the seriousness and credibility of the speech content.

yep.

Well, now, that's about the most encouraging international news I've had in the last couple years.

Yes, , Just another load of anti-China rhetoric. Where's the in depth analysis to support his thesis? Did he study history in school?

Peter Zeihan should be appointed as director of China Strategic Broadcasting Bureau and he will be paid 100 million yuan per year for his brilliant broadcasting work

Both Peter Zeihan and George Friedman are social engineers much more than analysts. They create an US-centric version of possible future and attempt to sell it as the only possible one.

Since 90's the west kept telling China is done and collapsing, till now they keep whingeing 😅🤦

He, he, he.. Americans should travel more. Not just to see what’s really happening in the world but to see what the other 95% of human beings think of them and their politics. This guy misses the mark on almost every subject I’ve seen him speak about…. Bitcoin.. the Economy.. and now China.

The scenario could change in the next 5-10 years. Europe is in the process of becoming less dependent on Russian oil and gas. So Russia will be forced to look for new customers and this is where China comes in. There are still hardly any pipelines to China, but that could change quickly. And with this secure energy supply over land, in the future you will no longer be so dependent on oil tankers.

Wow - if you are only half correct those are ASTOUNDING figgures , Thanks for the eye opener.

Yes he is right

So let me get this straight: a country and civilisation that has lasted close to 5000 years is going to have trouble lasting another 10?

Zeihan's last book "Accidental superpower" almost all his predictions in that book have failed materialized. Just take all these so called experts with a grain of salt.

Being an Indian who lived in and out of Chiina many times, there is only one thing I can say. It's the people who builds and destroys a nation. If you have a free thinking nation that stands together, nothing can destroy it.

China imports a large percentage of nearly all commodities to keep its factories running. They use as much oil as the US but need to import 75 to 80% of it. USA imports only about 25% of its oil and most comes from Canada and Mexico. To beat China in a war the adversary only needs to sink the commodity ships going to China, then their economy stops, along with their ability to wage war. That's why the US has over 140 submarines and is building the fleet out to nearly 200 subs.

I suspect the Chinese economy will adjust similarly to how the United States did moving from an industrial producer to a consumer industry with service, tech and financial sectors. The biggest challenge for them will be handling this transition without unemployment going over 10%. 10% of 2 billion is a lot of angry people, especially people who used to have jobs that permitted savings and wealth gain. Compared to how it is for the "lower" industries in the US where large sectors of employed workers are in stagnated wage gains that can't keep up with the rising costs of living. A cost that is fueled by the huge wealth gains many Americans can make in other sectors (think Walmart employee vs Developer both living in San Francisco). Still, it seems pretty obvious that they are looking to expand their export markets to Africa in hopes that they can keep the industrial sector going as well as possible and employ as many factory workers as possible. They have a lot of central control of their economy and the leaders are fairly serious about managing their countries growth and less preoccupied with Reality TV Show style politics like we have here in the US. I don't think it will be a smooth path, but I don't see the train derailing. *edit After looking at recent Chinese leadership and attitude, it looks like they are going to try to be more towards North Korean like isolation and posturing. This is not a good hallmark for successful economic gains.

This man seems to be well informed on important issues. My question is this: why is the US spending money it does not have, in some of the same ways China does???

Well, China has been around for five thousand years, I think I’ll live long enough to see China in existence next decade.

Since 2000 + years, the Chinese nation had endured many catastrophes of magnitude which would have wiped out other nations.

Interesting, engaging and enjoyable talk. I’d like to hear more from this man.

For anyone wanting the full lecture, look up Peter's Iowa Swine Day lecture from June of this year

Yeah Right!!!!! Keep Dreaming

These Americans live in their own dream world, they see things happening in other countries, but fail to see that they are already there.