She won because she was amazing, honest, fearless and she was doing it for art, not for trophies (I’m looking at you Cooper). Her character is insanely richly written, such witty and beautiful, little confusing story. She had amazing range of emotions and development. I was all out war in comment sections last two weeks after Sag, my intuition was screaming, no one will stop her, even though every media outlet and people immediately switched to Lily. I’m glad that the Academy went that way, it saved reputation them not being driven by hype but merit of work. Lily’s big mistake was her going in Leading. This form of manipulation , using her heritage as main reason for her win was mistake. And fact that Emma won before shouldn’t stay on her way to win another one(Jessica and Sally on stage proof of that). We always complain about good actors not winning or snubbed or winning for wrong movies, Emma is lucky she won on right times and right movies. Amazing and magical La La Land and her personal apex mountain Poor Things. She has all potential to be next legend ❤ I’m looking forward❤️ I slowly developed my love for her. I didn’t much liked her, but after seeing Easy A, I’m in awe has wonderfully she grows in her craft❤ amazing 😻

You’ve done some great analysis work here. I’m impressed - well done!

I had Emma Stone for SO LONG! But a few days before the Oscars I switched to Lily… wish I had went with my gut rather than following everybody else’s predictions ☹️ You almost made me change when I watched your final predictions video!

I'm Singaporean. Just earlier this season, Singapore's rapidly rising filmmaker Anthony Chen was conferred Academy membership. I in NO WAY suggest he voted for Emma, but I wanna share my experiences watching KOTFM vs Poor Things. After I finished KOTFM, my mind kept going back to the score, the magnificent cinematography and editing, etc. It was only a day or two later then I started reflecting on Gladstone's performance. However, immediately when the ending scene and theme of Poor Things came on, I was resisting the urge of kneeling before the screen and bow down to Emma Stone. I don't know how many international voters felt the way I did.

I honestly believe Lily Gladstone took a risk of being a sacrificial lamb to gain a win for KOTFM by going for the gusto and campaigning for Best Actress as opposed to Best Supporting Actress and it really hurt her chances as he character was really not a leading role but rather supporting. They also tried to chance that she may win because of the racial narrative but again it backfired because Lily Gladstone hasn’t had much maturity in the industry compared to Michelle Yeoh. KOTFM unfortunately wasn’t as strong of a contender or favorite compared to its counterparts, that’s why it didn’t get many precursors or nab a single Oscar win. I personally was rooting for Emma Stone because hands down, her Bella Baxter character was a career defining moment.

For me it is always Emma. It can be translate as “the best performance” triumph over any narratives. But we can be too naive to cash that idea. Another point to note that, Barbie performance in this award season eventually makes a lot of voters see clearer which film produced/directed by a woman worth embracing for years to come. Do bear in mind that Emma is also a producer of her film like what Margot did. I am not trying to say which film is better than another. But since the nominations have set in stone, with a wider spectrum of views and factors, wouldn’t you want to champion an actor who bare her soul for her film, who is also the producer of her film? Lily Gladstone’s nomination confusion aside, her performance would have been sufficient to earn her trophy if the voters felt compelling enough to give her regardless which category she is going to be. For instances like Kate Winslet for The Reader, it can be arguably a supporting role as well. Hence ‘compelling’ is the keyword. Lily is GOOD, but not to the extend of VERY VERY good for the voters dying to award her. I can only say she didn’t bring a lot more to the table like other nominees. Even Sandra Hüller has 2 films nominated for Best Pictures. Whereas Lily category confusion already was the factor as the starting point to overcome for this season. For her to be always labelled as Oscar nominee for ‘Best Actress in Leading Role’ is already a BIG WIN.

Love this video and well done for getting the prediction right 👏🏻

I honestly feel this should have been a two-way race between Emma Stone and the brilliant Sandra Huller.

SO DESERVED. This was the one category I cared about. She truly created a one of a kind character.

Range of emotions and character development is the mainstay of any oscar winner. Lily Gladesrone in The Killers is akin to the Michelle Yeo's Crouching Tiger. Very tonal mild to midrange emotions, whereas Yeo's and Emma's winning screenplays displayed very dynamic ranges.

Good job, Luke

Excellent breakdown!! 👏 Juz to add, Jessica Chastain did overcome the Bafta snub to win the Oscar just 2 yrs ago. On yo qns on whether Lily wld've won if she goes supp? I feel tt she wld've given Da'Vine a run for her $! They wld likely hav split the hauls o awards 50/50 n it will be a nail-biter till when the envelope is opened juz like Best Actress!

Lily Gladstone did not win the Oscar because her character in Killers of the Flower Moon is not a central character. It is more focused on Leonardo DiCaprio. I think the Oscars are looking for a central protagonist that has more actions in every movie. She would have been nominated for Best Supporting Actress better but still she will be beaten up by Da'Vine Joy Randolph.

What happened to Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will teach other women that an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress is not beneath them.

final oscar voting time line is the difference between michelle yeoh won and lily gladstone lost at the Oscar. final Oscar voting began 4 days after michelle won sag. so for those 6 days of voting Oscar voters are fully aware of michelle's sag win. in the case of lily, final Oscar voting began 4 days after emma won bafta and 3 days before lily won sag. so for the first 3 days of voting, Oscar voters probably voted for emma knowing that she had just won bafta 4 days ago. so emma had the momentum, and then when lily won sag, voters only have another 3 days to vote. so another word is michelle has a full 6 days of momentum for Oscar voters to vote for her, while lily only has 3 days of momentum for Oscar voters to vote for her, and emma has the other 3 days of momentum for oscar voters to vote for her. other factor also why michelle won and lily lost is that michelle's movie is the front runner that sweeps everything to the point where it helps jamie lee curtis to win as well. where as lily's movie has not much enthusiasm in other categories other than her best actress category. final oscar voting time line last year is so important that it also helps brendan fraser to win the oscar over austin butler as well.

Do you think if lily gladstone would’ve went for supporting she’d have won? And do you think it would’ve gave Sandra Huller a chance at lead?

She won because she's AWESOME ! And not only in the movie ^^ She's also one of Hollywood's most BELOVED sweethearts EVER

Cause she gave the best performance. That's it❤❤❤❤

As an expand to what you are arguing about "Bella Baxter" being a caricature in the wrong hands, i believe that many Academy members had tried to imagine a different actress playing the Leading Role in "Poor Things" and failed to do so. Each of the 5 nominated performances could be easily pulled off by an other equally great actress ( i am not suggesting that a not Native American actress could had played "Molly" in KOTFM but i want to believe that there are many indigenous actresses out there that hopefully will have the chance to take off their careers just like Lily did this year). In the case of "Poor Things" i don't think that this was possible. Bella Baxter came to life because of Emma Stone's fearless, groundbreaking, all-in performance. "Poor Things" as a movie was a big artistic as well as box office success due to Emma Stone who basically ran the awards campaign on her own ( Lanthimos and Ruffalo participated too but not as much as Stone did) without having the budget that other movies had. The audience went to the cinemas to watch "Emma Stone's best performance to date" and then the majority of the viewers fell in love with the movie itself."Poor Things" was the second film of the year after "Oppenheimer" which achieved both . Of course the numbers are incomparable ( almost 1billion to 110millions) but let's don't forget the fact that Yorgos Lanthimos is known for directing "weird" films that make you feel uncomfortable and they do not aim to become blockbusters. Plus, PT had a limited theatrical release and an age limitation in many countries. On the other hand there is"Barbie" which was a tremendous box office and marketing hit but wasn't as critical acclaimed as it was supposed to be. That factor indicates how powerful and influential Stone has become after her first Oscar. Her choices so far prove that she is not going to follow an easy path concerning the projects she is getting involved to and this is something that many voters took under consideration

Lily just had too much to overcome. Not being a name (most best actress winners are stars), a weak passionless movie, lack of screentime, unshowy/subtle role, missing BAFTA which revealed a lack of international support you can overcome one or maybe even a couple of these, there's plenty of best actress winners who have but all of it? No way. The red flags were so glaringly apparent and made it feel confident sticking with emma til the very end. I really don't think the vote count was even that close in the end, frankly

Emma Stone deserve every bit of that award pull off out of this world performance made me love the film so I was very happy she won plus she is the main actress in that movie no offense to Lilly Gladstone but she wasn’t the main actress more of supporting role to be real

Here you go: 9:00

Emma's win for Bella Baxter is one of the greatest wins for the Best Actress Oscar EVER!!! It's unlike any performance I've ever seen in a film. Great video. Great analysis.

Even though I stood by Lily, I knew you were right, Luke. The BAFTA miss was a red flag for Lily. Emma was this year’s Frances McDormand - she performed consistently throughout awards season, so her strength was never in doubt.

If I recall correctly, Emma Stone is the first person to win multiple acting Oscars for non-dramatic movies. Her first win was for a musical and her 2nd for a comedy. This is quite a feat! Also, I think it is important to consider when the final voting take place when predicting the winners from now on. For the last 2 years in a row, the acting winners being identical to the last ceremony to occur before voting start has been consistent. This year, voting for winners began after BAFTA (while it was after SAG last year).

Yorgos Lanthimos has directed Olivia Colman and Emma Stone and they got an Oscar. Now he needs to direct Rachel Weisz again and she can get that second Oscar for Best Actress. The Favourite trifecta will be complete

Emma Stone MUCH deserved the Oscar! I was rooting for her the whole time!

She won because she is the best

Congrats for sticking w Emma!! 🎉✌️ I reckon only you and Award Contender's Brian Rowe stick w her while the vast majority (99.5%) of Oscars experts/pundits follow the herd n switch camp to Lily in the last few days leading up to the Oscars, even thot they were super unsure of their final choice. All of them are totally blindsided by SAG!! 😂 I luv that the SAG stats are broken!! so that no expert/pundit can be 100% sure or just default to SAG's winners next year!! 🤗

If I can add one more factor, I believe it was Jamie Lee Curtis. She praised Michelle Yeoh in every interview. She even chanted "Michelle-Yeoh, Michelle-Yeoh" at her SAG win. JLC was liked by voters enough to win herself an Oscar and helped to create the momentun for Michelle Yeoh. Lily Gradstone did not have Jamie Lee Curtis.

Emma carried the movie. Lily didn't want supporting because of DaVine.

@LukeHearfield I think Yorgos realizes that movies with strong women leads works better for his Oscar chances which is a pretty impressive realization. I wonder if he'll avoid making movies with strong male leads. Indeed, Emma Stone did a followup movie with Yorgos, right?

Because Emma had the most unique, original, one of a kind male or female performance of the year!I think SAG gave the award to Lily to welcome her warmly as a member of the union. But still Emma had the edge, as her performance was something you have never seen before. I think I will never forget the wave of overwhelming feelings I had when I left the cinema after watching Poor Things

Giving the Oscar to Lilly Gladstone because she is Native American is not fair. All prizes should be according to merit, not race nor identity. Emma Stone was unbelievable in her role, regardless of her skin color. Stop the Woke insanity.

While I think Poor Things is Emma Stone’s best performance, for me personally Sandra Huller should have won for Anatomy of a Fall. Shame she got overlooked throughout awards season. I’m glad Justine Triet won for the screenplay.

I think that Lily Gladstone will get nominated again for the Oscar in best actress for their next big film project. In an way the race between Gladstone vs Stone remind me of the race between Holly Hunter versus Angela Bassett in which one actress was in an more critical acclaim and more nominated and the other had just another acting nomination . One had the chance of making history and the other had previously been nominated before. I hate to say this but nobody remember Holly Hunter in The Piano and mostly everyone remember Angela Bassett in What's love got to do with it. No Lily Gladstone would had lose to DJR

Ecstatic Emma won. Personally, the best performance of the four acting categories.

“Counter-argument: grow up” is a line that should be used at any debate over anything from now on.

I hope Lily can show her range in other films. I always thought a win for Killers of the Flower Moon would've type cast her. I think she's a great actress and deserves to show her metal. In Supporting Actress her narrative would've carried her all the way to the stage.

Also, Poor Things ended up being extremely well regarded by the academy, winning 4 oscars on the night, and most likely ending up second behind Oppenheimer

I think they thought she’d have a chance winning over Emma than Davine so they moved her to lead and no, Davine probably would have still swept

Actually Luke, I would love to watch a video about Hollywood and their relationship to Indigenous actors and movies.

Team Hüller. Subtlety is overlooked in favor of flashy, weird and showy. But Sandra was the best.

It was a showy role, weird but with great costumes and production. And the Oscars voters are too shortsighted to award a Michelle Yeoh and a Lily Gladstone back to back. And Emma Stone has been the favorite since its movie release. But very interesting That Lilys SAG win didn't guarantee her The Oscar. Hmmm, interesting.

Where did the hype for lilly Gladstone come from? Sandra huller gave a stronger performance than lilly Gladstone. Even carey mulligan gave a stronger performance than lilly Gladstone. Killers of the flower moon was long and boring.

@LukeHearfield Probably easier for Emma Stone to do that than Barry Keoghan, right? Still goes to show, even as gay friendly as some straight folks are, that male nudity still makes straight males uncomfortable. Saltburn got a lot of conversation, but no nominations (but, from my POV, Saltburn did have problems so its provocative parts were more of its selling point as opposed to a really good story, and it's not like Elordi showed himself off when he could have). Go watch Fellow Travelers to see a much more daring take on male nudity, and while there's no Keoghan peen on display, what is shown is pretty surprising. Also, it would have been nice to hear why Sandra Huller missed out, though it is hard for an international film to win for best actress even if half her lines (or more) are in English.

If Emma shall to lose the Best Actress, it should be to Annette Bening or Sandra Huller not Lily Gladstone. Also, winning SAG doesn't mean ALL of the voters of SAG voted for Lily. For all we know, Emma and Lily split the votes close to 50-50.

if awarded strictly on merit: Sandra>Emma>Carrie>Lily>Annette

Personally, LOVE the Emma win. That’s who I felt should win. However, I do hope Hollywood stops thinking that people “other than white” only need to get cast for a role, when “the role calls for a certain race/ethnicity”. That’s nonsense. In reality, most times, a role can be played by anyone. Especially given that most movies are based in the US, in modern times, and the US is a melting pot. i.e. There’s no reason why The Birdcage would have to be two white guys as our main gay couple. No reason why Andy in the Devil Wears Prada couldn’t be Indian (even if based on a book. The character could literally be anyone), it doesn’t alter the outcome of the plot. It’s irrelevant for the purposes of the story. And this is true of many movies (not all of course). This is just to say, that I hope Lily gets work, and that Hollywood doesn’t think she can only get cast “when the role calls for a Native American person”. That’s so incredibly restricting and unfair, especially when Hollywood had no issue white washing many historic films, where other races could have gotten employment. White people have played Egyptians, Persians, Chinese, etc. 👈🏼 this kind of thinking is what kept Michelle Yeoh from being recognized before EEAAO. She was way overdue at least with a nomination. Anyway, I hope Lily works again soon.

Killers of the Flower Moon is the third Martin Scorsese film that went 0/10 along with Gangs of New York and The Irishman.

Emma gave the best performance & lily G should have been in Supporting Category --She was only in 25% of KILLERS. Period.

My guy is yapping so much, jesus Christ.

I think if Lily was nominated as best supporting actress, she would’ve absolutely beaten Da’Vine 1000%.

Gonna guess it's because she received the most votes.

OK the thing with Lily Gladstone is people didn’t even care about her performance they care that she was Native American. I am so glad Native American people are getting more representation and media and don’t get me wrong. Her performance is absolutely amazing for me. She was a total runner up, but Emma did seriously kill it definitely deserved it

Maetin scorcese needs to dail it back. No more l9ng boring epic movies anymore. The irishman was long and boring,same with killers. 10 oscar nominations, ZERO wins.

A Native American actress 'making history' is of way less concern to voters who aren't American.

Emma Stone won for playing a version of Barbie who's named Bella and has sex. She is spotless perfect in the movie and it's her career best, but don't fool ourselves to think that the character Bella is 100% unique. Bella's arc is the same as Barbie's but on a bigger / longer scope, and "made for adults"

ya simple, 'better film', better performance. oscar has been getting it right Acting wise, regardless of Political Correctiveness.

I was so very pleased that Emma won the Oscar for what I consider to be her best acting performance to date. Judging by her reaction she wasn't expecting to win, just like Olivia Coleman, an interesting parallel there. A slight aside regarding Cillian Murphy, let's face it Oppenheimer as a real person wasn't known for suddenly breaking out into a song & dance routine, looking a clips of him he was very contained and the emotion was in his eyes and face. So Cillian played him perfectly and to do that on an IMAX was an additional feat in itself. Also, his performance was the film, so a very well deserved Oscar. I'm so pleased that my two favourite films of the year, won big at the Oscars, it makes a welcome change.

I don't believe Lily Gladstone campaigning for the Lead category hurt her chances of a win. For those of you who don't remember, there are plenty of actors who've been nominated or won Best Lead category while they are clearly supporting characters in their respective films: _Anthony Hopkins - The Silence of the Lambs _ Nicole Kidman- The Hours _ Olivia Coleman- The Favorite _Amy Adams- American Hustle The list goes on. I agree with Luke on what killed Lily's chances at winning the OSCAR. Killers of the Flower Moon just didn’t have passion behind it. The film did receive 10 Academy Award nominations, so the voters actually watched it. Unfortunately , it was a respected but not beloved movie. Nevertheless, Lilly Gladstone is now an Academy Award nominee. I pray to God Hollywood execs don't screw up and cast her in good and varied roles. Furthermore, it is still a harder climb for actors/actresses of color in the film industry. Before she won the best supporting actress award, Da'Vine Joy Randolph echoed this sentiment. At the end of the day, she is still a Black woman, and she has to be cautiously optimistic with her choices. And basically fight not to be pigeonholed in her career. Danielle Brooks has also stated she would like access to a variety of roles just like Cate Blanchett and Emma Stone. Speaking of the latter, Emma Stone winning her second Oscar was well deserved ( even if I preferred Sandra Hueller 's performance in Anatomy of the Fall). To be clear, I did not like Poor Things AT ALL, but I did enjoy Emma's performance. Once again, the film is very problematic, but the performances were excellent. Emma always pushes herself as an acctress, and I respect her for that.

Good lord, 30 minutes of nonlinear rambling. yeesh.

And unfortunately Lily Gladstone won’t have much opportunities as Emma stone and Billie eilish have. They are typical white, privileged performers with very famous connections in Hollywood who can back them up at anytime; also their work is mainstream. Lily on the other hand dabbles on indie films and Native American reservation issues, themes which are not easy to sell to mainstream Hollywood, or producers do not even bother to gamble at them due to lack of blockbuster potential, or there is just no interest from the general public to buy it. The Academy really messed this up; I think it will be a long time (another 34 years, or maybe never again) before we see Lily (or another Native American) to be nominated at the Oscars, as there is an endemic disease crippling AMPAS with their treatment of Native American and Latino performers.

Emma Stone won 2 Oscars over 2 Better performances by European Actrsses. Oscars are so Local

oscarssowhite

The Academy wasn’t about to make history in the Lead Actress category two years in a row. They were going to restore order and they did.

Example of being saucy that put off the Academy: Brokeback Mountain

Because she belong to the Holywood mainstream. Really she deserved a second Oscar??? 🤨🤔😖 I think in Glenn Close and many others actresses higher 😐 The real Best Leading Actress this year 2024 was Sandra Hüller 🇩🇪, by "Anatomy of a fall". 💪🏻 USA (Oscars) and UK (Bafta) aren't the world 🌎

oscar is really the gay super Bowl as we can see

Emma didn't deserve the win Emma just played another Oscar Quirky Baity role. Play a character with disability + put on a British accent + lots of nudity for no reason other than fan service = Oscar Win

1) The academy's preference for less subtle performances with more screentime 2) Racism/glorification of whiteness

This is going to be a take that people dislike, but I’ve noticed that actresses who get naked tend to have an upper hand when it comes to getting an Oscar. If it’s a choice between someone fully clothed and someone naked and bouncing all over, the naked woman is probably going to get it. People swore Lily would win and I was like “Emma got naked, they’re giving it to her”. Is that some weird kind of misogyny where a bunch of creepy men are not-so-subtly pushing women to get naked in order to make their careers?

This video has left me inspired and motivated to chase my dreams. Thank you!