Why Liquidity Matters More Than Anything Else w/ Raoul Pal & Michael Howell

Рет қаралды 60,769

Жыл бұрын

A bull market in liquidity started in October of 2022, and we know liquidity leads asset markets.
Raoul speaks with Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, about why the biggest force in global macro is pointing towards a new bull market in equities.
CHAPTERS:
1 Understanding Global Liquidity 00:46
2 Liquidity & Central Banks 08:42
3 Is it Possible Central Bankers Actually Know What They're Doing? 0:19:15
4 Where Are We in the Global Monetary Cycle? 0:30:12
5 The Takeaways 0:45:08
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Пікірлер: 98

@heteshjoosery8542 Жыл бұрын

The most timely interview , almost the only interview ive watched that fits what we are seeing

@troy8231 10 ай бұрын

Right and it’s still the case. It’s shocking how so few experts are actual experts.

@leestephens1670 Жыл бұрын

One of the best conversations I have listened to 👏👏👏

@fredcroft7517 Жыл бұрын

Soem really solid thinking here. Raoul deserves thanx for putting this together.

@philtuljxen5466 Жыл бұрын

Love that exchange and we need more of this, many thanks

@NoMoWarplz Жыл бұрын

Awesome. 3rd with Rauol Pal this morning. ;)

@prula Жыл бұрын

Michael should offer his book as an audio book!

@rednose1966 Жыл бұрын

I am buying the capital wars book

@impermanenthuman8427 Жыл бұрын

Agree we need as audio, I read with my ears while driving, no time to sit and stare at a book I’m too busy

@joannemeeks745 Жыл бұрын

Very interesting interview.

@acuero29 Жыл бұрын

I learned so much . thanks Raoul

@Rogcljon Жыл бұрын

I need to listen to this again but this already does feel like a lightbulb moment for me. It has left me with a lot of questions floating in my kind though. Thanks

@peterbedford2610 25 күн бұрын

Its been a year....the man is on point

@johnpaulnash3251 Жыл бұрын

fantastic content

@zuu1701 Жыл бұрын

Awesome guest

@IsaacWendt Жыл бұрын

I get that you need balance sheet capacity to roll the debt but it's this controlled by rates? When rates are higher you just can't borrow as much against an asset? 1:7 Spending to refinancing

@karencarswell5706 Жыл бұрын

What are those assets that you should own ??

@johnfreeman9766 Жыл бұрын

Monetary hedges like gold, cryto or tech. But what about broader commodities?

@kurtjensen5798 Жыл бұрын

Date of interview: April 17th 2023.. just something I always like to verify before watching with these uploads.. don't want to waste time on outdated stuff..

@mgarduno606 Жыл бұрын

Agreed. One month later I think is still relevant for these high level views

@troy8231 10 ай бұрын

@@mgarduno6064 months later it’s still relevant. As an investor, when it comes to financial markets and portfolio allocation, Michael Howell is one of the rare few who is almost always on point and a great resource to have.

@sonpollo8995 Жыл бұрын

Yanis varoufakis has talked about taxing robots and AI while humans enjoy a day at the beach.

@davidcoursey5041 Жыл бұрын

spot on

@youregonnaattackthem Жыл бұрын

How can this be discussed more? Is Jeff Snyder correct?

@artkidolee2162 Жыл бұрын

I think he said there ll be a dollar shortage is right

@daredreamdo Жыл бұрын

excellent!

@electrocademyofficial893 Жыл бұрын

Superb, thank you

@boazklarman541 Жыл бұрын

Thanks!

@RealVisionFinance 7 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching.

@fastpistonx Жыл бұрын

First Class.😊

@impermanenthuman8427 Жыл бұрын

Nice book placement on the shelf behind him 😄

@generationgap416 Жыл бұрын

The Dollar is a great position?

@ruicmota Жыл бұрын

Jeff Snider has an radical opposite point of view concerning what will come from here

@deanswartz5812 Жыл бұрын

Aging investors need income, so any duration play needs to provide stable income, assets that don't provide it must fall. Adding liquidity while not providing income does what ?

@Johnson-Sequoia Жыл бұрын

Its not necessarily that we want a market crisis. Its that my work per share of s&p purchase has diminished incredibly over the past 10 years and i want a mean reversion either my salary needs to go up or S&P down. S&P down is both easier and more likely than my wages going up unfortunately. So hopium.

@wordslouderthanbombs Жыл бұрын

Talk to Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK. The growth of base money does not correlate with rising inflation. Quantity theory of Money is simple and appealing, but its wrong.

@thesolitaryadventurer Жыл бұрын

Neither guest said it did. We had money growth from 2009 to 2020 and no inflation - just asset pricing growth. Handing out money to people during a supply shock caused inflation. What they're saying is that the money growth caused debasement.

@wordslouderthanbombs Жыл бұрын

@@thesolitaryadventurer Thank you for this thoughtful reply. Tell me what the difference is between debasement and inflation?

@wordslouderthanbombs Жыл бұрын

@@thesolitaryadventurer 2/ Assets went up between 09-2020 because of zero rate treasuries.

@williamcatt5570 Жыл бұрын

Moar Cowbell. More than Mr Walken could even imagine.

@JohnTaylor-ts8wk Жыл бұрын

China is ahead of the curve because they are the world's factory. Orders slow, then production slows, then you see employment start to cut. Service sectors aren't immune to the employment cuts, but they dont show stress as early in the cycle.

@jarekpiotrowski742 Жыл бұрын

Universal basic assets - that’s why blockchain and NFTs are importantly it allows for citizens to own parts of the new economy

@ThaiRoundhouse Жыл бұрын

Why is a deeply negative term premium in the treasury market evidence of a collateral shortage?

@ricardom.2619 Жыл бұрын

whats the TLDR?

@freefallappz Жыл бұрын

Markets have bottomed, More stimulus & money debasement coming. Buy gold, crypto and long duration assets

@MB-tz7by 9 ай бұрын

It's the liquidity bros

@Kindafu Жыл бұрын

Novel idea: TAX THE F’N CORPORATIONS

@walkonearthofficial Жыл бұрын

9:19

@iVETAnsolini Жыл бұрын

I’m in a piping union and we just got a $3 an hour raise from the contractors. So, inflation imo is never coming back down

@vincentmurphy9252 Жыл бұрын

Why do rates come down? Rates going to 8%

@Prash1c Жыл бұрын

@22:46 "japanification" with respect to consumer behaviour will not happen because of the culture of savers and hyper-hard-work that is unique to Japan, which contrasts with Western/American style "spend, spend, spend". Japanification with respect to CB policy, perhaps, because the BoJ seems to be at the spearhead of experimental monetary policy. Thanks for the free lunch, thought to share some lunch with you too.

@ivivivir Жыл бұрын

Gold is up 10% yearly compared to dollar last 20 years... Please review your data source.

@williamenersen8076 Жыл бұрын

116

@Carutsu Жыл бұрын

Stop 👏 dividing 👏 things 👏 by 👏fed 👏 balance 👏 sheet 👏

@journalofstitchery9584 Жыл бұрын

AI and robotic as a technological replacement to employees also can give advancement to reshore manufacturing back to America. For eighty years large companies have moved manufacturing globally. American made, American jobs, American infrastructure, American GDP, immigration for new Americans ... NOT more QE. That is our future tax base. Better policies, better politicians, better planning, better housing, better healthcare, better planning, not just throwing money at it.

@42dunbar Жыл бұрын

His liquidity model doesn’t make sense heading into a recession. The Fed is normally aggressively easing (providing liquidity) as we head into recession. That doesn’t prevent the stock market from selling off.

@shakespear7675 Жыл бұрын

The stock market usually rallies into a recession start

@42dunbar Жыл бұрын

@@shakespear7675 He said the market bottomed in October based on his liquidity model.

@1Bob4All Жыл бұрын

Do you feel the FED is aggressively providing liquidity going into this recession? (I do not.)

@42dunbar Жыл бұрын

@@1Bob4All Not yet, but once unemployment starts to rise they will pivot from tightening to easing.

@SteakMoney Жыл бұрын

@@42dunbar I've been following this guy for last couple years he's been right about everything so far

@gdbry Жыл бұрын

Raoul, what happens to liquidity when Janet Yellen has to refill all of the accounts she is now draining?

@evanlebzu1 Ай бұрын

How to find global Liquidity index or measure?

@eccentricccc Жыл бұрын

Markets don't bottom when yield curve are inverted... Also Recessions don't start until the yield curve flattens... Unless you are trying to predict a DOUBLE DIP recession... Also this is not pricing ANY China/Taiwan escalation plus the de-dollaring that is occurring right now. You are pricing in a PERFECT SCENARIO. AKA SOFT LANDING>

@bakedbrotatoes Жыл бұрын

Right, and there's a difference between liquidity to banks for emergency measure, and liquidity provided to the real economy. Powell has promised high interest rates until inflation eases, so another year of 5% interest. With 70Trilliion of debt refinanced in that time... Forcing more layoffs and bankruptcies. Why be bullish on liquidity when lending is stopping cold? I'm missing something in their Convo, but Im not sure what

@42dunbar Жыл бұрын

I agree. He sounds too married to his liquidity model. Historically the Fed starts to aggressively ease (provide liquidity) heading into recessions and markets still manage to sell off. The only real bullish scenario I can come up with from here is a soft landing and few people still believe that is going to happen. Of course Raoul has been saying to buy tech stocks and crypto for over a year now so I understand why he likes this guy’s view…

@LightYagami_99 Жыл бұрын

And the soft landing is not considered a base case scenario

@joeshmoe-hr3qh Жыл бұрын

Bitcoin should perform best in this environment

@Growingwiser550 Жыл бұрын

😂. Liquidity isn’t possible with, what is is now, 31 trillion? That would be tantamount to the state of Florida stacked 12” tall with stacks of fiat 100 dollar bills however, the dollars have to be backed by something of value rather that the full weight of the US military.

@waynebeale4292 Жыл бұрын

XRPL and other crypto networks being readied

@DegenerateSpeculator Жыл бұрын

Yes listen to Raoul, who was calling for higher crypto prices while they were dropping. Another swing and a miss 😂

@DegenerateSpeculator Жыл бұрын

Wrong again Raoul 🙃

@generationgap416 Жыл бұрын

This guy is not objective on purpose. He a smart dude though.

@geoffreymak000 Жыл бұрын

Bubble vision.

@sarahcrowe4602 Жыл бұрын

Chewing gum wrappers 🤣

@SylvanNewby Жыл бұрын

so in a nutshell, buy eth

@rubicon3416 Жыл бұрын

So more debt. Imagine that?

@edreeves121 Жыл бұрын

Cripto idiocy is astonishing.

@mateoblanco285 Жыл бұрын

Crypto carbon credit tax incoming!!! Get under a table!!!

@plweis7203 Жыл бұрын

This guest seems way off point.

@CryptoTradesTech Жыл бұрын

That's probably because you are watching the wrong data

@42dunbar Жыл бұрын

Buy stocks heading into recession. That’s basically Raoul’s view too lol.

@michaelglenning5107 Жыл бұрын

😊How so? Demographic based decrease in spending globally, should look similar to the Japan demographic, which hit earlier. So basically deflationary on the demand side. Supply side is definitely looking inflationary with no end.

@CryptoTradesTech Жыл бұрын

Fiscal deficits, deficit spending & public debt interest expense are driving inflation & liquidity. Everything else is irrelevant.

@MissBardoJeep 11 ай бұрын

@@42dunbarhow did this opinion work out?

@greigsanderson Жыл бұрын

Is Raoul straight?

@zuu1701 Жыл бұрын

Who cares

@playhousecentral5847 Жыл бұрын

raoul has a reputation of scammer now

@mcginnnavraj4201 Жыл бұрын

Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.

@supermash1 Жыл бұрын

You guys know no more about what's coming in the markets than a set of tarot cards.

@RiversideInsight Жыл бұрын

I believe that the current financial system is deeply flawed and in need of a major overhaul before it completely breaks. It is clear that the system, which is designed to provide access to resources, is no longer effective and fails to ensure equitable and sustainable distribution of our planets resources. it is imperative that we carefully evaluate and fundamentally reimagine how we manage and distribute resources in a way that is independent of the current financial system. Our priority should be to design a system that promotes stability, sustainability, and fairness. To achieve this, we must focus on innovative and inclusive policies that empower individuals and communities to make better use of their resources. This can be achieved through the use of technology, education, and incentives that encourage responsible behavior and discourage wasteful consumption. Overall, it is clear that a bold and transformative approach is needed to create a financial system that better serves the needs of society, rather than just printing money or pulling on the interest rates levers. As macroeconomic enthousiasts we have a responsibility to take the lead and look beyond the current system to develop ideas and policies that facilitate a better, more equitable and sustainable distribution of wealth and resources, free from the constraints of the current financial system.