Thanks for the great feedback on the first episode of my new Nebula Original series. Episode 2 is out now and I think it's even better. This one is about why China is still pursuing Zero-COVID after 900 days and with no end in sight. I've had theories about this for years but feel like it's starting to really crystalize, and the answer is not a pleasant one. If you've been holding off on signing up for Nebula, now is the time to pull the trigger, with the CS + Nebula bundle on sale for less than $1/month right now: curiositystream.com/polymatter

I'll admit, I had my suspicions that Taiwan wasn't Ukraine, and this video just confirms it.

"Taiwanese are less concerned." Reminds me of what I noticed when I worked in Seoul .The South Korean public is way less worried about a North Korean attack than us North Americans. After living there for a few months, I settled into that pattern too and learned it was mostly empty threats, since it makes no strategic or economic sense to attack, not to mention they could lose the support of China (their only ally and lifeline) if they do so, since China does a lot of trade with South Korea. Not to mention the South Koreans and US being a good boogeyman to maintain fear and power over the North Koreans.

man i wanted to go to ukraine but i booked my flight to taiwan thank god this video saved me and showed me they arent the same

Unlike Ukraine, the island of Taiwan is more difficult to invade but also near impossible to get any support from outside.

Well, this explains why I was having trouble getting by speaking Ukrainian while in Taiwan. Taiwan really isn't Ukraine at all.

5:39 Not completely true. You omit that Ukraine is very muddy in the seasons of spring and autumn leaving winter and summer the best time for invasions. That's the reason the Russians were mostly on the roads where they could get droned, because they would get bogged up everywhere else.

I had my doubts that an island off the coast of China was the same as a country on the North of the Black Sea and sandwiched between Russia and the west but thank you for confirming it

2 minute version: Geography forbids that two countries on opposite sides of the globe from being the same place

Taiwan: Is an island Ukraine: Isn't an island Therefore Taiwan is NOT Ukraine

Taiwan has a far better economy than Ukraine and is far more competitive, as well as having greater international influence despite not being internationally recognised as a state by almost everybody. Not to mention: semiconductor weapons. Taiwan also realises this and is diversifying its investment in the United States and the West to serve as plan B in case of a Chinese invasion. Though I will cast a big "if" when China also needs economic benefits from Taiwan.

"Ukraine is not Taiwan, and Taiwan is not Ukraine" Learn something new everyday

When people say Taiwan is similar to Ukraine they speak in the sense that US and the rest of the world will not be involved militarily not referring to the difficulty to invade. It's been made pretty clear before that invasion is not going to be walk in the park and most likely very brutal.

24:8 is the same thing as 3:1 when you multiplied the defender's advantage it should have gone to something like 24:1 instead of what you did.

I think it is also important to mention that Taiwan produces 90% of the world's advanced chips. Without them straight up every single industry will collapse. There are two reasons why this is important. One it will literally force the US to defend Taiwan whether they want to or not, plus the US also already has national security reasons for defending Taiwan. The second is that China straight up buys their chips from Taiwan too, it would be self-sabotage to invade Taiwan.

brilliantly written and well produced!

oh boy, are you insane? you're risking to summon both russian and chinese bots here lol

Interesting point about the US WWII invasion plan, and the conclusion that the island is such an extremely difficult target. That was based on a depth of practical experience of amphibious landings that no modern military can match.

Apart from mistakes other people outlined, I think that you overlooked one major element, urban warfare. Taiwan has a density of 652/km2, Ukraine 73/km2. During the first phase of the Russian invasion, we have seen Russia bypass major cities without trying to take them (apart from cities impossible to bypass). And there is a good reason for this, urban warfare (i.e. fighting in town or cities) is a real pain for modern armoured forces, especially when attacking. You are exposed to small groups of fighters, booby traps and snipers. So usually, attacking in urban environment you are left with two possibilities, clear building after building which takes times and men or obliterate the city. While the russian army bypassed every urban environment they could, they went for the destruction of other urban environment. But as I said, Ukraine is far less densely populated than Taiwan. Thus, when you factor in urban warfare, amphibious warfare and mountain warfare, you are left with a clusterfuck that takes time, men and logistic to take. While the alternative means the total destruction of Taiwan.

Wow. Very educational, thanks for this vid. Subbed

Thank you for making this video!!

6:33 Going from a 3:1 attacker to defender ratio to a 24:8 ratio isn't actually changing anything, that isn't how force multipliers work in this context. You wanted to leave the defender number unchanged.

Just on a side note: 24:8 is the same as 3:1. Multiply the number of attackers not defenders.

This is an excellent presentation which provides reasonable ideas to explain the situation in a non sensationalist way.

Well thought out commentary!

"Conscript armies are more apathetic and less effective" except when it's their home on the line. I think we have seen in Ukraine just how hard it is to break someone's morale when A: you're trampling their stuff and B: they hated your even before that

Very informative, thank you！

been avoiding this because the title felt like click bait, but the actual video was surprisingly good

11:36 Why didn't they include Trump in this timeline? I'm no fan of Trump personally, but Trump was an official president of the US so he shouldn't be removed from the timeline imo

On Ukraine: "The biggest natural impediments are trees, grass, and tractors." 😂

In 11:30 why you didnt write the name of the president?

Great analysis. Thank you.

Ah, tractors, the greatest impediment to land invasions

I had not heard the concept of China using Taiwan as a convenient "nationalist enthusiasm button" before. Now that you pointed it out, it seems so very obvious. I have lived and worked in both Taiwan and Shanghai so I would like to compliment you on how well you have researched, understood and characterized each side. Well done!

Dissing conscript-heavy militaries is pretty short-sighted. It's basically impossible to field large armies or sustain attrition without conscription, because conscription allows you to build up generations of reservists in waiting.

Thank you for this incredibly well done piece. One must not under calculate the certain economic consequences to China should they attempt to invade Taiwan. This alone is the most probable deterrent (factor).

“In reality, the war was never meant to be won, but to be continuous. The war isn’t waged by one nation against another, but by the ruling classes against their own population.” Got that from my reading of 1984.

What point were you trying to make at 6:20 about defender's advantage? It starts at 1 defender per 3 atackers ratio and then climbs to 8-24, which is the same thing.

Excellent video, amazing!

Seeing someone who is not a defence expert commenting on defence is also a fun.

This might explain why I had a hard time finding train tickets to Poland while I was in Taiwan

Uh, I'm pretty sure a ratio of 24:8 still simplifies to 3:1. I get what you meant, it could be 4.2 attackers to 1 defender, but the fractions are funny.

Good info 💪🏽

China flying aircrafts on Taiwan Taiwanese: That's normal, nothing to worry about American: O my my God, they attacked Taiwan

This invasion, if it happens, could possibly do more damage to the global economy than the Russia-Ukraine war, mainly because TSMC have partnerships US based tech and consumer electronics companies like Apple & Intel (about 25% of TSMC's revenue comes from Apple which is about US$17b). Due to Taiwan's importance in the semiconductor industry and partnerships with companies in the West, if the invasion happens, you can almost guarantee the US will get involved. But outside of the semiconductor and tech talk, the geography of Taiwan makes this geopolitical tension a double-edged sword as it means that China could struggle with invading Taiwan since they are an island, and have irregular coastlines. However, they can easily declare a naval blockade as they do not border any countries in SE Asia. If China do go ahead with this invasion, I'd imagine it would be done with a somewhat similar approach to how Russia invaded Ukraine.

Looking at the timeline of American presidents at 11:31, does anyone else find it odd that the name Donald Trump was conspicuously left out? What gives, polymatter?

11:29 love it that He Who Shall Not Be Names is indeed NOT NAMED. yeah, voldemort.

There is a huge difference between having military power and projecting military power. And attacking a well fortified island with few possible landing sites requires a massive projection of power. One of the huge problems with Soviet style military doctrine is the lack of sustainable power projection as shown by Russia's inability to supply its own troops over land routes. This task gets much more complicated when you have to cross a body of water (even if it is a mere wide river), and much more so an ocean or sea or strait.

The reason there's more searches about an invasion in the US now than in the past can be easily explained by the simple fact that the internet makes people outside the region more aware of international events than in years and decades past. We now hear about things around the world more, and have the ability to look it up far easier and more frequently.

As you point out, China has been saber-rattling for seven decades. But that means Taiwan had seven decades to come up with a plan to defend themselves. And we can see what a difference eight years of preparation have made for Ukraine

Needed to hear this. Having less panic about an invasion now.

3:00 Mr. No ball doesnt dare to put US on

I don't think Taiwanese people would search for "Taiwan War" or "Taiwan unification" but instead search for "will China begin the war"

What people often neglect is that the Allies managed to land 160,000 troops on D-Day on a coastline which is much more suitable than Taiwan's. Taiwan won't be fighting a 2 million man army, they'll be fighting as many as China are able to successfully land. This is a fundamental math problem that is not easily solved by technology or military spending.

my 4 year of useless college education tells me that 24:8 and 3:1 might be equivalent

Love how you kept his name out at 2018. :)

6:38 thats not how ratios work... 24 : 8 is literally the same as 3 : 1. if you want to express how the number of troops china would need to invade multiplies, you only need to multiply their side of the ratio: 24:1.

The elephant in the room is either Taiwan or "the Republic of China" is recognised as a sovereign state by countries leaning on her, not like Ukraine. Don't underestimate this difference. It means many International laws do not apply to Taiwan by default. And it also means Taiwan will have to declare itself as a sovereign state if China attacks. It will put the whole world in an either-Taiwan-or-China situation, which is completely different from the Ukriane scenario. It will be much more dangerous.

I’m still waiting on the video “Why the USA is not Trinidad & Tobago”, these two are still confusing.

Not only the ROC would mobilize. The US would have two to three carrier groups on station within three weeks plus the Japanese Izumo class carrier and the two or three LHD/LHA that would be unloaded on the ROC coast and subsequently used as auxiliary carriers. After two months the Australian navy would be present and most likely one or two of the Indian navy ships.

The Ukrainian conflict has made me look at these 'intimidating' military parades very differently, considering the hardware is so easily defeated by modern anti-armour weapons.

11:29 lmaoooo, bruh, did you seriously left Trump as a blank box :D I thought these educational channels were better than this petty political BS

16:17 woah, Taiwan has escalators for mopeds? Badass AF

very good analysis

China would likely first annex some of Taiwan's smaller islands that lie closer to the Chinese mainland. We likely would not see a full-on amphibious assault of the main island until after they secure all the outlying islands.

I just wanted to point out two minor corrections in your video. The first that you kind of also addressed was basically that because the Taiwanese people aren't worried, the West shouldn't get worried either. we saw a similar thing happen in Ukraine because Russia was threatening an invasion several times in the past and it never happened. Even as troops were amassing the Ukrainian people denied that they thought Russia would actually invade. The second point is that China is simply beating a drum of war constantly with no real threat to Taiwan. on the contrary, China has been making slow steady progress towards an army that is capable of doing an amphibious landing. this comes in the form of a lot of spending, completely revamping their main small arms, the development of specialized marine divisions as part of the army that as far as I know no other military has an equivalent for, etc. these are all long-term investments that are very well measured and don't fall into the model of beating the drum of war, this is more of a stealth buildup behind a facade of simply beating a drum of war.

Amazing video

Great video

"Why Taiwan is NOT Ukraine" - Me: Well, that's pretty obvious, just like Japan isn't France....

“No matter your political affiliations, you can’t say China hasn’t had the full range of American administrations to choose from” Polymatter list all the presidents and associated party from the 1900’s until present day. Meanwhile 2018 = blank space 😂

Would be nice if you can give an update after the 2 military exercises of the pla surroudning the island

Maybe the real reunification were the friends we met along the way.

To be fair, Russia and Ukraine parted ways. China (PRC) and Taiwan (RoC) have not parted ways, the division is a result of a civil war and they both claim each other's territory and consider themselves the sole legitimate government of China.

@11:32 why is Donald Trump missing in the list?

One other important factor - China does not have a normal amphibious force delivery system and would be forced to hire or hijack unarmored business ships. Were Taiwan to have a few hundred Harpoon missiles in silos as the first wave came in, the delivery vehicles would be thinned considerably with heavy troop casualties. By the time a few waves came in, there would be nothing left. Think of the Russian Fleet's leading ship, sunk by a single missile. Then think of civilian transport ships hit by the same missile.

Why no one consider India? There are some positional boundary dispute between China and his nearby countries include India. Their Amy just had a fight in 2020. When China starts war, it is the time for them to take the land. And it will let China hard to start any action.

For one. You can walk from Moscow to Kyiv. But your not swimming from Southern China to Taipei.

if that invasion happens, this is going to really affect the semiconductor industry for a very long time as taiwan holds at least 80 to 90 percent of that industry...as well as it home to several big companies like asus, gigabyte and msi.

The Bay of Pigs at 5:19 got me to laugh out loud.

Oh boy, im very glad i now know the difference between ukraine and taiwan. I had no idea at all before, thanks for explaining it to me

Most people also forget that Ukraine is mostly landlocked (except for her Southern portion in the Black Sea) but Taiwan is surrounded by a big ocean - the Pacific Ocean. The reason why Ukraine is able to keep fighting and NATO & the US don't have to fight Russia directly is because of the land routes - they can easily send supplies and military equipment directly into Ukraine to support their fight with Russia. But, when it comes to Taiwan, things get pretty tough. Supplying Taiwan in a middle of a hypothetical war with China would be nearly impossible. China has the largest navy in the world (in terms of the number of ships) and has a formidable air force - one that is enough to subdue entire airforces in East Asia. With only an air and sea route into Taiwan, the US and the Allies (namely Japan and most possibly Australia) would have to fight their way to get to Taiwan. They can't sit back and supply Taiwan with lots of military and humanitarian aid without the Chinese attacking or blocking the passage of neutral ships and aircraft attempting to enter Taiwan during a hypothetical war scenario. I think this is one area that is often overlooked - the geographical differences of both countries: Taiwan and Ukraine. So I will leave my comment here! :D

11:34 I find it absolutely hilarious that there's a conspicuously blank space between 2017 and 2021

11:30 Why is the 2018 block blank? lol

Bro 24:8 odds is the same thing as saying 3:1 odds lmao. I agree with the point you're making but it would be "instead of 3:1 odds it would be closer to 5:1 or 6:1"

Actually, in 9:11 there isn't called Linkou beach in Taiwan, we usually say there is ''Taipei Port'' or ''Bali'' in the leftside of river, and the other side there is ''Tamsui''

Just found your site PM. Straight question: if you cancel Trump at 11:30 because you dislike his politics, are you really that different from the CCP which has always done the same to nationalist Taiwan? If you have any sense you'll correct your video very quickly.

Why does the assaults' need to be by water? Granted it would be really hard but they could build a hidden under the ocean tunnel stretching from mainland China to Taiwan and then attack from there. Something similar to the Channel Tunnel between UK and France.

As HOI4 player, I can confirm that naval invading mountainous islands are a pain in the ass, especially if the enemy has advanced tech and weapons

Here's another perspective : The reason why China wants Taiwan is exactly the reason that it establishes the legitimacy of the CCP, instead of using Taiwan to bolster its waning popular support. Historically if you look in the past, China had always depended on a "mandate of heaven" to claim legitimacy of ruling the Chinese mainland, that is if someone can reunite all Chinese lands, they can claim themselves to be the emperor and ruler. There is also a name for time between the mid 1800s to the early 1900s in Chinese when China fought the opium wars : "百年耻辱" (A hundred years of disgrace). China had been fractured and split up between western colonial powers, Japanese imperialism, warlordism, and banditry during the 19th century, and even during the civil war both the nationalist and the communist knew that they would never repeat something like this ever again. Which can also explain why China intervened in the Korean War when the US closed in on its borders not knowing whether they would stop there. It a social and historical problem, the only reason Taiwan had not declared independence is not because of the CCP threatening it, but rather they both have agreed to play the legitimacy game, which independence would destroy this game altogether. Strategically Taiwan is part of the 1st Island chain, blockading China from ever reaching the Pacific ocean, and even if they do, they would be closely monitored by US and US allied navies. 70% of China's economically productive areas are located on the Eastern coastline, where the US has hundred of air force bases, naval bases, and open to attack from the US or even Taiwan. This poses a strategic problem to China, just as Ukraine to Russia. That being said, Taiwan is not a made up issue by the CCP to claim the island, and in strategic terms, even if it would cost millions of men taking the island, if it would improve Chinese strategic standing in the Pacific, an invasion would be likely.

11:34 I know Trump wasnt anybody's favourite but this is either an honest mistake or just straight up petty

Nobody wants to talk about 11:33 where all the Presidents' names are on screen except... ya know.. that guy...?

Please try to analyze the Korea war before it started in the same way.

At 11:30, why did you not list Trump in your 100 year list of US presidents?

Your graphic at 11:35 of American Presidents and their party affiliation omitted Donald Trump. Why is that?

You can't really compare WW2 amphibious operation with modern day's one, there aren't any supersonic anti-ship missiles and SAM systems back in WW2.

Wouldn’t May and June be a good time with the Fog cover or no?

@11:30 why is 2018 empty on the chart of US presidents/administrations? The administration that was conveniently left off this chart was one of the most staunch critics on many of China's policies in the last several decades. I am assuming this may be due to certain bias's relating to US politics, and I really hate to assume. Would be nice when people are trying to lay out certain facts, they do so with integrity, not allowing personal bias to interfere.

"Taiwan and Ukraine are not the same country" "Thanks for watching guys"

24:8 is the same as 3:1, what was the point of this?

why did u change ratio to same ratio