I got a new microphone so next video should be better, thanks for watching!

It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

That's a great thesis. Thank you for sharing it!

I enjoy your videos. Thanks for what your expertise

Interesting thesis .. thank-you for sharing!

Good stuff. I was talking to someone recently and said I wondered if we were starting to get a rotation out of the top of the index. For me, it'll be interesting to see if that rotation happens or the mag 7 stocks selling off causes the whole thing to correct before we really get the rotation. I'm leaning toward agreeing with your idea of a rotation though. It'll be interesting.

Great video. I am on the same boat and I think NVDA will be the trigger. In about 6 months the comparables will be very hard to match as revenue grew on gpu price hikes and not that much on quantity. The narrative will change sending google (which i think is the most undervalued of the faang), msft, aapl and all the semis down first. I can see a 20% pullback if that happens.

Great to hear your thoughts.

Thanks for your thesis. I don’t fully agree but I really appreciate your thoughts. I give it about another 1-1.5 years before people realize that NVDA being cheap was only temperory. NVDA already acknowledged it and is offering Ethernet but seemed to paint this in a positive light when it is clearly negative that they will lose their monopoly. I’ve positioned for this already with a large allocation into ANET. But this change will likely be the catalyst to give the market a soft crash as all AI stocks are likely to indiscriminately crash in response. Overall I am still bullish and will keep buying stocks and when this crash happens, I’m going to be buying heavily into other tech names and MNST energy. Idk if I’ll share this on my KZfaq since my channel is so tiny but I may consider making some videos about my positioning.

Good video thanks

Informative video as always. Agree on the rotation. Regarding your recession call, how do we get there if the fiscal deficit stays at 6% of GDP?

Excellent analysis

Very good video. I like your channel a lot and a long term subscriber. I have a question (not asking for advise, just opinion!): Assuming 2025 does what you think, which is a S&P pull back (or crash, or correction): Do you think it will only be a rotation, meaning while S&P goes down, then value and smallcaps go up OR do you think it'll be a full market crash where smallcaps and value will also go down? Just curious for your opinion on this. Thanks.

Started buying RSP last week, planning to buy all the way down. Ready to see some deep red in my account for a while and then hold.

Great video

I think you are correct

Given your current thesis, what’s your action plan on your long term holdings that you already have a full position in? Are you going to be trimming them heavily to book in your profits?

Nice video very informative! One thing to add is the huge us deficit 6-7% GDP with just 2% GDP growth which is pushing up the market, giving a false sense of security and keeping rates higher for longer. If we assume that the US atleast cuts the deficit a little that will have an impact on the market

I don't think there will be a Fed pivot this year. Looking through the data on FRED, I see no evidence that the economy is slowing, and it looks like inflation is leveling-off. So I think they'll leave short term rates as-is. Long term rates may even drift upward. If inflation does drift downward or unemployment rises, and the Fed does ease, it'll be minimal.

Prefer stock analysis videos. Have you looked into LSXMK? It looks like a buy with decent MOS at 20 pps. Others that look interesting to me are APA (5x FCF, catalyst is Suriname in 12 mos), CNXC (5x FCF, catalyst post-merger synergies and paying down debt)

Great video as always. Although a 2025 crash may not be likely if we're still in a bull market. I held on to that cut=crash thought for too long, before realizing this is a bull market, albeit weird/unbalanced. But I agree 100% with your 2024 thesis.

This is an interesting take. But tbh i am already buying reits.

Great video. Like the analysis. However, I think that you underestimate the importance of the money supply M2. It is very high over trend and only way to have a crash require a massive event like covid or something very disruptive which I believe is not likely. This is a stock market which reminder of the 1990s. I think that 2025 could be a little pullback so not as good as 2024 but flat or mildly good.

interesting thank you!

I just watched this video, good insight, too. "Stock Market at New Highs? Here's What I'm Buying Part 1 of 2" by Adam Khoo.

It is so impossible to predict such things. The overpriced must correct, and the high growth must revert to the mean, but all the rest do not have to follow them although they oftentimes do. Crashes are not mandatory, nor is inflation. If you avoid the overpriced and the high growth and don't panic, your assets will not crash though they will fluctuate.

something that you haven't touched is the lowering interest rates in theory will make the dollar weak and make foreign funds pull some of their money.

interesting video

The question is if you expect a crash 2025 do you exit most of your long positions or just keep them long term and just have more cash set aside

If there's a belief of a crash then surely cyclical stocks like ULTA are less likely to return to the $600 mark before a crash. So should be considered a sell now?

Ill revisit this video in 6 months

Not sure you are grasping how bad the economy and consumer are doing! We will see a very deep recession IMO and it’s incoming.

You've got a good head for this

What’s going on with geopolitics? You should know.

So buy up the usual October bottom lol

👍

MCD NOC SBUX UNP PEP

The market may crash within a month or less.

The stock market almost always does a slow tumble while rate cuts are happening. How far it tumbles depends on how long rate cuts last and how much recession was triggered by higher rates. My guess is the current administration will continue to fudge the numbers to mask the recession that likely started Q3 of 2023 - until after the election. By then, the market will take a hard tumble regardless of market cap.

Manage my money please

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