Are We Alone? Watch David Kipping's video on the Cool Worlds channel for further insight: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/n7KSldODvri7ZY0.html

Awesome channel! Thanks for having me on again JMG et al!

Rather than "intelligent" life, we should be saying "technological" life, in my opinion. It makes an important distinction.

This blunt is for you John

This is the most realistic discussion on the topic I’ve heard, and I think I’ve kept up with most papers on the subject. It’s the first attempt, as far as I know, that has found a way (nod to Bayes) to mathematically include our own existence to enter a formula in a useful way. Thanks to both of you for this discussion. It made my day.

I think the simplest answer to the Fermi paradox is likely the true one ... We're alone.

Professor Kipping is my favorite, his videos, his voice, his channel and this one are gold mines on KZfaq, great content Mr. Godlier, ty.

In my experience, intelligent life on Earth is extremely rare

This is why our lives are so precious. Don't take it for granted.

Dr. Kipping is my new favorite astrophysicist.

Fascinating interview. Years ago I assumed that our galaxy was teeming with technological civilizations. Over time I’ve come to the view that life is common but that intelligent creatures capable of technology are exceedingly rare.

I felt like I was in space while listening to this. The whole topic and your talk even killed some of my anxiety. My problems are so irrelevant, when remembering how special life actually is. Thank you very much.

This is a great talk.

David Kipping and JMG, This is going to be a fantastic listen!

Cool Worlds is by far my favorite channel. David Kipping is such a talented lecturer and the production quality of his videos are extraordinary.

I’m a big fan of Dr. Kipping and his work, and I’m thrilled that John had him on to talk about this subject. I hope everyone who works on the EH team is staying well. Thanks so much, John.

I think Dr. Kipping's voice is so calming. I always love everytime I get a notification that Cool Worlds lab put out another video. Good talk gentlemen.

Haaa I was just browsing your old videos wishing a new one would pop up. Perfect timing. Thanks JMG!

Listened to David on his channel, i feel i have also been slowing coming to this idea over the last few years, life can be abundant it just does not have to be intelligent enough to know we are out there. Intelligence is rare.

Thank you for this excellent interview and discussion! May you all stay safe and well - and keep up the good work!

Prof.David Kipping is my favorite astrophysicist, and Cool World channel is the best.

I really enjoy the back and forth conversations with your Guests. It makes me think of a warm fire outside a ski resort over looking a dark sky and a galactic background rising into view. Almost MST3K commenting on the absurdity of it all, yet finding it makes sense in the end.

I love falling into your event horizon, time gets distorted and 1h goes by in a minute

A collaboration of two of the most amazing thought provoking content creators on my list! I'm gonna savor this one😊 Edit: As soon as JMG said: "Welcome back," I realized I had been living under a rock and missed the previous episodes. Not for long.

I would think subsurface ocean life would be quite common. It is the 1st place life developed on earth and it did so rather quickly in the grand scheme of things. Great content as always!

Fascinating! One of THE best event horizon's conversations I have had the pleasure to listen to. Thank you so much John & David for this inclusive talk on many topics of the cosmos.

Absolutely addicting videos! Always informative and entertaining.

Awesome show!! Love Kipping's deep insight! Another Great show John!! The channel keeps getting better everytime!!💪

I have been wanting to see this collaboration for a long time.

I think, it does all come down to the right time. If we did discover something out of our reach, that actually proved that (intelligent life) exists, then we wouldn’t have this period of time to understand the smaller things that we need to know before we come in to contact. Just think how long we’ve been looking and how much we’ve learned from searching. It’s all a preparation of what’s to come

Thank you for this great conversation here. Learnt a lot !

What a great guest and a fantastic interview. I subscribe to both of your channels and this is definitely one of the best KZfaq crossovers for me in a while. Perfect subject matter for two excellent science communicators to discuss.

Keep up the excellent work guys!!

my favorite subject thanks for posting

Good work Eryn Knight! Thank you for being awesome

The possibility of Venus having been habitable in the past is endlessly fascinating. I wish this topic was explored more. I seem to remember seeing a video about a paper that claimed that the hellish conditions on Venus and the complete resurfacing of the planet may have only happened in the past 300 to 500 million years.

Watching this on a Friday after work, and having a drink every time he says slam dunk 😋 is interesting to think on how many things in earth's history that if happened maybe even slightly different, could have led to a very different present day

i like sparking one up and just listening to this while i woodwork

Great episode 👍🏻 Two favorite folks chatting on a neat topic 😎

Brilliant thank you guys, this is so clear and understandable. Please follow up again quickly.

Discovered you after someone recommended your other channel on Reddit. Ever since then I think i watched pretty much all your videos, at least 2 per night. Keep them coming, one of the best subscriptions in a while. Also gave me plenty of ideas for a short sci-fi film!

david kipping is the best scientist on exoplanests and the fermi paradox at the moment...there it is....i've said it!

Stunning interview. Thank you!

I'm excited! I've been binge watching cool world's during quarantine lol :P

Bayesian inference for the win.

I have never clicked so fast! My 2 favourite youtube creators together🙃

I believe that not only is intelligent life extremely rare, but life in general. It isn’t just about being in a habitable zone of a star.... The planet needs a multitude of other factors. A magnetic field, a rotational axis that produces weather patterns, a large moon has likely been vital, a Jupiter type planet further out sweeping up or diverting disastrous comet and asteroid impacts.....on and on. I believe the conditions that made life on earth possible are impossibly rare.

Thanks John. I always enjoy listening to Dr. Kipping.

Hi guys hope you're all well. Thanks for the show.. I couldn't do without it. I'm on my phone at the moment as you know JMG computers some times have a mind of their own. Again guy's big massive thank you x.

Great episode. David is fascinating to listen to. Really admire his massive brain and how he can look so vastly. His channel is one of my Favorites. Well done JMG

Great interview! Dr Kipping is a great guest and I love his channel. Thanks for the episode.

I love topics like this they really make you think. Another fascinating video I always look forward to these :D

Strangely, I'm actually somehow a lot more excited about the possibility that we turn out to be not special at all - but just a particularly wacky configuration of something that is incredibly common and mundane in the universe. In a sense, of course, that's almost a self-evident statement - after all, we've been finding organic chemistry all over the place already, so at the least we know that having the building blocks for life present in no way requires life itself as we currently think of it. Which begs the question... Could the same point about anthropocentrism in the way we view intelligence (i.e. we're too focused on looking for evidence of things that behave like us, such as using radio) also more broadly apply to how we've got a bit of a problem bias in the way we search for life? Maybe the thresholds in what we see as life and not-life are also off the mark or too focused on Earth biology as we know it? My own bet is that we may actually first detect truly alien life not in space, but right here on Earth - and possibly somewhere a lot more mundane than kilometers deep under polar ice. I have no idea what that might be, what it may actually act like, and what types of instruments (observational or theoretical) we'd have to use to find it - but it does make me wonder if our binary "life vs. not-life" view might not quite hold up in the long run. And not in the "super-advanced aliens walking among us" sense, but the opposite - in things we now regard as too primitive, as life's "building blocks" rather than life itself. What if, rather than a chance product of "unusual configuration of mundane chemistry", life turns out to actually be an inherent and inevitable function of that mundane chemistry, not an exception but a natural and normal consequence of some universal law? Again - I've no idea how with the tools at hand we'd even go about demonstrating that, or if that's really possible. But it's an interesting thing to wonder about. And to me, there just doesn't seem to be anything all that uncomfortable about the idea that all we are is just a particularly eccentric configuration of something utterly normal, usual, mundane - and of which other instances are not exceptional but actually everywhere, including right here at home. In a way, finding that would be even bigger and more exciting than discovering microbes on Mars and Europa.

Finally another video! Hey John this winter I messed around with astrophotography and I got a really nice picture of the Cigar and Bodes galaxies. And I was wondering if if was possible to get it on one of your videos, I see you reuse a lot of pictures. Don't even have to credit it, it would just mean so much to me!

Fascinating video, keep up the good work ❤️

John both the channels are literally the only channels I listen to consistently, only listening to music is all I do besides listening to you. You’re above the music tho. The great shows and questions are like music to my ears anyway. Keep it up. Also enjoyed Supermind I must admit I need to read again. Easily understood but feel I missed something. Thank you so much.

kipping and JMd when ever you guys post search for aliens videos I watch them over and over while I’m falling asleep probably like over 20 times each lol

Is there a podcast version of your videos? I think they're brilliant and should be available to listen to as well!

I just wanna say, again, please never stop mr Godier!

Thanks Michael, I watch every single one of your videos.

Great Episode. I really like David's stringent and rational reasoning (in contrast to some more ehm more emotional guests).

In a universe with virtually limitless stars, to believe Earth is the only planet with life is plain nuts.

A beautiful shot of my hometown in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the U.P. And the stunning Lake Superior. Nice.

Such a great channel, lovely vibe and sounds and most interesting topics

Awesome! In my mind, the elephant in the room, as far as the elements of the Drake Equation discussed here, is why there is no mention of the failure to replicate biogenesis in a lab. Complex molecules are still not biogenesis. I wish this type of analysis would attempt to quantify/qualify the scope of what has been tested, in this area of research. If biogenesis is so easy, surely we could replicate it. The fact we haven't, IMO, should dominate the analysis of the timeline. Does it matter how early life can be detected on Earth if we can't determine the physical mechanism and conditions required? It seems like both should carry a similar weight until a breakthrough is made.

Notification gang?

I never heard anyone say "Radio is the only way", but it definitely is a good way, because what the experts here seem to overlook is that Radio is not just shows and other information we send out and will soon replace with optical cables and stuff like that, there is also Radar and we won't get rid of that technology anytime soon and even more importantly, electromagnetic signals are sent out involuntarily when using other technologies that are not even meant to send anything. All our overland power cables send out tons of unintentional EM signals all the time. So much that there is now "Passive Radar" technology, which detects stealth aircraft by looking for "holes/shadows" in the constant ambient white noise our cities and power lines produce. Basically every time you use electricity, you are also creating electromagnetic waves. Since electricity seems very likely to be utilized by any technologically advanced civilization, looking for electromagnetic signals, whether intentionally emitted ones, or unintentionally, not only makes a lot of sense, but still seems to be the best bet. Honestly, a physicist saying that radio signals aren't that useful for finding aliens because we are already moving away from the technology is shockingly ignorant. Does this physicist not know how electromagnetic waves are created and that radio towers aren't the only things that do that?

I hope these two chat again soon. Really enjoy their content and conversations.

Super interesting, despite having already watched David Kipping's video. The only thing I was missing in this discussion is the fact that Dyson swarms seem kind of inevitable for civilizations given enough time and therefore the lack of those seems like a much more damning piece of evidence than the lack of radio waves.

OK, help me out here. He says to think of an experiment where you have a hundred glasses of water, and a chemical you want to dissolve. You either have a result where the chemical will dissolve every time (a hundred percent) or none of the time (zero percent). Then he says it would be odd if it only dissolved half the time (50/50), or like just 10 percent of the time. So in the paper he considers only two possibilities. Either it's small (close to zero), or one. And he concludes that since we see just one (life here on earth) that it means the odds are closer to zero of other intelligent life. Here's what doesn't make sense: using his experiment with cups of water, if you test dissolving the chemical in one randomly selected cup, and it doesn't dissolve, you can reasonably assume it won't dissolve in any of them. The same should be true conversely. If the chemical *does* dissolve in one randomly selected cup, then you would reasonably conclude it will dissolve in all of them. So If we're the one randomly selected cup where the chemical dissolves, then it should dissolve in all. Or, since this is an analogy of the occurrence of intelligent life, if we see it this one time here, then it should be common everywhere. Why is he assuming the opposite of what his example shows? It doesn't make sense. Anyone want to clear up his reasoning for me here?

Listening to this while working on work project on my laptop at home. Interesting as always.

Awesome. I absolutely love David Kipping. I know this is going to be great. Haven’t watched it yet.

Question, could a civilization, in a different supercluster, send us pictures of their observable universe? Thus giving use information we are causally disconnected from.

Life is an anomaly of physical matter, imagine looking at sand and realizing that was us at one point and somehow inanimate objects began to move on its own.

2 of my favorite KZfaqrs. Love your content.

Inspirational thoughts from the guest. Thank you.

Pink Floyd: If you listen to the album, you'll hear: "there is no 'dark side' of the moon really, as a matter of fact, it's all dark"

There's 3 scenarios for panspermia, we are from there, they are from here or we both come from somewhere else, the last one is the most fun for me, the live galaxy idea, life everywhere. Also is it random panspermia or directed 👽👽👽

This is the best discussion of the subject I have seen. The interviewer is well-informed. Dr. Kipping is covering the bases, whereas elsewhere he has been somewhat more ambiguous. Here, they are mostly talking about our own galaxy, which is the right way to look at it.

People are just worried we are the most intelligent thing because we know so little but In reality we know so much. Well done people

If we are it an awful waste of space.

We are alone in the universe 🤔 i feel the data indicates that 🤔 but we need lots more data to make this assertion

This is my new favourite channel

Amazing, loved this

If there was only one form of intelligent life for every 100 million galaxies, and if you went with the low estimate of 200 billion galaxies in the observable universe, that would leave 2,000 species of intelligent life. If you went with the high estimate of two trillion galaxies, that'd be 20,000 forms of intelligent life. I find it statistically improbable that we're the only intelligent life, the likelihood we simply cant find it for whatever reason (i'd guess distance, considering the size of the universe), seems much more sensible. The only exception to this is if we changed the numbers to one form of intelligent life per observable universe, in which case, maybe we still get to be special for a while longer...

Hasn’t intelligence occurred several times ( that we know of) I.e the other hominids, Neanderthal,etc?

bravo to Prof. David Kipping.....

Just finished watch David Kipping's video. And now I see this video is uploaded :D

I said it over on David Kipping's channel but what really catches my eye on the timing of life's history is the ~1+ billion year gap between the chemical signatures suggestive off aerobic photosynthesis 3.25 Ga and the Great Oxygenation Event(GOE) around 2.4 billion years ago. If life developed oxygen based photosynthesis over 3.25 billion years ago why did it take until 2.4 Ga for run away oxygenation? Personally I have a strong suspicion that it likely has to do with aerobic respiration as all aerobic respiration seems to share a singular origin unlike Sulfur or metal based metabolisms which have wide variability Combining these two ideas if oxygen was poisonous to proto-cyanobacteria then perhaps that is the big gap. After all soon after the first snowball glaciations associated with the GOE ended we see the Francevillian biota which are very convincing multicellular fossils which appear to be a first failed attempt an multicellularity that never got past an Ediacaran like ecology at least in a way that could fossilize. On a related note there appears to be an interesting timing for Eukaryotes by molecular clock estimates as they suggest the Last Eukaryotic Common Ancestor (LECA) arose around 1.8 Ga which if true suggests Eukaryotes rapidly developed as the first Eukaryotic fossil evidence is from 1.6 Ga with older more controversial microfossils back towards 1.8 Ga. What I found interesting is studies that compared the divergence timing of Mitochondria from their free living relatives which find they diverged around the same time which seems fairly convincing though I'm no biologist so I can't be sure how much credence molecular clock dating has for such ancient life. The curious finding that surprised me is that despite their ancient fossil record perhaps as far back as 3.25 Ga modern cyanobacteria only have a last common ancestor from around the same 1.8 Ga interval(with larger error bars however) This could be a coincidence but since the window of uncertainty both are centered around the remarkably precise date of the Sudbury basin impact 1.849 Ga. Given the geology of the time the impact apparently occurred within the shallow seas around the Super Continent Columbia/Nuna depending on the exact configuration of the continents but either way the shallow marine environment around a super continent. The apparent truncation of cyanobacteria is suspiciously similar to the Chicxulub impact except while there was a super continent (which is a major culprit implicated in the Permian extinctions) If so that complicates things and life was limited to the seas. As such perhaps Eukaryotes arose to fill a void left by a mass extinction? This seems plausible as we have found the complex Asgard Archaea which are obligate anaerobes that are so closely related to Eukaryotes that Eukaryotes as a whole fit within one of the groups branches and they seem to have evolved many of the traits needed to make the jump in evolutionary terms. The first and thus far only member of the clade cultured in a laborious effort that took over 12 years found a large tentacled archaea which carries around a species of bacteria and a methanogen archaea. It all leads to an interesting series of questions regarding the time table of life though resoling it further will be far harder.

I called my dad today and called him a snowflake. He said, "Son you better start making sense". Lmao he obviously doesn't watch Event Horizon. 🤣

Both of these channels are awesome

Thanks!

Aliens have already visited earth which means they are way more advanced than us

The whole FTL limit is a bummer for galactic friendships.

This was a fascinating talk!

I haven't listened yet but two of my favorite youtubers collaborating again should be good.

And as humans being "intelligent life", that's saying very little.

The way things seem with regard to the human species, we may be the only life in the universe that is not very intelligent.

Always got awesome videos here

19:30 I watched David Kipping's video on this paper on his channel before, but here he's explaining this objective bayesian logic in greater detail, much easier to understand.