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White collar jobs are being laid off, and they are picking up extra side jobs to get by. I could be wrong, but the jobs data could be misleading for now

I've read news articles recently that say that people have been putting a lot more debt on their credit cards and borrowing more from their 401Ks lately to compensate for their loss of earning power due to inflation. I think these could be contributing factors as to why spending has NOT decreased much and that businesses have NOT begun laying off workers much. But that can't continue indefinitely. Eventually people reach their credit limit on their credit cards and run out of money in their 401Ks. I've also read news articles recently that say that people are beginning to become delinquent on their credit card bills and car loans and such. I wonder if many people are now finally reaching their credit card limits and running out of money in their 401Ks. If so, that fall off of buying could be beginning soon, leading to that recession that has been predicted for so long.

5:30 unfortunately the cost of needs (housing, food, power, internet) and the things making record profits, and shareholder greed … we’re effed!

The edit went up two notches. Really enjoyed this.

Nice work, but I thought part of the issue was related to something like: many people are out of the workforce such that the supply of workers is very low. So unemployment is low because unemployment only measures those who are able and actually want to work.

i work in retail, we are already working with a skeleton crew and that has been the standard for the past 5 years, upper management has been cutting costs like crazy this year, there was a huge shift in spending after 2023 started. its at the point were if they cut employees on the ground level they'll literally wont have enough people to serve the customers, so that could be a factor in why employment isn't going down right now.

Hamish, I've studied the stock market, I've studied the commodity market, I've studied the bond market... Now you're telling me there's another one? I hope it's free, I'm not paying for it! 😉 (Your videos are looking very professional nowadays, well done.)

Hi Hamish as a long time follower of you I have got to say that the editing of this video is amazing so fun and interesting to watch. thank you of all of your content and the teaching process you are taking me through.

I strongly agree! The stimulus package definitely extended the effects of rate hikes. Personally, I work for the banking sector, and there is a massive hiring freeze. In addition, sales pressures are going up while layoffs are slowly happening. Of course, the bank runs had something to do with it as well, but they are all related. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burry plays another short game again very soon! The calm before the storm means the storm is actually much bigger than anticipated.

Great work brother

Great video Hamish.. I appreciate the massive amount of effort you put in here and over at the Investor Community!!

Unfortunately 13years of monetary easing created this mess. We never learn.

Incredible work mate

Curious, I’d be retiring/working much less in 5 years, and keen to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I sometimes earn up to $200K per year, but nothing to show for it yet.

Man, I really love your videos. It's about how well you explain complicated things in such an easy way.

Hamish, after seeing this really excellent video, I’m subscribing! 🎉

That was well explained.

Great video! Cheers :)

In short, ppl still have stimulus money so consumption is still robust n so companies r still growing revenues, hence no layoffs yet.

Thank you, Hamish, this was very interesting. Everything bad and wrong always happens by one reason without exceptions: political interventionism. Each and ever single crisis is caused by politicians and central banks. Always.

Good job Hamish. You are spot on about people have cash in the bank and businesses are making good money at the moment. Going to take a while for all the government money to return back as taxes.

Subbed. Good teacher, You took a 30 year old man with no patience for this dry ass material. To have some patience for your video. Thanks for your work

Wow Hamish, so much in 12min Amazing video content, really stepped it up ans apreciate your insight into potential more savings left to burn through before we see unemployment tixk up. In the UK the amount and level of savings is changing to below pre pandemic. However some people are still using credit in some cases to maintain spending habits. But it seems lur labour market is starting ti show signs of softening. Lots of recruitment agencies down sizing... Indicating less assignmenrs for them

The way to combat this is to rescission proof your career by considering what is rescission proof? Medical, service trades like HVAC, electrician, and plumbers always work, bars will be full to numb the pain and I am sure a few others Elevator trades Auto repairs and so on! Luxuries get hit hard!

Which industries have added all the job openings to counter the sudden lack of openings in many tech companies? I don’t understand how these numbers are right. So many big tech stopped hiring this year and laid off many. So for the unemployment now to be at a low, other industries must have increased hiring ?? Which are they?

Good point. Economy works in cycles, part of the cycle is recession, so having a recession is normal. What makes the difference is how you manage the recession, as Dalio teaches.

Amazing video and great analysis, Hamish! I’m really a fan of your work. Greetings from Portugal 🇵🇹

great video

Fiat currencies have eventually always failed. We are in an experiment right now that has failed a couple times in the past. The US dollar should be pegged to Gold, silver, and copper. It doesn’t have to be a physical exchange like before just the supply of physical tied to supply of dollars in the system.

Amazing video man! 👌🏼

Maybe because the biggest generation in world history is retiring? These models don't account for shrinking. Only growth. The model is broke now.

The production quality of this video was super impressive Hamish!

GDP was on the rise despite the rise of the federal funds rates, all of those tech companies are sitting on huge pile of cash (previous earnings) which they burn when the borrowing becomes too expansive, so both consumers and big companies are burning the savings, which can't last forever

Rates need to keep rising and stay higher. 14 years of QE and free money created asset bubbles.

Another explanation for why people are not losing their jobs are because companies are the reason for inflaction. If they raise their prices across the board, then they earn more. Therefore they don't need to lay people off.

Dropping prices doesn't increase demand.

Great video and well explained! Like the new style

So Inflation is already sharply falling. If its back to normal before people have to cut their spending we get no recession this time.

All I see , 3/4 way thru vid, on why prices rose (were taught to call this “inflation”) and ppl not laid off - is bc this is not by the economic books we’re supposed to be playing by - it was price gauging. Inflation is defined as prices going up to cover costs and MAINTAIN profit margins. These corporation are TRIPLING PROFIT MARGINS making new records . So the employment question isn’t a puzzle to much to me , except I do think prices were artificially and unnecessarily driven up. It was opportunistic and , quite frankly , it appears collusive which is supposed to be illegal but we saw it across the board where it was price gauging and bragged about on earnings calls. They’re public record to listen to Also we might see a cruel shift in excessive layoffs (my surmise) as we’re NOT DEALING with free market as stated in beginning but as we’re taught at university - it’s a very good book smart explanation tho (it has a purpose . That economic theory DOES makes sense . So one gets behind “capitalism”. HOWEVER- anti-trust laws failed . Which means the results are on a WHOLE other spiral. This is NOT free market capitalism . Keynes said as productivity rose our hours would be lowered . And we’re ALLL FEELING the need for that too!!?! What’s in the way? This is NOTTT free market . We’re high jacked as employees. There’s billionaires out there who tell us this too , but they won’t say that on publicly traded , corp owned media outlets in on it? Not to sound like Alex Jones I’m a finance graduate and career person. Psychology of human beings interrupts the equilibrium . “Minds of the mases” wa required reading in finance regarding stock market . It’s evident RIGHT THERE. The flaw is the book looks only at behavior of masses to market. It does not look at the behavior of the few who amassed more wealth than the gdp of some countries . And that science tells us , (I’m going to say this in my own words bc the words they use pale it to not incite legitimate rage) . That science tells us - peer reviewed and confirmed - the more stratospheric wealth. Person gains - it LITERALLY changes the brain . The human being who acquires such vast wealth to supersede the wealth of so many prominent in the world, or the pride in knowing they have more than countries combined? They stop caring for people. They become become less and less empathetic til none exists anymore at all. They then rationalize crueler and crueler conditions on people , as if rational . And just like the theory read , in the beginning of this otherwise great video , we people tend to think the crueler treatment is rational . And the corruption continues . Recession every 5-10 years!?! This is novel in recent decades inly but UNPRECEDENTED histocakky to crash so frequently . Again , I know they teach us that . But you go out into the finance world , and gain experience and learn what works for you even if challenging and takes discipline. But at the sane time , I can see , it’s an untruth designed to keep people supporting , what we THOUGHT , was free market . Have you sent the 2007/8 Citibank report when they said they know now that we’re all serfs now basically?? It’s still out there . I remember noticing years before I would see that report . And over the years other niche papers have powerful breakdowns on the matter. Great job . Just advising some caution , regarding the real world and the real world application of those aforementioned textbook principles. Of course it makes sense . So does “companies use profits to reinvest in their company” have you seen the railroad dumps all spring?? *as a friend*😅 I’m telling you this . Good work regardless.

People are also the biggest asset.

Yeah, you'll be even poorer, that's normal, that's what economic cycle is...🤦‍♀️🔥

US Jobs Are About To Be Revised Lower By 650,000 - zerohedge today. The numbers were massaged?

They lose their jobs but since FED doesn't want to pivot yet , they ' ll have to wait a few more months to see their numbers becoming official 🤣🤣😂😂😂😂

Great video

They pulled off the smooth landing?

I'm fairly certain there are an infinite amount of bobbleheads. I've worked with a few. Have we reached the point in the jobs market where they're hiring bobbleheads again? 😨

What you mean? They have. A lot.

Because there is something much deeper going on in the job market!! Millennials and generation Z , DONT want to work 8 hours any more!!! And they don't want to work in an office, etc. That's why businesses cannot find young workers . So even if the central banks send interest rates to 10,%, still there will be low unemployment. We are entering a new era of how we define "work". But politicians and central banks are still in their own planet. They think raising interest rates will solve anything. They still cannot see the world of employment is SHIFTING.

This will age like milk.

Someone took some lessons in After Effects 😅

Money printing

Nice argument but if we are not in a recession then why is there so much homelessness in the USA? Maybe the data is being manipulated?

It feels like a school propaganda video. It's far too simplistic. It makes it sound like inflation is just an issue with Supply and demand, but that's not what inflation is. Inflation has to do with too much money chasing too few goods. The cause of inflation most recently is the government printing money. And the reason you haven't seen a recession yet is twofold, first people have some savings thanks to all of the government stimulus. That's about to run out. Second, we have actually been in a mild recession but the government just changed the definition to make it look like we weren't. There's a lot of chicanery with these numbers, so you have to look at reality and not just take the government. I can virtually guarantee you that a much bigger collapse is coming.