Really enjoying your videos - no sensationalism or clickbait, just a well-presented perspective. Thanks! :)

Brilliantly explained as usual 👍🏻 refreshing to watch the economics explained without being sensationalised!

You’ve got really good content. It’s crazy how KZfaq is not pushing your videos

Stagflation is the most likely way, as until it is accepted that the cost of maintaining the status quo is economically and politically destabilising, nothing will change. So, this is like a peat fire in the wild. The irrationality underlying the housing bubble will continue to burn the economy below the surface, until one day it will flare up and become unmanageable. We now have an economy that is increasingly driven by debt, and the creditors are being protected by the taxpayer, whilst the latter is being impoverished year after year by stagnant wage growth and increasing indebtedness. That is unsustainable in an era where money is no longer cheap. Reality will have it's revenge.

I needed this excellent summary, thank you! I feel like I'm up to date after watching this! We are looking to upsizez and thought about waiting for house prices to fall. But I think we are just going to go for it.

Much greater access to credit (starting in the 80s and extending to the present day) is the biggest cause of property prices rising above affordability. Before the 80s it was very hard to get a mortgage greater than three and a half times your salary. If that was still the norm, demand would drop substantially. This is a global issue.

Thanks for making these videos. I'm a Brit living abroad for the past 4 years and I like to hear what's going on back home. I also learnt a new word: Nimbyism 👍

Great analysis❤

How can Rightmove know the demand from FTBs? Some (but not all) potential buyers use their service to book viewing appointments but the number of viewers is not equal to the demand. Actual offers are not reported to them.

8:17 this is wrong, it's only a loss if you sell it for less than what you paid for it. You wouldn't say that you made a loss if you bought a collectors item for £100, then later get it appraised at £2000 only to sell it for £1500. I'd like to think that people sell their homes for what they believe is the most they can get for it at the point of sale, not whether they can meet the valuation assessment or better.

Thank you for such a measured exploration of this subject when so many You Tubers are losing their heads with speculation and hyperbole.

No politics. No opinions. Plain facts. Love it.

Just about to watch this video. Here in Essex near to where I live about 10-11 years ago you could get a one bedroom flat for about 70K. The same flat now about 130K-140K. Crazy stuff.

Devalued paper money causes assets to rise. The market is international, local income is a factor but not the only factor.

"Be careful and avoid wishful thinking" .... It's the only thing I can afford to do 😭

Nice breakdown of all the main points. As a FTB I’ve been experiencing a lot of your points. Do you have Twitter ?

You should get a KZfaq thanks button so people can leave a donation

Something that i have noticed in kent is that most houses on the lower price range are on auction with rediculase charges, making them unafordable for first-time buyers. I am the only working parent as my partner has to look after a disabled relative limiting our income. We looked at a house with an asking price at 190k and as it was at auction in the past it has a 9k charge on it on top of mortgage and deposit. I donk have 9k to give to an auction house just for the privilege of them selling it to me. That's rediculase. It is getting harder and harder by the day to obtain a house to the poing where i am looking at leaving this country as i dont see a good future in it.

House prices need to come back down to reality, the government can but a 5 year block on the sale of council homes whilst budgets are too tight to replace the stock. My current and still is first home is a shared ownership property and we really need to have more of these schemes to replace what council homes should be there for. The private rental market is just a rip off.

New house builders are offering big incentives to buy at the moment, like £1,000 a month for 2 years, no price reductions though so far

There's an important distinction in the broken UK housing market: there may be a surplus of housing stock with even an increase in house building relative to household/family units (which reduces the argument that higher net migration is pushing up house prices with a demand pull effect) but the unaffordability of housing services (rental/mortgages/utilities) as well as the price of housing assets (house price inflation) still means households cannot buy into the market and are squeezed into a lower quality of housing stock that lowers living standards. Housing costs being higher than household incomes leads to households collectivising their living into multi-generational households or accepting lower standards for the same prices (studio instead of a 2-bed semi). The fact house prices may only be undergoing a modest fall or correction despite high interest payments and tougher mortgage application conditions with a a lack of demand from first time buyers, suggests a crash is not imminent. The risk of a crash is also unlikely due to a host of other determinants that still make housing a good UK investment: foreign buyer investment, inelastic supply of the transition of brown field sites to housing stock, firms buying housing stock but happy to leave them vacant with limited need to profit max returns from their investment, lower taxation on housing-related wealth compared to other direct/indirect taxes, government subsidy of housing welfare payments to landlords, return on substitute investment vehicles e.g. securities being lower, AirBnB returns generating alternate revenue streams. Your average home is still owned by the buyer/occupier who has limited investment incentive, knowledge or liquidity to invest beyond their 25 year mortgage deal (look at how bank saving rates have stagnated against rising credit/loan rates) and disposable income gets consumed by higher living costs so housing as an asset remains the default investment vehicle for most households so maintaining value with the cult of home ownership - it is only unforeseen economic shocks like the inflationary pressure and tighter monetary policy interest rate rise of the late 1980s early 1990s (thanks Mr Lamont) and the Sub-prime banking crisis of 2007-9 that saw house price falls (that was a direct hit on the housing market and banks are not as exposed against mortgage-related products) - today economies are more diverse, deregulated/unregulated and monetarists liquidity washing markets with Covid cash creates more money to maintain prices. With a lack of growth edging other investment vehicles out of the economy, house prices remain relatively robust. The market confidence fears that normally crash markets aren't evident if employment remains high, credit is still widely available on visa cards and the super-rich that buy into new housing stock do not panic if house investment returns are not their primary asset or source of passive income. Doubt buy-to-let landlords will dump a load of property on to the market to create a surplus to lower prices - they'll just raise rents to cover the increase in mortgage costs.

Well, the banks did insist on raising interest rates a dozen times - thereby hiking the cost of living.........

Its happening for us in Australia too. It sucks

great video, would love to see you do a collaboration with moving home with Charlie

My house has literally just been valued at 270k today the same amount you mentioned. Not massively relevant but I thought I'd comment this 😅 I would be willing to sell for less for but not much.

a more complete version of what I keep saying: there won't be a crash in UK house prices. There may well be a nominal "adjustment" and an inflation-related improvement, only because UK inflation is out of control relative to the rest of the G7, but these calls for 25-35% drop that I keep seeing around the internet are way off IMHO. It's like any other asset class: when there's pent-up demand, any price adjustment downwards will be pounced on by those waiting in the wings. The aggregate market therefore can't go down, not in levels that are noteworthy in any case. The only way that UK housing becomes truly affordable once again is only achievable in two ways: one, there is a significant increase in supply either through building or people selling and moving elsewhere, or Britain becomes unattractive and again, home owners leave. The Tories are doing their best to make the UK as unattractive as possible, but unfortunately there are many people around the world who still see Britain as being better than their current situation, the poor b'stards.

Would laws restricting foreign investment in the UK housing market be beneficial.

I am buying for 335k right now with 25% of deposit. I have to live somewhere with my family. Even if we will see drop in price 10% for long period some day will go up. Another factor is we are older every year, our mortgage availability because of age drops every year. For what I have wait? My friend is waiting, and now he is almost 40, nobody wants to give him a mortgage....he doesn't see a point to take any in this age....

It’s all very depressing but factual to hear which is why I like your Chanel alongside some others on YT… I’m a first time buyer and even I think the help to buy is some sort of con as I’m only selling my soul to the devil for even longer just because the bare minimum in life is to have some sort of shelter/security over your head.. but at the expense of my living standards being compromised… I do also feel there’s some sort of inter generational injustice occurring in the property market as know it’s even more unfordable for a FTB.. The property prices have dipped 5% but yet they had gone up 20% over the covid period so I think they are still artificially kept high for a reason …I also feel the ppl in power who have a huge self interest in maintaining their wealth.. One thing I’d also like to mention is that all major economics like America, Australia, Japan, parts of Europe have all had anywhere between 10-20% drop in prices so why is it that it’s not occurred here to such an extent? I appreciate there’s a supply and demand issue and many other factors but I’m sure that’s probably the case for some of those other countries mentioned too so I do feel the inequality is only going to worsen in the UK 😖

Really enjoyed the vid thanks. How I understand the market is £600b was printed during covid & even more before with 2008 by a govt who aren’t concerned about public wealth shown in many aspects of the uk - not political bias it’s just true - a lot of the property is now being bought outright by the people who have this money, as ‘assets’ are better than currency. This is win win for them - strains supply and the prices stay high as they’re bidding against each other not the Jo public anymore (also public who buy spends more money on interest) - There’s loads of money out there but the purchasing is being moved away from the public - The worst thing that will probably happen is once interest rates are down another ‘financial easing’ will happen which will continue to separate the rich - poor gap.

The increasing wealth gap isn't just about some percentage of people falling behind. The wealth gap also increases the wealth of some percentage of people. We see the high end of housing continue to increase and lower end homes being upgraded to higher end homes. Looking only at median incomes and median home values can be misleading. More interesting to me is breaking house values into 4 categories. Luxury, High, Mid, Low. Then things look very different. Same with income. If only 63% of people own homes it's smarter imo to look at income for the top 75% and again breaking that segment into High, Mid, Low. The bottom 25% are not going to be buying.

Quick answer yes or no pleaee

i know somone my age in his early 30's given a 700k house by his dad who's a landlord. he lives in a bubble of fortune, and seemed to think it was good house prices going up, safe to say hard to be friends with somone living in such a bubble. he'll never have to work hard to get property in his life.

Supply and demand. I heard (and not sure if true) that we need to build 300 houses per DAY to accommodate the rate of population increase.

Your government in its wisdom had opened the door for over 3 million Hong Kong BNO passport holders to move to the UK. Just think what that is doing to your housing market. The cheapest flat I can buy here is around 300k£, that's for around 200 square feet! Even if someone doesn't an to actually move to the UK there's no reason why someone shouldn't sell a couple of their Hong Kong flats and buy a few houses in Britain

Moving home with Charlie, has got it right. You ain't seen nothing yet, not a recession to come but a depression !

Well I for one refuse to buy a shithole just to get on the housing ladder. So many homes I see are in terrible condition and they want a fortune for them. And I’ve noticed those close to where I live that are half a million up have dated bathrooms decor etc which tells me that the heating, electrics,windows etc are quite possibly just as old.

Hopefully a future government will reform the supply side

The UK has a supply side housing problem that can start to be fixed by building 300,000 properties for rent and 600,000 properties for sale. But allowing 600,000 immigrants does not help as they all need to be housed preferably not by building all over the south east. The Greater London borough of Brighton and Hive will not sit well with the electorate.

The housing bubble will always be with us.... somedays the bubble expands, and other days it contracts.... Who needs an economics degree?

Homebuilder stocks have lost over -26% their values the month of June, alone. Home value prices are declining, NATIONALLY

For millionaires of course it will. Heading further to an American style of rich/poor with no middle ground

How does high inflation improve affordability?

Less home owners over massively shifts the perception of the public to “home owner friendly” parties. Even now I’d say it’s a risky stance to take as a politician. If I were going for election I’d try to avoid it entirely. Right now it’s a guaranteed way of losing what used to be called the youth vote, but now includes people 30+

How do you know the housing market is overvalued?

With a million a year coming in there is no crash. Prices will stay stagnant for a while then rise.

only way for housing to become affordable is structural reform which improves the growth potential of the country. Land use reform which can improve housing supply will be part of that.

We haven’t seen anything yet in my opinion..we won’t see a market bottom until 2026 & that’s my best case scenario..

Property prices are not that excessive in the UK, contrary to what people think. Look at the property to income ratios for other countries.

No is my guess

Have you considered this, the falling fertility rate here and Europe the population replacement rate needs to be 2.1 children per couple at the moment it's barely 1.1. If you don't believe this look at Japan with the one of the worlds oldest population and dropping birth rates that are way in front of UK. In Japan as mortgages are being paid off their properties are becoming virtually worthless. Supply V Demand.

House price rises areno good for average people. Your house goes up but so does the next one you want to buy.

I took out a 47 year 110% mortgage in 2006. Lol.

Sensible commentary.

Excess demand for housing! Deport all of the non contributors from the UK. Excess supply of housing means a fall in prices. Simple economics!

House price to income ratio changed. Life changed. People less and less create traditional families, people tent to live alone, women work more (about 50% women didn't work in 50s, now it's about 80%) and also live alone with no kids (as a burden) but rather prefer their own housing and own debts. It just pours more money into the system and also more demand for the housing. The ratio might be changed for good, but society lives unsustainable, population cannot sustain and need external people to keep set up living standard.

Lack of building new homes for many years. UK wage to costs never been so bad. All pushing homes out of reach. Stop this attitude of houses as an investment. A house is a home. Not to be speculated with. Building company's buying land and sitting on it until prices rise.

Here's a crazy idea, how about reducing demand by moderating immigration

Our mission to give people opportunities for happy families with homes affordable of small or low income of labour…??? do it all I promise to help people…??

This is wrong house prices are falling but all takes time to feed through. Historicaly House prices never rise when real incomes go down please check this. The house price correction in the 70s and 90s you mentioned happend when real incomes were rising. That's not true today.

its all fun until you realise the uk pension system depends on it. lol...

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I dunno. Ask the Irish how affordable renting and buying a house is.

The Tories aren't building council houses which is what's wrong with the housing in this country

When my wife and I bought our first house in the 80s we couldn't afford to do anything other than pay the bills and run and old car. Some years later we planned a family and had one boy. As time progressed we became more comfortable. Now young people want a family first, don't want to give up their new car, their holidays, their 60" LOED TV, or their expensive iphones. So what's really changed, could it be attitude?

Your failure to mention and emphasise "shortages & price hikes" caused by the Government makes me think you might work for them

I see the Tory bots are on here again. Such a shame decent vloggers pander to these 'people'.

Isn't it funny he didn't factor in the mass immigration of over half a million people arriving yearly on our shores? Don't these arrivals compete with the natives for rented accommodation? Thus causing a shortage of rentals & rents to remain at an all-time high.

Foxtons say my house is worth £100k more. If interest goes down it's likely to go up much more.

Tricky times agead ...or say they are saying...im mortgage free an know not what to expect

NO