With China and the Federal Reserve dumping Treasury bonds, yields will soar as US investors step in

Рет қаралды 152,452

Ай бұрын

China and the Federal Reserve were two of the largest buyers of Treasury bonds since 2010. Now both China and the Fed are selling Treasuries: in China's case to reduce their risk of US dollar holdings, and in the Fed's, to rein in runaway inflation that resulted from decades of Fed policy error.
Japan is the largest foreign holder of US government debt. However Japan now runs chronic trade deficits, instead of surpluses, and have also scaled back their Treasury holdings.
The US government will be rolling over $8 trillion in maturing paper in 2024, and will need to finance an additional $3 trillion in new deficit spending. Almost all this new issuance will be absorbed by US investors, who will demand far higher yields to compensate for higher inflation and opportunity cost.
Resources and links:
Foreign holders of US Treasury Bonds, December 2023
www.statista.com/chart/31941/...
AP, Japan records a trade deficit for the third straight fiscal year despite recovering exports
apnews.com/article/japan-trad...
Japan exports grow less than expected in April, trade balance shrinks
finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-...
Wolf Street, Fed balance sheet lowest since December 2020
wolfstreet.com/2024/05/02/fed...
China's $53.3B Divestment in US Treasuries Signals Massive Shift From Dollar Assets
news.bitcoin.com/chinas-53-3b...
China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification
finance.yahoo.com/news/china-...
The Japanese Bid for Foreign Bonds After the End of Yield Curve Control
www.cfr.org/blog/japanese-bid...
America’s Debt “Death Spiral” Gives US $1 Trillion Reasons To Act Now
www.heritage.org/debt/comment...

Пікірлер: 670

@darnellcapriccioso 22 күн бұрын

Everyone’s been preaching investing lately as a source of passive income but with a 70 hour weekly jobs and limited knowledge of financial instruments, how can I actually stay on top of things, I see every KZfaq video saying BUY BUY! But when and how do I sell for profit at the right time?

@maiadazz 22 күн бұрын

Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert

@Aaronduckstein49 22 күн бұрын

Exactly, I used to undermine the efficiency of a financial advisor until my wife company assigned her an investment adviser back in 2020 and tbh, it’s been the best financial decision I’ve made.

@richardhudson1243 22 күн бұрын

That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

@Aaronduckstein49 22 күн бұрын

Melissa Terri Swayne . She is well known; you ought to look at her work.

@jeromesand 22 күн бұрын

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

@thabom9791 28 күн бұрын

US has overcapacity in producing treasury bonds !!!!!

@antwango 28 күн бұрын

Theyre cheating!!!!

@mosesmwesigye4958 28 күн бұрын

😂

@twohorse123 28 күн бұрын

😂😂😂

@Hs5687 28 күн бұрын

Decades Old PAY to PLAY Scheme 😊

@TH-c1k2 27 күн бұрын

Most definitely

@JefferyDuns 21 күн бұрын

My expectation for 2024 is that markets starts to broaden out more,” what if the interest rates go up? i have a ton of questions....can I safely invest $220k? What should I do differently?

@Dannyholt33 21 күн бұрын

Small-Caps are poised to perform better in the coming year despite Fed actions with rates to make investors worried. you should look into which the Best Small-Caps Stocks to position into.

@PatrickLloyd- 21 күн бұрын

The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped enough for a loss, so they get burnt, no offense intended. Generally speaking, investment advisors are ideal reps for investing, and at first-hand encounter since the covid-19 outbreak, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly 7-figure as of today.

@PhilipDunk 21 күн бұрын

in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.

@PatrickLloyd- 21 күн бұрын

Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

@PhilipDunk 21 күн бұрын

She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.

@JordanReam8186 21 күн бұрын

If China's economic crisis triggers a market crash or a financial crisis, it could send shockwaves through the stock markets worldwide. I’m worried about my investment of over $100K stocks. Is this a time to consider diversifying my portfolios?

@WestonScally7614 21 күн бұрын

If it takes a hit, it might lead to reduced consumer spending and overall economic instability. I advice you consult with a professional about your investment portfolio.

@sting_grayl 21 күн бұрын

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.

@Redwood4040 21 күн бұрын

This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors I can connect with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

@sting_grayl 21 күн бұрын

*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

@Christine-wp2bw 21 күн бұрын

Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

@88eclhome71 28 күн бұрын

Not only is the US inflation out of control, so is the US government.

@hpw-ws6bj 28 күн бұрын

Inflation is caused by an out of control us government. Inflation will not be the only thing out of control. Our first amendment right is gone now as well. You can't protest against blatant injustice in peace anymore. Preferential treatment is in. The Bible is shunned.

@chaoskid1211 28 күн бұрын

Ok commie. At least we pick our out of control leaders.

@MetaView7 28 күн бұрын

so are the people. The woke ppl.

@verypleasantguy 28 күн бұрын

The US government is not the one out of control, but the Chinese government is The Chinese government is so out of touch with the common folks that they are still offering special benefits to Taiwan, such as the ECFA financial aid to Taiwan businesses The current Chinese government is the absolute *_worst_* bunch ever, since they took control over China back in 1949

@peanut0brain 28 күн бұрын

@@verypleasantguy farting nonsense... Absolutely Disgusting

@lincolnteh1963 28 күн бұрын

If china cannot buy tech, chips, there's no reason to keep so much USD.

@Ahoooooooo 28 күн бұрын

True . If us dollars can't even buy us products, what good is it for ?

@Cheesecake99YearsAgo 28 күн бұрын

@@Ahoooooooothey can use it for horoscopes, palm reading numerology and etc 😂

@xw8462 28 күн бұрын

@@Cheesecake99YearsAgogender study

@user-kb9bd5tt8f 28 күн бұрын

It's becoming toilet paper

@irritatedanglosaxon1705 28 күн бұрын

Reality check, what d u hope to buy with US dollars?

@joemartin6202 28 күн бұрын

This is what Yellen really meant by OVER CAPACITY🤣🤣🤣

@santsuma 28 күн бұрын

This was brilliant, Kevin. You are really getting into the rabbit hole and that is great. I bet very few people know that the FED (private banking system) is the main holder of U.S. Gov. bonds. *"GIVE me control of a nation’s money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.”* [ Mayer Amschel Rothschild]

@daveh5947 28 күн бұрын

The Feds are...but with Bank after Bank collapsing it means the Wealth will be owned by less and less people.. will there be only 1 Bank eventually??

@winkstorm 28 күн бұрын

How can we expect China to keep buying our debt when we keep threatening them we could sanction and confiscate their assets? If your bank threatens to close your accounts and keep all your money would you keep many more deposits or quickly withdraw?

@user-qd8yg1fp7i 28 күн бұрын

Arrogance blinds.

@kotenoklelu3471 28 күн бұрын

Yes

@user-kb9bd5tt8f 28 күн бұрын

This is exactly what Australia did to china.. they keep slapping their biggest customer every time they buy something from them

@jakleo337 28 күн бұрын

The invasion of Taiwan is the bigger issue.

@rap3208 28 күн бұрын

@@jakleo337 There is no invasion, that is just what they told you for them to keep the war machine keep on moving.

@bknghiem 28 күн бұрын

United Kingdom 3rd largest holder of Treasury bonds is crazy at end of Dec. 2023. Another country forced to buy up Treasury bonds when Japan is no longer able to. United Kingdom is now 2nd place holder of US Treasury bond holding at present after recent China sale. US forcing 1 dead economy country after another to buy their devaluing Treasury bond. Waiting for Italy, France then Germany to take up slack soon to overtake United Kingdom as 2nd place holder of US Treasury bonds.

@Ahoooooooo 28 күн бұрын

Come 2025 , Canada and Australia will have to start buying those bonds also . Or else .........

@w462dh 28 күн бұрын

before that happens, China will rise to strong enough to say no to USA, and countries will follow suit. that's why it is so important for dedollarisation to happen and many are considering to join the BRICS

@widodoakrom3938 27 күн бұрын

True

@cjfinance3829 26 күн бұрын

Don't forget, UK is a financial center... Funds managers, big money, and corps buy bonds... Don't think the UK has much money to spare really 😏

@jackbrown5184 24 күн бұрын

Um.. actually European currencies are devaluing again the dollar. So it makes absolute sense to buy US t bills to hedge against this… and also collect a 5% return. You should be thanking your government. Not only that, but cheaper euro and other currencies allow us in the US to buy your goods for less.. so even more money for you :) China is just pissed off that we no longer need them. And are unloading decades of t bills at a major loss right now lol.

@sarahkhan2310 28 күн бұрын

The business of wars and overcapacity of dollar printing must stop. With a massive 34 trillions debt everything in the uS is collapsing. Holding on to the dollar and bond is a death trap

@ksanghue5340 27 күн бұрын

The latest unconfirm information, the Biden admint. is planning to sanction China's trades financing banking system. Or maybe confiscate China's reserves, let's see how it work out and who will be suffering more pains later. IMO, most probably the 3.3 Trillion plus because with these amount is of great help to US govt. but......

@davidwoon6402 27 күн бұрын

🇺🇸 couldn't deny anymore. Collapse is near. 😢

@crhu319 26 күн бұрын

The US also needs to drag Euro, yen and Canadian dollar down with it...

@monipenny408 25 күн бұрын

more importantly every dollar traded is contributing to the ge no side industry, created by U$andUK!

@sakarikaristo4976 25 күн бұрын

A government cannot go bankrupt. It can decide not to repay its debts, but it can’t go broke.

@SteveBurg2001 28 күн бұрын

I'm waiting for the failed bond auctions to appear. If nobody is buying your bonds, you need to offer higher interest until somebody decides to buy them.

@coliv2 28 күн бұрын

The Fed can always step in to buy. This is not going to be a fast issue, first the Fed will take much of these bonds, but over time it will be clear that only the Fed is buying the debt alone and everyone else will sell treasuries as quick as possible.

@davidrichards1741 27 күн бұрын

The US is literally printing $900 billion every month to "buy" its own debt that it rolls over. The country is literally insolvent, as are many others.

@bluelithium9808 26 күн бұрын

Won't be failed sales due to carry trade. In other words central bank printing is underpinning much bond purchases.

@davidrichards1741 26 күн бұрын

The US and West will have hyperinflation instead of failed bond auctions. It's early days but mathematically certain. The old 25-cent burger became $1, then $2, $10, soon $100, $1K, $100K.

@christaylor8337 25 күн бұрын

We are there now.

@_Tony.Montana 28 күн бұрын

That won't stop America printing $1 Trillion every 100 days, the only problem is who will buy the American debt ?

@DW-op7ly 28 күн бұрын

The US FED

@lzl4226 28 күн бұрын

@@DW-op7ly They have to borrow from someone first, if that person decides to sell the debt to the banks, that's when the banks can "print" money to buy those bonds... if they agree to buy that is. If no one lends to the government, the FED can't just "print" money and hand them to the government..... well, at least, that's how the rules are supposed to be.

@douginorlando6260 28 күн бұрын

Problem is where else to park money? The stock market looks ready to suffer a recession which will drop stock prices 10% to 50% (and those stock prices are in dollars that are losing value through inflation).

@DW-op7ly 28 күн бұрын

@@lzl4226 The US FED can and has taken up that US Sovereign debt issued by the US Treasury where it also has tried to dump that debt which helped to cause the US FED to come back in and buy back that debt although the Pandemic was a big reason The US FED had to bailout the TooBigTooFail banks once again in the repo markets in Q3 of 2019 before the pandemic hit us

@user-qd8yg1fp7i 28 күн бұрын

@@lzl4226ohh, I do think d Fed can... JPowell just punch in some digits into computer...

@GiorniVenibato 28 күн бұрын

The US housing bubble is going to burst!😢

@jagtanjy 27 күн бұрын

AGAIN!😅😂

@flavius3896 24 күн бұрын

Don't forget the auto market, too. Especially EVs.

@godfatherofcinema 28 күн бұрын

I'm blessed to have discovered this channel. Quality info, analysis and context. Without the bells, whistles and commentary. Just the facts! Thanks!

@donkeykong516 28 күн бұрын

China a few years ago has 3.5 trillion US treasuries, now 800 billion

@widodoakrom3938 27 күн бұрын

Nope the peak is in 2013 when china hold 1.3 triliyons USD treasury bonds

@Ace1000ks19751982 28 күн бұрын

Looks like the EU would have to buy US treasuries, and the EU also prints a lot of money. I wonder how that would play out? Both are having inflationary problems, so they will be buying bonds from each other by printing money. ROFL 🤣

@jackreacher8858 28 күн бұрын

WOOF , YAP YAP , BAU BAU , ARF ARF !

@flavius3896 24 күн бұрын

🤣

@FamilyManMoving 23 күн бұрын

Europe needs USD assets because they played with the value of the Euro to more easily "pay down" debt incurred from backstopping several nations (Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc.). That artificial manipulation (to the downside) of the Euro lost them their status as a reserve currency. Now banks in the EU needs USD to meet global reserve requirements (technically they can use the Euro, but they need more of it to make reserve requirements. The cheaper option is to keep USD instead).

@Ace1000ks19751982 23 күн бұрын

@@FamilyManMoving Isn't it more difficult to get dollars now, because of higher interest rates? Higher interest rates means, a lot of the dollars around the world gets sucked back into the US in the form of US treasury bonds. If what you said is true, the EU is screwed. LOL

@glorgau 28 күн бұрын

Yields will soar when other investors DON'T step in.

@bubuneowoo6161 28 күн бұрын

Foreign demand is different from domestic demand.

@nickmrt2670 26 күн бұрын

Yields will NOT soar!! The feds will see to that. If we had any semblance of a real world debt market we would be seeing 8-10% on the 10year

@adr3ns 24 күн бұрын

& then crash...

@Black_Sun_Dark_Star 28 күн бұрын

At the rate the USA is over-producing treasury bonds, they will run out of willing buyers. When most of those bonds mature will the USA pay in the gold it hoards?

@chaoskid1211 28 күн бұрын

That's right. Come and try to take it😅. This is the thanks we get for saving China's ass in world war 2. What ever happened to Tank Man?

@hanmi1216 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211you are not saving China in ww2. You are the one that encourages Japan to invade China. You are the one that gives Japan the weapon to invade China, just like now you give weapons to Israel to geno cide Palestinian.

@hanmi1216 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211oh what happened in capitol hills January 6,2021?? The president not even changed yet, and the American already forget it 😅😅😅 what a jokes. Really a hypocrite country and people.

@Rudyjosephjr 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211😮 since when did US save china in ww2? Kids nowadays are good in fabrication.

@dice138 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211 The tank man got pulled away by his friend and went home. I guess the western media only showed you the first part of the clip and cut out the end of it, then told you he got ran over by the tank, right?😂😂😂

@iWantPeace838 28 күн бұрын

Well, who's in a debt trap? I mean the real existing debt trap. Don't think it's the African sovereign countries.

@who52au 28 күн бұрын

We Australia are in different category , We don't buy US Bonds ( YET ! ) , we just obey the Master order to buy second hand out dated military weapons and except future build new weapons promise to be deliver in 3 -5 years like the current 3 nuclear Subs @ $368 billion , all the price are set by the US that we Australian government have no negotiation rights .Biden is best salesman for the US and a nightmare for the Aussie tax payer !

@xw8462 28 күн бұрын

mate have you tested your IQ before? you could be the Australia's high record.

@w462dh 28 күн бұрын

that doesn't make any difference isn't it? Australian tax payer's money will go to the US for nothing good in return. the purchase will only go bigger and bigger, as long as the negotiation power is at the US side.

@jakleo337 28 күн бұрын

You really want those French subs? Go get 'em.

@HiggsBoson2149 28 күн бұрын

That's what Empires do as they decline. They try to bleed as much wealth as they can out of their colonies to keep the center, Rome, alive. Eventually the colonies have nothing more to give. Then the Empire falls.

@dtddtd1 27 күн бұрын

Taiwan gets the same deal, just another ATM for US and its corrupt politicians.

@chick3n71 28 күн бұрын

You really analyze this step by step in detail without missing links👌

@kibakobo 28 күн бұрын

Biggest lie sold to mankind that markets are free. 😂 😂😂 In reality bunch of folks in London. Basel. Plays with fate of entire mankind. Wow!

@CosmicSeeker69 20 күн бұрын

But the positive is - now millions of people around the world know what a scam it is - and there's a groundswell of ppl not paying their taxes.

@peterkogl1329 28 күн бұрын

Thank you Kevin. Keep faith 🙏

@mayabergsdottir9622 28 күн бұрын

The fed is paying UK & Ireland under the table to buy the bills & bonds (currensy swaps).

@coliv2 28 күн бұрын

They’re doing the same with Japan to avoid a sell off.

@mayabergsdottir9622 28 күн бұрын

@@coliv2 Can imagine it. Just look at the plaza accords and the bad habits of the 🇺🇸 "elites" that got covered up tnx tp Japan & SK prior decades.

@user-qd8yg1fp7i 28 күн бұрын

most likely.

@user-qd8yg1fp7i 28 күн бұрын

...and how was credit suisse saved...?

@guens01 28 күн бұрын

Lol, this is the end of the US as we know it.

@chaoskid1211 28 күн бұрын

Hahahahahaah. How does it feel that our stealth bombers are flying over your country now? How does it feel that our navy is off of your coast and you can't do anything about it? Whatever happened to Tank Man?

@peanut0brain 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211 go back into your mómă văgïną.

@litesp 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211 We fail when we only know violence and war instead of being rational and diplomatic.

@loongsiu4766 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211 who cares lmao

@roddiechan 28 күн бұрын

@@chaoskid1211they love moving targets for practice😂😂😂

@teatree6228 28 күн бұрын

Japan banned from selling US bonds

@hz240 28 күн бұрын

The bigger question is how much longer can they keep this charade going until the everything bubble implodes? The u$ debt is growing exponentially and interest to service debt exceeds their defence budget.🤔

@user-qd8yg1fp7i 28 күн бұрын

This is the danger.

@w462dh 28 күн бұрын

nothing is permanent, however well they planned it out. but can they face the consequences later on? 2-3 generations of them consume what they have never produced and when the bubble bursts generations to come will need to pay for that. by that time they can only blame on their forefathers for that.

@arnej2174 28 күн бұрын

God is listening to Putin prayers

@user-rl5wm1cm1k 28 күн бұрын

Unknown buyers( the Federal Reserve)! And new pension rules forcing government employees to hold these debt bombs in the government pension funds. Private sector workers in the U.S.A. don't have pensions, so not so much.

@iWantPeace838 28 күн бұрын

Can we allege the US government of dumping her Treasury bonds? I might impose a 100% tariff on that. Risky debts is a matter of national security concern, right?

@giulianoapostata 28 күн бұрын

Thanks!

@colonylaser4860 28 күн бұрын

I love horrors, but this is so much more terrifying I'm not sure if I'm looking forward to how it ends. We are literally digging deeper and deeper and the walls are about to give.

@Nimue_Hexadragon 28 күн бұрын

UK is poorer than Mississippi! Come on!

@basque888 28 күн бұрын

The 8th in the list Cayman Islands are basically US corporations like the big Techs and Pharmas holding them so shouldn't count as foreign.

@DerekCoveart-dk8iz 25 күн бұрын

They are the true ruling power

@ShainWong 24 күн бұрын

Luxemburg is basically fed

@prairiehills416 23 күн бұрын

Valuable information for all investors.

@alanfing639 28 күн бұрын

What's really going on in usa,, I know you are telling us, zonbas like me need to hear it rock bottom. Keep the good work up.

@Amidat 25 күн бұрын

The US budget is unsustainable no matter who is buying the debt. But to expect China to finance them while being hostile is crazy.

@gangsta8929 22 күн бұрын

It’s not China that finances the US. It’s the US that finances China. How many dollars does the Chinese central bank hold? How many RMB does the US central bank hold? The US is not using RMB to import critical goods like crude oil and food. Hell, the US doesn’t even use RMB to import consumer goods from China.

@wulung5943 28 күн бұрын

Japan gets 50% more yen now selling treasury bonds versus 2 or 3 % more interest rate holding treasuries. It makes sense to sell treasuries now

@QuattroSG 28 күн бұрын

Thats wild that little Japan is holding the bag for the US. Hope they are wise enough to use that angle to finally gain their independence from America.

@pinotnoir3654 28 күн бұрын

I wouldn't buy US debt if you paid me. Gold and silver all the way.

@2001lextalionis 27 күн бұрын

Yes this Buy precious metals

@teaadvice4996 27 күн бұрын

Bitcoin 2

@FamilyManMoving 23 күн бұрын

The least performing asset in the last 100 years. But it's your money. Have fun with it.

@teaadvice4996 23 күн бұрын

@@FamilyManMoving least?

@AmericanDiscord 22 күн бұрын

The least performing assets are the ones that go bust😅

@DragonYang01 28 күн бұрын

Inflation will fix the debt problem. Imaging the inflation of 8% a year, in 10 years, everything will be doubled including earnings. This will cause USD to depreciate as well, hopefully to 50%. All the debts are reduced to one half. The import goods will be very too expensive. This will generate more lobar jobs to Americans as the foreign labours becomes more expensive because of the currency. Now, China becomes the #1 economy and they can buy goods from US for cheap labour cost. Problem solved. Ah wait! China is working to replace cheap labours with robots. American people will have to compete with Chinese robots for living.

@litesp 28 күн бұрын

Except that the US won't be producing any goods because industry is gone, and people won't work for free.

@KushLemon 27 күн бұрын

😂😂😂

@DerekCoveart-dk8iz 25 күн бұрын

Robots are meant to replace people, not augment their lives

@sokratzmmf 28 күн бұрын

Japan has a massive currency mess and they aren’t allowed to sell US treasuries.

@wangjim5839 27 күн бұрын

They are the vassal state so have to obey orders

@bemmychan1518 27 күн бұрын

Their master says NO! And the Japan Slave bow low and whisper "Yes Masta". 😂😂😂😂😂

@BulentKizilaslan 28 күн бұрын

I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever,hoping to retire next year.. Investment should always be on any creative man's heart for success in life

@Richardson238 28 күн бұрын

You're correct!! I make a lot of money without relying on the government. Investing in stocks and digital currencies is beneficial at this moment

@wilsonrichard440 28 күн бұрын

Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners?

@Ricgibs 28 күн бұрын

As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor that is verified by finra and SEC to keep you accountable. I'm guided by a widely known financial consultant Stacey Macken

@Melbn-di6mi 28 күн бұрын

Stacey demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit

@adamdouglas9888 28 күн бұрын

I remember giving her my first savings $20000 and she opened a brokerage account for me it turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to me.

@bonniegettingthrumyday2866 26 күн бұрын

We’re holding our own just fine. Thank you.

@cuzmariosaidso 28 күн бұрын

You make excellent video’s thank you

@bojanrimanic6010 28 күн бұрын

Nicely explained. Tnx

@monumentaltravel3745 23 күн бұрын

Well done

@rastoferi6012 28 күн бұрын

Dont worry, Argentina will buy all the bonds. They will pay in peso though, is that cool?

@dice138 28 күн бұрын

Like the US will take their peso.🤣🤣Milel wants to abolish its own currency and switch over to the dollars. Then he even went to US trying to ask Biden for help. But Biden pretended he was busy and not see him.😂😂

@basque888 28 күн бұрын

They have a 10,000 pesos bank notes coming out, only to find out the paper its printed on has more value. And you're asking anyone wants Argentina pesos? 😅

@liamporter1137 27 күн бұрын

Informative.

@mikewalker2080 22 күн бұрын

Thank you.

@JustMe3.1415 27 күн бұрын

Great video. A complex situation you explain in an easily understandable way. Thanks.

@daveh5947 28 күн бұрын

Is China Selling or just not renewing Loans upon Maturity? Japan is over 1 Trillion.. yet gone into Recession, will they cash in on any that Mature?

@Abuucom 28 күн бұрын

Both those maturity aren't renewed and the offload some too.... And surprisingly their buying Japanese bonds in record pace

@bemmychan1518 27 күн бұрын

Japan wouldn't be allowed to cash in. So they'll just rollover, again and again until US default. Then it's "na de" for Japan. Bye bye slave.😂😂😂😂😂

@201beatrice 24 күн бұрын

Brilliant analysis...give us more

@sebastianandrew9077 27 күн бұрын

Your videos are awesome sir thank you.

@LL-cz5ql 23 күн бұрын

Nice clear breakdown, thank you

@wongalex2089 26 күн бұрын

Love your videos, no lengthy over explaination, just concise facts + data, cause + effect. A fan already.

@success7824 28 күн бұрын

Great video!

@williamfox1146 24 күн бұрын

Excellent.

@demomano9915 28 күн бұрын

China is decoupling.

@klexypuncher6963 28 күн бұрын

Nope, China is derisking

@2001lextalionis 27 күн бұрын

China is pivoting to domestic consumption and this is welcome news

@user-dj6hu9gq4t 27 күн бұрын

Who you think the C is in BRICS?

@kevoreilly6557 25 күн бұрын

@@2001lextalioniswhich is why China is dumping cars and steel and green tech around the world

@DanBurgaud 28 күн бұрын

When shit hits the fan, Japan will be eating BS Pie everyday.

@farahsmirage127 26 күн бұрын

Very good explanation ❤

@Dawson2011H 28 күн бұрын

We don’t have much choices, do we ? I would love to buy so RMB assets but 1. It is not permitted and 2. Potential China retaliation to freeze US owned RMB assets.

@jayflaggs 23 күн бұрын

Insightful, thanks. I recently moved from the US to China. I'm very bullish on China and my money is where my mouth is.

@janetupdxpdx3641 27 күн бұрын

Thanks, this was very informative!

@janetupdxpdx3641 27 күн бұрын

I subscribed.

@MASMIWA 28 күн бұрын

I was under the impression that Japan was selling their treasuries to prop up their yen. Your chart seems to say no? De-dollarization should also bring about surplus dollars and if interest rates stay high, commercial real estate loans will not be rolled over and more bankruptcies will occur. Even consumers that are living paycheck to paycheck are going to quit the race somewhere, sometime. The middle class is now the disappearing class as more homeless and marginal families are stretched thin. It looks like retailers are also taking it on the chin with higher tariffs causing their product costs to rise, higher rentals causing their overhead costs to rise. At some point retailers will cut back and/or go bankrupt. There could be an increase in unemployed this year.

@stvdmc2011 28 күн бұрын

Not allowed by uncle Sam

@litesp 28 күн бұрын

The US government is so hellbent on waging war and containment in order to remain world hegemon that they will throw average Americans under the bus without hesitation. We see even more immaturity in Washington with the upcoming elections. Regardless of who is in the WH, nothing will fundamentally change.

@dice138 28 күн бұрын

I forgot exactly which day. But the Japanese central bank did sold off some of the US bonds I think at the beginning of this month. And the Yen bumped back from 160 to 153 to $1 that day. But the next day Jenet Yellen publically criticized the Japanese action like they didn't get permission from the US to dump the bonds. So the Japanese stop and continue bought back even more. So they did try for........exactly one day.

@kibakobo 28 күн бұрын

Federal reserve bank basically prints debt not money.

@tabs9213 27 күн бұрын

What is new about China divesting themselves of US Treasuries? They got a good whiff of the bull squat that the US was peddling in 08. They mostly were rolling over their existing portfolio since. Now they are selling off that portfolio. Not one bit of this vid is a revelation to me. This whole scenario has been laid out by me time and again since 09. This vid is a very accurate representation. The conclusion is that the US has run out of people who have the money to buy new US debt let alone roll over existing debt. The FED and Treasury.are in a box with no way out. Raising rates was a support for a flaging usd dropping rates lets the usd collapse allowing inflation to run hot. But the larger issue is that Americans are running out of money to buy food. Where demand for discreationary goods falls through the floor with a massive deflation for the economy and loss of jobs. Which means that the Chinese who make those goods are outa work. China needs the USD out of those US bonds it is holding to pay their bills dominated in USD. The regime in Bejing is getting desperate and dangerous fearing civil unrest and regime change. Rattling military sabers is a distraction and a means of relieving internal pressures. The inescapable conclusion that i drew in 09 was that the Global Economy of Scale was going to collapse when the post 08 policy of print borrow and spend reached its extremis.

@ObjectiveAnalysis 28 күн бұрын

Hey man big fan of your work and great breakdown as always but what’s up with the random low level audio in the background? It’s the only thing I would change about your videos haha. Keep up the great work.

@edwardlim7253 28 күн бұрын

Thanks Kavin, this is a known issue but the Administration seems to belief in kicking the can down the road.. now it's a drum near the end if the road..

@bobjack2381 28 күн бұрын

Japan dumping now China dumping Good news

@UKkenny 28 күн бұрын

here are some easy number - us debt grows by about 3.6 trillion a year atm the debt is about 34 trillion interest serving this mountain of debt is over ONE TRILLION per year ...let that sink in !

@DocDanTheGuitarMan 28 күн бұрын

Can’t the government change the rules to incentivize (or force) the banking system or even private citizens to but treasuries

@kibakobo 28 күн бұрын

What would happen when central bank goes insolvent.

@willengel-vs8ht 28 күн бұрын

the Federal Reserve sounds official, in reality it is a private bank servicing other banks in the US.

@kibakobo 28 күн бұрын

@@willengel-vs8ht Thats exactly why I asked the question. Why not Let it go under the bus then. How can we bailout an entity that loans us money. Or that bails out other banks. Thank you very much for your kind comment. God bless.

@willengel-vs8ht 28 күн бұрын

@@kibakobo they're playing with taxpayers' money, not theirs. when banks go under, CEO's share price might shrink. they just walk away.

@lordumas 28 күн бұрын

Japan left bag holding 😂

@stanbimi 28 күн бұрын

Yellen will find another excuse for a trip to China, getting treated to some nice Chinese dishes. Again she will return to D.C. empty handed.

@bemmychan1518 27 күн бұрын

Fool us once, Shame on you. Fool us twice Shame on me! No frigging way China will be fooled twice. China remembers the 100years of humiliation by the West and Japan. So ffff off, Yellen! 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳👏👏👏👏❤️❤️❤️

@catto-m 21 күн бұрын

The last bit lmao 😄

@mikem4432 25 күн бұрын

Double digit interest rates 20% plus.🎉🎉🎉

@DailyBeatings 28 күн бұрын

US Treasuries are now being purchased by private foreign investors because of the high interest rates they're currently getting. According to economist Phillip Pilkington these investors, unlike purchases by foreign governments, are rate sensitive. Therefore once yields drop due to a recession foreign investors will stop buying them forcing the US trade deficit to close and US living standards to fall.

@alanc457 28 күн бұрын

Higher interest rates don’t mitigate the risks involved. How will the interest and principal be repaid?

@coliv2 28 күн бұрын

If the us goes into recession the deficit will grow even faster, which means the gov needs to borrow at an even faster rate than now. They will not be allowed to reduce interest rates.

@DailyBeatings 28 күн бұрын

@@coliv2 So the US has two possible outcomes: a) Recession hits, rates reduced, foreign investor flee, and US living standards fall due to the closing trade deficit. b) Recession hits, rates the same, foreign investors do not flee, and US living standards fall due to a devalued currency.

@teac117 28 күн бұрын

@@DailyBeatings Interesting thing is 1/3 of it's exports (~$850B?) is soft services. Tourism, IP and Finance. Maybe in a very orderly recession those won't take a hit, but I think everyone here expects they will. That'll be an extremely wide gap (1.4B) to close.

@DailyBeatings 28 күн бұрын

@@teac117 Yes, I agree. Pilkington is a pretty good macro economist and when he claims this everyone needs to pay attention.

@Number6_ 25 күн бұрын

The only demand is from the fed. Japan went from a surplus nation to a debtor economy by giving its money to the US. What is goung to happen to them when the US defaults on those payments this year ?

@TheTopher3000 28 күн бұрын

Really enjoy your videos. Short, concise, logical. Do we really need to background prayers though?

@adr3ns 24 күн бұрын

It was nice having reserve currency status...

@frankr4038 26 күн бұрын

This is a very well done journey of the US Debt and Bonds forecasted rate increase to pay for it. Thanks …

@user-ok6re8gv1q 28 күн бұрын

Everyone thinks it will take like decades for US$ to drop in prominence and utility…..but the pace of huge changes only accelerates these days. Nothing moves glacially…except the EU. Haha

@gustavo-1972 28 күн бұрын

Been about closer to 2 years no possibility to find a job in software engineering, because they hire young and cheap and brainwashed only. Yet the AI thing is a hype like no other as if depopulation will be a thing to replace with magnificent programs and robots

@jayjaywoodland 28 күн бұрын

nations are sick of imported inflation again and again (because of U$$D Over-Printing), disrupting their economic growth... while us enjoy their spending spree without feeling guilty/shame for the world... in addition, nations are also de-risking their reserves from being looted/sanctioned by us. world-wide de-dollarization is inevitable and imminent, or is it?

@user-rl5wm1cm1k 28 күн бұрын

Convert Federal Reserve buying.😂

@mrclo_l0pz330 21 күн бұрын

What is the constant "mumbling" sound in the background of EVERY video? Curious.

@hodugaming1547 23 күн бұрын

Waiting for action by BOJ❤

@rebharath 26 күн бұрын

The chart with the Fed's balance sheet is wild.

@phobosmoon4643 28 күн бұрын

I had to watch this video twice. Heady numbers, yall macro economists throw around. Nice vid.

@sunking5892 27 күн бұрын

Really? You think because the FED is currently out of the market it can't step back in? You believe the FED can't demand that US Banks hold more US Treasuries? They are going to inflate the debt away and that's one reason gold, real estate and the stock market are going up. If real inflation is 7% and the Fed holds rates at 5% then in 20 years you have gotten rid of 40% of the debt. Problem solved.

@bemmychan1518 27 күн бұрын

Really?? Good luck then... 😂😂😂😂😂 If economic is such simple arithmetic then US will have no reason to fear China, huh? 😂😂😂😂❤❤❤🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳