Beyond The SEAF Model: June 17th 2024
6:16
Beyond The SEAF Model: June 10th 2024
7:50
Kosar: "How long can it last?"
2:09
21 күн бұрын
Dow Targets 41,500
1:32
Ай бұрын
Пікірлер
@TurnkeyTrading
@TurnkeyTrading 29 күн бұрын
Utilities is not a defensive sector anymore. It is a reflection of the increased demand for electricity heading into the future.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 29 күн бұрын
Morningstar's Global Equity Classification Structure classifies Utilities as a defensive sector so we'll go with Morningstar. Thanks for your comments, though. indexes.morningstar.com/resources/PDF/Methodology%20Documents/SectorArticle.pdf
@dfrank2044
@dfrank2044 Ай бұрын
Follow the Money. Thankss
@TurnkeyTrading
@TurnkeyTrading Ай бұрын
I think XLE is making a turn upward bouncing off some MAs. So yes it is weak but it might be turning.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch Ай бұрын
If XLE is really tuning higher, it will show up in the SEAF Model over the next few weeks.
@TurnkeyTrading
@TurnkeyTrading 2 ай бұрын
Excellent work as always. Your data and charts are critical to my week.
@tonyford8006
@tonyford8006 3 ай бұрын
You've better resources for tracking the asset flows. Thank you, for sharing your insights. I'm pleased to see that my holdings mirror yours. Take care.
@jorgegrande8237
@jorgegrande8237 3 ай бұрын
John is a true professional and knows his business. I appreciate how his tools and metrics are very straightforward and easy to follow.
@suthamm
@suthamm 3 ай бұрын
what if the indicators are conflicting with each other?
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 3 ай бұрын
Indicators are constantly conflicting with each other, whether it is technical, fundamental, or economic data. Choosing which indicators to pay attention to at what times is what separates good analysts/investors from not-so-good ones.
@TurnkeyTrading
@TurnkeyTrading 3 ай бұрын
some questions Are your six market metrics ranked in order of importance or impact? You use market breadth which measures a percentage of stocks above a certain level, but have you ever looked at using a percentage of stocks that are trending? Do you send any trade alerts for stocks or options? Might be a good idea.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 3 ай бұрын
The constituent metrics in our models are chosen by quantitative backtesting from a large and comprehensive list of market tools.
@thealternativecontrarian9936
@thealternativecontrarian9936 3 ай бұрын
a couple of questions Are these six ranked in order of impact or importance? Instead of market breadth which gauges the percentage of stocks above a level, do you have a way of measuring the percentage of stocks that are trending? Which I think is more powerful.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 3 ай бұрын
The Asbury 6 are not ranked in order of importance.
@BEARnobull2day
@BEARnobull2day 3 ай бұрын
John your analysis of the markets is always straight forward. I think you and David Keller are the two best for a no nonsense approach. Which pit(s) did you trade in when you where at the CME and what years where you down there?
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 3 ай бұрын
Thank you for the compliment. Over 17 years at the CME I worked or traded in pretty much every trading pit on the floor.
@peterpayne2219
@peterpayne2219 3 ай бұрын
Was enjoying the video but you are showing us data from February 7th? I guess because we're not paying for the service? Great approach but that's not useful to us.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 3 ай бұрын
We're glad you are enjoying the video. The data used in the video is through Friday, March 22nd. The video was produced on Sunday, March 24th. You may be referring to our Positive (bullish) signal in our Asbury 6 risk management model, which was initiated on February 7th and remains intact through March 22nd. On the Asbury 6 graphic used in the video, you will notice that the data is through 03-22-24.
@KunalBalani
@KunalBalani 3 ай бұрын
Very good content. This is very good way to analyze market during times of high uncertainty. Thank you.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 3 ай бұрын
Thank you. After doing this for 40+ years, I block out most of the opinion and chatter and just follow the money.
@TurnkeyTrading
@TurnkeyTrading 4 ай бұрын
Have you ever factored in the percentage of stocks that are trending, rather than just breadth?
@TurnkeyTrading
@TurnkeyTrading 4 ай бұрын
I really like this innovative approach toward sector strength and favored status. Glad I found this channel.
@KunalBalani
@KunalBalani 4 ай бұрын
It seems like most of ranking within technology sector is flaky since past few weeks. This is probably because volatility within technology sector is pretty high. The information over long horizon ranking seems like a little biased with data. It’s an accurate representation of market but SEAF model doesn’t seem like it’s working for technology sector. A single stock like Nvidia and its effects should be normalized. I would probably be more interested in seeing how this model works for an ETF like RSP that weighs all stocks equally.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 4 ай бұрын
Thanks for your comments. We appreciate them. We're not sure what you mean by "biased with data". The SEAF Model tracks the velocity of real money (AUM) as it moves around the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, which together comprise the S&P 500. This is real data, not bias or opinion. The real truth in markets is in the data. Real money "moving around the board". Bias is personal opinion. Like believing that a methodology or model is "working" or not working based on one's own definition of what "working" means at that particular time, or what one's P and L looks like at any given time. This is precisely why we quantitatively back-test our models and methodologies rather than making anecdotal or emotionally driven assumptions. If you believe that normalizing a single stock that is acting "atypically" (NVDA), or using an equally weighted ETF (RSP) during times that you determine market breadth is "narrow", you can test that for yourself. We encourage investors to do their own research to make better, data-driven decisions. Our concern with this approach would be that it presents another issue of subjectivity into what should be a data-driven process. What does "atypically" and "narrow" mean? Exactly when should a stock like NVDA be normalized,? And for how long? And, regarding using an equally-weighted index, which index are you benchmarking your performance to? What performance do you want to capture? SPX is up 7.5% for 2024. RSP is up 3.8%. Since 2023, SPX is up 33%. RSP is up 16%. Which return are you trying to capture? Whatever your answer is, that's the index you should be basing your investment decisions on. More detailed information about the SEAF Model is available at asburyresearch.com.
@KunalBalani
@KunalBalani 4 ай бұрын
@@asburyresearch technology sector is moving because of handful of stocks. When data is skewed heavily towards few stocks the sector performance is reflective of just those stocks and not entire sector. You can see this difference with performance between Qqq and Qqqe. I am referring to this aspect as biased data. When a sector is this heavy the underlying flows within sector can portray a different story and seaf model is capturing inflows within handful stocks not the entire sector.
@user-de8sl6dm5y
@user-de8sl6dm5y 4 ай бұрын
This is consistently helpful information. Really appreciate it and watch regularly. It would be even more useful if the charts could fill the frame and be more readable instead of being so small in a big black window.
@aircave
@aircave 4 ай бұрын
Why does the A6 model change so often... I've seen several videos... i.e. what happened to credit spreads? Can you expand on SPY 'asset flows'?
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 4 ай бұрын
Thanks for your interest. More information on the Asbury 6 is available here: www.asburyresearch.com/models/
@dfrank2044
@dfrank2044 4 ай бұрын
Great analysis and model to trade. Thanks
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 4 ай бұрын
Appreciated!
@thealternativecontrarian9936
@thealternativecontrarian9936 4 ай бұрын
I love the Asbury 6 chart. Is there more to this that I can study?
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 4 ай бұрын
Thank you. More detailed information about our models is available at asburyresearch.com then clicking Models at the top of the page.
@markknoppel4291
@markknoppel4291 4 ай бұрын
Concise and understandable. I find it refreshing that, unlike some other popular finance podcasts, you don't take hours to get the information across.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 4 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@peterpayne2219
@peterpayne2219 4 ай бұрын
So I gather this is your normal video that you send to clients, but this is delayed by by 10 days because we're not paying customers?
@johnkosar8186
@johnkosar8186 4 ай бұрын
That's basically correct. This particular video is produced every week to accompany the latest updates in our SEAF (Sector ETF Asset Flows) Model, which takes place on Saturdays for the upcoming week. We occasionally publish the previous week's video to educate those interested in our research and services on what we do. The current report and video are available to paid subscribers only.
@vedictraditions7590
@vedictraditions7590 4 ай бұрын
Great as usual John. But enlarge your tables and higher resolution please!
@MC-kj6nd
@MC-kj6nd 4 ай бұрын
Thank you John, Looking forward to your next podcast.
@daltonrosario8427
@daltonrosario8427 4 ай бұрын
Great comments, as usual. The video resolution, however, was poor - very poor.
@johnkosar8186
@johnkosar8186 4 ай бұрын
Thank you. We are aware and working on the video quality.
@MarcelLechin
@MarcelLechin 5 ай бұрын
why do you use NYSE rather than SPY market breath in the Asbury 6? Thanks
@johnkosar8186
@johnkosar8186 5 ай бұрын
Simply because I have using that particular indicator for decades and am familiar and confident with it.
@TheLenboy
@TheLenboy 5 ай бұрын
Thanks
@robwtaz
@robwtaz 6 ай бұрын
Does your Seasonal Pattern Chart factor in that this is an election year?
@thomasboyd7978
@thomasboyd7978 6 ай бұрын
Great charts! Showing these is the way to go!!!
@nubbyrose87
@nubbyrose87 6 ай бұрын
Very helpful. Thank you and Happy Holidays!
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 6 ай бұрын
Happy holidays!
@nanjiang9596
@nanjiang9596 7 ай бұрын
Video with diagrams ❤
@josemandi2788
@josemandi2788 7 ай бұрын
Excelente Chanel thanks
@josemandi2788
@josemandi2788 7 ай бұрын
Can you talk more about the ETFs they use and why those?
@johnkosar8186
@johnkosar8186 7 ай бұрын
Asbury Research uses its own quantitative models that screen hundreds of ETFs every day to find unique opportunities pertaining to trend, relative performance, and asset flows. Everything we do is driven by data rather than opinion.
@robwtaz
@robwtaz 7 ай бұрын
Video is better
@detailone978
@detailone978 7 ай бұрын
Video..
@mhfnet
@mhfnet 7 ай бұрын
Always the best investment information and forecasts, thanks!
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 7 ай бұрын
Thank you. You should consider subscribing to our premium research product. You can request further information about services and pricing by clicking here: asburyresearch.com/contact/
@randymartin2040
@randymartin2040 7 ай бұрын
I like the video. Thanks!
@user-eb1cs6nd2v
@user-eb1cs6nd2v 7 ай бұрын
good vedio
@jacqueliu7896
@jacqueliu7896 7 ай бұрын
Video with the audio rocks, thank you!
@jorgegrande8237
@jorgegrande8237 7 ай бұрын
Thank you, John. Really appreciate the new format. You're a market pro and I follow you on KZfaq and the final bar and talk shows and on Schwab now. Please keep the excellence coming.
@paularthur6456
@paularthur6456 7 ай бұрын
Yes on the video
@BruceSteamboat
@BruceSteamboat 7 ай бұрын
Video!!
@jimspeed4028
@jimspeed4028 7 ай бұрын
love both visual and audio presentation
@parisheth9041
@parisheth9041 7 ай бұрын
A much better format!!
@user-fw3kb5ib2r
@user-fw3kb5ib2r 7 ай бұрын
Video is better than audio!!!!1
@jacqueliu7896
@jacqueliu7896 7 ай бұрын
Great video and very helpful, thank you! I think you would get more views, though, if you psoted the video the same day it was recorded.
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 7 ай бұрын
This video is actually a part of our paid subscription service, which is published the day it's recorded for our subscribers. We occasionally post them on KZfaq once they are replaced by the newest version. You can request more information about our services and pricing at asburyresearch.com.
@mpdeshowitz
@mpdeshowitz 7 ай бұрын
Really nice summary Jack!
@nubbyrose87
@nubbyrose87 7 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@josemcordero
@josemcordero 7 ай бұрын
I have been watching many of your videos adding your model to the operation and man, the synchronization with the market has improved a lot when entering and exiting, what a good job, thank you for sharing this
@EngineeredBody
@EngineeredBody 9 ай бұрын
Thanks, as usual
@HawkeyeOnaMission
@HawkeyeOnaMission 10 ай бұрын
Great info. Any chance that your podcast can be put in traditional podcast form so that a podcast app can be used on a phone?
@asburyresearch
@asburyresearch 10 ай бұрын
Thanks for your feedback. We are in the process of doing that now. We will announce its availability in a future podcast.
@HawkeyeOnaMission
@HawkeyeOnaMission 10 ай бұрын
Awesome, thank you! @@asburyresearch