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Once again - I don't see it as a pipe dream if the bots already exist. It's just a higher level of transparency compared to every other big company - they build in the open which has huge advantages (e.g., in hiring exceptional talent).

That's a great idea! I'll make this today.

Humanoids are already a reality today in 2024!

Haha, thanks that's very kind of you! Hope you still managed to find some time to listen to music... ;)

Thanks. I get your points. However, I have to say that the humanoid bot product line is not dreams at all. They have already produced the thing. It's already here. Literally, nothing will stop them now scaling up production of humanoids. Plus, they have already proven their ability to mass-produce robots (on wheels). At this point ignoring the humanoid bot reality would be a huge mistake! Why ignoring it and missing out on this opportunity? (Also, Tesla is top 10 in market cap: companiesmarketcap.com/eur/ so it's close enough to top five...) ;)

Not a big fan of options "trading". Buying long-term Leaps maybe - but trading sounds like a loser's game. Better buy stock (with theoretically infinite holding period and no time decay).

Congrats. What dumb moves are you referring to? I think he's playing 4D chess.

Yeah, there is key man risk. I think he's stable - and I also think that the company would be fine without him (like Apple without Jobs). The Tesla culture is strong and the visions are layed out. If I wouldn't believe Tesla would be fine without Elon, I probably wouldn't invest in the company. The Tesla asset, however, is strong on its own.

Finally somebody gets it. ;)

@@finxter , You highlight a very simple approach to picking an asset and investing in it and trusting in the long Arc of the development of what that asset is attempting to monetize. One which I think has minted many wealthy individuals along the lines of Warren Buffett but without the notoriety over the years.

@@DavidSaintloth Even Munger often said to pick great companies at a reasonable price and hold them for a long period of time. Sitting on great compounders of capital is not the worst strategy in the world... ;)

This sounds like the exact argument somebody would use against APPLE stock in 2007, sry. You (like me) were investing in Tesla based on the electric vehicle thesis and that's why you made some gains. There were people in 2007 who made 1100% gains on Apple based on their Macintosh computer investment theses or the iPod. However, after announcing the iPhone in 2007, the potential of the company changed by an order of magnitude. You need to look at this new company with fresh eyes - and without anchoring your numbers to past valuations. Same for Tesla today.

@@finxter hmm I will take a look at what you said again may be I'm just valuing base on past thesis.

@@Bronceado7184 , The company is a market value of just about 600 billion now.... And 30 billion in cash... And you think they're overvalued? What metric are you using??

@@Bronceado7184 , It's very important to analyze Tesla from the transitional mode in his business lines that it's going through right now. Auto making is a very high cost of entry business that takes significant amount of efficiency and optimization before it can be profitable for an auto business. In addition to that, it's a cyclical business with variation in sales throughout seasons and throughout financial modulation such as interest rate, hikes. It also is a business which in the traditional ice mode was heavily dependent on the dealership model in order to obfuscate certain aspects of inefficiencies in the production of the manufacturers. Offloading those potential risks to a dealership. Tesla eliminates much of those in its Auto business by not having any dealerships, but it is still subject to the cyclical variations in demand and in the macroeconomic climate. It is both an advantage and a disadvantage that it has been lumped into the pool of being just a car company. Given that it has always been really more focused on being a Green Energy company on wheels. Then it bought SolarCity and became a green energy company for static storage and solar generation, then it transformed again to become the autonomy company that it is seeking to unleash in the next year and finally it will become the company that unleashes autonomous artificial labor into the world. Each of these business lines more and more trans transforms Tesla away from the dependence on high cost hardware revenues to recurring subscription revenues for the repeated capabilities of its created devices. In the case of energy storage, it's being able to capture and store and discharge electrical energy, In the case of its electric vehicles, it is the ability to perform transport actions on behalf of a user over and over again, and in the case of autonomous robots, it is being able to perform complex human-like actions on behalf of other humans over and over again. In all these modes, there is an unlimited potential for generating revenue and deriving profit in a near 100% margin mode... Without doing any further math, we can conclude that if it's successful in achieving all of these lines of business, it will be orders of magnitude more valued in the market than it currently is and that alone is sufficient thesis to warrant investing it on a long-term horizon.

@@DavidSaintloth I'm assuming you are using the Cash in hand as it's value. Well I don't think it is the right way to value a stock but from the free cashflow. But at this point I think Tesla investors could use any metrics to justify their valuation. But for me I use the cashflow. But before Tesla was making positive cashflow I was valuing Tesla's market cap and comparing Apple to Apple and making assumptions of the growth of the EV market size and assuming a conservative assumption of what the EV's market size would be in the next 10 years. That's how I invested in Tesla but ever since then I have been only getting an overvalued price for Tesla through future discounted cashflow I also tried using Net income and it didn't make sense as well to as 700 Billion dollar market cap

You sound like somebody who is able to change their mind if presented with sound logic. My view is that Tesla is just like Apple in 2007 - it's not already overvalued as you argue. Let me prove it to you with three counter arguments: (1) Apple in 2007 was not a small company. Its market cap was between $75B and 150B. The biggest company was Exxon Mobile with roughly $500B, so Apple was one third of the biggest company. Tesla is less than one third compared to Apple. So your initial argument that "Apple was very small in 2007, compared to Tesla in 2024" must be rejected based on this. The world has changed and so must your reference point. (2) The reason that today's large companies are almost 10x higher valued than 2007's large companies is that first we have had significant dollar debasement (roughly 7-10% per year) and second we can reach more scale through technology and winner-takes-most dynamics. Both arguments hold for the AI and humanoid bot industries. (3) Your argument that Tesla is overvalued obviously wouldn't hold if they produced $1 trillion in profit in 10-17 years, correct? So, your argument builds entirely on your thesis that either it won't sell 100M units or it doesn't profit $10k per unit. It's like with the Apple in 2007 scenario where you don't believe that 100M people will buy a smartphone. Nothing wrong with taking this position - I just think both these assumptions are not only reasonable, they underestimate the true potential (e.g., selling billions of units at an even higher profit per unit by renting out bots). You don't buy this future and that's okay. That's what markets are here for: I buy your shares and if I'm right, I'll make huge gains and you don't. If you're right, I'll lose money. I'm willing to take the bet. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! ♥️

@@finxter fair enough actually but I'm not selling my stock anyways even though I have profited above 1100% of my initial purchase but I am focus on other value stocks. But my concern is that so many Tesla pumpers are asking people to add more shares of Tesla which in my view is way too expensive and calling it early in my view is morally incorrect because it is building bubble in my opinion. I fear it would create a graph like Cisco or Ford name for some examples. Maybe I am concerned for the wrong reasons and maybe you're right maybe I'm right we just have to wait and see.

Thanks for your perspective.

You're too stuck in the old paradigm. Same argument was made against any technological disruption in history. You're thinking from the perspective of the old paradigm where a significant portion of the GDP goes to human labor. Think from the perspective where a larger and larger portion of GDP goes to AI. This is the only rational conclusion given the current progress of AI. Look up AI scaling laws.

Maybe in the future. Thanks for your interest!

What plans?

Thanks! No I didn't calculate sharpe ratio - would involve too much data wrangling given that we only have one trade per year. I don't think volatility is a good proxy for risk too...

Thanks, man. 🚀

Thanks, Gregs. ;) Appreciate it

Not tried that yet. What can it do?

@@finxter wow I have replied three times and it hasn't been posted. Wolfram alpha check it out I gave the URL and what it does. Please google wolfram alpha plugin for chatgpt. Have a nice day.

Yeah, they always update the model (even within a "macro" version such as 4o). Also it's non-deterministic output...

yes, it's 500.

I tried everything from 1-10. My reasoning was that these numbers of individual holdings are still manageable for a retail investor. Transaction fees should not be too high. More than 10 becomes difficult. Less than 3 is not really diversified. The results were a bit better though for 3 compared to 5 (in most cases, only focusing on return). The risk would be higher though.

Yeah, 500 is not a bad number. Not better return-wise though. ;)

@@finxterthanks it’s very interesting, one can use indicators like moving averages on sp500 to set the buying conditions with the aim to reduce downside volatility. instead of systamatically buying once per year.

The latter - spreads it into all of the latest top 5.

Yeah but when reinvest? It is not meant to be a trading strategy - the less activity the better IMO.

Depends on the time frame, as said in the video. But for longer time frames (e.g., 34y between 1990 and 2024) the CAGR was smaller. For the last decade it was significantly larger, roughly 20% (see video).

First of all, I would appreciate a more respectful expression of your opinion. Having said this, I strongly disagree with your statements. There is no free lunch. The debt WILL be paid. The only question is who pays it. I don't know how people come to these incredibly naive conclusions you just shared. I advice you read your own comment and do some first-principle thinking instead of believing everything they teach you in school. Or just stay in the rat race if this is what you prefer.

Thanks, yeah I try my best to offer a unique perspective. Thanks for being here! ♥️

why is it bullshit

Thanks! Good thoughts. I don't like too many magic numbers like max weight or max P/E ratio. One magic number (=5 companies) is already in the strategy. The more magic numbers we add, the more brittle it becomes. The selection criteria of "growth ETFs" are also random and do not generally beat the market (=S&P 500), do they?

The algorithm buys once in the beginning of each year. No "oversight" needed - it's really a very passive approach to investing.

Thanks, this is an excellent idea. I took the liberty and backtested your variant of this strategy. It now looks more focused - higher risks and higher returns. Here's the video based on your strategy (I just released it): kzfaq.info/get/bejne/qdiEl7h137m0o40.html

Agree, I just don't have a lot of special insights so I sandbag all numbers regarding energy.

Interesting idea! ❤

Maybe some API changes...

ABS! 😅 Seriously, 99% of Finxter content has always been free. Courses is how we finance the operation so we can sustainably help people on the right side of change - I believe in aligned incentives that's why we sell courses and don't push affiliate likes down people's throats.

Tend to agree. :)

No, dividend reinvestment is an after-thought for this strategy. Here's the Colab link in case you want to play with it. Just change the variables "start_year", "end_year", and "annual_investment" as you want. Let me know if you have any comment! colab.research.google.com/drive/1U6pW6hlUi2Lqv7L2IdcddCJDQ9US2eD7?usp=sharing You can play with earlier start years than 1990 but the data gets unreliable. After 1990 should be fine.

Are individuals still holding digital assets? I didn’t know that , I guess a few know about integrating into the micro economy to help substitute FIAT or usdt for a more tangible exchange Experience, it more like capitalization with about 43.307% profits/ ROI weekly though.. Anna Dorris Arthur ,got me covered.

I just checked her up on google, she’s verified and licensed broker.

@@finxter Annoying bots in the comments. Anyway, thank you so much for providing that link! This has been a lot of fun to play with.

First, nobody understands macro. Macro content is BS. Second, I said multiple times throughout the video that this is backtesting and the future might look different. Third, I still believe that due to the winner takes most dynamics in AI that this (S&P5, buy and hold) indexing strategy will beat the other one (S&P500).

Well - these are pretty elaborate questions. I try to answer them as concisely as I can in my emails/videos. My stock investments are currently TSLA, NVDA, MSTR which should give you a glimpse into my bull cases as well (10x or more in 10y I consider likely in each three instances). Not financial advice. ;) 4. AI will change everything rapidly. Pick your task and see AI making rapid progress towards super-human performance at this task - with a 90% cost decline every two years (Wright's Law). Better performance at lower costs that keeps dropping exponentially is just something you cannot beat as a human. The safest jobs will be government (they don't care about inefficiencies) and AI engineering (integrating AI into real world) IMO. Hope these thoughts are helpful.

@@finxter I understand the questions are elaborate. I was asking if you'd consider making several very long videos about those topics haha. I'm new to the channel, so I might be missing existing videos that meet my questions. I work as a business analyst federal contractor. I've determined some AI use cases that would help out a federal agency and we are working on getting access to the OpenAI API to make them a reality. I should consider becoming a regular government employee if what you say ends up being true... My wife and I make a combined income of a little over 200k USD annually. We are 29 years old and investing approximately $5k per month into equities. The approach we've taken thus far mostly tracks the S&P500 but there are more aggressive single stock picks making up about 30% of the portfolio. I agree with what you'd said in another video - we should be focusing on accruing as much capital as possible during this time so that compounding can lead us to financial freedom. I would rather AI be on my side than my enemy.

Thanks, yeah I like the 0% cost ratio and focus on great companies. Beats ETFs in my humble opinion.

Yeah, few people are honestly. Most still go after their daily busywork. You watching this video already shows you're far ahead of most people.