Nice job coming up with the Belmont Stakes trifecta.

I cannot speak for everyone, but I for one am not making excuses for my top choice Sierra Leone losing the Belmont Stakes. I am looking back at the race objectively and trying to find out why the result happened and how I can profit from that knowledge in future races. Making money is the name of the game and we should never take a final result at face value. Looking at the data after the fact, we can come to the conclusion that Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan were over the top. That makes sense considering the number of races they ran in a relatively short timeframe. Also, the main track at Saratoga on June 6-8 favored speed horses. Dornoch took advantage of a speed favoring track and forwardly placed trip to score the upset victory. Miondframe's lack of seasoning was on display with his erratic stretch run, and Sierra Leone was compromised by a stumbling start, getting bounced around early, and getting bumped by Pletcher maiden Protective. He was best of the rest in third and galloped out in front. Based on all of that evidence, Dornoch ran the third best race overall. The best horse does not always win and that phenomenon was on full display throughout the 2024 Triple Crown Series. Mindframe sat a comfortable stalking trip from the outside post and blew a golden opportunity. He could have easily won the race if he maintained a straight line. He is very lightly raced and still has a ton of upside, and his best races should be in front of him. As for Sierra Leone, he ran the best or second best race in the field. I cannot argue with those that think Mindframe should have won. They have valid points. My Belmont top choice did not have an ideal trip over a track that played against his running style, and the race flow was not in his favor either. He was the only closer making up any significant ground. Those are not excuses. Those are the reasons why he did not win. When evaluating a race after the fact, I take into account pace, track bias, race shape, trips, rider error, ground loss, and other factors like trouble at the start and/or during a race, and that helps me compile a horses to watch list. Understanding how races are run and why certain results happen can lead to future money making opportunities.

Do you think Tyler bumped Sierra Leone on purpose? When I watched race life, I saw Sierra Leone make his move and started to come up then Protective came out and bumped him. After that, then Sierra Leone lugged in. If anyone knows what makes Sierra Leone lug in it is Tyler.

@@jall8712 I do not think that he bumped him on purpose. Tyler Gaffalione rides other horses for Chad Brown and he would not want to sabotage his future business opportunities with a high percentage barn.

@@jall8712 Tyler may very well have been on purpose. And definitely that hurt SL in the race . And SL is probably the single most talented horse in the entire crop. But that's not the takeaway. The takeaway is that with all of the trainer's scapegoating of the prior jockey, desperation bit change and pre-made excuses about the track the horse _still_ lugged in like he's never been trained a day in his life . Bettors ignore that at their own peril moving forward. Chad Brown is on skates.

I won't say it was intentional, but the bump probably hurt his chances somewhat, as did the stumbling start, bouncing around out of the gate, and speed biased surface. Horse races do not always go smoothly from start to finish, and hopefully everything will work out for Sierra Leone in his upcoming starts.

I would have to say that Sierra Leone wins by a few lengths if the race would have been at 1 1/2 miles. He galloped out in front after the wire, but we will never know for sure. The Belmont will be at Saratoga again next year. Looking forward to the Belmont getting back to 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park in 2026. Overall, I would not read too much into the results this year. It was just a perfect storm of events that brought about three upset winners. I will keep my usual historical trends for the Derby and Preakness, but the Belmont will be different for one more year due to the shorter 1 1/4 miles distance.

I have not heard anything since the Derby scratch. They said he had a soft tissue strain. At that time, they said he would need 30 days off.

After the race, Brown said that he was not surprised that he did not win due to the speed bias. The thing about Sierra Leone is that is will run a quality closing race regardless of race shape and track condition. I thought he would probably win anyway because this is not a fast group, the competition was questionable, and there were not many viable alternatives in the paper race. Any little thing can upset the balance in these races. For Sierra Leone, the stumbling start and getting banged around early did not help matters. Each little incident can cost a horse a length or two, and you can quickly see how those alter the final outcome. The race flow was not in his favor and Protective bumping him in early stretch when he was gathering momentum did not help either. Who was riding Protective? Gaffalione. You cannot make this stuff up. It is especially frustrating for me because I get paid to be right in these races and missed all three this year. I know the best horses do not always win, but the best horse did not win any of the three races this year. Just a strange occurrence. Sierra Leone should have won the Derby and he should have been no worse than second in the Belmont. To see the Derby and Belmont winners run the third best races is a hard pill to swallow. In a perfect world, Sierra Leone wins the Derby, Muth does not get sick and wins the Preakness, and Sierra Leone and Mindframe run 1-2 in the Belmont. At least one of those three scenarios should have played out, but everything was just out of whack this year.

@@JarrodHorak I had forgotten that Gaffalione was on Protective. Geez, you are correct. Can't make this stuff up. That bump by Protective along with the start stumble may have cost him the win. Can't know for sure. I missed the winner in all three Triple Crown races as well. Strange series this year for sure. I watched the Belmont with my mom. She doesn't wager on these races, but she told me she liked the name "Dornoch" and that was her choice. I told her that he might be on the lead but would fade.

@@paulv7554 The little things add up and a few little things suddenly become a few lengths, and that can be the difference between winning and losing. My wife told me to print on the pp's so she could look at the race. She does not handicap much and she said that she liked Dornoch as well. Maybe we should defer to the women in our lives on the big days. At least that is the way it played out this year.

@@JarrodHorak Lol Sometimes you just have to defer to the ladies. Anyway it won't be the last time we get humbled. You know your stuff though. I bought your card this weekend. I wanted to toss Mindframe completely, but I noticed you were using the 10/9 exacta. So I used that also. It shows that you have a good feel for this. You run this race several times, and I assure you the 10/9 will hit.

@@paulv7554 That is true. It really is a game of probability. The 9-10, 10-9 exacta would come in much more often than the 6-10, 10-6. Everything came together for Dornoch on Saturday just like it did for Mystik Dan in the Derby and Seize the Grey in the Preakness. Seeing Mystik Dan got 0-for-2 since the Derby and Seize the Grey finishing up the track in the Belmont only goes to show that they were in the right place at the right time at CD and PIM. I would expect Dornoch to lose his next start as well because circumstances will likely be much different next time.

The big races can be tough to decipher. That is why racing fans turn to experienced handicappers for the Triple Crown and BC races. I have gone though the Triple Crown Series handicapping process since the 1980's and have seen it all. This year was especially strange because the Derby and Belmont winners ran the third best races. The Derby winner got a dream inside run in a 20-horse field, the Preakness was run over a speed favoring, wet surface, and the Belmont was run over a speed biased surface as well. It was a perfect storm of strangeness in all three TC races this year.

@@JarrodHorak Undercard races on the big racing days often yield good betting option while the big races are frequently interesting for viewing and not appealing for betting.

@@agoodchow That is true. Everyone is consumed with the big races, and there are some hidden undercard gems out there. It is nice to hit the big races, but the other races pay just as well if not better.

Thanks for commenting and sharing your thoughts.. I am disappointed because my top pick Sierra Leone could have easily won the Derby and Belmont with a bit more luck. We rarely see such unexpected results in all three Triple Crown Series races. The Derby and Belmont winners ran the third best races but still managed to win, and speed biased surfaces carried the Preakness and Belmont winners to victory. Just an odd year all around. I had plenty of success on my June 6-9 full cards at Saratoga. 18 top choice winners and a +ROI. Just wish I would have hit the big one on Saturday.

@@JarrodHorak I hear you, Jarrod, Sierra Leone was my pick as well! But there are so many vagaries in racing-a stumble, a speed duel, etc. etc. and the best horse doesn't win. And you never know what is going on with the horses behind the scenes. All reasons that I can't imagine being serious about betting. But you have a strong record and will bounce back. Cheers!

@@CastleMc Cannot argue with anything you said. It is definitely a tough game.

Just a strange Triple Crown Series because the best horse did not win any of the three races. With a bit of luck, Sierra Leone could have easily won the Derby and Belmont this year. Two things stopped Mindframe. His lack of experience and the distance. He could have won on Saturday and the same could be said of Sierra Leone. Mindframe was his own worst enemy and Sierra Leone was compromised by the speed bias. They were my top two in the Belmont and I wanted that exacta. I still think Sierra Leone is the best horse in this crop but this is not the fastest group up to this point. I hope City of Troy comes over for the Travers. That would give the race a real international flair.

Chad Brown said that he made a rider change because of the stretch incident (lugging in) in the Ky Derby. Gaffalione was supposed to have his riding crop in his left hand in anticipation of his bad habit of lugging in, but he did not get the crop in his left hand soon enough. Brown thought that he should have won the Derby and decided to make a change.

Luis Saez was Dornoch's regular rider. He rode him in all of his starts since October 2023.

He was very unfortunate in the Triple Crown Series this year. He could have easily won the Derby and Belmont with a bit more racing luck.

I had the 9-10, 10-9 exacta. They were my top two choices and I would have been happy with either one winning but Dornoch was a bit better on Saturday.

Saratoga and the mile and a quarter distance did not help him. He wanted that mile and a half at Belmont. It's a shame that he had to get robbed of showing that he is the best at the classic distance and i think he is. Saratoga is a bush track in every senser of the word. I would never run a good horse there.

After only two easy wins, I did not really give Mindframe a chance... boy was I wrong!!! (Seems like everyone else was correct on his potential!) He is a horse to be reckoned with for the rest of the year's big races... Although, it does seem like Dornoch does not like to let a horse go by him near the finish line because MF looked like he was easily going by D after drifiting out and then coming back on.

Dornoch was logical if you threw out his 3-year-old form and looked back at his juvenile races and the FOY. He was a good 2-year-old and it looked he failed to develop this spring. He has a nice pedigree and got into a comfortable early-pressing rhythm, and he jumped up and ran a big race at Saratoga on Saturday.

I read that he wasn't quite ready for his second off layoff, but since he was already committed to the Belmont they ran him for the hell of it. When didn't fire, it turned into a workout. Watch his Derby start. Seemed timid on the rail, uncomfortable, with 19 horses coming down on him and the rail on his left.

@@clint7720 Sometimes the experience of competing in a calvary charge race like the Derby can toughen up a horse. Seasoning made all the difference in the Belmont. Dornoch was battle-hardened. Mindframe had things easy in both starts and was not ready for an all-out stretch battle in his third career start.

I’ve learned over the years not to listen to “most” experts. I too thought SL would win… but liked #2 and Dornoch as upset picks and hit the Tri. But yes… most did not like Dornoch. I just know that b/c a horse doesn’t fire in one of the main prep races before the Derby, and doesn’t run well in Derby / bad trip etc… does mean they can’t bounce back. Birdstone and Lemon Drop Kid factor!!!!

Kinda like acacia and Maggie at Saratoga great breaking down races but horrible at picking winners

marco called it

Especially when you listen to those clowns in Fanduel racing formerly TVG. Usually when they say horse is a false favorite that horse wins the race more often

Kenny Peck. Top choice.

Sounds like my day but even worse

My day was up and down too. Ended up w a fat loss to end the day

When idiomatic lost by a long nose (I lost the pick-3 that would have paid $376.00), my bankroll dwindled down leaving me with little for the Belmont. I had a 9-6 $5.00 Acorn/Belmont double as my last saving grace... What could have been with that earlier Pk-3?! Leaving National Treasure (I had the 3 and 4 Post Time and Blazing Sevens) in the pk-3 ending in the Belmont was the nail in my coffin. Should have respected NT more when he barely lost to Cody's Wish... :(

How much did you win?

@@daveschumacher I don’t wanna talk about it :( only 816$ I’m a pussy. I’m so mad at myself

@@daveschumacher but I’m a small time bettor . I only put about 50$ total on the race .

He got slammed hard at the break and took longer to get going.

Will you still say that when he wins the BC Classic?

Track was set up for STG and he blew it. At 1 1/2 SL wins by 3

As soon as Prat was put on Sierra Leone... He was destined to fail...

​@@vambo13257Guess we'll never know

At least you cashed a ticket. Winning is always more fun.

Payout of $8 to show….is still good in these kind of races.

@@roblegg3983 Not a bad payout considering two logical contenders finished 2-3 including the favorite.

Breeders' Cup at Del Mar this year. Love racing at that venue.

Look the replay to understand SL was disadvantaged in the final turn. If SL rider decided to take the rail around the final turn rather circling 4/5 wide, SL could be in photo finish with Dornoch.

@@agoodchow Ya, no doubt he had lots of traffic issues....if he ever learns to get out of the gate cleanly and run straight in the stretch he would be unbeatable at the Classic distance....maybe he will mature and come back as a beast as a 4 year old....

SL was positioned ninth throughout, needs to pass only 8. Traffic not too bad here in Belmont ( unlike Ken Derby ) If SL took the route as the horse placed tenth throughout ( orange jersey ) and ran near the rail at the beginning of the final turn. SL would have been at least in a win photo finish Suggest You check the replay once more

He admitted he didn’t do well in the Belmont… didn’t hit it and had nothing to hide. To me that shows class and I respect that. Triple Crown races are not always easy to figure out.

Ok,, thanks great video . I listen to u a lot. I have a lot respect for u. Thanks for the picks once again

@@roblegg3983 Thanks. I appreciate the support. Tough series this year.

@@SergioSalinas-jw1tg I never like to lose, especially when I feel that I had the best horse in the Derby and Belmont,. Things did not quite work out and I will bounce back in the near future.

Saratoga is tough to handicap anyways

Thanks. I appreciate all of the fans and have high expectations in these races. We will get 'em next time.

Thanks.

Sounds like you had nice success this weekend. Way to go!

Sierre Leone would have done much better at Belmont Park going a mile and a half. This years and next year's triple crown will be bum races...not tests of champions. It's sad that Sierre Leone had to be born in 2021...because he never got to compete against his own at the champions distance of a mile and a half. If I were SLs connections....I would keep this horse off the tracks that favor speed, such as Saratoga. He ran well at Churchill, got caught up in traffic...happens every year in the derby. I would keep him there. Such a shame that they messed up the Belmont Stakes by running it at Saratoga.

@@NalaRichenbach I agree. It is a shame that the race had to be shortened due to the Belmont Park renovation and venue change. Sierra Leone probably would have thrived at a mile and a half. He is by far the most consistent sophomore male runner this year. He just goes out there and runs his closing race regardless of track condition, race shape, and track bias. He is a bit quirky with his stretch antics but that's just him. I assume the Travers and BC Classic are his major summer/fall goals.

Thanks.

Great. Nice job.

@@JarrodHorak Thank you

Such a disappointing Triple Crown Series this year. You could run these races 100 times and not come up with the three 2024 race winners very often. Very strange year.

Great job. Congrats!

You are correct. I was wrong again, and I will be wrong other times in the future as well.