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Пікірлер
@jo8k 6 сағат бұрын
Incoming Dad Joke: Brooklee is a gold medal winning reporter 🥇
@kainmitchell898 8 сағат бұрын
Love Logan’s warrior mentality!
@Urreasteve 9 сағат бұрын
I really appreciate Logan. Shining the light in darkness lol
@mfmcintyre 2 күн бұрын
Invest in the financial markets before retiring by diversifying across assets, allocating a small portion of your portfolio, staying updated on market trends, and considering long-term holding to balance risk and growth
@JasperMaartenHoutman 2 күн бұрын
I feel sympathy for our country, low income people are now suffering to survive yet inflation and recession keep increasing daily, many families can't even enhance the good cost of living anymore. You've helped me a lot Sir Brian! Imagine I invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
@ufuksenol2005 2 күн бұрын
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
@PineHosting 2 күн бұрын
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.
@icucmerc 2 күн бұрын
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
@MA-KEJointVenture 2 күн бұрын
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
@seanoconnor8138 3 күн бұрын
mortgage rates are already down 120 bp from peak. 2024-2025 cuts to the FFR are already priced in.
@LoganMohtashami 3 күн бұрын
Policy and the 10-year yield still is in expansion levels not yet pricing labor market breaking, like it was trying late 2022/ early 2023
@seanoconnor8138 2 күн бұрын
@@LoganMohtashami true, when a recession becomes "official" as the unemployment rate hits 5 next summer, there will certainly be some rate cuts and demand for bonds!
@justsomeguy2943 3 күн бұрын
Logan: I would like to learn about the "levers" the Fed has.
@LoganMohtashami 3 күн бұрын
Remember what the Fed did with Silicon Valley Bank over the weekend. They can merge banks quickly to create less credit stress in the economy. I believe they will do that with the commercial banking debt due over the next few years. They can open credit markets more constructively and buy distressed debt if needed. They went all in during COVID-19, so they feel they can pull some levers if worse comes worse. This is also one reason they kept hiking rates after the banking crisis in 2023 I don't believe they will do this, but one sentence about buying mortgage back securities or stopping the QT can also move markets. They have levers to pull.
@justsomeguy2943 3 күн бұрын
@@LoganMohtashami Thank you!
@peterbedford2610 3 күн бұрын
The real estate industry has been pretty beaten down and now new construction has been slowing down....
@LoganMohtashami 3 күн бұрын
The existing home sales market has been in a recession since June 5th, 2022, and now the construction new home sales market is next at risk. The 5-unit permit data has put the housing sector in a recession since September 2023.
@Build2RentTX 3 күн бұрын
I am building a rental home now and overheard the construction guys talking Friday that they don't have much in the pipeline and are looking for work. So it sounds like it is coming quickly or beginning to happen now.
@LoganMohtashami 3 күн бұрын
We still have a backlog of orders nationally to work off of in specific markets. However, with that said, 5 unit permits are already at recession lows and single family permits have fallen for four months in a row, it's the first time in the cycle that has happened together. So, if you're not working on a backlog project in a non-pipeline part of the U.S., that can be an issue for construction labor going out
@House_hacker_619 3 күн бұрын
@@LoganMohtashamiwith increasing inventory. Do you have a 📈 how many are need vs want to sell?
@LoganMohtashami 3 күн бұрын
@@House_hacker_619 The weekly tracker article shows the latest data nationally, line by line, with the context of the previous years; that report comes out every Saturday. That is fresh weekly data, months ahead of the NAR data
@DavidECollinsGolf 3 күн бұрын
Logan. Have you heard any of Melanie Wrights predictions
@LoganMohtashami 3 күн бұрын
With housing, I have a rule of thumb. I never listen to anyone unless they have 2024 forecast written in 2023 or the 1st month of 2024 5 years of housing economic forecasting and modeling A live housing economic model I only read people's work if I see someone with this. I have done this for 14 years, so real-time housing modeling is essential to track economic cycles and housing. Her and I had a discussion on Twitter 18 months ago
@GPCookieMonster 3 күн бұрын
Logan, can you talk with Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money?
@user-dn5ud1cr3b 4 күн бұрын
We need less czars and not more. Blacks for Trump 2024! 🇺🇸🏡🇺🇸🏡🇺🇸🏡
@chrisc7271 5 күн бұрын
Trump enabler as you support his evil and racist caused. Stop listening to this Logan dude!
@chrisc7271 5 күн бұрын
Logan must be an extremist since he supports felon Trump. Enabler of liars! Just unfollowed Logan! No integrity as he is an Enabler!
@chrisc7271 5 күн бұрын
Logan supports the felon orange 🍊 man. Unfollowed your lead analyst!
@chrisc7271 5 күн бұрын
Unfollowed this Trumper!
@chrisc7271 5 күн бұрын
Trumper
@gregdaugherty6065 6 күн бұрын
Perhaps we should consider the possibility that government regulation of insurance, building codes and mortgages is causing these circumstances.
@peterbedford2610 6 күн бұрын
The mortgage business could use the help.
@GauchoDon 7 күн бұрын
So not a buyers market, but “savagely unhealthy” is over?
@LoganMohtashami 7 күн бұрын
Yes, days on market up, monthly supply up, and active inventory up
@peterbedford2610 7 күн бұрын
Resiclub is tracking inventory growth by state pretty closely. It looks like some states are very different from others. NV is still way down. CA is about 35% below 2019. TX is at 2019 levels.
@LoganMohtashami 7 күн бұрын
We have inventory data in every zip code in America live weekly, so we have a few areas already at 2019 levels. Our live weekly data is different from those of NAR and others. Now, 2019 levels historically were the historical low point before 2020 NAR data The average was 2,000,000 - 2,500,000 going back decades; of course, the population has grown, so the homeowner vacancy rate is near all-time lows today. 2019 data 1.59 million low - 1.92 million high Even though that was historically low, we still had more days on the market than 30 days and more functional marketplaces than the 1.32 million we have today nationally.
@peterbedford2610 7 күн бұрын
So, we really are still well below the long term numbers. But, we are steadily heading back to "normal" ...
@LoganMohtashami 7 күн бұрын
@@peterbedford2610 200,000 below the low level 5 decade average, yes. However, a monthly supply of over four months is a balanced monthly supply; it's happening near the seasonal peak, but if this were the case year round, it's a balanced market. This is why demand is always crucial. If rates fall and demand picks up, the variable changes. We have been at depressed sales levels for over two years now. So, we needed to get a buffer in inventory for the future.
@seminole2001 9 күн бұрын
This dude looked into the crystal ball and told you the future. Too bad the industry didn’t take note at the time to prepare more.
@chrisc7271 10 күн бұрын
Trumper
@AntonStetner 10 күн бұрын
This is the so true excellent points made. And building multifamily in areas like mine, the Seattle Metro, is more like 36 to 48 months.
@christianquintino8103 11 күн бұрын
Keep going , you are doing a great job with the interviews
@AlexGoldovsky-p9j 11 күн бұрын
Few points: 1. Fraud is not covered by Title policy as well. 2. The risk on fraud is very low ( for both AOL and Title Policy ) as it would be used for Refi (when the original transaction did borrower approval and verification, through fraud guard, VoE and VoI, as well as ID verification) and HELOCs/2nds, 3. Unrecorded muni liens are also covered through AOL review.
@brianallen4657 13 күн бұрын
Nicely produced guys. I am a podcast subscriber but glad I found you here. I prefer this medium.
@christianquintino8103 13 күн бұрын
VERY GOOD REPORTING , Sarah and Mike....... you guys killed it with your study .
@tb6031 13 күн бұрын
After looking at the available inventory, a higher percentage are on the high end of the housing industry.
@tb6031 13 күн бұрын
😊
@peterbedford2610 13 күн бұрын
It does appear that investors are not buying at his time. Rentals and flips , that pencil, are hard to find.
@House_hacker_619 14 күн бұрын
The problem with crashbros is they’re thinking median wages is for both couples, everybody is making the same pay and everybody is working at tech jobs 😂.
@House_hacker_619 14 күн бұрын
I remember back in 2008-09. I was seeing tons of foreclosures and short sales in my market. I knew a lot of military were getting approved and buying 2-3 houses at the top of the market. They were thinking they can just rent it out and cover the mortgage. The problem is everybody including minimum wage earners were doing it which caused the builders to overbuild and 80% of those mortgages were ARM loan. We over flooded the market and renters had more choices. I remember a lot of small builders went out of business including investors. Only big builders like lennar had survived. I just got lucky I bought in June of 2009 and never sold it. I kept it as rental because I had to move due to military order. I’m also in San Diego surrounded by ocean and south is Mexico so when builders over flooded the market meaning they’re going to run out of land in the future. Dang I was right. I came back in May 2022 and builders were only building condos and townhouses. You better able to afford 1.5-2M not to mention 1k hoa and mello Roos. That if you want new construction SFH. I knew it’s not going to crash I decided to buy my 2nd property in August 2022 at 685k with rate of 4.375. I had to be strategic with a little luck on my side I found a cash flow property. Now the property is valued at 895k.
@tyronevaughan5847 14 күн бұрын
where do you think the fed funds/SOFR needs to drop to get permits/new supply started up again? Developers in construction loans are usually pricing off of SOFR no? I would think single family developers have a little more wiggle room as they can do rate buy-downs vs multi-family who just sell?
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
In late 2022, mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 6%, and permits started to grow. Not that it was working from a really low base; the forward-looking builder survey data had a slight uptick in the last report, so if rates keep on heading lower toward 6%, that should be able to grow permits after these last four-month declines in permits.
@IniyanSElango 14 күн бұрын
No wonder your viewership is this low with daily video cadence. 😂😂
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
Top 10 national business news podcast, but that's the audio side, We are working on our KZfaq game
@peterbedford2610 14 күн бұрын
I think you guys are improving quite a bit. I subbed
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
@@peterbedford2610 It's a work in progress. Also, we don't do doom porn here; most of the interviews are business-related, and only Sarah and I talk about economics in general terms.
@paroffice 14 күн бұрын
If there is a cut then that unleashes demand which will drive up prices. The builders need help from municipalities in building more affordable housing. Our biggest 80 year problem is suburban sprawl. Is a vicious cycle of eating land and booms and busts.
@paroffice 14 күн бұрын
And they don't need municipalities trying to create housing that discriminates people because they only want multiple neighborhoods of millionaires. So they force builders to make high priced MCmansions. Well that's done because even too earners can't afford this new junk. Stop the silly ordinances, stop the excessive permit costs, and let them build what the market demands.
@TIAmovements 14 күн бұрын
Can you explain why our 30 year fixed is so great and why it makes us unique compared to other countries?
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
Other countries are tied to short-term debt products, which gives them more buying power during low interest rate periods. However, that only works if rates never go higher Many countries have higher short-term rates, and their loans are recasting, which is a significant payment shock. For example, Canada is now trying 90-year loan modification to keep the cost of homeowners low enough for them to stay in their homes. 30-year fix, even though the rate is higher vs a short-term debt product. It's a fixed debt cost, and your wages rise yearly, so naturally, your debt cost becomes less as you age. Also, when your wages rise more during an inflationary period, it's a significant cost hedge against inflation. Mainly, there is no recast risk in payments.
@a104917 14 күн бұрын
A lot of the value is in the fixed vs adjustable behavior. The stability of fixed rate allows families to focus on other parts of their lives and gives peace of mind which is great for discretionary income spending in capitalism. I'm always baffled other developed nations don't even experiment with it let alone offer it.
@peterbedford2610 14 күн бұрын
Transactions slowing down even more this year.
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
Total existing-home sales will be up this year, not a lot, but it will be a positive year; with rates falling now and not heading toward 8% like it did last year, it will create a shallow bar to show positive YoY data prints with some of the weekly and monthly data in October & Early November, which I would mostly ignore because it's simply a low bar
@peterbedford2610 14 күн бұрын
Thanks for clearing that up. So, this year transactions will be slightly up ..
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
@@peterbedford2610 Only because it's the lowest bar ever recorded in history. I know many people had higher sales forecasts early on, but I wrote that article in March about February sales being the monthly year peak because of rates. Now, if rates drop in the 2nd half of the year and we get a 12-14 week pick up on apps, then you rise up a degree, this is why weekly apps and our pending contract data is an early indicator of sales that will take months to show up in the reports
@RabbiYitzchakBenForeskinowitz 14 күн бұрын
lolstreetshitter
@LouisMorganxb3 16 күн бұрын
Luckily, my spouse and I were able to pay off our mortgage early. We took the money we were spending to accelerate our mortgage repayment and invested it right away while we were both still working. We were able to retire early after accumulating what would have been our home payment for over 7 years and maxing out our 401K/403B plans. Thankfully, both of our parents taught in us the importance of living within our means.
@AlexClarkcompany 16 күн бұрын
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I know this since I've been there myself.Seeking guidance from a professional is preferable if you're new to investing or don't have much time.
@BaileyJames-zv2ddd 16 күн бұрын
Investors can have different investing results even with the best strategy and suitable assets. Understanding how experience plays a critical part in successful investing is key. Since I was aware of this, I consulted a market analyst for advice, which helped me build my account to about a million dollars. Having strategically cashed out just prior to the market correction, I'm now taking advantage of buying opportunities once more.
@OscarOwenn 16 күн бұрын
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances
@BaileyJames-zv2ddd 16 күн бұрын
Leah Foster Alderman is the licensed expert I use. Just look up the name online.
@LouisMorganxb3 16 күн бұрын
She seems to be literate and well educated. Thank you for sharing, I found her webpage when I searched for her online.
@KnoxvilleTN 17 күн бұрын
For the greater good, you should let the Tracker article be outside of the paywall... #forthepeople #educatethemasses 🙂
@justsomeguy2943 17 күн бұрын
"You down wit me?" "Yeah, YOU KNOW ME!" Logan HA HA HA HA
@LoganMohtashami 17 күн бұрын
Thankfully someone got that
@justsomeguy2943 17 күн бұрын
@@LoganMohtashami Just us old people, Chart Daddy!
@WillJohnsonSD_Inspector 17 күн бұрын
Chart Daddy should show charts for us slow ones
@AntonStetner 16 күн бұрын
More charts!!! 🤣👍
@LoganMohtashami 14 күн бұрын
Tons of charts in the articles and the stand still 🙂
@gthornergolf 17 күн бұрын
The only company recruiting is exp
@Manojwouldgo 18 күн бұрын
Title insurance is the biggest scam ever. I bought and refinanced my home several time. Each time someone robbed me. Complete scam.
@mercedess550 20 күн бұрын
Reventure is a clown. His flock of frustrated homebuyers and forever renters never get upset with his garbage analysis because he tells them what they want to hear. The broke renters keep watching him because it's a numbing drug. Any real participant in the market ignores him because his bad analysis and junk predictions hurt them. They unsubscribe.
@sharonmoten5406 20 күн бұрын
👏👏👏
@sharonmoten5406 20 күн бұрын
Yes we all need a Logan! ❤
@seanoconnor8138 21 күн бұрын
still no demand.
@LoganMohtashami 21 күн бұрын
Near 5,000,000 total home sales still this year
@seanoconnor8138 21 күн бұрын
@@LoganMohtashami 4 million, 5 million, who's counting :p
@LoganMohtashami 20 күн бұрын
@@seanoconnor8138 I say that because it's rare post-1996 for existing home sales to trend below 4,000,000. Adjusting to the civilian labor force, these are the 3 lowest home sales years ever, but still near 5,000,000 total home sales. In the early 1980's home sales crashed to 2,000,000 from a 4,000,000 peak
@devenjohnson12 21 күн бұрын
Realtors said this back in 2008 lol. Go ahead and keep buying houses!
@LoganMohtashami 21 күн бұрын
Four million active listings in 2007 vs. 1,128,000 today, four years of rising credit stress before the job loss recession 2008, near all-time lows in credit stress for homeowners today. Different market place
@sociolocomtsac 21 күн бұрын
Unless there is massive unemployment, nothing will change. Maybe some problems in FL, TX and NV, but the rest of the country is just fine.
@peterbedford2610 21 күн бұрын
Thinking this is a bubble is completely 2008 phobia and lacks all logic.
@edenjordan4721 21 күн бұрын
I am a long-time Realtor outside of Jacksonville, Florida. Thank you for this. I followed Nick and stopped because his information, while interesting, was incorrect. I do agree that we have A LOT of new construction, and they are cutting prices and offering incredible incentives. This is driving homes in the $300-$450 resale market to reduce prices to compete. The good news is that there is a lot of equity. We need the sellers to realize the builders will cut to get buyers, and we need to have either rates or prices come down.