June median sales price just set a record. If you list a house 30% over market, leave it on the market longer, cut price by 20% and sell it for 10% over list…the price still went up. Realtors need to stop representing the market with their own pocketbook which does in fact take a hit from the above metrics. Real estate simply tracks inflation, m2 and the expansion of money supply being REAL assets that home are.

You can just look at m2 vs median existing sales price and stop guessing 😂. Affordability, days on market, inventory levels, price cuts from list, rates don’t matter. What matters is finals sales prices. These non consequential metrics only affect volume and therefore the pocketbook of the middleman. Therefore the market crash is in the pocket of the agent/broker. The market prices simply track inflation.

Rates should not go down. We are at historical norms. People just want free money

I guess the realtor mantra " we are not building enough housing" has gone out the window. Please can you confirm that we have p[lenty of available housing

the crash is happening!!!!

So much mixed data that conflicts with each other. And I do not have special insight but it appears in Sarasota/Bradenton that a lot of listing got pulled.

Just here to say no crash...Just cause someone wants it to crash doesn't mean it will

Housings biggest liability is a FED rate cut.... not working. If the FED cuts early (highly probable) and then inflation heats back up, there will be pure and total chaos. The only reason the 10 year UST is trading at 4.17% is because a lot of traders are currently renting these longer dated bonds. They are doing this because the conventional wisdom is that rates are going to come back down in the near future- and bond price is inverse of yield. These traders have no intention to hold these bonds to maturity. This is important because if inflation heats back up and the future of rates becomes "uncertain" then all this "rental" demand for 5-30's goes away and that will spike yields much higher. IMO the 10 year could hit 6.5% which will put mortgage rates into the 9's with very good credit. Inflation is in charge.

Complete chaos, whoa

Your last video said inventory decreasing now you say going up. You guys have no idea

Get this guy to 100k subscribers!!!

Buying is great if you find a great deal in great location. It's not really a "profit" until you sell, though. So your networth will climb, which feels pretty good, but you would still have to pay rent or buy a new house if you were to sell. You would have collateral, though, which means you could borrow money for other things. Or you become a landlord like Graham and you get other people to pay your mortgages for your downpayment/investment. But owning a house will soak up a lot of your income compared to finding cheaper rent. Mortgages kind of suck, because they make you pay more towards the interest than the towards the actual ownership of the house.

No more crazy froth along the Cali central coast. Houses in the $1.25-2M range still selling quickly but above that price point it gets much harder. Lots of price reductions on the $4M (and above) sector.

The most shocking thing that you've mentioned a few times in your channel Jason is that we had a 'Sharp Correction' in prices in 2022. I don't ever remember a sharp correction here locally in Vent. County....so maybe other areas are more unstable.

Inventory has to 10x for a crash. There will probably never be another 2008.

Can you give us the numbers for California specifically. Can you tell us how many homes are in the market last year at the same time in California as opposed to what's on the market now? Thank you.

More inventory. Yay 🎉🎉🎉

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What a stupid housing market we have right now. People need to stop buying at these insanely high prices. I understand some have to move and have no choice but a lot don’t and they are doing it just because they want a new house. I’ve wanted a new house for three years now but I’m not doing it with these dumb prices.

If only this can happen in the Northeast too.

Wild? More like dead.

Happy Tuesday Jason Walter 😊I see spreadsheets!🤣😂🤣

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Don't forget, median SALES price assumes there are actual transactions being completed, meaning the bottom 98% of homes by price, roughly less than $800,000 are not being transacted upon, even with multiple 10+% price reductions after being on the market for months. The median home value is not up, it's 25% down and still not selling. You need a TRANSACTION to see home values falling, and there are simply no transactions happening on the homes that have spiked in inventory 1000% in the past 8 months. The housing crash IS happening right now, but the median home price "sold" statistic won't reflect it until homes in meaningful amounts start to transact in the $160,000-$350,000 range again, which won't happen for a few more months - and at 35-40% lower than their value 1 year ago. Again, unemployment is skyrocketing, everyone's costs of living is up 50% in 3 years, outpacing their income growth by 50+% in many cases, personal savings rates are at the lowest level in US history, and high interest credit card debt is at its highest levels in US history simultaneously. But you'd make the argument that the housing market is going to be okay while $200,000 homes are "valued" at $425,000 with 6.9% interest rates while the median $55,000 earner's bills just went up 50% AND they're on the brink of losing their income entirely? It's 2008 all over again, only 45% worse, conservatively. Math, not emotion.

And who and who’s going to be purchasing all these houses? People cannot afford home values as of right now with inflation if prices continue to rise no one is going to be able to afford homes that the man is not there unfortunately because we can’t afford it

I don't know how Fanny Mae thinks it's possible to get "blood from a stone". If folks don't have the money, they CAN'T buy. It's just as simple as that and this recession is bleeding Americans dry. I predict the possibility of a housing market crash (of about 47% present market value) by Autumn 2025 or a Spring 2026.

We have been on the sidelines for years now because we lived thru the last bubble and the political and economic instability is the worst we have seen albeit masked by gvt and MSM.

Recently got a home with a decent rate 6.5 better than 6.8+ and a great price in Monterey county area although it’s a fixer upper. I think the market definitely is bad and people still need to know how to evaluate what a good house is even if the market improves because people wanting to buy houses will definitely cause prices to go up if there are bidding wars

Houston was recently hit by another hurricane. A lot of activity dropped because millions had no power for weeks. Activity should return to June trends

The data you represent is by same people who told us inflation is transitory

Great video, I love you using the graphs in Excel in the video Can I make a small suggestion? Consistently Make each year, the same color on all graphs Meaning make 2024 graph color, the same for all graphs that you show 2024 data Hope this helps have a great day

Keep telling yall no crash...

Like politics... all politics are local. It really depends on the area you live in. What's sure is that the housing market is weird and ugly, which is the name of an article in the L.A. Times this year that discusses the market. In that article there's an interesting article that show income growth and home affordability. The graph is ugly. And if the graph were to hold true going forward, houses in Pasadena California, that were selling for $700k 5 years ago would be selling for $4 million 10 years from now. But we know that can't be true because no one could afford it. We're looking at a market that is hopefully peaking. There must be a correction in the market or owning a home is not a reality for young Americans going forward. And it's more complicated than that. It would mean that the real estate industry is circling the drain. And even corporate flippers would lose money and lose their cash cow. These corporate cash home buyers are hurting the market, along with interest rates. We not only need a correction, but we need laws that makes corporate home speculating undesireable, i.e., tax them at a high rate. Essentially, if you don't plan on living in the house, expect to pay a hefty premium. If this fails to happen, the housing market will be a mess for generations of Americans, and along with it the economy.

Love the immediate start, with no unnecessary fancy intro. 👍

We are seeing a rise in home inventory which should lower prices. They are like many of these banks and companies who think the market will not crash. 2008 had the same thing happening back then.

I believe we will have a spike in inventory after rate cuts because i know a few people waiting to list until rate cuts so we will have to see if buyers come back too

Active inventory dropping? That’s a red flag for the doomers out there

i like that you showed what's happening in real estate in several markets. thanks

Hey Jason, really enjoying the channel! I’m looking to invest in a property within the following 6 months but I like to keep up with the market too but am still relatively new to it. At around the 3:10 mark, you say that home sales decreased due to inventory and rate increases. I understand the rate increase aspect but how would rising inventory lead to less sales volume? I’m struggling to understand that

When I have an option to rent or buy and the rent is over 1k cheaper. It’s a NO BRAINER. Keep the savings til the rent/mortgage gap closes

Many years ago i was in home building, i scoffed at it and went to college instead. They just sent my stem job to china and i ended up broke. If id stayed in housing id have a nice home and some money. I failed to realize as long as the population keeps increasing, so will housing. Im 59 years old now, just bought an old backhoe, building a house....

How long before realtors understand that days on market has nothing to do with sales price? Nor do inventory levels. Real estate pricing simply tracks inflation or the M2. You can see this by simply pulling up M2 vs Median Sales price. What maters is what homes are selling for not what they are listed for, what price cuts you see, how many you see or how long it took to sell…it’s the sales price that matters. All else is noise. The market crash is in the pocket of the middleman that relies on transaction count. Realtor stats are not what drives home prices no matter how much these myths get repeated. Expecting home prices to drop is like expecting inflation to go away. Pull up the m2 you can easily see why prices went up at the clip that they did during the post COVID money printing, why prices contracted when M2 shrank some and why they are going up again as the M2 again started to expand. Data you can see in the median existing sales price that just set a new record. Rates and affordability have never affected price. Rates affect whom and how homes are purchased. Price is generally inflation driven.🎉. Stop listening to the doomers. As for “affordability” RE in 3rd world countries where only the top 1% can afford a home is no less expensive because prices for REAL assets track inflation NOT the speed of liquidity. If affordability drove price of real assets we’d already be seeing price declines in years past as affordability the way it is being measured has been going down for years now. All the best and prosperity to anybody reading this.

Inventory still Creeping up in Phoenix

How do they flip forecast everyday?

If mortgage rates keep going lower it WILL run asking prices back up, People WILL pay them. they have showed they will when rates were rock bottom.

Nothing unusual considering affordability in the market. Normal folks can’t move, or see how it’s dumb to.

Interest rates will be coming down. Prices don't crash when rates go down. Follow the data, not the fear factory.

Was this video mistitled?

The common people are not overpaying for homes, big investors are selling homes, and small mom and pop investors aren’t making money on homes, that leaves top earners and foreigns investors. No one in their right mind is buying in this market, and when interest rates come down, the only people buying homes IF prices go up will be those listing their homes to upsize/downsize. Get real folks, save your cash and hold on for the ride, the data comes in after the market reports. This is not forward outlook information….

I've seen people list their home for WAY over asking. They then implement a price drop. Subsequent sales are falling under the going rate for homes in my area. So, a steady price with no increase. A stagnant price. What is interesting is the incoming data. Will this price stagnation break to the high or low? By my dumb math. It will go lower during the 3rd and 4th quarter. Next year will ne interesting