This is quite a treat. Chris is one of my favorite analysts - I used to look forward to his Greed & Fear report every Thursday before I left the buy-side. This interview is a must watch and deserves to have exponentially higher views.

Taiwan is only a diplomatic handle in AP area to suppress and slow China, never a strategic for US own defense, because China has already many ways to exert threats with long distance guided missiles and other high technology weaponeries to hurt US without Taiwan. In plain language, Taiwam is only a sucker and pawn to US in terms of foreign policies and national defense, drain the money and dump.

china is there for thousands of year. US is a dying country. if US wanna survive, learn from china not fight

Usa will have civil war in 10-20 year later. Taxas, Cali, Hawaii...will leave separate become new countries

Us world destabalisation and war. Yet it rots from the inside out

China main objective is to trade, but at the same time, they combine it with local development, especially infrastructure and skills development. Military and political of the country is respected and not interfered. That's why they're trusted and welcomed by most developing countries. These are the traits the West lack, plus Chinese don't have the means to plunder the developing countries.😂

Dalio looks so stressed out when he talks about this cuz he knows it's the US doing most of the provocations 🤣

US wants war, stop pretending otherwise.

Dalio glosses over everything between the British Opium Wars in the 1840s and Japan's takeover of much of China. Japan was able to do so because of what the British and then the Eight Nation Army, comprised of European powers, did to China over decades. China was already weakened and partially colonized, like the rest of Asia, when the Japanese marched in and colonized not just China but most of Asia.

Why will they be in conflict? Dalio actually offers a clue, a history lesson in the Opium Wars: Britain wanted everything from China, but had nothing to sell to China. Today, the US wants so much from China, but has little to sell back. China makes everything the world wants, while the US makes comparatively little. Indeed, China is responsible for over one-third of the world's manufacturing output.

Sounds like a simple solution: The US gets the f out of Taiwan. Let China and Taiwan work it out themselves. Hell, China is quite prepared to let Taiwan have its own way of living, government, travel, and all that, as long as they declare unification. It's almost a superficial thing but it's ultra important if you know anything about the history of China since the founding of the Han Dynasty, and how you cannot have two "Chinese" nations. The legitimacy of the government does not allow that. China is not like Europe, you cannot have a fracture state. Yugoslavia was a prime example of how disunity brings. The only reason if the world comes to an end is because the US kept using its hegemonic power to screw with others. You might get away with Iran and the Middle East and Central America and Africa, even former Soviet Union, but this one won't work with present day China. The US and our fking foreign policies and CIA will be the death of us all.

The handful of US hardcore allies and most of the west might still follow the US but almost the rest of the world won't. That is the true reality. Even then, most of the handful that follow the US is out of fear not to intimidated the US directly, not trust nor sincere.

Distinguished China historian Ray Daily 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

According to Micheal Hudson we have a conflict between the rent seekers and the state planners.

As I searched through Google I found that in 2010 the US Army had 562 tsd soldiers but in 2022 it had only 462 tsd soldiers. They reduced the US army by 100 thd soldiers. It's strange that the US is shrinking its power but agressivness of political rhetoric increased. It seems the US as it becomes less powerful militarily becames more agressive politically. I wonder if this strong talk will replace real power completly in near future and the US will become a paper tiger.

THE TURE

The China/Taiwan dispute is not the US business.

Ray dalio is extremely wrong when he tells you that the red lines will not be crossed. Oh they will be crossed.

I HOPE YOU LIKE FALLOUT 4 ☢️

God has global confederation

And yet others say most of the non-metropolitan areas survive at poverty levels....

I'm a Hawaiian and there are many of us who want to secede from the US. China should give us military aid to do so.

Time date

Well, that was very clear. If he had the time Ray could serve in Kamala's cabinet.

China supported German reunification, why the west cant support China Taiwan peaceful reunification? All the nonsense about democracy (see Afghanistan), and only Taiwan people can decide (what about the 1.4b chinese sovereign decision rights?). Stop the provocation like Pelosi visit, Green berets in Kinmen island 15km from China, selling more arms to Taiwan, that is not the right behaviour as per One China Policy. The world dont need WW3. Blessed are the Peacemakers.

for goodness sake.. there's no competition or verses.. China already won since way back in 2008 when they bail you out by buying up trillion of your garbage debt bond.. China is a 5000 year old civilization with 1:4 billion people.. whilst the US is a 248 year old with 345 million soul.. living a fantasy on borrowed fantasised GDP.. China is real dude.. and your are an empire of lie..

Go before America, thousands of years to understand history. The empires were there, countries were there. Why a reductionist approach to history, just to prove one narrative.

"And then, come the opium war....." 😡 Come on. Be honest. Tell the real story. Just like an ordinary drug dealer, the British brought opium from their colonial British India to China , so they got the Chinese hooked on to opium and became junkies.

The Hegemonic US demands American First and World Domination under the American rule-based international order. Whereas, China insists on Mutual Respect Mutual Benefits, and non-interference with each other's internal affairs. Obviously, the gap is too wide to bridge over until and unless a new world power equilibrium architecture is firmly established which will probably be at the end of this decade or the next. In the meantime, the world can expect a tumultuous period of uncertainty and danger

Its rotten corrupt world order favour the west at the expense of the world , this so called world order nust be abolished totally just look st its ignorant arrogant body language , disgusting .

1. It was Richard Nixon, not Henry Kissinger, who did the heavy lifting and took the political risks required to bring about the rapprochement with China. This fact is very well documented by many people. You need to give Nixon his due on this. This is not to say that Mr. Kissinger’s role was not important or inconsequential-Kissinger certainly played an important role in normalizing relations with China. But China was Nixon’s project and he deserves to be given the lion’s share of the credit for it. 2. Ineluctable economic and demographic forces are going to eventually bring Taiwan under PRC sovereignty and this cannot be stopped. China wants to take Taiwan intact and understands that time is on its side. For that reason, China will not initiate hostilities against Taiwan unless it is forced to do so by the United States. If a war over Taiwan starts, it will be initiated by the United States, not China. 3. The island of Taiwan was previously colonized by the Dutch and then the Portuguese before the Chinese emperor eventually asserted sovereignty over it. That is how Taiwan came to be known by its Portuguese name of “Formosa.” Mr. Dalio failed to mention this history. 4. Multiple war games about a war between the US and China over Taiwan have been run by the RAND Corporation, a US Department of Defense think tank. In each and every such simulation, China was the decisive winner. It is noteworthy that China enjoys tremendous home field advantage in any such conflict because the island of Taiwan is only 90 miles off the Chinese mainland whereas it is 7,000 miles from the US West Coast. 5. According to Nixon biographer Richard Reeves, Nixon thought that the national interests of China and of the US were conflicting and irreconcilable and that war between the two for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region was inevitable and that China would ultimately prevail in such a conflict.

Well...that is about as wrong as you can get....it is quite obvious right now that the US is winning and China is losing. If fact...China is in shambles...and it is goin to get worse. A lot worse. Ray is just trying to protect his Chinese investments.

For Americans to understand Taiwan is very simple. Imagine at the end of US' civil war the South ran to Hawaii and stayed there and ruled there as the official government with its own laws, elections, currency, military and foreign policy but never joined the UN... So is it a separate country?

All said and done, if there is ever a war between China and US, it will be US as the aggressor and trying to fight China in China territory. Wait. Not so fast. Will China allow US to do just that? Dont think so. This time, it will be a war fought on China mainland but also US mainland. China will fight back to her last man and use every weapons including nuclear to do just that. As for Taiwan, China strategy is maintain current status quo as long as Taiwan does not declare independent. China can afford to wait using time as a conciliatory tool for peaceful reunification. But US and the West do not want to see this happening. A peaceful East Asia is not good for US especially its military industrial complex.

The current situation causes me to think of a farmyard with China as the farmers wife feeding the chickens, some of which are gathering around the farmers wife, while others (the west) are running around scared and not knowing what to do next.

15/19 great power transition ended in war. What about the 20th?

Ray missed out a minor detail: the Chinese didn't want anything from the British. The British started selling opium to the Chinese, as that was the only thing that they could sell to the Chinese. Many Chinese become addicted. The Qing dynasty (the Chinese government at that time), banned all opium import from the British. The British used this as an excuse and waged war against the Chinese, and won. As a result, the British gained territories (Hong Kong), with a lot of monetary compensation, successfully forced opium onto the Chinese and made a tons of profits out of the opium trades....

Yikes. These people are so detached from the reality of their average user. Delight and magic aren't values people expect from the apps they use. They're stuck in the realm of "I'm talking to investors and not customers" and it's embarrassing.

Incredible! This has got to be my favorite podcast of all times. Michael's entrepreneurial journey and principles of building is not only remarkable but very refreshing. He did not fall into the trap of what he alluded to as the "Silicon Valley Olympics :)! I can personally relate to this story as it has a striking similarity to my journey. Besides being an avid Strava user, it has also been singularly influential in my current passion project. The story of Strava is the Ethos for our company. Thanks for sharing this spectacular story and success.

Love the content man keep it up!

I love this lady. Dambisa’s depth of intelligence and articulation is really impressive ❤

But how is AI going to generate a return on investment to the end-user of these devices? Supply created on the presumption of enormous demand based on the presumption of enormous utility creating vast profit? Sounds very speculative.

what a clown

I am so glad I caught this heartwarming interview. It was delightful. It tells me what I need to know about your podcast and Mr. Lewis. Thanks. I know now that I will read the book~!! 50:34 {"Alameda, his money, no harm done. Right?"} No, not right. Because Alameda "borrowed" money with faux collateral to back it up~! Right? ha ha. 53:25 I detect sincere caring emotions here from Lewis.

41:02 Ok, but was he just as reckless with his own money? Perhaps if that fact in the same time frame [between when he 'could have' segregated other people's money out and the time he put them in great jeopardy and then immediately after] were delineated we'd have a sharper analysis. 41:11 "created circumstances for the fraud and circumstances forced them into it" ~ that sounds about right or the best explanation.

31:18 "I put $2,000 FTX US"... including Credit Card (so I'm still a creditor "but it's $2,000" the credit card; I never used it); "I put half of it, I bought some Ethereum I bought some Bit Coin to see if I could do," ..."and I was able to buy Swiss Franc." [huh? with the/what leftovers?] This guy can't add up his own $$ or tell you exactly how much he had "invested" in FTX.

First

Merkel killed any and all hope of the euro being anything other than just war tokens, the war-owe, more like.

He's not wrong. I hate physical shopping. Internet all the way.

IDIOTIC facile “analysis” which is not even internally consistent. He lists out members of the magnificent seven and then says “You can’t have the same valuation on a company manufacturing physical products” What were the companies he listed ? NVidia, Apple, Microsoft. Of the three that he mentioned BOTH Apple and NVidia’s primary business IS the manufacturing of physical products! Yes, they layer software on top of that, but the core products are physical hardware devices. What is Tesla’s play? ... Well, in addition to auto manufacturing, they obviously also have Tesla Energy solutions (energy storage (battery storage) and energy production (solar)) and the Charging infrastructure (the supercharger network). But if his complaint is that the auto-manufacturing side of the business is solely a physical only business, he is again, acting the fool. Not only do the Tesla products have a far higher software content than the legacy manufacturers - the whole darn car is a computer on wheels FFS, but Tesla’s big play is obviously in full-self-driving. If they can crack that, which obviously the market is giving Tesla some credit for (at least some investors have expectation they WILL solve self driving) then Tesla obviously can capture software like subscription revenues etc. So, while this guy *sounds* coherent, his actual argument is flimsy at best. Finally, Tesla is of course being given credit for the expectation that eventually the entire auto market will go fully EV based, and Tesla will be one of the dominant players. Yes, there’s been a slow down in the expansion of the EV market, which all EV manufacturers including Tesla have been hit with, but I’d argue it’s flat out foolish to think that this is anything but a temporary hiccup. Which also is the case re. Tesla not having “any new models”. It will not be long before Tesla DOES come out with new models, at which point you can expect another rapid expansion of sales - similar to what happened when the Y and the 3 were introduced. Really, all what he said about the legacy manufacturers coming out with new models is yet more of the FUD we’ve been hearing for years (*including from this fool himself*) that the legacy players would “kill” tesla. Instead what has happened is the legacy manufacturers have shown themselves completely incapable of *PROFITABLY* manufacturing an EV which can directly compete with Tesla. To the point that, with the losses they have incurred, the legacy manufacturers have all revised their plans and are pushing back their investments into EVs. Something which they will surely end up regretting a couple of years down the line.