10 Day Trend 01/05/2024 - Weak jet and flabby lows

10 Day Trend 01/05/2024 - Weak jet and flabby lows - Met Office Weather Forecast

Рет қаралды 45,120

Ай бұрын

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 01/05/2024
A feeble jet stream makes for slow moving weather patterns and a mixed forecast. The bank holiday weekend looks particularly tricky before higher pressure may move in next week.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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Пікірлер: 45

@neilporter3286 Ай бұрын

Typically British weather for a Bank Holiday - mixed and hard to predict!

@simonh870 Ай бұрын

What a surprise. I hate the UK climate most of the time.

@MrPhillipgraham Ай бұрын

I think we just have to embrace and enjoy the rain, and then when the sun comes out that's a bonus! 😅

@matthewclatworthy3597 Ай бұрын

As always, thanks Alex. Question for you, compared to, say, 20 years ago how much more accurate (or confidence in) has a 10 day forecast become?

@matthughes6474 Ай бұрын

Not a complete answer but I was told that, at the time of the Fastnet Storm in 1979, the confidence in the two day forecast was about the same as for the seven day forecast now. Firstly, that was from a journalist and, secondly, development is not linear, but if it is true then it's a 350% improvement in 45 years. So the last ten years would see about an 80% improvement. That's a very unscientific analysis 🙂

@edwardsp1916 Ай бұрын

If I was a weather forecaster in the UK, these are the 3 lines I would use in Summer @07:33

@hallstewart Ай бұрын

Makes sense, Spring is always messy. I think we forget we are geographically stuck out in the Atlantic ocean storm conveyor belt most of the time.

@ruperthiggins7358 Ай бұрын

Thanks once again Alex!

@philipmurphy2 Ай бұрын

10 day trend, even the computers don't agree with each other on UK weather.

@viviennehamilton4127 Ай бұрын

Today in the East Midlands it was very misty until about 9.30am then it was cloudy until 12 noon then sunny and warm until 1.30 then dark clouds then sunny and warm from about 4pm 🙈 what kind of nonsense is that for May Day 🤬🤬🤬

@SamsVlogstrainsmore Ай бұрын

Thanks for the detailed forecast Alex

@chrisa9043 Ай бұрын

10 day out look should be interesting.

@matthewtrow5698 Ай бұрын

Had to rebook a trip to Skomer island tomorrow due to having a bad cold, certainly looks like it may have been a fortuitous outcome. South West Wales is a total washout tomorrow! This 10 day trend sadly (and obviously) doesn't cover the South West Wales forecast for _next_ Thursday (rebooked for then), but I'm working on the theory it couldn't get much worse ... could it? 😬

@markrichards7164 Ай бұрын

I don’t make plans ahead these days. Hope to have a couple of days away next week for a tandem skydive.

@georgejohnstone4235 Ай бұрын

Thanks

@Denathorn Ай бұрын

I knew as soon as I watched this that the North-East of England would be generally be taped off from the nice high temperatures... Seems to be always the case... For the last YEAR nearly! :D

@Arya-cf7vu Ай бұрын

Nice weather from 2nd week of May? I'll believe it when I see it. Weather in South east this year, so far has been pants and boring😢

@machandler70 Ай бұрын

So, the southwest has been brutalised with a powerful south shifted jet over the last 6 months and now gets done by a flabby, weak and meandering May jet. Will it ever end?!

@paulbrum6690 Ай бұрын

Ai seems to be a big thing at the moment, does Ai play any part in the weather models that you use? - love watching the Deep Dives and 10 Day Trend, Thank you to everyone involved at the Met Office. 👍😁👏

@cronavirus_ragnareich Ай бұрын

Weak, flabby, low, low confidence and unpredictable. Sounds like he's talking about my brain.

@elaineambrose7413 Ай бұрын

Oh well if it’s nice it’s an added bonus if not there’s plenty of films on the fire stick 😂

@yesmate78 Ай бұрын

So usual average weather then.

@orbitspec9199 Ай бұрын

Met office's uncertainty principle.

@soton5teve Ай бұрын

Is the title a weather report?, or have you hacked my recent physical exam.

@markrichards7164 Ай бұрын

How often do these 10 trends turn out to be correct

@ruperthiggins7358 Ай бұрын

I don't think 'correct' is the right category for these 10-day forecasts in the same way it might be for a 24-hour forecast. As Alex said, every forecast has a probability attached to it, which gives the likelihood of the trend (or not).

@Mykst Ай бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

@marycamilleri447 Ай бұрын

Yeah but you are dealing with the environment

@terencemeikle534 Ай бұрын

Yay. The Dalmatian plot is back! ⚫️ ⚫️ ⚫️

@johnadams6771 Ай бұрын

We hear all the time about the various computer models and their outputs, but does anybody actually do a manual forecast these days, or at least look at the computer outputs and make manual modifications?

@huntersawyer1373 Ай бұрын

The jet stream is supposed to be a stream. That's not a stream.... It's like gymnast with ribbons. It's all over the place. Climate collapse incoming.

@charlieh2492 Ай бұрын

Truth is you haven't got a clue, computer says ?

@Mykst Ай бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

@TrancetasticWilza Ай бұрын

Let me guess... look out the window?

@jimdowney91 Ай бұрын

I love the way people think forecasting is easy especially as the UK and Ireland are Islands in the Atlantic Ocean..

@Smiffy-72 Ай бұрын

More of a clue than you I would of thought 😊

@garycwikla6385 Ай бұрын

Genius. You spent 11 minutes telling us absolutely nothing.

@Mykst Ай бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

@vv7611 Ай бұрын

Harsh

@TheFlyingHaggis Ай бұрын

It's not their fault that spring has been miserable.

@davewright9313 Ай бұрын

I've travelled around the world and Alex is one of the best forecasters there is.

@garycwikla6385 Ай бұрын

@@davewright9313 I’m not knocking the presenter, I’m just saying that it was long winded (pardon the pun) to give us no information.

@Brenda1235. Ай бұрын

Gibberish 🙄

@Mykst Ай бұрын

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.