lmao I was thinking the same, that card is a 4-of, it's like the unofficial 4th piece of Vecna

It took me a bit to notice it, i had to pause to read it, but as soon as i saw "enter four values" i was like "wait this is the hypergeo calculator isn't it"

Lol, indeed.

@@MTGGoldfish Also, isn't Delina going essentially endlessly when it gets going? like, you can'ät choose to stop it, none of the effects are "may", so technically the combo just goes on untill it breaks mtgaor it somehow impossibly fails..

@@Spinefist They errata'd it to say that "You may roll again" when they noticed this.

Just wait until this week's Commander Clash ;)

Lol

After they ban Chatterstorm I might bring it back (or maybe I should bring it back to play Chatterstorm before they can it).

No point in pauper series right now IMO. A good 2/3rds of the games would be against either Chatterstorm or Affinity.

@@bobzour According to MTGG's metagame %ages about 1/3 of the games would be against Chatterstorm or Affinity.

This was recorded before Yusri luck :)

😂😂😂

@@MTGGoldfish this is exactly the problem I have with strong random effects. card games are already random, stacking more random effects on it (like hearthstone) just creates feelbad moments.

@@felipepainkiller5114 It get's really swingy anyways. It's kinda hard to have a strategy against random stuff even when you do the math. Like sure, Seth knew the chances of "opponent goes infinite" but he couldn't really do much about it.

@@felipepainkiller5114 But if it's already random, what does extra randomness really matter? If people wanted a game of pure skill, they'd play chess instead. It's no different to an ability saying "If you draw Card-Y and Card-Z out of 48 cards next, you may pay X where X is those cards' costs, and if you do, you win", and that's what all games ultimately boil down to anyway.

"brass ovaries" oh my god lol

It's also not a just remote "14%" chance if you give them multiple attempts. WIth two combat steps of attacking with they combo, their odds were better than 1 in 4 that they would go infinite (or close enough) at least once.

Be careful. This is, by definition, gambler's fallacy.

@@woolsyzygy No, it's really not. The gambler's fallacy is about decisions making in the moment, not about analyzing the overall likelihood of a sequence of events. Taken to the extreme, if Seth let things go on for 49 turns in a row and the opponent kept missing, and it would clearly be bullshit to complain that OP "got lucky" on the 50th final attempt. Just because that final attempt they made was a 14% shot and was unlikely in isolation, doesn't mean they had unusually good luck, because the overall game played had overwhelming odds the dice would go infinite at some point. They would have had many, many opportunities to "get lucky", and so overall would actually be considered quite "bad luck". If you played out the same game in the video 100 times, and all that changed was the dice, you'd expect that Seth would win ~75 of those games. So OP won due to the not extremely unlikely 1 in 4 odds, rather than the somewhat more objectionable 14%.

Ha, yeah! A fan who owns a shirt business made it for me because they heard me talking about wanting one during a stream. It's exactly this calculator, but in shirt form stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

Thanks!

You can play dracolich from the graveyard so it makes more sense to get back eyetwitch lol

I feel like you’ve gotta have some kind of protection for it just getting bounced.

Team Pennant

Is shadow spear standard?

I haven't built a Jelly deck yet, but it seems like it could be interesting. Ranger Class is super strong and it does seem like good support for Jelly.

when I made it, it was like the third deck I faced

I see it once and a while, but not very often.

My question is why did he play Book of Vile Darkness turn three instead of the Hand of Vecna? Valentin also has lifelink, so he could have equipped and gained back the life lost from equipping.

The problem is that you need all three so you still have to draw all the pieces. Also, Oswald can only find another piece if you draw the eye since his ability tutors CMC+1 and not CMC+1 or less. Probably better to go with search for glory instead if you want to tutor since it can find any missing piece.

I've found that being aggressive with Hand of Vecna is really helpful for the deck.

@@MTGGoldfish hand is so good with scourge of the skyclaves aswell.

I think you could build it that way, although I think that Hand of Vecna is the most individually powerful Vecna piece, so I really like the aggro plan of being able to stick it on an evasive lifelinker and win in just a couple of attacks.

Oh god, the mana.

@@MTGGoldfish lol I can only imagine running a copy of world tree. Otherwise well, good luck!

I think what you're missing is the cumulative probability aspect. You're right that you have reasonably high odds of winning any individual roll. The math I have is that it's 51% with one Pixie Guide, 65% with two Pixie Guides, 75% with three Pixie Guides. Once you get to 6 Pixie Guides you're over 90% to hit and with 10 or more you're over 98%. The problem is that there's also a chance of failing at any of those rolls. All of these individual chances of failure add up, so overall starting with a single Pixie Guide you'll go functionally infinite 14.1% of the time. If you can get a few Pixie Guides or Barbarian Classes on the battlefield first the odds increase a lot, because the highest chance of failure comes during the few few rolls when you don't have that many dice.

A unique pronunciation I guess :)

don't forgot how he slapped like 4 extra letters into "Iymrith"

@@keep7smiling ismaryth

Yeah, you are probably right. Cleanest answer to Goldspan Dragon available, and Goldspan is everywhere.

Or "The Book of Vile Darkness" from the old DnD item "The Book of Vile Darkness.

Agreed! I've really been liking Standard without Eldraine and Ikoria a lot! I have high hopes that Standard is going to be super sweet once rotation officially happens.

Except for Goldspan Dragon

14% to win enough rolls in a row that you win the game.

Way more than 87 dice were rolled though... Arena only shows four rolls when more than four dice are rolled at once, one of which appears to always be the best one (IDK how the others are selected). Including on and off screen 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 ... + 27 dice were rolled in that last attack. That's a total of 29 X 13 = 377 dice.

Also, to what end? What does WotC gain by rigging the dice so some rando beats Saffron Olive?

@@adamgalloy9371 correct. that is why I specifically referred to *visible* rolls. we have no way to account for the ones the software doesn't show. but in a sense, it doesn't matter since it doesn't change the conclusion.

@@adamgalloy9371 I doubt there is anything unique about Seth's match in particular. I suspect the dice are weighted towards 19s and 20s for *everyone* since WotC feels it will up the "fun factor" of the game.

@@earther66 I suppose that reasoning for why WotC might weigh the dice makes some sense. We know they do smooth hands in Bo1 so I can't say the idea is too far out there. I think I'd just need some more convincing evidence than this. How are you accounting for the fact that the highest roll will always show up in the four shown? That will greatly skew the distribution towards the higher end. Based on the number 87 you gave you seem to be ignoring some dice since by my math there were 2 + 3 + 4*24 = 102 rolls visible on the combo turn. I got this number since the first attack had two rolls and the last attack had 27 rolls so there were a total of 26 attacks, 24 of which had four visible rolls. Is there some sort of attempt to account for this bias by ignoring certain rolls? Another concern I have is that you specifically chose an example of a run that ran high. Which adds sampling bias to your test since you are ignoring other runs you might have seen that ran "normally". In order to be convinced, I'd like to see the math done on randomly selected games. I do like some good math though and I appreciate seeing someone doing this :)

Oh god, that sounds pretty insane.

It's a hypergeometic calculator. It looks just like the one here stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

As an aside, being able to think through the math like this is one of the reasons I kinda hate the Arena rope. I get that it's necessary, but there was no way I could've worked through this in a live game, especially with the timer ticking down at me. Just makes me miss paper a little more. Can't wait for my store to open back up!