I received shares of WBD stock when it split off in April, 2022, from AT&T, @ $23. a share! Within a few days, it went up to $27. a share, but quickly starting dropping! On 04/19/22, I sold my shares @ $23.72 a share! Today, 10/02/22, they are a little over $11! I ask you, how could a company with as successful a track record as Warner Bros., have gotten into such financial difficulty? If Jack Warner were alive, he'd be 'cleaning house' at Headquarter's!
@ThijsNijenhuis Жыл бұрын
I don't believe they are in financial trouble. The stock has sold off, but that is something else. The market is brutal to all companies with high levels of debt and newly listed companies. Perfect combination for a brutal sell-off.
@toshi7220 Жыл бұрын
Also bought WBD under 12.50 last week.
@rongendron8705 Жыл бұрын
Remember, last April, it was over $27. a share! (I sold it @ $23.72 on 04/19) It also doesn't pay a dividend, to wait!
@TidusVen Жыл бұрын
Great video Thijs. I liked the deptness of your analysis on WBD. It's a big bet but the management and company are comitted to success. Even before the merger Warner Bros was making 2B in cashflow (out of 40ish in Revenue, see AT&T 10k), so I believe they might pull this debt out. Thanks once again and keep up the good work!
@ThijsNijenhuis Жыл бұрын
My pleasure Fabio! Agreed. I do believe they will be able to pull this one off.
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
The only question I have tho is when doing a dcf model, shouldn't one take the debt into consideration? The interest rate on the debt will be like 2bn a year. If fcf will end up being 5 (lets be conservative) a year then 2 will go towards interest and then they wanna pay down some bm too.. how does this get to 19% returns?
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
Great video Thijs, and very nice that you did this video since we wanted it!
@niclin22 Жыл бұрын
Super interesting analysis! Definitely a stock to look out for
@TomasVarnik Жыл бұрын
Excellent analysis, I really like your content
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
I wanna see the bear case too now!
@acunha3105 Жыл бұрын
Also long on this one. That EPS of 10 (!!!) in 4 years, I think it's too optimistic, but assuming analysts are 50% off, and, a very conservative multiple of 10, it's already a 4 or 5x. It's a very compelling risk-reward bet. You should look out kyndril, a IBM spin-off that is away oversold.
@tripleal5 Жыл бұрын
If you consider they have 2B of restructuring cost this year and possibly 3B of FCF, she should be Able to do at least 5B per year, just what they need to pay almost all the 15b due from 23-25
@golafs Жыл бұрын
have also been buying little bit lately
@babyprince84uk Жыл бұрын
Hmmm still not motivated to buy them share. Analysts are not always reasonable. If they are far from the real number, then... Too much debt. Not for me. It looks like the management are making a lot of promise. No track record history. Thanks for the video :)
@voimakyykky3980 Жыл бұрын
I know the streaming is just a piece of the business and there are many other factors to consider while investing in WBD. However HBO Max lauched in my country this year and I'm actually really surprised how much great content there is. Previously we used Netflix and there was just too little good content, had to take some Amazon Prime on the side and still there was a struggle to find decent stuff to watch. Now we just use HBO Max. Disney+ we have never even tries since we have no interest in their content, which seems to be mostly crappy reboots and superhero stuff.
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
I'm long WBD but think Netflix always has been way better than HBO. Of course after a while you have seen most series and shifting is always nice.
@ziaulislam87 Жыл бұрын
Hands down HBO has greatest quality of content closely followed by Disney with Netflix at third..however Netflix has better international content which HBO Disney don't at this time.
@ziaulislam87 Жыл бұрын
@@maxjames00077 Netflix didn't develop a lot of branded content apart from stranger things & few things everything else gets cancelled after 1 season. Hence why I cancelled Netflix and went to HBO+ Disney
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
@@ziaulislam87 oh content owned wise yeah sure but as a consumer I don't care who owns the content tho. Netflix offers to many more movies and series in my country. Its a better deal to me.
@DM-bn6bf Жыл бұрын
What country?
@babyprince84uk Жыл бұрын
In my case, my strategy will be to wait and see. I love your videos a ton Thanks!
@tylerbaisden1308 Жыл бұрын
One of my favorites
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
Btw, is the return from the DCF with or without paying off debt? a huge part of their FCF would go to debt no?
@miroslav1845 Жыл бұрын
I'm already way too overweight on this one and I hesitate to buy more but I still do every few months for much less than before. 50% down is tough to hold but fundamentals are not getting worse. Netflix is just a slave to it's own business model and at the time when I was buying wbd (disca) , Netflix valuation was extremely rich. Hope Zaslav's cleaning won't influence new content and talented people already in the company
@lionels839 Жыл бұрын
NEW IDEAS: Winnebago Industries (motorhomes manufacturer, cap=1.8B, 15% of Norbert Lou’s portfolio), Builders FirstSource (supplier of building products, cap=9.5B, 10% of Greg Alexander’s portfolio) and Qorvo (radio frequency and power technologies to mobile, infrastructure, the IoT, defense/aerospace and power management markets, cap=9.4B, 10% of Seth Klarman portfolio). All have pretty good PE, PB, ROE and operating margins! What is your opinion on them?
@michaelkauffman5399 Жыл бұрын
Great video Thijs. Appreciate all your hard work. Beyond the debt, I'm also concerned about share dilution. In that press release, WBD announced their total shares outstanding went from 589 million to around 2.29 billion. That seems to be extreme dilution. Do you think, given WBD's low price, they will continue to dilute in order to raise the necessary funds to pay the debt? How should we think about the risk of dilution when it comes to seeking a proper valuation? Thank you
@ThijsNijenhuis Жыл бұрын
The dilution is due to the merger, so it's not 'real' dilution. I really do appreciate the support! Cheers!
@ameyavarma8568 Жыл бұрын
@@ThijsNijenhuis Then would you consider the currently fire-sale esque prices to be because of peopla actually undervaluing the buisness or simply just due to dilution
@dialogsemiconductor2039 Жыл бұрын
One of the hardest debt burden in the stock market. This is to much for me.
@Nik-up5kg Жыл бұрын
I am afraid of these companies . Very fierce competition. Price should be very very appealing. What do you think of paramount ? Better balance sheet
@crohmer Жыл бұрын
Did you watch the video? There’s more than just streaming
@ferhatti78 Жыл бұрын
First of all i would not buy in at the moment we will see price to drop under 12 maybe 10. Thats the time to buy
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
I hope it gets there too
@ferhatti78 Жыл бұрын
@@maxjames00077 it will, be patient, next 3 months stocks will drop
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
@@ferhatti78 you can't know this😊
@ferhatti78 Жыл бұрын
@@maxjames00077 Inflation will eat eanrings, q3 and q4 will be a bloothbad. We are in the beginning of stock market crash. Investors who doesn't have any patiente will lose. Just buy in small portions when the stock falls more than 6% you buy 8% of your desired amount of stocks.
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
@@ferhatti78 im 80% cash but we will see mate i hope u r right
@danielng3043 Жыл бұрын
Been hestitating. The debt is really scary.
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
Now that you know its fixed, should be less scary
@manos6969 Жыл бұрын
Definitively asymetric reward to risk! I initially bought "disca" at 24 and now doubled down at 13! will add more if it drops! Lets gooooooooooo!
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
How did this work btw. If you owned discovery before the merger happened? Did u get shares in WBD?
@manos6969 Жыл бұрын
@@maxjames00077 yes the broker automatically converted the shares. Didn't do anything.
@maxjames00077 Жыл бұрын
@@manos6969 oh nice! How many did u get? 1 for 1?
@miroslav1845 Жыл бұрын
@@maxjames00077 yes exactly, if you owned some at&t you would get XY shares of WBD for each at&t