Ambev NYSE: ABEV Stock Offers 3X Potential (Stock To Buy)

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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Күн бұрын

Ambev Stock, NYSE: ABEV, offers an interesting risk and reward situation as the business keeps producing cash flows while the whole country sentiment is ugly.
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0:00 ABEV Stock
0:26 Business
6:22 Financials
7:54 Risk And Reward

Пікірлер: 194

@MrRubigno81 18 күн бұрын

Ambev is one of my favourite: great brands, incredible market share in its markets, 5 years ROIC of 16.64%, 5 years net margin of 19%, positive cash position, the safest dividend... now at a discount (6.98 ev/ebitda compared to a 5ys average of 10.68). Big BUY in my opinion.

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing!

@dennismozart5134 20 күн бұрын

ABEV doesn’t deliver the growth promised in over 10 years in Brazil. As a Brazilian, the stock is overpriced for what it delivers. It also faces constant year to year competition to other brands such as Heineken locally there and it struggles to keep market share in there because of being too big it moves too slow… Also, this dividend has never been so high! For ABEV standard historically the yield is between 2.5%-4% and even that is very volatile as dividends in Brazil are not every quarter and predictable like here in the US. The stock is cheap for US standards, but once you go to actual BRL it’s not that cheap and the historical data doesn’t back that analysis up… there might be upside there in BRL, but in dollar with the currency devaluation it may not have that much.

@dennismozart5134 20 күн бұрын

Not only that… I think there’s a lot of tax subsidies that it takes advantages of in there too… as soon as those are removed you’d could expect some impact on profitability as well… not that it will become not profitable, just less than it is today and that would/could hit hard the stock price…

@k4ir0s 20 күн бұрын

Thanks for the insights! For me, the thing that's holding me back is the inconsistent dividend yield, and it's 1 time per year. I can see myself looking at it again once US interest rates go down and undervalued stocks go up. But right now, there's plenty of deep value non-tech choices available in the US market.

@bolle666 19 күн бұрын

ABEV is not for me. Analyst Scorecard on FG says the guidance is bad and the analysts are almost always wrong.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@bluetilenedrummer 15 күн бұрын

Sven, maybe a video on Pernod Riccard? Also good diversification outside US

@fpivi 19 күн бұрын

I'm a Brazilian securities analyst. ABEV looks cheap from an outside perspective, but there's a lot of companies on Brazilian market that are WAY less expensive. We are talking about good utilities companies or great big Brazilian banks with a PE lower than 5 and negotiating under book value (for example: BBAS3, CSMG3, SAPR3, TRPL4, CLSC3, RANI3, PETR4, GOAU4...) There's also crazy opportunities in smallcaps. In this scenario, why anyone would buy a riskier stock like ABEV with way higher multiples?

@mrhulls 19 күн бұрын

I wouldn't analize a bank with pe but returning to your comments. Analying small caps from a foreing country is very difficult. I guess you have a big edge over foreing investors.

@Rrroohh 19 күн бұрын

I like the companies you mentioned, but how you consider that Ambev (which generates tons of cash and sells worldwide) is riskier than GOAU4 which does not do good result and will continue to face chinese cheap steel (especially with chinese banking system getting worse at the moment) ? (not even mentioning PETR4 and political interferences)

@fpivi 19 күн бұрын

@@mrhulls yes, this is my local market, and we have a say here that "Brazil is not for amateurs". Things are "complicated". But Brazilian banks are the most profitable in the world (Itaú, Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, Santander Brasil). Here it makes a lot of sense to look at the PE and Price/book ratios, even at banks. Some Brazilian stocks listed in the US that are great companies at fair prices: PBR, GGB, CIG, BDORY... I like ABEV, but not at these prices

@fpivi 19 күн бұрын

@@Rrroohh It's just margin of safety. Gerdau and Petrobras are just very cheap, so the risk becomes low buying at current prices.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@HenningYT 20 күн бұрын

I already initiated a position last week. Thank you for the video.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@fabioingrosso3008 20 күн бұрын

Hi Sven. Thanks for this video I always enjoy and learn a lot from your analysis. since you asked, I suggest three companies. Ticker symbols: O, EPD and EKT! The first two are good dividend stocks, EPD in particular. O has a good business model even if it is Real Estate. EKT looks like a good compounder, not yet recognized by the market, although the dividend is not that attractive. I'm following them all but have not yet invested in any yet. Thanks a lot again, hope to be helpful!

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing!

@marossko1 20 күн бұрын

Hi Sven, great video again! Thank you for sharing your view on this. I was wandering what your thoughts are on Neste Oyj and Match Group. They seem to be pretty undervalued. Just a tip for a next analysis. Take care. Maros

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@maximklimenko1998 20 күн бұрын

Hey Master, what about Chinese utilities like China Water Affairs Group Ltd? Also great value assets?

@markus_bit. 20 күн бұрын

I would also be interested in that. I owned it back in 2021 and made good money.

@IPQ-sj2zs 20 күн бұрын

Debt to equity 122%

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Depends on the government

@deankateman1674 18 күн бұрын

Hey I saw in the past u covered Nutrient, it appears to be going to be in a down part of the cycle again. Could an update video be interesting?

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

I have updated on my research platform, will see if I'll make a vid

@PMCH71 4 күн бұрын

Good day, Sven Staying on the topic of brasilian companies, what is your take on Petrobras?

@kevintan6705 20 күн бұрын

Thanks for the insight Sven! My main concern despite promising balance sheet is that it doesn't really have much of a moat, alcohol business is tough since there is so much competition and ABEV doesn't really hold any competitive advantage over other producers.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@anderson6379 20 күн бұрын

Thanks for covering 🤓😎 I have been looking at it too recently. U have taught us well😁 Another one with a South African link so easy for me to have background. Just like Prosus and Naspers. ABEV and SAB Miller 🙂 Brands I have been familiar with. Thanks for your teachings

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Glad it was helpful!

@davidedeltoro4117 20 күн бұрын

Very interesting company Sven! It looks like a buy in brazilian real terms. Unfortunately it doesn't fit my portofolio due to currency risk. In the years the brazilian real keep depreciating against the dollar and the euro, that's why the ADR performance as been horrible! I'm not smart enought to know if the currency trend will change..

@TheBooban 20 күн бұрын

Make currency risk work for you. USD is very strong now. Which means, you should in fact be buying foreign stocks now to reap a windfall of dividends in the future. I’m not American and bought a ton of US stocks back in the day and so glad I did. But I have to still buy US stocks today because good buys are simply limited in the world. It is Brazilian money though but heck, as long as Brazil doesn’t do an Argentina it’s ok. I bought a little Ambev just now :)

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@simonefiaschi9076 20 күн бұрын

A proposito di valore , il valore che mi producono i minatori di metalli preziosi e’ grande e ne produrranno ancora di piu’ il vero value Investing e’ questo ti arrampichi su gli specchi si sente il rumore sveglia

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@randyromano2854 18 күн бұрын

If beer sales are steady and increasing in Brazil, economic stability and growth must also be happening.

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing

@eddy563 20 күн бұрын

interesting, worth to take a look.. good return on equity

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

It is!

@CraigTaggart 20 күн бұрын

thanks Sven great review as always, seems like a dividend play against U.S. market with limited growth here. Definitely on watch list

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing!

@benjaminwhite2156 20 күн бұрын

Hi Sven one thing I thought u might find interesting is they compete with quilmes in Argentina which has 46% market share there so bit difficult competition for Argentina Altho the geographic diversification doesn’t make it too significant but thought it would be something to add to your research. Thanks for the video👍👍

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@_VlCTOR_ 20 күн бұрын

DEO, ABEV, have crushed. maybe people cut drink budget in this recession

@dodid0 20 күн бұрын

People never cut drink budget for beer. For expensive wine and liquors yes, but for a beer can that cost cents, it doesn´t happen.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@nixielee 19 күн бұрын

Could be something, but I wonder if gen-z is even drinking beer. Youngsters will probably be all in on easy spirits. Pernod Ricard, -35% 1y looks kind of interesting

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@torrontoarts3663 20 күн бұрын

Hello Sven, from a longterm viewer: Thank you a lot for your work and for being a rational pol in these emotional times. If you take subscriber wishes: I would love for you to do an update on alibaba with the competitive situation with PDD and JD Thank you and good night Torro

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for suggesting

@felanterap 19 күн бұрын

Great video, Sven! I'm also a Brazilian, I don't have the stock, but one thing I'll say, it won't stop growing the profits soon because people over here are consuming A LOT of their products. Even though some competition has entered, it's nothing to worry about and I don't think it will be.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@ihakker1416 20 күн бұрын

didn´t expect this to show up here :D not really a well-known high-flying stock. Been holding Ambev for 9months or so already, same investment thesis as you, pretty good value stock with interesting risk/reward. Also a good way to diversify away from the "main" markets (USA/EU and to a lesser degree china)

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing!

@fernandomizobuti 20 күн бұрын

Hi Sven! Ambev is going through a challenge due to the economic crisis in Argentina and the drop in beer consumption in some of its markets, such as Canada. It's an ok company, which hasn't been growing much and should distribute 5/6% of DY, but here in Brasil we have other more interesting ones.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@marinikc8780 20 күн бұрын

i like investing in Brazil etf (EWZ) than in a single stock from a market I don't know too well - 7.4% dividend, plus diversification, good growth prospects for the future! ;)

@tiago.sartor 20 күн бұрын

Brazilian here, EWZ is heavily concentrated in a few commodity companies and banks. If this is your goal then ok, but for me as a brazilian EWZ is a very bad index to invest into.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@AnyangU 19 күн бұрын

You seem to like relatively smaller non-U.S. businesses that seem undervalued with some reason to expect growth, maybe even significant growth? If they do grow, it might be a good chance at significant gains. Of course, no one really knows the future.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Nobody knows

@MrAzorian 19 күн бұрын

Hi Sven, always a great video. Have you looked at the brazilian company Gerdau SA (NYSE:GGB)? Steel maker with strong liquidity, 7% dividend and significant exposure to USA.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Steel cycle is global

@bolle666 20 күн бұрын

Finally a day where it is fun being a value investor!

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

:-)

@Finley-rk8qw 4 күн бұрын

I liked your video! Can you please suggest a good way of starting to invest in cryptocurrency. What do you think? Should we learn from successful traders and copy them rather than taking risks with our own money and getting too emotional?

@Finley-rk8qw 3 күн бұрын

Which signal do you guys trade

@LoganBarnes-nq3ph 3 күн бұрын

Trading has been going well for me. Each day, I enjoy watching videos and reading appreciation posts of trades profit. It brings me joy to see others happy.

@LoganBarnes-nq3ph 3 күн бұрын

The professional is Mrs. Audrey Arlo.

@JustinLowe-sf3cy 3 күн бұрын

Wow, it feel so relaxing to see my broke talked about here, I thought I'm the only one that knows Ms Audrey Arlo,| guess her good works speaks for her now, she has build a good Legacy for herself

@KieranWest-zb8lx 3 күн бұрын

She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm from United States, she's a Licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United States.

@luisalbertobauerlandivar5638 19 күн бұрын

In my country (Bolivia), AMBEV is the dominant force in the beer industry. They’re so big that the they have an unusual supplier power, paying their suppliers in 180 days. No other beer company comes even close to them.

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@sowhat8995 20 күн бұрын

Brazil does not levy withholding tax on dividends, correct? But since this is a US ADR, would US withholding tax be due or does it remain at 0%?

@michaelfishkop779 20 күн бұрын

all ADRs fall under US withholding tax

@frankyfourfingers1382 20 күн бұрын

Good question ... I've yet to figure that one out.

@carlosparra9527 20 күн бұрын

15% Now, since a law change in 2023

@sowhat8995 20 күн бұрын

@@michaelfishkop779 No, this cannot apply in general: In the past, I have paid 15% withholding tax on dividends from a Russian share (plus fee) and 0% on a Colombian share.

@sowhat8995 20 күн бұрын

@@carlosparra9527 This law does not appear to apply to US05968L1026. 🤔

@carlosparra9527 20 күн бұрын

Im ball deeps in Ambev, down like 25%, but keep buying each week.

@efiroozy 20 күн бұрын

Don’t end up castrada 😅

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@jackouille2024 19 күн бұрын

What about Petrobras? A major with massive discount and generous dividends

@ironbooze2937 19 күн бұрын

Dividend isn't safe and the value gap is probably going to stay forever as it acts as a government pet. I bought some when it was close to half it's current price, which was a good deal. But now? Don't know if I would add any.

@jackouille2024 18 күн бұрын

@@ironbooze2937 safe enough for me. Min 4% yield guaranteed at current price if WTI > 40$ and gross debt < 60 G$ (read their div policy). Current yield around 12% with potential upside if extra div. PER of 4, 40% GPM, 30% ROE etc. Keep investing in your SP etf at 1% yield, sucker!

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

No idea, havent analyzed

@tocaciulevente992 20 күн бұрын

Plus500, Cal-maine foods, Adecoagro (Brazil again), etc

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@siggiAg86 20 күн бұрын

will you research this further or perhaps buy it?

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Will see if ill write a report for platform

@silviumanole2103 18 күн бұрын

Sven, good company with steady cash flow and solid MOAT is Virgin Galactic, they are printing money. Doing better than FED.

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

Hahhaaaa

@Itsbestbro 18 күн бұрын

Being a subsidiary of a bigger company that is in major debt reminds me of Vandanta

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Different owners here

@fernandomizobuti 20 күн бұрын

I think you will like Itaú, largest Bank in latin America. NYSE: Itub Other suggestions: ENGIY - utilities, BDORY - Bank, TIMB - Telecom.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@PrintOnDemandWorld 20 күн бұрын

Haidilao Chinese stock . Wide moat in the hot pot market in China. Should have a look at it Sven

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@BG-mw5pt 16 күн бұрын

as a pure financial valuation alone, ABEV is grossly underpriced. even if the price were $4/share, it still has an 80% chance to make you money. but...

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

As you say, but…

@emiliankrajci1172 20 күн бұрын

Hi Sven, could you check also briefly LUV /Southwest airls /stock ? It is also on lower levels and has been hit by covid . Anyway if they will return to pre pandemic profit it can go higher as Disney always there are lot of potential issue as for example they using only boing 737 so they also depends on all boing issues

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Airlines are tough

@SomeGuy-ws5zj 20 күн бұрын

Yeah. I live next to Brazil and Brazil is full of Ambev trucks delivering drinks absolutely everywhere. They sell like crazy and it is also one of the few businesses that works perfectly in a recession. I have the stock since 2022 and a little bit down is my second target.

@adriantimar4290 20 күн бұрын

I live in Italy, own a pizzeria, and the top sold "commercial" beers are always Becks and Leffe

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing!

@JuanBattaglia45 19 күн бұрын

"A bad situation in Argentina". Hearing that from my birth. Regards from Argentina 🤣

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

:-))

@arbitrage-technologies487 19 күн бұрын

i think that its interesting because we will see 3usd for sure one day but the growth story of the stoxk seems compromised. why a stock is loosing value since 2012… i see growth in retained earnings but the real growth wich comes from cash flow from operations show no increases (discount inflation and its worth) i see that stock as a bond.. i learnt the hard way that its better to buy expensive stocks than cheap ones…the only challenge is to not overpay.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@carlosperdomo1517 20 күн бұрын

Ambev is a classic Graham pick right now

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@marcoalbertospadacini3792 20 күн бұрын

Ottimo lavoro Sven ❤

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Grazie

@andreabertagni4955 19 күн бұрын

What do u think about swatch group?

@luigigetsu 18 күн бұрын

Negative free cash flow, stay away...

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

No idea

@Alex-qw7iz 20 күн бұрын

I recently bought Pernod Riccard

@TheKatorosa 19 күн бұрын

Same. Seems like a better company.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@TheKatorosa 14 күн бұрын

@@Value-Investing maybe do an analysis of Pernod Ricard?

@efiroozy 20 күн бұрын

Nope . They dilute shares like crazy

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@Learntsomethingtoday 18 күн бұрын

Buy the ADR or the Brazilian stock?

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

Depends on you

@chrisapplebach4756 20 күн бұрын

Best Channel On KZfaq

@vladisan1 20 күн бұрын

100% agree. Content is top notch!

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks!!

@Amwatson801 20 күн бұрын

Gross margins have declined from 66% to 50% over the past decade as revenues declined consistently 2014-19 (while acquisitions were being made): very ugly trend. Dividends represent 60-80% of cashflows over the past 5 years. Revenue surge in recent years (while volumes dropped) seems purely a result of inflation. So all you can essentially count on is the (high payout) dividend.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@boristruth7912 14 күн бұрын

I invested $500 let's see in 1-3 years if it will get 2-3x or get cheaper. Relatively small position in my portfolio. I like to see some drinks in my portfolio after long holding Coca-Cola & Pepsi.

@Value-Investing 14 күн бұрын

thanks for sharing

@hammer49946 7 күн бұрын

Do you know what the foreign tax rate is from dividends received?

@Frank-yx1np 20 күн бұрын

True ..agree

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks

@bernteinar906 20 күн бұрын

Lol bought Ambev @2.08 on the 3 of july :)

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@kuckol 20 күн бұрын

Thank you Sven

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thank you

@BtotheW 20 күн бұрын

Good day Sven

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Good day

@mrx2062 20 күн бұрын

The issue is, when it cannot really grow, it cannot organically reinvest and therefore not really compound.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@extramild1 19 күн бұрын

Just awful beer but a good company I would say. A p/e of nearly 13 and a 7% dividend - a man could do worse things with his money. But this company has been very good at destroying value since the merger with Bud. Given how cheap the shares are I would like to see the company buying back shares and paying down debt rather than paying out a 7% dividend.

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@runabath 20 күн бұрын

Iv dipped my toe in this one y has it gone down tho

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@Ravencroft81 18 күн бұрын

Ironicly AB Inbev has been such a poor investment the past decade.

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

It is what it is

@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ 20 күн бұрын

Pros: Sells a product people want. Company will not go bankrupt. Pays you well to wait. Diversification away from dollar. Cons. Its been dead money for a decade. Woke disasters of product advertising. Poltics in Brazil.

@SigFigNewton 20 күн бұрын

Dead money with a 7% yield is live money

@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ 20 күн бұрын

@@SigFigNewton Only 7% after it dropped by 70%

@TheBooban 20 күн бұрын

I think a lot due to IPA trend. I think that’s over now. Every stock has a bottom. This may be it!

@SigFigNewton 19 күн бұрын

@@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ ah yea, I keep forgetting that past performance is how to determine future performance

@stefanbromberger8785 19 күн бұрын

@@SigFigNewtonHe is just trying to explain to you that this is NOT a dividend growth play.

@juniorbalteus4700 20 күн бұрын

Please do a oibr3 video🙏

@fpivi 19 күн бұрын

Book value per share = R$ -400,00. Not great

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@aleemahmed6201 20 күн бұрын

IMO investing in companies that are net negatives to society is counter intuitive.

@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ 20 күн бұрын

Name any company and I will list a dozen "negatives" to society. Plus...Beer makes us happy 😊

@_mklein 20 күн бұрын

What a stupid comment 😂

@aleemahmed6201 20 күн бұрын

@@SJFyoutube exactly.

@aleemahmed6201 20 күн бұрын

@@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ the keyword is “net”

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@sandraamehd5622 19 күн бұрын

If you don't find a means of multiplying your income you will wake up one day to realize you didn't plan..

@Value-Investing 16 күн бұрын

:-)

@fregger74 20 күн бұрын

have you looked as celsius? Reminds me a lot of a Peter Lynch type investment. A good product that is being adopted rapidly, with a great balance sheet and a long runway for growth

@Value-Investing 15 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing