POV: You only watched this because of school

Anne Milgram's smart way of using statistics to reduce crime is certainly wonderful TED talk and it's easily qualifies to be 'strongly recommended' category. This is how the government and other law-enforcement officials should use the data to create a hassle-free environment, save public fund and ultimately make our life better. Well Done. Incredibly brilliant, and absolutely stunning out-of-the-box thinking.

Fantastic! It's great that objective science is playing an increasing role in matters of public decision making. The numbers, with proper analysis, do not lie and can provide insight and visibility to things that were previously invisible. Data analysis will not only improve the safety of streets, but will also improve medical outcomes by curbing disease transmission and providing insight into better combinations of treatments. It will help us reduce energy consumption and environmentally devastating pollutions that greatly affect our eco-system and quality of life. It will highlight what is actually working as we try for a smarter, more mentally competent society. And it may one day aid diplomacy and *drastically* reduce instances of war. Stories like this are inspiring and I'm glad that data analysis and statistics are becoming increasingly fashionable. Kudos to Anne Milgram for having the wherewithal to use her influence to implement such a culturally dissonant yet wholly effective tool. The would-be victims of crime surely give their thanks.

Can we have more people like her in important positions, please.

I am very curious if there is any article/document that describes the analysis of the model that was created and implemented behind the interface. A paper where I could find some description of the variables used for the model. I hope it is not too much to ask! Please!

Step one, stop sending non-violent "criminals" who haven't hurt anybody else to prison.

What Do We Want?! Evidence Based Change! When Do We Want It?! After Peer Review!

really good !!

Great presentation. I'm glad someone is taking steps to repair our criminal justice system. Special thanks for using valid logic instead of an appeal to emotion.

I believe the real problem in 'merica is that they criminalized too many human behaviors (searching food, clothes, shelter, etc.) and do not do a good job at preventing such states (some even call it socialism, and fear it). This is, however, a really great tool for law & order. I sure hope they can implement it and expand it over the next years, or it is the young who will pay the price.

Excellent video.

I thought raising the minimum wage was the best way to get rid of crime.

cool stuff, I think I will do such a thesis and present this to Kenya government...

Fantastic!

This is amazing!

How reliable is the dataset is > 60% of the offender population is senteced injustly. Is the dataset reliable then?

This woman has indirectly killed three people due to her "ways of fighting crime", her DEA has suspended the license of a doctor who had practiced for 50 years and had not one complaint. He treated very complex cases in which many patients became bedridden with pain. Sadly when his license was suspended two families (so far) with patients, a beautiful mother and husband then had to deal with the only thing that works being taken away from them. She signed the complaint knew about it did not help she has blood on her hands and will the rest of her life. Look it up.

yet its 2021 and nothings changed.

I’m scared of a dip in qualitative assessment ability amongst judges with this tool. The best way to use this tool: as an organization of assessed data. The numbers don’t make the decision, the judge does. The whole point of a justice system is to find the exception.

great presentation, but I'm conflicted. although I believe it may benefit certain people, I also believe it could hinder others in the end who may have changed. for instant how would this work for someone who was a troubled juvenile becoming a mature, learned there lesson adult will those statistics follow them

Science for the win!

Results speak for themselves, keep it up.

If judgement was a vehicle, having stats is like driving with a tuneup. Smart talk.

I'm an IT guy... and no doubt that these data driven decisions will do some good. However, That system is merciless to those who might actually have a change of heart and want to change their ways. By solidifying our decisions based on nothing but pure data driven risk tools is that you have to completely turn your back on the fact that a man can change his state and begin to move forward just because a piece of data says they are likely to go back to their old ways.

Am I the only one watching this video in 2020....with hope that we can fight crime

A phenomenon. Though I could not believe that they didn't have such a tool in the US before this.

Please think why people are making a crime in the first case.

I like how they spend huge amounts of money and time to decide if someone who stole blankets is a danger to the public, instead of trying to figure out why he had to steel three blankets. The problem is while crime fighting is easy and doesn't eliminate the actual cause for crime, crime prevention can only be done by a change of culture, which includes the non-criminal people. Its like painkillers, it is easier to take them to ease the pain instead of changing your live style to prevent them in the first place. And than you can show fancy statistics, that show that people who took painkillers had less pain than people who didn't take them and therefore are the best thing you can do about pain. Where is the statistic that shows, that spending the same amount of money and time in working on the social system and trying to change culture on the long term would have been less beneficial?

Im actually a little shocked that this hasn't been done sooner. As someone who works in the IT industry, I assumed criminal analytics would already be in full swing.

I think that the process would be better if it simply showed to the judges the how many risk factors presents the criminal and which percent of new criminal activity belongs to each risk factor. Added bonus if it showed the most similar cases to the one presented, with the choices made and the results of that choice. Having all of that data simplified to a single score doesn't explain how that score was given

this is absolutely horrible! that checklist will only take responsibility away from the judges and promote fast, ill-advised decision making. how about finding solutions to the problems you talked about first instead of helping judges put people into jail quicker? the huge percentage of people reincarcerated is not an indicator of bad people, it is an indicator of a bad justice system, not constructed to help criminals get back into normal life but having the opposite effect, trainig them to hardend ciminals.

Need more people like her to change the world

Yes, Data Is The Smart Way To Go.

Why lowering the causes of crime is the key to fighting crime. Oh that must have been a different video.

Wow... the power of statistics and probability... witch I study right now

"It works" she says, meaning for every district it will work at a 95% confidence level if it's to be employed across the nation? Assuming all districts are equal culturally, demographically, and economically for one universal scale to work? Why does she not address the real science and statistics behind her talk of "statistics and analytics"?

The data used to predict reoffenders is the simple fact that they don't turn up to court. If an offender doesn't have the guts to face their problems, it's unlikely they're gonna have what it takes to change their lifestyle of criminal activity. Legalising or decriminalizing cannabis is also likely to reduce the amount of petty criminals currently in jails, however the government profits from private prison population. Prison guards are allegedly known to encourage prison crime so inmates don't get released - because without prisoners, the guards don't have a job. The system needs to focus on actual rehabilitation, because if people are resorting to criminal activity then there is something they haven't learned about living effectively in a modern society. Jail is a last resort, they needs to be more programs in place to ensure it doesn't get to that point... and as always it starts with education!

I see her point, and as long as the statistic does not determine if the person goes to jail or is released on it's own, but after the judge considers other factors it is not a bad thing in my opinion. Still, I do not like where this is going. The criminal system, and the Law in general are things that have a very big human component. You cannot find 2 identical cases, the same way you cannot find 2 identical people, thus statistic and math are never going to be able to produce a fair and just solution. Taking into consideration the exampe of the man in texas who spent that much time in jail for stealing blankets because he was cold, if that is really the case, the problem is that the Judge did not make an informed decision, probably because of extreme workload. But the solution in my opinion, should not be leaving those decisions to statistical analysis, but to a Judge who has the time to look into every case individually.

2021 gang

This will destroy NJ. The cost to the tax payer. The cost to their rights. Their judicial system will be a revolving door letting criminals out of jail that will not show up to court. Crime rates will sky rocket. Look at Chicago IL a no bail state and Portland OR Portland Oregon Multnomah county has more active warrants then the States of California Texas and New York Combined.Yakima Washington has been using this system for 2 years and the have had 8 murders in the first quarter of 2017. Population of 250,000. Commercial bail saves tax payers 5.3 million dollars a year per bail agent. And fortifies you rights. The Arnold Foundation Vera Institute and Mac Arthur Foundation are funded by corporation build new jails and prisons. And run privatized prisons.

What a horrific idea in the age of hacking. Those who can access the system may decide everything.

EXCELLENT ! :) :)

So how many people want to continue living on the grid? Reply with "Grid" or "Wild".

Sounds great, but when we speak about measuring things, we all like to know the difference between judges their results, who don't use a system like that and the ones who do. Next to this, criminals who are sentenced to do some community service, mostly show lower recidivism, than criminals who are send to jail. But that's because not every criminal is the same and the judge bases his/her opinion on that. So I wonder if statistics, even when they're smart, always work in the justice system.

This is great but I would like to add it might be good start to take mental health seriously and provide more assistance to the 30 million individuals with mental health abnormalities living on the streets and currently incarcerated. Washington State was sued for violation of 6th amendment rights for those with mental illness sitting in jails awaiting reviews from psychologist and court dates to determine competency. The criminal justice system shouldn't be held responsible for mental health.

great, so she upgraded us from sticky notes to check lists....brilliant...NOT!

hey tim

6:42

So much for innocent until proven guilty..... oh wait, what am I talking about? .....that went out the door a LONG time ago, right around 4 minutes after they coined the term, lol. Less than 5% of crimes are violent crimes, and to add, violent crime have reduced continuously over the past several decades. I was actually in court the other day for a traffic violation and was sitting right behind a couple of lawyers and over heard the two women talking about the foot injury one of the female lawyers had. She was asked what happened and replied to the other lawyer, "well, I was putting some things in my trunk when I saw a large man walking my way and I panicked and hurried into my car to lock the doors and slammed my foot in the door." (unnamed attorney) Ha, I really wanted to call her out on her gender socialization. In other words, she has been socialized to fear without warrant and ended up hurting herself, while this guy was simply walking to his own car in the parking garage. Remember, less than 5% of all crimes are violent crimes, yet every girl walking down the street is in complete apprehension over this less than 5% (and that's not just rape). What about the other 95% of the time NOTHING HAPPENS????? We have WAY too many innocent people being prosecuted because of this fear factor. Same reason this country is full of gun nuts. Crime and punishment is BIG BUSINESS in this country. Socialize and spread love people.... spread love.

Exists only when a crime is committed by people who can. If people are free to make mistakes so are to hit. Do we need a tool to make people better citizens or for judges to sleep peacefully? If they can not commit crimes no crimes. A life without freedom is worth living? Compare baseball statistics seems amazing. Sport is something that is done in a deliberate way. You practice to win. The statistics tell us who are the best to win. What the statistics tell us that they will lose? Blind, maimed, crippled or sick. What's next?. Depending on the race, creed or political ideas is easier than other criminals, that's what the statistics say. What risk is worse?

8 months for stealing blankets!! he wouldn't have gotten that if he were convicted!

The one thing you can always count on with a TED talk is a lively "discussion". I guess I have to look at this as, which shoe do you wear to analyze this? If you yourself act out and engage in a violent crime, versus someone who is the victim of a violent crime, do you change your opinion on the "matrix" so to speak? If I beat the holy hell out of someone with a baseball bat, and feel justified in doing it; then stand before a judge, he runs me through this "system" and decides based on the fact that I've never been involved in a violent crime before, I've never had a run in with the law before, then I'm free to go. As the violent person, did the system work? I'm likely to think it did. What about the person I beat up? Did the "system" decide properly? They are likely going to say no. While I like it as a tool, I don't necessarily believe in it. If a judge turns to this program first, get's a predisposed verdict, no matter what you, your attorney, or anyone else says, there's a chance he's already been biased and doesn't that defeat the purpose of "Justice Is Blind"?

Anne Milgram probably has good intensions, but that doesn't automatically make her solution a good one. She's right about the fact that they US justice system is primarily punishing the wrong people. This new system is probably not going to change that though. I think the @10:45 is pretty illustrative of the limitations of this system. Although she says that the system isn't intended to take away the intuition and experience away from Judges, this is exactly what it will do. It's well known that if you give people tools that give then even as much as the illusion of doing their work for them, they become lazy and stop using their own brains. Especially people who are already under a lot of work load. Even worse, if this system would become public any Judge who would go against the assessment results could be facing a lot of criticism. It would just be less hassle for Judges to follow the assessment blindly, which is what is going to happen. Those who won't go with that flow will be the ones most appealed and eventually selected out of the justice system. There is a good reason why automated judgments do not have a place in any sound justice system. Not only is judgment an affair that is legally bound only to human beings, the judgmental quality of machines doesn't even come close to that of a well trained human. No matter how hard advocates try to convince people of the contrary. The problem within the US justice system, which are very real and making it one of the if not the worst system amongst the 1st world countries, can not be solved with this kind of technology. They would make a lot better chance of solving problems by starting to really tackle the biggest criminals. Many of those are amongst the top 1% of the US richest people and are responsible for generating the motives behind the majority of all others crimes in the country. The US also has to start tackling the internationally operating criminals, especially their war criminals and war profiteers. If the US doesn't start doing that, there will come an inevitable day were the rest of the world will decide that enough crime (with impunity) has come from the US. The isolation and sanctions that will follow, will sooner or later destroy the US. No automated risk assessment system is going to safe the US from that one.

^^^^^^^^ Next President ^^^^^^^^ Who new someone in US Government actually gets the difference between subjective opinions, and objective information.

How does your statistics plan work for people who are charged just for having a darker skin color? Human factor are still the big problem.

I picture a Jonah Hill faced Judge.

Open Data and Data Science will save the world

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Why this won't work? Because it doesn't address 2 major self reinforcing problems. The prison system is a business and The "War on Drugs" is a business. The people in power won't let these businesses fail without a fight. Holding prisoners is big business. The US has the highest incarceration rate in the world. United States holds 25% of the world’s prison population, but only 5% of the world’s people. Private prisons receive a guaranteed amount of money for each prisoner, independent of what it costs to maintain each one. War on Drugs, the system is setup to perpetuate the war, with more and more funding being provided each year. Where does that money go? It filters down through various organisations, with everyones hands getting a piece along the way. Ending the War on Drugs and legalizing drugs would save an estimated $41.3 billion annually on enforcement and incarceration costs in the U.S. alone. (wiki) So the vested interests will not let this profitable system stop churning out more prisoners to feed into the machine, morality, justice and human decency be damned.

Thirteen Percent

Newark still has over 100 homicides soo good luck

What's up

If she meant business she would decriminalize marijuana..

Well you give me money ball but that's only one success story.....what is the data saying once more MLB teams started using it....what is the success rate then....are we manifesting another movie "minority report"....the judge's prosecutor's and cop's subject training and experience are relative and relevant only to the level at which they have been educated and experienced crime. Justice is blind and thus must always be given objectivity in the analysis of investigated corroborated facts....and you have put the cart before the horse.... It would have to start from the bottom and work its way up the first contact it is so subjective and quote unquote hunchy is where you really need to have the objective analysis to protect citizens because at the top level the attorney level and at the judge level there are different standards of proof how do you analytically account for that at any level. Just food for thought. But more importantly how can we talk about criminal Justice reform without reforming the 13th amendment how can we talk criminal Justice reform without talking about re-engineering the destruction of the Fourth amendment done by conservative courts at the supreme appellate circuit level and at the district level and at the state levels. And it all goes for not if we don't create a reconsideration of all issues done prior to if we find Injustice in the administration of criminal Justice justice requires reconsideration of everything and in the interest of Justice everything should be considered because to be able to take someone's life their Liberty their franchise and they're very ability to have a life as a citizen it's fundamentally with Justice and the American way dictates so if you going to be lazy and you want to push numbers all day fine but push them all push them all back and render the Injustice Justice. A great start but you can't hit an easy button on a complicated situation just doing something is better than nothing but do it right make it clean

She sounds shes on to something, and shes cute !

Why is she speaking as if the justice system is not corrupted and as if their main goal is not getting as much money as they can?

This TED talk didn't hold up well for miss Milgram did it? She's terrible at her job.😑

Next step...the purge...

ONLY way to reduce crime is inhibit criminal opportunity NOT punishment. Pure stupid. Just my opinion.

yeah ban thco but dont ban cancer sticks shes not smart

wtf is she talking about

The biggest flaw in her analogy is when a baseball scout gets it wrong, there are no victims. When people like her get it wrong, somebody suffers. You can't "Moneyball" the prediction of human behavior.

She is so beautiful. She can put me in cuffs anytime.