Are We in an AI Bubble?

Рет қаралды 110,286

Күн бұрын

Sign up to Brilliant and you'll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription: brilliant.org/tldr/
Last week, Nvidia revealed another massive increase to their revenues, attributing it to AI and their hardware developments. But, Nvidia isn't the only company either with huge revenues, leading many to suspect that the AI boom might just be a bubble.
🎞 TikTok: / tldrnews
💡 Got a Topic Suggestion? - forms.gle/mahEFmsW1yGTNEYXA
Support TLDR on Patreon: / tldrnews
Donate by PayPal: tldrnews.co.uk/funding
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
1 - www.ft.com/content/2ce59a81-6...
2 - www.nber.org/system/files/wor...
3 - www.oecd.org/newsroom/economi...
4 - / we-stock-market-bubble...
5 - www.ben-evans.com/benedicteva...
6 - www.profgalloway.com/bubble-ai/
7 - fullratio.com/stocks/nasdaq-n...
8 - www.profgalloway.com/bubble-ai/
9 - / we-stock-market-bubble...
00:00 - Introduction
01:25 - It's a Boom
04:56 - It's a Bubble
06:30 - Why Both Sides Could be Right
07:25 - Sponsored Content

Пікірлер: 518

@GillerHeston 8 күн бұрын

AI stocks will dominate 2024 but not just AI. NVIDIA, Alphabet, Tesla are at a better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I have made more than 200% ROI from NVIDIA with the help of my stocks advisor. With the help of my advisor I agree that stock Like Twoo would also go higher in the next year and a bit high this year with the announcement of launch of its video game.

@rogerwheelers4322 8 күн бұрын

This is Interesting because i bought NVIDIA around September last year. The company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return last year, and I'm sure this year will present other interesting stocks.

@joshbarney114 8 күн бұрын

When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health (AMD) alongside coins, and gold. I'm also working on an investment plan that includes AI looking into Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet stocks among others with my Fin. Advisor, . It's been a year and half of steady growth.

@FabioOdelega876 8 күн бұрын

I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

@joshbarney114 8 күн бұрын

Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

@FabioOdelega876 8 күн бұрын

I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Marisa Breton Dollard up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

@McElvinn 3 күн бұрын

Been beating myself up a bit that I sold my 53 shares of NIVIDA at $303 each back in May 2023. Now thinking of liquidating a few other investments to rebuy but afraid to do so. I also currently have 500k in savings making me next to nothing.

@AUstinnesc 3 күн бұрын

investors like you should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.

@sheltonPston 3 күн бұрын

You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 14.3%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an advisor.

@corrySledd 3 күн бұрын

I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?

@sheltonPston 3 күн бұрын

I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with the popularly ‘’Amber Kay Wright” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

@chrissmurrayy 3 күн бұрын

Thank you for the lead, searched Amber Kay Wright by her full name and at once spotted her consulting page, she seems highly professional having over 12 years of experience. amazing!

@AdamLevine759 3 күн бұрын

I read a comment from someone who bought NVDA shares in 2016 based on Cramer's advice, which underscores the value of information and insight. I believe AI is on the verge of a new phase, and I plan to invest my $260k savings to capitalize on substantial gains.

@AmberHeardo 3 күн бұрын

Absolutely crucial in the stock market: information, insight, and predictability. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my finacial advisor guidance was invaluable.

@KeanuReevesf 3 күн бұрын

People often underestimate the importance of financial advisors. Over 50 years of data reveal that those who work with advisors typically earn more than those who go it alone. I've been fortunate to work with one for 13 years, resulting in a $2 million portfolio, largely from early investments in AI and other growth stocks.

@Hamdanbin- 3 күн бұрын

I have cash in the bank that I want to invest in the stock market, but I'm worried about choosing the wrong stocks. Could you refer me to your financial advisor?

@KeanuReevesf 3 күн бұрын

I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since everyone's situation varies, but I've worked with "Melissa Elise Robinson" for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.

@Hamdanbin- 3 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

@LCTesla 24 күн бұрын

when TLDR catches on to something you know you're at the peak

@fluttee 24 күн бұрын

For realllll

@hendrx 24 күн бұрын

Facts

@jimbojimbo6873 24 күн бұрын

Faxx

@FigitTheDigit 22 күн бұрын

You mean they're super far behind? 😂

@niedas3426 24 күн бұрын

Yes and no. We are in a marketing bubble. AI models are being marketed for everything under the sun, including where AI doesn't fit. However, AI already is and has been employed in many areas successfully for a long time. E.g. if you've ever used google translate, that's AI from c.a. 2018 onward (after the transformer model took over).

@Marco_Onyxheart 24 күн бұрын

Exactly. People just think ChatGPT when they hear AI. I think drones and farming equipment.

@wile123456 24 күн бұрын

WE should really also call it what it is, machine learning, which is old tech, and the actual newe thing is large generative machine learning models. Artificial Inteligence references everything from simple algorithms that mimics the inteligence of dust mites, to complex algorithms that are closer to human like tasks (but nothing is there yet, becase "experts" who lie and say AI is better, fail to realize that AI can't combine all these texts yet.)

@DarkHarlequin 24 күн бұрын

My company had regular AI meetings and something I keep reiterating is: the places where AI will have the biggest, most game changing impact are the most boring fields you're not even thinking about right now. Process Data Analysis, Research Data sampling, Big Data Visualization & sorting! All the stuff you're currently seeing and mostly talking about is flashy but much more smoke than fire.

@llothar68 24 күн бұрын

@@wile123456 The older name for AI is not machine learning but Linear Algebra.

@donnieamz2938 24 күн бұрын

@@wile123456 machine learning is part of AI, what are you talking about? You are like saying rice is not food. sure, food is wider than rice, but rice is still food. Machine Learning and Deep Learning are both "branches" of AI, despite AI is wider than just ML and DL.

@gp-1542 24 күн бұрын

“Are…are we in a bubble?” “God i hope so”

@veraxiana9993 24 күн бұрын

My thoughts exactly lol

@kythrathesuntamer9715 18 күн бұрын

@@veraxiana9993 I know right, if it's a bubble we will soon be in a used GPU glut and that would be like the best thing that ever happened in tech. All your video cards all the video cards you could ever want for pennies on the dollar. just imagine. Kaboom and every one of us who ever wanted to build a 12 gpu rig to do something like crack hashes will suddenly find it downright affordable.

@Veryrealangrybirds 12 күн бұрын

In fact it is

@sooraj1104 10 күн бұрын

It's not.

@Veryrealangrybirds 9 күн бұрын

@@sooraj1104 it's a possibility

@ivayloangelov2336 23 күн бұрын

That twitch in your eye every time Ben says "NaVidia" 😂😂

@emelpolat4762 8 күн бұрын

Don't know what you mean. I love watching te le de re news...

@shubhamparashar9430 24 күн бұрын

Yes, I did my masters in data science and have been working in the same field since. It's almost fascinating to see the marketing captivate the masses when the backend is largely a blackbox based on trial and error. The maths does not back up audience expectation and the reality will hit eventually. That being said, niche usage such as billing/first stage tech support will find footing but human intervention will always be needed to mitigate random behaviour.

@Ro1andDesign 24 күн бұрын

Yes, I agree to some extent. But if many tasks can be automated 99% (which I am seeing in my industry; finance/asset management), that 1% that fails/is left can be manually handled. Assuming these exception cases take an above average amount of time (let's say up to 20% of the total time), it could still result in 50-80% cost savings (assuming the implementation and maintenance of the AI model is not too costly). What do you think? I'm personally seeing great results with my own use cases and implementations.

@henrytep8884 24 күн бұрын

Yes we may not have AGI…but that doesn’t mean we aren’t going to have hyper productive people that are gifted enough with AI to do the work of 1000 of their co workers. It’s just a matter of scale and magnitude.

@Lo6a4evskiy 24 күн бұрын

I disagree. Unlike say blockchain, this tech is clearly really useful. The issue is usually data (for example Stable Diffusion being trained on really poor captions), incorrect usage and expectations (people wondering why don't these models have "proper" sense of 3D space for example when that is completely lacking in any training) or trying to do too many things at once. The latter especially is why targeted fine tunes do a hell of a lot better than the base models. Given these limitations it's absolutely incredible what these models already accomplish and reducing this to "blackbox of trial and error" is incredibly disingenuous.

@Eval48292 24 күн бұрын

I disagree, scaling is working very well

@patternwhisperer4048 24 күн бұрын

Irrelevant comment

@prettyawesomeperson2188 24 күн бұрын

Yes. Anyone who has ever dealt with "AI" knows this. The only one praising are the companies who are to gain from it, and money aroused CEOs who think they can replace their workforce with it.

@Marco_Onyxheart 24 күн бұрын

That's a miopically limited view. I've seen it used in drones that would automatically search for procession caterpillars. Or for searching for people in hard to reach places when a building has collapsed. You don't want to just send people in there headfirst, you want to send robots or drones, and those robots/drones nowadays run neural networks on Nvidia Jetson Nanos. Hardly tasks where AI replaces jobs. Although I suppose farming robots could be seen as an example of jobs getting replaced, although given the labour shortages, I don't think that would be fair to say either.

@prettyawesomeperson2188 24 күн бұрын

@@Marco_Onyxheart detected the normie that has no experience with ai and is already aboard the hype train. Fucking "ai" can't tell number 1 float and number 2 float apart ror Jesus Christ. Image generation can't tell colours apart from each other. Nvidias English=Programming is a scam. Automatic search drones already exists.

@HarambaeXelonmuskfans 24 күн бұрын

@@Marco_OnyxheartThat is an extreme example where AI is actually useful whereas most companies are shoehorning it into literally anything so that it has “AI” in it’s description. E.g. Google putting it into their search

@daniel_tenner 24 күн бұрын

I’m dealing with AI. You’re dead wrong. I know non-tech SMEs that spent a month building a simple wrapper around Claude 3 (and now GPT-4o), deployed it, and are saving £100k+/y in costs and speeding up their processes as a bonus. So I guess you’re not strictly wrong, except “the companies who are to gain from it” is every single company out there.

@guss77 24 күн бұрын

@@daniel_tenner Like the bulimia hot line that replaced their operators with an "AI" chat that told callers that they will feel better if they'd stop eating (the entire operation had to be shutdown) or the Air Canada bot that promised a refund process that didn't exist (court mandated the bot's hallucination to be followed and additional damages and fees paid)? There are probably more "yet to be disproven to be working" cases than these "have been disproven to be useful or cost effective to the point of losing a lot of money", but time will tell. I think it's important to make a distinction between carefully planned minimal impact ML usage, especially around classifying and control, especially where human bias is normally minimal (such as identifying fire or caterpillars) - that had been a widely used tool for many years now - and the hodgepodge stochastic parotting (read "generative AI") that had taken the industry in the last couple of years - and for which a significantly useful (in more than slight productivity improvement) and non-terminally-brain-dead use had yet to be discovered.

@LCTesla 24 күн бұрын

I don't think using NVidia's earnings as an indicator of reasonable profits from AI is fair, because NVidia is a (nearly monopolized) 3rd down the line supplier (Nvidia -> cloud platform providers -> startups) to most of the AI startups where the overvaluation is really taking place. Like it famously always does during these rushes, it pays more to sell shovels than to dig for gold.

@lambda653 23 күн бұрын

Right. Nvidia profits only show the investment into AI, not the profit. The profit can only be found by analyzing the market consumption of AI products, which isn't very high at the moment.

@benjaminpedi9122 17 күн бұрын

True but their earnings will not only stop growing but completely fall apart. I dont think its sustainable even for hyperscalers to upgrade billions of $ hardware every year, especially once venture capital money dries and the startups start dropping like dead flies

@MatthewMS. 17 күн бұрын

@@benjaminpedi9122you forgot about world nations, government spending.

@fionnmcglacken35 24 күн бұрын

As a data scientist working on AI, I think it's a huge bubble. LLMs are cool, but they're not ready for prime time in mid to large companies with reputations on the line. Currently, the focus in industry is on developing guardrails and integrating with existing architectures. This is about two years away. Imo, the hype will be justified at that point, but not now.

@Marco_Onyxheart 24 күн бұрын

Yeah, but AI is not just LLMs. People don't put Nvidia Jetson Nanos on drones or farming equipment to make them talk. It's for a variety of AI (and especially computer vision) tasks.

@fionnmcglacken35 24 күн бұрын

@@Marco_Onyxheart obviously I know that lol. But currently it's driven by LLM hype

@llothar68 24 күн бұрын

you can never have all guardrails to prevent it from giving stupid results.

@LuigiSimoncini 24 күн бұрын

@@Marco_Onyxheart Uff!!!

@fionnmcglacken35 24 күн бұрын

@@llothar68 you absolutely can (in time) for 99% of cases, the question is what are the tradeoffs and the consequences of the 1% missed.

@quatreunhuit 24 күн бұрын

Yes there is bruh, they're pairing an AI chatbox with everything under the sun. They'd put an AI on my toaster -as if anyone needs this- if they could.

@Marco_Onyxheart 24 күн бұрын

Those gimmicks are not the only thing AI is used for. I've seen a lot of drones running neural networks on Nvidia hardware. Especially when computer vision enters the game. AI is being researched and/or used for the detection of procession caterpillars, fire detection, automated farming equipment, you name it. AI has been used for yeeeaaars for that sort of stuff.

@WhichDoctor1 23 күн бұрын

@@Marco_Onyxheart yes but the current hype isn't about any of that stuff. it's about LLMs and diffusion models. When people say "AI" in the current climate, they are talking about chatGPT and Dall-E and their like and not really anything else. No one is hyping up caterpillar detection or warning of the risks to human civilization of robot farm machinery. All the crazy hype and therefore the bubble is around LLMs doing everyone's jobs for them and AI art programs making entire blockbuster movies without any actors or writers or animators. That's where the imaginary money is

@sunnohh 23 күн бұрын

@@Marco_Onyxheartai is just someone coding a thing

@bornach 23 күн бұрын

AI toaster: "Ahh..so you're a waffle man"

@Takyodor2 23 күн бұрын

@@sunnohh While I think AI is overhyped, that's not exactly true. Machine learning (which is what most mean by AI at the moment) doesn't require that the programmer knows how to solve the problem, just provide training data and tell the algorithm what the problem is, and you might get a solution.

@lordwiadro83 24 күн бұрын

For those wondering why he is mispronouncing the name of nVidia. It's a deliberate trick to generate more comments.

@yomi001 24 күн бұрын

You're a deliberate trick.

@pb6481 24 күн бұрын

Thanks for explaining this, I almost fell for it. I can't believe I almost wrote a comment because of this trick 🤦‍♂

@_ao101 24 күн бұрын

@@pb6481 I think you still fell for that trick. Good that I didn't

@RaharijaoDavid 24 күн бұрын

@@pb6481aahh man me too...good thing I stopped myself from writing a comment 😉

@user-op8fg3ny3j 24 күн бұрын

@@pb6481 you still left a comment

@ElPincheTurro 24 күн бұрын

3:19 are you kidding me? AI has brought a shit ton of these

@bornach 23 күн бұрын

And we already have a high profile BS product - Rabbit R1 with its vaporware Large Action Model that is actually a bunch of hard coded Playwright scripts

@elriano1 8 күн бұрын

Agreed, it's a really naive take from them. It's only apparent retrospectively which companies will go on to be successful and which ones are worthless. There are tons of AI startups that already seem completely redundant/fraudulent (Rabit R1, Devin, etc), even the AI projects from large companies like Google and Microsoft seem like nothing impressive, but we won't know for sure until this is all over.

@JayAndNightASMR 24 күн бұрын

Already happened in Art world. A.I users spam art sites and put off traditional ones. Then A.I art started copying themselves making all the art look the same

@yumri4 22 күн бұрын

I think what you are talking about is using a base model to make a trained model. That is still very common yes though then you have sites that make their own base models now so Stable Diffusion shouldn't have the social media monopoly on it anymore but still does. There are around 4 or 5 main base models right now they everyone seems to use. SD, SDXL, DALL-E, MidJounry, and the model Meta made. Everything else seems to be trained off of them though you do have some sites with propriety models so they do not allow you to look at their code. What you are talking about is also most likely the LoRAs part not the AI models part. 2 different things. Most LoRAs i have seen well i am surprised the copyright owner of the IP hasn't taken them down yet. Might be the part of "it is legally distinct enough from the IP in the court of law to not conflict". That doesn't mean it isn't very similar to it in the eyes of the viewer. It does explain why every thumbnail they use is an AI generated image. I am thinking the same about the art styles LoRAs though some do make it generate an image in the same way the artist would have. The part of " legally distinct enough from the IP in the court of law to not conflict" is how pokemon, digimon, and palword can exist side by side without any law suits happening. They just are drawn by hand not drawn by a computer is all.

@AdamQueen 24 күн бұрын

Definitely YES, and silicon valley is always full of hype and unfinished/unprofitable/unrealistic products. Even the internet takes decades to develop (from dialup to nowadays broadband), smartphones were initially just full of useless gimmicks and no app store. Silicon valley should really be renamed HYPE valley.

@hackman6486 24 күн бұрын

I mean, the internet and smartphones DID eventually change the way we live though. Bad example

@xungnham1388 23 күн бұрын

Smartphones had an app store within a year of introduction. You could even say the smartphone hype didn't start until the app store was available because the iphone's first year was a bit lackluster, ($600 price tag and at&t exclusivity really hampered it's first year uptake). If anything, smartphones are the perfect example of the technology that lived up to expectations and furthest thing from a bubble.

@MimOzanTamamogullar 21 күн бұрын

@hackman6486 It's a great example. AI is essentially the smartphone revolution of the 2020s.

@TheVirtualObserver 24 күн бұрын

I think a mixture of constant hallucinations, disinterest among the general populace (once the novelty wears off), exorbitant running costs, and rising consumer prices, will ultimately doom maybe half of current AI companies in the next 2 years. That and new regulations are being written at a breakneck speed to rein in AI before it causes massive problems in a manner we haven't seen in a while. Previously, the SEC and other three-letter agencies were more than happy to let crypto mostly run its course before stepping in, they certainly aren't treating AI the same way (which is good IMO).

@phooogle 24 күн бұрын

I hope my pension fund isn't 99% invested if it is a bubble

@personzorz 23 күн бұрын

It is

@phooogle 23 күн бұрын

@@personzorz nooooo

@unconventionalideas5683 22 күн бұрын

@@phooogle Pension funds are diverse enough that they are not 99% invested in anything.

@shroomer3867 18 күн бұрын

Funds are usually diversifed, this means that if some company goes bust, you'll often times see a small decline in your funds, but will continue going up long term over the years if the rest of the economy is doing fine and the fund is diversified well. (Of course this is not legal advice, any past returns or behaviours are not indicative or future returns or behaviours)

@janhumiecki2827 24 күн бұрын

Any answer longer than "Yes" is too long

@monotonehell 24 күн бұрын

Perhaps, but I'm more concerned with Tesla being included in the non-bs group.

@dorianodet8064 24 күн бұрын

Exactly. A bubble is a bubble. No matter if the underlying value is partially real, or 100% bullshit.

@Marco_Onyxheart 24 күн бұрын

But any answer that's "yes" is also incorrect. I don't think robot dogs that search for survivors in collapsed buildings are a bubble, but those definitely run AI.

@definitelynotadam 24 күн бұрын

"AI" is the current corporate fantasy of replacing the main "cost" of their operations: staff.

@carultch 23 күн бұрын

And ultimately destroying their bottom line, when it causes mass unemployment and no one who can afford to buy their products.

@carultch 23 күн бұрын

Automation is a prisoner's dilemma. You maximize your own company's profit by doing it, but if everyone does it, every company will be ruined. You can't automate your way to prosperity forever.

@nicetheproject 24 күн бұрын

AI is a buzz word that encompasses a lot of different things and therefore, yes it is a buble. The reason being the lack of bullshit companies is due to the initial cost and time required to get things started. Will the advancements in machine learning technologies be transformative? Yes but it's too early to tell hiw it will improve productivity.

@tnield9727 24 күн бұрын

You forgot two very important factors. First there's the fact contemporary AI (including LLMs and self-driving cars) are often wrong and inevitably an approximation algorithm that degrades in domains with infinite edge cases. Then there is the matter of nearly two decades of low interest rates fueling investor speculation, and disincentivizes profitable businesses and instead equity plays that benefits from greater fool theory.

@zachb1706 24 күн бұрын

Interest rates are currently at a high

@suryakamalnd9888 24 күн бұрын

We sure are..

@Mesozoic_mammal 24 күн бұрын

Is water wet?

@noway8233 24 күн бұрын

There is no spun

@ZechsMerquise195 24 күн бұрын

I really wish people weren't as enthusiastic about AI. The current AI's are black-box. So we really don't know how they work, just that they work. And I haven't seen anything that isn't just a really advanced version of Google Prompts text prediction. Yes, the technology has a lot of potential, but people are over-hyping it so much that it can only lead to disappointment. I only hope that once that bubble bursts and people come back down to earth about AI that more serious discussion about the implementation and use of AI will get a chance.

@javastream5015 24 күн бұрын

My personal experience with other algorithms is that they can be working bullshit. They work with three current tests data, but turn out to be bullshit. If this phenomenon wouldn’t be I would have solved P-NP long time ago.

@VegitoBlue202 24 күн бұрын

My only hype about AI is that it advanced more than I expected, despite that it's way too overhyped, AGI is far off still, I would say the late 2030's at the earliest and the 2050's as the most likely.

@ZechsMerquise195 24 күн бұрын

@@VegitoBlue202 Artificial General Intelligence? I would be really surprised if we see anything like that within the next 25 years.

@VegitoBlue202 24 күн бұрын

@@ZechsMerquise195 that's why I said late 2030's at the earliest, its extremely unlikely.

@seriouscat2231 23 күн бұрын

Exactly the opposite is true. We know how they work and that they don't.

@natsudragneel95240 23 күн бұрын

"Nevidia", lol

@kendi1417 24 күн бұрын

Anyone who understands computers/mathematics and how programming works would know AI is a great tool, but it is a tool that must be narrow in scope in order to function effectively. Anything that promises to mimic some kind of Star Trek-esque do anything tool is just selling you smoke and mirrors. A better name for it should be paragraph/pattern forming.

@thecryingsoul 23 күн бұрын

"We're not seeing bullshit AI companies" Are we really looking at the same internet?

@RemdiBrolton 23 күн бұрын

none of bullshit companys has huge value on the market

@thestuart117 24 күн бұрын

I wouldn't say it's an AI bubble, more of a energy bubble. A ChatGPT search takes 10x more power than a Google search, so unless the energy market expands at the same rate (with ESG concerns, it's seems unlikely), then AI will hit a wall

@Embassy_of_Jupiter 24 күн бұрын

At work we're trying to integrate AI with industry, but the main issues we ran into are that 1) industry is used to everything working perfectly 99.99% of the time, while AI works maybe 50% of the time 2) it's really hard to collect the domain data necessary to build said AI

@TheBooban 24 күн бұрын

It’s a brain. That it is “wrong” just proves how good it is. Something to fear for real.

@ShadowOfThePit 24 күн бұрын

@@TheBoobanlmao you are onto nothing (Unless I am missing some sarcasm, in which case shame on me)

@TheBooban 24 күн бұрын

@@ShadowOfThePit you just don’t understand. Like an infant. It’s wrong. But not really. Later, it won’t be wrong. It will just have another _opinion_

@ShadowOfThePit 24 күн бұрын

@@TheBooban hm, maybe you *are* onto something. Are you just saying that ai will improve?

@TheBooban 24 күн бұрын

@@ShadowOfThePit yes. That it is incorrect is the nature of AI. Humans also “incorrect”. It is a trademark of intelligence. If it was correct 100% of the time, it would not be intelligent.

@entertainmentyoutube3606 24 күн бұрын

I hope so, but it keeps impressing me with the next iteration

@ShaktiChaturvedi 24 күн бұрын

As it stands now, yes too much marketing hype. We dont even know whether we have started. AI has gone through several winters in the past.

@xNugYT 24 күн бұрын

Love this non biased content; great video TLDR!

@jamesau4296 7 күн бұрын

For real, the requirement of large amount of data for model training still post a big barrier for entry for start up

@downix 24 күн бұрын

Yes, and an absolutely unsustainable one. Nvidia currently has a market cap of 41:1 over revenue, far above the 10:1 I use as a Bubble identification guide.

@zachb1706 24 күн бұрын

It deserves a high PE ratio because of its massive earning potential

@downix 24 күн бұрын

@@zachb1706 so, you believe it will be the first company in history with revenue of a trillion dollars per year (the amount needed to support their market cap taking into account the cost of supporting that revenue, based on current revenue to profit ratios)? From where will this revenue come?

@RemdiBrolton 23 күн бұрын

but its cashflow is going to the moon.

@downix 23 күн бұрын

@RemdiBrolton an 11.48% increase is not "to the moon". It would have needed a 800% increase over the same period to validate the stock price. Even the most optimistic projections do not paint such a rosy picture.

@RemdiBrolton 23 күн бұрын

@@downix 11.48%? Free cash flow is +700% year to year quarterly

@phooogle 24 күн бұрын

It's En-Vidia not Nuh-vidia

@aamirchaka924 24 күн бұрын

🤓

@TomNook. 24 күн бұрын

Tomato tomayto

@phooogle 24 күн бұрын

@TomNook. That's not the same. This is like saying Steve is pronounced Steh-veh and that this is an OK way to say it which it is not.

@MatthewMS. 24 күн бұрын

Jensen created the name as a deviated of the word “Envy”. I could be wrong, but the irony in some of these comments and video should be noted. By me. I just did it. Bye 👋🏻😘.

@gaviswayze9696 24 күн бұрын

@@phoooglethat's hilarious, I'm now gonna start calling my friends named Steve with that pronunciation

@DeanKennyMusic 23 күн бұрын

Well researched video and solid points. well done!

@RamonChiNangWong078 24 күн бұрын

What did I as an old IT technician heared? Routers and I heared Ruthers? or Rawters?

@aenorist2431 24 күн бұрын

Of course. The actual economic use of AI is minimal, outside some specific areas (design simulation) and lots of scams and "internet content" which is inherently without value. For this it eats enormous ressources and even more electricity. Ought to slap a few hundred % extra tax on it, to at least mitigate the damage caused.

@Jack-he8jv 24 күн бұрын

its like the internet bubble, the internet is obvousily a big deal but the amount of money being thrown at it is obvousily insane.

@V.stones 24 күн бұрын

With around $250k to invest, what's your advice on entering the market? I'm considering replicating the strategies of experts instead of investing independently to avoid both financial losses and emotional stress.

@wehrine 24 күн бұрын

Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.

@sebastiaanthijn7982 24 күн бұрын

After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my 1.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.

@AliciaCrone 24 күн бұрын

I Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.

@rodgertim2881 24 күн бұрын

I started investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about 200,578 after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost 673,000

@christopherherbert2407 24 күн бұрын

Please who do you work with?

@hmbro3236 24 күн бұрын

It is absolutely a bubble, AI will be important but is very overvalued right now

@hungo7720 24 күн бұрын

Stock price is really volatile and not necessarily reflective of a conglomerate's robust revenues and profit margins. This is especially true for tech giants while their shares can proliferate and shrink steadily over a short period of time, most notably Tesla.

@musiccollections7850 24 күн бұрын

In order Nvidia bubble to happen its necessary condition is AI companies growth to stop, or to fail

@joshuahillerup4290 24 күн бұрын

Using expected earnings to predict a bubble isn't really a good idea, because that's still speculative. You should look at actual profits

@shroomer3867 18 күн бұрын

I feel that the discussion whether something is in a bubble is itself a sign that something is in a bubble. If it weren't we wouldn't be discussing that possibility and would be all for AI right now being everywhere and everyone would be rich since everyone would be pumping Nvidia. (impossible) Also bubbles can arise out of illogical or emotional means if we are talking about economy or stocks. All it takes is for a larger investor to withdraw their funds earlier than planned or expected and the whole bubble goes pop as everyone panics, no matter if the actual technology behind it had actual real potential or value.

@javastream5015 24 күн бұрын

People forget that there were multiple “AI winters’. Read again: multiple. So this bubble could end up in an AI winter again.

@carultch 23 күн бұрын

Look up "model collapse".

@darthnegativehunter8659 22 күн бұрын

argument one : - the way the AI is built limits it's capability to get better OR get repurposed. - the soar in the stocks price is not coming from an end user usage but rather investment. it's for HOPE that it would do well. not that it has already done well

@JamesSmith-uy3vs 21 күн бұрын

Investing is the key to financial freedom and wealth creation. I'm glad I entered the cryptocurrency world when I did because it has been a turning point for me financially and it has been my best decision so far.

@martinsriggs2441 21 күн бұрын

Bitcoin has been rising for a while and could continue rising or decide to fall again. The truth is that no one knows, I think it is the right time to make the purchase and also get the help of a professional.

@charleyluckey2232 21 күн бұрын

There are many RIAs out there, but finding someone you trust to help you seems to be a big problem. That's why working with Larry Kent Burton has been worth it so far. Larry doesn't hesitate and unlike most financial planners, he doesn't take advantage of people, but rather makes sure he serves them to the best of his ability.

@charleyluckey2232 21 күн бұрын

He's on Instagram ***

@charleyluckey2232 21 күн бұрын

@ Larry Kent Nick Trading ***

@riggsmartins4033 21 күн бұрын

Wow, he must be an experienced trader. The best way to approach the market in this era is to invest in your knowledge of the financial markets, the rest really depends on your decision making. Because everyone who says they know doesn't really know

@piccalillipit9211 24 күн бұрын

*YES ITS A BUBBLE* in technical terms $-->∞ as ∆P-->0 The cost per unit performance gain is astonishingly exponential.

@NistenTahiraj 10 күн бұрын

At the end of the day though, how many students and professionals do you know that are NOT using chatGPT at work...? So yeah investments can be overvalued, but the product's not going away. I think actually statistics of use at work were crazy high like over 78% of Americans, forgot the source that was posted on Peter Diamandis' feed.

@undercoverduck 24 күн бұрын

This topic warrants a two-parter, I think. One that argues that it is a bubble, and the other that argues it absolutely is not. This video could serve as an introductory middle ground. I've been keeping up with this topic as best I can, and there's only one thing I can say: there's a LOT more that can be delved into on either side of the argument.

@goauld88 8 күн бұрын

That's a creative way to pronounce Nvidia.

@CodeKali 10 күн бұрын

I like your double sided approach, it adds much more depth into it. It also appears realistic and reasonable.

@MasterWhimp 24 күн бұрын

I’t can’t really be a bubble since we are only just realising the potential and it seemingly has unlimited growth. It might be overvalued in the short term but when you think long term definitely not. That’s my opinion.

@robertparsons313 22 күн бұрын

I still see things labeled AI when all that it does is pattern recognition and a little spiced-up OCR.

@PursuitOfStrength. 13 күн бұрын

The simple fact of the matter is that nvidia is going to keep innovating , we are going through another industrial revolution, it’s not replacing the workforce , just training them more

@user-qi7xx5ih6z 9 күн бұрын

Train for what? Learning faster than AI?

@Edumt91 24 күн бұрын

Never heard of Nahvidia. What do they do?

@quentenburnett7296 9 күн бұрын

Yes we are. Just like how a few years ago we were in an NFT bubble, and before that a Bitcoin bubble. A few years before that we had a 3D TV bubble, and an "Internet of things" bubble. It all comes and goes.

@user-qi7xx5ih6z 9 күн бұрын

You don't explain why they ate similar. There are tons of things that have a boom and not burst because they actually provide value. Ai is extremely useful and unlike other useful techs like NFT, btc this is actually implemented in a diverse and accessible way to provide real value and not just speculative one.

@LeicaM11 6 күн бұрын

An Apple Macintosh sounded like a vacuum cleaner? Really?😂

@capnoddy1905 23 күн бұрын

For anyone knows about AI, the core component of AI is always the machine learning part. And ML has been there for many years. Even the so latest Deep Learning (e.g. ANN) has been studied and used for over 30 years. There is not doubt that with the new processors, the machine learning models will be more comprehensive. But it is TOTALLY NOT A NEW THING.

@Travlinmo 7 күн бұрын

I notice the bookshelf. Do you guys ever talk about recent excellent reads?

@jeruss00 13 күн бұрын

There will be a market correction. I realized the difference between the two.

@HablaConOwens 23 күн бұрын

I feel like it has another 2 years before it pops. Companies are currently working on product and services that they will try to capitalize on. I feel like we will find most of these IA things are not worth it.

@JagaimoNeko 9 күн бұрын

4:00 I would argue with this statement...

@mfrfpv9079 23 күн бұрын

I hope so video card prices are ridiculous 😢

@threepac 21 күн бұрын

I don’t think you’re asking the right question. “Is it a bubble?”, question has been answered due the amount of investment in the sector. Yes, it’s a bubble. The question we all should be asking is when it will burst. Which no one seems to know yet.

@BRBallin1 23 күн бұрын

It will eliminate a lot of the clerical work that isn't nuanced and is straightforward but beyond that it will not replace humans. In fact it might make them smarter and think more emotionally and creatively which no AI can ever replace.

@wile123456 24 күн бұрын

Big Data was the bubble no one talks about that mimics the exact same trends as AI

@paulanderson2963 15 күн бұрын

I have my crochet needle ready

@cpm1003 7 күн бұрын

Everything will keep getting worse and worse for the rest of our lives.

@Huru_ 22 күн бұрын

lol what's that clip of Jensen cooking GPUs from?

@Shini1984 14 күн бұрын

- It's not a bubble if three people own 90% of the market and trade between each other at ever increasing prices! - But what if one of them quits?

@user-qi7xx5ih6z 9 күн бұрын

The two others will just increase their market share. Nobody like having competitors or necessary partners to depend on.

@yboumaiza7 9 күн бұрын

No bullsh*t companies? AI Pinned devices: Hold my beer

@KatharineOsborne 23 күн бұрын

LLMs are potentially in a bubble and overhyped, but LLMsAI. But we haven’t seen the full potential of LLMs yet, especially when combined with other AI technologies, so the LLM bubble might not pop anytime soon.

@magfal 24 күн бұрын

Depends heavily on whether we can eliminate hallucinations or not.

@daniel_tenner 24 күн бұрын

We hallucinate too. How do we deal with it? Externally, we peer review each other’s output. Call that feedback, comments, friends, the legal system, whatever. We have a myriad ways to deal with people hallucinating the “wrong” kinds of stuff. If they hallucinate really badly in the wrong direction we put them in jail. If they hallucinate really badly in the right direction we call them artists and give them a lot of money to carry on. Internally, we deal with our hallucinations by recursing over our own thoughts, evaluating the output of our internal LLM as it goes out. This is harder than it seems, because you have to evaluate the output, but also evaluate the evaluation, etc, infinitely recursing. And we do this instantaneously all the time. That’s hard to replicate. Current LLM technology doesn’t do that and I don’t know how long it will take, but probably not more than a couple years, imho.

@Archi-rs1yt 24 күн бұрын

line brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📈📈📈💰💰💰

@aurious5821 24 күн бұрын

I would argue AGI could warrant this degree of investment and excitement but not what we have now

@samuelsharp2342 23 күн бұрын

Can we also start calling it weak AI, as it is by no means a true AI. This is like when they jumped the gun with 5g when they said we have 5g but none of them actually hit the actual technological standard, but this is more extreme.

@kingmj87 17 күн бұрын

The AI Bubble is coming, but the Processor Bubble in ANTICIPATION of an AI Bubble is what’s being mistaken for an AI Bubble right now.

@kenkessler301 21 күн бұрын

AI and automation with robotics will inevitably force major changes in the economy the only question is how long it will take. People are already losing jobs in mass becuase one person can now do the work of ten in certain fields

@readysetmoses 16 күн бұрын

Law of Headlines in effect here for sure

@ralphmubs6684 22 күн бұрын

You're wrong about the no BS company. Tons of startups making poor products, remember the Humane IA pin ?

@Remie1529 24 күн бұрын

Yes we are

@mikatu 23 күн бұрын

nvidia is currently trading 63x its earnings.... if that is not a bubble I don't know what is! you would require 63 years only to recover what you paid for the company.

@nlinchmc9509 24 күн бұрын

The graph at 4:50 should have a baseline of 0 or 1. I don’t know how far it would influence perception, but I see no reason why the lowest value from those two statistics should be taken as the baseline.

@LeoDas688 24 күн бұрын

If We can focus all over effort on AI, then maybe the expectation can be realised after all

@PainandSorrow 10 күн бұрын

I think there will be a sharp pullback followed by another rally. Once companies start seeing cost savings from A.I. in their balances sheets, as well as figure out ways to monetize it, A.I. will go to Pluto by 2030, and Nvidia sells 80% of the rocketships.

@user-qi7xx5ih6z 9 күн бұрын

Once? It's already happening. A friend works in sales from call center and the company trains a chat model with his data.

@brycejohansen7114 23 күн бұрын

I think it could have something to do with the Data. You can't expect exponential growth with a finite resource like Data. Look at the Google AI results with the "glue on pizza" response after it combed the internet for training data. AGI might not be as easily obtainable as we might have thought.

@davidioanhedges 23 күн бұрын

AI in its current state is useful, and given some time will become more so, but is being overhyped as a marketing buzzword, and so there will be an associated bubble

@ignoreme1141 4 күн бұрын

No, we aren't. Consider the valuations and PE ratios you saw during 90s boom, 2008 and now and you will see we are WAAAY more conservative with our estimates in 2024. It's far from a bubble like the ones we've had before.

@GrumpDog 16 күн бұрын

Thinking AI is just a "bubble" or "hype" is a symptom of "Future Shock", which futurists predicted people living through this time, would feel.

@HaroldTheWizardCat 15 күн бұрын

I'm just annoyed I didn't have the money to invest in Nvidia in 2022

@matthewrichardson2533 19 күн бұрын

Yes. It doesn't mean ai's worthless, it's just MOST of tge companies raising money off ai claims that won't bring returns will tank.

@darksars3622 24 күн бұрын

I hope so

@oscar9558 23 күн бұрын

Layers upon layers of lies and illusions, that's what so called evaluations are.

@sunnohh 23 күн бұрын

Considering it basically doesn’t work and they are using it for everything… yeah

@EcomCarl 23 күн бұрын

It's important to balance the transformative potential of AI with realistic assessments of market valuations to navigate this dynamic landscape effectively. 💡

@paultopping7413 24 күн бұрын

AI seems to be delivering better and quicker than some previous ’break through technology’ for example a couple of years ago all anybody talked about was 5G and yet here we are I have a 5G phone and a 5G contract and I’ve only ever seen a 5G signal on my phone once and when I did a Speedtest it wasn’t any faster than 4G!