Great video, thank you very much!

Tobias , you are a valued asset with huge momentum

Baseball is the only game to bet for one very simple reason:It is the only game on which you can wager-in most cases-before knowledge out of the outcome of the previous game and what transpired in that game. You have now learned more about sports betting than you have ever learned in entire life to this point.

for people who do not understand the literature. This guy is reasoning by analogy, so not deductive anyway

i watched this a couple times and just want to understand if i am correct, so the momentum factor causes assets to be over valued and has little predictibility on actual returns, which means shorting mometum assets are profitable? while value is the exact opposite and buying value assets are profitable?

Tobias mentions in his speech that the results are independent of each other. I would argue that this is a false statement. The results of one game highly effect the results of the next on two separate psychological planes. A loss affects a team's psychology. A playoff bound team has the heart of a lion and takes losses very personally. For example, look at how many times the New England Patriots (NFL) have lost 2 games in a row in the last 10 years. It is a very rare occurrence. Now contrast that with a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars who are awful and they know it. A team like this will lose several in a row. However, since they know they have absolutely no shot of making the playoffs their psychology changes when playing a playoff bound team. That game becomes more meaningful for them. The spreads are usually very large in favor of the favorite team and the underdog plays the game much harder and usually covers the spread. The second plane is the psychology of the public. The public inherently likes to follow the favorites. This pushes the spreads until they get burned. They then back off and the bookies must lower the spreads to get them to back them again. This causes bubble patterns. They are so fast most of the time that they can not be recognized for what they are, but every once in a while a team comes along that demonstrates this idea perfectly. Look at the 2007 Patriots and you will witness the perfect bubble. The team was crushing all opponents early in the season. The public jumped on the bandwagon and were rewarded during the first half of the season. With each consecutive win the spreads got larger. Meanwhile the other teams are working diligently to figure out how to bring this juggernaut down. The bubble officially burst in week 12 when they face the Eagles as -24 point favorites. They only won by 3. The Giants get the credit for finally taking them down in the Superbowl, but it was the Eagles that cracked the code and laid out the model that all other teams would follow to try and beat them. The public was very slow to back off from the Patriots so the point spread were slow to come down. The results against the spread were that the Patriots only covered one more game for the rest of the season. These results were hardly independent from each other. They were highly correlated. The psychology of the teams and the public being slow to react created the perfect bubble. I posit that this is not an anomaly but actually how the spreads and odds operate. They depend on these bubbles to maintain balance between favorites and underdogs. The belief that these are independent trials like spinning a roulette wheel or rolling dice is completely false. They are the exact opposite... ...highly correlated.

who is the genius with the camera?

Chews the cud too much... but interesting stuff :-)

ivory tower speech?

It's not that difficult.. Wait for an advantage.

He makes an egregious error in saying that spreads and moneylines are uncorrelated to totals.

I don't understand this video. but I can pick winners, so I don't need to. The great Dane.

There are a few components to betting systems. One resource I found which successfully combines these is the Simple Sports Goldmine (google it if you're interested) definately the most helpful system that I have ever heard of.Check out all the interesting information .

Nothing liked being introduced by colleague and same ethnic background.