Discussion: Does the Vasily-Bykov ship with a Tor strapped to the deck constitute a Technical?

That Lukashenko map was only accurate in case Kiev would have surrendered, which was the goal in the first few weeks. It didnt work, so those connected plans were obviously scrapped too. You can pretty much say that him "leaking" it was part of the strategy to terrify Kiev into a surrender.

I suspect that Russia abandoned the island because the risks involved in resupplying the garrison weren't worth the advantage of holding it. With this said, I believe it will become no man's land until talks happen, and then who knows who will ultimately own this rock

12:10 it was also exceptionally effective in the Nagorno-Karabakh war

1:05 a little bit of a correction: the Moskva wasn't the flagship of the whole Russian navy.

This island is completely indefensible no matter who has it. There are conventional munitions whose blast radius is all of Snake Island.

I appreciate this. Your videos are extreemly well put together. I've learned a lot from your channel and I look forward to more.

Another excellent program, as always. I hope others get as much out of your programs as I do, they're very informative. please keep up the good work, it's always good to learn something new from a reliable source.

Nice piece. Enjoyed the analysis. Seems to me that it is an island that everyone wants for good reasons, but makes an occupant a big target for modern weapons if they actually step onto the terrain at this point in the war.

I voted on the poll, went to bed, and woke up with a new video to watch?! The turn around time is amazing, it's almost like you were a Swedish Gripen in human form

An unscripted H I Sutton gives more structured and complete information then most scripted sources in my opinion. It's about knowing your topic. (Anecdote: Back in school (I was about 14) I had forgotten my script for a history subject I was supposed to present. Told my teacher about it and asked if she wanted me to present it anyway but without the exact years since I didn't remember them good enough or if I should give it at a later day. I'm guessing she thought I hadn't done it yet and tried to get away with it so she asked me to do it anyway. Well this time I had done it. Afterwards she gave me credit to a very good presentation way above my usual level. All down to the simple fact that I knew the topic and skipped the details that wasn't clear in my memory.)

16:40 official statement from Zaluzhnyi says that 2S22 Bohdana with some western long range ammunition has been used for shelling island. There have been also several videos of it.

Thank you for not having cheesy background music.

Wish you all a nice weekend!

Snake Island does not have an EEZ. Romania and Ukraine argued over if it is a proper island or a rock, and a sort of compromise verdict was reached in the International Court of Justice where Snake Island has territorial waters, but no EEZ.

10:30 Anybody else triggered by the fact that the small hexagons are oriented differently than the zoomed-in ones? :D

Very informative, thank you Mr. Sutton

a small island like this is unsustainable to hold, anything on it is an easy target, and there is minimal benefit to keeping it, if russia decides to end it and negotiate terms, they could send a small force to claim it again.

can you please make a video about the Virginia class sub i keep hearing its so successful but i didnt notice much difference from the others other than it has a lower test depth witch seems like a disadvantage a video explaining what im missing here would be cool

(16:45) It's not just speculation, there's footage showing the Caesar firing towards the island with the TB2 observing and correcting the artillery, as the first shot landed in the water next to the island.

Thank you for the video!

this is awesome content, thanks

The “miss” appeared to me to hit without detonating and skipped into the sea

i think lukasheno did that on purpose or russians gave him wrong war plan. somebody pointed out that naval landing are messy and maybe that plan was never really serious and they always wanted to advance via land. but if you want opponent to keep part of military at different place its nice to show that plan by accident

Some info about this little rock called "snake island" - for many of those, ignorant, who comment here about the "value" of this rock - sadly, mr Sutton also made some silly claims. Is a VERY SMALL piece of land : 690m x 680m ! Usable is just some 500m x 500m ! You cannot put a battery of S300 there because you simply do NOT have enough space ! A single battery of S300 have several launchers, a command unit, a radar unit, and several resupply trucks. That is, a dozen of BIG trucks, and you need a decent distance between them in order to operate. You DO NOT have that space in this little rock. Conventional arty rounds have a blast area who easily can cover all this area, and I not even talk about missiles. Very easy to defeat, very costly and very hard to defend. Strategic value in case of war - next to ZERO.

Are there no sea mines preventing grain shipments?

awesome a new video waited for it and now it is here =)

Excellent analysis and explanation, thanks!!

the only OSI that i watch :) well done sir for keeping it objective & impartial.

Are you sure it's not a battery of 2S7 Pion's that hit the Island, as it has larger shells and a longer range than a CAESAR. Edit : they used an indigenous type of missile system a updated version of the BM-30

Thanks I enjoyed that analysis

Thank you for the explanation.

Sir. ¡Requesting a video! on the only Ukrainian submarine Zaporizhzhia. It has a very juicy corruption scandal regarding the batteries.

Nicely done as always. I'm wondering where you find all this information. I've been trying to find credible info for myself but don't really know where to start, do you (or anyone else) have any tips for where to look. Thanks in advance!

I think one of the other things is they probably used it to soak up Ukrainian air assets, judging by past performance of especially Pantsir, a lot of drones will have been lost in that operation, it's most likely why they started using artillery instead due to the loss of air assets and then that's why once Ukraine started using Artillery they left as there was no benefit.

Love ur unscripted videos 👍...pls keep um coming sir.

Very studiously avoided reminding anyone that America gave lattitude/longitude, bearing, and speed of Moskba to the Ukrainians. It was what I suspected long before Washington admitted it. I considered the fact the TB2 "just happened to be there" just a bit too convenient an explaination. Like one of Churchill's "bodyguard of lies".

I really enjoy Mr Sutton's discussions!

Very informative video.

You take as a true fact very fast that a red painted cargo is burning in the sea as an obvious victim of an attack from Russia.

There is no strategic value on Snake Island. it can be deleted quickly with not much effort.

Great discussion of the recent events!

It doesn't look like there's anywhere that would be accessible to a Cesar SPG system within range of snake island (assuming the published figures for the range of the Cesar are correct 42/50km).

Year update a good idea or no? Has much changed?

Nice to see some better informed comment on this topic.

I have enjoyed your videos and appreciate your efforts; somehow your professionalism just conveys a bit more believability than some of the other stuff that is floating around. I'm subscribed, I like, comment and try to share - I hope that helps. Keep up the good work!! May I add a couple of points about your channel / philosophy? I know very few creators appreciate feedback on their channel - but I tried to find your email at your about page but not there. So - here goes - you can delete as you wish. May I suggest you check out these other creators? They too, chosen because YT is NOT their main thing. One Denys Davydov is a Captain on a 737 but cannot fly due to the war. He does daily reports - close to live - unscripted - like yours. But - he does NOT apologize for it being draft or off-the-cuff. You can see he does amazing coverage (of daily battle updates) from various slides and live maps. He's now got a heat-map that shows active AO's. Impressive. But - I note his site - because Denys has really 'branded himself' he's got a slick title-slide that's not often click-baity, he DOES appear in front of the camera - which everyone likes. (I do not visit sites without narration - and yours - is one of the few - without a view of the speaker, that I do still follow). Watch a few episodes of Denys and you'll see he has his outro DIALLED. We've teased him but now it's the same every day. (And he often releases two - or more - videos on a single day!) " I wish you Peaceful-Skies', wherever you are... and, have a nice time! " He's got an income stream from his Patreon and people are sending him money (he gives HALF to others / charities. YT revenue is NOT to be sent to army stuff so he sends other money to them) But - I pass it on - because people love him - no apology for it NOT being written... He jokes of his mispronunciations - and we help him with that too. (He says Heeemers instead of HighMars - but it's cute! He corrected himself when he said the Moskva was "drowned" by Ukraine - but I think so many pointed out how 'cute' that is and he's since gone back to reporting "Drowned ruzzian vezzels' - I love it! Another guy to check out kzfaq.info Jake Broe. Wow. Another guy - (ex US-silo-operator) had a finance channel but it is so related to the war stuff - that he pivoted - shares his thoughts and knowledge about military stuff, stocks and common sense and his channel too - is a pleasure to watch. Same thing - he DOES appear in front of the camera - does a great job of annotating a plethora of added in data (so his stuff is vetted in front of your eyes) does great analysis, has a great sign on (complete with hand-gestures not many notice), has a great out-tro and has fabulous pics for his episodes. Jake has even shown his channel analytics and revenue - and explains why he pivoted from pure finance to war coverage (as you pivoted from subs to more general miliatary stuff) and borne out by views, likes and revenue! Last one - operator Starsky. kzfaq.info. Another guy - hides his true identity because he is active Ukraine Army Press Agent - this is his allowed side-show bt he too - strong accent - all done in front of camera - a true active military guy - sense of humour - articulate - witty! kzfaq.info These guys have all, created, or quintupled their subscriber base, views and of course revenue - AS THEY HELP SPREAD THE TRUTH. And I love and support them all. In short - stop apologizing for extemporaneous delivery and come out in front of the camera. Best to you Sir! Continued success.

Why didn't they capture the island years ago? They could have massively reinforce, build bunkers that would make it largely invulnerable to anything other than a large amphibious assault...which Ukraine can't do?

I look forward to your video's, they are based on logic and facts.

Nice, I Like

The Moskova: She Understood the Assignment

Pure theorising on my part but what would happen if Ukraine “loaned” snake island to Romania? Would they be able to mine sweep and escort grain ships to the Bosphorus Straight?

good job 👏👏

Russia still got sea real estate. All Azov Sea plus some parts in Black Sea. The land from Crimean border to Dniprovska Gulf is controlled by them. More than 200 Km of shoreline with additional water. Is visible even here at min 9:00. That part in Azov Sea is gone and half of the Ukrainian Black Sea

3:33 Yessir; And, with control of both Crimea and Snake Island, Russia can (theoretically, anyway) completely blockade the entire Ukrainian seaboard.

17:57 Russia 🇷🇺 military learnt in the WW2 to stretch the enemies resources every where with many diversionary attacks.

Can you please do a video about turkey stm 500 concept i didn't expect such small sub to have that much capability specially compared to 206 and fatih class subs

_Some nice looking climbing routes_

Can Ukraine interdict shipping from the island or do they not have any reasonable way to get heavy machinery there? Missiles fired at a small, dug in garrison on the island are missiles not fired at civilians or more valuable targets. That could be part of the calculus of reoccupying it.

20:54 that is a naval su-33 carrier jet not the later 30. You can tell by its canards head of the main wings leading edge, only the naval carrier flanker.

Obligatory comment for the algorithm

Lukashenko is quite the sock puppet

Could a neutral or UN mission occupy the island in order to help maintain open shipping lanes?

Great overview thanks - interesting about oil & gas platforms which Russia stole .. also Russia claims of exclusion zone ...they are sooo cheeky ....

Hi H.i., I called Snake 🐍 Island 🏝️, Little Taiwan.

I was told today that the United States has no good defender against submarines. Because I live in Sweden and was told that the USA and Sweden had military exercises, and that Swedish submarines could enter unnoticed outside the US twice.

So thankful for your content and analysis.... That Subbrief guy has gotten fatter and lazy lately... All he does is play stupid video games.... Please dont let us down!!

@HISuttonCovertShores >>> 👍👍

tb2 also destroyed russian helicopter that was landing at snake island and strela mounted aa vehicle. theres footages of those attacks.

Technically, a harpoon stationed on snake island can shoot at ships coming straight out of sevastopol.

The correct translation is Skank Island. The island has sum high end strip clubs.

best analysis so fat about that strange rock

So now Zelensky has to demine the port and shipping lane to Odessa. I guess he's now responsible for holding up shipments of grain, etc. Gotta disagree about Russia giving up ALOT by leaving Snake Island.

My wife is a bag of snakes

Edit : there are people in the comments lying about the equipment, please look it up before blindly liking it because we are on NATO's side here. You will see that they spreading false information. Also HIMARS is unlikely to be more accurate than a BM-30 which has guided rockets as much as people responding pretend don't exist, as it uses the missiles from the M270, which is a contemporary system to the BM-30, but at that time Russia had a lot more experience with rocket artillery, well on another scale really BM-30 has guided rockets like the M270. The Caesar is obviously more accurate because artillery in general is more accurate than mutiple rocket launchers, however the 2S7 Pion has a longer range, than a Caesar, and judging by the size of the damage from a shot that feels more like 203mm not 155mm.

Heres the real question: why is it called snake island??

I suppose by holding it there was a threat to civilian shipping even if no threat systems on it

For the canon which has bombarded the Island it's the Bogdana 2S22, it's look like a Caesar but it's an ukrainian canon :)

16:00 You spelt "Caesar" wrong.

Lol the Ruskies actually strap a SAM vehicle to the ship? That is new for me. 😂

It was mentioned thet the island was shelled by an Ukrainian indigenous Bogdan artillery system. It was a prototype made for export, so it uses NATO calibre. And supposedly the shells with a gas generator made it possible. Don't know how true is that though.

Sutton destroying his credibility for Ukranian propaganda, quite sad!

Do you think Ukraine started using artillery because it lost too many air assets trying to take the island?

Snake Island is a rock. So, whoever occupies it can dig into the rock to create defensible military positions, as the British di at Gibraltar. Regards, Geoff. Reeks

The submarine expert is back again. Like and share if you're with me.

2:42 doesn't the Crimea were under control of Russia since Soviet Union collapse?

I like the "Tor strapped to helipad" bit. What happened Russia, has your naval anti air capacity been degraded in some fashion? How did that happen? 🤣

So you think the so called siege of Kiev was real too? I don't think so.

Watch Romania take Snake Island since there's so much turmoil.

@11:25 i stll have problems with identifying that shot as the Moskva. there seems to be a lot of superstructure missing(?)

Missed out lots of attempts and failures on the other side too from your video? Best to give both sides?

Why can't they detect and intercept these drones? Drones like that have been in use for many many years.

Those men will be immortalized in legends in the future.

I wonder how those TOR systems handle the ships moving about? Surely that would have some bearing on it's abilities? Also anyone know what the state of Russian satellite is? I wonder if they could stick a harpoon on a flanker or a frogfoot or something to enable it to be launched from standoff? Lots of questions I have lol. Cheers for the insights.

No subs?

After this war is over, Ukraine should give permission to NATO to station a base on Snake island in order to protect international shipping in the area, and make sure Russia never threatens the world again.

11:00 Ukraine 🇺🇦 has less weaponry than developing countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar and many African and South American countries Shocking, they should have at least have mass produced large calibre 'dumb artillery '. They had the know how and previous Soviet industry. They sat on their hands ✋ for 8 years. Where is their 'wheat export' money. Their leader, Zelensky, is an actor 👏 . A pure drama . (not taking sides )

according to Russian military they took the island in order to bait ukrainian helicopters and drones. during the occupation of the island ukraine lost a lot of attack helicopters, planes, and dones by attempts made to recature the island. during that time ukraine had no way of hitting the island from odessa. after the united states sent them missile systems capable of reaching the island and ukraine missiles started to reach the island it was not worth for russia to stay there anymore. also if you think russia sent 20,000 troops to take kiev then you dont understand strategy. the troops that were sent to kiev were sent there to keep a lot of ukrainian troops there while the russian troops moved in donbass, after the russian troops settled in the russian troops in kiev left and joined donbas. yes russia took loses in kiev but their objective was achieved. most of the info you are pushing comes from western narratives and western media.

Hello Mr. Sutton. I appreciate the valuable information that you give us. But I have an unpopular opinion about Moskva sinking: I don't buy it for a second that Ukraine managed to jamm the radar system on that ship all by itself and then hit it without Russians on board or other ships or radars around it noticing anything (I don't say that you said so, this is a widespread claim on internet that I know is propaganda). Yes a Neptune hit to the side of those P-700 canisters can blow them up easily and sink the ship. But how comes that a ship with one of the best AA and radars in the world got destroyed so easily??? I don't buy the corruption theory on this one a single bit. I think all those NATO AWACS and jamming planes flying over Romanian airspace blinded the ship and the in a co-ordinated operation with Ukrainians, they managed to hit the ship where it hurts. Correct me if I'm wrong

I think you completely forgot the point that long range air defense systems like the S300 on the island would cover a big part of the southern ukraine (and moldova) and they could create a very important no fly zone across that area and all along the ukrainian coastline.

Hah. The start of the fall of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. I’m serious. Been looking at weapons ranges.