YES, VOTE BLUE

Vote trump. The democrats are the biggest threat to democracy in america. Free speech is the bedrock of democracy.

We will

I'm now 1,000% voting TRUMP

Vote Blue💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙

Polls don't matter. He's right.

@@reneerednour3951 you wish 😂

they're undependable.

Well Biden is losing his mind by the day so if he’s the nominee when Election Day comes around, it won’t be good for him.

​@@reneerednour3951 I can give you five big polling misses from point-blank range: * In 1936, the final Gallup poll predicted FDR would defeat Alf Landon by 11.4 points - FDR won by 24.26 points, winning every state except Maine and Vermont in the process, for an error of 12.86 points. * In 1948, the final poll (in October!) had Tom Dewey beating Harry Truman by five points - despite a certain headline, Truman beat Dewey by 4.48 points, for an error of 9.48 points. * In 1952, the final poll had Dwight Eisenhower beating Adlai Stevenson by two points in a close contest - Ike beat Stevenson by 10.85 points in a blowout, for an error of 8.85 points. * In 1980, the final poll had Ronald Reagan beating Jimmy Carter by 2.5 points in another close contest - Reagan easily beat Carter by 9.74 points, for an error of 7.24 points. * In 2012, the final poll had Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama by one point, and the election was billed as down-to-the-wire: Obama beat Romney by 3.86 points, for an error of 4.86 points. In fact, the 1980 polling being so far off was part of the reason behind Allan and the late Vladimir Keilis-Borok's creation of the 13 Keys.

Damn good quote!! Almost as good as "You can't love your country only when you win!"

It’s about how good your ideas are

His ideas are as old as his ideas. A man who is to old in the eyes of 80% of american, how can he win the presidentiel nomini.

@@jenskruse1475 "his ideas are as old as his ideas." Umm okay? Sorry Mr. bot, Sorry Mr. Bot, Biden is going to win reelection and keep bleeding the Russian economy dry!!!

@@jenskruse1475Simple, the other guy is worse.

I have - Simon says that Trump and his Grand Old Party are going to lose big in November, and he has also made mention of Allan Lichtman a few times.

Lichtmann predicted it first.... and a lot of people predicted it.... Rosenberg was far from being the only one

​@@StephenKershaw1so most likely Biden will win right

@@edwingarcia9626 apparently.... I don't make predictions personally

​@@edwingarcia9626 Based on Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys To The White House - noting Allan has not made a final prediction yet - barring a cataclysmic change of events, Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump and win re-election.

Yep, everyone thought Hillary would win and now they are not paying attention again!

Any two other candidates would make more sense - but in these two we have the makings of the perfect storm.

It is very sick for a great technologically advanced nation to end up with two OLD men in the ballot. There is no reason I will vote for any of the two evils. Free Palestine.

I agree.

@@nikthefix8918 I wish it could have been RFK Jr facing off Vivek or DeSantis. Not just geezers that need to retire face off again squared.

Putin made secret deal with Moscow Mitch GOP & Wayne LaPierre NRA in Russia w Trump for 6 months before Russia/Putin Hacked ‘16 Election That’s what went wrong.

The 1 major thing that went wrong was the Electoral College. In every democracy outside the US she would've become President because the majority of the people voted for Hillary. Most voters didn't vote for 🍊🥳 ever, not in 2016, not in 2020. 🍊🥳 is loud but a loser.

Lichtman predicted Trump in '16.

Thats because James comely interfered and helped the Orange Mousolini

Yes it was called Hilary

Nope; he’s been wrong before.

Nope, you're wrong, he has never been wrong.

@@TryNSave Nope, he's always been 100% correct... hasn't been incorrect yet...if you're referring to 2000.... his prediction was proven true when it came out Gore won both the popular and electoral vote. if you're uninformed and ignorant, keep your mouth shut son

@@TryNSavetechnically he has but he argues that was on a technicality. His prediction for 2000 was correct but the courts ruled in the opponent’s favor. Doesn’t factor in court proceedings.

@@iangoldman4003 Point being, he’s not infallible, and his hesitation to offer a decision is very, very telling.

U got no choice, putin won everything , this is a desperate channel

“Putins pal” What an embarrassment Wake up

@@bb5979 He certainly is. With the fake tan.

@@Dicky104 I thought it was more like Putains puppy.

The FEC fined both Hillary's 2016 campaign and the DNC for lies about the bogus Dossier they funded, the same baseless Dossier made by Igor Danchenko who was arrested by the FBI years ago and charged with five counts of lying about his fake "russia russia russia" sources, also the same FBI that happily used that Dossier to illegally spy on and investigate Trump's campaign/administration. It's been like nearly +7 years and these delusional dummies in the comments will always believe Trump is a Russia/Putin puppet because the evidence which proves them wrong hurts their echo chamber, they are hopeless, it's best to just laugh at their TDS 😂😂

😂😂😂😂

Wash it down with child-scented, cracked chocolate Biden icecream- (he’s got an awful lot you know). Can be delivered to your door. 85,000 happy customers last year alone. Creepy Joe the P.dough’s choice

putin endorsed biden .

@@samsmith8415 ..... because he knows that if he does, you people will immediately side with Trump.

@nyniuni the grocery store had me siding with trump.

Well, some things actually: the unemployment rate is at record low and the high inflation has been cut down to 3.1% which is really good considering he took over during the pandemic. He has a record numver on total job creation during a term. If he gets re-elected he will go down as the president with the most jobs created which should mean a lot. The CHIPS and Science act is great for promoting subsidies to Chip manufacturers. The infrastructure bill he passed has also been very good (look at La Guardia its nice now for example) Now Im not gonna say that was him but rather his administration since its hard to believe that with his age he is the one with the hand in the wheel at this point.

He has done NOTHING in his 50 years in office! Oh wait, he DID vote to tax Social Security checks!

If you don't know you haven't been paying attention 🙄

Joe is sane. He understands America & democracy. He'll talk to Republicans & work with some....

@kenwalker687 Has power to open border. But somehow losses that power to change back because.......?

What? This is just people giving their bias opinion. It's clear Biden is seen as a joke

democracy = High Inflation

What story? They interviewed Lichtman who says he can't predict who'll win because things are "too fluid" right now

Yes. Everything hinges on getting Senile Uncle Joe out of there.

Biden isn't just going to win. Dems are going to dominate. It's not even going to be close! Presidency, House, and Senate are Dems. Republicans are going to be shut out of power for several election cycles! So, get out there and vote!

You want a president that let's 10 million unvetted people into the country, and a president that flew in 350,000 migrants to lower the statistics at the border? And a president that uses the DOJ to take away their political rivals money?

Yep. I'll be keeping my fingers permanently crossed for the rest of the year.

Me too

Actually it was over before it begun.. As soon as Trump secure the nomination, watch the polls begin to change in Biden favor.. Of course Trump will cry out, fake polls lol

you do realise Trump spoke out against that ban right? also this is not significant even if he did support it.

@@golagiswatchingyou2966it’s significant that he did not support it.

@@golagiswatchingyou2966 doesn't matter... it's his fault and a lot of Americans will see it that way, he surrounded himself with extremists and extremists things are happening

If Americans could read, Project 2025 would wake them up to what Ttump is.

why not

The difference being a juror is forced against their will to be a juror and will likely have a hatred of the judicial system so will either go AWOL as they do not fear the consequences already having previous convictions, vote innocent no matter what, or try and find a way out of the jury. No judge will want to put someone like that on a jury. They want sheeps that fear and obey authority, that will want to snitch on people no matter how minor their offence and will do what they're told. You cannot compare doing jury duty to running for president.

That is because only the US Constitution the Supreme Law of the Land can set forth the qualifications for the Presidency and a felony is not mentioned a disqualification.

Amen

I can’t wait till Trump is reelected

That’s not true. There are jurors with felony convictions.

He is definitely on top of his game.

What color is the sky on the planet you're from?

I don’t see color I’m am tarded.

Must have gotten into Hunter stash.

His amphetamine injection peaked at the right time, but resulted in him looking like the angry old man sinking into dementia that he is.

I hope you are right he is our only hope for a good future

@BOOTBOSS1 you know Robert Kennedy jr, his uncle President John F Kennedy came out from nowhere and became the President of the United States 🇺🇸 it's because President John F Kennedy brang unity for our country, the same forum with Robert Kennedy jr 👏 my vote will be Kennedy.

No, vote is still impottant

It matters very much because high turnouts favor Democrats. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are battle ground states.

Exactly! 😫🙏🏾

Biden is a terrible president. He can’t even speak fluently.

make it happen. vote fro chrst sake

We absolutely know who trump is this time around. He gets no benefit of the doubt. People need to make their vote count by getting out and voting so we can save our country from tyranny. Vote blue, end the nightmare. Joe will get the job done. With trump we are done.

Go 🇺🇲 Trump 2024

Trump 2024 New York for Trump

Joe will get what job done, killing more people with wars? That job? @@johnhanley9098

God help us if we get stuck with Biden

?

​@@Edward45-fj2gdHold onto your Maga hat then

​@@Edward45-fj2gdBecause your pathetic life would improve and you wouldn't know what to blame for your insecurities?

If we get stuck with the vegetable for another 4 years, we’re doomed.

I hope he gets out of power soon! He has a horrendous plan.

I'm almost certain you're being sarcastic. You must know the DNC won't let Biden stand for nomination.

You've always been asleep.

@@sonofsomerset1695 lol

Likewise brother! 💪💙💙💙

He means that he made the prediction for the 1984 election as early as 1982.

​@@jacksonmadison9994 He also predicted a 2008 Dem victory in March 2006, since the wheels completely fell off during the second term of George W. Bush. Ultimately, the GOP finished with an equal-record nine false keys in 2008 (four of these came courtesy of disasterous stalemates in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a massive recession during the election campaign).

And that's *less* than the uncommitted vote against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Michigan primary.

​@@AbbeyRoadkill1100,000 is not a lot?

Biden 2024 💙🇺🇸

Obama’s uncommitted vote in 2012 was 10% for context… media is blowing this out of proportion.

@@Joaopereira-dh3dw It is a lot less than the 624,000 that voted for Biden. And most of those 100,000 will still vote for Biden in the general because they are not self-indulgent idiots.

It would probably need to be different system. His is based off of over 100 years of US history, and is also subject to the quirky way in which we elect our Presidents. Better yet would be a British professor crafting such a system, but merely consulting Allan

The UK doesn't have regular elections like the US

​@@Q.O.V.P. Yes, but I have incorporated the ideas of the keys to various elections around the world, and they have held up quite well. Incumbency and charisma keys are not as significant, as there is no president in a parliamentary system. Same thing with midterm, primary contest, and third party keys. However, the economic, foreign policy, domestic policy, social unrest, and scandal keys are more applicable. Currently, the Conservative party has control, but has been responsible for some serious failures. Inflation and economic troubles brought on by Brexit, the Boris Johnson scandals, and general covid craziness, makes it look pretty grim for the Conservatives. Same thing happened in New Zealand. Labor presided over a lot of chaos. The last straw was probably Jacinda Ardern's resignation, as without leadership, Labor could not eek out a victory. Party infighting, inflation, the ferries breaking down, unpopular covid measures, social unrest, and lots of other general issues also occurred prior to the election. In fact, only three "democratic" governments that I can think of survived Covid: Turkey, Iran, and France. The majority of others, like the US, Germany, Brazil, New Zealand, the Philippines, and many more, all lost due to similar global crises.

@@quinnjackson9252 everybody knows that bad economy, recession, raging inflation etc, favour the change of administration, the keys are only impressive because, for decades, they have accurately predicted which person will become president. The way Allan lichtman made the keys was he looked at all US presidential elections to a long way back, and fine tuned the keys so that they accurately predicted the results of those elections. It would need to be fine tuned to the country whose elections you are trying to predict. Most keys would have to be thrown out because they are based on the assumption of a 2 party system, and talk about "incumbent party" and "challenging party".

It would be impossible to predict prime minister as if no party gets a majority, who ends up in government depends on which parties manage to form a coalition. Coalition negotiations very hard to predict. Also, if the keys predict a change of administration, how do you know which party will replace them, in the UK that should be easy, but in most countries that is not the case as the parties change all the time. Just look at Italian or French elections. Plus the keys cannot be applied to other countries either: Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. We don't have midterms. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. In most countries there is always a "third party" as they use proportional representation Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. This wouldn't work because terms can be anything from a few months to several years Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. How do you know who the challenging party candidate is?

Plenty of indication Biden is losing votes

His name is Biden.

​@@jaimecontreras6752I'm pretty sure it's Binden

In previous election you liked Mr Trump more? Let me get this straight, you liked the guy constantly lying about election interference?

I'm Rinden with Binden

Biden is calmer alright. Barely moving.

@@goldenhawk352 the economy was recession when Carter ran for reelection

@@goldenhawk352WORST PRESIDENTS- LBJ Carter Clinton Obama Biden. ALL Demonrats

And no president was ever inserted in the history of the United States until 2020.

Except for in 1892, 1912 and 1976, though there were other circumstances at play, as Allan Litchman's 13 Keys To The White House can explain. I have had a look at the short-term economy key: there have been 31 occasions where the key was true, with the incumbent party being defeated in 1860, 1892, 1912, 1952, 1968, 1976 and 2016 (giving 24 wins for a 77% win rate). There is some correlation with the keys for the seven losing years: * All seven years had the no primary contest key be false: Biden has secured this key in 2024. * 1860, 1952, 1968 and 2016 had the incumbency key be false: Joe Biden is running for re-election in 2024. * 1860, 1892, 1912 and 1968 had the no third party key be false: Lichtman has said RFK Jr. is on the fade, so this key leans true in 2024 - it has not yet been definitively called. * 1952 and 1976 had the long-term economy key be false: this is true for Biden in 2024. * 1860, 1892, 1912, 1952 and 2016 had the major policy change key be false: Biden has secured this key in 2024. * 1860, 1892 and 1968 had the no social unrest key be false: it is exceedingly likely that this key will be true in 2024 - it has not yet been definitively called (NB: the last time you had consecutive elections with this key being false was in 1888-1896). * 1952 and 1976 had the no scandal key be false: the GOP, via their own gross ineptitude, have gifted Biden this key in 2024. Based on this, Biden is doing very well on his path to re-election - in fact, these seven keys plus the short-term economy key being true would guarantee that the incumbent party is re-elected, since five or fewer false keys are required to predict the incumbent party's re-election (NB: these eight keys were all true in 1900, 1904, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1964 and 2012).

@@MRB16th technically in 1976 Ford was not running for reelection since he was appointed. He was running for election not reelection

In what world are you living in?... If the election was held today, Trump would win in a landslide. 8 million biden voters have said they have switched to Trump. It will surprise me if it is even close.

A lot of ageism entering the discussion. According to this narrow view only white anglo saxon Christian men between 30 and 50 can hold office or are worth listening to. What a boring colourless world that would be.

He (in his mind) never lost the last time. He has never lost anything in his life. He has been given everything in his life and doesn't understand rejection or loss.

@@carlmcgregor2707 Ah, the old gold spoon in the mouth thingy ? 😆

The same old thing I'm sure

He’s winning right now 😢😢

@@Idevaughan530 Maybe he should just use his right to remain silent

He talked about that on a KZfaq about 2 weeks ago.

He wrote a book about them: The Keys to the White House.

1. Midterm Elections 2. Inner Party Contest 3. Incumbency ( Is the sitting president running) 4. Third Party 5. Short term economy (recession) 6. Long term economy ( GDP growth succeeds or equals previous two terms) 7. Policy Change 8. Social Unrest 9. Scandal 10. Foreign Policy Failure 11. Foreign Policy Success 12. Charismatic Incumbent 13. Challenger Charisma

Try Google Search.

​​@@evanbultemeier3596 With the Keys, here is how they stand based on Allan's public comments and the current situation: Midterm gains - Definitely false (GOP flipped the House during the midterms) No primary contest - Defintely true Incumbent running for re-election - Definitely true No third party - undetermined (this depends on RFK Jr.) Short-term economy - true (there is nothing to indicate a recession in 2024) Long-term economy - Definitely true Major policy change - Definitely true No social unrest - true (the pro-Palestinian rallies haven't come close to turning this key false) No scandal - Definitely true No major foriegn/military failure - true (this depends on Ukraine and Gaza) Major foriegn/military success success - false (this depends on Ukraine and Gaza) Charismatic incumbent - Definitely false (a once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate and/or national hero to turn this key true - Biden doesn't qualify) Uncharismatic challenger - Definitely true (a once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate and/or national hero is required to turn this key false - Trump isn't even close) So, Biden has three false keys (two definitely false). Given that six false keys are required to predict Biden's defeat, this confirms Litchman's statement that "a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election."

trump will lose if you ask me and here’s why. all democrats are united against him, but not all republicans are united behind him. you’ll never hear of a democrat for trump but the RVAT (republican voters against trump) is an entire committee

Why do you want Biden to be president he is awful.

Courtesy of Lichtman's livestream, Allan has said that RFK Jr. is on the fade, and that both economy keys are secure, even if the foriegn/military affairs keys are shaky at this time. Based on Allan's statements and the current situation, here is where the 13 Keys stand: Midterm gains - False No primary contest - True Incumbent seeking re-election - True No third party - leans True Strong short-term economy - True Strong long-term economy - True Major policy change - True No social unrest - currently True (it would take serious and widespread unrest on par with the Civil War, the racial and anti-Vietnam War riots of 1968 and the anti-Trump protests of 2020 to turn the key false) No scandal - True No major foriegn/military failure - Undetermined (it would take a failure on par with the botched Bay of Pigs invasion, defeat in Vietnam and the Iranian hostage crisis to turn the key false) Major foreign/military success - currently False Charismatic incumbent - False Uncharismatic challenger - True Given that six false keys are required to predict Joe Biden's defeat, this means (that all other things being equal) the no third party key, no social unrest key and the no major foriegn/military failure key would all have to turn false by late July or early August, when Lichtman makes his prediction. Therefore, it is highly likely that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump and win re-election.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Frogs_Who_Desired_a_King

Well, not for a very long time and certainly not in our lifetime - the last time you had two presidents facing off directly was 1892 (Grover Cleveland defeated Benjamin Harrison to win his second term). I note that 1912 had the Republicans split between the Conservatives of incumbent William Howard Taft and the Progressives of Teddy Roosevelt, handing the election to Woodrow Wilson (NB: Taft suffered the ignominy of finishing third in a two-horse race).

No. You have one incumbent and one former Incumbent. Theres no reason to believe the keys wouldn't work in this case either.

you are right . trump was a president before . people can compare with each other easily before he made prediction when people did not know one of them. Now they know both of them this time it is too special

Good enough reasons not to vote for Trump. He Doesn't have open heart or clean conscious

I've made a lot of money because of of Lichtman, so I definitely hold his words more closer then most.

Who cares?

@user-ij9ht1fr9g I do! And so should you! People get their ideas and form opinions based partially on what these clowns in the media say and think. It just feeds into a narrative that a Trump presidency would be good for the UK instead of an unmitigated disaster for there and everywhere else. I'm Irish and I long ago came to realise that what happens to the large nations either side of us has a direct impact on my life and those around me. I get annoyed when people in the UK or US get manipulated by such an obvious attempt to promote a bias, particularly from a group, journalists, that should be unbiased. Its dangerous all round

She also wants a horse race just like the msm.

She's a Tory I suppose

She wants a horse race, same as all of the msm.

Because it’s a quote from something Lichtman said. You Trumpers are unbelievably unintelligent

Well… English is not your first language… that’s ok. It just makes me question your current coordinates… if you get my drift…

Well, it would be foolish for anyone to put faith in polls 8 months out...

His predictions for the last few cycles have beeb accurate. He usually makes them around october.

July

He said he'll probably make his pick in August. Sometimes it comes early, even years in advance but this is a chaotic year.

Usually end of summer ( a few months before the election)

If Trump wins the Democrats will set our country on fire....

Just vote for who you know is right. I mean who is best for the USA & the world.

@@kenwalker687 I’m actually British but your argument’s universally applicable when we have our election this year as well.

Don't waste your vote.

If America comes together for the best candidate for America then rfk jr is not a wasted vote.

@@AlexWeberg He is neither fish nor fowl.

Are you asking me to vote or vote against Trump? 😂 I have an opinion too.

If you hold 2000 to the same standard as 2016, he might have been wrong about 2016 instead. Either way, he hasn't always been right but mostly right. I'm not sure the incumbent key is in effect this year, I would question that one.