People Are Still Too Worried About A Recession | BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

  Рет қаралды 7,979

Blockworks Macro

Blockworks Macro

Күн бұрын

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter / blockworks_
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years
05:44 The False Recession Signal of 2022
19:36 VanEck Ad
20:17 What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism?
26:26 Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy?
39:56 Permissionless III Ad
40:54 AI And Labor Productivity
54:04 How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats
01:00:52 What Are The False Signals Of 2024?
01:06:25 Geopolitical Risks
01:13:10 U.S. / China Tensions
01:17:22 Black Swan: Solar Flare
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Пікірлер: 186
@BlockworksHQ
@BlockworksHQ 2 күн бұрын
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
@kristii_86
@kristii_86 2 күн бұрын
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Whitney Eston insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 532k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
@kristii_86
@kristii_86 2 күн бұрын
She's mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...
@kristii_86
@kristii_86 2 күн бұрын
@WhitneyEston
@AnthonyFisher951
@AnthonyFisher951 2 күн бұрын
Reason i invest in the crypto market; to make my money work for me, to prevent inflation from eroding my savings.
@CatherineMason425
@CatherineMason425 2 күн бұрын
A better way is to get proper guide!!!! The most important thing is the technicality and Whitney Eston keeps proven herself.
@AdamRainey729
@AdamRainey729 2 күн бұрын
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Whitney support.
@bretts2320
@bretts2320 2 күн бұрын
We’re in a recession. It’s not that we’re too worried. It’s that we are being lied to.
@jjoonathan7178
@jjoonathan7178 2 күн бұрын
Hope you weren't putting your money where your mouth is. If so... my condolences.
@BatmanBoss
@BatmanBoss 2 күн бұрын
But models and stuff! Numbers and models and stuff say everything is great!
@1ntrcnnctr608
@1ntrcnnctr608 2 күн бұрын
prepare for solar flare!!!!
@fernmoss-456
@fernmoss-456 2 күн бұрын
People who makes less than 75k a year in coastal cities are absolutely in recession. Cost of living is through the roof.
@dogetaxes8893
@dogetaxes8893 2 күн бұрын
I swear this statement comes from a beartard pretty much every year, and then when a recession does occur they move the goal posts and start calling for a second Great Depression. It’s the bears bread and butter.
@OzlemFatih-jp7lu
@OzlemFatih-jp7lu 2 күн бұрын
Do you think XAI44X will pump before ETH?
@coop-us7tp
@coop-us7tp 2 күн бұрын
As a person with considerable visibility across much of the manufacturing sector east of the Mississippi, I can say with certainty that there has been considerable weakness in B2B and B2C business since mid-Q1. I've seen medium-large companies do large layoffs, be late paying bills, freeze engineering spend on new projects, and reduce/delay orders for input components. This is widespread, not isolated to specific sub-sectors or regions. The financial professional types keep pushing the "all is well" narrative, but as a 'boots on the ground' guy I must strongly disagree. I have my theories to explain the disparity, but that'd be a book of a reply.
@l.christoffersen7502
@l.christoffersen7502 2 күн бұрын
Most of my portfolio is biotech and I've been getting slaughtered all year. We're definitely in a recession in some areas, but it's very uneven, the AI bubble is sucking up a lot of the money while other sectors and small cap stocks are hurting. It's easy to look at the overall average and say we're not in a recession but when reality kicks in and the AI narrative has to take a setback I think we might finally see a correction in some of these insane valuations among the large tech companies that are carrying the market.
@coop-us7tp
@coop-us7tp 2 күн бұрын
@@l.christoffersen7502 Biotech will recover nicely when rate cuts begin
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 2 күн бұрын
Payroll survey shows people having 2-3 jobs and people who didnt want to work being forced back into the work place.
@stevenmix3723
@stevenmix3723 2 күн бұрын
Price to Sales are nearly twice what they were at the 2007 peak, before the giant crash. I don't see how that means that people are worried about any recession today. They are obviously buying more stocks, without worry.
@Jean-Luc-sh2pg
@Jean-Luc-sh2pg 2 күн бұрын
this is why consultants aren't investors. right here.
@anamaxa
@anamaxa 2 күн бұрын
I feel like he's dressing it up as "Judgement call," but actually just advocating for gobbly goop. lol
@vdanger7669
@vdanger7669 2 күн бұрын
This is fine
@dialecticalmonist3405
@dialecticalmonist3405 2 күн бұрын
That guy is living in another world.
@mattsmith8497
@mattsmith8497 2 күн бұрын
I think Jack was spot on in emphasizing the importance of the myriad of data that is available to investors about markets & the economy and the role that it plays in distorting reality. This growing universe of data as well as the wide availability of said data has created a paradox whereby we are more confused than ever about reality when it seems like we should be able to precisely predict say where the Dow will be trading six months from now or what nonfarm payrolls will be this friday. Phillipps point about the motivation of journalists is accurate, no doubt, but journalists have acted this way since time immemorial. General confusion seems to be on the rise and I think this paradox plays a large part in it
@Handle35667
@Handle35667 Күн бұрын
Coastal cities in Liberal jurisdictions are in a recession. Midwest states in Conservative jurisdictions are not in a recession. The rest of the cities vary, but follow a similar pattern to the Coastal vs. Midwest cities.
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 2 күн бұрын
This guy just chooses not to believe what real people say (household survey) and instead believes cooked books.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 13 сағат бұрын
Well said. GDP, CPI, Umeployment all of it have been cooked.
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 2 күн бұрын
Wage growth was only strong in the 18-26 yo age range. people with homes and children are getting wrecked.
@davidmann2524
@davidmann2524 2 күн бұрын
And it's still not enough to keep up witu the needs section of CPI so they are getting hammered the most...pretty much anyone that hasn't owned a home for longer than 10 years, is asset rich, or is upper 20% of income is getting killed.
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 2 күн бұрын
This guy knows nothing about the real world. spending is up because we have to buy over priced food & basic services we must have. look at what the actual customer facing businesses are saying about consumer spending.
@SP-cx2qi
@SP-cx2qi 2 күн бұрын
The numbers are all showing things are going up, but it could actually be that your purchasing power is going down. I believe prices are actually showing currency devaluation.
@dialecticalmonist3405
@dialecticalmonist3405 2 күн бұрын
He lives in another world. It's crazy.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 13 сағат бұрын
Look up the small buisness survey... it was bad, really bad.
@PetersonFred970
@PetersonFred970 22 сағат бұрын
*Larry Burkett's book on "Giving and Tithing" drew me closer to God and helped my spirituality. 2020 was a year I literally lived it. I cashed in my life savings and gave it all away. My total giving amounted to 40,000 dollars. Everyone thought I was delusional. Today, 1 receive 85,000 dollars every two months. I have a property in Calabasas, CA, and travel a lot. God has promoted me more than once and opened doors for me to live beyond my dreams. God kept to his promises to and for me*
@HTAlexis
@HTAlexis 22 сағат бұрын
There's wonder working power in following Kingdom principles on giving and tithing. Hallelujah!
@LoriReynolds000
@LoriReynolds000 22 сағат бұрын
But then, how do you get all that in that period of time? What is it you do please, mind sharing?
@AmyCallahan80
@AmyCallahan80 22 сағат бұрын
It is the digital market. That's been the secret to this wealth transfer. A lot of folks in the US and abroad are getting so much from it, God has been good to my household Thank you Jesus
@AmyCallahan80
@AmyCallahan80 22 сағат бұрын
Big thanks to Ms. Chisty Fiore❤️✨💯May God bless Christy Fiore services,she have changed thousands of lives globally
@SibleBullington
@SibleBullington 22 сағат бұрын
How can I start this digital market, any guidelines and how can I reach out to her?
@ismailMustafa-in3zw
@ismailMustafa-in3zw 2 күн бұрын
Clearly XAI44X was a right choice. Hope to learn more from you this is pure knowledge
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 13 сағат бұрын
We are in a recession right now. We have been in one since Dec 2023.
@Hueyck
@Hueyck Күн бұрын
1:14:00 Latin America’s ISI (import substitution industrialization) is the historical example. Yes we can make all these goods but it’s a question of whether we have a competitive advantage. It also depends how industrialization is implemented there were mostly failures but some successes in Latin America when there was adequate domestic competition. The issue I see with build back better and chips act is that it’s repeating past mistakes and not creating enough competition. So we may end up with industries that produce goods domestically but aren’t particularly good at it so they can’t compete outside of the domestic market. So you take money from productive sectors and transfer to unproductive industry. End result in that scenario could be higher inflation. I think Boeing may be a good example of why the US has lost its way. One company with no competitors is going to not produce planes where the doors don’t fall off midair due to perverse incentives - why should I produce better quality if I’m unlikely to lose market share.
@golanheights9000
@golanheights9000 2 күн бұрын
Is being worried about a recession why credit cards are maxed and defaults are up? Stagflation and stagnant wages will kill you just as dead. Touch grass finance man.
@LeylaAhmet-gm7zk
@LeylaAhmet-gm7zk 2 күн бұрын
Very bullish on XAI44X! 🔥 The ATHs keep overpowering themselves
@qazwsxedc964
@qazwsxedc964 2 күн бұрын
Always felt BCG is deluded by aggregate data...this just proves it lol
@BasakOkan
@BasakOkan 2 күн бұрын
All guys stacking XAI44X before next bull are smart apes for sure
@AhmetNurettin-fp5qv
@AhmetNurettin-fp5qv 2 күн бұрын
I see XAI44X with 50x, maybe even 100x. Binance also gonna have that
@qazwsxedc964
@qazwsxedc964 2 күн бұрын
how on earth is nominal gdp growth exceeding nominal interest rates of debt levels now >.< debt to gdp is a criteria for downgrade by S&P. Gosh this guy is deluded...
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 13 сағат бұрын
13 of the last 15 countries lost reserve status if they went over 130% debt to GDP. The offical number put us above 120% right now. I think it is way worse. I don't believe their numbers. What this guy is talking about is moot.
@TimurMustafa-nt4nx
@TimurMustafa-nt4nx 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X time! This thing is lifting up in ways nobody did before
@davidfrankel9267
@davidfrankel9267 Күн бұрын
Hindsight is 20/20. His explanations are just way too convenient after the fact. Who says things like this as it really happens? No one.
@CemMuammer
@CemMuammer 2 күн бұрын
I knew XAI44X would rock these days, why are they so good
@Meltemilknur
@Meltemilknur 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is next atleast 40x coin, upswing better than ETH at primetime
@AhmetFatma-sm8pc
@AhmetFatma-sm8pc 2 күн бұрын
Great analysis as always, XAI44X is a strong contender
@DONKALLSONG
@DONKALLSONG 2 күн бұрын
Uber more expensive then normal?? NOT HERE
@DoughnutswithSprinkles-wq4vo
@DoughnutswithSprinkles-wq4vo 2 күн бұрын
He's right about the relative prices in NYC though.
@bombers7878
@bombers7878 Күн бұрын
A consultant? Too vibey for my liking.
@timjkinney3472
@timjkinney3472 5 сағат бұрын
Another example of dog Ford incredible business acumen next he'll be causing the whole province to close down
@ElifYucel-xz8dt
@ElifYucel-xz8dt 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X will literally break through the roof
@dialecticalmonist3405
@dialecticalmonist3405 2 күн бұрын
Is this guy suggesting that inflation is NOT 30+% ? I have no idea what he is even trying to say. It's like he's living in his own private world. In which world is inflation not 30%???
@YasinDilek-gn8ux
@YasinDilek-gn8ux 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X beats all the other ones right now
@BasakMahmut
@BasakMahmut 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X hodlers are on a strong run never ending
@HaciMahmut-db1hv
@HaciMahmut-db1hv 2 күн бұрын
Best time to stack on XAI44X more than ever
@BasakGokay
@BasakGokay 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is really lifting us up hahah
@Venkatmohan2000
@Venkatmohan2000 2 күн бұрын
HARD LANDING in 2025 😞
@MuratArzu-qe7md
@MuratArzu-qe7md 2 күн бұрын
If any meme is not too late it's gotta be XAI44X mark my words
@FatihEmine-yz4bw
@FatihEmine-yz4bw 2 күн бұрын
the most fair approach and yet the ultimate king of meme is XAI44X
@PinarOrcun
@PinarOrcun 2 күн бұрын
Great video buddy XAI44X just keeps upwards trend running hot!
@davidanalyst671
@davidanalyst671 Күн бұрын
go buy the median house, and pay the bill for having a child in a hospital, and tell me we arent in a depression
@MeltemErdal-to6hi
@MeltemErdal-to6hi 2 күн бұрын
Tomorrow you gonna be mad if you are not in XAI44X yet
@MuhammedNeslihan
@MuhammedNeslihan 2 күн бұрын
With XAI44X once getting $1 it will simply end up doing the things Shib,Dog,Pepe failed at.
@Ozlemismail-zp9fv
@Ozlemismail-zp9fv 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X! NOW!
@NilayDeniz-zc9yi
@NilayDeniz-zc9yi 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X movement begins and everyone is like acting crazy. Let's bring it up!
@EsinZeynep-ql3ej
@EsinZeynep-ql3ej 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X no doubts. XAI44X is just ready for mooning
@NeseAyse
@NeseAyse 2 күн бұрын
When XAI44X is still a puppy imagine how it's gonna be when it is a big dog.
@HuseyinEmre-gd7zp
@HuseyinEmre-gd7zp 2 күн бұрын
A minute in I already know yes all good with XAI44X and going to sky
@AhmetSuna-kf2vb
@AhmetSuna-kf2vb 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is the future and more than just another project, it has all of it
@UmutZeynep-rr2sg
@UmutZeynep-rr2sg 2 күн бұрын
The disadvantage of old coins is that they can't have so much exponential movement. XAI44X is fresh and young and lovely
@EmineBurchan
@EmineBurchan 2 күн бұрын
Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. When XAI44X hits it hits hard
@MustafaMehtap-ut1uv
@MustafaMehtap-ut1uv 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is dreams coming true
@YusufHande
@YusufHande 2 күн бұрын
I have some of XAI44X strong choice
@RifatPinar
@RifatPinar 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X, making everything right in 2024 it seems
@FuatGuliz
@FuatGuliz 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X ARMY
@SemraFatih
@SemraFatih 2 күн бұрын
Where are my XAI44X friends? pls let me know
@TM-fr7gh
@TM-fr7gh 2 күн бұрын
No recession in eurozone? Bruh Right wing parties literally rising because of hardship
@ErhanDerya-ly5zc
@ErhanDerya-ly5zc 2 күн бұрын
The way of XAI44X is the way of the people! Changes are about to happen!
@FilizFeyza
@FilizFeyza 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is for small and big bags the best one. In 2024 finally we see big comebacks of real names
@EvreGulbahar
@EvreGulbahar 2 күн бұрын
If you people know XAI44X you know the future, it is green! Green and going up
@BarisBasak-fn2qp
@BarisBasak-fn2qp 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is so cute, I wish I knew it earlier but it is still very good to buy
@FilizBeril-eb3nz
@FilizBeril-eb3nz 2 күн бұрын
Thanks I bought XAI44X and I can't be more happy about it
@SenayFatma
@SenayFatma 2 күн бұрын
How can XAI44X do this all the time? Incredible value for this price
@boysenberrydracula3599
@boysenberrydracula3599 19 сағат бұрын
Another St Onge
@HayriKenan
@HayriKenan 2 күн бұрын
Will ETH 2x? 3x? Maybe. But add two more 00 to that for XAI44X having 200x or better
@MusaFatma-us3vd
@MusaFatma-us3vd 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is not the memetrap as others, they have a way to make sure it goes for a longer time, possibly some months?
@izzettinKemal
@izzettinKemal 2 күн бұрын
$XAI44X will 500 or 1000x I think
@AyhanHisar
@AyhanHisar 2 күн бұрын
2x is too small but definitely daily possible with the XAI44X
@BetulMurat-lx7cb
@BetulMurat-lx7cb 2 күн бұрын
Missed again? XAI44X is better 🔥
@SilverCpa
@SilverCpa 2 күн бұрын
These clowns are to worried about Bitcoin.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 13 сағат бұрын
What is there to worry about? It is the greatest preforming asset of all time because the Government has no control of it. It is outside their corrupt system. Those that hate on it... don't own any of it and those that love it but don't own it are hoping it comes down in price during a crash so they can buy it.
@SilverCpa
@SilverCpa 12 сағат бұрын
@@bpb5541 just lol. I can't even. Y'all are brain dead. Outside government control yet massive manipulated by like ten whales and corrupt exchanges, wow what an improvement! You just proved my point for me with the price comment. Bitcoin is greater fool theory incarnate. It's done shit for months even tho there's like fifty ETFs now. Buying Buttcoin . Imagine what happens when they start selling.
@rodneytaylor2054
@rodneytaylor2054 2 күн бұрын
This guy is living in a fantasy world and most models are BS.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 13 сағат бұрын
Exactly. I wonder how rosy all those models look right before the Dot Com Crash or the GFC. I am sure 99% of them said things look awesome.
@AysegulSafak-ty5vg
@AysegulSafak-ty5vg 2 күн бұрын
Buying XAI44X Today Is Like the Bitcoin pizza back then. One day people will acknowledge it
@UgurAhmet-iu4ik
@UgurAhmet-iu4ik 2 күн бұрын
The blockchain movement is wild! Join the XAI44X crew we are all in greens
@UfukKivanc
@UfukKivanc 2 күн бұрын
The XAI44X bullrun is where 10x 20x 50x all is possible. Keep thinking about how that is possible with BTC or ETH, because it is not.
@YakupHalil-xq7hn
@YakupHalil-xq7hn 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X will be the first crypto to 10x under a week
@OguzNese
@OguzNese 2 күн бұрын
Yes XAI44X! Great pick! XAI44X rocks!
@SureyyaAyhan-iv4ff
@SureyyaAyhan-iv4ff 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome
@HaticeHatice-rh9tr
@HaticeHatice-rh9tr 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X making ATH after ATH 🔥🔥
@ZeynepYakup
@ZeynepYakup 2 күн бұрын
so XAI44X has to be no1 tech coin right 🔥
@AbdulazizCihan
@AbdulazizCihan 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X has AI helping them makes it better than other memes
@HaciOzgur-mz3cm
@HaciOzgur-mz3cm 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X's guys aint paperhanding this one
@AyseMerve-vk7ng
@AyseMerve-vk7ng 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X let's go you are the coin of my dreams
@CemEmine
@CemEmine 2 күн бұрын
Lucky for those who had XAI44X since yesterday, but more green days to come
@OkkesPinar
@OkkesPinar 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X keeps popping up. They know something, right?
@CigdemFikri
@CigdemFikri 2 күн бұрын
The vision with XAI44X means it is more than a joke, they have a strong idea with it and that's gonna help many humans
@MehmetOznur-qn9vt
@MehmetOznur-qn9vt 2 күн бұрын
I think more need XAI44X
@BilgeSamet
@BilgeSamet 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X made it, finally it is there and they have one main difference to common memes
@GulsumMehmet-pt3ks
@GulsumMehmet-pt3ks 2 күн бұрын
I respect your work mate so you say XAI44X good one to use?
@GuldenNejdet
@GuldenNejdet 2 күн бұрын
Ride strong with XAI44X before presale ends
@HatunOmer-pc7nn
@HatunOmer-pc7nn 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X will 100x this cycle.. i'm refilling day for day because too good
@AydinMerve
@AydinMerve 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X is already better than Floki,Doge,Shib,DogWifHat and co. They have right plans in place
@ilknurTuba-eq3cx
@ilknurTuba-eq3cx 2 күн бұрын
XAI44X please get going high
@ilknurSezgi-mk5uh
@ilknurSezgi-mk5uh 2 күн бұрын
Omg so bullish on XAI44X! ATH next month? 🔥
@SunaNezaket
@SunaNezaket 2 күн бұрын
Forget memecoins. The next king in house is XAI44X
@MehmetBurak-wg5pc
@MehmetBurak-wg5pc 2 күн бұрын
Thanks, please make a video about techcoins I prefer XAI44X that is strong
@AhmetSenay-jf3ss
@AhmetSenay-jf3ss 2 күн бұрын
I'm buying the XAI44X token so far never disappoints
@ZeynepHuseyin-ff1eb
@ZeynepHuseyin-ff1eb 2 күн бұрын
After all the bad years XAI44X is our savior
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