Celsius Stock Has PLUNGED -- Does That Make It a BUY?

Рет қаралды 14,191

Ай бұрын

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Пікірлер: 47

@ThaiGuy7 28 күн бұрын

… Thanks for doing this one. I’ve been curious about it. It has been a pretty wild ride over the last month or so. It’s about back to where I bought my first position, so I haven’t lost anything… And I don’t plan on selling anytime soon. I am debating whether or not to add to it, so we’ll see how that one shakes out.

@spleenful 28 күн бұрын

I think 10 year expected growth is too long of an estimate

@leweezo33 28 күн бұрын

I have a good bit that I have had over a year.. It has been painful the last few weeks... I hope it gets the Stoffel bump

@geolykos 28 күн бұрын

Not a big fan of non-tech stocks but I had to buy some at 53 yesterday

@Watdamarin 28 күн бұрын

Been adding on this dip under $62 more specifically and it’s a brand I’m familiar with as someone into fitness and health and going to the gym 5 days a week its a brand I see a lot of people drink

@knockoutlightz 27 күн бұрын

My own FOMO is keeping me out of the market right now. I take it as a contraindication lol. I work for a HUGE (mostly good and beverage) retailer (I am at headquarters in R&D) and our sales SUCK. They are worse than pre-COVID. We made bank during Covid (I got a $35K bonus) but it just sucks right now and it’s declining.

@thiagomassa9807 28 күн бұрын

100% agree with the part about pricing and valuation, buy price matters a lot. But no moat? People are hooked to the product like are to Coke. It took them 20+ years to figure out how to marketing effectively to its audience and it's a brand that advertises with Ferrari. Beverages have a huge stickness factor. Nothing is a bigger moat than addiction and habits. Monster is the wrong competitor or comparison. It's a different category of a product with a very different target group. I'd put it under the broad category of beverages, like coke, pepsi & gatorade. It isn't a real energy drink, despite having tons of caffeine, it doesn't have sugar and it's just a very different product. It doesn't mean it is better or worse though, just it's TAM is unknown.

@drewlee5138 27 күн бұрын

3:31 3:35 😅 3:52 p😅😅

@baldelliraymond9347 22 күн бұрын

Any thoughts on Service Now. Thanks!

@oneshotoverlord7817 28 күн бұрын

similar brands with famous influencers are taking share

@mattshaffer4765 28 күн бұрын

Are you going to share FCF tool like you have some other ones?

@Chris-vz2kv 28 күн бұрын

I think u get it if u pay for his program

@michaelmiddleton3311 27 күн бұрын

This thing is hard to own. I bought it, and seemingly overnight I had 50% gains. Should have booked it, and ended up getting stopped out when it tanked . I am not seeing it on end caps in the stores I frequent anymore. Everyone wants to own the next Monster beverage. But you need balls the size of coconuts to take a sizable position for the long haul.

@bluezaton 28 күн бұрын

I believe insiders and the family who inherited shares from an early investor are driving the price down, and news, valuation and sentiment are justifying the downtrend, but that's short term noise. They just announced two new flavors and are growing just fine. I think this correction is a massive opportunity for those willing to hold long and ride some volatility

@teamvigod 28 күн бұрын

Thank me for tanking it. I bought just $300 worth of it. Extremely tiny part of my portfolio as my plan was to DCA it over the next year with weekly buys off a few hundred bucks.

@NASAcoverage 27 күн бұрын

I would never look at a company like this. Im nearly all tech focused but im looking hard now because i feel its healthier than other energy drinks and super sticky as I am hooooked the celcius powder mix. 200mg of caffeine per packet. Works out to about 1$ per drink compared to the can which is upwards of 3$

@user-pc6ih6kq5y 26 күн бұрын

How does Celsius score on your antifragile franework?

@Marcus_K 26 күн бұрын

Poorly. No network effects, no switching costs, no counter-positioning or low-cost manufacturing advantage.

@fssrk1 27 күн бұрын

Their net income/ Free Cash flow = 59% that is a yellow flag I learned about in your accounting course. It should be close to 1 but I'm still learning the difference between accrual accounting and cash accounting. Is there some sort of manipulation going on? About $35-$48 I might start a position. Its Price/Free Cash flow is around its 5 year average, so not quite cheap yet. The 1st quarter 2024 is their lowest revenue growth quarter at 36.8% in the last 5 years. True about the moat, it doesn't have the brand loyalty of the large drinks, and there are many ways to get caffeine such as coffee, tea, etc... Maybe they should have a light caffeine version of their drink so caffeine sensitive people could drink it and other people can drink it later in the day.

@wnose 27 күн бұрын

Might be stock based compensation. They recognize the expense on the income statement but no actual cash goes out.

@stoffelbrian 27 күн бұрын

It's almost entirely b/c of accounts recievable and inventory going up. Inventory up isn't a huge surprise, as the company is simply growing. The accounts receivable may be because of the Pepsi partnership -- that would require more digging

@fssrk1 27 күн бұрын

@@stoffelbrian appreciate the reply and enjoying your financial statement course.

@fssrk1 27 күн бұрын

@@wnose appreciate the followup didn't think about that one. I will have to dig in the financial statements more.

@sirus312 28 күн бұрын

Everyone who is fitness oriented is still talking about cyanide in the drink. Regardless if true, that negative talk is not good for the brand. Especially something you drink. Seems like social media made it rise, then took it down

@WilliamRoscoe 28 күн бұрын

I'm really surprised they haven't sued that guy, because anyone who understands the basics of chemistry knows that he was full of shit.

@cloudz83 27 күн бұрын

nobody is going to remember that in like 2 months

@sirus312 12 күн бұрын

@@WilliamRoscoe I think I saw that he removed the video and made a statement so he couldn't get sued. It seems others have saved the video and are sharing it. IMO since this is a legal case, any media platform allowing the video to be uploaded without the explanation from the creator should be liable. CELH should sue Tik Tok/KZfaq for this loophole.

@sirus312 12 күн бұрын

@@cloudz83 usually the case

@teamkentertainment8289 28 күн бұрын

I live in LA. Everyone have stared to talk about cyanide in the drink. I saw the news about a person hospitalized after drinking 2 bottles . Now their brand refrigerators disappear from Target, Ralphs and many supermarkets in LA. They have lost their spaces in stores.

@jackchou1425 26 күн бұрын

Oh really, that's interesting.

@johnny2003 25 күн бұрын

People “are talking about it”? Or that’s a fact?

@AnberThe 28 күн бұрын

I thought you'd change the name of this channel?

@stoffelbrian 27 күн бұрын

Give it 48 hours ;)

@EdwardCima 21 күн бұрын

Brian, thank you for your analysis on Celsius. I was doing well but made some bullish moves in the bearish months of March and April. My question is twofold. First is it looks like I bought Celsius at close to its highs and it has dropped over 30%. I have a decent position at a large loss. It seems like there is a lot of unknowns on their future. Would it be wise to 1.) keep the stock for its potential upside. 2.) sell off partially or totally or 3.) add to the current position. I have beat the Nasdaq and S&P over the year but am lagging greatly this year. I have pruned some losers and added more to strong positions so I am going better but still lagging. Year to date I am at 7.71 % after a strong June. The second question is considering other growth areas doing better would it be a better choice to move money to less varied number of stocks?

@jamesdastrup4317 18 күн бұрын

I am in CELH long and have played it thru 3 earnings dates..I would add to my shares now to average your cost per share down...wait for August earnings high point (which is usually about 2 weeks AFTER earnings dates) then sell out totally...wait until 50 to 54 days before next earnings date and buy back in big...

@jamesdastrup4317 18 күн бұрын

When you are considering jumping on a stocks train study the 1 year 1 day and 3 year 1 week charts carefully for entry/exit points...

@jamesdastrup4317 18 күн бұрын

In CELH holding long term to me makes little sense..there are no divs and safe call premiums suck on weeklys so once a quarter in on shares as mentioned and

@tomliu6358 25 күн бұрын

PE 21 is ok, you may wait $53

@pompejio 27 күн бұрын

Only selling energy drinks is a very, VERY vulnerable position to have going into a recession. Consuming those and coffee are the first things people would cut for years.. Therefore less addiction potential also..

@UziGameGP 14 күн бұрын

That's what ppl told byffet when he went all in on Coka Cola.

@pompejio 14 күн бұрын

@@UziGameGP Maybe... But as war as I know Buffett went into CocaCola after the 1987 crash, not before. The sell-off already happend, that made it a perfect timing, because confident customers spent lots of money again. Exactly the opposit of today. And on the other hand CC was already a great company for decades with robust fundamentals, many products and cultural significance worldwide. The comparison limps a bit, doesn't it...