Note: I kept mispronouncing MAERSK (the shipping company) as Merck (the company making chemicals). I meant to say MAERSK, obviously. The Nebula / CuriosityStream bundle is no longer active. Instead, you can sign up for Nebula directly with my discount now for about $2.5 a month with a yearly plan, which includes Nebula Originals AND the whole Nebula Classes platform, too, including my own class. Sign up here: go.nebula.tv/techaltar

I work in IT consulting company in Russia. Worked on projects in currently sanctioned big bank. All databases are on Oracle, analytics and other system- on SAP. Oracle and SAP have stopped IT support. Needless to say my colleagues from IT department in this bank are in panic mod. Such huge IT environment can't be maintained without 24/7 support from IT providers. Soon it will start to crash. P.S. My company is western based and closes it's office in Moscow. In 2 moths I will be unemployed. 500 out of 2000 employees agreed for relocation ANYWHERE from Russia. Me as well. Specialist exodus from Putin's Russia is going to be enormous.

These consequences are also one of the reasons the EU was founded. When your economy is dependent on the countries around you, then you have a very strong incentive to not invade them.

It's been a year since this video was made and somehow Russia is still hanging on. Make a video on how they are doing this.

So when are they collapsing?

It wasn't until I saw this video that I began to realise the sheer scope of these sanctions. Excellent work

I work in IT field and let me tell you this, Hardware fails every day every minute somewhere out there.. If there is no constant spare part supply, it will decay and will become very limited to function.

Hi TechAlter! so in this video you have made the assertion that the russian economy cannot last beyond a few weeks to a few months. Can you now make a follow up video on why and how they are still fighting, perhaps throw some light on the energy crisis in europe along with that. im looking forward to such a video. i really enjoy your tech related videos too! thanks

this presentation has aged really well. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 on fire here😆🤣🤣

Given the global shortage of computer chips, even if a product is not sanctioned, most companies will prioritize other customers. This will persist even once sanctions are eventually lifted

13:30 Small correction: Shell promised to minimize interaction in Russia, then bought the Russian oil, than had a PR disaster, then promised to pull out of Russia completely.

Watching this at the end of 2023... ha, ha, and one more ha)

You surely got this prediction wrong.

Russia's GDP is a mere 2% or less in relation to global-scale economy. This explains why so many companies found it easy to pull out. Russia does not matter to their profits.

This deep interconnection was one of the main reasons I thought nobody was stupid enough to invade another country like this. The economic impact is insane, and the actual result unpredictable. Even if you look at it ignoring humanitarian values there is just nothing to gain. It's absolutely illogical.

lol this aged well

So how did this video age?

I think the big point is that since there's so many different sanctions, almost every solution a company could turn to to deal with sections is blocked by a different sanction.

The best explanation of what's going on with sanctions I've ever heard. Very well done

It is August 10th as I read the comments associated with this video. The level go group think and how wrong they were about the effects of sanctions is fascinating.

how´s it going?

There was an ex KGB being interviewed recently and he stated that Putin doesn’t and isn’t worrying about the sanctions or “special economic operations”, the oligarchs, or the people. He said he is or may be worried about the security staff around him.

"If China can shift to China" a mistake....but ultimately true and hilarious

man , they are making purchases from satelites states and they have access to what they need

Ah, another renowned analyst sharing his knowledge.

Great video. many people can't understand how disastrous the sanctions are, I personally survived them in the former Yugoslavia which were six times weaker than those in Russia, it's unseen hopelessness, you don't know what to do to feed your family, everything stops and you think never again you will not live normally.

I'm actually shocked by how hard and fast the sanctions hit. I'm guessing Putin is shocked too. He didn't expect a retaliation on this level, coordinated by so many countries and companies. It's unfortunate that average Russian citizens are hurt by this mess, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

well done ..i enjoyed every minute thanks for this research .. good luck ..

Seems this didn't age well🤔🤔

I'd like to add on your point at around 8:00. The Chip blockage is far far far more devistating as you think. I've worked as an embedded software dev for 20 years and those chips usage goes far beyond than most people think here are just some I've worked on. Chips in gasstations, sewages, waterplants, oilplants, food production etc etc etc. Everything which is somewhat automated/remote controlled with logics in place is royally fucked to put it lightly. It won't even take 1 year until major consequences are beginning to appear in normal peoples life. Fresh water, gas and food will get wracked sooner or later as everything requires modern chips these days. I'am really interested in the way the russians are gonna deal with it. Even us without any trade restrictions had problems the last 3 years due to the semiconductor shortages especially in embedded fields. sry that my grammar sucks hard, but I really wanted to make clear how depended a modern civilization is from these chips. The most basic infrastracture is dependend on it. a little edit for further info. The lowest russian semiconductors got around 130~ nm. They've claimed to produce 90nm but that one never came to light so most likely a propaganda hoax.

This whole situation seems to have citizen outrage as a major driver of these sanctions, especially when it comes to companies electively stopping exports for PR reasons. Never underestimate the power your voice has.

4 months later, they are going as strong as ever

Why is the EU economy collapsing? Shouldn't the Russian economy be collapsing?

China will probably be able to keep Russia functioning. But that is not a win for Russia. China doesn't do favours. In fact, they're quite nasty when they have leverage over someone, and they have scores to settle with Russia.

No one has explained the implications of Russian sanctions better. This was amazing!

A March 10 video…. Wow… have you been wrong, TechAlter, looking back at all your predictions today, July 7.

Would you consider making "where are we now" type of follow-up to this video? It's been a month since the release and Russia has not backed down and sanctions are just ramping up.

Russia, the largest nation on earth, has access to huge natural resources, and an educated, scientifically literate population, and yet its economy is reliant on commodities such as energy and minerals, and ordinary citizens have a relatively low standard of living. The only people who make money are the oligarchs, and they hoard it to themselves, investing in Western economies and assets, and educating their children in the UK and Americ. Putin himself has become incredibly wealthy by stamping down the aspirations of the people he supposedly represents, and has salted away the proceeds with his billionaire friends. For twenty years he has looked backwards with nostalgia to the Soviet era, and he has kept Russia facing in the same direction, while lining his own pockets very deeply. Russia, which once held its own in the space race, has fallen further and further behind the West, and been overtaken by China, and the other rising economies in the East. The only thing he has invested in consistently is the military, and now we see that even that is not as effective as he supposed. He's let his country down very badly, if they did but know it. However he still has enormous potential to do damage - a nuclear weapon can still get by on 75 year old technology, after all. He's signed his own fate now, but who will he take down with him?

I wasn't expecting to understand or like this video. But it was really interesting and well explained... brilliant. Well done and thank you for explaining. 🙂

Great video! A comprehensive view of sanctions, impacts, and the clear outcome of choices made. One tiny goof @9:30, with China switching to China line :) - not to bust balls here - a very informative take!

Thanks for that explanation, please keep up your good work

I didn't know that the sanctions were nearly this extensive. thanks for the deep dive.

Amazing insight, as always, how you manage to acquire and process so many pieces of information is really impressive. Keep up with the awesome work!

Wow, excellent video. Very, very informative.

good job man

Russian here. I’m in server hardware business and everything is collapsing. Thanks for an objective review on our current situation. P.S. Guys, please don’t blame the common folk. We are under the reign of the war criminal and any voice of reason is beaten to death in the modern concentration camps. Others left are zombified by nazi propaganda. It’s the “1984” came true. I pray for the people of Ukraine and hope for this madness to stop.

09:30 China switching to China sounds impossible yes

After one year. Russia is surviving.

No problem on the miss pronunciation. I think we all knew who you were referring to ))) What a great video! I am an American here in Ukraine and so this is all great to hear. Thanks for such a nice video!

Asianometry is a hell of a channel, probably my fav yt creator, rn. Great to seeing it pop up in here, given that it only reinforces my impression of the amazing analysis you have done in this video. Congrats!

thank you for putting the Nebula video link in the description. So many content creators dont do it

never heard such an explnation of anything so clearly ,you are a master

This answered a lot of my questions Thank you🤓

Here in Finland the drivers of Yango, a Russian taxi service, are ripping off their Yango tapes and have switched over to other services or operate independently for now.

I work in IT support for a huge worldwide company that produces mostly safety products for the automotive industry(like seatbelts and stuff - it's very likely that your car's seatbelt comes from us) . We have a facility in Russia and out management stopped production there because of the war but they are still paying the workers there for the moment.

This has not aged well.

Sounds great about the tech part, but some European countries are still buying lots of oil and gas from Russia and the oil price is going up, giving Russia more money for the war.

Thank you for having a nebula link in the discription!

My thoughts go out to the poor Ukrainian and Russian citizens being affected by the war and the sanctions. So many innocent people suffering

Fantastic research well done

Thanks for fully explaining the Russian sanction situation. Well done video clear and precise.

I was really waiting for a video about this topic from you. Glad you made it!

My company was originally planing to buy Kaspersky security services for our computer operations, but what a quick 180° decision change.

Great report. Please make a follow up to this. Thanks

good material, but please consider adding an outline with chapter or subject / time stamps so we can jump to parts of interest!

smic and huawei is already in full blown sanction for lower than 14 nm machine, yet they still survive and 20-30% yoy growth revenue , lithography machines for 14nm and above china is already self sufficient recently, that is the reason US doesnt put mature nodes as target list, below 14nm is very niche and have no widespread use

I'm from Dnipro Ukraine, and I've been your subscriber since times when your background was a white wall :) I'm happy to see your supporting us with real actions.

Nice job. Thank you.

One thing about the Russian people I know is just how pragmatic and practical they are. Inoperable planes for instance will be employed as a source of parts for more maintainable planes. They are also quite capable of working to repair anything that is mechanically reparable.

What a great video. This explains so much more than anything I have seen. Thank you.

One thing missing from this analysis is energy exports which are not only untouched but also greatly enhanced due to the higher price being paid by Europe and others for Russian oil and gas. Without this income stream Russia’s economy and its ability to fund a war would certainly collapse in a matter of weeks. Buying Russian oil and gas is prolonging the agony for Ukraine.

Plus all shipping companies have pulled out so nothing can be shipped if they could buy someting.

Outstanding report !!

Clear, logical, systematic, and extremely useful! Thank you!

Best commentary I've seen in the tech sector regarding Russia to date regarding this war and sanctions.

In your preview of your Technorama channel, you speak of Ada Lovelace and the Analytical Engine - "the computer with cogs and wheels". It was not conceived by Ada Lovelace - it was conceived and partly built by Charles Babbage, who didn't even get a mention in your comment. He demonstrated parts of the machine to her when they met in 1833. Ada was the daughter of the poet Lord Byron, but she had studied mathematics, and was very interested in the concepts of the analytical engine (as the computer was called), and is hailed as the world's first programmer. It was made for mathematical analysis of numeric problems, such as statistics, finance, etc, but Ada, more imaginativew than Babbage, was the first to see deeper possiblities of using it for anaysis of shapes and objects, such as topology and musical composition. The scientific computer language, Ada, was named after her. Babbage was not a good man manager, could not hold staff, and never completed the analytical engine. It was later built from his plans, and an example of it can be seen in the Science Museum in London.

Very interesting thank you!

I think we've all learned that their military doesn't use any sophisticated chip based equipment.

You forgot, that the russian airplane/airtransport industry will not recover from this. Russia wanted to become the world third biggest airplane producer. Gone. Support for airplane parts. Gone (maybe one year out of support, no airbus/boing will be able to fly). No leasing of airplanes are allowed. So every airline is down and won't be competetive. No financing of airplanes allowed. No new airplanes. Russia is a huge country, it's a problem to keep it connected.

I heard a joke about the Ruble. What's the difference between one dollar and one Ruble? answer - About 1 dollar.

This was a great video, very informative and no extra bs. Thank you

This was the most enlightening 17:23 I have spent in the last 2 yrs, thanks for showing a bigger picture of what most media just gloss over

SMIC is actually already under sanctions anyway, from my understanding. They are thus not allowed to acess the latest lithography machines and thus cannot compete with the now sanctioned western-made chips.

An excellent analysis!

You need to make updated video.what is really happenning there?

Im Russian, 23 years old, living in Mexico since 2014, peace to everyone ☮️

"Putin's reserves in foreign banks were simply frozen" "Putin did not see this coming" Does not sound like Putin is quite the genius he would have you believe he is.

Very interesting video. 1:36 A correction: "Sanctions... such as the seizure of their yachts." No. Until now all of these yachts have been *"arrested"* (not allowed to move), *not "seized"* (transfer of ownership).

What happens to even a small company when the computer goes down? Everything grinds to a halt until it gets fixed. That's where we are, and that's where they are. Every modern 'technician' knows it. We are computer dependent.

If I am not mistaken, Russia also provides neon for a large part of the semi-conductor production worldwide. If that stops flowing, the already stressed semi-conductor situation worldwide will only increase. Perhaps you should have mentioned that as well.

My company (I won't mention the company name because I'm not authorized to speak on its behalf) makes chemical analysis equipment. We service many industries where knowing the exact chemical composition of a material is important. This includes food safety (think testing for toxic chemicals on food), petroleum and chemical industry, pharmaceutical industry, medical diagnostics (especially due to some acquisitions in the past decade in cell analysis and CRISPR technology), and chemical and biology research. On March 2, our CEO announced two things. First, we are halting shipments of all equipment except diagnostics and health care to Russia. And limiting in-country service of already deployed equipment to existing diagnostics and healthcare customers. Second, our cheritable foundation is donating $100k to relief organizations supporting the Ukraniran people, and are providing 1:1 corporate matching for employees donating to similar organizations. Just another example of what private organizations can do to support the Ukraniran defenders.

There was never a war won by sanctions, especially a resource country like Russia

But lately, china and Russia jointly stand together to supply each other needs.

Think of similar scenario with China. Every sector globally would impact since most countries fully dependant on import from china and specifically cant survive without Lithium or Semiconductor demand.

Damn. I thought the sanctions were harsh but when you break it down it sounds like hell

Boy, that aged badly 😅

Ah man, you were so wrong, it seems...

Sadly, sanctions often hurt the normal civilians much more than they hurt the oligarchs and politicians.

The really interesting part is just the small inefficiencies that get randomly created. Business has a will of its' own and will always move towards being more and more efficient. The more pieces you remove, just means every little business action becomes less efficient and therefore more expensive and it compounds. Even the things Russia still can do on its' own, will now be more expensive..at a time when the Ruble is down almost 40%. Currency getting less valuable, and at the same time every business function getting more expensive. And Russia is not like the USA who can basically print money to get through a trying time, Russia can't just print money because the overall pool of Rubles is magnitudes of order less than the USD.

Any updates on this topic? I saw that the Ruble was back up.