July might have big storms in the Southern Ocean but it may be high pressure near Tasmania and New Zealand that dominate the first half of the month. Despite July in NZ kicking off with an active cold front and low pressure, the high pressure zone near Aussie will influence NZ’s weather for well over a week.
Initially this set-up brings temperatures down across New Zealand to average or below average.
Despite rain and snow kicking off the month, the south-west lean (overall) to our airflows (even if you locally have other winds) means that most wet weather looks to be in the west to south-west of NZ. This is good news for the eastern North Island which wants a breather following the flooding in late June - but not great news for Canterbury which needs more rain.
We are still in a NEUTRAL season (ie no La Nina or El Nino) - and that is certainly showing up in the weather we’ve experienced these past two months.