Cluster Munitions & Artillery in Ukraine - Attrition, Ammunition & Adaptation in 2023

Рет қаралды 760,203

Күн бұрын

Description:
While systems like tanks, jets and cruise missiles tend to capture the public imagination, the war in Ukraine in 2023 is largely being fought with much the same tools as it was in 2022 - artillery.
The constant exchange of fire has been critical to the battle, enabling attrition, blunting attacks and enabling advances. Both sides have continued to adapt, trying to refine their tactics and capabilities while wearing down their opponent.
But in this attritional struggle, losses and resupply of systems, barrels and ammunition matter, not just tactics. Ukraine now finds itself in an ammunition deficit - trying to attack at a time where its allies have not yet ramped up production enough to readily meet its needs.
It's in that context that the US recently announced the supply of cluster munitions to refill Ukraine's ammunition bunkers. Today we look at those munitions, their likely impact, as well as the broader course of the artillery war in Ukraine one year on from my original video on the topic "outgunned"
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats and comments:
historical data is limited less by the fog of war and more by the quality and limitations of the study in question (as with the CM figures from Vietnam)
Regarding cluster munitions - I have tried to give a frank evaluation of the current regulations and their potential application - but must note that this does not in itself represent an endorsement of the production, transfer or employment of these munitions in contravention of the CCM
All usual caveats - including the content's intended role as entertainment and all statements coming with an * serving interchangeably as "reportedly" "allegedly" or similar
Relevant Reading:
Covert Cabal counting RUssian artillery
• Can Ukraine Stop Russi...
RUSI - Russian tactics in the second year
static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russia...
Armament Research, Development & Engineering Centre - Picatinny Arsenal
The evolution of Artillery for increased effectiveness
ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcl...
RUSI on cluster munitions
www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
GAO artillery inventory NSIAD-95-89
www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/G...
US army ammunition procurment justification book - FY2020
www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72...
Official Russian economic statistics
rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediab...
Jamestown Foundation on Russian arms manufacturing:
jamestown.org/program/the-tru...
National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
nabu.gov.ua/en/
Reporting on DPICM to Ukraine
www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/...
www.nbcnews.com/politics/dona...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
German ammunition production for Ukraine reporting
news.yahoo.com/germany-plans-...
tass.com/world/1614189
British estimate on Russian ammunition expenditure
kyivindependent.com/uk-armed-...
Reporting on ammunition shortages and expenditures
time.com/6263802/ukraine-west...
apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
kyivindependent.com/investiga...
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Reporting on claimed Iranian ammunition going to Russia
mil.in.ua/en/news/iran-delive...
Removal of General Popov
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7...
Russia rocket technical
defence-blog.com/russian-impr...
Ukrainian 203mm firing US made rounds
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-2...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - The Artillery War In Ukraine - 2023
00:01:48 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:25 - The Decisive Weapon
00:08:01 - Changing Tools & Tactics
00:13:14 - Losses & Trends
00:24:35 - Ammo Consumption
00:32:17 - Cluster Munitions & The Debate
00:50:14 - Russian artillery sustainability
00:59:00 - NATO+
01:08:34 - Next Steps
01:11:42 - Conclusions
01:12:58 - Channel Update

Пікірлер: 2 900

@PerunAU 11 ай бұрын

After talking about CMs several times in the past, the recent announcement convinced me it was finally time for an artillery 2023 video. There is one correction and one note that I want to add here. One - because sometimes you don't check the basics, I mistakenly wrote "Dual-Purpose Improved Cluster Munition" on the slide for DPICM and proceeded to read it without thinking. DPICM is, in fact, the Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munition" Two - There was a missed opportunity to point out the irony of worrying about the UXO from unexploded artillery fired CMs, when artillery scattered mines are in use. An additional observation I'll make here is that the original 2022 video was produced more than a year ago at this point. it is my genuine hope that there doesn't need to be a late 2024 update, as real as that possibility is.

@haydnw869 11 ай бұрын

Hey Perun could you please do a video on how AI like chatGPT and other LLMs could be used by military’s

@PerunAU 11 ай бұрын

@haydnw869 good topic. very good topic. will take time to get experts on background but I'll look at it.

@haydnw869 11 ай бұрын

@@PerunAU also what do you think of AI pilots or other AI systems Pros and cons of AI pilots Disclaimer this is a rough overview and shouldn’t be taken by absolute as all pros and cons, that is why I ask you to expand on this list if you can please I am just a guy on the internet who wants to know more about AI Pros: * AI pilots follow orders * No loss of human life, skill and experience because the AI pilot will be backed up on a server somewhere * Experience for failed missions/flights due to crashes or other problems can be learnt from and the AI pilot can be updated and upgraded * AI pilots will have more accuracy and manoeuvrability then human pilots (especially for high G sustained Manouvers) * specific and unique experiences that one generation of human pilots can be lost and not introduced to new human pilots. AI pilots (assuming the data is transferred before the data is lost) will have a greater likelihood of keeping generational skills and experiences * AI pilots do not get tired, need to go to the toilet, require leave and rest * Ai pilots do not get depressed so there is no risk of PTSD or suicide * AI pilots can be more versatile in programming so one program can fly multiple system including missiles and other guided munitions * AI pilots follow orders Cons: * AI pilots follow orders * AI pilots are at risk of getting hacked * AI pilots are at risk of communication blackout resulting in no orders to follow ( this can cause the AI pilot to return to base which can be used against itself) * AI pilots (at lest for now) have vary limited programming which means the AI pilot can only respond to specific and limited situations * AI pilots (at lest for now) cannot adapt to new and unforeseen circumstances and overcome them * AI pilots (at lest for now) do not have the hardware to be as situationally aware as human pilots AI pilots as of right now need to be monitored and instructed by a human pilot via a ground command unit or a flying wingman variant but that is likely to change in the future AI in general can be hacked and interfered with but with any technology it will improve over time eventually (possibly) making getting hacked impractical AI pilots are at the same risk of getting hacked as human pilots As of the 2020s AI pilots are are vary limited in what they can do and human pilots completely outclass them and human pilots will remain for decades to come. However AI (just like any technology) will improve over time and if the human form does not improve itself mentally or physically then inevitably AI pilots will rule the sky’s. Please fell free to add to this list

@irgendwieanders2121 11 ай бұрын

@@haydnw869 HIT-F! High-intensity troll farming...

@DUBSTEP_KUSH305 11 ай бұрын

GLORY to ukraine and the heroes of Ukraine!! 🇺🇦❤🇯🇲🎉🎉!! THANKS Peru 😉

@lorax8172 11 ай бұрын

Cluster munitions are far safer than RU occupying your country

@herptek 11 ай бұрын

Exactly. War is not the safest business to begin with.

@mehlm5941 11 ай бұрын

are you people actually delusional? Russia uses cluster munitions and they should be brought to court but when Ukraine uses the same ammunition they get a pass? Ukraine kills civilians and they have a million excuses but when Russia does it their demons? It doesn't matter what munition Ukraine uses there still going to lose but hey more civilians dying is ok right. When Russia occupied Crimea civilians where pretty safe after the fighting. Go to Ukraine and look at the dead women and children shredded by Ukrainian cluster munitions and come back with the same energy I bet you wont you delusional coward.

@youngthinker1 11 ай бұрын

So areas filled with potential explosives which will requires years of work to clear and repair for economic purposes is better than a Russian occupation?

@squodel1051 11 ай бұрын

@@youngthinker1absolutely They’ve been actively committing genocide against Ukraine so having to clean up cluster munitions is better than more mass graves of their own citizens

@TheSquidPro 11 ай бұрын

Children should mind their own business anyway and not pick up bomblets, jeez.

@sanchorim8014 11 ай бұрын

I understand our allies' objections to cluster munitions. I also understand that if they were in Ukraine's shoes, they'd happily accept cluster munitions supplies.

@Shenaldrac 11 ай бұрын

Yup. Everyone hates stuff like that until they need it, and then magically all the objections disappear.

@mt8956 11 ай бұрын

Both sides have used it before, also both sides have hit residential buildings. So the only difference it would make will be in the future when the war is over and unexploded munition kills civilians in the future.

@dangarrett8676 11 ай бұрын

Also the Ukrainians are specifically requesting DPICM, the Ukrainians know the risk and want it anyway. If they know and accept the risk then I fail to see the problem

@RaveDecoy242 11 ай бұрын

@@dangarrett8676 The problem is politics. Too many pro-Ukrainian governments trying to play both sides of the voting aisle by giving just enough to seem like they're doing much, but always short enough that their pro-Russian constituents complain just a bit. And I don't blame them; that's how politics work. It just sucks, since for each placated pro-Russian tankie living in the opulent West, we put a Ukrainian defender and civilian at risk.

@Shenaldrac 11 ай бұрын

@@dangarrett8676 It's pretty typical "we know what's best for you" mindset. Condescending in the extreme.

@themugwump33 11 ай бұрын

I would love to see a video along the lines of … “after one year, here’s what I got right, here’s what I got wrong, and here’s a breakdown of what can reasonably be predicted in warfare and what cannot.”

@ianmason96 11 ай бұрын

Yes, this!

@igorbednarski8048 11 ай бұрын

Sounds interesting, I hope Perun sees that comment

@zadovrus1624 11 ай бұрын

you think he'll really do it XD XD XD I used to watch his vids, yet he keeps saying "Russia bad, Russia will lose" and this discredited him so much that it became unwatchable

@regalvas 11 ай бұрын

@@zadovrus1624if you used to watch his videos what are you still doing here?

@igorbednarski8048 11 ай бұрын

@@zadovrus1624 obvious troll is obvious.

@Attilles 11 ай бұрын

As an American I can vouch for the concept of emotional support ammo; i personally own an emotional support rifle.

@Kenneth_James 11 ай бұрын

They let you fly with it too?

@Attilles 11 ай бұрын

@@Kenneth_James only in Florida, the lesser states dont care for it.

@tsufordman 11 ай бұрын

@@Kenneth_James Checked of course, in a locked case.

@peacepeople9895 11 ай бұрын

I use mine for just a little more than emotional support, but yes I totally understand.

@brianb5543 11 ай бұрын

Only 1 emotional support rifle? What are you....Californian?

@yayekit 11 ай бұрын

The funniest part was watching russia threaten to use the same ammunition in response. As if they haven't done that since the day one of the invasion.

@mt8956 11 ай бұрын

Both sides have used it before so Russians are idiots

@dx-ek4vr 11 ай бұрын

Gotta love Human Rights Watch being suspiciously silent when Russia was using cluster bombs on Ukrainian civs before Ukraine got their hands on western cluster munitions

@yayekit 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374Not on residential areas, as Russia did in Kharkiv. So stop whining.

@TheStephaneAdam 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374 Oh no you don't vatnik. ODD ain't a sign of intelligence. Believing any pro-Russian source of information is a sing of mentakl disease.

@michaelpayne9712 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374 "...pretty close..."??? Really?

@jdcoverland365 11 ай бұрын

Canada does not have a problem banning cluster munitions, as it is difficult to load all the submunitions inside the rocks we use in our most advanced trebuchets.

@alexboccaccio5431 11 ай бұрын

Lol

@reverance_pavane 11 ай бұрын

Have you tried sacks of gravel instead?

@Jetman123 11 ай бұрын

The trebuchet is necessary because the enemy would hear us apologizing otherwise. We have to do it from far away.

@robgrey6183 11 ай бұрын

Canadians can be moral prigs because they don't have to seriously consider defending themselves.

@americankid7782 11 ай бұрын

@@robgrey6183they don’t really need to as it’s in our interest to provide military coverage over Canada. You don’t really need to make a world beating military when the US is next door and interested in keeping you in its sphere of influence.

@moors710 11 ай бұрын

I worked in an area (naval weapons range inside the continental USA) that had cluster munitions that self disarmed after about 100 cm of rain. The explosives in the munitions had a plastic window that was partially water soluble, and the explosives were highly water soluble nitrates that double as fertilizer. These self disarming munitions were developed because of the objections to such munitions lasting for years in fields, lakes and rivers. My experience was in desert conditions where the rainfall averaged about 20 cm annually so the problem stayed with us for many years. those parts of the range that had these munitions dropped on them have since returned to farming.

@zadovrus1624 11 ай бұрын

Ukraine will receive leftovers that's about to expire not fancy new stuff

@MostlyPennyCat 11 ай бұрын

Why the hell aren't we sending those then?

@himoffthequakeroatbox4320 11 ай бұрын

I did wonder about that - and also why the dud rate is so high.

@kimweaver1252 11 ай бұрын

I knew we had self-disarming munitions, but didn't know the mechanism. Very cool.

@MrNicoJac 11 ай бұрын

I wondered about developing something like that - self-disarming or at least fast-eroding. Any idea why that stuff didn't become the norm? Cheers!

@S1mass 11 ай бұрын

"And if this is going according to plan, I would pay amazing money for a transcript of the planning session that came up with this one. Because the plan that revolved around not taking Kiev on day 1 to 3 and then transitioning to rocket pod technicals at day 500+ would truly be some 5D chess grand planning." Fell out of the chair after hearing this 🤣

@2DTom 11 ай бұрын

Like the old saying goes, don't worry about the bullet with your name on it, worry about the artillery shell addressed 'To whom this may concern'

@aaronwalsh8469 11 ай бұрын

Watched an interview with a British solder fighting in Ukraine. He said he wouldnt be surprised if 90% of the casualties on both sides will be from artillery.

@bobjohnbowles 11 ай бұрын

@@aaronwalsh8469 If you have seen any of the videos posted by Brandon the Canadian this confirms that is the case. Most casualties are from shrapnel and blast, not bullets.

@rongardener4142 11 ай бұрын

Maybe the Ukrainian gunners should address their shells "To the occupier"

@patricknakasone9376 11 ай бұрын

Artillery is typically addressed to occupants.

@JM-mh1pp 11 ай бұрын

@@patricknakasone9376 artillery is not adressed to any particular group, more to the area code.

@FriedrichHerschel 11 ай бұрын

As a German it always warms my heart hearing ukrainian accounts of being happy with our weapon systems provided. I wished we'd given more and sooner, but still good to hear that it's valued and makes a difference.

@andrewwilson1665 11 ай бұрын

Make sure to write your politicians that they should keep up support for Ukraine!

@laststand6420 11 ай бұрын

German weapons have(mostly) been the best for centuries... Most weapons platforms have at least a couple German "ancestors". The problem has usually been scaling those weapons up to competitive volumes.

@michalandrejmolnar3715 11 ай бұрын

We need to provide much more!

@occamraiser 11 ай бұрын

I was very unhappy with Germany's attitude for the first WHOLE YEAR of the war, trying to prevent others from helping and refusing to help themselves. I commented very negatively about Germany on many forums - but I am completely impressed with the level of support Germany has given this year. Thank You :)

@occamraiser 11 ай бұрын

@@andrewwilson1665 I do so every month - but I'l wait for the apology from Zelensky for taking the piss out of the British Defence minister before I do so again. A beggar at the door needs to show a lot more humility. Britain is at no risk from Russia we are supporting Ukraine because it is morally right to do so - they could at least say thanks and not behave like 'entitled' teenagers.

@jpa5038 11 ай бұрын

I can't underscore how important General Ivan Popov's revealed information is for the trajectory of the war. He revealed that Russian troops are no longer being rotated out from the front line, that Ukrainian counter-battery fire is annihilating the Russian military and he was willing to speak out and risk his career and his life because he feels that how the Russian Ministry of Defense is handling the war will lead to total defeat for the Russian military.

@ChucksSEADnDEAD 11 ай бұрын

Hearing about Russian units not being rotated has preceded their biggest defeats so far in this conflict. Fingers crossed.

@jpa5038 11 ай бұрын

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD I keep seeing this image in my head of the Russian front line finally having enough and breaking. Thousands of Russian soldiers retreating from their positions and getting gunned down and obliterated by artillery as they run for their lives. Hopefully it's a soon to be reality.

@zadovrus1624 11 ай бұрын

@@jpa5038 Change Russian for Ukrainian and you'll that very soon

@andersjjensen 11 ай бұрын

And I would hazard the guess he got a job offer from Prigozhin fairly soon after being dispelled. Everyone who's mad at the Russian DoD seems to be gathering in Belarus these days.

@jpa5038 11 ай бұрын

@@zadovrus1624 learn to string a sentence together before typing something.

@hgman3920 11 ай бұрын

While WWII is popularly known for blitzkreig warfare, artillery was responsible for over 2/3 of all deaths during that conflict. The more things change . . .

@debeeriz 11 ай бұрын

l would have thought bombs would have been the most destructive, then disease

@Niels_Larsen 11 ай бұрын

That is wrong. Most of the deaths doing that war was caused by deliberate genocide, decease, starvation, mass carpet bombing and mass executions of POW's.

@lisaruhm6681 11 ай бұрын

@@debeeriz Volume of Fire difference.

@kimweaver1252 11 ай бұрын

The only thing more lethal than artillery in WW1 was disease.

@debeeriz 11 ай бұрын

@@lisaruhm6681 according to google 20 million troops and 55 million civilians, were killed and i know millions died in asia from starvation and disease Then there were the camp deaths, with troops l could understand shelling could have killed more military personal but not so civilians

@SittingOnEdgeman 11 ай бұрын

I love the phrase "emotional support ammunition".

@1337flite 11 ай бұрын

Does emotional support ammo -cause EMOOOOOTIONAL DAAAAAMAGE?

@rakaydosdraj8405 11 ай бұрын

@@1337flite only when it's taken away for someone else to fire.

@andrewhawkins6754 11 ай бұрын

@@1337flite Instead of exploding and causing casualties, emotional support ammo causes morale damage (aka emotional damage) xD

@e2rqey 11 ай бұрын

Many I know in the USA have quite a bit of emotional support ammo 🤣

@rodgerbane3825 11 ай бұрын

The US has a LOT of cluster shells, that they will never use and Ukraine has a intense shell hunger. So perfect solution to a serious problem for Ukraine.

@jodyfulford8215 11 ай бұрын

Exactly! Instead of wasting money on decommissioning munitions that are reaching the end of their shelf life we send them to Ukraine. They can decommission them for us while decommissioning Russians which saves taxpayer dollars. And, as an added bonus, since Russia seems hell bent on decommissioning their own citizens, everybody wins!

@andrewhawkins6754 11 ай бұрын

Exactly! 3 million rounds as effective as 10 million normal rounds would really allow Ukraine some leeway to absolutely wreck Russian atry. Not to mention, as Perun pointed out, there are millions of mines there anyways, so it's a few % more cleanup in the same areas. The USA has so much stuff they'll never use that, despite the aid package sticker price, the government may actually be SAVING money long term by shipping that stuff overseas. It was designed to wreck this particular enemy, so who better to have it than someone already fighting that enemy! Plus, for the people who object to the US's support of Ukraine, they should remember that China, Australia, and Ukraine are/were the top producers of rare earth metals for electronics and such. Protecting Ukraine means a long-term ally with resources industry needs in case of war with China over Taiwan. This is especially true if China builds up enough to contest the Pacific or at least interdict trade with Australia. I'm a center-left person politically but definitely not a pacifist. I despise wars of aggression (like Iraq), but I wholly support anyone defending their sovereignty against an outside invader. Military vigilance is always required for that, and it can be politically expedient to reduce that readiness for snort-term political gains. I don't like how big the budget is, but I also understand why it is the way it is and would rather have the capabilities and not use them than need them and be screwed. That being said, explaining better the *why* of protecting Ukraine in terms of America's gains from that war would go a long way to reducing some rather idiotic Russian-funded politicians' influence.

@Dfthg-bz3hp 11 ай бұрын

Good reason to never give the Ukrainians F16s,we may actually use those 😊

@eturner4940 11 ай бұрын

⁠@@Dfthg-bz3hpwe should give them ALL our F16s. We built them to fight the Soviets. Let them fulfill their intended purpose.

@colinobrien3806 11 ай бұрын

hardly perfect when a five year girl blows her hand off in 5 years time playing in a field

@aaronbrideau2988 11 ай бұрын

I absolutely love the dry sarcasm and subtle references to meme culture. Makes your videos especially appealing to service members like myself who want to better understand the daily news in context and the bigger picture. Thank you so much for continuing to publish this content!

@williamyoung9401 11 ай бұрын

If you want to laugh... (55:29)

@podulox 10 ай бұрын

@@williamyoung9401 That's like two and a half thousand years in the future man...

@okphalmer6596 11 ай бұрын

If I understood correctly cluster munitions were developed during cold war in a preparation for WWIII. They were meant to be used in a conventional battlefield with two opposing armies, against large infantry formations. The reason why they have so bad reputation is because they were used in asymmetric conflicts in Vietnam, Laos and Afghanistan where insurgents were operating amidst the civilian population. In those conflicts they caused huge suffering to the civilians which led many parties demand them to be banned. In 2007 Human Rights watch even said that cluster munitions have no place in modern battlefield because modern warfare was going to be like wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, asymmetrical warfare against insurgents with civilians caught in the middle. The current war what we are seeing in Ukraine, with two large conventional armies fighting along long trench networks, was seen 10 years ago as thing of the past, something that could never happen in modern world. That's why I see cluster munition debate little misplaced. If Ukraine uses cluster munitions to clear Russian trenches then that is exactly how they were designed to be used in first place. Front line areas of Ukraine are already full of mines and UXO. Sappers have to clear them anyway before civilians can return there. Cluster munitions are just drop in the bucket at this point.

@ronblack7870 11 ай бұрын

well crybabies just want to bitch about it.

@Stamboul 11 ай бұрын

Just to add to this, the Ukrainians want cluster munitions to liberate their own territory, not to invade a foreign country. It's their civilians that would be put at (an even greater) risk on account of cluster munitions. So objections that don't come from the Ukrainian public sphere don't really count for much. And objections that come from Russian apologists are downright disgusting.

@johanmetreus1268 11 ай бұрын

I don't know why the two replies already here can't be made visible, so no idea if they already addressed what I'm about to write. Cluster munitions were in full use already in the Second world war, usually with anti-clearing fuzes installed. Asymmetric warfare has little to nothing to do with the bad reputation, it is all about the high number of latent explosives scattered over wide areas. Worth noting here, the high number of duds were for a long time regarded as an advantage, increasing the efficiency of the initial strike by in effect deploying a mine-field on top of the casualties and denying the area unless substantial disposal efforts were made by the enemy side. Given that we still have annual casualties in Western Europe from Great War OXA, it's not hard to see why organisations who fought to ban personnel mines also seek to get rid of cluster munitions... Personally, I do not agree with Sweden signing the convention banning cluster munitions unless exceptions were written in to permit munitions that demonstrative goes inert after a given time, as that deprived us of the Bombkapsel 90, that was supposed to be the heavy ground attack component for the Swedish airforce. Developed in cooperation with Germany, it featured electric ignition of the bomblets that would become totally safe (well, to the extent any insensitive explosives are safe at least) as soon as the batteries self-discharged in a few weeks. Another commenter described an American system where water-dissolvable plastic covering water-sensitive explosives would render the bomblets safe after 100 cm of precipitation, another route to avoid sustaining casualties decades after the conflict has ended.

@xBINARYGODx 11 ай бұрын

@@johanmetreus1268 the two you dont see are either blocked after someone reported them for some reason OR (more likely I believe) its that wonderful KZfaq bug where more replies than are actually there are counted, so you see 1 reply where there is none or, like here, 4 when there is 2. (as of and including my post)

@Glumpsy 11 ай бұрын

@@xBINARYGODx Nobody has to report it. KZfaq removes comments it doesn't like the moment they're posted. May have a bad word, may touch a "forbidden" topic. Happens quite often.

@glenndean6 11 ай бұрын

Correction: DPICM = Dual Purpose, Improved Conventional Munition. The original ICM (Improved Conventional Munition) was "improved" over conventional HE shells by shifting to anti-personnel cluster munitions. "DP" introduced the shaped charges to give them anti-vehicle capability. Interestingly -- setting aside public debate on dud rate and UXO -- most of the effectiveness debate has missed the most critical value for the Ukrainians: counter-battery. Yes, DPICM is effective against infantry formations in the open, less so against infantry in fortifications, somewhat effective against heavy armored formations if massed, and (despite much public speculation) useless against mine obstacles. It's fantastically effective against artillery of all types, and especially the more lightly protected support systems (ammo trucks) and rocket launchers. The entire Assault Breaker concept that M270 and the like were developed under, to separate and defeat the waves of Soviet Army attacks into Western Europe, were built on cluster rounds to balance the Soviet advantage in fires. Glad you highlighted it.

@PerunAU 11 ай бұрын

Regarding the error, I cringed when I heard the playback and realised what I'd done - I've attached a correction.

@nehorlavazapalka 11 ай бұрын

@@PerunAU The DPICM round is only about 3× more effective than conventional HE. The spread of the fragments so low on the ground leaves a lot to be desired - you're looking in the 15 000 effective fragments range. So, very good but I'd take the "13×" claims as more of a myth.

@JohnSmith-pm3ew 11 ай бұрын

@@nehorlavazapalkawhere did you get those numbers?

@jurgnobs1308 11 ай бұрын

@@JohnSmith-pm3ew my source is, I made it the fuck up!

@lukebandolino882 11 ай бұрын

If the supplied DPICM will allow Ukrainians to shoot 3x times more shells, and if each shell is 3x times more effective than regular unitary shells, then Ukrainian artillery firepower will increase almost 10x times.

@lizavanzyl6195 11 ай бұрын

As a left-leaning feminist retired astrophysicist, I would never in 10^9 years have expected that the highlight of my weeks would become the Sunday PowerPoint on military procurement & economics. These presentations are extraordinary good @perun, you should consider doing this full time.

@Moonless6491 11 ай бұрын

Don't get too excited about men killing each other

@LukeBunyip 11 ай бұрын

I have the sneaking suspicion that what Perun posts is the military analyst's equivalent to a lawyer's pro bono work. He consistently defines the lane in which he's planning to drive, and he skillfully communicating complex ideas on a variety of (admittedly linked) disciplines. For me, it feels like a well honed skill and knowledge set. I'm not saying he's working for Emutopia, but hey...

@lizavanzyl6195 11 ай бұрын

@lukebunyip I suspect you are spot on! 😂

@lizavanzyl6195 11 ай бұрын

@moonless6491 LOL😂😂😂😂

@ChucksSEADnDEAD 11 ай бұрын

It has been heavily implied he works somewhere related to Australian military procurement as he has stated he cannot make videos about Australia due to his regular 9 to 5 job.

@johncnorris 11 ай бұрын

The people who point to the agreement that some nations have about cluster munitions being considered too messy to deal with after a war may want to reconsider this situation. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons after it signed a peace treaty with multiple nations under the assumption that they (Russia) would not attack them. After being attacked and invaded twice in the past decade it's time to give up on the idea that reducing any post-war damage will happen. It's a bad sign for the future when a nation gives up its nuclear deterrent and gets the scorched Earth treatment.

@brianmead7556 11 ай бұрын

Russia was under the impression Ukraine would be a friendly country and the west wouldn’t continue to field an army of 3 1/2 million anti-Russian fanatics pointed directly at its homeland through Ukraine, which it would corrupt to turn hostile!

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

ukraine never had nuclear weapons, the ussr had nuke stationed there, the kremlin controlled them. and it was the us that couped ukraine in 2014.

@StoutShako 11 ай бұрын

So true. And having your land robbed and occupied is much more than a Flesh Wound...

@fugyfruit 11 ай бұрын

I have a strong feeling that when this war is over Ukraine is going to go to a lot of effort to get its deterrent back

@user-mu9ke9ex9f 11 ай бұрын

If the Ukrainians did not give up its nuclear warheads, they would have sold them to the Taliban or whoever paid the highest price. This has happened to much of their Soviet weapons. People in the West have no idea about the levels of corruption and irresponsibility inside Ukraine. Nuclear armed Ukraine was a much bigger problem to NATO and US then it was to Russia. It was the US, which brokered the deal to disarm Ukraine

@imogen1 11 ай бұрын

Speaking as an American, our emotional support ammunition is important to us and we have a doctor's note saying we're allowed to take it with us anywhere we go.

@holyknightthatpwns 11 ай бұрын

Ha, we can't afford going to doctors, spent too much on the ammunition

@shorewall 11 ай бұрын

@@holyknightthatpwns Worth it. :D

@jessehachey2732 11 ай бұрын

@@shorewall Pathetic 😳🤦🏼‍♂️

@filanfyretracker 11 ай бұрын

@@holyknightthatpwns America a leading supplier in unhealthcare.

@steemlenn8797 11 ай бұрын

I invoke the second amendmend for rifle mounted cluster munition!

@hillogical 11 ай бұрын

C does not stand for "cluster". C stands for "conventional". 13B 01-07. I used these in Iraq in 2003. The dual purpose part allows for a point detonation like a regular HE round. We trained with HE, and fought with DPICM. They're far more flexible.

@PerunAU 11 ай бұрын

Yes - caught this after uploading which was too late - I've attached a correction but should not have made the mistake.

@hillogical 11 ай бұрын

@@PerunAU Awesome! Glad you noted the correction!

@rippspeck 11 ай бұрын

@@PerunAU KZfaq should bring back that annotation feature.

@Shenaldrac 11 ай бұрын

@@rippspeck It really, really should.

@jdcoverland365 11 ай бұрын

@@PerunAU SIr, Thank you for contributing to my thread. I hold my Sunday dinner back until you upload starts, Thank you for your dedication to suck an huge task. dave

@alanholck7995 11 ай бұрын

Churchill, reflecting on his experience as Minister of Armaments Production in WW1, said concerning ammunition production- ‘When you start expanding production, the first year you get nothing. By the end of the second year, you are getting some. Third year you get quite a bit, and the fourth you get massive amounts.’

@robgrey6183 11 ай бұрын

And, in the fifth year, after the war ends, you cancel all the contracts and send your economy into a deep recession.

@kti5682 11 ай бұрын

This explains a few things, let's hope the next guy in office doesn't break it all.

@kimweaver1252 11 ай бұрын

@@kti5682 Which is why we are keeping the one we have. The only safe bet.

@Legitpenguins99 11 ай бұрын

Basically what happens when you allocate additional factories in HOI 4

@thoralexander9387 11 ай бұрын

Yep, that much you can see in US production for WWII, peaked in 1944 even though the greatest need was in 1942.

@philippajoy4300 11 ай бұрын

Shame the points of the 'first' episode werent taken as seriously in allied capitals as they might, because a year ago you made a good case that this was an artillery conflict and shortages would hark back to 1915. I suppose human nature always wants wars to be over quicker than they are, but this seems a case where we could genuinely have learned from history and fot ahead of the curve. Lets hope the lesson has been learned. Thanks.

@hazzardalsohazzard2624 11 ай бұрын

Next time there is a war, we need to write to our politicians to warn them. Nothing else seems to remind them of a shell crisis

@Destroyer_V0 11 ай бұрын

HAH! Nope. Keeping all those artilery shell factories, cranking out ammunition we don't need running? That's expensive. Both for the companies who are producing a product that no one needs. Or the goverment/taxpayers, if it is directly funding the production of a shell excess. What I do hope, is when the war is over, the higher capacity is maintained, even if left unused.

@pirminp7090 11 ай бұрын

@@Destroyer_V0i think he meant that its a shame that production didnt increase sooner :) Cause politicans thought the stockpiles would last long enough for this war

@Destroyer_V0 11 ай бұрын

@@pirminp7090 While that certainly is one interpretation. More damning is the thought that we would NEVER need such a basic thing like artilleries ammunition in the vast quantities seen in prior wars, ever again.

@theotherohlourdespadua1131 11 ай бұрын

Everyone wants a short war for many reasons. Prolonged wars are very unpopular since the days of the Punic Wars. George Washington nearly got sacked as the Continental Army CO for doing nothing between his defeats in Brandywine and Germantown in the autumn of 1777 until his controversial victory in Monmouth in the summer of 1778. We even have recent examples with Iraq and Afghanistan...

@Nazdravetikva 11 ай бұрын

A video looking at Warsaw Pact countries, like Bulgaria, Czechia or Romania, and their production and resupply for Ukraine would be great. I’m especially interested in the reports that domestic manufacturers (in Bulgaria) have been supplying a significant portion of ammo for Ukraine. Also the clandestine operations that were undertaken by Russia in places like Czechia against ammo depots. I think it would be a perfect topic surrounding defence economics, a favoured topic on this channel.

@AkiseAk 11 ай бұрын

I must commend your foresight, or rather expertise, when six months ago you said that a massive probable change that the US could enact in this war would be the provision of cluster munitions despite international scepticism towards those. I am curious to see how you think this may impact the conflict going forward and as always, thank you for providing such high quality analysis

@EnDianNeo 11 ай бұрын

The main thing is that cluster munitions are better in the fire support and counter battery role because it requires fewer guns to output the same amount of firepower. The counterpoint is that cluster munitions are less "reliable" than conventional rounds and you will have more unexploded ordnance in the target coordinate.

@andrewhawkins6754 11 ай бұрын

More cluster munitions -> better counter battery fire -> less Russian artillery -> less harassment when clearing mine fields -> quicker counter offensive -> quicker end to the war. 3 million rounds would go a long way towards giving Ukraine at least local fires superiority, which would allow a breakthrough or at least moderate but steady advances.

@tellyboy17 11 ай бұрын

Imagine the progress Ukraine had made if the White House hippies had send those 6 months ago rather than bewailing the imaginary problem of unexploded bomblets in war zones that need to be completely cleaned of unexploded ordnance anyway.

@Dfthg-bz3hp 11 ай бұрын

@@tellyboy17oh well,beggars can't be choosers

@jeckjeck3119 11 ай бұрын

@@andrewhawkins6754 2 million should be given to Ukraine, not like US military will ever use those.

@priyan605 11 ай бұрын

Even with so many new and modern systems, Artillery still is the king of the battlefield.

@stc3145 11 ай бұрын

Because none have massed air power.

@ironstarofmordian7098 11 ай бұрын

@sdkfs200 it is best to have both responsive, precise, massed artillery and massed air power, but you're not wrong.

@priyan605 11 ай бұрын

@@stc3145 Mass air power to the point it can replace artillery is simply unfeasible for any country that isn't the USA and maybe China.

@stc3145 11 ай бұрын

@@priyan605 Russia on paper, should be able to as well.

@priyan605 11 ай бұрын

@@stc3145 You're right but only on paper. We've seen that they can't in Ukraine.

@john_in_phoenix 11 ай бұрын

Thanks for the perspective and information to help understand the use of cluster munitions. One fact really stood out, the 5 most populous nations did not sign the treaty. It is noble intentions that are not reciprocated by our enemies, and effectively makes you fight with one hand tied behind your back. Like outlawing war by the League of Nations, it doesn't take many to undo the best and most noble of intentions.

@Rybc 11 ай бұрын

Your content is do detailed, well researched, and expertly presented. You somehow manage to inject a little humor into dark or dry topics as well. Just wanted to give props for all your hard work!

@xlerb_again_to_music7908 11 ай бұрын

My father told me this story in the 1970s; he was in signals in WW2, part of the push towards Arnhem. He was relaying landline telephone fire orders to an artillery section. A German training ground had not realised they were in artillery range from the advancing Allies; they used to turn out every morning at 9am onto a hard-standing concrete parade ground. One morning, they were visited at c. 9:02 by a couple of AP rounds from a corps shoot (80 barrels?), then a couple of air-burst shrapnel from the same guns. This killed c. 400 blokes and the regimental mascot. The initial AP barrage did a great job of "plowing" the concrete into large, misshapen sections of concrete at mad angles. They could not run over this ground to take cover; apparently many of the troops had broken ankles too from (via concrete) shock waves.

@heetheet75 11 ай бұрын

that's terrible

@karldubhe8619 11 ай бұрын

@@heetheet75 No, that wasn't terrible. It would have been terrible if Allied troops were in that situation, but not the Nazis.

@kemarisite 11 ай бұрын

It would have been terrible if it was in the 1970s, but the actual event was during the war, so it was Tuesday.

@koboldparty4708 11 ай бұрын

@@karldubhe8619tbf, I myself read “1970s” but somehow missed the “In ww2” part, so they might’ve done the same, and assumed that this was some sort of horrible training accident.

@FulloutPostal 11 ай бұрын

couple weeks ago a russian general decided to inspire his troops with a speech and had everyone assemble. but he was so late that by the time he actually arrived, a ukrainian drone had spotted the troops and they sent a single glmrs, killing ~200 moscovites

@Flyingjaffacake 11 ай бұрын

Perfect timing. About to take a 2 hour flight... Smashing that download button 😅

@Shenaldrac 11 ай бұрын

You lucky SOB, only having a two hour flight. All the air travel I have to do is 5-6 hour flights! XD

@EdgarAllanPoenvrmr 11 ай бұрын

54:35 "The Soviet Union was the Soviet Union." -Perun, 2023 Like him or not, he's spitting straight facts.

@hurgcat 10 ай бұрын

the floor is made of floor

@zverroboi 11 ай бұрын

Great video as always. What was missing was a look back on the Ukrainian ammonution stocks from before 2014. Dr. Philip Karber from the Potomac Foundation made some well informed statements on that subject. Accidents and/or sabotage by very cheap means in ukrainian ammo depots lead to the loss of reportedly hundreds of thousands of tons (not rounds, tons) of mostly artillery ammunition. Such acts of sabotage continued between 2015 and 2022 and were to me always a sign, that Russia kept preparing for an (even) bigger campaign against Ukraine. Then there was a series of incidents outside Ukraine over the years. Depots and production facilities for soviet calibre ammunition across Eastern Europe were also attacked - as far as is known by the GRU. Someone in Moscow was preparing for the contingency that conquering Ukraine could become 'messy'.

@johanmetreus1268 11 ай бұрын

Add to that the explosions in Bulgaria, Romania and other countries with stockpiles of Soviet calibres.

@Michael_OBrian 11 ай бұрын

Perun, I went back and watched your “All Bling, No Basics” video again and I have to say that you’ve come a long way since then and I’m glad I’ve had the privilege to watch your channel grow so much.

@eniooliveira9196 11 ай бұрын

His production did improve, but I'd say his analytical skills and military knowledge were shown to be already pretty sharp at that point.

@allamasadi7970 11 ай бұрын

@@eniooliveira9196the all blings no basics is a classic, such a great video

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

you've watched him improve the propaganda.

@lukaf5 11 ай бұрын

Thanks you for your input, User-BunchOfAlphanumerics. However, you need to remove 'ru' from your name before you get your 50 rubles.

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

@@lukaf5 is that how you get paid?

@thehaberdash 11 ай бұрын

I feel like we are going to underestimate the power of a tactical PowerPoint

@ulrikschackmeyer848 11 ай бұрын

Well, yes. Death by PowerPoint, seems to be most eminent in the hands of a hack. But with this particular artist I don't see a problem.😂

@michaelimbesi2314 11 ай бұрын

The line “Some systems like Grad are basically just a block of explosive rockets on the back of a truck. So much as tickle those things and they’re gonna cook harder than a Texas barbecue” actually had me laughing out loud.

@judithcampbell1705 11 ай бұрын

Thank you 💛 Perun for your excellent work. I won't pretend to know all the particulars of the weapons. But I will say that it is not up to us to decide what is best for Ukraine to use in defense. If they are asking for things to help them defend themselves, then we have an obligation to provide them with whatever they want and need. Hell, they are the ones doing the deed. They are the ones who are fighting the bear, instead of us. We must be grateful!

@jackbailey7037 11 ай бұрын

If they ask for an atom bomb, we must give it !?!

@jtgd 11 ай бұрын

Some people truly forget THIS IS WAR. This isn’t normal peacetime where civilians are the primary focus. Especially when dealing with an invader who openly suggests your ethnicity doesn’t exist, and you’re Russian, and you must not fight back, or else civilians die, but not the Russians killing the civilians. This is the difficult decisions in war

@emilsinclair4190 11 ай бұрын

? Civilians are the priority in war.

@snapdragon6601 11 ай бұрын

I think for the Ukrainians, the addition of cluster munitions to their arsenal was a pretty easy decision. It was only in some Western countries that it was a difficult one. 👍🙂

@tellyboy17 11 ай бұрын

Took some time to realize that unexploded bomblets are better than unexploded Russians.

@snapdragon6601 11 ай бұрын

@@tellyboy17 It may have taken the US all this time to make that connection but I think Ukraine realized it within the first month of the invasion last year and began requesting them soon afterwards. They've just been waiting for the approval and delivery up until now.

@thunderspark1536 11 ай бұрын

@@emilsinclair4190No, they're not. Survival of the country is always foremost, or we wouldn't have drafts.

@andyl8055 11 ай бұрын

If Ukraine falters because Russia manages to outproduce the combined economies of the West... Well, let's just say I might develop Forest Whitaker eye.

@jeckjeck3119 11 ай бұрын

And go in to politics as a war daddy just to make sure it NEVER happens again.

@shadowlord1418 11 ай бұрын

Its not being outprodused its how much they are willing to donate

@doomslayer4276 11 ай бұрын

@@shadowlord1418europe is literally getting stripped , only china can outproduce em all

@nickcruz8748 10 ай бұрын

"...take turns trying to forge each others' signature." 😂😂😂 Thanks for my best laugh in days. It's just awesome.

@clutteredchicagogarage2720 11 ай бұрын

This was the most informed, most logical and most thoughtful discussion of delivery of DPICM to Ukraine from any media source that I have come across in the past couple months. I won’t comment in detail on any of your insights because I pretty much agree with all of them. One small comment on my end where I would add a thought- at the end you said that if you were giving Ukraine a military aid package and could choose any systems, you would focus on artillery and throw in some storm shadow, gmlrs, etc. i would just add that throwing in a small amount for munitions that could be deployed from fpv drones would also be a cheap and productive use of resources. Do I think that fpv drones are better than gmlrs at counter battery fire? No. They’re probably inferior to dpicm for that as well. But they quite good at hitting grad systems and self-propelled artillery systems, and they’re better than gmlrs for stopping moving targets like tanks, bmps, and trucks full of fuel or munitions. So if you can deliver a few thousand munitions that can be strapped to an fpv, you can probably save tens of thousands of rounds of artillery that would be expended trying to hit moving targets. The fpv drones often don’t completely destroy, for example, a t90 tank, but if they hit the rear then they can stop the tank, the crew often abandons the tank, and then it’s much easier to hit with artillery or cheap drone-dropped grenades once it’s not moving and its top hatches are left open. So just as dpicm rounds allow Ukraine to expend fewer conventional artillery rounds and barrels, substituting fpv drones with rpg warheads can also slow the depreciation rate of artillery barrels and shells. I know that you also understand this since I watched your video on drones, but I thought i would mention it explicitly in a comment since you didn’t mention the benefits of this particular role for cheap fpv drones (and also sometimes bigger munition-dropping drones on some battlefields) as a substitute for artillery. Thanks for making this great video!

@theOrionsarms 11 ай бұрын

Well classical artillery is more efficient in propellant usage than rocket artillery, and what most people losses is that the expensive part (the barrel)is reusable up to few thausen times, but when you fire a rocket, the most expensive part (the casing and the nozzle)is throw away every time, so if you have a war that is longer than few weeks, artillery is only option, unless you have absolute air superiority.

@VladVexler 11 ай бұрын

Looking forward to this!

@PerunAU 11 ай бұрын

your video on the morality of CMs is on my to watch list - I'm very aware that I come at this from a certain frame of analysis, and I'm interested to see how you approached the question.

@m.streicher8286 11 ай бұрын

I used to think covert cabal was the junk food of defense entertainment, but he's put in a lot of valuable work to be honest.

@simonrodehn8678 11 ай бұрын

Perun, you continue to excel. Today I concluded that a major draw to your work is the ease of understanding which your audio choices present. Your sound levels, your tone, your inflections and emphasis is first class bar none. I fear that those who need translation loose some of this. Give your sound guy a raise.

@antonnurwald5700 11 ай бұрын

He doesn't Excel. He Power Points.

@kalervolatoniittu2011 11 ай бұрын

Jeez i just guess he is some kinda highly developed ai-unit 😆

@simonrodehn8678 11 ай бұрын

@@kalervolatoniittu2011 I suggested just this earlier on. That he was really AI. So much work comes from this guy it really is incredible. I look forward eagerly to his presentations. His following has grown phenomenally. I’ve been subscribed since around the 18,000 member mark.

@simonrodehn8678 11 ай бұрын

@@antonnurwald5700 😜

@simonrodehn8678 11 ай бұрын

@@antonnurwald5700 excellent point !

@exharkhun5605 11 ай бұрын

As most objections against cluster munitions seem to be that they're difficult to clear up once the war is over, and since the war is fought on Ukrainian soil, I'd say let the Ukie's themselves decide. It's not like the stuff is especially immoral (compared to everything else), it's just a nuisance.

@Michael-bh9ss 11 ай бұрын

I think it make be the other way around? The US may have said you HAVE to clean it up afterwards If you want them?

@harrymoyes5069 11 ай бұрын

I doubt they are as hard to sweep as anti personnel mines. The bomb-lets are metallic. The risk to civilians is very different in Ukraine. All the battlefields will be utterly lethal from AT tank mines, AT personnel mines, and massive amounts of deeply embedded dud ordinance. The extra hazard posed by dud bomb-lets is trivial compared to the other hazards already laying about the battlefield. The post war cleanup task will be immense, failed cluster munitions will be a trivial component of that clean up. I'm unclear on the failure rate of Russian 152 mm shells, but they have fired them in millions. The bomb-lets are scattered on the surface, not intentionally camouflaged, and metallic.

@exharkhun5605 11 ай бұрын

@@Michael-bh9ss The stuff falls on their own soil, they have every incentive to clean it up. In fact, a lot of Ukraine is prime agricultural soil, it's worth a lot of money per acre. After the war I see some companies do quite well developing technologies to automate cleaning up the mess.

@tezzy5584 11 ай бұрын

"it's not a warcrime when our guys do it"

@exharkhun5605 11 ай бұрын

@@tezzy5584 Well, apart from war being a crime in general, this isn't. Although I understand your frustration. My personal gripe is how the enemy always seems to use Kamikaze Drones (ew.. sounds insidious) while our side only uses very friendly innocent sounding Loitering Ammunitions.

@ethannilsson9638 11 ай бұрын

Ryan McBeth has suggested the Ukrainians are likely to crack open many of the DPICM rounds and use the 88 sub-munitions as drone ordinance.

@SirAntoniousBlock 11 ай бұрын

Either/either deliver them one by one or in bulk it's all good.

@gabrich1991 11 ай бұрын

is one way other way can be shell minefields cluster should be able t explode them and what ever UXO remains shouldn't be a problem fro armor theoretical ofc

@pRahvi0 11 ай бұрын

"One of the best artillery equipped [CCM] signatories is Japan < beat > ...which is also an island." I love the script of your presentations but I love your delivery of it even more.

@TheCSClassroom 11 ай бұрын

Great video so far on a topic of critical importance. Just my 2 cents - I think a future video should definitely cover mines - historical uses, and mining and demining techniques. Particularly in Zaporizhia, I think that this has become a key factor on a strategic level.

@paulflocken2730 11 ай бұрын

Ryan McBeth has a mine video you may get something out of.

@collemwillst1810 11 ай бұрын

I second this, he has a great, comprehensive video on it

@marcoherrmann1820 11 ай бұрын

Thanks for the Update Perun. Greetings from Germany,Slava Ukraine

@ozymandiasultor9480 11 ай бұрын

Sure, "slava ukraine"...The USA managed to destroy your economy, convinced you that Russia is dangerous no matter that Russia does what the US did in Serbia, The USA destroyed your relation with your natural economic ally Russia and since you were so smart you have no nuclear energy and now you are dependant on that little expensive fossil fuel USA can give you... You are not even aware how easily The USA destroyed Ukraine, tried to weaken Russia, and made us all in Europe suffer... Go scream Slava Ukraine... That will be of great help to your economy.

@AndrewFrantz-hn2zy 10 ай бұрын

after religiously watching your videos for the last 15 months or so it would be presumptuous of me to offer any advice on what is already one of the best researched and unbiased presentation on the internet .. so my advice is to please keep doing EXACTLY what YOU think is best .. thank you for all your effort .. it certainly goes without saying that our understanding of the level of complexity associated with this international situation has been greatly enhanced as a result of your personal dedication to the truth ..

@errorcrj110 11 ай бұрын

"...circling like a band of particularly murderous paparazzi..." I believe the scale from least to most murderous is: Seagulls Stymphalian birds (see: Labours of Heracles) Murder hornets Recon drones Paparazzi

@Punishthefalse 11 ай бұрын

... Let's train seagulls for warfare.

@michalandrejmolnar3715 11 ай бұрын

It's really the biggest game changer until now - unlocking the reserve of cluster munitions with the US.

@alexboccaccio5431 11 ай бұрын

@@aleekamuiyeah no, not a soul this side of the north Atlantic has claimed that.

@dx-ek4vr 11 ай бұрын

We still need to get ATACMS and F-16s into Ukraine

@rwilson1125 11 ай бұрын

Consider this a means of reducing the US inventory.

@scoobydoobers23 11 ай бұрын

@@aleekamuiHave you never watched a game before? The momentum and pacing changes all the time. If one side keeps the momentum long enough they usually win. Cluster munitions increasing available shell counts helps Ukraine keep the momentum.

@michalandrejmolnar3715 11 ай бұрын

@@user-ll7lf9pg1t I think those past game changers contributed significantly to Ukraine surviving up until now and having the propaganda and Initiative edge.

@quanganhvu6791 11 ай бұрын

Who else has a weekly routine of meal prepping while listening to Perun's video in the background?

@Flyingjaffacake 11 ай бұрын

I've definitely cooked to this. Perun prep challenge: Can you finish a week's prep in 1 presentation 😁💪

@ozymandiasultor9480 11 ай бұрын

Meal prepping?

@quanganhvu6791 11 ай бұрын

@@Flyingjaffacake legit have tried that

@occamraiser 11 ай бұрын

Sunday is becoming the highlight of my week, with an hour + of knowledgeable relevant and witty discussion of the current indefensible invasion of Ukraine. Thanks for another excellent analysis Perun.

@edmundgennings3025 11 ай бұрын

It is getting a little embarrassing how much I look forward to a new episode each week and how quickly I listen to it after it gets released

@cpt_nordbart 11 ай бұрын

Can't wait for the next bridge episode!

@stephane1952 11 ай бұрын

Perun deserves his own youtube branded convoy in Kyiv if Ukraine wins this war. Amazing commentary, analysis, slide decks, and arguments.

@erikaberg2017 11 ай бұрын

True, impressive details and insights - however, in short I guess we can agree that it’s not a matter IF Ukraine wins the war, but instead WHEN… the positive trend will only grow stronger

@antonnurwald5700 11 ай бұрын

There will be an ammunition supply truck with his logo on it at the victory parade.

@brianmead7556 11 ай бұрын

Nothing but pure Nazi propaganda.

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

the goebles convoy?

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

@@erikaberg2017 ukraine can't win, the only way that russia is not winning is if nato intervenes directly. and if that happens russia is going to turn nato into a radioactive parking lot, it would be mad.

@Yora21 11 ай бұрын

"A bullet has your name on it. An artillery shell goes 'to who it may concern'."

@punksci6879 11 ай бұрын

I really want to watch a round table of you Beau and Lazar Pig, discussing logistics and specifically the "quantity has a quality of it's own" question.

@collemwillst1810 11 ай бұрын

Dear sir, nice to meet you at this intersection!

@johanmetreus1268 11 ай бұрын

Not sure what you think Lazer Pig has to contribute to such a discussion, as he's just another shitposter regurgitating the latest trends.

@loah_1 11 ай бұрын

Beau, Kraut and Perun on the NAFO roundtable would be great

@elektronneutrino5003 11 ай бұрын

Yes, another 1+ hour powerpoint session ! (never thought I would feel that way before)

@danielmontanez7650 11 ай бұрын

I'm still in the middle of watching the whole thing, but I've noticed that from min 5:23 to min 6:12 the audio turned a little bad (I double checked with my phone, just in case I was hearing things). I'm guessing that the recording software messed up while exporting the audio file or something. The comment is just to highlight the issue to Perun, not meant to downplay any effort around the making of this video. Have a nice day, everyone.

@PerunAU 11 ай бұрын

always good to note audio issues! especially if they don't come through on my hardware.

@rosssmith7753 11 ай бұрын

There's an old saying among soldiers: Don't worry about the bullet with your name on it, worry about all that shrapnel addressed to "Occupant".

@victorhernandez9169 11 ай бұрын

Actually it is addressed "To whom it may concern!"

@Pyrotech777 11 ай бұрын

I’m at the point where I like every video you publish before I even watch it. Only channel that gets that from me haha. Thank you for the time and effort you put in. Appreciate you massively 🙏🏽

@dennistate5953 10 ай бұрын

Densely detailed deductively dynamic, Dude! Dig it!

@peterides9568 11 ай бұрын

You're the only game changer we need mate.

@levanaah 11 ай бұрын

This one!!!! ☝️

@BrettBaker-uk4te 11 ай бұрын

"Our Man in Canberra"!

@williamlloyd3769 11 ай бұрын

NY Times article dated July 16, 2023 points out how difficult mines are making the Ukrainian offense. PS - It’s interesting that the majority of news stories on cluster munitions don’t mention that Russians have been using similar weapons since day one. PS2 - Wonder if Ukraine could take a few artillery shells and repackage bomblets as a warhead for a drone attacking a ship or fuel farm in Sevastopol?

@aaronwalsh8469 11 ай бұрын

Ukrainian officials were asking for cluster munitions months ago for that purpose . Wanting do us the bomblets on drones.

@zadovrus1624 11 ай бұрын

I keep hearing that Russians used CMs, yet I can't never see the source. I've seen both sides use phosphor weapons, I've seen Ukrainians use leaf-mines on Donetsk, I've seen Russian cruise missiles fall on civilian sectors, yet I've never heard about Russians using CMs. Ukrainian propaganda doesn't let anything go like that, I doubt it ever happened and people just making shit up.

@iroll 11 ай бұрын

In fact, there are a bunch of breathless headlines in western media (Reuters, CNN) about how Russia "will use" cluster munitions if the Ukrainians do.

@bluemarlin8138 11 ай бұрын

Bomblets would probably only do superficial damage to a ship. They’d probably penetrate the deck and the bridge roof, but ships are so large that they wouldn’t hit anything that would actually sink the ship. They might get lucky and hit a missile launcher and set off the warhead, but that’s.....well....it actually might be likely on a Ruzzian ship. Against fuel tanks, cluster munitions would probably be very effective. But you still have to get them there, and Ukraine unfortunately didn’t get the Storm Shadow variants that can hit Sevastopol.

@trolleriffic 11 ай бұрын

@@bluemarlin8138 They could trash things like radars and communications antennae, and could potentially set off weapons stored on deck such as torpedoes.

@GG-yr5ix 11 ай бұрын

This is one of the best episodes you have put out in the last year! Thanks so much for your work!

@nancyhope2205 11 ай бұрын

I have to tell you that I am very grateful to you for your videos. I appreciate your calm rational and factual delivery. More power to your Elbow! Thank you.

@Cancun771 11 ай бұрын

The worst "technical" conversion I've seen was a pick-up truck with four grad launcher barrels on the bed, one of which seemed to have been converted to some sort of sighting device. And it was touted as some sort of command post sniping weapon even though all you can do in the way of aiming is basically hope the unguided grad rockets will hit the right post code.

@ChucksSEADnDEAD 11 ай бұрын

I wonder if the sighting device was a few bolts ground to fine points like in Fallout 4 pipe weapons.

@kasmiller9289 11 ай бұрын

Thanks for all your work Perun. I look forward to this every week.

@frans-jozefhendrickx2267 11 ай бұрын

My main issue with a Perun "lecture" is not "death by PP" but the comments (class discussions) section 10 hours after the drop needing 2-3 times longer than the original video. Later gets worse. The discussions around these videos are an example of the "Wisdom of Crowd" effect. While not all comments are constructive and a lot are funny there are well considered expert responses, informed speculations and shared experiences offered. Beyond the value of the original content is the communal knowledge, both offered and received. We, as students of "military" logistics and procurment (Perunites) have some understanding of the realities of war and an ability to filter the histrionics of main stream media but we need the Human perspective Perun reminds us of. Other providers offer moral, political and behavioral understandings. Thus we need to round out our education in the realities of war with the realities of peoples! So whenever we find similar quality content in these areas please mention it, thank you.

@johanmetreus1268 11 ай бұрын

If you aren't already familiar with them, the interviews Willy OAM made with soldiers from both sides are remarkable. Vlad Vexler, INSIDE RUSSIA and 1420 are also worth some time.

@TsunamiKitten 10 ай бұрын

As always: Excellent analysis and delivery! TY!

@SpookyEng1 11 ай бұрын

Your insightful analysis is rare and welcomed, I can’t wait for your updates each week!

@TrangleC 11 ай бұрын

One thing that has to be considered though when assessing the difference in value or worth of towed guns versus self propelled guns is that towed guns usually are manned by a crew of 7 to 10 people, while SPGs have a crew of 3 to 4. So every lost towed gun - doesn't have to, but might - imply much higher casualties.

@johnbarrett915 11 ай бұрын

On the other hand, crews stand to stay away from the artillery piece when not firing it, which is likely to decrease casualties!

@TrangleC 11 ай бұрын

@@johnbarrett915 They are not staying that far away that the hit of a 152mm round that kills the gun would not also likely kill the crew.

@johnbarrett915 11 ай бұрын

@@TrangleC Oh they are and do stay away. Crews aren't stupid. They don't stand next to the artillery system unless they absolutely bloody well have to. By the way, that's impressively quick upvoting you do for yourself...

@kalervolatoniittu2011 11 ай бұрын

Surely they dig foxholes for themselves and learn better camo for their positions

@juliusEST 11 ай бұрын

@@kalervolatoniittu2011 counter battery radar doesnt care about camo. If you perform a fire mission as an artillety piece, once you are finished you leave the premise as there is a very high probability of receiving some shells back at you in the following minute(s).

@Ess666 10 ай бұрын

Superb report. It's very difficult to get good information but this type of analysis goes a long way to understanding how it will pan out on a military / industrial basis. It takes a lot of work, much appreciated

@jojoandroses 11 ай бұрын

Thank you Perun for another informative and thoughtful video. My son and I look forward to your videos every week and we always learn something new.

@goatmealcookies7421 11 ай бұрын

If the Ukrainians are willing to use the cluster munitions in their own territory, then let them. And give them the f16s already. Its all well and good for our western politicians to dither, after all, they are safe at night

@hyhhy 11 ай бұрын

Hey here's an idea, give them chemical weapons too. If they kill only their "own" people and Russians with them, it must be okay, right?

@FLUFFYCAT_PNW 11 ай бұрын

I absolutely love your channel, fine sir. Thank you so much for taking the time to share this knowledge with us. It has greatly expanded my understanding of this war, and war in general. Thank you, kindly. I hope your well.

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

it's mostly propaganda tho.

@MeeesterBond17 11 ай бұрын

@@user-ot3wq2ru5d Please clarify. Perun uses Russian and Ukrainian sources, but is sceptical of both.

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

@@MeeesterBond17 perun uses russian sources and then proceeds to mock them, he then bases his analysis taking western sources at mostly face value, especially orix.

@MeeesterBond17 11 ай бұрын

@@user-ot3wq2ru5d I mean, if they will claim to have shot down 150% of all Ukrainian aircraft, then post a gray-scale screenshot from Tiberium Assault when claiming to have destroyed a HIMARS system, they deserve mockery, wouldn't you say? And no, he's not taking Oryx at face value. He admits there's a lot of data duplication, but that the team take down duplicates as soon as they're pointed out. That explains why lost vehicle numbers sometimes go down, not up. Plus, visually verified losses are always going to be lower than real losses, so it's safe to use them without any massive fear of over-claiming lost Russian vehicles.

@user-ot3wq2ru5d 11 ай бұрын

@@MeeesterBond17 *, if they will claim to have shot down 150% of all Ukrainian aircraft,* when perun said the early aid packages should contain "build your own mig parts" and when they're sending f-16 instead of plane ukranians can fly, why is it weird that more planes have been shot? *then post a gray-scale screenshot from Tiberium Assault when claiming to have destroyed a HIMARS system* not different from the times ukraine and lame stream media have used videos from videogames to claim they downed russian planes, and far from the ghost of kiev, the evacuation of azovstal or iraq's wmds. and yet he takes those at face value. *he's not taking Oryx at face value* *visually verified losses are always going to be lower than real losses, so it's safe to use them without any massive fear of over-claiming lost Russian vehicles.* isn't that perun's argument? because it argues to take oryx at face value or close to it *but that the team take down duplicates as soon as they're pointed out.* which is not nearly enough when there's a concerted propaganda effort to feed them ukranian tank as russian and many duplicates of russian ones

@callogic5341 11 ай бұрын

Thank you for an extremely detailed and balanced report. In all the fog of media, it is reassuring to read a non biased assessment of this conflict. I especially appreciate your detailed analysis and explanation of the fiscal, industrial and bureaucratic (sic - govt) effect that this conflict has affected. To state that this conflict has not effected the western world is (in my viewpoint) misinformed and misleading. Your analysis is exact, informative and enlightening. 👍🏻

@patricknakasone9376 11 ай бұрын

It should also be mentioned that frequently, there is little to no penalty if a nation withdraws from an arms limitation treaty.

@IT_Farhan 11 ай бұрын

Except their reputation

@shorewall 11 ай бұрын

@@IT_Farhan The only reason to withdraw is to prepare for a war, so reputation is not as important then.

@johanmetreus1268 11 ай бұрын

Depend on what treaty is withdrawn from. As example, any nation that begins to use chemical weapons on a massive scale will face some serious backlash.

@mirsh2541 11 ай бұрын

Let us gather again for our favourite weekly powerpoint presentation.

@pougetguillaume4632 11 ай бұрын

god rested on the seventh day to watch his weekly power presentation

@justderp5713 11 ай бұрын

Wish we could see the Tornado MW-1 munitions dispenser. Germany decomissioned the last ones in 2003 :(

@zedeyejoe 11 ай бұрын

Yes I remember those. Thanks for the memory.

@ivancho5854 11 ай бұрын

I would really like to hear more about what each Eastern European country is doing. Thanks. 👍 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧

@lexie6238 11 ай бұрын

"neither Korea has signed the CCM, but they likely take turns forging each other's signatures" he can't not put in banger lines

@napalm2134 11 ай бұрын

Holy shit Perun thank you so much for another great vid to end my week, (or start my week). Looking forward to more great vids all the time. ❤❤❤❤❤

@filipantoncik2604 11 ай бұрын

The comments already stating issues with cluster munition or talking about the quality of Perun's video 7 minutes after release crack me up. We haven't even gotten to caveats yet

@Shenaldrac 11 ай бұрын

You don't understand. Cluster munitions are a divisive topic, so people _need_ to get in their 2 cents without care of what Perun actually has to say about them. It's not about the video, it's about the topic. Which is dumb and sucky but that's how folks are.

@Cinn357 11 ай бұрын

Perun, you got us a new video for my wife's birthday? You're the greatest

@wolfhunter98 11 ай бұрын

7:19 As a former Artillery man, yes that's about right. Have a expression for lack of better wording called "steel on steel", where a shell hits a tank or other armored vehicle directly. One of the more sought after reports about what your rounds did. So yeah I'd say we'd be very happy to see a line of tanks moving nice and slow.

@donnydonadio1185 11 ай бұрын

Fresh off his Forgotten Weapons cameo.

@brambora9395 11 ай бұрын

I love the SK “emotinal support” munitions. Actually had me Chucke

@Cyberc50x 11 ай бұрын

"Emotional support ammunition" pfff. So accurate it hurts.

@latetotheparty8702 11 ай бұрын

Thank you for publishing the audio for your videos!!! Your material is so dense I need to hear it several times and at slow speed to process your data and analysis I found your audio on pocket casts but not on iTunes Thank you for sharing your knowledge and for the work and time you invest in your content Exceptional and generous

@positroll7870 11 ай бұрын

The convention forbidding cluster munitions is, in its core, an attempt to apply the principle of proportionality (only use military force in ways that does not disproportionally impact the civilian population) by generalization. The problem with that is that in this specific case, the limited use of CM by Ukr actually does protect Ukrainian civilians from the Russian genocidal attack. So the quasi religious fervor with which some anti CM activists persue their ideological stance is rather misplaced.

@attilamarics3374 11 ай бұрын

How is this a genocide?

@alexboccaccio5431 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374sir have you seen Mariupol?

@FiikusMaximus 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374look up Srebrenica as a historical analogy. Genocide is defined as an effort to destroy an ethnic (or religious or other) group in whole or *in part*. What's going on and what has been going on in Russian occupied territories satisfies this condition in my opinion (and in the opinions of many others). There's a high standard of proof needed to officially, legally recognise something as genocide, which requires usually years of gathering of evidence and interrogation. However what we've seen from Bucha alone bears very unnerving marks of genocide or at the very least crimes against humanity, which is a step on the way towards genocide.

@marktrotter8971 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374 Putin has been indicted for genocide in relation to his statements and approval of actions relating to kidnap and re-education of Ukrainian children. The proven actions on the ground of systematic torture, rape and murder of civilians by Russian forces - are war crimes - but there remains work to be done to formally demonstrate that these are - in fact - genocide - deliberate actions intended to destroy Ukrainian ethnic identity in areas occupied by Russia

@maitele 11 ай бұрын

@@attilamarics3374 Really now? Then what the fuck were they doing in Kyiv's area in the first place? What's the point of sending all your best guys on a beeline to the capital, with the stated goal of decapitating the government, if your goal wasn't to... yknow, decapitate the government, and thus take The Whole Thing? Do you think they'd have just annexed Kyiv and stopped? That doesn't make any sense even from a Russian perspective. They don't "want to take just some of Ukraine" - that's what they are *settling for* if it comes down to it, because they know there's no fucking way they can actually take the entire thing. Meanwhile, in the parts they do have, they blow up theaters full of children, hospitals, schools, they fire on civilian cars with APCs and machine guns for no reason at all, they shoot the civilians and leave bodies hunched over their bicycles, and they *openly admit to forcibly deporting children to Russia to recieve "reeducation"*. You have to be fucking blind to not see what's happening. Or worse, *intentionally ignorant.*

@jeffreysams3348 11 ай бұрын

Thank you Perun your analysis is always top notch

@jamesmadison4834 11 ай бұрын

This channel is the best source I've found on information about the Ukrainian war from a strategic perspective. It's almost as if Perun is some kind of advanced AI that scans the entire internet for all available data on the was and compiles it into an easy to understand and informative short presentation.

@Bjornification 11 ай бұрын

Crystal clear as usual! Thanks!

@mikeynth7919 11 ай бұрын

The spike in Russian artillery losses could be caused by Russian artillery lingering in a spot longer than they should in order to blunt Ukrainian infantry advances, thus drawing counter-battery fire.

@socomply5963 11 ай бұрын

On top of the Ukranians placing a higher focus on destroying them to soften the damage on the attack troops

@michaelrowave 11 ай бұрын

I think it is promising that the strategic focus is on the backbone of the RF dedensive posture before any attempt at a deep penetration into occupied areas. In this regard Ukraine has the time to preserve its manpower for a final, conclusive offensive which will defeat and destroy RF lines and send any lucky survivors running home to the the truth about this "SMO". Popov's message was quite direct about the state of affairs on the front and it feels like the proverbial "second line of defense" may not be as formidable as suspected now the the command chain is fracturing within the RF.

@TheMrPeteChannel 11 ай бұрын

This is 1 of the Reason the Orcs are getting dinosaur age T-54 & 55 tanks out of storage. They were 1 of the last batches of tanks used for indirect fire. That is they can be used as beyond visual artillery.

@herptek 11 ай бұрын

@@dhurjatinarayangiri6995The Russian anti-fascist soyboys are not going to denazify anything now that the evil capitalists don't open another front against Ukraine like they did against Germany.

@tuehojbjerg969 11 ай бұрын

@@dhurjatinarayangiri6995 so how have they lost when they not even put the new brigades into action 60000 soldiers are waiting for a opening, and russia is the one losing and withdrawing