COVID LOCK-DOWNS... Do they Work?

  Рет қаралды 6,826

Mike Bell

Mike Bell

3 жыл бұрын

Covid-19 Lock-downs have impacted most of the globe. How effective were they?
Advancing the daily mortality curve by 18 days the fatal infection curve can be reconstructed and this is illustrated in the video. This can be compared against the reduced human movement by Google Mobility Reports to understand how lock-down effected virus transmission. Flattening the curve illustrated for Sweden compared against Nordic neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland.
Charts charts included for: UK, USA, California, Spain, Malaysia, Peru, Italy, Brazil, New York, Guayas Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, Sweden, Russia, Mongolia, Turkey, India, South Africa, New Zealand, South Korea Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos,
Americas: Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Chile
Europe: France, Germany, Poland, Greece, Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia.
Middle East: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE
Africa: Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana, Kenya
Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
USA peaks: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Michigan, Pennsylvania
USA Easter Spikes: Mississippi, South Carolina, Arkansas, Alabama
Data valid to 20 June.
Data sources:
Google Mobility Reports www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
European Centre for Disease Prevention www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publica...
New York Times US dataset data.humdata.org/dataset/nyt-...
Voice: Matthew Bell
Music by Borrtex.
Sequence, Floating, Collective decision, Gratitude, Plants, love generosity, Walking.
Useful resources:
The Financial Times excess deaths feature www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-4...
Worldometer for Corona-virus stats www.worldometers.info/coronav...
Cape Town loch-down footage:
Luke Bell
Image credits:
Pisa commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi... Guyaquil commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...
Las Penas Guayaquil commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...

Пікірлер: 63
@ignaciojavierkairuzeguia599
@ignaciojavierkairuzeguia599 3 жыл бұрын
Argentinian here. Going to almost 7 months of lockdown. Numbers still increasing. 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏼👏🏼. Destroyed economy. More than half of the population is struggling to reach end of the month
@ectomorph_7
@ectomorph_7 10 ай бұрын
Susan Diane Wojcicki will NOT like this video 😂
@jasonjames4667
@jasonjames4667 3 жыл бұрын
Who would have thought regional cultural attitudes would become such an important catalyst in a global pandemic. Great video Mike, hope to see more from you.
@charliewhiskey8440
@charliewhiskey8440 3 жыл бұрын
So true. For those who've had a front row seat during SARS they'd have been frightened enough to take COVID seriously rather than coming out to protest. Take my local Chinese community here in Melbourne for example many were masked on their own accord back in Jan/Feb, when COVID was barely on the country's radar. Even as late as May if I remember correctly the government here was still advising AGAINST the use of mask. The use of masks here is now compulsory.
@kentlofgren
@kentlofgren 3 жыл бұрын
A firm yet engaging voice-over narrative style + acoustic room treatment = professional audio! Extremely well made. Keep them coming!
@arc1516
@arc1516 3 жыл бұрын
here Uruguay, and we got 8000 active cases with 3.5 mill people.
@gilliansweatman6944
@gilliansweatman6944 3 жыл бұрын
Well done good visuals
@mattbellza
@mattbellza 3 жыл бұрын
Awesome work really enjoyed! ☺️
@lumpymcgrew
@lumpymcgrew 3 жыл бұрын
I would be interested in seeing the testing rate of each country. Strange how countries immediately bordering China have such low infection and death rates. I understand they may not have such a high population transference rate as to the West but still seems stange.
@AndyJayLark
@AndyJayLark 3 жыл бұрын
Since here in Latvia the population is already extremely low it’s common for us to know one another. So by now most are aware of the scam and try to get out of the way of the people hunters. Behind closed doors even the police chiefs have admitted it is all a charade and done only for harassment and control. Any questions?
@JohnSmith-ng2ek
@JohnSmith-ng2ek 3 жыл бұрын
How did you not get demontized by KZfaq for this
@kamleshpatel9009
@kamleshpatel9009 3 жыл бұрын
Great video
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks 😊
@LukeMaximoBell1
@LukeMaximoBell1 3 жыл бұрын
Great Video!!
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@aaa7189
@aaa7189 3 жыл бұрын
The sky is falling
@liamsurridge
@liamsurridge 3 жыл бұрын
Great video Mike!
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks Liam 😁
@m.aleissa1618
@m.aleissa1618 3 жыл бұрын
Great video 👍
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you Legend 😁
@TheMrMikeo
@TheMrMikeo 3 жыл бұрын
Interesting video, such a shame about Peru. I was blown away by the impressive effort of Vietnam.
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Yup the countries with little money showing up the countries who roll in the money 😂 the great leveller
@sobi20
@sobi20 3 жыл бұрын
@@Mike-Bell I think it's similar here in Slovakia, one of the poorer countries of EU. I think there was an understandable worry behind strict and early measures that this virus could overwhelm health systems of poorer countries easily. At that time, we witnessed Italy's struggle and almost everyone was disciplined and followed the new rules.
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
@@sobi20 Its striking where the prevalent national culture is selfish/ everyone for themselves that covid has been punisihing. No matter if the country is rich or poor. Cultures who put value in the collective common good have typically done well or excellenty with covid. Slovakia is certainly a success story.
@Carneades2012
@Carneades2012 3 жыл бұрын
Vietnam's success is impressive, but it may not be useful as a model for other countries. Long exposure to similar coronaviruses over the millennia may have given Southeast Asian people some resistance to SARS-COV-2: see www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/07/22/the-hunt-for-the-origins-of-sars-cov-2-will-look-beyond-china
@andrewm7371
@andrewm7371 3 жыл бұрын
Is it possible the infection rate has to do with diet? As is the case with different results across all these different cultures?
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Certainly where country diet has a higher incidence of diabetes Covid has been particularly punishing.
@ll1881ll
@ll1881ll Жыл бұрын
Yes absolutely. See all co morbidity from metabolic disorders. And not only diabetes, low electron transfer from Polyunsaturated oils that are toxic and found in all processed food
@nadogrl
@nadogrl Ай бұрын
The more unhealthy the diet, the weaker the immune system.
@patriciarautenbach3838
@patriciarautenbach3838 3 жыл бұрын
Very good 👏
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks 😊
@johnny5red42
@johnny5red42 10 ай бұрын
My question is would the same number of have died anyway? With or without lockdowns. Did lockdown only drop the infection rate?
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 10 ай бұрын
The medical profession was saying just slow down the spread so the hospitals could cope. They knew that the same would die anyways as you say. They knew how this works but the politicians thought they knew better and went overboard.
@darkoz1692
@darkoz1692 3 жыл бұрын
Unfortunately the solution is far worse than the problem.
@PantyDropper1
@PantyDropper1 3 жыл бұрын
12000 people is devastating tradigty . Uncontrollable wild spread. 12000 for a entire country of millions is less then one percent. Yes those are human lives and tragedy . But this video and the whole crisis has been blown out of perporson . It is a crisis. Much like everything else we have face. Not outbreak. But pandemic or epidemic. It is not world wide and contractions are not fatal. Maybe percentage of mortality but not if you get corona ? Your dead. What we are bleaived .
@rlguerrero2263
@rlguerrero2263 3 жыл бұрын
You just cannot treat Brazil in the same way as Iceland or Denmark. There are 27 States with huge variations in all aspects. Any simplified analysis will be utterly unreliable at least.
@ricardojoaowestphalfilho4709
@ricardojoaowestphalfilho4709 3 жыл бұрын
You are just comparing curves and lockdown. Factors like herd immunity, susceptible population, etc should be considered. You claim that those that took lockdown measures earlier should be judged favorably in the future. But South Korea didn’t make lockdown and had less cases! And Peru made a long lockdown anda had lots of cases! How do you explain that?
@tdmmcl1532
@tdmmcl1532 3 жыл бұрын
that is a legitimate question, one the OP either did not consider, or refused to consider. But there is a bit more to it. in short, this may be related to prior exposure. At least in many of the countries we can make that case. Bear with me. SARS-Cov-1 (2003) virus and SARS-Cov-2 (2019) have about 90% similarity on genomic structure, and almost 98 % similarity in the S1, S2, And N spike protein. For immunity to occur, durable immunity, it is the human immune response to the spike protein..not the payload. This is key. continuing. in the south east asian countries, SARS (2003) were heavily impacted. There was not vaccine. It was a novel virus. Many died, but alos many did not. This is correlated to a short incubation and most studies tend to indicate that while the mortality rate was high (30% of those infected), the transmissibility rate was low (comparitively speaking). If one assumes that these countries had prior exposure and some good durable level of herd immunity was inferred from it, this would explain the lack of severe cases, hospitilizations, and deaths. I want to put a placemarker note here: in 2003-2005 there was not reliable PCR field testing tool ..nor was there a reliable antibody (serology) test available. The technology was there, but not with the specificity and sensitivity. By the time those tools were available, guess what they discovered by doing some surveillance? Yup, you guessed right...they were finding that SARS (2003) was still circulating, and serology was positive for good immunity levels. Thus they were finding nearly everywhere that herd immunity was established AND STILL INTACT. And it makes sense to form that hypothesis based on that later surveillance: no one was dying from a virus that had previously claims 30% of those infected! Now, fast forward...SARS (2019)...similar genomic sequence compared to SARS (2003)...and what tests were brought to bear when it exploded in the scene out of china? the PCR test slightly re-tooled from the former SARS (2003) "recipe"....But what actually happened? Lots of false positives.....TURNS OUT, the tests were still sensitive to SARS (2003), 17 years later...but this time not just a smaller surveillance from asia, but nearly everywhere in the world! Only difference? there is slightly different SARS (2019) that has different factors...longer incubation, lower mortality. and the error checking mechanism is not as consistent...so you end up with a long durable virus, that can infect AND spread like crazy before it people get ill and detect it, and the lower mortality rate kind of drives the thinking that this is less dangerous and thus policies are slack...at first these things are true. the takeaway here is clear: those regions that were hit hard by SARS (2003), had established herd immunity. Thus when a later class of corona virus that is almost identical in genomic sequence, but with some different factors, those regions and people's are already immunized in the most important structure of the virus..the spike protein! (98 % plus similarity)....And that helps to explain the very low rate in asia...even without lockdowns. No one with a serious scientific background refutes that prior exposure to SARS (2003) is the most likely reason for such low numbers! the good news is that we have a good example to estimate our future trajectory for this current SARS (2019) virus...there will be natural immunity established. Even with the long incubation period, and 32,000 mutations (known), and 15 month in worldwide circulation, the low mortality rate, we can expect herd immunity without the need or pressure from a vaccine . Most people do not realize this, but if you really dig into the data....worldwide, and not just the US. something very profound happened. toward the end of Dec 2020 until present, new cases, hospitilizations, severity, and deaths are way way way down. about 70 percent! This is the classic pattern you expect from natural herd immunity. no vaccine can be attributed to this..the trend dropped well before any significant level of vacinnation every happened. the human body wins again just as it did in SARS (2003) ! God Bless
@ll1881ll
@ll1881ll Жыл бұрын
Spot on
@ricardojoaowestphalfilho4709
@ricardojoaowestphalfilho4709 3 жыл бұрын
After all, total number of deaths should not be used for comparisons. Its obvious that bigger populations will have more cases - and more deaths. The number used for this comparison is deaths per million. This is also basic Epidemiology. Comparing total numbers is just a “score of death”.
@ricardojoaowestphalfilho4709
@ricardojoaowestphalfilho4709 3 жыл бұрын
These are not logarithmic curves. The use of exponential curves does not reflect the real trend of increase or decrease in the number of cases. This is basic Epidemiology.
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
95% of KZfaq viewers aren't interested in too much detail and most find the logarithmic scale confusing because they are used to seeing the linear curves. The audience is not epidemiologists. And if I made the video longer with finer detail many also don't click the video because its too long. I tailor my videos to the typical audience. In answer to your points made.. Most important is to see when the uptrend reverses and linear shows this the same as logarithmic The graphs do have a per capita scale on the the right hand side. This shows daily fatal infections per mill, which is the same as deaths per million. When many were already dying there is a reduced susceptible population significantly slowing the outbreak as is the case in Brazil now. But in the video I make the point the most important thing is to have a unified government response, a nation culture of caring about the common good and not the selfish attitude in many of the countries with big death tolls and an effective community health network which contract traces when the outbreak is still small and controllable. Here's a challenge to make your own videos where you can do everything way you see correct.
@ll1881ll
@ll1881ll Жыл бұрын
You aren’t factoring for population density, percentage vs over all numbers , co morbidities , metabolic disorders , and death from poverty caused by economic distress. This piece is about how to lie with graphs
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell Жыл бұрын
The numbers are per capita which is percentage. You don’t like what you see so you pick a fault that is not one.
@ll1881ll
@ll1881ll Жыл бұрын
@@Mike-Bell no where in your data does it show per capita. It states number of deaths. All lockdowns do is delay deaths and cause much more death through economic collapse. And thanks for showing Mongolian data . An extremely low density country that also has traditional food instead of the modern foods that create metabolic disorder.
@Rapptor22
@Rapptor22 3 жыл бұрын
It is a flu. I am speaking from my own personal experience with the virus.
@rlguerrero2263
@rlguerrero2263 3 жыл бұрын
And by the way, what Brazilian president did was nothing but confront the infamous leftists who politicised the pandemic from the first moment, allowing space for common sense and the best practices available, something the communists wanted to avoid at all costs willing to spread chaos to try to regain the power. Even so, no state or city have being denied federal plenty support, whatever the ideology in the local power. Authority abuse have being widespread with police violence, old folks being beated on the streets, unnecessary prohibitions, massive and avoidable unemployment and failing small business, a sharp rise in suicide cases, infamous corruption scandals and even a fake study conducted by leftists doctors designed to kill patients in order to discredit the treatment with hydroxichloroquine. People are disgusted, angry and terrified by local policies and civil unrests are feasible to occur. That's what Mr. Bolsonaro is against of, but so far have being impeded to prevent due to the dubious acts of tyranny from the Brazilian Suprem Court, blatantly unconstitutional and highly ideological.
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
Sadly Brazil and USA have worst Covid performance in the world even when compared with countries with larger populations and complicated politics. The reason why they are the worst performing is both have Presidents who are in denial about the virus and their only strategy is to attack the opposition and science. Funny that both Presidents like hydroxicloriquine. If it is such a great drug why is it not healing people anywhere in the world. I think you need to wake up to the reality that Bolsonaro is a dangerous selfcentred damaging human being.
@rlguerrero2263
@rlguerrero2263 3 жыл бұрын
@@Mike-Bell Listen, I'm here. I passed my entire life under socialists governments for which the word corruption is to small to describe their perversion. When on the history of your country taxpayers' money was robed by bilions? I do mean, for surreal it may seems, billions took away by the biggest corruption scheme on the history of humanity. If not Bolsonaro, that was the choice we had. Are you aware of that? Now, after just 18 months of Bolsonaro's proud and honest government, we have money to somehow deal with this pandemic. Money that otherwise would fade away on the corrupt leftists hands to fund revolutions elsewhere on the world or to help their fellow dictators. No, Mr Bolsonaro IS NOT a denialist. Instead, it's his opinion and mine too that tyrannical abuses are being perpetrated with the pretext of keeping people safe. And he just cannot avoid it because the STF, our Supreme Court, decided it's not his authority. By the way, right now he is infected by COVID 19 and yes, took Hidroxicloroquina. His testimony is of feeling really better right after starting the treatment. And for God's sake, from where you came with this idea he is a self centered person? His personal historic is of abiding every law, rule and hierarchy. He is the first president in our republican history to really respect and enforce the Rule of the Law, something the communists will never do. I hope you improve your information sources so you don't get in such a way far from the facts in your analysis.
@Mike-Bell
@Mike-Bell 3 жыл бұрын
R L Guerrero so Bolsonaro is not corrupt. Of course he is. Open your eyes... he is trying to cover the criminality of his sons. He is an obnoxious person who insult anybody who doesn’t agree with him. Careful he may bring back the military rule. He is famous around the world for insulting the women who he said is too ugly to rape. Come on man. That is a vile human being who has no respect. His Presidency is going to be a massive failure. Its just a matter of time
@GaelPrado
@GaelPrado 3 жыл бұрын
Oh the Idiocracy. Shame on you sir. Blaming others for the stupidity of president Bolsonaro!!! He's guilty for his crimes and he will face justice soon!!
@rlguerrero2263
@rlguerrero2263 3 жыл бұрын
@@Mike-Bell Had you watched that video just seconds before? She was calling him "rapist", just for a political discussion between two congressmen/women You are the vile man here, and I expect nothing but evil from you
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