CYCLE LOWS HAVE ARRIVED

Рет қаралды 10,694

Ай бұрын

Cycle lows finally here?
Powell tie signal broken?
Big players buying Bitcoin
TA & Live Trades
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Пікірлер: 184

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Download the highly requested 'An Introduction to Trading Cycles' PDF here: camel-finance.creator-spring.com/listing/an-introduction-to-trading-cyc?product=1227 Become Camel Crew member here: kzfaq.info/love/r_DLep7UQ0B_IFhvTORu8Ajoin Send me something: Camel PO BOX 429 EX32 2LD Support my work here: www.buymeacoffee.com/camelfinance

@CyclesGUY Ай бұрын

you should charge more for that pdf to be honest Camel

@icecold2169 Ай бұрын

Thanks for this!

@mr.nakamura9088 Ай бұрын

That was completely worth the $11 with that discount code. Nice include with the risk management section at the end of the document; it shows you care about your audience.

@davidhumphrey1558 Ай бұрын

88k bitcoin by June 1st or Bob's your uncle.

@RunivoreTom Ай бұрын

I just watch these videos for the opening scene memes.

@nickstjohn72 Ай бұрын

Let’s seriously GOOOOOOOOO

@CyclesGUY Ай бұрын

The PDF is Fantastic !!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

thank you

@wissiwizard4536 Ай бұрын

Awesome content Camel thank you!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

No worries!

@Doubleones-hz5zd Ай бұрын

I don’t even care about bitcoin lows…. Please god make the alts bottom this week…. Just sold 2 cars to dca this week 😂☠️

@pianosfilipem Ай бұрын

exactly man, my 3x leverages could use some breather room

@quintenvanherwijnen5648 Ай бұрын

Alts have already bottomed

@pianosfilipem Ай бұрын

@@quintenvanherwijnen5648 Yeah man the Stochastic rsi for Others say so

@prasadmankar7650 Ай бұрын

@@quintenvanherwijnen5648exactly if they go more down then they just break all the structure they created since last oct/nov and then have to start a new structure. People should stop expecting alts to create new lows.

@quintenvanherwijnen5648 Ай бұрын

and not just to shout things: Total3 reacted to important fib level, starting a 4th wave up now. Bitcoin dominance also hit a algorithm resistance, so that will probably decline.

@londonspade5896 Ай бұрын

Excellent

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Thank you so much 😀

@ianandrews8773 Ай бұрын

Pump to the upside has not been invalidated but in fact has been confirmed today. 🎉

@rstrunks Ай бұрын

The tie thing is like the "briefcase indicator" with greenie in the 90s.

@bblanco9698 Ай бұрын

Hi Camel, curious about the use of VNQ as a proxy for the housing market since it is made up of REITs holding commercial properties. Residential prices have risen across the US over the past few years as VNQ has taken a bath following rates beginning to rise. Thanks!

@TheMarky26 Ай бұрын

I just watched a video a few days ago basically saying that QE is here already but it's being hidden through changes in the way they calculate the numbers..It had to do with the treasury bonds market..

@charlesp360_4 Ай бұрын

Pure Survival out here..Thanks Camel

@shinertourgamers6200 Ай бұрын

Thanks for the video Camel! Do members get a discount on the PDF? If so, how?

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I put a discount code in the community tab for members The promotion ended on Monday but I will turn the code back on for you - please wait an hour and try again. The code is in the community tab about the 4th post down. Thanks

@stevevandoom Ай бұрын

dips are like a combination of a stimulant and a laxative....oh yeh... coffee. dips and cycle lows are exciting and scary at same time... but in the end it will all work out!!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

lol nice analogy

@bingbong2257 Ай бұрын

I thought it was the opposite? Lower interest rates=more risk tolerance and market growth?

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

in theory yes but the cuts take a while to start acting as simulative. edit - I have a video called 'rate cuts are bearish' from about 1 year ago that covers this in full detail

@S41GON Ай бұрын

The ECB and the rest are iching to cut, they would be livid if the FED raised from here...

@grantpalmer2421 Ай бұрын

Thanks again for all the hard work, I'll look forward to studying the PDF!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Thank you Grant!

@grantpalmer2421 Ай бұрын

@@camelfinance all good found the PDF, thanks Camel

@juanjosecardenasramirez9844 Ай бұрын

Man im so happy i became a member, your content is so awesome. Been watching since 6 months ago!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Thank you!!

@Dan_2727 Ай бұрын

💪🏼🔥💯

@andrewvader9077 Ай бұрын

What Canadian CPI prints it's been showing oil has been deflationary. What's been keeping our CPI numbers High has been housing costs of high interest rates with rental prices have been increasing. So for you to say oil is not going to do so well I believe it when it's already showing the Canadian market

@itsreza Ай бұрын

NO. At least one more month, if not 2. May and June most probably be down or sideways. Eth/Btc broken down and it takes about 2 to 3 months to reverse again if history repeats (which it seems like doing in the big picture)

@DarthPreciousMetals Ай бұрын

Thanks for the PDF, it will be very useful 🤜🤛

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Thanks Darth!

@marcdavidke Ай бұрын

thank you Camel 😁😁🥰

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

You're welcome 😊

@Unscripted82 Ай бұрын

See everyone at 53k

@Prim3Pursuits Ай бұрын

Another great video thanks Camel!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

@douglasclarke4860 Ай бұрын

Jamie Diamond said just the other day that another hike is imminent, he said he sees 8% interest rates this year!

@briggsrl7755 Ай бұрын

kept us waiting... XD

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

sorry bro!

@Northstar2000 Ай бұрын

You chicken licken, scared and putting disclaimers now

@johngammon963 Ай бұрын

At the start, when Camel says "warning" it sounds like he's saying "Oi" 🤣

@KangaroozADA Ай бұрын

Hey Camel so my thoughts on why stocks crash from lower interest rates is prices of products get cheaper & yields get lower so money moves? What I don't understand is why supply capped Crypto's also see this drop? Is it just part of fear from a broken system & they bounce back hard and fast cause everything is cheaper and more money is available to gamble?

@Jakub189 Ай бұрын

Prices of products don't get cheaper in a boom or inflation stage of the market. Deflation decreases prices of services and products. That'll be 3 years from now

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

largely because the big players treat it like a risk asset - we need a much higher market cap and lower vol before it can be treated like the risk off asset it was designed to be

@little-bandit-music Ай бұрын

Hidden tie alpha :D :D

@TruthTealler Ай бұрын

love these videos mate. and the memes in the start allways makes my day.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

thanks!

@albertsmit9741 Ай бұрын

lows are always on thirsdays

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I noticed this because my brother always wants to go fishing on a thursday lol!

@marcomstube Ай бұрын

I was looking forward to this, sadly, since I'm from Brazil, I wasn't able to complete the purchase ... is there any other way ? Since it's a digital download, wouldn't it be able to sell to other countries? Thanks for the infos, as always, amazing TA!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

email me or dm me on twitter bro

@ScotsSilver Ай бұрын

🤞

@instaheat8404 Ай бұрын

Hi thanks for the videos really informative even though a bit over my head as only invested in crypto in January. I’m guessing all your references to trades include Leverage can you do a video on leverage for dummies 😂. As all I have currently done is buy bitcoin in January hope to hold it until near the top and sell but leverage seems a whole new world and whilst there are other videos out there that do explain it I like and can relate to how you explain things. Thanks Camel

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

hi - please see the tutorials playlist - it includes a vid on leverage. you will need to watch the risk management vid first tho.

@duff16oz Ай бұрын

Thanks Camel!

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Thanks Duff!

@nirajodedra1838 Ай бұрын

I was going through some of your older videos, one thing i noticed throughout is the CME interest rate indicator has mostly been inaccurate, you were calling for cuts in 2023 July ( based on that CME indicator), it seems like they won't even cut in july 2024, imo rate cutting was one of the things you have been getting wrong since more than a year, just trying to observe and provide you with constructive criticism, love your channel camel, thanks

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Rate cuts has been the biggest thing I got wrong for sure! I was calling for cuts within the first 2 hikes, I was in the camp of people that thought they could not possibly hike without breaking something - I was half right as the banks broke and needed bail outs and BTFP and so did the UK pension funds which got margin called and needed QE in the middle of a hiking cycle. But yes I was flat wrong about the hikes and I have been for the whole hiking cycle to be honest. Like I said in todays video, if the probability is over 85% then that is usually what we see in the current month. But the rates re-price often and going out even 2 or 3 months into the future even the CME cant help with. Thanks

@kowabonga1263 Ай бұрын

What's a reasonable trailing stop loss in wave 5? Sorry for the easy question 😂

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

up to you - you could use candle bodies from a few days before or something like a parabolic SAR indicator

@Northstar2000 Ай бұрын

Dont ask that he has to give financial advice to answer that question and hes a chicken licken

@alexs1540 Ай бұрын

I had to stop by for the necktie alpha

@Northstar2000 Ай бұрын

You chicken licken

@realjoedee Ай бұрын

The more positivity peons like us have the more likely the market's going to tank hard.

@jtoddburt1 Ай бұрын

Can be as simple as they will hold rates as long as inflation is edging up and as soon as there is a crisis or similar scare or 10% S&P drop, they will then start cutting. In an election year, highly improbable rate increase or no rate cuts before election. Odds of a debt crisis trigger increases everyday rates stay unchanged. They want to lower rates so bad it hurts, but they have to wait for some excuse to do it.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

yes could be!

@beecee7359 Ай бұрын

🧐 is silver getting ready?

@Jakub189 Ай бұрын

Already is

@nozrulislam5521 Ай бұрын

😳

@ferreal8193 Ай бұрын

It's going much lower, the charts show everything!!!!

@mohammedzeshankhan6162 Ай бұрын

Can you tell is more about this concept of stealth QE while we are in a pause, cause it looks counter intuitive. does the Fed want to work on QT or QE. The fed didn't come out and tell us, i am interested how u came to this conclusion.

@crypto_chick_ Ай бұрын

I just watched a mark moss video about that earlier today, his latest video speaks about it.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

they have been telling us they're tightening this whole cycle yet we have had global liq increasing, BTFP, RRP, Operation reverse twist, hiding the bailout on the FDIC balance sheet / FDIC balance sheet expansion just to name a few. if they really were tightening we would not have seen bitcoin gold and stocks all rip to new aths. Nothing they say carries any weight.

@trancosa13 Ай бұрын

so is it that the longer rate cuts are delayed the less likely a left translated cycle happens?

@Jakub189 Ай бұрын

Rate hikes are intended to cool the market off. But we're in deep inflation shit worldwide

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

yes, but not much less likely at this stage. one day at a time - plus something can always break and force the cuts.

@trancosa13 Ай бұрын

@@camelfinance cheers bud, so deeper in then pivot to a longer bull if it comes to that, out of interest, the something that could break to force cuts, is that purely inflation readings declining or other factors like employment?

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

@@trancosa13 I think it will be either bank failures, cyber attack, recession / unemployment

@Emrico35 Ай бұрын

So nothing to worry about bitcoin holders :)) but risk asset owners should be worried. (stocks, memecoins, altcoins etc)

@Jakub189 Ай бұрын

BTC a non risk asset 😅

@Emrico35 Ай бұрын

@@Jakub189 yes. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset only if you don't know about it. Bitcoin is a risk-off asset for those who knows, study and learn about it. Limited supply, most secure network on earth, borderless, decentralized. Tell me how it can be a risk-on asset?

@ThePeterVJones Ай бұрын

Thanks camel👍😁

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

thanks Peter!

@ilovemyprs Ай бұрын

Camel, will you offer some minimal support for people who bought your book, and may have some technical questions? Or is it ok to just randomly drop book related questions on your videos? (for example, on your cycle trading video tutorial) Thank you as always for another great video, highly appreciated ♥

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I created it with the intention of putting everything I know about cycles in one place. If you ever have any questions I am usually pretty easy to get hold of and happy to help. Cheers

@joelbryant5999 Ай бұрын

Can't believe how much alpha can be loaded onto a single camel 🤯

@TGU23 Ай бұрын

Just purchased the PDF it says it will be delivered 1-6 of may?

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I know it says that but it should be emailed to you within an hour

@TGU23 Ай бұрын

@@camelfinance okay my bad. Thanks for quick response 🙌

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

no probs!

@joaocourinha8222 Ай бұрын

Teaser: in this video he eventually draws balls on one of the chart bars. That’s my alpha

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

😂

@scott3744 Ай бұрын

No way, oil is going to $150 a barrel! (sorry, I couldn't help myself 😂)

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

😂

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

never say never! lol

@pumpmoonboy866 Ай бұрын

My guts is telling me that there is no rate cut this year. There will all kind of excuses such as strong employment or inflation. Also fed tend to act very late in reacting just like the rate hike in the last cycle, etc. just gut feeling

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I wont rule that out! anything and everything is on the table! I still tend to believe they will be forced to cut after something breaks. But who knows - I just plan top trade the charts and enjoy the show

@pavelstrelchuk216 Ай бұрын

Not yet, wait another week lol

@fishandgameman Ай бұрын

Yeah that centralization is a problem. The ETF gave them an opportunity to scoop up all that BTC under the auspices of holding the underlying indefinitely, but now they can take short positions in the futures market, sell off a very small percentage on exchange, take huge profits on the shorts, use their existing and new liquidity to scoop up twice as much BTC at 10K-15K. Now owning the majority of BTC. I don’t have a clue if that’s the plan, but that is what I would do. If the spot ETF came before the futures it would be a different story. My limit orders are sub 26K until I see a different trend. ✌️

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I think that is their plan too - just like they did with gold and silver. I do disagree with sub 26k tho, I think we go higher but as always I am open to being proven wrong

@fishandgameman Ай бұрын

@@camelfinance On the monthly Fib extension from the November 2021 swing high to the previous swing low in March of 2020 we have failed to reach the 1 fib level of $80,602. Up until two weeks ago everyone expected that level to be reached before a pullback. If I draw an ascending trend line on a weekly chart around July 2019 through November 2020, continuing through July 2022, September 2023, a weekly crash of 58% brings us back to said trend line at the 0.382 Fib level of $27,616. When I study largest weekly BTC crashes I get a number around 60% or so to price of around $25,500 which happens to coincide very nicely with huge support on May 12, 2022, June 15, 2023, 8-2023 through September 2023. It also fits with the daily non log chart ascending trend-line mentioned earlier serving as support and resistance from June 2018 up to the mid September 2023 breakout to the new ATH pre-having. I know that’s a lot of moving parts, but unless the price gets back to lower levels, all that retail money will remain on the sidelines. The volume profiles speak to this also. When the September break out happened everyone was in disbelief because it wasn’t supported by volume. It still isn’t. The recent run up was in trouble retail selling at half their price becoming exit liquidity for institutions and us retail that exited at the new ATA. BTC spot will always be driven by retail IMO. Oh, and sub-25K may have been a fish story, but not by much. ✌️

@chrisshannon1125 Ай бұрын

Do they possess enough BTC to swing the price so dramatically? If I recall they still own only a small fraction of minted BTCs. I thought the ETFs served a primarily custodial function anyways

@fishandgameman Ай бұрын

@@chrisshannon1125 Remember in the beginning when they were only offering or talking to their high net worth investors? Because they had enough money to get in just a little to move the ETF price around. Then when it dumps, those individuals along with all others on standby come in. I don’t know, but I doubt they take on a client into the ETF and then go to the market to get the underlying asset. They have plenty that was acquired OTC that only a small percentage dump on exchanges would tank the price by 80%. There hasn’t been any volume really since September compared to the previous Bull market breakouts. That’s why no one believed in the beginning the price was going to continue upwards. The smart retail investors are waiting for their original targets of 10-12K. Yes, I think that could happen with all the long positions. I think this is our long awaited capitulation. Don’t take my word, I’m not the best TA guy, and I look at the psychology and the common sense play.

@gtcstorm40 Ай бұрын

Man they swept that 70K high and trapped a lot of bulls, might take time to get them all out. That being said, this might mean no left translated cycle which gives us more upside ?

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

maybe! Too early to tell right now I think

@HYEOL Ай бұрын

My huge transaction will arrive too late. I just know it 💀💀

@RichardJ.Schueler Ай бұрын

long or wrong!

@AfatPanda98 Ай бұрын

Any chance you'd consider recording a video or two (or a mini course) that goes through your PDF? I'd pay for that, easier to watch than read on my own time

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I have a video in the playlist mate - the video covers the basics, that should be enough but the PDF has a lot more details and contains literally everything I know about cycles

@mediaconsument Ай бұрын

I ordered the pdf, but it says the ebook will be delivered in 2 weeks? Something wrong here. I'm from europe btw.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I know it says that but you should receive an email within the hour

@mediaconsument Ай бұрын

@@camelfinance Thanks for the heads up! I'm looking forward to reading it. You know your stuff. :)

@zetka102 Ай бұрын

Many Thanks - 'An Introduction to Trading Cycles' PDF nice compact, easy to understand guide, - will save you hours and 200 odd videos search to compile basic understanding - highly recommended if you new to cycles.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Thank you brotha!

@xcosmiccrunchx Ай бұрын

I think Powell follows you. Lol

@CryptoChangingTheWorld Ай бұрын

Alts looked goosed this bull run.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

never saw that coming... lol

@spd57 Ай бұрын

I don't think you repeat yourself really, it's just the nature of the beast...other youtubers beat a dead horse and on top of that they lie, I have more faith in you but of course I'm always accountable for my own actions.

@damiene5360 Ай бұрын

Personally I'd prefer a scare prank or some dumb fail video over these unrelated text bubble memes. I like your videos alot though

@Northstar2000 Ай бұрын

He won't do it, he is a chicken licken 🐔

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I'll see what I can do...

@pianosfilipem Ай бұрын

when will bitcoin do bitcoin things? :/

@pianosfilipem Ай бұрын

I don't like your Oil trendline. I connected all three tops and it clearly broke out on daily

@NabilBreda 21 күн бұрын

Call me stupid but to mee it seems gold would like to test the second angle again

@camelfinance 21 күн бұрын

possible for sure - until we breakout on a daily closing basis then expectation is lower although cycles should be bottoming

@brandoncook6383 Ай бұрын

Not for Bitcoin.

@TruthTealler Ай бұрын

Anyone got some good book recommendations? im still a newbie in this game.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

try the playlist on my channel

@Yourmomz143 Ай бұрын

Imo... Fcuk it! Keep HoDLin😅

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

Always!

@raymondmurphy1094 Ай бұрын

First

@Emrico35 Ай бұрын

Camel, do you think it's possible fed doesn't cut rates but runs a stealth QE and injects liquidity in system secretly and we face high inflation in 2025-2026? then long winter for 2-3 years?

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

yes

@Jakub189 Ай бұрын

Expect a 4+ year bear market

@Emrico35 Ай бұрын

@@Jakub189 with etfs approved? C'moooon mannnn

@crypto_chick_ Ай бұрын

Yep I think so, mark moss was talking about this today..

@Northstar2000 Ай бұрын

Fed is gay

@user-vn1cs3cz2d Ай бұрын

Btc to $52k altcoins have another 70% to fall

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

disagree but open to being proven wrong as always

@oscar437 Ай бұрын

Gotta keep an eye on Credit Default Rate, things are getting nasty.

@xenoslsj1997 Ай бұрын

Bought the PDF too. Been really into cycles after going back in time and mapping out the 60 day BTC cycles. Hope you will speak about the mid cycle low that we are getting on BTC atm and whether the current daily cycle has failed.

@camelfinance Ай бұрын

I will do brother! Glad you like it!