Cycles TV: Phillip Anderson on the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle

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Cycles TV: Phillip Anderson on the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle

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Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC)

Жыл бұрын

Cycles TV: Phillip Anderson on the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle
🌎 Sign up for the FREE FSC Community Newsletter: cycles.org/fre...
Western economies exhibit an 18.6-year real estate cycle. Where are we in that cycle? How does it affect the markets? How can it transform your investing strategies?
Phillip Anderson on the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle
This special episode of Cycles TV kicks off the FSC's Market Forecast 2023, a three-day event from January 10-12 at 4 PM EST. Register here: cycles.org/mf23/
FSC Board Member Andrew Pancholi interviews Phillip Anderson, director of Property Share Market Economics and author of The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking. For over 25 years he has studied economics and markets and can say categorically that Western economies exhibit an 18.6-year real estate cycle.
Where are we in that cycle? How does it affect the markets? How can it transform your investing strategies? Tune in to find out.
This special Cycles TV episode kicks off the FSC's third annual Market Forecast, a three-day event from January 10-12 at 4 PM EST, showcasing leading experts and trading professionals who have become legends in their field.
Learn more about Anderson's Property Share Market Economics: bit.ly/PCI-FSC...
Questions or comments? Leave a message in the comment section below.
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Пікірлер: 36

@FSCtv 10 ай бұрын

🌎 Become a Cycles Insider. Sign up for the FREE FSC Community Newsletter: cycles.org/youtube-signup/

@koesje1958 Жыл бұрын

The 18.6 Year Cycle was the basis of Gann's Financial Time Table, which is ruled by the Moon's North Node, aka RAHU in Vedic astrology, it is also divided in 12 parts as Rahu moves through the 12 signs and 12 houses

@markopopovic1004 Жыл бұрын

Thanks Raja, I know Gann’s table but didn’t know about the other specifics. You’ve given me something to research! 👍🏼

@Robin-Smith 8 ай бұрын

Are you referring to the Saros cycle?

@arronrooks6595 Жыл бұрын

Thx. For having Mr Anderson on your channel. I'm a big fan of his work!

@4thindustrial985 Жыл бұрын

The whole video is a golden nugget

@Marthastewart209. Жыл бұрын

Thank you for putting subtitles

@blythemajors9193 Жыл бұрын

I can listen to Phil all day. The man just knows his stuff.

@nikhil9100 Жыл бұрын

THIS VIDEO HAS LOT TO LEARN , A LOT . THANKS ANDY AND PHIL .

@nthperson Жыл бұрын

As Phil continues to comment on what happens when the central bank increases interest rates, it occurs to me to share this insight: where real estate markets are concerned, it important to remember that most properties that are offered for sale are not new construction. Thus, they are not inventory in the same way that all other goods are inventory to the seller. Unless a potential seller of an existing property must sell because of some personal reason, they can pull their property off of the market until a sellers' market returns. This reduces the number of properties offered for sale, actually proping up property prices so long as demand remains strong; that is, so long as there is no significant increase in unemployment.

@detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

But when the Fed is raising rates in an explicit effort to generate unemployment…

@nthperson Жыл бұрын

@@detrockcity3 That is not the Fed's desired intent, of course. The objective is to reduce the demand for credit in order to slow increases in prices of goods and services. What seems to be missed is the fact that increases in interest rates adds to the income of savers, who now have much more disposable income to spend, invest or leave in a bank account to earn even more interest.

@ShaneChiswick Жыл бұрын

Brilliant!

@billarndt6574 Жыл бұрын

Really worth while

@TheWing7189 Жыл бұрын

None of these books are on audible. 😞

@JohnDavidRicker Жыл бұрын

Let’s go🎉

@bssb936 Жыл бұрын

Excellent thanks. Which is Philips book. The one in 2008?

@chrissanft4676 Жыл бұрын

Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking: How It Moves and Why

@alistairburch Жыл бұрын

Yes, he is busy writing an update but not published yet.

@bssb936 Жыл бұрын

@@alistairburch thank you. I look forward to buying

@Adam-tu3iv Жыл бұрын

Well to be fair - house prices did drop sharply in 2022 (so "every other economist" was right in that respect!)- biggest yearly fall on record - interest rates rising off the back of record lows and high debt, has had an affect - see what happens this year..

@nthperson Жыл бұрын

Yes, but... As potential selling prices of residential properties stopped increasing and began to fall, many potential sellers decided (as generally occurs) to pull their property off the market waiting for a sellers' market to return. Thus, the inventory of properties for sale declined, with the effect of proping up prices. People seeking to purchase a property were as much concerned about locking in a mortgage interest rate as in finding a property within a certain price range.

@thefinancealliance2562 Жыл бұрын

To Australian standards perhaps but an 8% drop after a rise of over 100% in the 10 year preceding is peanuts of course. What we see in the media currently is 'every other economist' falling over each other to yell how bad things are and that property prices could come down 20-30%. It reminds me of a financial planner I once worked with. Being a big fan of shares, he disliked property as investment vehicle and he was convinced we were having a property bubble, prices were going to crash down and was vocal about it to all his clients and anyone caring to listen. This was in 2012. I've got a few friends that have been saying the same since a few years. My conclusion for them is, one day they will be right, if they wait long enough and continue saying it, they will be right one day. When that day comes, and they are right finally, they would have missed out on 100+% profit. If they would have geared their dollar, a multitude of that.

@Adam-tu3iv Жыл бұрын

@@nthperson Yes - this happened outside the US also. Still - many were too quick to say that rising rates would not affect prices. Yet the main stream economists that stressed that they would - were accurate in their stance. Should always be humble enough to expect the unexpected when it comes to analysing cycles.

@Adam-tu3iv Жыл бұрын

@@thefinancealliance2562 I don't disagree with your comments in general - and I doubt we'll see a 20/30% drop from peak to trough - all I am saying is that the fall this year in Aust has been the fastest annual median fall on record. Prices typically rise along side rates - so those that know that, didn't expect such a sharp downturn. Still - it doesn't hurt to admit when you misfire on that and the unexpected occurs.

@ShaneChiswick Жыл бұрын

@@Adam-tu3iv So Aus property is going to also go up in this second half of the cycle?

@tedandlindaheath3728 Жыл бұрын

I must have missed it too.

@comfibold Жыл бұрын

Book is called "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking."

@AnnBennettDenver Жыл бұрын

I missed the opening what was the name of the book? Thanks

@bobbyburns3714 Жыл бұрын

The book is "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking."

@alistairburch Жыл бұрын

Secret Life or Real Estate and Banking

@Unbedingt0815 11 ай бұрын

Ask him about the Dollar milkshake theory! I have the suspicion it is Brent Johnson hiding under a wig.

@FUNNY_MONEY__ Жыл бұрын

You promised a discussion including cryptos. Not real estate.

@RDHZRD Жыл бұрын

A large group of us are all secretly selling up 100% in the next BTC bullmarket to rotate into property in 2026-27. This realestate cycle is extremely important for Crypto.