Sunspots and Flare Activity: Region 3697 (returned former Region 3664) down in the far southeast of the solar disk, produced an X1.4 flare with an estimated peak at 29/10:40 EDT (14:40 UTC).
Flare Forecast:
M-class flare activity is likely to continue 30-31 May, with a chance for X-class activity due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3697 and 3691.
Active Regions 3691 and 3697 Continue to Keep Flare Probabilities Higher than Normal: These two sunspot clusters are returning regions from early May (former Regions 3663 and 3664), (respectfully). Together, they were the source of frequent M-class flares, while old Region 3664 was the source of the stronger activity - to include 13 events of R3 levels or higher from 8-15 May. This included an X8.7 (R3) event on 14 May; the largest of Solar Cycle 25 thus far. They survived solar rotation and are still active.
Geomagnetic Storm Watch:
A CME associated with the X1.4 flare, produced by Region 3697 earlier in the period, is likely to enhance the Earth's magnetic field late on 31 May into early on 01 Jun (UTC).
Event:
A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an eruption of solar material. When they arrive at Earth, a geomagnetic storm can result. Watches of this level are not uncommon.
TIMING:
CME influence is anticipated late on 31 May to early 01 June (UTC day).
EFFECTS:
The aurora may become visible Northern Europe and over some northern and upper Midwest states from New York to Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).
#solarstorm #CME #xflare
Images credit: NOAA/SWPC, SOHO/LASCO, AIA/SDO, nemesis maturity channel, helioviewer.org
Music credit: KZfaq Audio Library