DISTRESS DOOM: 7 Crazy Predictions for Toronto Real Estate in 2024

Рет қаралды 11,620

6 ай бұрын

DISTRESS DOOM: 7 Crazy Predictions for Toronto Real Estate in 2024
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►► My annual Toronto Real Estate prediction video is here! It's once again that time of the year. As we bid farewell to 2023, there's a lot of anxiety and intrigue in the market for what's to come in 2024 for the Toronto Real Estate Market. With the financial situation in economies continuing to be highly volatile, will there be distress doom in 2024 when it comes to real estate?
In this year-end special episode of Prime Properties TV, I go over topics in the Toronto Real Estate Market such as prices, sales, biggest busts, biggest opportunities, pre-construction housing and the Toronto rental market. I reveal my TOP 7 crazy predictions that I'm anticipating will happen in 2024. I've changed up the style of this video a little bit to show you the real estate data that I'm looking at so you can understand why I'm making these specific predictions so make sure you tune in to hear about what to expect in 2024!
01:38 - 1) Distress Doom for Pre-construction
04:27 - 2) Toronto Housing Prices
07:14 - 3) Canada Interest Rates
14:06 - 4) Toronto Housing Sales
16:02 - 5) Toronto Freehold Homes VS Toronto Condo Units
21:53 - 6) Rental Market
27:13 - 7) Open Bidding
#TorontoRealEstate #TorontoCondoMarket #TorontoRealEstateMarket
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Пікірлер: 90

@Adam-ek6cz 6 ай бұрын

People ... NEVER, EVER, take financial advice from 1) A Realtor 2) Someone who builds their projections by looking backwards at data.

@Carolinapetroska 6 ай бұрын

I agree and someone who wrongly estimate the 'population growth' as more and more people are leaving Toronto and Canada in general

@keepitreato 6 ай бұрын

The only prediction that matters. Anyone who purchased preconstruction since 2019 is screwed

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Depends on what they bought, but high probability.

@Lifeisapartydresslikeit 6 ай бұрын

Not true. I purchased in 2021 - 3rd investment property. It’s worth 1.5… coming from 1.7… it’s a unique luxury bungalow… so I’m still up. And I bought it for 1 million

@Lifeisapartydresslikeit 6 ай бұрын

Exactly Zhen- I bought in 2021 and I’m still up $600,000 minimum. I’m very lucky

@tomwiazowski9866 6 ай бұрын

Your only up what someone will pay you for it.

@keepitreato 6 ай бұрын

@@Lifeisapartydresslikeit hahahha sure bud keep dreaming

@reality1984-cf7jw 6 ай бұрын

Sales are going to be down, prices are going to be down, interest rates are going to be down

@actionjackson9290 6 ай бұрын

That's why we need to get rid of Trudeau ASAP...housing completion per person is wacked out

@nickjohnston3882 6 ай бұрын

This year is poised for a shift away from the 2023 pricing surge, fueled by high debt levels, especially within the G7, and global economic uncertainties. The rise in layoffs, a lagging employment indicator, further adds to the complex economic landscape. Informed buyers, having witnessed significant market adjustments (approaching 30% in certain regions), are now less influenced by fear of missing out, displaying a greater readiness to walk away. Additionally, changing sentiments around immigration and investment, such as with Airbnb, contribute to the evolving economic landscape. I've cautioned potential investors about the impending swing, particularly as those without homes face an uncertain future. The current trajectory, heavily reliant on the real estate market, appears unsustainable for Canada.

@kevinbarr9933 6 ай бұрын

"Distress Doom" you are the Nostradamus of Toronto Real Estate!

@jay1645 6 ай бұрын

Wonder if there will be a major credit event wiping out everything since the last crazy top when I sold to get back in the game ? 🤔

@greenappo 6 ай бұрын

was in Sydney recently and they have auctions for house sales and let's just say their house prices aren't exactly affordable either lol

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Nope, Australia is just as bad as us

@AnitaSridhar 6 ай бұрын

Yes people talk like it’s just Toronto that’s like that rates were low everywhere and real estate went nuts

@Mehmed317 6 ай бұрын

Not sure why most people think Toronto should be affordable for everyone.

@grossearwax3777 6 ай бұрын

ok here is a question. That house with the buyer that is giving up their 400k deposit... is that house a good deal? Has the prices dropped in Markham that much... if i was to buy the same house would it cost more from the developer vs this distressed seller?

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

You could get a similar house for less than that price in that area, but it woulnd't be new.

@keepitreato 6 ай бұрын

No it is not a deal it was way over priced when it was purchased which is why it has had a double whammy. They over paid for it plus it deprecated at the going rate of resale units. In other words it was 20% higher than resale cost plus had the same depreciation as resales. (Tak on another 10% ) and you are down 30% from your purchase price. 400k off is still over priced which is why buyers of pre con are so screwed

@TLCT91 6 ай бұрын

It really bothers me that this is from an investors point of view. There needs to be regulation on homes being investments. Its one thing to invest in commercial but these landlords are literally scraping up inventory from future generations who will be eventually taking care of this world

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Who do the people rent from then?

@TLCT91 6 ай бұрын

@@PrimePropertiesTO I guarantee if you take away “real estate investors” you will see alot more renters become home owners. They buy up everything and out bid renters with ease

@logandowney7635 6 ай бұрын

We’ll communistic ideas have flaws. Who gets to live at young and Dundas? And who gets to live at Jane and finch? Will you decide?

@TLCT91 6 ай бұрын

@@logandowney7635 yonge and dundas would most likely be white collar jobs or building maintenance staff and jane/finch would be tradesmen or hospital staff. Id say ppl would live close to where they work and ppl that commute to work would less likely live downtown

@logandowney7635 6 ай бұрын

That’s not for anyone to decide. Especially the government. What if I wanted a lawn and a backyard and I was happy taking the go train downtown? Would you protest.

@GreenBeanGreenBean 6 ай бұрын

Last time last year when the BoC 5 year bond rate was 3.25%, mortgage rates were 4.5%........ there is a very good chance that mortgage rates will have a 3 in front of it by end of next year. Yes the first 6 months will be a nothingburger as it will take a while for the banks to start competing on rates again. What most bears don't compute is that the incomes for the top 25% (the actual real estate buyers) is rising 12%/yr.....making real estate cheaper every year.

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Bingo! Unforunately, real estate ownership isn't for all with the economic system we have.

@Jo-mf2vu 6 ай бұрын

Where did you get the stat that 12% income up for top 25%? Source?

@GreenBeanGreenBean 6 ай бұрын

@@Jo-mf2vu from the latest statscan data on incomes, top 1% earners went up 17% incomes last year (pretty sure these are 2022 numbers because 2023 ain't even finished yet and statscan takes a while to compile), top 25% went up 11.7%, top 50% was 5%, bottom 50% was flat (no income increases)....which is literally how you usually get an average of 4-5% income gain that is reported..... that's just math. but the top dogs (the actual buyers of real estate) their incomes are up twice the national average +.......which is why real estate ain't gettin any cheaper especially cuz they ain't making more of it until prices go up even more lol...costs keep goin on up.

@Jo-mf2vu 6 ай бұрын

@@GreenBeanGreenBeanInteresting. Is that gross income or net? I think last data set from stats can released last month was for 2021.

@GreenBeanGreenBean 6 ай бұрын

@@Jo-mf2vu gross income ya...and yea it could be 2021 (statscan takes forever to compile data) but it's the latest data out and it doesn't change that wildly, 4-5% is usually the average income boost which means top dogs are receiving 2-3 times that. Changing jobs from a 60k job to a 75k or 80k is not uncommon, which is 20%+ boost....but if you stayed at your current job yay 3% boost if that!

@Relaxlifeisshort2 6 ай бұрын

Yea 100 % 3 bedroom 1800 sq ft more or less will be huge. And the easiest to maintain tax heat hydro etc

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Yup, the towns/semi will be popping I suspect.

@12sky22 6 ай бұрын

I understand, if you're first time home buyer, or moving to Toronto, and sell your house taking a loss, is really bad and I feel for you, but if you bought pre constructions house for investment, you deserve lose money, because you created this bubble and took a chance of some family have a place to live.

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

That'll generally be the precon market.

@andrewmccoll1582 6 ай бұрын

Prediction: Whatever everybody expects or seems most obvious will NOT happen. It's the nature of things. Look at the recession calls - and bearish home price predictions of the last 15 years (especially 2020).

@HN-Anonymous 6 ай бұрын

That’s true to some degree, but I think this market it’s more obvious, like when everyone knew BoC wouldn’t raise rates anymore and it’s steady at 5% etc. and everyone is predicting it will come down a bit in the next year , seems reasonable. But you are definitely right that in stocks and other investments it almost always does not follow what most people think, it’s very tricky.

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Hahhaha, you cannot predict the unpredictable.

@Jo-mf2vu 6 ай бұрын

The majority of Canadians expect the real estate market will continue to go up as it has for the past 20 years. The majority of Canadians think real estate is the best possible investment you can make. Most Canadians have no clue about the business cycle or what global macro even is. Therefore if you believe what the majority thinks will happen will in the end not happen, then you believe the housing market will crash.

@andrewmccoll1582 6 ай бұрын

@@Jo-mf2vu It seems there has been an overwhelming bearish stance against RE these past 6 months, which is the opposite of what you describe.

@Jo-mf2vu 6 ай бұрын

@@andrewmccoll1582There are lots of bears on Twitter and here on KZfaq. But the general Canadian population thinks RE can only go up.

@user-wy9oj4hx7f 6 ай бұрын

Yes im seeing this first hand. I know three guys that bought pre construction sale now all are under water with rent. Average short fall of $1500.00 per month. 😂 Can’t sell they will lose 100k.

@GreenBeanGreenBean 6 ай бұрын

negative cashflow =/= losing money. If you put money into a RRSP, that is negative cashflow. If you buy a gold bar, that is negative cashflow. Are they actually losing money? probably not.

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Hahaha lol

@keepitreato 6 ай бұрын

Agreed.

@Internationale1 6 ай бұрын

No need laugh about it 🤷🏽‍♂️

@ErichNolanBertussi 6 ай бұрын

i think sentiment is way worse than people realise and things might be worse than you expect. a LOT of people are seriously distressed and holding on to straws.

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Depends on job losses I think.

@ErichNolanBertussi 6 ай бұрын

@@PrimePropertiesTO sentiment is hard to predict indeed, albeit the published factors continually omit existential realities being experienced by the majority of wage earners.... job losses would accelerate negative sentiment uptake indeed...

@lindabutt1481 6 ай бұрын

I struggle believing this, have you been to a restaurant lately? They are packed. I keep asking myself, how are so many people out for dinner if they are struggling. The lineups in the stores have been crazy, sorry I am just not seeing this.

@tszwong1 6 ай бұрын

Nobu is still good. Thank god!

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Preach!

@tszwong1 6 ай бұрын

@@PrimePropertiesTO I just remember you bought your Riocan place around the same time. I haven't bought anything since

@keepitreato 6 ай бұрын

You must be joking. Nobu assignments are all over. I saw a studio sell last week for $1020 per sq foot

@tszwong1 6 ай бұрын

@keepitreato it was selling for 850 a sqft during precon. So yes I am ok

@sazzadbhuiyan3490 6 ай бұрын

Prices will go up in your dream 😮😮 only

@12sky22 6 ай бұрын

😂 They can put the price up, but I don't believe, if there's any buyer willing to pay.

@sazzadbhuiyan3490 6 ай бұрын

It's not a matter of choice , it's the affordability ..... Right now, renting is cheaper than owning & this trend will continue at least for the next 24 months

@PrimePropertiesTO 6 ай бұрын

Affordability has gotten much better since fixed rates went down with the qualifying rate.

@Hoser584 6 ай бұрын

how many of these are your clients

@Lifeisapartydresslikeit 6 ай бұрын

As soon as rates go to 4.2% watch out!! 1.5 million immigrants… and I know by 2025 - prices will be higher than they are guaranteed. Look at Oakville? It’s softened but not by much. There are still places that are expensive and that class of people will keep the home prices high… Klienburg and King City and Aurora… so everyone can keep dreaming and thinking prices are going to fall to 2019 pricing?! Not a chance… if so… people will be there to scoop them up

@cristJUNlee 6 ай бұрын

This guy was super bullish and now he is more reasonable 💩

@Carolinapetroska 6 ай бұрын

He just wants us to believe things are going to improve but they are not.....

@Carolinapetroska 6 ай бұрын

You are not thinking right. Prices will continue to fall. That's obvious.

@luccac6247 6 ай бұрын

Maybe some of you liberal supporters back east could wake the f up and vote the traitors out. This mess has been created by your beloved MPs and party you all support. Pretty much owe the rest of the country an apology.