Ecuador 4 Weeks into the Crisis, Update and Anaysis - Similarities to Mexico

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Fall off the Map

Fall off the Map

5 ай бұрын

Four weeks into this conflict in Ecuador between the narco terrorists and the government, here’s my thoughts and analysis on what’s happening in Ecuador. 🇪🇨
The cartels and gangs in Ecuador will reorganize and respond with tactics similar to what they used in Mexico because those tactics were effective. They were unprepared for the strong response from the Noboa government and the first weeks of this war were devastating for them. I believe we are about to see a renewed wave of violence as the cartels attempt to undermine confidence in the Noboa government. Elections are 14 months out. The cartels will intentionally create chaos and take actions to terrify the public in the hopes that they can help elect a naro-friendly cartel sponsored president.
Whether their terror tactics work or not depends on funding. The Ecuadorian government desperately needs help from their partners in this war with the cartels.

Пікірлер: 185
@a.alexandrajimenez8437
@a.alexandrajimenez8437 5 ай бұрын
I always enjoy your videos. Thank you for posting them. As an Ecuadorian, how much others criticize President Noboa is very frustrating. He does not need to live there; he does not need that job; he is a millionaire. He is just trying to help the Ecuadorian people; I stopped watching the news and other KZfaqrs. Are they for Ecuador or their interest? The president is trying his best, risking his life and family's safety for the country. I wish people would leave him alone and let him handle the chaos in Ecuador. I agree with you and all you said; you are not Ecuadorian, and you are more educated about Ecuadorian politics than some.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Thank you for saying this. Yeah, I really feel that we couldn’t have a better president to handle this situation. The odds are stacked against him but he has a chance of succeeding if he is able to get enough support from the international community. For a small country like Ecuador to go up against international cartels that are able to outspend the government is a difficult task.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
SIR, YOUR ANALYSIS IS 'RIGHT ON'. MY HUSBAND IS A TRAINED CRISIS MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR, FF, AND PARAMEDIC, AND AGREES WITH YOUR ANALYSIS. SO, DO I. WE ALL NEED TO CONTINUE TO PRAY FOR ECUADOR AND IT'S PRESIDENT. THANK YOU FOR THIS VIDEO. I PLAN TO SHARE IT WITH OTHERS.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I appreciate that. Please do share. Also, please try to stop using the caps key and type normally.
@BarceMessi
@BarceMessi 5 ай бұрын
ARE YOU OLD AS HELL? WHY YOU TYPE LIKE THIS
@TheXone7
@TheXone7 4 ай бұрын
God bless you!
@judiarvay1146
@judiarvay1146 4 ай бұрын
To anyone that has listened to this recording. would you think it would be a bad time to travel to Equador?
@Lordmij
@Lordmij 4 ай бұрын
Why u shouting jk
@jayklink851
@jayklink851 5 ай бұрын
One of the reasons the Sinaloa cartel has been incredibly successful is that, in at least Mexico, the leadership adopted a strategy of winning hearts and minds. Every other cartel in Mexico, and it would appear also to be the case in Ecuador, have a predatory mindset. In effort to maximize profit, they extort every business, and those are the businesses owners are allowed to keep. Often times, cartels outright steal people's farms and businesses via violence and coercion. While Sinaloa, on the other hand, builds hospitals, restores highways and provide free, or extremely discounted, food for the poor. People could just live their lives (historically). I realize Sinaloa's Ecuadorian proxies behave like heavy-handed thugs; oppressing and stealing from civilians. And sadly, I believe Ecuador may end up sharing a similar fate to that of Mexico. The only possible silver lining, which may not be relevant in the long run, is that the Ecuadorian gangs have completely alienated themselves from the public. El Salvador was damn near a failed state; anarchy and chaos were the norm. But somehow El Salvador's fortunes were reversed. Myself, and probably most people, thought El Salvador was a completely hopeless. Maybe with the right officials, and the will of the public (and law enforcement) Ecuador too can prevail.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Your description of the Sinaloa cartel reminds me of Pablo Escobar’s approach.
@valarieknight7990
@valarieknight7990 4 ай бұрын
Sadly, I don't see the Ecuadorians having any "Will". They will go wherever the money is. They're looking for easy money. On the whole they are not much different than the Cartel. On the whole they will lie and they will steal whenever they can. Not only from gringos but also from each other. They want their money, but they rarely, if ever give anything of value in return. The fact so many of them are leaving Ecuador for "free stuff" is a testament to what I am saying. These are children, like the democrats in the U.S. offer them free ice cream and they'll vote for you and love you, or as long as you keep giving them free ice cream. smh
@gford9988
@gford9988 5 ай бұрын
well thought out. Wish I could disagree, but I suspect your analysis is spot on. Makes me think when US citizen retiring in central or south America, they need to rent before buying and have a "bug out" plan.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yeah, having some sort of escape plan or at least being emotionally prepared to cut your losses and get out is important.
@TheXone7
@TheXone7 4 ай бұрын
Excellent analyses. Eye opening. I learned a lot in past 30 minutes from your videos. Thank you and God bless you!
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
Glad to hear it!
@luckclumonM3
@luckclumonM3 5 ай бұрын
As an American living in Ecuador currently things have calmed down dramatically from the initial wave of crime followed by Fitos escape . Cordination from the police and military unites have made progress. It’s going to take time to heal and fix what needs to be done but hopefully this new president can turn things around.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yes, it’s much calmer at the moment. My concern is with how the cartels respond after their initial losses. Perhaps we’ll get lucky and they will just roll over and accept defeat, but I doubt it.
@valarieknight7990
@valarieknight7990 4 ай бұрын
I don't know where you live but here in Cuenca, after the first announcement and everyone was running for their homes and locking themselves in, it's pretty much forgotten. It's Carnaval time and they're out shooting silly string and water at each other. They remind me so much of children. They were scared but now, they have ice cream and they've forgotten all about the bad man. No healing required, just ice cream.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
@@valarieknight7990 I don’t think Ecuadorians have forgotten, but culturally and psychologically they need to put their stress and worries on hold while they enjoy carnival. It’s very similar to how the U.S. can be in a recession and everyone struggling to pay their mortgage, yet people still go out and buy a bunch of stuff on credit for Christmas. People refuse to lose their cherished holidays and traditions.
@kellyhayes1618
@kellyhayes1618 5 ай бұрын
I live in BC where the government has allowed possession of minimal amounts of hard drugs, including fentinyl. The overdose rates have since skyrocketed. However, the provincial coroner is suggesting that BC keep the path with legalization where doctors are able to prescribe hard drugs, including cocaine, meth, even fentinyl. If you want to control the drug trade, it has to start at the source of the problem. Giant pharmaceuticals FYI, I am Canadian (Quebeois) moving to Ecuador very soon. And I (and my dog) are not intimidated.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I’m not particularly intimidated either, though my level of risk acceptance is a bit off from what most folks are comfortable with. Unfortunately, when it comes to full legalization and regulation, there are a lot of countries that do not have the resources or cultural resistance to manage it, and drug markets quickly move and shift. Legalization in California has resulted in high quality cannabis being smuggled south to Tijuana where it’s still illegal and sold for more than it can be in California. It’s a little bit of a myth that drug consumption in the U.S. (or Canada) is the root cause. Walking around cities like Armenia or Pasto in Colombia it was obvious there was a massive problem with local drug consumption. Of course as revenue drops for certain parts of the cartels’ businesses they just shift into human trafficking, extortion, etc… the problem is the cartels themselves and a culture that allows criminality to breed, even glorifies it.
@MarVlas
@MarVlas 4 ай бұрын
As a European female I feel the same, me and my son wanna move there, Europe is probably going into war in the upcoming years. Not waiting to experience the same starvation as my Dutch grandmother had to go through. I don´t even have a garden like she had because prices are way to high. Ecuador seem like one of the last countries that has some freedom when choosing the right area.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
@@MarVlas this is exactly what I felt when moving here and after 11 years here still what I feel. As an American that has seen American wars, has experienced Afghanistan, I want to be far away from whatever is coming next. Ecuador is far from perfect, but we live in a world where nothing is perfect but it is still possible to find islands of peace. Ecuador is accustomed to crisis. People know how to roll with the punches. They don’t freak out and start killing and robbing their neighbors. In times of crisis they band together and the communities grow stronger.
@MarVlas
@MarVlas 4 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap That's what I was hoping for, the cultures were people know how to survive a food crisis and people that help each other. I am gonna watch your videos because I wanna know which areas are let's say still safe. I lived in the middle east were they also make almost everything from scratch, they're used to being poor and help each other out, so I knew what to look for but then not in the middle east. Glad I found your channel.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
I don’t know that most of my videos will be helpful to you in this very specific search but you’re definitely asking the right questions. The best answers are something you find by spending weeks or months exploring different communities here.
@SusanStautzenbach-bg1oh
@SusanStautzenbach-bg1oh 5 ай бұрын
Ps been Ecuador 2yr ago 💕 will return prayers 🙏 with my beautiful peoples of Ecuador keep the faith 🥰💫
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I am confident that Ecuador will get through this situation, though I think it will take longer and be more difficult than most people want to believe.
@garlandetheridge9902
@garlandetheridge9902 4 ай бұрын
Totally agree with your 2CENTS. Thanks
@michaelmarino334
@michaelmarino334 5 ай бұрын
thank you for your honest opinion
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
You’re welcome. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
@user-wi4nn3vd9l
@user-wi4nn3vd9l 4 ай бұрын
Thank you brother!☮️❤️🙏🏻
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
You’re welcome.
@jerrygarcia4390
@jerrygarcia4390 5 ай бұрын
Thank you 👍🏾
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
You’re welcome
@GR-ju4db
@GR-ju4db 5 ай бұрын
I hope you're incorrect in thinking the Ecuadorian citizens will eventually abandon President Noboa due to their short term outlook or feelings of the moment. I think the people respect the fact that Noboa's trying to change the status quo and realize it's in their best interest to eliminate all of the corruption. No doubt tourism has tanked, and will for quite awhile, which will hurt the economy. The people should realize this is NOT Noboa's fault, but was brought on by the ever increasing level of crimes committed by the cartels and gang members. Until these criminals are squashed like the cockroaches they are, Ecuador will never be the country it could be. It's up to people like you and me to support and spread a POSITIVE message about what President Noboa is accomplishing in order to make sure he is re-elected in the future. He is the best thing that's ever happened to Ecuador and his leadership should have nothing but our full support!
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Of course I agree with you about what should happen, but I already see some exhaustion for people in the campo. If, as I suspect, there is a more coordinated campaign of violence and disruption I think it has a reasonable chance of sabotaging Noboa.
@josephgarceau6753
@josephgarceau6753 5 ай бұрын
In my opinion, it is easier for an expat or a wealthy Ecuadorian to support a continued fight against the cartels and corruption. However, many Ecuadorians live day to day or have maybe 1 or 2 weeks of savings. They are selling water, mangos, or coconut in the streets, and when there are fewer people out on the streets due to fear their situation degrades rapidly. Some workers are losing their jobs and small businesses are seeing far fewer customers. An agricultural worker in rural Ecuador may have a newborn baby who needs $70 worth of baby formula per month. His 1st job pays $280/ per month and his second job pays $100 and with that their family is barely making it and now he just lost his second job and can't afford baby formula or another family has to pull their child out of private school and therefore their child has a much lower chance of getting into a university and earning a decent salary. These are also families who have witnessed members of the police and military be part of extortion and kidnapping rackets along with the cartels. It is a much bigger sacrifice for them to endure an economic downturn due to instability and they probably have less faith in the government and institutions. While it probably is the best thing to drop the hammer down and have a firm hand on these cartels in the long term, many of these people are barely keeping their heads above water at present and the future is a luxury. They are desperate for the economy to improve and can't afford to wait too long for things to get better and that is why they are thinking it may be better to just compromise with the cartels.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
@@josephgarceau6753 exactly. This is what the cartels understand that I suspect few expats and few people within the Noboa government understand. The clock is ticking on Noboa’s wave of public support.
@SusanStautzenbach-bg1oh
@SusanStautzenbach-bg1oh 5 ай бұрын
Thank you 🥰🦋🙏💐
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Welcome 😊
@MWCEcuador
@MWCEcuador 5 ай бұрын
I live in a great community in Ecuador and love it. In the US there are 20 million more guns than people, road rage, tribalism, a shortage of curious minds, and a crazy cult leader. The challenges Ecuador face are on a much smaller scale than the US. There are hot spots all over the world. Be aware of your surroundings, be a a good neighbor, don't worry be happy. (-:
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I agree with all of that, but I also think we are in for a rough patch between now and the next election in Ecuador.
@amarie3309
@amarie3309 5 ай бұрын
For both the US and Ecuador the next elections are crucial I admire Ecuador for how the government has responded. How many people and drugs captured kudos to yo😊 If the US would do this without wanting to elect a crazed strongman, “I want to be dictator for life” BS, I wouldn’t be looking for an exit strategy. But sadly we are the country those drugs are being supplied to. It’s the root of many problems here God bless Ecuador and the US, deliver us both from evil.
@Lordmij
@Lordmij 4 ай бұрын
Plz do not compare Ecuador with the states
@juanpiguave1808
@juanpiguave1808 3 ай бұрын
Predicción o análisis....repostee este video a algunos amigos pues yo creí que exactamente iba a ser una paz TEMPORAL
@Rson66
@Rson66 5 ай бұрын
Well done. Thanks. I hope you are wrong about the upcoming days/weeks. Dang.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Literally minutes after uploading the video there was a text message about two local businesses being robbed in the little town near my farm. We will have to wait and see what the coming days bring.
@GMAceM
@GMAceM 5 ай бұрын
Well said Jesse, I got a lot to say and a I think I’ll only mention a fraction of it on here in order to avoid it getting too excessive lol First, I have faith in Noboa because he’s combating what everyone’s been ignoring these past few years BUT that doesn’t mean I think he’s perfect or that his plan is guaranteed to succeed. It’s certainly on the right track, but like I mentioned in my 1 week update video we still have to see what happens next. This next part is gonna sound passive aggressive but someone’s gotta say it: Not high is an overstatement, it’s pretty much nonexistent. What people see is “oh he gave me $100! Vote for him!!!” I’ve always disliked (for lack of a stronger word) the election cycle because it’s always been so fake. The presidential or mayoral candidates take pretty pictures doing something “generous” and that’s not who they actually are. I could keep going but 😮‍💨 I hope, and I can only hope because people always seem to forget, that with all the corruption being discovered in the metastasis case and everything that’s been going on that people STOP VOTING FOR THE SAME PEOPLE WHO HAVE ALREADY LEFT US IN THE POSITION THAT WE’RE CURRENTLY AT. Just my thoughts as an Ecuadorian and as someone who really just wants the country to get better. Edit: thanks for taking the time to talk about the news and making an analysis of it. It obviously isn’t the ideal topic because who wants to hear bad things but for now it’s necessary. The adventures will continue once everything has settled down!
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Ace, I appreciate hearing from you and would love to have a longer discussion for both of our KZfaq audiences to hear. I absolutely believe that Noboa is the best possible president we could hope for right now. However, my outlook isn’t super positive because the challenges are bigger than Ecuador. I do think things will eventually be better than they are now, but I don’t expect a victory over the cartels. I expect a negotiated peace after a period of chaos and suffering. I hope I am wrong. I would love to tell everyone about how wrong I was.
@luisdetomaso867
@luisdetomaso867 5 ай бұрын
Curious why you've modelled your Ecuador prediction after Mexico instead of El Salvador?
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Because El Salvador had several advantages Ecuador doesn’t have. Bukele planned his war against the gangs well. Before going to war with them he first negotiated with them in bad faith, tricking them into thinking they were safe, while he purged the courts of corruption. He built his new prisons, then he made his move against the cartels. In Ecuador the cartels have had the opportunity to learn from their mistakes in El Salvador. When Noboa announced his plan to build a new supermax prison the cartels knew to act first and not wait until the government was perfectly positioned to destroy them. Ecuador is more strategically important to current smuggling routes than El Salvador so the international cartels will put more resources into fighting Noboa.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
COPIED FROM ANOTHER COMMENTER... One of the reasons the Sinaloa cartel has been incredibly successful is that, in at least Mexico, the leadership adopted a strategy of winning hearts and minds. Every other cartel in Mexico, and it would appear also to be the case in Ecuador, have a predatory mindset. In effort to maximize profit, they extort every business, and those are the businesses owners are allowed to keep. Often times, cartels outright steal people's farms and businesses via violence and coercion. While Sinaloa, on the other hand, builds hospitals, restores highways and provide free, or extremely discounted, food for the poor. People could just live their lives (historically). I realize Sinaloa's Ecuadorian proxies behave like heavy-handed thugs; oppressing and stealing from civilians. And sadly, I believe Ecuador may end up sharing a similar fate to that of Mexico. The only possible silver lining, which may not be relevant in the long run, is that the Ecuadorian gangs have completely alienated themselves from the public. El Salvador was damn near a failed state; anarchy and chaos were the norm. But somehow El Salvador's fortunes were reversed. Myself, and probably most people, thought El Salvador was a completely hopeless. Maybe with the right officials, and the will of the public (and law enforcement) Ecuador too can prevail.
@leeennise.a3338
@leeennise.a3338 4 ай бұрын
I wonder if anyone is talking about legalizing & taxing the coca that's already legal in leaf form?
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
Technically the sale of coca leaves is not legal in Ecuador, though there is no enforcement of the law for cultural reasons. This is why you can find people selling boxes of coca tea (usually imported from Peru) in front of the presidential palace in Quito. As for cocaine, there isn’t really any discussion about legalizing and taxing it in this part of the world. Under President Correa possession of small amounts of cocaine were decriminalized but rather than reducing the power of the mafias it seemed to have the opposite effect and domestic sales and consumption increased. That law that allowed possession of small amounts of cocaine, as well as most other drugs has been repealed. There’s also been significant evidence that marijuana legalization in places like California didn’t reduce the power of the Mexican cartels. They were able to quickly adapt and this is cited as one of the reasons they shifted toward fentanyl as a way to replace the marijuana revenue with something more profitable and more dangerous.
@greensorrel6860
@greensorrel6860 5 ай бұрын
Infiltration and chaos are tactics used in Western countries, too.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
Sure, but nowhere near to the same extent. These tactics are far more effective in places where the government is weak, the rule of law is more of a suggestion than a standard, and the population is easily swayed by rumors and disinformation. And yes, I know, disinformation is a huge problem in places like the U.S. as well, but at least in the U.S. there is an organized and moderately effective effort to combat disinformation. In a place like Ecuador disinformation is the norm and basic facts about what is happening are unattainable for not only the general public but even for public officials.
@franciscoburgos787
@franciscoburgos787 5 ай бұрын
Random question bud. How bad is the language barrier down there?
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Pretty bad. Ecuador is a tough place to guy by without Spanish unless you stick to tourist towns.
@BPe-ie9je
@BPe-ie9je 5 ай бұрын
Thanks!! Good info. Perspective. **You could hang a shingle/sign, get the word out , anywhere, get good paying work.Epecially electrical. EC Electrical , often, is so so. Same w plumbing. Coast: Olon, that immediate area-south. Flts are cheap right now. Fly to Manta. although you have a car. hm. Look forward to your adventure/report. Stay safe.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I don’t really look for electrical work in Ecuador. If I hear about someone who has a problem that is likely to be dangerous and local electricians have failed them then I may lend a hand on a case by case basis, but there’s no way I can charge enough for it to be worth my time to put my shingle out. In this particular case on the coast the combination of undersized wiring for the circuit breakers in a wooden house and no grounding on suicide showers worries me enough to want it fixed right because with those problems it’s a matter of when not if something tragic happens.
@jakobmichael97
@jakobmichael97 5 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap oh my gosh, I know these Ecuadorian suicide showers all too well and I have never trusted them. When I was staying with an Ecuadorian familiy in Riobamba, I preferred switching off the cutout-switch in the bathroom and showered in cold water every morning for 2 months, cause I was too scared 😅
@valarieknight7990
@valarieknight7990 4 ай бұрын
Have you seen how they build buildings? I went to visit a friend at Hotel Oro Verde, in the States this place would be condemned. I saw a building they're building down the road and it's already collapsing and they just started on it. smh They have no clue about negative and positive air pressure when it comes to plumbing. And for some reason they place 12 switches in a room where there's only one light. smh None of the floors are level. I asked an Ecuadorian friend of mine, who's building a home, why didn't flatten the land first? He said it was too expensive. I asked him how much would it cost to cut the land and flatten it for 1500sqft? He said it would cost $750! Seriously, you don't want to spend $750 and would rather have floors that are warped and wavy? smh
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
@@valarieknight7990 yes, sometimes it’s really difficult for us to understand people with priorities that are very different from our own. I can definitely see an Ecuadorian prioritizing saving $750 over having level floors.
@peterliggett5233
@peterliggett5233 5 ай бұрын
Actually, if you want a long long term view of a mafia state, study Italy and Sicily.There alternate criminal government ; mafias, have been around since the mid 1800, s There mafias lowest point of power was under Mussolini.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yeah, at the moment I’m more conserved with the short and mid term situation.
@thelostcreole
@thelostcreole 5 ай бұрын
The Mafia had good intenciones after the chaos caused after the unification of Italy. There was no law and order. Unfortunately, much like most human endesvours corruption and abuse set in. It took a strong arm dictator like Il Duce to reel them into control. El salvador has its Mussillini .... Ecuador needs the same.
@karl0d0ca
@karl0d0ca 5 ай бұрын
Thank you for sharing your analysis. While dark, it is certainly a probable outcome. I was wondering when the costs issue were going to come home to roost for this govt to maintain a semblance of control and progress, and, for how long and for how much will the common person be accepting of the tradeoffs of their freedom and enterprise whilst struggling to put daily food on the table. (Perhaps this is the sentiment you were trying to convey while using terminology of "political education") I can't figure what would be the incentive for US to intervene and support the govt. No point relying on Europeans, they are not even coughing up their share of the budget of NATO. Any thoughts on the Albanian cartel presence and operation in Ecuador ? Seems like the news and crackdown has omitted any mention of the Albanian cartels.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yes, there’s radio silence about the Albanian cartel. I’ve tried to research it a bit without much luck. You touch on a point I didn’t think to make… the economic exhaustion of the average person in Ecuador as this situation drags on.
@juicebox853
@juicebox853 5 ай бұрын
Are you or youtube censoring comments here? I have noticed that many comments are not available.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I haven’t deliberately censored any comments here and generally approve almost all comments even if I strongly disagree with them. In the history of my channel I think I’ve only deleted comments from one or two raging lunatics that were spewing abuse and unintelligible nonsense. That said, KZfaq often filters comments and I occasionally need to go into my unpublished comments tab to manually approve them. Thanks for the heads up. I’ll go check it now. Edit: checked the “unpublished” tab and didn’t see any comments filtered out by KZfaq. What motivated this comment? Anything specific or are you just mucking about creating doubt for the heck of it?
@juicebox853
@juicebox853 5 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap OK, I did not think so, and I did not see any comments that were what I would consider inappropriate. However, when I look at some comments here and it will show like 3 replies, and I can maybe see 1. Must be some YT stuff going on. Thanks.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Weird. Sometimes I have a bit of a delay on the KZfaq app for comments to appear…
@rua.001
@rua.001 5 ай бұрын
Is there no way lock down the only exit point for the drugs, the ports? Have the military be hyper vigilant and be insanely stringent on what goes out. It will slow the port down but it’s THE reason the drugs are coming through Ecuador. If Colombia had a port, the drugs would go out of there instead.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Everything is possible if you can throw enough money ey at it. Ecuador has no money to throw at the problem. They don’t know how they are going to continue paying for the salaries of their police and military, much less hiring more people to search every container leaving the port, protecting and paying those people enough to keep them from being corrupted by the cartels, buying the equipment necessary to x-ray shipments, etc…
@frankkluz9787
@frankkluz9787 5 ай бұрын
I've noticed how the people responded in the Philippines - when a Mayor personally murdered drug dealers in his city ! -- He encouraged citizens who were able to do the same. He won (THEY WON) & it's the safest city in the country now. (+) Then the people elected him President of the country !!! - - - Perhaps the people themselves - in Ecuador - must decide what kind of country they want to live in ? 🤔 Mexico is a lost cause. --- But I'd bet the Filipinos would share -- their -- '''success methods'''. --?-- 👍🙏💪
@Raffaelo08
@Raffaelo08 5 ай бұрын
My Dad loves Ecuador 🇪🇨
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
The immature 11 year old in me desperately wants to make a your mom joke but I’m just not finding the angle.
@ExpatGringo
@ExpatGringo 5 ай бұрын
I was afraid of that... Thanks!
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Me too.
@askme0084
@askme0084 5 ай бұрын
I agree with many of your sentiments. However, if there is a foreign presence such as US military assistance, I think cartels may have a hard time trying to overrun the country. I agree 100% that liberal indigenous leader could potentially harm the country. Great information, sir!
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yes, inviting the U.S. military back into Ecuador could be a game changer. The problem, however, is how distracted the U.S. is with other global problems and the timeline. It’s unlikely the U.S. will move with enough urgency to make a difference before the next election cycle in Ecuador, and if the correistas return to power they will kick the U.S. out again just as Rafael Correa did.
@tomjeffersonwasright2288
@tomjeffersonwasright2288 4 ай бұрын
El Salvador's president built a supermax prison, and militarized the police to jail all gang members. Public support soared. But many innocent people were jailed too. It appears the public will rally behind a strong protective president, and live with the injustices.
@caogomi
@caogomi 5 ай бұрын
It is weird how the tactics and psychology you mention can on some level be applied to the US... it might seem laughable and I am not trying to make a direct comparison. But it is definitely a playbook be it the big stick or the carrot.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
It’s not weird at all. It’s inevitable, though rather than an actual crime wave in the U.S. it’s much easier to just manufacture the illusion of a crime wave, or a wave of immigrants, or whatever crisis pushes your buttons. Wag the dog.
@kristiG5259
@kristiG5259 4 ай бұрын
Thank you for your take on the current and future situation. I agree, Ecuador needs some international help but it seems so many other parts of the world are concentrating on blowing each other up. Noboa should seriously consider throwing some $ into media to educate people a bit more on what's going on (though I realize it's hard to think about the future when you're trying to survive in the present). Hitler fooled the world with radio and newspaper!
@noah786
@noah786 5 ай бұрын
Stay safe
@contingencywoman8550
@contingencywoman8550 5 ай бұрын
Just an idea: If Noboa's family offered to put up one US dollar for every dollar donated to fund the fight to end drug cartel lawlessness, rather than upping the VAT tax on every day citizens, wouldn't that garner needed support from the indigenous coalition and perhaps help Noboa be reelected in 14 months? Also, why exclude more lucrative businesses like banks from contributing through their taxes while taxing the working poor at a higher rate than they are already paying? Small businesses are the foundation of the economy. Owners of small businesses are the ones struggling to survive, already being extorted by criminals. If Noboa wants to maintain the good will of the people and remain in office he would want to do everything possible to help them survive economically. Otherwise there will certainly be another paro and that creates more economic pain and could bring in a Venezuela type goverment.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Noboa’s family is wealthy, but their wealth wouldn’t put a dent in the sort of economic need that Ecuador has right now. What you’re proposing is not well thought out. I do agree that the VAT increase isn’t a solution and would lead to a paro. I think it is reasonable to ask for financial help from the international community since this is not just an Ecuador problem. I think it may also be necessary to make some painful decisions such as selling some government owned resources like mineral rights.
@valarieknight7990
@valarieknight7990 4 ай бұрын
I've been here a couple of years, and I can tell you very few businesses, actually pay taxes. Unless you specifically ask for a factura you are usually not taxed. However, there are also businesses who do charge tax but they don't pay it to the government they pocket it. I learned this when I noticed my local tienda was charging me tax but I wasn't getting an electronic factura and there was nothing showing up in my account showing I paid it. Ecuador relies mostly on the U.S. (almost a Billion dollars from Uncle Biden), China and Russia giving it money. They also get it from the large grocery stores, mall stores, hospitals, etc... but most businesses do not pay taxes. Which means most "working poor" don't pay taxes, it's optional.
@contingencywoman8550
@contingencywoman8550 4 ай бұрын
@@valarieknight7990 Great insight regarding the local tienda asking you to pay tax when they aren't actually paying it to the goverment themselves. I'm trying to learn all I can before actually relocating to EC, a move I've been researching for at least two years. I don't know if it's true, but someone said Ecuadorian banks aren't taxed. Since banking tends to be more lucrative than many other businesses that was the main thought I was trying to put forward. I don't know if there would be unintended negative consequences to taxing bank profits; but it seems like a possible partial answer to the current funding problem and maybe something to consider.
@contingencywoman8550
@contingencywoman8550 4 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Thank you for your thoughts on the subject. I agree Ecuador needs help from the international community. Just was thinking if Noboa wants to be reelected in fourteen months, his own family contributing financially in a public way might speak to the hearts of the people and help him remain popular. Although he's already risking his life when he doesn't need to by trying to lead the country in a better direction.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
The National Assembly rejected the bill to raise sales tax but just approved a bill to retroactively tax banks on profits they made last year. It’s a one off, so it only taxes bank profits from 2023. Because bank lending impacts so many other aspects of the economy I suspect they are trying out to see what sort of ripple effects it will have throughout the economy.
@joekillaya
@joekillaya 4 ай бұрын
When is the next general election in Ecuador? Why is the cartel interested in potentially causing trouble over the next 14 months? Isn't it every 4 years when there is an election? Thanks
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
Noboa was elected in a special election outside the normal election cycles. Next election is in 14… now almost 13 months.
@WanderingWolf365
@WanderingWolf365 5 ай бұрын
But they also know what happened to Pablo Escobar who took the same route. - WW
@Darny1able
@Darny1able 3 ай бұрын
id be careful wot u say .u might end up on a hit list keep safe
@series9193
@series9193 5 ай бұрын
I think you could be correct to an extent but look at the country before this kind of uprising things were in some kind of order. Colombia Ecuador Mexico had a smoother drug trade it’s only when they have power struggles within the cartels that spill out without self correction do we get military correction and usually United states military intervention since the dope ends up in the U.S. you haven’t heard much about Colombian drug problems when chapo was acting a fool in Mexico the U.S. intervened now you don’t hear about problems like Ecuador. Once foreign militaries step in the cartels will get their shite in order but cracking down on the cartels will not erode confidence in this president it will bolster the people’s confidence in him.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
I hope you’re right. Talking g to my neighbors near my farm I hear an anti Noboa sentiment. They don’t look deeply into events to try to understand. There’s a crisis now they blame the current government. Yes, in the cities people tend to be more politically educated, but a huge percentage of Ecuador’s population is rural and votes based on what is happening right now rather than why it’s happening.
@series9193
@series9193 4 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap I can agree with that sentiment
@hydrazi
@hydrazi 5 ай бұрын
I understand why you have this very dark view. I don't agree with it. I think Noboa is still a couple steps ahead. I don't think Ecuador is as important to the cartels as people may think. This craackdown is costing them. Military control of the ports is costing them. Involvement of the US military is going to start costing them. The real cartels are business people. Is it worth it to fight in Ecuador? That is the question that needs to be answered for them.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I hope you are right. I think the cartels learned and adapted from seeing what happened in El Salvador. I disagree about the importance of Ecuador to the cartels. As drug consumption shifted to Europe and Asia Ecuador and Venezuela became more important to the cartels than the traditional routes through Central America.
@FreedomPlaya
@FreedomPlaya 4 ай бұрын
Ecuador should take some advice from the El Salvador president. He surely figured out how to turn His country around.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
To some extent that is what Ecuador is doing. This all started when the president announced a new supermax prison modeled after the new prisons in El Salvador. The advantages Bukele had in El Salvador are that he was able to carefully choose his moment to go after the cartels. He tricked the cartels by pretending to negotiate with them while he built his prisons and purged the courts of corruption. Then, when he had everything in place he moved against the cartels quickly. In Ecuador the cartels have the advantage of learning from El Salvador and didn’t just wait until the government was ready to destroy them. The cartels moved first. The cartels in Ecuador are better funded than they were in El Salvador and the government had less power and money to wage war against the cartels than Bukele did. So far the government is still winning, it will be more difficult than it was in El Salvador even if similar tactics are used.
@Jetmab04
@Jetmab04 5 ай бұрын
Thanks so much for sharing! Unfortunately I am convinced you are right about these cartels.... Do you have any idea how much the Europeans sre involved in this? It's way too obvious Europe have huge interests in this and not least, an interest in Ecuadors president, getting a bad reputation among the Ecuadorian people 😰!! How can we help?? Having the country on top of my list for retirement, I clearly have a huge interest in Ecuador not becoming a new Mexico and/ my European continent getting things as I think have been part of their plans for decades...😰 Europe shall not get it her way again...I know it's easy to write but, I'm more than interested in getting the European insanity stopped and hopefully, stopped forever...what happens over here now, we clearly live in what I can only call a copy of our own History ( not a repetition) which is more than sad and, it's all the old colonials ...we need to find a way, far away from all these drcugs...We and the Ecuadoruans, need to find a way to stop thus and, sooner eather than later!!!??
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I know 30 members of the Albanian mafia were just arrested. The Albanian mafia has been active in Ecuador since the 90s. I don’t see a connection to European governments. Their attention is elsewhere at the moment. I do think there is a lot of interest and interference from China, Russia, and Venezuela.
@valarieknight7990
@valarieknight7990 4 ай бұрын
The connection, if you pay attention to all of the S.A. governments is China. China is sponsoring the Cartel and supplying them. They are using the population of S.A. to flood the U.S. borders. I've seen Venezuela villages which are almost empty because they were told of all the "free stuff" if they go to the U.S. China is no longer hiding, and sending it's own "refugees" across the U.S. border. To focus on the Cartels, is the wrong place to focus. It is China.
@jdsantibanez
@jdsantibanez 5 ай бұрын
Don't risk your life for a video. Take care.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
Uh, he's not. He's going there to help someone out. And he said 'if' he can do a video, he will.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Telling me not to risk my life for a video tells me you haven’t seen some of my older videos. Traveling to Esmeraldas province during a cartel war will be a cakewalk compared to Afghanistan or the remote Antarctic field camps.
@LJ-ht3zm
@LJ-ht3zm 2 ай бұрын
Sounds like the Ecuadorians have a lot in common with the US with respect to their level of political education.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 2 ай бұрын
I don’t think so. In Ecuador you have maybe 3 or 4 percent of the population with any serious political education and ability to analyze events and situations. In the US I’d put that figure at about 35%.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
BE SAFE. MAYBE YOU SHOULD CONSIDER 'NOT' ADVERTISING WHERE YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL TO, RIGHT NOW. PRAYING FOR YOU.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yeah, I wouldn’t put out info like what route I’m taking or what days im traveling. Simply sharing that I’m going to Mompichi seems pretty low risk.
@LivingLovingAbroad
@LivingLovingAbroad 5 ай бұрын
Well said bro, let's hope your analysis is less than correct lol.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Yeah, I do hope it’s wrong. I heard rumors of an attempt at a paro starting tomorrow.
@MrGoodsalesman
@MrGoodsalesman 4 ай бұрын
ya but since they are now terrorist they are not protected with laws. Did you see how nasty the army is?
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
What do you mean “how nasty the army is?” The military is extremely popular in Ecuador and has been effective at what no one else could accomplish, fighting the gangs. They are also a Latin American military and behave in some ways that are popular here but considered abusive by western society, such as beating and abusing prisoners. It is untrue that the narco-terrorists are not protected by any laws.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
FYI, It's pronounced PAR - O, not PEAR- O.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Thanks.
@user-zc9od9wo5c
@user-zc9od9wo5c 5 ай бұрын
I think your analysis on what is likely to come is a fair conclusion but I still tend to disagree and I think you are missing something big. Naboa designated 22 gangs as terrorist organizations. This dramatically changes the rules of engagement and a number of other things. He clearly stated that those who help these groups will be considered terrorists as well. This is a pre-emptive strike against infiltration through corruption as officials will face far more serious consequence for cooperating with the cartels. (there a videos of Ecuadorian military forcing detainees and prisoners sing the national anthem) Also, this open the government up to use many resources, rules, etc.. that were put in place after 9/11 to combat terrorism. Naboa has put Ecuador on the map in a leadership role in fighting cartels by designating cartels as terrorists. In fact, I have heard the Texas governor start to refer to the cartels as terrorists and there has been a bill introduced in US legislation to designate 7 cartels in Mexico as terrorist organizations. It was a political hot topic in the US in 2023 which never amounted to anything, but Naboa has made it a reality in Ecuador. With US elections coming up, this will likely come up again and have broad support from the American people. So, in that environment, how wise would it be for the cartels to unleash terror and violence across Ecuador? Doing so would solidify international support for the Naboa government and increase calls from citizens around the world for their own governments to do the same. I think the cartel there is scurrying underground trying to survive and will be doing so for the next few months before tying to find ways to subvert from within the political processes. Like you mentioned the indigenous leader, people like that they will work to corrupt to subvert economic policy. If that leader makes the mistake of shutting the country down during the security crisis, he will find out what it means to be designated a terrorist. Naboa needs to win on 2 fronts, economic and security. It's easier for cartels to try to subvert the economic front than the security one. But, political opposition who work for the cartels to derail the Naboa agenda would literally be terrorists. (See how important that designation is?) That said, God bless Naboa and the courageous Ecuadorians who support him.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I agree with most of what you say. And we are fighting in the same side. However, I believe the challenges Noboa faces are greater than you realize. Yes, I believe the cartels will unleash a wave of violence in Ecuador in an attempt to swing the election. No, I don’t have confidence in the average Ecuadorian to see through the bullshit and continue to support Noboa. It’s a long shot and for Noboa to succeed he absolutely requires international support.
@user-zc9od9wo5c
@user-zc9od9wo5c 5 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Well, I don't live there (yet) so I can't claim to have a full read on the situation so you could very well be right. Mexico is quite different in that their organizations are much more sophisticated and embedded within society. I haven't heard of any Mexicans being caught up in raids in Ecuador, so the cartels in Ecuador seem supported and, to an extent, controlled by Mexican cartels but are much less sophisticated. The violent enforcers seem to be mostly Columbian and Venezuelan which shows the weakness of the Ecuadorian cartels since Ecuadorian criminals still seem to have some level of hesitance to do so much damage to their own people. Noboa would do well to focus on this more and speak more to the Ecuadorian hearts. "Don't do this to your own people, your own country." "We will work together to find ways to meet your needs to make a living for you and your family." "But you must renounce this life, you must tell your family to renounce this life because as long as you lead that life, you are an enemy to your people and your country." It doesn't need to be complicated, people don't have to be sophisticated to understand this message. The strength of Latin America is in their hearts. Excuse me if this is a bit of a rant. My opinion also is that US citizens are no more sophisticated than anyone else and the US has very bad things coming our way. And we allowed things to get this bad because many do not have the heart or sense of community enough to have stood up against it.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
@@user-zc9od9wo5c dude, this is a beautiful well thought out comment. I appreciate it.
@user-zc9od9wo5c
@user-zc9od9wo5c 5 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Thank you. I put thought into it because my "American" dream has grown outside of the USA to include the rest of the Americas. Also, thank you for sharing your experiences in this world (and Ecuador) with us all. Your videos are important to many and I think this will be much more so in the next few years. Specifically, I want to thank you for this particular video as this hits very close to home for me right now. There is no other Ecuador content creator who has (or would) make such an honest assessment as you have. That speaks highly of your character and your intentions relating to your viewers. Since you have put yourself out there, that inspires me to share a bit as a token of gratitude: A number of family members are "concerned" and on a campaign to save me from myself in my decision to relocate. They share MSM articles of the worst of Ecuador and are concerned for my safety. Ironically, this would be the exact type of video they would share with me in an effort to alter my course. And it's not that I disregard the very real risks of what you say. I recognize that risk, have plans to manage that risk or alter course if I ultimately deem the risk as too high. I literally built a risk management tool for this that is better than what I used while I did that sort of work for a living. As a side note, I find it ironic that my friends and relatives feel the need to warn me about Ecuador while their fellow citizens buy drugs sourced from these same cartels. The USA is an addict nation looking down on their suppliers, all while being blind to the situation which is unfolding at home right before their eyes. Anyway, during my decision and planning process I have came to conclusion that US citizens are facing a dire situation they do not fully understand. Not just US resident citizens but expats who rely on US sourced income as well. It's not until you start setting up your finances and asset growth/preservation measures that you realize how trapped you are within the USD/US financial system. Risk of debt driven USD collapse and resulting USD depreciation/rapid inflation is so high it's almost assured at this point regardless of who wins the next election. How this plays out in USD based Ecuador is a subject into itself. There are no easy answers to this because information sources are very limited and every source has its own agenda. In my opinion the longer term, and more devastating, threat to US (& Canada) citizen expats in Ecuador is more financial than it is the physical safety issues. It is with this thought that I decided to share much more than I normally would. The physical safety risks are actually easier to mitigate than the financial risks. Money buys security. No money and everything in your life is more at risk. Most expats right now have the "luxury" of being able to increase security or move around to safer areas because they have the resources to do so. What happens when one is a resident in a foreign country and wakes up one morning broke and can't work locally? US citizens are insulated and think that can't happen to them so they have no plan for that. But its happened numerous times in numerous places, Ecuador being one of them. Germany, Argentina, some African countries. So, it happens and the USA is flashing the same warning signs as those countries did prior to their crashes. Note: The times it did happen, it happened basically overnight. Leave work Friday and life was kinda ok. Wake up Monday morning flat broke. Expats are generally viewed positively there, in large part because they bring an influx of money into the local economies. This view would change substantially if there are large numbers of expats suddenly too broke to exit and competing for local jobs in an economy where the locals also suffer from the same USD collapse issue. That is the unique situation that USD based Ecuador represents. Expats personal safety situation would change substantially in this situation. This isn't my wingnut opinion, this is the conclusion of a solid risk assessment using the tools I was trained to use. I sincerely want to help those who are like minded soon to be neighbors and have similar concerns/issues facing them. In heavily regulated (confined) US I don't want to "give unlicensed financial advice", but I'll mention the below in a free exchange of ideas. None of it detailed enough to provide individual solutions but may be helpful to get going in the right directions. - Always good to have a fully paid roof over ones head. - IBKR provides access to worldwide diversified investments. I'm not selling them but there are tools that can be used with them that allows one to grow more sophisticated and build broader portfolios. - Most US investors are mistaken in thinking their citizenship blocks them from certain investments. That's not always the case. It's often their "US residency" that blocks them. So, being a citizen but non-US resident can be an advantage that expats need to research heavily. - The previous is a complex issue. Citizenship/Residency is a minefield of tax and investing issues. US non-resident citizens are blocked from buying both US and foreign mutual funds. What's that mean for one's 401k? Converting to IRA, liquidating mutual funds and having to pick US ETF's or stocks to rebuild a portfolio. Expats are effectively blocked from foreign ETF's unless they find ones that provide an annual PFIC statement and have a good tax preparer. - Crypto is not a safe haven in market turmoil, not good as a currency nor a "solid value" as an investment. - People who think Gold is a safe hedge should read about how that worked out for Argentina (and South Korea for that matter) and consider what the street value of gold will be in Ecuador with its own gold mining operations (both legal and illegal) - CD's are only as stable as the banks (US or otherwise) that sell them. - A "safe" 5% return in a time of rapid inflation is a guaranteed loss. - US treasuries, obscure SEC rule change on basis trades will remove a huge liquidity pool. This will soon be published in the federal register and from there a 1 year clock starts ticking. This is huge and under the radar. It's has long been a question of when, not if. This is a solid indication of when. - Over 50% of securities trading is done "off market" in what's called Dark Pools. If one is day trading using exchange data they are only seeing half of the market. The half that lags behind the real market. - One of these "Dark Pools" which does $2 trillion a month in volume recently and conveniently suffered a hack that blocked shorting for days. - Possession is 9/10's of the law and that's in normal times. One lives in Ecuador but has most assets/accts in USA. Is that safe and secure? What happens if one is locked out of their US accounts? How long can they survive like that? Some things to ponder for those who put attention to being prepared, surviving and thriving in strange times. Honestly, as I prepare, I have found that being a US citizen presents the biggest risks to my future even when outside the US. I feel trapped like a rat on a sinking ship. The more I look into it, the more anxiety I feel and expatriation looks like too brutal an option to go through. My own government remains the single largest and most powerful hurdle to a safe, secure and healthy future. My risk management process literally spelled that out to me. Cartel issues? Yeah, it's on the list with earthquakes and landslides.
@thelostcreole
@thelostcreole 5 ай бұрын
Very good insights vacino. I am more positive on the near future. Naboa pulled in the Military Who had a good reputation and less corruptable than the Police. The Military officers and pilots are mostly US trained. These Narcos cannot repel a real fighting force. Naboa IS extremely popular with business and younger generation voters. Money laudering Will continúe to be an issue here but I predict the Carteles Will opt for a more friendly environment....Venezuela. as for the indigenous....thier influence has dropped since 2019 and if strike dies occur....Naboa Will negotiate a deal. Naboa IS not a Narcisist but reminds me of Trump.
@juicebox853
@juicebox853 5 ай бұрын
You lost me at trump.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I do not see parallels between Noboa and Trump. Noboa is extremely articulate, comes across as confident without seeming arrogant, and strikes me as a pragmatist rather than a populist.
@xgtwb6473
@xgtwb6473 5 ай бұрын
​@@juicebox853yeah screw the anti war president, f that guy
@thelostcreole
@thelostcreole 5 ай бұрын
Within a few months of taking Office....Trump flew a drone in Iraq and assasinated a High ranking General. Since that event....Trump negotiated with adversaries instead of going to war. The comparison IS that Naboa came out fully loaded and looks as though the Narcos got the message. He has set the stage as a man to be taken seriously. Now he Will have to show he can make deals instead of war with the current boycot by Russia of bananas and shrimp.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
THE WORD IS SPELLED 'VECINO', NOT VACINO.
@glennedgar5057
@glennedgar5057 5 ай бұрын
There was a show in Miami Vice where police and narco dealers started shoting each other. The crime boss got together and told his minions that the cartel needs the protection of the law to operate. The cartel and police in the end made a deal. The cartel always is more effective through subtitle corruption than through out right vilolence. If vilolence results then results, then this is not crime, but war. Not just war but international war. Right now in San Diego, waves of migrants are landing on beaches where multi million dollar homes exit. This is also north of the largest fleet base on west coast. This is a national security issue. Things do no make sense. There is hidden information which we do not understand.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
While i don’t try to use Miami Vice to understand the cartel wars, there is some truth to it. Yes, eventually things will stabilize into a situation where either the cartels win and prefer to use less violent methods as they become more professional, or the cartels lose and don’t have the power to carry out violent acts. Right now we are not in one of those more stable situations.
@dawnaustin4556
@dawnaustin4556 5 ай бұрын
My heart breaks for Ecuador and people. This country has always had problems of internal corruption and now cartels. They never really seem to get ahead. The majority of population is indigenous and they are led into the false promises of Communism like that "leader" you mentioned. This is nothing new. There's always been this "blind leading the blind" situation until someone offs' that jackass. Sorry, but its the truth. A video of your trip would be great if safe. Thanks for the analysis. I'm half Ecuadorian like your kids and I still have family there.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Somewhere down the road I believe Ecuador will get ahead, but it might be a long way off. Thanks.
@BPe-ie9je
@BPe-ie9je 4 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Question: doesnt the Noboa family have a huge $debt to EC govt? Would it help to pay that off ?
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 4 ай бұрын
@@BPe-ie9je I hadn’t heard of them having a huge debt and would be surprised if it’s true. It’s possible but it’s more likely nonsense propaganda invented by the correistas.
@BPe-ie9je
@BPe-ie9je 4 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Thanks for feedback. Ahhhh, that makes sense. So far, impressed w Noboa. Appreciate you! Hugs to the family. Safe travels. Get that work done!!! 🙂
@juicebox853
@juicebox853 5 ай бұрын
I disagree, but time will tell. The cartels may try, but I do not think they will have much success. Ecuador is a much smaller and easier country to control than Mexico. It does not add much cost to use the military that is already being paid, and the US and other countries will help with intelligence and other resources. Also, I do not believe that President Noboa will allow a Paro that would interfere with security operations. Bukele's success in El Salvador lays out the blueprint for Noboa reelection, and Bukele just won the by over 80% of the vote. The citizens are exhausted by the crime in Ecuador. I believe that Ecuadorians have the second highest number of people leaving the country in South America, behind Venezuela. President Noboa seems to have been very successful and has tremendous support so far, and I do not believe the average person wants to go on being scared to walk in their own neighborhoods.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I hope you’re right.
@xgtwb6473
@xgtwb6473 5 ай бұрын
You mean they'll fund the cartels and give them info, right? Instability in the region fits into the current administrations border policies
@garydawson8972
@garydawson8972 5 ай бұрын
Hmm, is this guy a CIA sock puppet? I feel like there is a complex marketing strategy going on in this presentation.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I am happy to talk with you to try to understand what issues you have with my opinions. I want to stress, these are my opinions, not what I know but what I think and suspect. I strive to be transparent. Yes, I have friends, sources, and contacts that I suspect may be intelligence community contractors. Their input and opinions helped inform and shape my opinions but only when and where it was supported by other evidence and facts.
@amsterdambear610
@amsterdambear610 5 ай бұрын
KZfaqrs use shock value to keep clicks going. Nothing new and it helps to keep some cents coming in! Anyone can start their own KZfaq channel no matter how idiotic!
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
@amsterdambear610 you appear to be here just to troll. If you find something flawed about my opinions feel free to point out specifics, but making vague accusations and personal attacks doesn’t do anything to further your argument.
@deancobb
@deancobb 5 ай бұрын
Unfortunately, I think this is the outlook for the US, as we continue to allow the same people from these countries that have nothing to offer just here for the free stuff and lawlessness.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
Free stuff and lawlessness? You’re talking about it the European settlers, right?
@deancobb
@deancobb 5 ай бұрын
​@@FallofftheMap no about the illegal Hispanics,, Africans , etc. etc. whatever 100 something countries they come from. You see it all over Western countries now, uptick in crime and violence. And please don't use the argument they do jobs Americans don't. They have cost taxpayers much more.
@juicebox853
@juicebox853 5 ай бұрын
Turn off your maga news sources. Your statement is ridiculous.
@Santilasso318
@Santilasso318 5 ай бұрын
So you feel you can say that about Ecuador, because the US (where I presume you're from) has a very high political education ?? That's at best uninformed at worse, intentionally damaging. Ignorance is widespread in the US as well, and I don't say it... Read about it
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
If I were an Ecuadorian making the same observations would you have had the same defensive reaction?
@Santilasso318
@Santilasso318 5 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Sorry if I didn't sound kind, but I think that idea is completely irrelevant, and the same can be said about almost any other country in the world. The drivers of Ecuadorian issues at the moment, are a combination of internal and specially external factors.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
@@Santilasso318 there are absolutely places where the public has a higher level of political education and more long term way of thinking than both Ecuador and the U.S.
@julioalvear1641
@julioalvear1641 5 ай бұрын
Please stop giving out negative opinions that may instill fear in some people. Why not compare to what El Salvador has done. By the way, you say "pero" it is pronounced "paro".
@More_Row
@More_Row 5 ай бұрын
How is this negative opinions. This is his analysis of the situation.
@darrellandsondraholden9457
@darrellandsondraholden9457 5 ай бұрын
REALITY OFTEN INSTILLS FEAR IN THOSE WHO DON'T WANT TO FACE IT. IT'S TIME TO FACE THE POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES.
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
I try to balance my opinions but I always share what I believe. I love Ecuador and don’t plan to leave but I also think we’re in for a longer fight than most people would like to believe and that the outcome will not be a win but more likely accepting a sort of truce and returning to a more peaceful Ecuador while acknowledging that the cartels are still here and thriving.
@amsterdambear610
@amsterdambear610 5 ай бұрын
The gringo take on what’s going on. I think you’re getting ahead of yourself. Wait and see is my advice. Too many experts on KZfaq 🤣
@FallofftheMap
@FallofftheMap 5 ай бұрын
We each are entitled to our opinions.
@BPe-ie9je
@BPe-ie9je 4 ай бұрын
@@FallofftheMap Thanks for all ..... have a safe trip . Get alot of work done. Your friend needs you.
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