Election Polls Explained: What’s Going to Happen?

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Ай бұрын

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With the campaign in full swing, it’s worth asking if the polling has changed, and what does this tell us about what’s likely to happen in the election itself?
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@ABI-qw2bj Ай бұрын

Starmer & Sunak: In full campaign mode Davey: *WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE*

@jakel8627 Ай бұрын

Too right! 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️

@tecwynjones6532 Ай бұрын

@@jakel8627Love how Google is translating "Lib Dem" to "Love Them"

@herbivorethecarnivore8447 Ай бұрын

@@jakel8627 Don't forget that just because they're technically a libertarian party doesn't mean they're not susceptible to the same bullshit as everyone else. They're the ones who said that an anti-war game was pro-war and "outrageous" because it used poppies.

@Saiputera Ай бұрын

@@jakel8627 nah

@volk4523 Ай бұрын

Lib Dems for real Socialism!

@mab9614 Ай бұрын

Davey is the best example of “final exam is tomorrow. Let me go to a pub” mode😂

@MrBoliao98 Ай бұрын

Getting drunk for class participation, this isn't a mode, it is an actual strategy.

@Sammyli99 Ай бұрын

@MrBoliao98 never done that, must be a they uk Thang, which explains a lot. Dumbsters ueber alles.😅😅😅

@Al3x1066 Ай бұрын

"dude we got like 4 weeks, it's fine" 😂😂

@WebToolkit Ай бұрын

The absolute best strategy they have at this point is to just continue taking the piss. After all no one really cares what labour's policies are either, the objective is simply to get rid of the Tories.

@yutawalker3005 Ай бұрын

Honestly the lib dems strategy is just being relatable and it seems to be working 😂

@staticgrass Ай бұрын

The tories should re-introduce black and white telly and steam trains to see if that helps with their core voters.

@pauli2169 Ай бұрын

What about Polio and Watch with mother?

@Handhordcarl Ай бұрын

I do like a good steam train but even that wouldn't get me to vote conservative. Nothing would.

@simonhayward4058 Ай бұрын

i would bring back 60's to 90's year if any parties bring that back. i would.... i really dislike the futustic and techolongy today. it's bs

@HuplesCat Ай бұрын

Child labour in USA southern states is back 😢

@ru2225 Ай бұрын

@@HuplesCatslavery too

@Psi-Storm Ай бұрын

The UK voting system is so broken. How can a party with ~45% votes get 90% of the parliament seats?

@cromusician6153 Ай бұрын

I dont understand how LibDems would get seats and Reform wouldnt despite Reform having a higher polling 🤣

@SirBenjiful Ай бұрын

@@cromusician6153The Lib Dems campaign very hard in a few specific seats so their votes are concentrated there. Reform's votes are more dispersed throughout the country, not high in any given seat - we may see this change though given Farage's return, they will probably campaign like hell to get him elected in Clacton.

@cromusician6153 Ай бұрын

@@SirBenjiful wait, so you guys vote for local seats and they decide parliament seats?

@Pyritie Ай бұрын

@@cromusician6153 yes, it's similar to the US' system except with 650 "states" each worth 1

@withersheep9009 Ай бұрын

@@cromusician6153 LibDems have very concentraed votes whereas Reform are most spread out amongst the whole country, like they might have 8% of the population, but nowhere are they more popular than another party so they dont get any seats. They might have like between 5-10% in each constituaecy and that'll all sum up to about 8%, but nowhere do they represent the voice of most of the people, whereas LibDems will have neglible presence in almost all constituencies but the few where they do have a presence they have a majority of the vote. Its why NI or Scottish parties have a presence because they aren't popular with people in England or Wales but are very popular among people in those places despite lower population.

@CARL_093 Ай бұрын

we knew torries will lose the only question is how big will they lose in the elections

@MarkHewitt1978 Ай бұрын

Right. It is all very interesting and will have long term implications, but for now we just need to know who is going to be PM on 5th July and 99.9% chance that is Starmer.

@iielysiumx5811 Ай бұрын

They seem to have adopted a highly defensive strategy, concentrating on seats they already control by large majorities and trying to sure up support amongst their base (over 65s, the wealthy and small business owners) remains to be seen if it will work

@splashafrica Ай бұрын

I think the UK election will be like the South African election where the ruling party underperforms the polls 100ish years ago the tories kicked of the south african war and the UK suffered black week and all those nice things triggering an Isolated UK and by the end the tories lost power the UK entered a period of isolation...soon after we had the world wars now this time around the decline started with isolation (Brexit) with the world war not so far off...the more things change the more they stay the same

@matthewsemple Ай бұрын

@@iielysiumx5811 yes, it's definitely a campaign based on the assumption that they have no chance of winning. They have clearly written off a load of marginal seats as being hopeless and they are desperately trying to achieve second position so they can at least become the main opposition party.

@calumbishop7082 Ай бұрын

@@MarkHewitt1978 I mean another question is 'how big will the Labour win be?', we are already seeing tensions flaring up between different factions in Labour over the Diane Abbott situation. The smaller the majority for Labour, the more powerful the individual factions of MP's will be.

@SwitchbladeAdrenaline Ай бұрын

Also Nigel Farage became the leader of Reform UK again.

@blueboy3990 Ай бұрын

Holy sh*t, I don't know why he did that, this would significantly hurt the right due to the first past the post system.

@nom_quack_girl Ай бұрын

Yay 🙃😞

@adamking4538 Ай бұрын

@@blueboy3990They offered the tortes an alliance, they refused what happens now is the fault of the tories.

@TheCrimsonS4ge Ай бұрын

@blueboy3990 I think that this is exactly what he wants. He wants to torpedo the tories as hard as possible so that HE can emerge as the leader of the UK Right Wing and can build up his power as opposition leader.

@sillygoosegoose Ай бұрын

@@blueboy3990he’s said quite a lot recently that they want to hurt the tories. my guess is that they know the right won’t win in this election, so they’re happy to split the vote on the chance they get a good number of seats anyway and start gaining traction as a legitimate alternative, and eventually replace the tories as the main right wing party in a couple of elections.

@Matt4412-j7o Ай бұрын

Our voting system is terrible, we should have proportional representation Would be good to see a video on it, I don't think people realise just how bad our current system is

@fatalshore5068 Ай бұрын

We have proportional where I'm from and I think it's the best for sure. It's called the "Hare-Clarke" system if you are interested in such things

@py8554 Ай бұрын

The video about PR should include the history of how Cameron and the Tory cunningly sabotaged the effort to push forward the electoral reform after getting the LibDem on board to form a coalition.

@_Blu-jay Ай бұрын

Primer has a good video simulating alternate voting systems

@cv990a4 Ай бұрын

Single transferable vote.

@PrtyNeal Ай бұрын

America would like to have a word with you 😂

@Shicksalblume Ай бұрын

A proposed return of national service and talk about the Trident nuclear weapons system? This is starting to feel like Yes, Prime Minister. Where's Jim Hacker?

@jonmel Ай бұрын

Jim hacker was an half decent person , un like the conservatives

@scottsterling7659 Ай бұрын

Almost forgot about yes minister

@TheOmegaXicor Ай бұрын

They said it was accurate so Sunak has been watching it

@misterpebbles Ай бұрын

British politics is basically the British public voting for one of the two same parties and then being shocked when nothing changes. 😂

@alansmithee419 Ай бұрын

No, we're not shocked. We understand why it's happening, there are simply no options available to us to fix it. First past the post is the reason it's so difficult to replace the two major parties, not people failing to vote for the right parties. We're unable to because the system would more than likely mean our vote is wasted.

@samw1501 Ай бұрын

We say nothing changes... And yet the country is very different today than it was in 2010. I'm not a Labour fanatic, bit given our broken electoral system, we have two options. Only one metric is needed: compare the country in 2010 with... Let's say 2020 just before pandemic, as it would be unfair to hold the Tories accountable for that. Which state was better? 2010. So vote the Tories out. We can fix our electoral system later.

@Occido391 Ай бұрын

Yes, but following their massive majority the labour party will resist changing the electoral system. Then in 10-15 years time people will tire of them and vote in the Tories to get labour out. Until we have a more effective democracy nothing will change, and voting Labour ensures that it won't change. @@samw1501

@aRandomPerson... Ай бұрын

It's not that different in the USA

@kevlarchicken Ай бұрын

@@alansmithee419 so people think their vote is going to be wasted and never take that first step towards change? seems kinda dumb to me

@Johnmark-iq4gg Ай бұрын

Great video, The first $100,000 invested was amazing. But when you hit $300,000 it’s like smashing the glass ceiling! I cried.

@bonner-qv3mi Ай бұрын

I completely agree with you! My first 100k took a long time and wasn't that special to be honest with you. Once I hit 300K that is the game changer in my opinion. At this point my money is basically making me a pretty good yearly salary. When I go to sleep at night I know my money is making decent money with the help of my FA

@HenryKatty Ай бұрын

Nice. People often underestimate financial advisors' importance. Over 50 years of data reveal that those who work with advisors typically earn more than those who go it alone. I've been fortunate to work with one for 13 years, resulting in a $1 million portfolio, largely from early investments in AI and other growth stocks.

@Johnmark-iq4gg Ай бұрын

I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance.

@bonner-qv3mi Ай бұрын

"Angela Lynn Schilling" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment..!

@Johnmark-iq4gg Ай бұрын

I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip!

@worldwidewonders681 Ай бұрын

This feels like Rishi is standing on the titanic and knowing he will fall in the cold water. The question is just how cold is the water

@georgecaplin9075 Ай бұрын

14 years of the tories and NOW he’s gonna build more GP surgeries? We can’t access the one’s we have. I know that might seem like a solution, but where are they getting the money?

@Gerrygambone Ай бұрын

Whoever believes the Tory promises needs to see a Doctor......Wait they cannot see the Doctor

@ChineseKiwi Ай бұрын

Remember there's a viral old news clip of when Tony Blair was in power and a person complaining to him that they could only book in a GP **too early** vs when they wanted to see them. Meanwhile, under the Tories, a massive brain drain of medical personnel has happened, mainly to the US, Canada and Australia. You would too if you were paid 56% (registered nurse) or 59% (FY1 rank junior doctor) more in Australia. Those are not typos by the way. Fifty-nine percent. There are plenty of videos on KZfaq from UK medical personnel who have gone, detailing all this.

@jackn4853 Ай бұрын

Govt's can always "get the money." A country is not, despite what people are led to believe run like a company or household budget. Think of COVID, or if there was a war, the money just appears.

@ChineseKiwi Ай бұрын

@@jackn4853 it doesn't 'appear', it is via government debt via the issuance of government bonds but otherwise fine, including that government debt is not totally a bad thing, it is how it is used.

@prideofdurham4776 Ай бұрын

@Georgecaplin. My doctor is German.Havent seen him since 2019 , nobody has.Everybody sees the assistants.

@jeromefitzroy Ай бұрын

I would like to see the Lib Dems as the official opposition!

@RealUlrichLeland Ай бұрын

As long as they stay committed to their policy of electoral reform. I would hate if they gave up on proportional representation as soon as they stopped being a minor party.

@py8554 Ай бұрын

It’s my dream of the past 50 years.

@honeycomblord9384 Ай бұрын

Basically a "NDP becoming the second largest party in 2011" moment lol

@zeroyuki92 Ай бұрын

This year seems like the only year where it's actually plausible, go for it UK!

@wumpyjumps Ай бұрын

@@RealUlrichLelandI highly doubt they would as being opposition for one term doesn't mean staying as one. Last time they gave up on their principles they lost 2/3 of their voter base so they hopefully learned something from that. Also, PR is a great attack to use throughout the parliament.

@BIGDZ8346 Ай бұрын

I think one thing that is absolutely KEY to consider is that Labour's Polling is not that impressive. They are polling as you said in the mid 40s pretty similar when compared to say 2017 election where they done well but didn't manage to overtake the Conservatives. And that's because it's not that voting intentions for Labour have massively increased its that they have massively decreased for the Conservatives.

@SlowhandGreg Ай бұрын

Your analysis is incorrect according to the larger polls Labour have become more efficient in their vote share Corbyn could never win because his vote share was too spread out as was shown in 2017 where he lost by 52 seats and even more in 2019 where Labour took a gubbing What Starmer has achieved is by loosing votes on the left but gaining more in the centre has created a very efficient vote distribution. and This is why the Tories and Reform will eat themselves alive as their vote share like Corbyn's is evenly spread

@a.demifemiflapo5795 Ай бұрын

Yes, it's more to do with how far the Tories have plummeted 📉📉

@horsethief822 Ай бұрын

I think there's a collective understanding that labour are not a desirable alternative, but there's no other options. I was planning to vote labour until I saw how weak Starmer's message actually was. The guy just expects to coast to victory on anti-tory sentiment and I think that's a signal that they'll be no different. I actually gritted my teeth and looked at reforms manifesto and I now cannot justify voting for anybody else. I think it's a shame they focus on immigration as such a core issue because it puts a lot of people off, but their actual fiscal policy and commitments to everyday citizens are great. The tax burden will be greatly reduced for regular earners and completely eliminated for those on low incomes (20k and below pa) as well as all NHS workers. How people don't see this as a good thing blows my mind and really showcases the power of the media IMO.

@arandombard1197 Ай бұрын

Yeah, it's more like the Tories have destroyed themselves than it is labour generating any enthusiasm or support.

@James-mb3je Ай бұрын

@@horsethief822they say they will lower the tax burden on earners but don't offer any replacement income. Like taxing wealth and unearned income. So it's just more truss IEA nonsense, about tax cuts leading to growth with the promise of cuts to spending as required. We have seen where this leads, voting reform seems reckless to me.

@blackroseangel123 Ай бұрын

I'm very interested to see how uncle Nigel will affect the Tory vote. The only seats the conservatives will hold will be but such a small margin so even 1000 votes to reform could swing the results

@SlowhandGreg Ай бұрын

from the larger polls it's showing a fairly even distribution for the Conservatives and Reform in England with a few core Toryland seats, this is the worst possible scenario for both parties given the fact that Starmer has gone for a strategy which optimizes the Labour vote.

@douglasstewart3889 Ай бұрын

Let’s be clear - until Trump was convicted Farage was going to the states to grift. Now he’s changed his mind and is staying here to grift. Tedious little man, but clever enough to seduce the poorly educated and the spiteful.

@silvershocknicktail6638 Ай бұрын

Farage has never won a domestic election, ever. We only know his name because UK media refuses to stop saying it, or putting his turning, lying, useless fascist mug on TV.

@jaye20 Ай бұрын

Uncle Nigel? I didn't think the character of Nigel could not get any creepier until you called him uncle 😅

@chrishekman6179 Ай бұрын

Couldnt happen to a better group of people

@15jorada Ай бұрын

I was going to say the same thing. I'm from the US but from what I can see, Tories have absolutely ruined the country for anyone younger than 65

@nickwoodward819 Ай бұрын

Yes it could. Reform.

@volk4523 Ай бұрын

@@nickwoodward819 Tories are pretty bad because they actually have seats. Transphobes? AFUERA!

@aaronhpa Ай бұрын

Sunak tried to be Pedro Sanchez, but he hasn't got the sheer luck Pedro has.

@jochen9367 Ай бұрын

Also his situation is totally different, Pedro had won an election in 2019, Sunak never and although he was polling behind it was about 5 t 6 points of difference not 20 to 25

@jeromefitzroy Ай бұрын

Pedro Sanchez is hot, Sunak is not.

@2Links Ай бұрын

That or he was ready to go and he might as well call the election rather than be blamed for dragging it out to an even worse economy.

@juanfranciscovillarroelthu6876 Ай бұрын

Pedro is Also a cleaver political operative. Sunak could not get himself out of a paper bag

@ElysiumCreator Ай бұрын

@@jeromefitzroythis guy understands politics better then anyone

@mf10w Ай бұрын

Can you include the Greens next poll video? They consistently poll at 5%, have an MP in Parliament, and have 90 times more councillors than Reform in England & Wales. After local election results 2024: Green - 181 councillors, Reform UK - 2 councillors.

@caboosealmighty3735 Ай бұрын

And will hopefully getting a second MP this time.

@HuplesCat Ай бұрын

The ignoring of green is tragic. I assume people want oil adsense revenue? 😢

@silvershocknicktail6638 Ай бұрын

No no no, UK media isn't allowed to ever mention or acknowledge left wing parties, only mock them as silly and irrelevant. Massive increase in left wing support in local elections? Let's talk endlessly about Refash UK every waking second.

@ThatTallGuy0 Ай бұрын

What’s the point 😂😂

@r9kv753 Ай бұрын

No one realistic wants the greens. They are idolistic with no real plans.

@e79905 Ай бұрын

Guys, pizza graphs are bad for comparisons, even worse when you display them in separate slides.

@blackjacktrial Ай бұрын

Whilst I'd prefer box and whisker projections of vote share and seats (and really prefer overlayed distribution graphs) it's probably easier for a lay person to understand a share of vote or seats as part of a single whole (so area based graphs). What would you propose as an easily comprehended alternative for vote share (a bar graph has similar issues, and an area graph has all of them, whilst the others are difficult for everyone to immediately grok.)

@jonsmith5058 Ай бұрын

Pizza graph…? Do you mean a pie chart?

@aldrane7484 Ай бұрын

@@jonsmith5058Tell me about it. Some right imbeciles in these comments lately.

@Dangonyon Ай бұрын

Lmao what the fuck is a pizza graph 😂

@allenkennedy99 Ай бұрын

Pizza graphs are far inferior to chocolate bar graphs

@andybrice2711 Ай бұрын

Sorry, but this line of _"I would push the nuclear button if required."_ is just not emphatic enough for me. I want a candidate who is committed to press the nuclear button whether it's required or not, just out of curiosity.

@ramstrong1961 Ай бұрын

Obviously many people are not actually voting for Labour but against the Tories

@a.demifemiflapo5795 Ай бұрын

Absolutely. Anyone but the Tories

@superhumantrueman Ай бұрын

Not according to the Redfield and Wilton poll released yesterday. Poll results were "63% voting for Starmer, 35% voting against Sunak"

@EvanJGMegson Ай бұрын

That’s why I’m voting reform

@superhumantrueman Ай бұрын

@@EvanJGMegson How do you feel about Reforms support for private healthcare? Not many working people can afford to go private on top of everything else.

@Speedkam Ай бұрын

@EvanJGMegson thanks. Thats the best way to put labour in power 💪💪💪

@TheHellishOtherTimeliney-gs8so Ай бұрын

FIRST! Also, the Tories are going to face a collapse with a way they conduct themselves, and it's abhorrent.

@yunusgokcen174 Ай бұрын

Tory party have no real policies, no plan to change.

@slaygal9012 Ай бұрын

Count Binface Episode When?

@tomarmstrong1297 Ай бұрын

Don't discount the possibility that the Conservative campaign didn't account for this eventuality and will have some mud to sling Nigel's way now.

@_mcck Ай бұрын

why didn't they include the greens in there polling reaserch?

@threecards333 Ай бұрын

The polls seem to include greens but TLDR did not.

@_mcck Ай бұрын

@@threecards333 😞

@exercisethemind Ай бұрын

@@threecards333 it's interesting how so many "news" sources exclude as much information as they provide these days, isn't it?

@Conservator. Ай бұрын

The FPTP system is outrageously undemocratic imo. The LibDems, Greens (and yes also Reform) should be represented proportionately in parliament. I detest Reform (with a passion) but I do feel that that their supporters should have a voice in parliament. Greetings from the Netherlands 🇳🇱 (We’re on the other end on the proportional representation spectrum which I prefer but it isn’t flawless either).

@Minimmalmythicist Ай бұрын

I agree, proportional representation is best. And if the Netherlands had First past the post, then Geert Wilders may well get a majority. People who think it´s a block against extremism are kidding themselves. In fact we´ve had a similar far right takeover in the UK, the difference is that they´ve taken over one of the mainstream parties, namely the Tories.

@Conservator. Ай бұрын

@@Minimmalmythicist Exactly.

@thethreerailwayengines825 Ай бұрын

Based on the MRP, poll, it's likely that if the Lib Dems were to combine with the SNP/Greens/Plaid, they could very easily have more seats than the Tories. So, is it possible for there to be a coalition opposition? As in, rather than a coalition government, the parties form a coalition in opposition, thus reducing the Tories to the third party and not even the opposition

@barristophilliesiii5863 Ай бұрын

Good video. Why aren't the greens featured anywhere?

@loganullman-campbell5017 Ай бұрын

What colour would you like your Tory? Red or Blue?

@AraBalaji Ай бұрын

Do a vid on if scotland will flip red or not

@LarfOutLoud Ай бұрын

love these guys videos, posting consisntly

@LM_Oreiller Ай бұрын

love this

@2Links Ай бұрын

Shame that a Labour landslide happens when Labour is at its worst - only because they've been far outdone by the Conservatives.

@boas7742 Ай бұрын

Labour is the least left they have been in years this is the best time for a labour government

@Hardcore_Remixer Ай бұрын

@@boas7742 Do you mean socially left or economically left? Because economical right means less government intervention and more freedom to the businesses while social right is towards the traditional family, placing the country first and, more extremely but currently necesary, deporting the illegal immigrants wether they have UK passports or not (just like AfD proposes to do in Germany with the illegal immigrants who have obtained German passports).

@paulgibbon5991 Ай бұрын

@@Hardcore_Remixer "towards the traditional family". Come on now, say what you really mean. Only question is, is your answer going to be homophobic or misogynist?

@Hardcore_Remixer Ай бұрын

@@paulgibbon5991 Misogynist would be too conservative even for me. No, I'm not an adept of the Islam. Homophobic, and proud of it.

@boas7742 Ай бұрын

@@Hardcore_Remixer mostly economical currently starmer is mostly keeping the more extreme left wing parts of the party at bay compared to previous labour governments such as in 1935,1983 and 2019 were labour all but advocated nationalising industries and pushed for essentially turning a capitalist system into a borderline socialist one funnily enough these years are also the years in which labour suffered there most devastating defeats

@sherpafan033 Ай бұрын

This video is already seriously outdated considering Farage’s announcement last night

@maritaschweizer1117 Ай бұрын

Why? Does anybody listen to this Clown?

@Lando-kx6so Ай бұрын

Labour will still win a massive majority, reform isn't getting any seats & the right wing vote will be even more split bringing the tories lower

@soundscape26 Ай бұрын

What does that change in the overall picture?

@gleebo9519 Ай бұрын

@@soundscape26 The Conservatives will poll even lower now, and reform could become the official opposition

@soundscape26 Ай бұрын

@@gleebo9519 Without MP's?

@smole321 Ай бұрын

They are just targeting the old people who don't ever leave the house and believe if they step out of the door an immigrant will mug them

@MazzaEliLi7406 Ай бұрын

Thank you.

@captainbuggernut9565 Ай бұрын

Large majorities tend to be bad news. Whether it's tory or Labour. A smaller majority keeps them honest. If Labour do get a huge majority you know we will get every bit of daft legislation they can think up. Im reminded of their attempts last time round to prosecute people who watch pirated movies and ID cards as well.

@paulgibbon5991 Ай бұрын

You seem confused. ID cards were the Tories, in an early experiment with Trumpite-style voter suppression.

@0w784g Ай бұрын

Their invasions of Sierra Leone, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan stand out for me 😂.

@boyz9177 Ай бұрын

@@0w784g SL and Kosovo ??????? One stopped rebels toppeling a democratically elected government and one stopped a genocide of kosovar albanians.

@_jpg Ай бұрын

But...pirating movies is illegal and the people, who worked in them/provide them to the public lose money. How is persecuting pirates a bad thing?

@KungFuWizardOfJesus Ай бұрын

@@_jpg Must you bootlick big corporations anymore? They can live on a few million dollars less I say.

@a.demifemiflapo5795 Ай бұрын

Remember Richie lost to Truss before 🤣

@svresh Ай бұрын

It's nice to see their own agenda finally come back to bite them in the arse, and in such spectacular fashion.

@edwardspence5361 Ай бұрын

Why weren't the green party mentioned at all? I believe they're polling around 5%

@windwaker0rules Ай бұрын

TLDR: the financial review is great isn't it a fantastic newspaper, not bias and not full of hacks at all, we have staff that worked their.

@badabingbadaboomboom Ай бұрын

I am voting Green - I will NOT support genocide

@silvershocknicktail6638 Ай бұрын

@@Rampton8810.... No?

@badabingbadaboomboom Ай бұрын

@@Rampton8810 Never heard of that mate and nothing on their website, just checked. Can you explain and your sources?

@johnpotts8308 Ай бұрын

I cannot understand Tory strategy here. Leaving aside whether you agree with it or not, surely if the parties to your left have about 60% of support from the electorate and parties to your right have about 10% of the electorate, you move towards the 60% not the 10%?

@tubey84 Ай бұрын

Labour stymied them with the reforms under Starmer moving them to the centre ground. The Tories, embroiled in controversy and obsessed with Brexit, veered evermore right and vacated the centre ground entirely. The UK as a whole is centre-right, but it doesn't matter what the Tories do now; people simply hate them, think they're incompetent and deserve the pummelling coming their way. Their only hope for the next election after this one is Starmer gets embroiled in infighting and Labour moves to the left and Reform implode, allowing the Tories back to the centre right organically; otherwise I can honestly see Reform as a hard right main opposition in a few years time as the Tories have no ground to fight on if Labour stay in the centre.

@jeromefitzroy Ай бұрын

Conservative math.

@GeorgiawithaG Ай бұрын

Can't go left when half your MPs will jump further right out of spite. Seems like they have become their own worst enemies.

@georgechristoforou991 Ай бұрын

Tory strategy is fill yer pockets while you can

@Hardcore_Remixer Ай бұрын

The thing is that they are losing most of their votes to right wing parties such as the Lib-Dems and specially to Reform. Besides, they are supposed to be a conservative party with conservative ideals. Now they are barely promissing what they should have been doing since a long time ago, but it's too late. And, as already mentioned above by @GeorgiawithaG, going left just to get votes may end up splitting the Tories in a second left wing party (like Labour) and bunch of nuances of right wing groups which would migrate to the Lib-Dems and Reform. Political parties aren't meant to copy one another's homework, but to actually represent a set of ideas the people can vote for by voting for the party. It's just the the Tories have too much diversity in their party and this leads to losing votes in favor of the more decided parties.

@dav3bassman Ай бұрын

Do a video on next month's Bohemian Grove :')

@aidanderby5803 Ай бұрын

wasn't there also a yougov MRP poll very recently?

@RandoTheRando Ай бұрын

Ed Davey sounds like a chill lad

@TheAllRounderMemes Ай бұрын

based ed davey

@oscarmike3482 Ай бұрын

He's worked out the less the Lib Dems campaign, the more people like them

@Nudelreaktor Ай бұрын

Did I understand that correctly, that a Party with 45% of votes can get a 2/3 majority in parliament?

@wizzyno1566 Ай бұрын

Yes. Easily.

@wizzyno1566 Ай бұрын

Theoretically a party with 40% of the votes could get 100% of the seats.

@cromusician6153 Ай бұрын

@@wizzyno1566How? Like, I genuinely don't understand their voting system. How do LibDems get MPs and Reform don't? How will Labour have a 2/3rd majority?

@Nudelreaktor Ай бұрын

That doesn't sound like a fair system

@Pyritie Ай бұрын

@@cromusician6153 lib dems focus on a few areas, reform is spread out

@willemvanriet7160 Ай бұрын

"Usefully" LOL

@nothing0062 Ай бұрын

Where are these polls taken? I've never seen one, or been asked to complete one.

@jamestilley5812 Ай бұрын

Exactly, polls are bias because they only include people that sign up to take part in polls are included. I have never been asked my opinion for a poll.

@douglasrouxel1761 Ай бұрын

Excluding the Green Party, tut tut - you need to show everyone now we are in the short campaign, or you will get in trouble.

@BackseatGamingJesus Ай бұрын

Yes, angering the Greens is dangerous, because they're full of Islamic extremists nowadays.

@0w784g Ай бұрын

They won't, they are not beholden to any election rules. Their audience is young people, they are only interested in engagement. Its why the only ever put out videos focussing on the Tories. The channel is a joke.

@MikeyPFilm Ай бұрын

GREEN PARTY? Am I going insane why are they being completely ignored

@SirGusto Ай бұрын

Cause noone votes for them so it’s inconsequential

@Kni0002 Ай бұрын

the party that votes down solar farms and wind turbines, ironic

@cuddlysoftcat9267 Ай бұрын

@@SirGusto they have more actual MPs than Reform, yet everyone talks about Reform! It's yet another example of the media's 'unbiased reporting' leaving out the true left wing of politics

@mf10w Ай бұрын

After local election results 2024: Green - 181 councillors, Reform UK - 2 councillors.

@Pyritie Ай бұрын

@@cuddlysoftcat9267 it's because there's not really much to talk about with the greens, same as lib dems, they're consistent

@itskdog Ай бұрын

There's a YpuGov MRP poll now as well

@alishashah7801 Ай бұрын

Please can you do a video explaining proportional voting! I’d love to understand more and how it would work in the UK. Thanks!!x

@DeathInTheSnow Ай бұрын

Clacton has the chance to do the funniest thing ever by voting for *_Jovan Owusu-Nepaul_* in huge droves on the fourth of July. [Edit] I seem to have upset the Tory and Reform voters with this comment. *Good.* Keep liking this comment to upset them more.

@Me-ui1zy Ай бұрын

Lab and Lib Dems should really be working together a little bit in seats with major Tory candidates. Like if they get behind one person in Richmond, then Sunak is out. Leave both parties on the ballot, but encourage one parties supporters to switch. Same thing could happen all over, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and of course Clacton

@clmclmn21 Ай бұрын

That wouldn’t be funny. It would just be boring and putting yet another nameless and faceless MP on the backbenches that will in all probability do NOTHING for the people of Clacton. I find it hard that people actually want Labour to win. Maybe you are too young to remember 1997 - 2010, not that the last 14 years have been any better.

@michaelfarrow5817 Ай бұрын

@@clmclmn21 New Labour seems like halcyon days compared to now. Tory Sleaze in the 90s seems like halcyon days compared to now.

@herbivorethecarnivore8447 Ай бұрын

Basing your support and ideals on upsetting people isn't exactly a good image

@Santisima_Trinidad Ай бұрын

@@herbivorethecarnivore8447 it's exactly an amazing image.

@l.j.turner185 Ай бұрын

Na na naaa na, Na na naaa na, Hey hey heyy, Goodbye 👋

@SuperSmashDolls Ай бұрын

4:03 "Labour is the party of business" is weirdly funny to me.

@prideofdurham4776 Ай бұрын

"But Grant , Dom , our plan is working , isn't it? Grant....Dom......?"

@KonyCurrentYear Ай бұрын

ZERO SEATS

@KaitlynFedrick Ай бұрын

🎶 things can only get worse 🎶

@KrustyKrabPizza22 Ай бұрын

You knew it was coming the second lizz truss worked her magic

@mattpreece6106 Ай бұрын

I mean tbh if you are small c conservative you may as well vote for Reform if you can. And if you are one of the few that think Brexit was a great idea. If you think it was a bad idea then you should probably vote to get rid of those parties tactically. Which is crazy. No matter who you are its better to not vote Tory.

@CallumRSU30 Ай бұрын

But things can only get better?! That’s what the song says!

@kygo Ай бұрын

If only Rishi did some of the things he said he would whilst you know, he was in charge of the country (like he still is now!). Only a fool would believe a single thing that comes out of his mouth.

@barbthegreat586 Ай бұрын

If only the Tories had overwhelming majority for like last 5 years, so they'd have been able to do all those things.

@kygo Ай бұрын

@@barbthegreat586 Yeah, I don't understand why anyone would vote Torries, they've had so long on power and ruined so much.

@0w784g Ай бұрын

Why do you believe any politician? Theyre not obliged to tell the truth you know...

@TheRealEtaoinShrdlu Ай бұрын

ZERO SEATS!!!

@herbivorethecarnivore8447 Ай бұрын

So do you just run around screaming that on every video?

@anteep4900 Ай бұрын

@@herbivorethecarnivore8447 ZERO SEATS!!!

@caboosealmighty3735 Ай бұрын

Net zero.

@herbivorethecarnivore8447 Ай бұрын

@@anteep4900 Ooga booga grunga goo

@Steviebond2 Ай бұрын

One month to polling day and right now, I would take every single seat projection with a bit of salt, as none of them will ever factor in tactical voting, which will be a crucial factor this time around.

@jimiwills Ай бұрын

There's an election campaign? First I've heard of it 😂

@Muppetkeeper Ай бұрын

Reform UK technically is a BUSINESS, not a political party.

@johnwilletts3984 Ай бұрын

Remember right wingers:- If you fail to vote for Reform you may let a Tory back in.

@francishandscomb8108 Ай бұрын

Personal I say get rid of both the main party’s eles it will just be roundabouts

@noonecaresaboutgoogle3219 Ай бұрын

This is just firing the captain when the ship has already hit the iceberg. The damage is done.

@felixnimo Ай бұрын

Things can only get worse 😬💀

@maszlagma Ай бұрын

I mean, not that ReformUK would be any better than the Tories...

@yunusgokcen174 Ай бұрын

If ReformUK are against aid for Ukraine than no.

@TheBooban Ай бұрын

Why not? But nobody can manage the UK. Labour never done any good either. Watch them come to power. Do nothing.

@captainvanisher988 Ай бұрын

@@yunusgokcen174 Ukraine is losing, even after all the aid. No matter how much you want EU to fund them, unless we send our own armies Ukraine won't win anything.

@Pyriold Ай бұрын

@@captainvanisher988 I don't think they are losing, but winning is unlikely too at the moment. Unfortunately i think this war will go on for a long time.

@captainvanisher988 Ай бұрын

@@Pyriold then you clearly haven't been following up. The Eastern front is crumbling on multiple places, they have a huge shortage of manpower, so much so that 2000 reserves managed to push and capture villages in the Northern front. Russia has many more years that they can fight this war, Ukraine doesn't. It has been depopulated to no avail, it has sold off half of the country's land to fight a war that they were never going to win. Sadly another war caused by the incompetence and corruption of the Us government. But it was bound to happen with how corrupt and tied to the Us Ukraine had gone. It was inevitable, unless the Us backed out which was never going to happen. Now Ukrainian men are dying whilst their girlfriends are clubbing and selling their bodies in Europe because of 1 incompetent corrupt leader. Tell me what has Ukraine gained other than becoming a region for NATO proxy war and economic growth for arms manufacturers?

@jack504 Ай бұрын

Labour lead with lib Dems as main opposition would be a winner Canada 1993 shows it can happen with fptp Tory damage needs to be punished

@disasterarea9341 Ай бұрын

does seem a bit of a limitation even with MRP polls though with regards to localised support (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Northern Ireland, and also Green target seats). that's local factors affecting a solid 10% or so of the seats that are up. and it doesnt really answer interesting questions if you are supporting any party other than labour/tories/lib dems

@everest9707 Ай бұрын

Vote for Reform UK Join us - see the growth in Reform support in the polls!

@simondlatham5939 Ай бұрын

This video is way out of date given Farage has returned. Maybe redo this video at the end of the week

@soundscape26 Ай бұрын

That doesn't change much to the overall picture, they can put that in the TLDR Daily video later today.

@qubex Ай бұрын

Calling this election at this moment in time is a truly baffling decision.

@chameleonedm Ай бұрын

It is extremely clear that we are heading for a Labour majority

@brendenwright7957 Ай бұрын

I'm curious on how further the vote will divide for the right, now that Nigel Farage announced he's running again, and is back in his former position as leader of Reform UK.

@dvosburg1966 Ай бұрын

"When the fall is all there is, it matters".

@decoyfox Ай бұрын

Farage just hammered the final nail in the Tory coffin

@revolutionuk Ай бұрын

The Tories were toast anyway, they themselves sealed their own fate.

@jona826 Ай бұрын

People who were planning to stay at home are now saying they will vote for Reform.

@superhumantrueman Ай бұрын

What people? There haven't been any polls since yesterdays announcement.

@soundscape26 Ай бұрын

Who?

@superhumantrueman Ай бұрын

@@soundscape26 They won't answer, because they made it up.

@sh4rkface0 Ай бұрын

2:32 party politics aside, it is genuinely insane that a party with up to 12% popular support could gain ZERO seats in parliament. FPTP really is weird

@jameslewis2635 Ай бұрын

Win or lose, it's good to see that at least Ed Davey is having fun and not taking himself too seriously.

@bullbrissot Ай бұрын

vote lib dem dont vote refrom there are the one that got us in this bertix mess in the first place lest we forget

@hooting-ton5215 Ай бұрын

This is the one election where "Labour is guaranteed to win" has filled me with so much dread

@yunusgokcen174 Ай бұрын

Get used to it. The UK will rejoin the EU once this happens

@Tux00 Ай бұрын

If Labour win this time there may be not another election for years and years, as the leftist fascists take over.

@BESTGINGEREU Ай бұрын

Why would it fill you with dread?

@BESTGINGEREU Ай бұрын

@@yunusgokcen174doubtful, that'd be suicide for the labour party

@soundscape26 Ай бұрын

No need.

@Sam20001 Ай бұрын

bruh the calendar at 0:15 says the itv debate is tomorrow but its today

@TheGamersState Ай бұрын

Has Starmer made any comment on the benefits reform? As far as I know he's not said anything on what Sunak plans to do with the recent controversy on disabled people.

@paulhumphreys919 Ай бұрын

Britain needs reform!

@ianhopping105 Ай бұрын

But not Reform PLC.

@robertlockwood3540 Ай бұрын

Just imagine Nigel Farage stood at the Ballot Box in Parliament on the opposition benches of the house How interesting would that make PMQ's?

@jackn4853 Ай бұрын

Too much like work for Farage.

@TR-wg9rk Ай бұрын

Given that Reform are likely to only have just 1 or 2 MPs, Farage wouldn’t be at the dispatch box and wouldn’t get an automatic right to ask questions. He’ll only get called at PMQs once every few months (at best).

@robertlockwood3540 Ай бұрын

@@TR-wg9rk I know that I’m not stupid. Just relishing what could be. Kier (Barney Rubble) wouldn’t stand a chance

@lkerr11 Ай бұрын

Please can you do a video about polling and vote share in Scotland and Northern Ireland? No matter what the results should be very interesting and significant this year

@rphb5870 Ай бұрын

well it will be big if reform gets bigger then tori. but what is truly needed for UK, is to get proportional representation. I have a simply suggestion. Double the member of parliament., let every constituency stay as is, but add just as many new ones to be rewarded based on the percentage voted on. That way a party can get 30% of the seats in the house without winning a single constituency

@alansmithee419 Ай бұрын

I'm slightly confused. Do you mean that each constituency would have a local representative elected for by the people of the constituency, and then proportional representation would decide the members of the house of commons? Or would both proportional representation and local constituency elections contribute to a house of commons that is twice the size, producing a sort of "compromise" between proportional representation and FPTP?

@jakel8627 Ай бұрын

🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️ 🔶️LIB DEM🔶️

@0u73rh34v3n Ай бұрын

First tho

@TrevorSturman Ай бұрын

After the election, Labour "We're going to need bigger benches"

@JN-om6rw Ай бұрын

And what's going to happen to the influence of the jewish lobby

@JJ-te2pi Ай бұрын

You mean the Muslim lobby....

@AlexJones-og6rg Ай бұрын

Vote Reform

@silvershocknicktail6638 Ай бұрын

Piss off, Fashy McSerialnumber

@Ivytheherbert Ай бұрын

This is the rather unsurprising answer to "What happens when a political party desperately clings to power for years, and abandons all coherent policy other than being cruel?"

@BSJinx Ай бұрын

Honestly, this election is reminiscent of the Tiny Toons episode "The Acme Bowl": "Are we gonna win?" "NO!!!!!" "Are we gonna lose?" "YEAH!!!!!!" "Are we gonna lose BIG?" "YEAH!!!!!" "How big?" "REAL BIG!!!!!" "Are we gonna get creamed?" "WE'RE GONNA BE ANNIHILATED!!!!!"

@Tux00 Ай бұрын

Voting Reform

@captainshakesbeard2453 Ай бұрын

Gonna vote Reform

@chameleonedm Ай бұрын

Ah yeah cause Brexit went so great didn't it

@AshWeststar Ай бұрын

@@chameleonedm You seem to have forgotten that Corbyn was also an advocate of brexit. It's clear either way that the Torys didn't do a good job of it or really much else.

@EvanJGMegson Ай бұрын

Me too

@chameleonedm Ай бұрын

@@AshWeststar How did I forget that? I didn't vote for Corbyn

@captainshakesbeard2453 Ай бұрын

@@chameleonedm You can't blame on Brexit what is the Tories fault