Time wasted you mean You provoked Russia by surrounding it with your weapons. You can't bear to see the largest country in the world with the most natural resources, prosper Ukraine/ Zelensky is your puppet All success to President Putin his people and growing # of allies Down with western imperialism hegemony deception hypocrisy double standards bullying and unethical sanctions You can fool some people some of the time but NOT all people all of the time

The armistice would have stopped the fighting at a time when Russia had captured several Ukrainian oblasts but hadn't had the time to consolidate the wins. The armistice was absolutely in their interest at the time since it would have given them time to harden their defense.

I agree. There is no way Russia would accede to one now, let alone in past months/years.

@@hugo2964 Armistice in the fall of 2022 wouldn’t make any sense to Putin because it would have been seen - and correctly so - as a defeat for Russia, as an utter failure to complete what was launched on February 24, 2022. In fact Putin ceased all serious offensive operations in Ukraine in the fall of 2022 and, while hostilities continued, Russia de facto stopped pursuing territorial advancement in Ukraine and concentrated on defensive preparations. At the same time Moscow continued to subject the entire territory of Ukraine to substantial regular missile strikes thus maintaining some offensive pressure as well. Armistice would have disabled that capability on Russia’s part. Basically, Putin understood back in early March 2022 that the initial plan of the SMO had failed. He needed to recalibrate the entire enterprise - on the one hand, he needed to show to the domestic population and to his international sympathizers in the developing world that he was intent on prosecuting this war all the way to victory (whatever that means); on the other hand, he needed to minimize fighting and control escalation in order to allow Russia to dig in and transform the war into a defensive posture. He managed to achieve these goals WITHOUT a formal armistice.

@@BuddyLee23 Formal armistice is not in Russia’s interest so far because it undermines Putin’s main instrument in this war - to maintain a mixture of defensive power AND offensive intentions and pressure. We clearly see since at least the fall of 2022 that Putin is not particularly interested in making significant territorial gains in Ukraine. But he is interested in making Ukraine over-exert itself in a war effort. And he is interested in exerting pressure on the West through Ukraine. A formal armistice would have made this impossible.

​@@Yasen99the greatest weakness of analyzing the Ukrainian war is that it never made sense. In 2014 they got Crimea, they got a Ukraine that wouldn't join NATO, they got a Ukraine that wouldn't join the EU. At no point was this war in Russia's interest. If your theoretical network, of grand strategic interests, can't describe the start of the war, then why do you think it would be particularly useful predicting the end?

If he loses power, what can happen is that someone even more radical and extreme takes over.

I think most observers think that most Russians & most of the Russian policy thinkers/actors are as, or more alarmed by the eastward progression of NATO and its missiles. It's true that Putin is a dictator, but he has been consistently warning the West since ~2004 that Georgia/Ukraine will Not join NATO.

The fact was, that no one in the West was ready to put their signature on the same document as Putin, that was the whole problem.

@@john.8805 That reality exists solely because Putin's signature has been rendered worthless by his own decision to break a litany of agreements on sovereignty and territory at issue in this war of conquest.

Why then did Milley "break charakter"? Something must have happened we are not supposed to know.

@@john.8805 No signature of the West was needed for Ukraine to make peace.

If you ignore the actual deal that has been presented in camera and the multiple diplomats from multiple countries that witnessed the document being signed and finally ignore how the Ukrainian that signed it was summarily executed by Ukraine shortly afterwards, yeah.

I have to say I like his public speaking engagements and tune in when I can, as well as having read a couple of his books. Still I think I also learned a lot by reading honest criticism of his work. He doesn't recognize other theoretical frameworks, he doesn't fully seem to accept that some people really believed in communism for example. That's not the best for a Stalin biographer. I also find that he does repeat jokes, which we all do I guess. But his jokes are either not funny to me, or I don't get them.

True, does he really believe US diplomacy is a way out of WWIII? If so we are fucked.

​@@jtothecc2421thats not what he said. Je was talking about use of diplomacy as part of a bigger strategy that uses projection of force as well, a perfect dynamic blend, using diplomacy as a tool when appropriate and useful

@@dmitryshusterman9494 yes I heard that, but it's still the case the US is incapable of any sort of diplomacy. I mean just look at the failure of the recent Swiss peace summit.

@@jtothecc2421 what would you call success for that summit. Did you prefer us strongarm Ukraine into giving up their territory in the name of peace?

Agreed. Putin will be stopped by force, nothing else. Scaring him with the threat of a counter offensive may or may not have worked but it would be a gamble.

Based on what? Assertion without evidence=0

@@casteretpollux well hard conclusive evidence will probably forever be impossible to find. But judging from the past 25(!) years of behaviour from Putin it's also pretty hard to make the opposite case.

CNN told him so ​@@casteretpollux

Russia had been proposing peace negotiation every fucking month. It's Zelesnky that outlawed such. Stop being delusional.

Hi from Pingtung!

Rubbish.

Indeed, with a wholly inadequate quantity of Western armour. A handful of Challenger's? The Abrams not yet in theatre? Simply not enough Leopard 2s and Bradleys. Significant numbers of the latter two were lost, although their quality was proven by the number of Ukrainian crew men who survived to fight another day. To be successful, far greater quantities were needed, plus combat engineering vehicles, and at least a modicum of air support. The West helped set up Ukraine for the summer offensive to fail. I can't help but feel that we are in for a similar failure once the F-16s are in theatre. These are old aircraft, and they will be used under circumstances that the US and it's European allies wouldn't dream of operating under. When was the last time Western air forces were in combat against a peer-level enemy? Excluding Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, we're looking at Korea in the 1950s. (Vietnam doesn't really count, since N Vietnam was not a peer of the US.) The unwarranted hype surrounding the F-16s is liable to be blown asunder once they start operating in theatre in the next few months. And the Western media and Putin's useful idiots will have a field day with the story. All because of the absence of any leadership in the West to provide Ukraine with the quantities of weaponry it needs. It's no wonder Putin believes he is on course for eventual victory.

@@EdwardRLyons Brave Ukraine💙💛 should get all the systems it needs from the collective West. No argument from me.

The defensive lines were poorly built. What surprised everyone were the mines.

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD the budgets for Ukrainian defensive lines were stolen, sure. The russian defensive lines were beutiful in their effectiveness, though.

I didn't notice anything unreasonable. And he's certainly aware of the comprehensive range of conflicts the Ukraine war entails.

"we're getting accused of this so the time but we don't do it!" 🙄🙄🙄 apparently CIA has ceased to exist and operate in China and Russia! nevermind that American "acting in the political sphere" in Ukraine is precisely what precipitated this war. but what can you expect from The Hoover Institution?

All his life

I can’t unhear this shit now lmfao 🤣

It's well known that Joe Pesci is just his stage name as an actor

You want to see Kotkin wipe the floor with John Mearsheimer? What would be the point?

@@MarcosElMalo2 yes

@@MarcosElMalo2to prove JM is an absolute fraud

To clearly demonstrate to the Russian sympathisers that the west is not to blame.

@@MarcosElMalo2probably the other way around

I second this. I would have to review and rewatch what he discussed but I remember hearing a few points which didn't really make sense. One of them being this constant talk of 'russia is winning'. What on earth does he mean by "winning"? It needs to be pointed out that both sides are losing. It also needs to be pointed out that he seems to understand little of attrition pinch points for this war like air defence and artillery. Constant talk of numbers and attrition and how 'russia has more'. Well provided political will keeps up, ukr has the entire West's productive capacity behind it.

If you want logistic….the it’s Ben Hodges !!

@glenn5328 I struggle to find specifics with ben hodges I disagree with but I take issue with his "vibe". I find his vibe to lean a bit too much toward optimism and viewing the ukraine crisis as existential for u.s. Aside from signalling to the world around how reliable the u.s. is S a security partner, unfortunately the ukraine crisis barely matters on a global scale and I find ben to lean towards overplaying the importance of this conflict - it stinks of rabid anti russia sentiment. It's certainly justified anti russia sentiment, I just feel like it may bias his judgement and analysis. He is also rather shallow on detail and specifics.

he isn't bought and paid for therefore bad!

You can't be serious. How much of a clown you must be to refuse the reality on the battlefield

That's all they do. It's diabolic and it's been working for them so far.

The players asked to play the game. They can stop at any time.

Agreed. Putin was no more likely to stop fighting after Ukraine made him look bad than Hitler after Stalingrad or Tojo after Midway. Once leaders and their entourage embark on a military adventure they can’t back down and survive. Saddam Hussein being a notable exception.

Saaskhavilli was stupid for invading South Ossetia, but with Bush finishing his term he rolled the dice and maybe hoped he would get some US support but he read the situation wrong as the Russians were aiding us with Afghanistan and we didn't need more problems. Michael Kofman had a decent piece on the great Georgian blunder but he thinks the Russians lured them in. Whole region is a mess. Numerous ethnic groups in Georgia and most of them hate the Georgians. Should just have a seperate country for each of the different ethnic groups. It was clear in the early 90s with the civil wars that Ossetians, Abkhazians, and Georgians can't live in one country. Was not about protecting Russian citizens though mate (North Ossetia is in Russia), it was protecting the Ossetians (Alans) but in reality while the Ossetians want protection from the Georgians the Russians aid them mainly to keep NATO out of Georgia.

Yes, Kotkin is unscrupulous enough to use these “angry patriots” for short-term gain (destabilizing Putin’s hold on power) and arrogant enough to believe that these people wouldn’t see through it.

Kotkin is also an anti-Putinist.

@@thisoldgoat3927 lol. Huh?

Propagandists not a historian

Did you listen to?

I had the same thought. I think it's important to being realistic in our assessments of the war, and neither be overly optimistic or pessimistic, but I think the professor here was fairly uncharitable.

Bit snobby.

Your criticism is empty

​@@peterruane9220bot

Kotkin, Snyder and a bunch of emigre NPCs are what passes for "Russia specialists" these days. It's a damn shame, given how deep that academic bench once was. It's also terrifying, since these clowns are advising policy makers in a genuine crisis.

Were you not listening?

That causality makes no sense. My girlfriend flip flops on what she wants for dinner, therefore our current hunger levels are best maintained.

And what is your military or state craft experience?

@@davidl.7317 Well, he understands the difference between the barefoot VCs and the world's foremost land power for a start.

​@@stavroshadjiyiannis6283 Well the Russians are wearing sneakers which is a downgrade from boots. Just saying.

How many soldiers do you need to conquer a city of 3 million people?

@@martinbrezina575 well not sure exactly but a rough rule of thumb that made sense before the invasion was Sevastopol, a city of half a million taken by probably a couple thousand Russians. So extrapolating I would say 10.000 Russians seemed reasonable before the Russians realized Ukranian babuschkas were making molotovs instead of surrendering.

@@pierman4858 To occupy Kiev you would have needed at minimum a million troops. Roughly 1 for every 3 civilians. Even that would have been pushing it. With the initial invasion of roughly 170K, I can see where Mearsheimer is coming from. The intelligence failure and subsequent battlefield debacles has forced Russia to alter their strategy.

@@martinbrezina575 Not that many if you think there will be little to no resistance. Russia took all of Crimea with 20-30,000 troops.

@@pierman4858 However, Sevastopol did not prepare for a Russian attack for 8 years with the help of American advisors.

Should lower conscription to age 13 soon.

Russia hasn’t won for 3 years. “Getting wrecked” lol

​@@rickhunter1454 😂😂 do you understand am attritional war ??

@@abdirahmanahmadalifarah926 if you are Russia and need to lead an attrition war against Ukraine you have already lost. Your losses are greater than whatever your possible gains may be.

@@rickhunter1454 😂😂😂 lol, dude Juat google and search the RAND corporation latest article "post war US strategy " On of the points they say is Ukraine should avoid am attritional grinding war 😂😂 ,its not in the US/Ukraine and nato beat interst , Ukraine can't engage an attrational war , by the way You said Russia already lost , then why not end the war , if russia lost just let Ukraine have the rest ,forget the 4 oblast, No nAto membership?? Is that difficult?? And by the way too The mighty US spent 20 years in Afghanistan to be kicked out by Taliban armed with Ak47 and sandals, Not ATACMs and leopard tanks , that's the Might US ??😂😂

Kotkin tells that successful Ukrainian operation in Izium was against rosgvardia and tanks in warehouses. He clearly is out of his mind and didn't follow the situation. One column of rosgvardia trully was destroyed in the February 22, but the whole Izium-Kupyansk-Lyman operation was against regular army in September 22. I stoped watching after this, Kotkin is crazy.

Kotkin seems to exaggerate how weak Russian defense was and how easy it was for Ukrainians. But the broader point that the offensive of the fall of 2022 shaped the expectations for the counter offensive in 2023 stands. However I don't think expectations were generally that high. I remember even my mom doubting if anything could be achieved at all while I was cautiously optimistic.

@@pierman4858 he does not exaggerate, he knows nothing and make assumptions based on false information.

Maybe I remember incorrectly, but I think on some of kotkins other panels and podcasts he has made the distinction clearly that he is not a military guy and generally refused to comment on specifics and operation/tactical points of conjecture. Maybe I'm remembering thr hoover institution panels where H.R. McMaster is a regular contributor and fields those questions. A little disappointed he didnt include the disclaimer here, or refuse to opine on it.

Moskva is the best submarine

Troll!

Anyone at all familiar with Kotkin knows you're talking rubbish.

Lol, The human wave tactics?? You seem to listen Bbc and CNN too much dude ??

This is a war of attrition, and Russia will always win a war of attrition because it is authoritarian in nature so losses mean nothing because there is no free press. Also the west will not support Ukraine indefinitely especially if there’s no end in sight. $500 billion and more territory is lost daily. Are we still going to be talking about this in 3 years when the number is $1 trillion+ on this war?? Of course not, the people in Ukraine and the West will negotiate

@@abdirahmanahmadalifarah926 Have you seen drone footage of Russian frontline attacks? It's literally just rushing a defensive position with mass amounts of men and mechanized material, damn the artillery and drones defending that position. It's the epitome of wave tactics.

@@josephhernandez5386 Yep I watch them form professional jhon mershimer , Scott ritter, Douglas macgregor Not from CNN and BBc propaganda dude

​@@abdirahmanahmadalifarah926 Ritter is a convicted sax offender.

Well Maersheimer has so many biases himself. Can we just say the man talks a lot of nonsense a d therefore we don't like him.

@@pierman4858Saying you don’t like him after the fact because you don’t want to do the intellectual work of refuting his arguments is getting the cart before the horse. We want to start with evidence and arguments and not with conclusions-that’s how science works.

@@caylynmillard76 look you are apparently really taken in by Maersheimer and don't like people criticising him. So listen to the man all you want. I am not going to convince you that Maersheimer has many falacies. I you are really open for discussion as you suggest there are many excellent criticisms online of the man that you can Google easily.

@@pierman4858 take care

​@@pierman4858Name single one fallacy from Mearsheimer?

Princeton and Yale did have a strong Russian/Slavic studies tradition once upon a time. It's all gone now. Literally no serious scholars left in the field. It's terrifying.

@@f.e.dzerzhinsky Donald Kagan was an extraordinary historian.

South Korea and the Philippines were actively rejecting American bases and influence, now they welcome America, bravo Xi.

irak

OMG, you are a genious!

Lol, reddit armchair

😂😂😂 nAfo bot dog

@@abdirahmanahmadalifarah926I am not a bot but a highly skilled agent from Langley

😂🤣 A highly skilled agent 😂 Your badge from a cereal box little boy? 🤣

It was forged from a furnace using vatnik tears. NAFO also provides me with armor against your childish insults.

@@rustyheyman214 Aren’t you a super secret agent Mr Bond, shouldn’t you be riding in a convertible shooting at baddies ?? What are you doing on KZfaq Britain needs you

The US did? I am not sure why you think that. Seems to me Russia had the means, a clear motive, and they were at the scene. But curious to know why you think the US did it.

@@pierman4858 because Russia doesn't have a reason to destroy its own infrastructure? Basically everyone in Europe knows this was an American op even if they are careful enough to blame "rogue Ukrainians" or whatever the State Department is pushing these days.

@@pierman4858 I guess you missed bombing of Dresden then.

Why did Russian riot cops drive to Kiyv?