Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview

Рет қаралды 192,899

Күн бұрын

When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.
The historian Stephen Kotkin joins us to discuss what this means for Russia’s future-and how the United States can be ready for whatever that future holds. Kotkin is the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is the author of the forthcoming book Stalin: Totalitarian Superpower, 1941-1990s, the last in his three-volume biography of the Soviet leader.
Sources:
“The Five Futures of Russia” by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia...
“The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine” by Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrain...
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Пікірлер: 200

@imaginaryenterprises 17 күн бұрын

It's always great to hear Joe Pesci speak geopolitics!

@donaldstewart444 17 күн бұрын

He’ll love that😅

@BlueBaron3339 17 күн бұрын

😂😆🤣

@cristiancea85 16 күн бұрын

I knew that he reminded me somebody, i cant unsee it now

@sergecherevko594 16 күн бұрын

Kotkin talks about how Ukraine rejected peace treaties with Russia. And he never mentioned that Russia always, always breaks any treaty as soon as it sutis Moscow. The recent examples- Chechnya. Beofre that - FInland. Does Kotkin know about this? Of course! Why he ignores this, and pushes this idea about "treaties" with Russia? That's a good question.

@shingnosis 17 күн бұрын

I'm a simple man. I see Kotkin video I click play.

@luskvideoproductions869 15 күн бұрын

Kotkin makes some great points, but the idea of an armistice 2022 that the Russians would actually honor is ridiculous...they violated the Minsk agreement, the Budapest memorandum, etc...they constantly meddle with neighboring countries and their independence. How could we possibly think they would have agreed to anything in Oct.of 2022?

@vredchenko 8 күн бұрын

Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

@chocaliciouz 16 күн бұрын

I really want to see a debate between Kotkin and Mearsheimer

@harrybaulz666 17 күн бұрын

Steve assumes russia would honor a armistice agreement. Ukraine and the baltics and Poland know better

@esakoivuniemi 16 күн бұрын

I totally agree. It seems like Steve doesn't have a real grasp on Russia. Talking about an armistice just sounds naive to me. Russia has never honored a single agreement, ever. Plus, Steve's arguments feel very America-focused. If you ask me, Frank Kagan and Timothy Snyder are probably the best Russia experts in the USA right now.

@jaymacpherson8167 17 күн бұрын

I admire Professor Kotkin’s thinking and analyses. The winning the peace concept is wise. However, the road to winning the peace is sometimes cloaked in shadow. For instance…Arguing a mistake by Ukraine was made in not pursuing an armistice with Russia assumes Russia is trustworthy. Further, an armistice abandons the Ukrainians on the other side of the front line. Russia has been effective at agreeing without acting upon the agreements. I, for one, have no faith Russia would honor the terms of any agreement.

@AJThielmann 17 күн бұрын

Agree

@briancarl5566 17 күн бұрын

Agree with you 100%. I'm a huge fan of Kotkin as well, but he puts too much faith in the Russians honoring any sort of agreement long-term. Their record is bad on this. It wasn't in Ukraine's interest to have the world move on to other things - the Russians would have just sent the tanks back in, after everyone stopped paying attention.

@petergreenwood7731 17 күн бұрын

Russia says it was the west who reneged on Minsk and Istanbul What did Merkel say about the Minsk agreement?

@MG-ye1hu 16 күн бұрын

Agreements are not about trustworthiness but about balance of power. Such agreements only work if keeping them is more beneficial than breaking them by force of power. This is why the Munich agreement in 1938 was meaningless. Nazi Germany was the most powerful player at this time, and could break any agreement as they please, exactly what the US does today. A peace agreement with Russia can work if Nato is the the enforcer. Not because we trust Russia but because Nato is powerful enough to keep Russia in check.

@American-In-Mykolaiv 17 күн бұрын

Kotkin is my favorite historian - he understand Russia and knows what the future holds for Russia, if they continue their"stand alone" policy. Putin is done, it is only a question of time.

@Miloun 17 күн бұрын

Kotkin is a revelation to me. I only discovered him last year. His insight into current politics is unparalleled in both its depth and breadth. Mind blown. (AND he originally studied Czech, which is the language my old home country :D )

@canadianmarauder1923 17 күн бұрын

I could listen to Steven talk all day. Guy is so interesting.

@DavidH-ve4fm 17 күн бұрын

Could listen to Kotkin for hours.

@Saunajallu 17 күн бұрын

And I do!

@peterwhite7428 17 күн бұрын

Stephen Kotkin is a man I would love to meet one day. He is brilliant and humble. I agree with him on everything he says, having spent a lot of time in Russia and Ukraine.

@almiroff6949 17 күн бұрын

It is mentally refreshing to listen to a cogent explaination of a complex issue(s). Thanks.

@tamil.f.3734 17 күн бұрын

Wow! Someone talking sense about Russia and China. What a fresh and intelligent thinking! I salute you Stephen Kotkin!

@HaukeLaging 17 күн бұрын

What would the Ukraine KZfaq world be without Stephen Kotkin... 👏

@user-pd5qz2vt2c 17 күн бұрын

Mr. Kotkin may well be the most insightful person alive on foreign relations. Brilliant podcast. Kudos!

@NyPer920 17 күн бұрын

Always enjoy listening to Prof Kotkin.

@richardhouser508 17 күн бұрын

Like so many people, I love listening to Stephen Kotkin declaiming on current events, politics, world history, and human nature. He is full of insights and surprises! I wish he would run for U. S. President!

@joiedevie3901 16 күн бұрын

Absolutely BRILLIANT! Anyone knowing both Russia and France must find Kotkin's perspicacity in drawing the parallel between the two nations remarkably sublime and piercing. His observations are profound while also leaving one slapping one's own forehead for how obvious they seem--after, of course, he says them. Wish that he could have the White House's ear, whoever resides there, to provide insight into that unique nation. De Tocqueville, like Kotkin, nailed it in his observation about Russia and America and the parallel roles they would play in the world's destiny. Kotkin carries on in that great tradition of analysis and understanding. Thank you, Foreign affairs. Can't wait to read Kotkin's article!

@jeffheiner 17 күн бұрын

Thank you for sharing this excellent analysis! I really enjoyed all your points of view and realism on the Russia situation.

@iancurtis1152 17 күн бұрын

A very balanced commentary on political affairs both present and past. Great to hear.

@listener523 13 күн бұрын

Whilst I appreciate and approve of Kotkin calling for clarity in our foreign policy? We haven't seen clearly stated mission objectives nor exit strategy since the Swartzkopf debriefing in Iraq 1.

@longhaulblue 17 күн бұрын

Excellent. I really enjoyed Prof. Kotkin's insights.

@diilouise 16 күн бұрын

I like Prof Kotkin's take on foreign policy and explaining it. Good questions, too. Thanks from 🇦🇺

@stevenjohns-savage7024 16 күн бұрын

Thanks guys 😊

@jeffreysilverman3633 15 күн бұрын

Outstanding interview with Professor Stephen Kotkin!! He is brilliant, incisive, perceptive and entertaining and this mix of ingredients is rare.

@choudharya1234 17 күн бұрын

Like this guy. good voice

@DJ_Gadfly 17 күн бұрын

Academic Joe Pesci

@donaldstewart444 17 күн бұрын

Kotkin is certainly a wonderful American gift.

@frankshifreen 16 күн бұрын

Great as always love KOTKIN

@Jason-ke1oi 17 күн бұрын

Thank you Mrs Kotkin. Thanks to FA`s staff members.

@BlueBaron3339 16 күн бұрын

Don't call it a podcast. It's an actual *interview.* No point in naming names because everyone has seen true scholars and experts stepped on CONSTANTLY by alleged interviewers. Dan Kurtz-Phelan is different. He not only poses excellent, penetrating questions. He allows people to *answer them* without dilatory interruptions. Podcasts are entertainment. This is better.

@NiPaVou 16 күн бұрын

That's quality content. Thank you so much for this great interview. Mr. Kotkin is an excellent speaker.

@GameWatcher545 17 күн бұрын

Yes! Stephen Kotkin, time to make food and watch

@anthonyduval3191 17 күн бұрын

I love kotkin so much, used to follow him befire the war and hes so relevant right now

@producer2123 17 күн бұрын

Great interview. Foreign Affairs is superb. Even the promo music is elegant. Thank you!

@doitdiddy 15 күн бұрын

Always a pleasure to hear from Steven Kotkin.

@VoidAspect 16 күн бұрын

Excellent insight from Stephen

@VolodymyrFrolov 8 күн бұрын

There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

@augustaj3952 16 күн бұрын

Thank you ☆

@markgemmell3769 2 күн бұрын

Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.

@LearnHistoryS 17 күн бұрын

Kotin might be a good historian, but geopolitics is not his strength. Neverthless, I still appreciate his knowledge in Russian History.

@CyrisAeon 17 күн бұрын

Would love to hear your specific thoughts! What areas did his conclusions feel off base geopolitically?

@mamasonicarchives 14 күн бұрын

No, this is not the way to go. Mr Kotkin is believing that a deal with Russia is possible. That is not so. His whole argument falls on this simple point.

@howardking3601 14 күн бұрын

I've learned a lot from this humble scholar, Kotkin. It's always a pleasure to listen to someone who is a Master of his subject. What clarity! Thanks!

@jmmasedotmicah 16 күн бұрын

Kotkin's insight is always illuminating. more of him for the benefit of all.

@cutcut1980 7 күн бұрын

Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉

@sergiubesliu4168 17 күн бұрын

Mr.Kotkin is marvelous! Thanks Foreign Affairs for this wonderful talk!

@luminyam6145 15 күн бұрын

This is the first time I have listened to this man and already I love him.💖

@nilaychaturvedi5243 14 күн бұрын

Even if one doesn't agree wth everything that Mr Kotkin says one hS to admire his breadth of thought nd the simple fact that he inspires you to think. 👍

@DamBevers 12 күн бұрын

Great talk. I think Mr. Kotkin is missing an important point: You cannot attribute much historical motivations to a people when it’s just one dictator controlling the country. China’s and Russia’s great history is not what drives its government or economy. It’s a dictator and a few collaborators that call all the shots. At the top of their priorities is self preservation and gaining more wealth. They use their peoples’ history as an excuse to make geopolitical moves. This same conflicting of national representation with dictators, more akin to organised crime, has been the downfall of democracies everywhere, and has to stop. The world will not be a safe and healthy place to live until the democracies eradicate dictatorships and enact a global citizen policy, removing passport restrictions and equalising humans of every origin and ethnicity.

@caylynmillard76 17 күн бұрын

Love the Kotkin. He’s like the Yoda of Hoover Inst.

@janazikmundova6794 14 күн бұрын

Prof Kotkin's commitment to clarity is so helpful in today's jungle of ideas about Russia.

@doitatit 10 күн бұрын

Remarkable! Brilliant! Sane! What a fantastic interview. Great question's. Thank you .

@1stAma 14 күн бұрын

I really respect kotkin but it's sad to see how he is repeating Russian talking points about the negotiations in 2022. He's unfortunately also misrepresenting the negotiations. There never was a realistic prospect of peace.

@wseam1 5 күн бұрын

Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.

@l.u.rehuher3714 8 күн бұрын

Insightful interview from FA as always

@jl8217 7 күн бұрын

Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

@martinhuntley5342 7 күн бұрын

Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

@nicholaselliott2484 15 күн бұрын

Leading us out of the wilderness. Love Kotkin!

@Joaodocaminhao0234 14 күн бұрын

Thank you!

@vplatonova 8 күн бұрын

Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???

@mat3714 17 күн бұрын

This is my exact position....stop trying to analyze putin's mind and "real" projects. Just act on what he's doing and telling. Again, another great talk with a great guy.

@RasmusDyhrFrederiksen 16 күн бұрын

What a treat

@John_13_35 15 күн бұрын

Appreciate Kotkins work!

@adriandis 15 күн бұрын

This was fantastic! Thank you

@johnhealy3973 15 күн бұрын

Excellent Thank you so much!!

@stevenjohns-savage7024 2 күн бұрын

I like this mans meanings of words. Great minds 😊

@williammorris584 9 күн бұрын

Superb interview.

@nathanngumi8467 8 күн бұрын

A great interview!

@sven-gunnarappel8320 16 күн бұрын

I'm not so sure that Russia is alone. How will the BRICS countries develop? We may have to start seeing the world with new eyes. What role will the global West have in the future?

@charlesmackey8179 16 күн бұрын

Always educational.

@johnnydawson7675 14 күн бұрын

Thank you, Professor, for letting us know that you are going to wrap up Stalin, Volume Three!

@CharlieNickell 9 күн бұрын

Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!

@treesetc3305 15 күн бұрын

This was an absolutely brilliant and enlightening discussion.

@ruibebiano9015 14 күн бұрын

Awesome interview 👏👏👏

@bunyip7343 12 күн бұрын

Excellent discussion.

@aaron4387 16 күн бұрын

I never get tired of listening to this great mans insightful commentary.

@ChristofferETJ 12 күн бұрын

Interesting perspective. But I disagree with Stephen on the topic of an armastice in Ukraine 2022. Making that agreement would only make sense in a very short-sighted may, akin to corporations chasing their next quarterly without looking at the coming years. I do agree with Stephen later in the interview, when he dismisses appeasement in a conflict between two major powers. Appeasement, I find, should also be held to be untenable in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

@skippy9659 13 күн бұрын

Kotkin is the only one out there putting options forward for public consumption in this manner, it’s appreciated.

@johndewey6358 14 күн бұрын

Excellent review, I agree with most of the analysis❤. I wish the same type of interview could be done with Prof Kotkin about Iran and the future of Iran and its reliance on Russia and China.

@Joaodocaminhao0234 15 күн бұрын

Thank you

@Mr.Zen_73 8 күн бұрын

who knew Joe Pesci was so knowledgeable on Russia? brilliant stuff!

@garydecad6233 9 күн бұрын

Outstanding discussion 4:51

@bentrinker1937 17 күн бұрын

What’s the meme saying about Russian history, Our future is certain but our past is unpredictable?

@ThaFunkster100 12 күн бұрын

Very interesting discussion, subscribed!

@ostevoostevo1592 15 күн бұрын

What an excellent interview. "Cold War is good." I love it!

@jackiebinns6205 14 күн бұрын

Interesting as anything i've heard thus far 🎉🎉

@bernardzsikla5640 17 күн бұрын

My favorite content on KZfaq is anything Stephen Kotkin does, yet I don't agree with one significant point regarding sanctions and their effects. Russia society is paying a cost with Western sanctions. It effects their economy as a whole and it effects every strata of Russian society. It will turn Russia as a technology wasteland at the worse time maybe in history, where western democracies/free market economies are soon to make the jump into the AI age. Ukraine doesn't have to win on the battlefield because Russia as a state and as a people has already lost.

@user-sq5bw2fc4n 17 күн бұрын

And the long term Putin effect: Putin has damaged the trust necessary to have binding agreements of any sort, by burning all of bridges necessary for relations with the west. Even if an negotiated peace is found, it is only a matter of time before Putin will break it. The question then becomes can Russia become a trustworthy partner after Putin? This is one question Stephen dances around. I agree the west needs to express the objectives much more clearly, so that China and passive enablers of Putin wake up and choose not to stand with Putin.

@clancywiggam 17 күн бұрын

I agree. I hope you are right!

@JamesKonzek-xr5zy 6 күн бұрын

I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.

@lanreolaniyan6964 17 күн бұрын

predict what trump might do??? Dammmm 😂😂😂

@hectorestrada3764 14 күн бұрын

Great analysis

@mythosboy 17 күн бұрын

Fantastic: Kotkin is up to his usual Olympian standards. He sketches a more convincing, if provisional, victory of the West than Fukuyama did 30 years ago. Hopeful, but realistic.

@wendykelling7738 16 күн бұрын

Listening to this I got a glimpse of something I hadn't quite seen before - Putin seems obsessed with getting rid of all in the world who do not back him. I couldn't figure before why he seemed unperturbed at people fleeing from Russia but I guess they fit into the category of people he has got rid of? So good to hear Prof Kotkin's calm and wisdom. Thank you for good questions.

@patrickshanley4466 14 күн бұрын

Not as good as kotkins usual. But really looking forward to his THIRD book on Stalin. 👨‍🚒

@kanweiwu7339 14 күн бұрын

Great thoughts on Ukraine.

@Dougohere1 7 күн бұрын

Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

@andybroomfield4041 14 күн бұрын

Brilliant

@The_Texan_American 15 күн бұрын

I loved this

@rocketman1058 17 күн бұрын

it's been my pleasure

@gregtwomey1805 17 күн бұрын

Brilliant! 💙💛

@ashlarblocks 16 күн бұрын

I liked the discussion of the West as an institutional matrix

@ranenbhattacharyya136 15 күн бұрын

Thought Putin has been very amenable to the west even asking to join the European institutions. Only thing Putin felt was offended by USA & nato move to place missiles next to their borders.