What do you think about the line taken by the math nerd? The turn shove is a bit odd for value but with the bet/3bet on flop the hero's hand may have been read face up as a set. If he made that assumption then he knows his jam is putting a set in a really difficult spot.

His explanation for bet, 3-betting AJdd on the flop got more and more confusing. Lol

Bro this is Will from hustlers hiding his identity 100%

I think you missed out on a huge piece of the puzzle in not mentioning when the opponent has a smaller flush not only do we have the full house outs but we also have the flush redraws. It seriously lightens the situations where you said we only have 20%.

I love playing poker at Hugewin casino.

raising flop/calling 3bet spells either a set or a nut flush combo draw/15 outs. Now: V cannot have sets on turn. (a low set does not supposed to shove a flushy board against a heavy duty aggressor!). Therefore: nut flush! Fold and never look back. (10 outs is not going to warranty the 180bb call and 20% equity vs 36% risk).

This is a 100% call, unless villain is a confirmed nit. Hero has 10 outs to the nuts, and possibly flush outs as well. If villain is capable of bluffing at all, hero must call.

I really hate the 3 bet on the flop. The ONLY thing that calls you that's worse than your hand is diamonds or worse sets, the latter of which is just not jamming the turn. Obviously you're never folding turn, especially with a diamond.

I hope your haircut went well

Bluff-3bets on the flop should be hands like A2s, A4s if we have that here. Stuff that blocks the lower sets. Somewhat surprised there was no discussion of checking the flop, potentially aiming to check-raise. This kind of flop tends to get checked a lot, especially multiway. sigh call the turn

If you can deduce that this isn't 44 or 22 (which I would not assume that is true) - then the range of hands you are against is flush draws. Only bluff I see is 5c3c - I doubt that jams when checked to. Seems like it becomes a pot-odds-decision. The call is slightly losing overall, but only if you remove sets from villain range.

Haven’t watched postflop yet. I think the only hands villain can have after calling this nutted flop 3-bet are sets & A3/A5/53 of diamonds.. not much else

The 3 bet of the Villain on the flop makes it so much likely that he made his flash on the turn. I would fold in that case

I really like a small to midsized turn bet here. If he raises you are beat. If he calls you are probably beat but it prevents him from being incentivized to Jam.

Bart’s explanation of the odds of running it twice is surely correct in spirit, but it’s funny that if you are 20% to win, the most common result is actually that you lose both. But you win 1 a lot and sometimes you win all 5 so it approaches 20% equity.

"Blocker, block, blocked, blocker, block". Hero was making it up as he went along.

Might be tougher at 5/10, but 1/2 or 2/5 I’m snap mucking always

I don't think villain blasting with a flush on the turn is at all "suspicious" since you pretty much turned your hand face up on the flop. He wouldn't feel a need to trap. But he could have 3 5 D or 5 6 D which would open 6 more outs for you (not 7 because one would give him a straight flush) which brings it closer to a break even call. I think given villain's aggressive tendencies you have to make the spewy call but it sucks. He could have AA with a diamond or Kings or even QQs with a diamond as well was "weird" hands like pocket pairs and such that just take advantage of your line.

My first thought when villain raised the flop was AXdd, particularly A3dd or A5dd. 44 is certainly possible as well, but that will have at least slow-play frequency. Hero decides to play for blood and 3 bet the flop. I'm not crazy about that play, but he does have the nuts & the SPR is quite deep. On the turn, things obviously get complicated. I don't like the combination of check-calling here. Hero might think he checks a nut flush here, but he never does. Do I think that calling the over-bet jam on turn was terrible? No. But I certainly don't think it's a great play. I highly doubt this is a bluff or over-play very often. After the way the flop action went, it's a bad spot to bluff. As evidenced by hero's inability to laydown. Overall? If you want to bloat the pot on flop, fine. But don't cry about it after. And if you feel like you need to look up your villain, fine. But, if you're any good at hand reading, they'll often turn over exactly what you think they have.

I think Jd in hero’s hand makes it a call since it eliminates quite a few of his flush hands. Like 9j 10j Jq jk aj without jack diamond I fold

Why is this guys voice on fast forward?

flop: do we need to be concerned with balance when facing a live player, in a live game where we'll never get anything remotely close to a meaningful sample? Shouldn't we be focused on exploiting this guy for the max?

If this was slightly lower stakes, I would lean more towards the Villain having a lower set or a very small flush. I agree that this would be an odd line with the Nut flush. This is a tough situation, and I agree with Bart, that it's just a cooler. I think this more than a 50/50 call.

As a losing low stakes player, both hands seem pretty face up after the flop action.

VS most 1/2 or 2/5 opponents, I think shoving the turn on a blank is perfectly reasonable. You're not giving the opponent the right price to call with their combo draws, but that doesn't mean that they'll actually fold.

Two answers bart's question on the turn if that is the 8 of spades you just rip 1.5 X the pot on the turn all in.

Online it’s usually low to mid flush and live it’s often a diamonds x like aa with a d 😮

I don't see any discussion about the odds Hero was giving the villain in a "worst-case" (and actual) combo draw. 12 outs with 2 cards to come is 43% equity. Calling an additional $365 on the flop to win $970 is almost 2:1. Granted, villain only sees 1 card at a time, but if raise needs to be $1400 in theory for both cards, and you want to avoid tough spots with loose players, I think hero needs a minimum raise of $900 and $1000 is better. Maybe it's OK to let the hand be face up in the sense of "I need a lot of protection for my value" and he still might misread your value for KK-QQ (or AJ or 222). So you still get to own his middle and bottom sets and AA/KK spews, and his crying A3dd calls become a mistake (and when they fill up you lose less in the end).

It's not a bizarre line with a set of 4s or 2s because the hero played the hand as an overpair or a made set on the flop. His line invites a diamond bluff on the turn but is he bluffing thinking the hero would actually fold a set? It's a gross 50 50 call but is really player and read specific. I folded a middle flopped set once because of a guy so excited raising my flop bet that he was flogging it under the table. So the read can really be important. Oh, the flogging guy flopped top set.

That sucks but the 3b call skewed it heavy on the Axd side. I don't play a ton of 5/10 but in 2/5 for sure worse sets 4 bet a ton to get it in. And I don't feel like most 5/10 players are different unless I really know the player

8:57 responding to the hypothetical 8s turn card, is there not an argument to bet LARGE to blow villian off his draws and fold? The point of the game is to put chips in YOUR stack, no? Why get greedy and tempt a bad river card? $1,395 is a win...

Comments, help you’re welcome

I think we have underestimated the amount of sets villain can have. Some people just panic and shove. But maybe this doesn't happen much at 5/10 but it would at lower stakes.

I put V on AdKd but A3 is better. Don't like H bet sizing

bluffs to 3! are all straight flush draws. this means he can 3! bottom and middle sets that contain a club and JJ with Jd. AJ should never be a 3! that’s just a spew. still i think 3! is right play. SPR you need to get money in. imagine solver is always calling turn shove with JJ, Jd. likely folds all other set combos. anyone run the spot?

So youre just supposed to call oop with the nuts on the flop, when there are like half the deck that would complete flush and straight draws on the turn? If the opponent has set of 4s and 2s I would wanna get the money in before a scare card comes on the turn. If he has some combo draw I would want him to pay more to draw. I dont see the problem of 3betting on the flop. Yes, hero probably wont play an overpair in this fashion, but hero could have a combo draw himself like Ad3d Ad5d that would play this way as well.

He never has 56 of clubs after the flop 3 bet. He only has diamonds or sets and how likely is a set to turn that into a bluff?

I never run it twice. Either once or 3. There should be a winner imo

he has ace diamond king club

I think it is a bit incongruous that Bart thinks “if we assume opponent is thinking player, therefore they must have bluffs in any spot including this one”, when the caller himself (who is thinking enough to be a clp caller) JUST played a line wherein he likely has no bluffs.

If he has a small flush we have way more than 10 outs

Hero said in the very beginning that his Jd blocked diamonds and yet villain still made a flush. How is that possible? This game is rigged.

I really don’t like turn check

Hero betting his set OOP wasn't great. I prefer check-raise. Hero 3-betting was horrendous. Face up range, absolutely no bluffs, and too early in the hand to commit appropriately. When the worst case scenario happens and the turn comes a diamond, the only thing that justifies calling the shove is player read.

one of these days, Bart might actually respond to the question, "How are you?" with something other than "How are you?".

Easiest fold ever. Most obvious hand ever. After the flop 3b, villain knows almost certainly he's against a set, or even better the one combo of 56dd, and is highly unlikely to call with just a bluff draw. If he had a set, he's not shoving turn because he's going to think hero has a lot of flushes.

What other guy is Bart talking about lol there’s only 2 peeps in the pot

60 into 90 is fine

lol @ Bart getting haircut 😂😂😂 jk Bart😎

Within the first 30 seconds, I already know I don't like this hero.

Would Villian have folded if Hero raise all in on flop?

Poker is such a ridiculous game. 85% of players would be better off playing baccarat instead and lose less

I was in this spot 3 times yesterday, top set into monotone floo followed by villain jam. Im online on 200nl so i was able to comfortably call all three times and win showdown. Live against an unknown.. im probably folding a lot lmao rip

Hero played this horrendously OOP.

Fucken hell this dude is confused

It’s such a terrible call