From The Data Analysis Property Front Line

Рет қаралды 10,500

Күн бұрын

I discuss the state of the property market with Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at REA and Realestate.com.au.
What's happening to property prices, and volumes, and across the regions? And how will monetary policy and rate cuts interact?
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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!

Пікірлер: 146

@WalkTheWorldDFA 4 жыл бұрын

Podcast edition: episodes.castos.com/dfa/Side-By-Side-Oct01-20-00-09-1.mp3

@MisterShoeFace 4 жыл бұрын

As a hard working 36 yo husband and father, I hate this game. I only want to provide a home for my kids without going +half a million in debt. I hate the investors, the agents, the brokers, and the whole cultural politico housing racket. I hate myself for failing to provide. This whole game is a nightmare if you are on the losing side of the board. It should be shelter, nothing more.

@STROONZONY 4 жыл бұрын

i make grass huts cheap.

@badhabitz69 4 жыл бұрын

@@STROONZONY Do you accept BitConnect???

@nelsonvaz4165 4 жыл бұрын

I agree with you.

@MisterShoeFace 4 жыл бұрын

@Mike Haydon thanks Mike. You too.

@hereandthere6001 4 жыл бұрын

@ambidex0 knock yourself out.... literally

@yakyak3831 4 жыл бұрын

I like that she was not trying to sugar coat things. Straight to the facts.

@insidestraight4659 4 жыл бұрын

I have a new found respect for REA, well done Nerida.

@uxpjsxu 4 жыл бұрын

I am surprised why REA have decided to talk to Northy's viewership all of a sudden. Maybe it is b/c as she said their listings are better when the market is bad so they don't mind Martin's "dose of reality" type reporting.

@hagarthestoic3282 4 жыл бұрын

Telling it as it is.... How refreshing was that interview... Much respect for Nerida simply and clearly stating the situation as it is based on data. This interview came over with professional integrity that is rare in public discourse when the precious subject of Real Estate is covered.

@thenewvoice8 4 жыл бұрын

Informative interview. For sure she has to come back on in a month or so - indeed should try get her as a semi regular contributor.

@farqitol 4 жыл бұрын

North's avengers! Mild mannered Martin North, in the darkness becomes Da Finance Avenger. John Adams, economist by day, Dark Angel of the Apocalypse when the web cams roll. Edwin Almeida, chicos locos real estate spruiker by day, special needs on the weekends (likes soccer). Joe Wilkes, south pacific pom, wishes he was Edwin, but hasn't got the hair for it. (He does have his own Lycra unitard though.) And now, Real Estate Data, Anny List joins the team to add gender inclusion to the mix! Each has their own power! Each has their own agenda! Only one has a three legged dog! Together, they are unstoppable! Together they are mighty! Together, they conspire to make Edwin pay the bill for dinner... They are.......The ECONOPOCALYPSPENSIVABLES!!!!!! (Any similarity to the Avengers, Justice League or something Stallone is involved in, is thinly veiled admiration......)

@MG-xy9rn 4 жыл бұрын

Bull trap. Coffee shops closing around me. Unemployment rising and being discussed. Low volumes and rate cuts drawing people off the sidelines. That's all. If volumes increase and buyers thin out it's back to falling prices. If volumes don't increase unemployment will. Hard to see the per capita GDP improving

@gurmender4938 4 жыл бұрын

4:40 ??? Why did Corelogic post almost 2% house price growth for Sydney and Melb in September? Someone's telling fibs...

@markradovic4493 4 жыл бұрын

This is a really interesting interview and not what I feel REA would ordinarily publicly voice. Nerida provided a very honest appraisal of the current state of the property market. Keep up the fantastic work Martin.

@danenichols 4 жыл бұрын

I’m so impressed with Nerida Conisbee. I didn’t watch this video on day of release as I thought “here we go with the spin”. I sat down and watched today and was blown away by her honest and educated opinions. Thank you.

@haydnnelson1271 4 жыл бұрын

Really appreciated Nerida’s candour. Very helpful interview.

@rebeladvice2642 4 жыл бұрын

Awesome interview thank you Martin and Nerida for presenting a very WELL BALANCED view of the what's happening in the property market as so refreshing to hear the truth and not the propaganda spruiked by other well know commentators and MSM. I would love you guys to get together again and provide us with another insight in the coming months. Keep up the good work Martin as all Australians need to hear the true facts.

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@turbostyler 4 жыл бұрын

This is probably the best interview you've done to date Martin, and credit to Nerida for providing a valuable insight. Thank you both for teasing out the intricacies of our property market and economic well being in a very concise, analytical and no nonsense approach. It felt like a breath of fresh air actually getting decent news for once!

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@yuser5821 4 жыл бұрын

Auctions in Sydney & Melbourne are a unique phenomenon not really found anywhere else in the world.

@aspant4814 4 жыл бұрын

Nerida, Australian households are already over indebted....how can anyone force more debt onto them when the household isn't getting increases in income??? If it were that simple to rescue the construction industry then I would agree, we can escape a downturn. But the simple truth is that Australians are choking on debt and incomes are not rising....a faltering China only adds to our woes, it is not the cause.

@turbostyler 4 жыл бұрын

I'd argue that Australian incomes have probably peaked and won't rise in any meaningful way for probably a generation. When you consider that Australia imports skilled migrants which puts pressure on the higher paying jobs and exports high paying manufacturing jobs you can see that incomes are getting squeezed from both directions. Wages probably wont recover unless Australia reverses it's immigration policy (which it won't do) or business start bringing manufacturing jobs back which will probably take "structural changes" which would be the lowering of the minimum wage and removing entitlements.

@peterlawler2201 4 жыл бұрын

@@turbostyler or do what trump is doing

@peterlawler2201 4 жыл бұрын

@@turbostyler to make jobs return tax those offshore jobs by increased taxes on imported goods and services and passing laws preventing the importation of goods and services if they can be supplied in Australia. Is not that hard to do. wanta car industry easy for every car manufactured in australia that car company can import one car for the first company to set up car manufacturing after that rest get 2 cars made in australia can import one car. How do you think the manufacturing countries do it?

@AirIndiaAnand 4 жыл бұрын

And at last you caught the Bull by it's horn! Well done!

@patchpaddy 4 жыл бұрын

Nerida came across as refreshingly honest and candid not pessimistic but informative. I did like that she touched on the point Martin has made so many times that the property market is made up of so many different markets and that it can be doing well and not at the same time, which just allows the media or interest groups to cherry pick. Thank you both.

@timbassett9766 4 жыл бұрын

Nerida , congratulations you did a wonderful job , honesty does pay , you did good 🌹

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@michaeljp9605 4 жыл бұрын

Great show Martin thank you. And great guest, she presented very well and didn’t spruike at all which I half expected.

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@DouglasJamesyoutubechannel 4 жыл бұрын

I was one of those searching from nz, but not anymore.

@peternorth3694 4 жыл бұрын

Mmmmm the early 90s stop it Martin your bringing up some fond memories for me ! Geez Marty I have put my finger on some critical points back in the day !

@UsurpersAndAssassins 4 жыл бұрын

This was absolutely fantastic! Great information and views.

@timbassett9766 4 жыл бұрын

A great segment Martin & Nerida , nice to hear very basic honesty 👏🏻👏🏻, REA , in future will be my first place to research from noe

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@finarfin9939 4 жыл бұрын

I dont think the immigrants will stick around when this goes belly up. I dont think any immigrant would like to live in one of the most expensive places in the world earning pennies on the dollar. They'll bail the moment its becomes unsustainable. The sooner it does. The sooner normality can be restored.

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

That's why they emigrate...

@turbostyler 4 жыл бұрын

If you borrowed hundreds of thousands of dollars and lost your job and couldn't find another one, would you stay or go back home where you have been buying up property in your home village which is probably paid off.

@duskostrbac9629 4 жыл бұрын

when shit hit the ceiling, we are gone mate

@brett7989 4 жыл бұрын

Yeah so what happens to averages and medians if with low volume the volume of sales have moved from a balance of sales from all sales types to mostly more expensive. So this isn’t even a dead mans bounce, it’s just a difference in house type twisting the data

@kiyanriahi 4 жыл бұрын

great video with Nerida she has great knowledge about the australian housing market.

@grizzz6884 4 жыл бұрын

good on them for ,coming to the debate .

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@haroldgrey134 4 жыл бұрын

So it turns out selection bias towards melbourne and sydney premium suburbs is rigging auction results in the spruiker and media favour - and they're going crazy about it. That's like asking the question what percentage of swans in the world are black, but only looking in Albert Park Melbourne for them.

@d0cf1sh 4 жыл бұрын

great discussion, please bring her back in future

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@Natpoo101 4 жыл бұрын

Yes definitely seen Sydney Northern Beaches pick up

@ItchiusScrotus 4 жыл бұрын

The part explaining all the invaders buying here is such a blackpill, discussion welcome on the point

@juttagalbory6659 4 жыл бұрын

And ...what about Sydney high-rise that are cracking up, one after another...that's real good for public confidence.

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

That will skewer demand towards houses, and away from units.

@juttagalbory6659 4 жыл бұрын

@@wingkeechan5329 I'd go for old houses, built with real foundations, bricks and stone. Not the fairy floss houses put up in 3 days.

@jamesdeegan7365 4 жыл бұрын

they are not "cracks" they are "ventilation stripes with a natural look"

@damianbowyer6258 4 жыл бұрын

Gr8 Analysis Guys.

@Starcraftmazter 4 жыл бұрын

More from this girl ! Totally fair dinkum

@matthewbrook7683 4 жыл бұрын

Richard Koo did a serious of videos on what happened in Japan and it said that it is called a Balance sheet recession. Well worth a look.

@brendanwilliams248 4 жыл бұрын

Play that one back to her in a year or so Martin. It sounded like Ben Bernanke saying“the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@richrich3588 4 жыл бұрын

Martin thanks for all your work. Can you please give us more insight to REA and Corelogic divergence. Is it just a case of segmented means versus medians diverging on low volumes, or is there a darker art to the 'hedonic' index?

@brett7989 4 жыл бұрын

Martin yes Ozzie got past the GFC ok but before the GFC happened what was the RBAs interest rate setting? And what was it 2 years later?

@bigpatom4341 4 жыл бұрын

Chris Joye could learn a lot from watching this channel.

@MG-xy9rn 4 жыл бұрын

He is Thurman out of dinner for schmucks. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/g7yChZOJ0delZJs.html

@railwaymaniac 4 жыл бұрын

Good interview. :Like:

@guyfitter3006 4 жыл бұрын

Excellent. Very interesting. I bet there search data is very interesting.

@nicolasperez1822 4 жыл бұрын

She is blind by all that money 💵 she made in the past

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@candicecee181 4 жыл бұрын

but where is the "rea l" economy? more "hangers on" as money supply expands exponentially

@tonymango48 4 жыл бұрын

Impressive

@champprill1527 4 жыл бұрын

so why don't we go and get millions of africans to move to australia.. what could go wrong?

@champprill1527 4 жыл бұрын

@Rosscoe Schopenhauser That sounds familiar. Is that that Israels foreign policy? or the IMF? ... i always get those two mixed up for absolutely no reason whatsoever

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

UK investors are gaining interest in the Perth property market probably due to two reasons: the AUD is more stable than the £, and prices have fallen sufficiently to raise rental yields to investment grade.

@graymorkem6759 4 жыл бұрын

15 % of the Perth population is English.

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

@@graymorkem6759, irrelevant. I am Chinese, but none of my tenants in the past 12 years is Chinese.

@nffremote 4 жыл бұрын

Martin, can you do a show on LIBOR and whats happening with it, how it works, why we are transitioning to something else and what the risks and rewards are for markets and consumers. Thanks. Peter Nicholson

@bign1667 4 жыл бұрын

24:03..how will it be problematic? It will be a first home buyers dream come true.

@bign1667 4 жыл бұрын

I can imagine sellers flick realestate agents who tell them the truth that their homes are not worth over 1 million dollars anymore because it's a hard pill to swallow. Then giving the job to advertise and sell their homes to a desperate yes men realestate agent who promises them the world.

@sanjaygupta666 4 жыл бұрын

So in actuality Melbourne & Sydney prices are not increasing - a lack of sales, but at higher prices, DOES NOT CHANGE THE AVERAGE. Core logic is misleading the public - known as a type of Exception/Biased Sample Logical Fallacy

@bign1667 4 жыл бұрын

Spot on mate. I think their whole model is to tell people its going up or down on a daily basis on how they feel about it based on property share market.

@cbisme6414 4 жыл бұрын

Martin on employment with the automation of the mining industry and impact of shopping online resulting in less walk-ins into shops where do you see employment figures going and how do we offset that? Should we be focusing on manufacturing and processing our resources instead of selling the raw product for others to process as with our new lithium south of Perth.

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

Would depend on the type and quality of labour that have been churned out in the past decade by the Aussie educational system, or else, it would just be imported labour again.

@joshjeffrey2761 4 жыл бұрын

WOW!

@altbinhax 4 жыл бұрын

Boosting the FIRE economy via negative interest rates and other financial chicanery is like pushing more juice through a zombie.

@bondisteve3617 4 жыл бұрын

Ahhh...!...Mr. Martin steps up to the plate to face the wylie pitcher...first ball is a strike!...the second ball dances towards him and he blasts an outfield double scoring 2 in the bottom of the "Tory put"...thanks Mr. Martin.

@arthurtreibs4174 4 жыл бұрын

Ah Martin, you forgot to ask her why Ralan Constructions fell over with 3,000 condos half built if everything is sunshine and lollipops in Melbourne and the Gold Coast....HE HE HE HE

@peterburke7811 4 жыл бұрын

Wow Martin no comment.

@rexharrison400 4 жыл бұрын

Beware Mr North, if you sup with the devil use a very long spoon.

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@divine-wind 4 жыл бұрын

Question. if the federal government starts to spend on infrastructure due a recession/unemployment rate, will the RBA need to increase interest rates?

@mgrahamization 4 жыл бұрын

hahahah I think if housing stayed subdued, it wouldnt matter if unemployment was at 2% and and we were roaring along. The RBA would still find a way to say interest rates need to go lower. This is only about property.

@mgrahamization 4 жыл бұрын

@Ordinary Sessel Oh I think it goes hand in hand. Keeping peoples houses rising is good for the banks exposure and the mortgage owners. Because if the housing kept going down 1. The home owners/investors suddenly have a depreciation asset and a massive mortgage to service. This doesn't go well. 2. This in turn becomes a liability to the bank. Suddenly all these mortgages (assets) on their books go negative, they could suddenly be insolvent. Hence why APRA was the one to start saying to the banks you have too many IO loans that you are not converting to P&I. They were at risk of exposure. And to be honest, they all are. With mostly mortgages making up their books, most would be in big trouble in a property crash

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

House prices make up over 60% of banking assets. That's why the RBA has to crash the AUD to try avoiding a price crash in housing.

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

@Ordinary Sessel, they can only bundle and sell the premium accounts. What about the million accounts in mortgage stress and negative equity?

@wingkeechan5329 4 жыл бұрын

@Ordinary Sessel, the banks would not want to expose the rots in their cupboards...

@tsport100 4 жыл бұрын

You can't have your cake and eat it... At the start of the video she says they're "still seeing price declines" in Melb / Syd... then at 23:44 says "we're definitely in a housing recovery" HUH??

@NEDSTAR06 4 жыл бұрын

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@CookieMonster-wy4qb 4 жыл бұрын

Second

@STROONZONY 4 жыл бұрын

onya cooksta

@jameswillis8969 4 жыл бұрын

Your first of the cadaver f*%kers!

@CookieMonster-wy4qb 4 жыл бұрын

Mmmm I think Mr Sikorski has erased himself & migrated back too Poland 🇵🇱 kzfaq.info/get/bejne/m7B_aKuGxJ3DYas.html

@cyruschadrezzar9873 4 жыл бұрын

the next great conjunction is 12-21-2020. the last one was 5-31-2000 the year of the dot-com bubble burst.

@cyruschadrezzar9873 4 жыл бұрын

Jarred kzfaq.info/get/bejne/gdNlocWT2be6dKM.html

@cyruschadrezzar9873 4 жыл бұрын

@@xx-lk3bx check out Vasyl Popaduik

@ryanb9748 4 жыл бұрын

maybe buy REA shares... should be getting a few listings in the upcoming armageddon..

@Redblower 4 жыл бұрын

Tell Nerida the realestate.com.au website is impossible to use unless you have a stunning broadband connection....so much bloat with popups and sidebar crap....impossible and frustrating to use Nerida

@yuser5821 4 жыл бұрын

The property bubble is back in full swing but the real economy continues to suffer.

@noside2930 4 жыл бұрын

Can't confirm that yet, lets wait how consumer spending will go for this Christmas, if it goes well, then we can say that it is a decent chance the property market has recovered, that is one of the reasons i suspect behind the RBA rate cut

@MG-xy9rn 4 жыл бұрын

Exactly why this is a bull trap rather than the beginning of another 5 year boom cycle. Rates can only be cut so far. There are limits to growing credit when you are at household debt of 192% to GDP...

@yuser5821 4 жыл бұрын

@@MG-xy9rn Yes it may not go on for several years but these rate cuts seem to be achieving the desired stimulus. When the effect runs out (possibly in a year or 2) they will need to come up with something else. Of course, this is unsustainable as you say but they only think short term.

@yuser5821 4 жыл бұрын

@@noside2930 Yes fair point, but I suspect the upswing will be confirmed because every rate cut cycle since the GFC has resulted in strong price growth.

@davidlazarus67 4 жыл бұрын

Y User I doubt it is in full swing, only time will tell.

@gordonfarkas4064 4 жыл бұрын

It appears she is off script. WOOPS!

@bricemingant4532 4 жыл бұрын

I will say REA "didn't send their best", chit-chat no real data.

@baronjazzs.s.1865 4 жыл бұрын

In substance, she thinks housing is supply and demand based?? Completely ignores the role of credit. Sees the construction industry as essential? A pleasant open manner -yes- all kudos for the method of delivery but really lacking in substance in my view. There needs to be major fundamental shift in the Australian mindset towards global outputs based on increased productivity doh! Nonetheless, better than say other biased economists like Kusher and the banks economists. If she wasn't female I bet you guys would be harsher. Honestly, for substance in the analysis on macro level - how would give this any marks other that a 10 out 100. Perspective people.