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“It’s good when Phil is driving the bus.” Absolutely goddamn right.

'somehow Jerry connects that to the major 3rd of G like a bright beacon of hope' And that, my friend, is why we listen. 🎸

Bobby is probably the most underrated rhythm guitar player ever.

The song’s original 7/4 time signature was conceived by Weir using a metronome-like device known as a Trinome. The song’s structure was pieced together by self-described “shards of stuff in seven” Weir had been working on with a riff that he developed during a band rehearsal. Drummer Bill Kreutzmann took Weir’s at-the-time fascination with 7/4 and further developed the rhythm to give the LP’s lead track its “groove.” “Bobby came and showed me ‘Estimated Prophet’ at rehearsal,” Kreutzmann explained to Alan Paul in 2015. “And he had it going, ‘one, two, three, four, five, six, seven … ‘one, two, three, four, five, six, seven …’ I said, ‘Bobby, that’s no groove, That’s not working.’ I went home on a rainy night and stood in front of my fireplace by myself, rocking my body back and forth and counting and thinking. And I went, ‘Wow. Why don’t we make it half time and make two bars of seven into a 14? So it’s seven doublets and you come down on an even number!’ So we play sevens in bars of two; phrasing it that way is much more musical. That’s how I gave ‘Estimated Prophet’ groove. [sings the beat] The half time is the end of four, which takes you to a new seven.”

"It's like the sun just peaking through for a second and then it's right back to the reggae durge". Dude! Nailed it.

The mythical Cornell '77 show, one of the top 5 shows of all time. The band got disciplined in 1977 and played some tight shows. The boys always rocked the Barn.

You know, I'm not even a musician and just about most of the time I can't relate to the things you're explaining. But..what I love watching, is someone discovering music that I've been enjoying for many years. The things you explain have something SO important for aspiring musicians to pick up on. These guys weren't always on fire. Yes there are shows where it feels forced, they're not on the same groove, or one/multiple members are "off". BUT..when they're on it, they're ON IT. That quality of the music interlacing, hearing the bass, Bobby's sometimes substantial rythym contribution, and Jerry overtop of all of it. That sound, the complexity of it, when it all fits together, it will take you places. I've driven hours on the highway lost in a show, singing along, and just like great conversation, realized I've just been in a time warp, and that's my exit coming up. Its why there's so many deadicated fans, why we love this music so much. And musician or not it's really fun watching someone who knows music break it down and explain to people why it's so wonderful. Keep up the great work Mike!

I wasn’t actually a Grateful Dead fan until these videos. Thank you sir! I appreciate your videos!

I am hopelessly addicted to Phil bombs.

It's great to see people appreciate how complex and organized The Dead can be when most people think they're just a jam band

"We're in this world, then then we're in this world". Now THAT is basically a summation of the lyrical theme of Estimated Prophet.

This song - and Michael’s outstanding analysis and explanations - illustrate perfectly for me why I love the Dead so very much. Setting aside the incredible history of the band and all the cultural aspects of it (all of which are fascinating subjects in and of themselves), and looking solely at the music they created show after show, year after year, decade after decade. So many layers, so many facets, never the same song twice, never the same show twice. Thank the dancing bears and dark stars for Michael and all his hard work-making guitar come alive for so many, and keeping the Dead relevant and alive for a whole new generation!

Had the pleasure of seeing G. Dead 84 times between 1985-95, great way to see USA with a great soundtrack.

@16:20 - Michael loses himself during the bridge. I'm still giggling from your facial expressions. I get it brother.

So much fun watching someone fall in love with the dead. I’ve been in the bus since 1969, there’s room for everyone!!

Estimated always puts me in a trance. Especially Jerry’s solo before it gets dark. Great tutorial as always Micheal!

Hey now! Been watching since about 20k subscribed, 30 yr guitarist, seen the dead over 100 times. Turned my tv off in 2000 and devoted spare time to music. I was told a long time ago to find happiness in music and I think the message is worth sharing. You’ve found a way to put light in a place that needed it for people that needed it by creating a vehicle for us all to learn and love with no hate. Exactly what music should be Thank you.

As "Not-the-biggest-Dead-fan-in-the-world", this is absolutely my favorite song from Jerry and the band. Thanks for reminding me of this. Quarantine is the perfect time to revisit some vinyl that hasn't hit the turntable in a few years and 'Terrapin Station' feels like it would be about right as the thunderstorms blow through Long Island. EDIT: Your reaction videos on Billy Strings and Sturgill Simpson make me think that you might enjoy a listen to Jerry's 'Shady Grove' album. As much as I'm a *HUGE* fan of Thin Lizzy and Metallica, the cover of 'Whiskey in the Jar' from 'Shady Grove' will always be my favorite. Jerry and David Grisman truly nail the tune.

I’m 33 now but I used to listen to this recording on repeat in high school in awe of the dead. These are so cool to watch man it gives me a whole new perspective on the song writing and Jerry’s playing. Lived in San Francisco area 2017-2018 and had pleasure of seeing Phil at his terrapin crossroads bar in San Rafael. Don’t worry he’s still dropping bombs and driving the bus!

Great Song choice. I remember hearing this one in reverse at a Dead Show in Albany in the early 90's. They didn't play it backwards, i just had bullet-time vision and acute vibration analysis powers, brought on by 2 square meals of silver black magic...

This song maybe more than any other GD song switches between darkness and light. Along with the reggae groove, it’s a masterpiece. That some Deadheads hate on Bobby is inconceivable.

Listen to Estimated from Nassau 3/29/90 or 1st Estimated played live Swing Auditorium 2/26/77

Always a good day when Michael Palmisano uploads a new reaction video! Even better when it’s the dead on a Sunday.

The best review/reaction/explanation I've ever seen. I can't get enough of your breakdowns of grateful dead music, don't stop

What I love about the dead is that there’s like a million versions of the same song so it’s like you get a new song everytime

Absolutely one of the greatest musical compositions by one of the greatest groups of musicians in our lifetime. Thank you for the wonderful insight...!

listened to this 100 times and caught it live more than 10, never knew that was in 7 cool stuff

I've played guitar for 23 years, never really been able to afford long term lessons and can't really figure out scales on my own, which is unfortunate cause I'd likely be kind of a badass if I could've, but you do an excellent job and describing in detail the things that I have learned from noodling around to the Dead... the way Jerry just kinda rambles up and down the fret with no regard for the way you're supposed to do it, just so many cool little tricks and hops and flutters from both he and Bobby. Trying to follow those guys around a guitar has taught me so much.

You doing the Cornell '77 (or any Dead set) on Sunday will make my Sundays! and you ARE my online guitar teacher ... going slow, but going!

One of my favorite things to see is Musicians "nerding out" over their biggest influences. I think you did a great job of conveying how great this performance is. I normally don't listen to the Grateful Dead but I am definitely going to set aside some time to listen to their live concerts. I recently saw your Kacey Musgraves video and am happy that we share the same sentiments towards her. She is the best and also you might consider checking out her husband's work, Ruston Kelly. He is also a fantastic singer-songwriter. Assuming you still take requests, I would love to see you do a lesson on her Golden Hour track. It could be the live version or the studio version. The acoustic guitar playing on that record is unreal but especially on Golden Hour. Thanks for the videos and the lesson.

Dude I love your break down and enthusiasm of the dead. As a life long guitar player I still get amazed by what the dead did. Good job explaining it!

Love this!! Thank you so much for finally explaining the time signature of this song. This such an incredible groove. Was always such a joy when the first few notes suggested “Estimated” at a show. Let the dancing begin✌🏻😎

Jerry's explorations could kick the boys off into a spiral at any time! lol

Love these Cornell lessons. Great teaching and playing and smiling.

34:26 Love that you mentioned that, Bob and Jerry were a great team and used to have great "musical conversations" especially in '72-'73 with the very lengthy jams like Dar Star, The Other One or Playin'. Great video as always, as long as you keep making vids on the Dead i'll keep watching

Eyes of the world next please

Just a couple of related comments: 1. Lazy Lightning -> Supplication is another great groove in 7. So is the end of Uncle John's Band jam. 2. Fox Theater, Atlanta 5/19/77 is like Cornell in sonic quality, as is this whole tour, with it's own tremendous grooves. Playing the in Band in 10/4, a Deadhead staple. 3. Thanks for it all. Love this grouping of videos.

Trust me, the deadheads know the odd time signatures. You could always see it in the dancing of the crowd. There is also the eleven, really odd. Also new potato caboose from ‘69 shows has a section that is thirteen. Playin in the band is ten which isn’t odd but still strange. The reason these recordings are so clear is they are from the famous series of “Betty boards.” Recordings made by Betty Cantor right from the soundboards. They started to be traded sometime in the 80s and were the first really good recordings most people had.

I'm so stoked for this!! You should do something, anything from the Europe 72 tour

Hey Michael, this is the coolest series on KZfaq! I’ve been following along since before you started doing Dead videos but am a total deadhead and love every minute of your analysis. If you ever want to continue this whole show approach after you finish with Cornell, the Veneta OR 72’ show is one of their greatest concerts of all time and just so happened to be captured in video. The bird song, dark star and China > rider are out of this world, and it is a unique view into a unique time. A free concert in the heat of summer in 1972, can you even imagine the joy?! Also, legend has it the whole band was getting “experienced” for that show, which was a rare occasion after the late 60’s.

Just a tiny suggestion, after you breakdown a section like you did in the bridge I would love to see you go back and replay it without stopping before you move on. Absolutely love your channel and the journey through Barton Hall!

That’s exactly how I am when I hear this one. When that envelope filter kicks in, chills up my spine. Immediately. I have a feeling Jerry turned it off by accident but somehow not starting with the filter provides this extra punch on the very first note.

1976 was a great transitional year, one oh my favorite eras. Give this date a listen 1976 07 16 at the Orpheum. Digging the channel!

Ah yes - what we used to call "Bob's chord lake" - many of his compositions feature deeply complex and counter-intuitive passages like this! The Jerry solo reamained 4x14 beats until the December 77 shows, when they became 16x14... the most exciting Jerry solos for this song for me are those in 1978 and early 1979, when this expanded terrain was still new to him - later on I find he starts to play this section a bit predictably.

One of the beautiful things about The Dead was that they allowed soundboards at their shows and the recordings were freely shared among us. Yes, they were on cassette tape, but it was such great fun.

So stoked you finally got to this! And the saying went "Never miss a Sunday show" so you're right on track! When you did a JRAD version of "Black Throated Wind", which is another wacky Weir/Barlow tune, I seem to remember you commenting on how strange the structure was.

Thanks for breaking it down. One of their best tunes for sure.

Thanks for doing Estimated Prophet! I've been waiting for this and you did not disappoint!!!

Michael...two of your greatest comments in your videos I absolutely love! "Keep track of your ROOTS and your THIRDS... and Jerry is a "third hunter". Such great descriptions of what the band is doing from a musical theory perspective. Keep 'em coming!

absolutely LOVE this. One of if not my most powerful bob/barlow tune. MOVES ME EVERYTIME

Again, I am not a musician, I don't know a C from a good GD, sharp or minor, but I love watching your experience hearing these Cornell cuts for the first time. I've listened to this show hundreds of times and it's intersting for me to finally get a glimpse into how these songs work. Thanks! What you keep calling "experimental" is sorta referred to as the "Jerry Zone" where he simply takes off.

One of my all time faves of The Dead and one of the best tunes they ever did lyric and musicwise.

As with Dancin' and Scarlet/Fire, Phil is driving this thing!

Keep doin what you’re doin man! Love the channel!

I am not a guitar player but enjoyed this video, great to see the Dead still alive. I do play bass a little, nice Phil shout outs, I remember the days back in "The Phil Zone". Love this song.

Michael, congratulations on such great content...this is solid gold to my Dead ears. I' just recently found your channel, and I've been enjoying these Dead breakdowns (and other stuff). Just wanted to say that for Estimated--all of us that went to shows...when it gets to the bridge (about minute 17 on your vid)...that was such a major highlight...pretty much the entire crowd would go into a fevered revelry. In many ways it was like a moment of high anticipation...and when Jerry took the solo--the dam would break. Cheers.

Some of there finest work, beautiful song!!

Wow, it's so weird...I've loved this song since Terrapin Station days and never really thought about the tie signature. But you are right, it's clearly in 7+7! I love how the second 7 shifts the emphasis over to the second beat...thanks for alerting me : )

Another excellent walk through. A few thoughts... 1) Grab a Micro-Tron IV - $280, darn close and stage-reliable. 2) Years back (about this time I think) there was a Guitar Player interview with Jerry where he's asked about a previous comment he'd made about "mastering the neck" - basically your triads mini-tutorial, 3) there is an interview in one of the many "Dead" books where, I think, Bobby, mentions that they spent weeks woodshedding The 11 and other odd time signatures so they had plenty of riffs and fills to slot into those tunes, and 4) that whole outlining the chords, chromatic movement, and the diminished (and minor 6th of course) goes straight back to Gypsy Jazz and of course Jerry, Les, Chet, and hundreds of others in those couple generations all alluded to his influence... so maybe a Django reaction sometime?

I've always felt that this song is very much in that Hunter-esque vein of intentionally open lyrics of darkness and light. The desolate "my time's comin'; been so long I felt this way; don't worry about me", etc. to the glorious burnin' shores of California, rising up to paradise. Finally, he reaches the full potential of his "power" , calling down the thunder in the bridge. And weir, expertly blends these lyrics with his amazingly weird chord changes. I think the weirdness was, as you said, intentional. It really captures the mood of all of the sides of this Prophet. Great song, great analysis. Thanks!

This might just be the perfect mix. So clear for such a dense mixture of phrases and sounds.

Thank you so much for breaking these down! Your helping me Fall deeper and deeper in Love with The Grateful Dead every time! Truly the Coolest jams ever !

Great insights and enthusiasm as always! Especially that "ray of sunshine" jerry throws at you from the bridge. Riding in on the major 3rd through the San Franciso fog! 🎸⚘😊👍

This is great content you are providing. Really helping my inspiration. Thanks for breaking these dead songs apart. You are a master in disguise!

This show is outta site, on fire, every second of every song, and Phil grooves, pounds and swings the pace/feel from beginning to end! As tight as everyone one was, Phil and Keith have some extra mind-blowing moments! Just got to where you key up on Phil, I agree 100000% Phil , he was just everywhere, another level. First songs I heard off of it were Scralet/Fire, I remeber just losing my shit from that first bass line, the slide and little bounce, heavy, clean,perfect and he just takes off, I actually just kept yelling "PHIL!"

Althea from without a net album. Please and thank you. Or eyes of the world with branford on same album. Great versions that will make deadheads proud to share with people who are not familiar with GD.

Unlimited Devotion. Thanks for the wonderful breakdowns. Loving you journey with the Dead.

You have to check out Eyes of the World!! 6/18/74 is my favorite, it features the amazing audio of the Wall of Sound that rivals the 5/8/77 recording. 9/3/77 is another legendary one if you wanna check that out but honestly every version is epic

Good on ya, Brother. I hadn’t listened to much Dead since the 90’s and these vids are getting me back into them. Many thanks!

One of my all time favorite Dead song this one and Red Rooster.

When Phil is on the Dead are on. Phil's basslines are what made me originally listen to every instrument from any band. Focusing on each instrument.

Of note, they first performed Estimated Prophet on February 26, 1977, 71 days before this performance.

the song is actually a portrait of an amalgamation of a number of very specifically similar fans. they would come up to bobby and explain to him why the whole purpose of the grateful dead was to speak directly to them personally, and they each had these arcane theories about lyrics and events and the timing of shows, etc. so when weir & barlow wrote it, the musicality of it had to reflect that.

I've been waiting for you to get to this tune, to explain the why it is so great. My love for reggae and dead combine like voltron - then there are the lyrics, and Phil, of course. Jerry's leads are like light streamers- like you said, bright and guiding. Totally enjoyable funkiness.

My band had a quarantine gig 3 days ago, opening for Royal Bliss doing a Tom Petty tribute. Man, it was so fun to get back on stage. Of course the bar was in total COVID mode, but still the crowd had so much fun, as did we. I hope we can continue despite the pending danger. Oh, and I got my masters at Cornell...but much after this.

Intelligent, well executed bass is always the best part of music. A lot of people disregard the bass, but they aren't listening. They are social / superficial listeners. Anyone who listens agrees Phil is one of the greatest bassists.

“ It’s the craziest stuff ever” describing the change. makes your head spin ..🤣😂. That was the Dead’s intention to bring fun weirdness to live audiences across the country. They designed their own style of music .. Loved this lesson.. thanks Michael you’re great ❤️💥🔥👏👏👏

Saw them do it live in ‘77 at Spartan Stadium in San Jose. They were really on that day!

Cumberland Blues 9/27/72 Ferocious

to watch someone of your musical knowledge prowess dig this tune the way you do leaves nothing left for me to do but smile smile smile!

I love your videos. You have a real love of playing and listening to music.

Just found you today, not sure how I haven’t heard of you or seen any of your videos, but your reactions to the story behind Tyler Childer’s “Nose on the Grindstone” made me hit that sub button. Love real musicians reacting to other musicians. It’s much more entertaining than the non-musicians//vocal coaches. Most are worried about how ‘cool’ they sound, but musicians find the story in the words as well as the voice and chords. Love it love it!

As a long time Deadhead and a relative of a guitar player, I thank you for having the talent and hutzpah to analyze these Dead songs. Unfortunately, my brother in law went off the deep end, but I'm still.here loving it!!!

Mike, this is extremely helpful for an understanding of a great tune. Thanks!!!

I love your enthusiasm for the dead brother. Infectious.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when Pink Floyd play Money live, I'm pretty sure they drop down to 4/4 for the solos. Which makes the Dead's improv which remains in 7 even more impressive.

Found you because you're going over some Dead songs. Great stuff, I hope you keep it up! (But keep covering whatever else you love, too!)

Thank you for making Sunday so good!

The Dead were brilliant song writers!!! Thanks for breaking it down..........Your enthusiasm is contagious!!

They could do no wrong on 5/8. P.S. I'm so happy when I see another expert guitarist stumped by Jerry in a good way!🌞 About the closest you'll get to see this live is 11-24-78 with a great extended Jerry solo.

You are the shit. Thanks for making these videos, the continue to make me smile every time.

Makes my day seeing your face light up every time you stop and listen

Alright! Thank you, Michael! I'm psyched. Here we go.

Excellent, thanks again for another great breakdown. Been on this train for a long time, over 30 years and a musician as well, your analysis is always interesting, and it's been fun watching you get flipped at the high points. Keep it up! I must say, I feel you have been holding out, waiting to go through one of the greatest gems in this show, the Jack Straw. No knock against anything else in this show, I've been listening to this show for decades, but this Jack Straw stands alone. It's unlike any other version of that song and is fantastic. The flow, the vocals, the whole band. Dynamics are crazy, from low to high and back again. It really fulfills the feel of the song lyric, esp at the last solo, of a couple of outlaws, and what's going on in the mind of one of them as he stays up all night deciding if he's going through with killing his partner. I think you'll find a lot to work with, can't wait (hint hint). Peace brother...

Ok...now your doing my favorite song from my favorite live Dead album......gives me something to reach for even though my band days are over.....I gave up my once a month open mic host duties years ago due to physical limitations but I still love the instrument....as well as mandolin.....just subbed....

"Ugghh it's sooo good." While grabbing your face. The amount of times this has been done listening to the Dead is uncountable.

Yes. Sundays are perfect for the Grateful Dead. We often called shows, going to Church.

God bless you Mike for giving the Dead credit where it is deserved. I will never understand how tiight this band is.

What a beautiful guitar!