Has HDFC Bank become Cheap post this Fall!! Lets find out
Рет қаралды 95,917
6 ай бұрынValuation sheet:
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@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Folks: I am neither bearish nor too bullish here. Video is educational and supposed to teach you how to value such cos. I think banks are relatively cheaper part of the market, personally invested in many smaller ones. Have done a detailed valuation of HDFC Bank here on the basis of Book value per share: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/142UsDPqrjreswSyAOYGoWcVb8xqmqPlMY8iRHLA59lU/edit#gid=0
@manikandanjai6263 6 ай бұрын
99% channels review stocks whereas SOIC always reviews business.
@akshaymanta55 6 ай бұрын
@@njexictfanP. O. V. When you become too data driven and rational 😂
@debojitrabha2502 6 ай бұрын
Nah..you are 99% wrong on this one 😂
@ravijag73 6 ай бұрын
What a statement👌
@bhaktisaar1034 6 ай бұрын
Where he review business he is comparing only.
@MEDSimplified 6 ай бұрын
Bought 396 shares of HDFC today at 1546 avg. My prediction is that will definitely hit 1900-1950 levels within 4-6 months. 🎉
@Onlynatures 6 ай бұрын
Brother add more share tomorrow at 8% dip😂😂
@niveyshak 6 ай бұрын
Brother Large caps do not move up like that.
@Onlynatures 6 ай бұрын
@@kapoorsarthak right
@telugucodingraja 6 ай бұрын
@@niveyshakplease check tata motors
@anilpudota290 6 ай бұрын
No doubts, about to add
@DaSnipy 6 ай бұрын
There are 99% channels .. *and then there is SOIC* ... Too good Sir Ji .. Thanks.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Many many thanks
@tajji4u 6 ай бұрын
Ishmohit, one factor of further deterioration in advances by peers and subsequent premiumization of hdfc bank needs to be considered
@jeljojose 6 ай бұрын
Interesting, such kind of discussions always keep happening with stocks. JP Morgan Chase in 2011 with Market Cap of around 126 billion was thought of as "too big to grow" at that base. In 2015, it grew to 250 billion and today it is at whopping 486 billion. When MRF was cruising towards 50,000, many said it would never happen. Today it's worth more than 1 lakh per share. The only share of its kind in India.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Important to realise: CAGR falls. One cannot expect 30% CAGR from 11lakh crore base
@hetsuresh4510 6 ай бұрын
Best part always is honest opinion, and which is remarkable and was lacking in most of the other financial influencers
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
We're glad to know you find value in our content. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🤝😃
@rahulgupta-rh9th 5 ай бұрын
Learning a lot from you. How many years it will take us to earn knowledge like you have brother
@cibiyaaugustine1882 5 ай бұрын
Thank you for adding English subtitles
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
We're pleased that you're enjoying learning with us. 😃 Thankyou for watching our videos. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🤝
@vishalpant6173 6 ай бұрын
The most objective analysis of bank's fall with numbers, rather than emotions
@polaganiabhimanyu5445 6 ай бұрын
I learnt that when looking at a bank we must focus on NIM, PROVISIONS and EPS Growth
@SonalThombre 6 ай бұрын
Such a quality content and less likes and subscribers Ishmohit sir keep it doing One day u will get 100m followers
@PIYUSHGUPTA-jg1yw 5 ай бұрын
Hey, SOIC, can you make a video about how to check management effectiveness by using the framework of compensation, character and operations - a model from the 5 rules for successful stock investing?
@ravijag73 6 ай бұрын
Ishmohit once again your pulse reading skills are 👌. I was looking for a quick capsule of why the back fell today and lo and behold we have your excellent content for consumption. Kudos to your timing and depth plus peer comparison. Namaste from Bengaluru🙏
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
You’re welcome 😊
@manas3184 6 ай бұрын
NIMS reduction main major role is due to Merger with HDFC I think... Housing finance companies have lesser NIMS as they have no CASA( current account or Savings account)
@laxmip7537 6 ай бұрын
Great ley.. in every vedio
@dhillonmanpreet406 5 ай бұрын
Very informative as always
@inside1250 6 ай бұрын
Almost 12% correction in HDFC Bank, results not good for this fall. In many groups discussion but I think the story is different. Cash delivery vs trading volume gap is very less for this stock. So book minimum losses in the cash market & make huze money in FnO. That's why in the long-term...stock returns are zero in HDFC Bank. Banknifty 48K and HDFC Bank 1650
@AnketGhosh 6 ай бұрын
first of all HDFC Bank didn’t give return to investor from last 2 years aur ab ye fall
@khasimsyed9456 6 ай бұрын
Waiting for your vedio ❤
@Savithaega 6 ай бұрын
Please can you please comment why did you choose p/b values to estimate future value? usually we are supposed to estimate EPS based on the current business and future growth etc?
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Because banks are valued on the basis of PB and not PE
@Senthil_srinivasan 5 ай бұрын
We cannot cap a growth of a company just beacuse its huge, in my opinion. This contraction in NIM is due to merger and it will take few quarters to stabilize and backe to 4+. Thats exactly was a commentary from management as well. The bank will be agressive to increase advances to get the Loan to adavnaces ratio in line where rhey want it to be since its very much off to this banks standards status post merger. Bank will be on its growth path after few quarters of consolidation due to the merger.
@user-dt1qo6ld8e 5 ай бұрын
Excellent general and fundamental analesis
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
We're pleased that you're enjoying learning with us. 😃 Thankyou for watching our videos. We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🤝
@gorakhkakade4293 6 ай бұрын
very good analysis.... thank you sir.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Welcome!
@rahulgupta-rh9th 5 ай бұрын
You should be in shark tank as you are the only 1 with immense knowledge
@rajpatil4469 6 ай бұрын
As I start my career and can't afford a SOIC membership right now, any suggestions for books or resources on investing from anyone would be really helpful.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
7-8 Must read Books if you are new to the World of investing : x.com/soicfinance/status/1685254225964711936?s=46
@GauravKumar-ot4pd 6 ай бұрын
Hey, I clicked on to purchase the membership, however the price shown there is 14999 instead of 12500 mentioned in the comment box. Can you check please.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
For any information regarding our courses and membership, please email us at info@soic.in We’ll get back to you at the earliest in 24-72 hours.
@shekarreddy1986 6 ай бұрын
Proud of being soic tribe member
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
We are happy to continue adding value to your investing journey. 🙏
@govindgupta1916 6 ай бұрын
They mentioned the book value of 577 in PPT for this quarter
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Simply add, 3-4% to the number for Financial year end and you can do the math :) Excel sheet in the description. I have taken 15% BVPS compounding in FY26- which is much higher than 12-13% taken by analyst estimates. Answer will be the same for FY27 or similar
@akashgoswami4862 6 ай бұрын
Sir Indian cricketer Arshadeep Singh looks like you 😀
@srinivasparimi4204 6 ай бұрын
Sirji. I just want to break even. Not expecting anything.
@pankajbish 5 ай бұрын
Very good content however you failed to observe that profit includes written back of provision and profit from operations have actually fallen by 7pc
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
But AIF provisions will also not be there no next Q? Thus, simply looking at EPS YoY helps
@devrajchaudhari1628 5 ай бұрын
When will launch your book you made a promise it will available Dec 23
@MrWRONGSPELL 5 ай бұрын
There are many flawed rationale in the Vedio - the drop in NIM and Increase in C/I is due to blended effected of HDFC ltd merger with Bank - only problem with HDFc is that bank has not been able to achieve expected efficiency from thr merger
@vikasyadav4972 6 ай бұрын
Hello SOIC, I want to learn value investing in deep and was looking for some undervalued paid course . And when I was going through SOIC course and pricing, I got confused about what actually I will be able to get and access to what other than the course videos ?
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Live classes every Sunday+Course content is very differentiated including an exit strategy. Rest its totally okay if you learn from our free videos
@Utubewonderful 6 ай бұрын
@@SOICfinancebro are you teaching in English?
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Yup!@@Utubewonderful
@Utubewonderful 6 ай бұрын
@@SOICfinance oh great because all your videos are in Hindi so only asking just for clarification nothing against the language but as i don't know Hindi also wanna learn this from you.
@sachinsuvarna7764 6 ай бұрын
Is banking sector still in stage #2 ?? Few weeks bank you mentioned banking sector is in stage#2 ??
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Leaving aside an HDFC Bank, smaller banks like SIB, Equitas or even NBFCs like IIFL fin are doing very well. Beyond Bank Nifty there is life here
@harshitrastogi866 6 ай бұрын
Please reduce some price of your membership course its difficult for a student to buy it
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Thank you for reaching out to us. Our prices are much affordable compared to the market. We keep rolling out offers. It's up to you to determine the value in the quality of our work. For our tribe, we do our best to ensure the price you pay far exceeds the value you receive. For any information about our courses and membership, please email us at info@soic.in Please note that we strictly don't give any buy/sell/hold investment advice, suggestions or recommendations. We are an educational organisation focused on adding value to retail investors. 🙏😃
@nkrishnamys 6 ай бұрын
Nooo. It's still overvalued.
@puk4166 6 ай бұрын
Tomorrow will more cheap....Adr down near 8% as of now...
@user-zo6xv9sc8s 6 ай бұрын
Please bring smallcase.
@amrindersingh_1986 6 ай бұрын
No fake content. Just best knowledge
@ygjugrdgbjn777 5 ай бұрын
Bro HDFC BANK BOOK VALUE is only 379 per zerodha and trendlyne.. However you are stating 500 which is correct?
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
They haven't included the merger and Q1+Q2+Q3 results. My numbers are updated accounting for it
@DRJAYESHAHIR 6 ай бұрын
PAAJI MAKE VIDEO ON LTIM SHARE FALL DOWN.
@Prashantsaini4 6 ай бұрын
Request have a relook on your video 1 year ago. And then maybe talk on the same lines and what changed… last year you showed how every few years it doubled its book value… today you are showing every few years it give 0 returns… request club takeaways of all the 3 videos you have posted on hdfc bank… and please take a stand… sometimes you just confuse the hell out of a listener… who expects such a huge company to give 25% growth… just tell what changed after 1 year.. could it still double its book value in 5 years… it had been 15% type return stock.. you please tell if it is cheap enough now… justify your title atleast 🙏
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Kindly watch the valuation analysis done in this video. A video is never a buy or sell. Don't be blind. 52 weeks in a year and 52 business analysis doesn't mean buy or sell. New management commentary states 15% growth, doubling BVPS over 5 years. Here:- docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/142UsDPqrjreswSyAOYGoWcVb8xqmqPlMY8iRHLA59lU/edit#gid=0
@Prashantsaini4 6 ай бұрын
Thanks. Sorry may be i got slightly frustrated with the stark difference in analysis of same stock… I respect your analysis a lot… following you from 2-3 years now.. thanks for the clarification… my takeaway… since nothing bad has happened.. no much downside seems to be left… it may continue to be in small range of 1450/1500 to 1700/1800 in consolidation in near term, till it starts showing improved numbers… Conclusion… it can still be a very safe bet to park a huge amount till any fresh opportunity strikes in higher growth companies…
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Possibly, but do compare with the likes of ICICI and Axis :)
@rahulgupta-rh9th 5 ай бұрын
I am also the part of your research group
@sourabhlinga4229 6 ай бұрын
There is nothing such as larger the base lower the move. Apple doubles every 3-4 years. It’s just a myth
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Stats are against you. Will post data soon- have it with me
@vigneshwarrajc6629 6 ай бұрын
If you the market saturates what will happen??? Even if they open a bank in every nook and corner of the country it will not happen. if the addressable market is saturated, the growth will be less.
@AbhiYadav1593 6 ай бұрын
Waiting for smallcase from SOIC. Please asap🙏🙏
@user-gf9ti2bt3b 6 ай бұрын
bro don't be lazy and let this genuine guy do his work. Go to other youtubers for getting smallcase
@lingarajkudari2959 6 ай бұрын
Better to Invest in MF
@himanshuagrawal747 6 ай бұрын
Good idea
@njexictfan 6 ай бұрын
Bro you are defeating the whole purpose of this channel, whats the point of getting knowledge when you gonna beg for someone else to manage your money in the end?
@ravijag73 6 ай бұрын
Not everyone has time and knowledge to do independent analysis so someone is asking for small case ideas.
@apnajimmy3003 6 ай бұрын
Paji bhut jyada videos a rhia ne.kite quantity de chakkar ch quality ch compromise na kr deo.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
3rd Video in 20 days is okay no??
@apnajimmy3003 6 ай бұрын
Kyoki tuhadi jini marji lambi video ho jawe mai kalli kalli gal bhut dhyan nal sunda.
@aunbahadur8794 6 ай бұрын
YES
@aquariusneon 6 ай бұрын
thank u
@satyen2122 5 ай бұрын
Good analysis
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
We're glad to know you find value in our content. Our team at SOIC is committed to adding value to your investing journey, and we look forward to providing you with more educational resources in the future. 🤜
@parveenkumar-zc9ph 6 ай бұрын
Mst knldg,ty
@chandrashekharsingh-tk2em 3 ай бұрын
PVR next multibagger
@aaosikhesharemarket3533 5 ай бұрын
You should not count 2007 to 2009 zero returns. That was recession period
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
Technically still counts as 0 returns no?
@darshanjanoti4593 6 ай бұрын
HDFC Bank me promoter holnding last jun tak 25 % thi par abhi 0 hai kya promoter mal chipka gaya ?
@Rohitbedi20 6 ай бұрын
Results are very bad... Their loan disbursement is more than their deposits.... Market has other options until they correct this mess from their books.
@kamalahmad5855 6 ай бұрын
Great
@veerid4287 5 ай бұрын
Chances for going stock below 1400 is minimal. Please go through monthly chart and 20 month moving avg details. Also check PE ratio.
@drishtantchakraberty3768 6 ай бұрын
Why are you not using justified price to book concepts which are linked to the ROE numbers, instead of taking random numbers like 3x, 2.5x and 2x.. You make no mention of ROE for a bank stock, which was rather shocking.. The reduction in ROE for the Bank from 17% to around 15.5% clearly points towards lower justified multiples..
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Yes, ROE has gone down hence taken the lower valuation multiple rather than 4-5x which it used to get in the past. We've shared the sheet in the comment you can assign any other multiple to it and may create your valuations scenarios.
@user-ne6bt7he9o 6 ай бұрын
Lemon brothers vs HDFC Bank Ltd crisis compair kar Lena.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Nope..hdfc issues are temporary
@dlokesh20 6 ай бұрын
Hello sir, Could you please try to explain in English also or else atleast add English subtitles instead of Hindi. So that we non Hindi speaking people's also learn from you.
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Thank you for watching our videos. We appreciate your patience, the subtitles will be available in 48-72hrs. 🙏
@arunkumarilangovan1707 5 ай бұрын
Awesome
@sameermehendiratta2995 6 ай бұрын
Hdfc Bank is a sleeping elephant
@udaykiranmudigonda 5 ай бұрын
For a moment I thought you were on building 😅
@tuhin2839 5 ай бұрын
Bhaiya Defence stocks ke upar video banaiye.
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
Thank you for your suggestion. 😃 We'll keep this in mind for our future content. 🤝 We hope to continue adding value to your investing journey.
@niveyshak 6 ай бұрын
Ishmohit - Take rest bhai You work too hard. When do you sleep ?
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
2-2:30am :) wake up at 9:30am
@niveyshak 6 ай бұрын
@@SOICfinance teach me too to wake up at 9:30 in Delhi in this cold weather 😂
@ajaygoel6662 6 ай бұрын
It will go down to 1265 label
@anandkeshav 6 ай бұрын
Bhai🙏🏻
@Crazymathindian 6 ай бұрын
So Only logic you have is that it has high mcap so no growth..Is logic se to Apple or Microsoft ki growth hi nh chahiye Today it has fallen so everyone has made a theory of his own to look a wise HDFC BAnk ki last 3,&5 year ka profit CAGR is 20% despite credit card ban period, in the long run stock price is a bound to profit growth so 15-16%. is base case scenario Increased branches & lower interest rate may propel it to 20%+
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
You are ignoring base rates. Idea of video is to temper expectation of retail investors who expect multi baggers from compounding outcomes
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Let 3-5 years, didn't have HDFC Ltd base in HDFC Bank. HDFC ltd itself derated pre demerger to 2.3-2.4 times. HDFC can do well, but temper your expectations.
@Crazymathindian 6 ай бұрын
@@SOICfinance Investors should not expect multibagger return But still a stock with 20% Profit CAGR trading at 20PE seems to be cheap to me
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Banks are valued on PB..and not PE
@Crazymathindian 6 ай бұрын
@@SOICfinance Book Value is also calculated based on incremental Earnings So ultimately PE or PB are proportionately related
@bbanaji1 6 ай бұрын
It deserves to fall.... It is patheticaly inefficient
@Onlynatures 6 ай бұрын
Tomorrow more cheaper😂😂
@sadashenoy4339 6 ай бұрын
Hell yes!
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
😊🙌
@shyam4227 5 ай бұрын
❤❤❤❤❤❤
@manojranjan582 6 ай бұрын
Pranam sir 🙏
@lakshminarasimhanpb506 6 ай бұрын
Have you decided to completely ignore non-hindi speaking Indians ?? Or, are you asking us to unfollow you ?! Why no english subtitles atleast, if you dont bother to do english videos ???
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Thank you for watching our videos. We appreciate your patience, the subtitles will be available in 48-72hrs. 🙏
@GeetaSharma-lc6qc 6 ай бұрын
👍
@vishalbharti7319 6 ай бұрын
Bhai bas ye bata do lena kab chalu kare 😂...aap ke video meri samjh ke bhar rahte hai...😅
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Please note that we strictly don't give any buy/sell/hold investment advice, suggestions or recommendations. We are an educational organisation focused on adding value to retail investors. 🙏
@sanjeevpandiya981 6 ай бұрын
JP Morgan is valued at 1.35xBook Value. HDFC Bank is unlikely to see a valuations rerating ever. The India Premium will also reduce: their growth is not going to be much more than the nominal growth of the economy, about 11%. Longer-term, if RoE is projected at 15%, then I will give a 1.5x premium over JP Morgan Chase, that’s about 1.8xBook Value. But we need to incorporate Rs.150 per share for the subsidiaries, at 30% holdco discount. 😊 But right now, the stock needs to go down enough to create a Margin of Safety for a value investor who plays for 1.8-2xBook Value, with 15% RoE. So maybe today’s ADR decline of 6%, might trigger a Parity of Insanity selloff. 😅😂
@rajasekar2690 6 ай бұрын
I don't know hindi most of your speach is in hindi
@SOICfinance 6 ай бұрын
Thank you for watching our videos. We appreciate your patience, the subtitles will be available in 48-72hrs. 🙏
@SriRama7832 6 ай бұрын
HDFC Bank will be the Next BlackBerry, In this Digital era the HDFC is thinking to open More offline Branches which leads to unnecessary Capital Expenditure & Operating Cost, what CFO was thinking.
@sumitbhanse007 6 ай бұрын
HDFC Bank is having one if the India's best digital banking platform, I am telling this because I am account holder. When you want to apply for home loan you are not going to apply online ofcourse you are going to the branch for the procedure. Think Research And Conclude
@kritesh17p 6 ай бұрын
@@sumitbhanse007HDFC BANK STATIONED MY DAD HOME LOAN THROUGH DIGITAL PLATFORM AND ALL DOCS ARE UPLOAD ONLINE PORTAL
@pranavgote 6 ай бұрын
They are opening branches in locations where digital adoption is low
@sumitbhanse007 6 ай бұрын
@@pranavgote I am not sure on this but most probably that would be the case logically thinking.
@aswinr405 5 ай бұрын
As per data loans/deposits achieve peak when branch age reaches 10-15yrs or above. HDFC bank has the highest number of branches in India compared to any other banks falling under this category soon. I read about it in Finshots, recently.
@vipulpandeymyfriendworldis7725 6 ай бұрын
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
@chetannarsana6710 6 ай бұрын
ltim
@madhursinghal9477 6 ай бұрын
❤
@9986095512 6 ай бұрын
Sir please introduce smallcase of soic.
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
We don't have a small case at the moment. We will update if we do so
@hareshvig9821 5 ай бұрын
Good analysis
@SOICfinance 5 ай бұрын
Thank you for watching our videos. 😃 We hope this video was informative and is relevant to your investing journey. We hope you continue learning with us. 🤝
Super Italiano
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