Please be civil in the comments. Would your mother approve of that nasty comment you're writing? For other videos on tech industry analyses, check out the asianometry playlist of global semiconductor issues: kzfaq.info/sun/PLKtxx9TnH76QEYXdJx6KyycNGHePJQwWW

An important event that helped Chinese companies was the spike in silicon prices a little over 10 years ago. Japanese and western companies invested billions into thin film solar cells (which use less silicon), while China kept using the "old" and more expensive technology. When silicon suppliers increased their production, silicon prices suddenly dropped making Chinese solar panels a lot cheaper. Japanese manufacturers wasted precious resources into a technology that wasn't needed anymore and couldn't afford investing more into expanding production capacity. The rest is history.

You have not mentioned the most important point: China has a Hugh domestic market. China has installed the most amount of panels in the world. It supported those Chinese companies even without export.

The research for the Chinese panels was done at the University of New South Waḻes Australia and on the team was a Chinese student who approached the Australian government for $10 Million to start manufacturing and was knocked back. He approached the Chinese government and was given $100 Million.. Hence Australia AGAIN lost the chance to be a player in this industry. Australia incidentally has the highest ratio of people using solar panels on the planet.

China has Cultivated a large number of engineers, not lawyers, that's important

One thing you neglect to discuss was the crash and consolidation of the China solar indistry. We always hear about how this or that EU or US solar company crashed (usually blamed on China), but seldom about the blood-letting in China. Suggested topic!

I did not even expect that German industry would produce solar cells in the long term. But I'm quite happy that Germany helped to create a market, motivating Chinese companies to scale up production. The amount of subsidy seemed a little crazy at the time, and now I'm proud we did it, as it was more useful than I expected.

Civil comment: I still wish solar were much cheaper.....doesn’t make financial sense for my house and power costs.

Another huge factor has to do with solar grade silicon manufacturing. With the price going from $35/kg to over $300, as you mentioned in passing, how that came back down to a reasonable price is important. This huge factor of 10 price signal in a high production material science area would create a massive expansion in the capacity as fast as it could be built. However, in Europe, the US, and Japan/Korea these facilities require permissions from hundreds of agencies, environmental impact reports, etc., and even considering a "greenfield" massive expansion for a billion-dollar class facility takes decades to obtain all the approvals. These are massive manufacturing facilities and a bit of a cross between iron production and chemical plants with hazardous materials and just huge scale. The producers in the US, Europe, and outside China could only really expand existing facilities and couldn't get permissions for new facilities on a reasonable time scale in an expanding market. My understanding was that China build a 1.5 billion dollar facility in less than 1.5 years (about right without permission and regulatory issues) and paid for that facility in the first 6 mo of production profits. When supply caught up with demand, the question would be who got the silicon at a reasonable price first and it wouldn't be Germany or US with all their silicon expansion plans still working on environmental impact reports and hiring lobbyists. Too little, too late.

Great video, lots of well researched information delivered concisely with no bullshit

The main advantage of China is that they don't have oil lobby

Thank you for the extended video!

Incredibly deep research went into this video on this so knowledgeable channel!

I did a Ph.D. in low-cost solar silicon manufacturing and also have a startup from my Ph.D. It is true that the solar module supply chain is extremely competitive and China is definitely leading the way. Thank you for the informational video

One of the reasons the subsidies were cut is the following: paying people for putting solar cells on their roofs benefits exactly one type of people: those who own a property AND are already well off. Even though subsidised during energy production, there is a lot of upfront cost which poorer households can't affort. Never mind those which don't even own a property themselves or are in an apartment building. So essentially it was just an amazing investment vehicle for those with money to burn. That didn't sit well with a lot of the population in Germany.

Nice one. Expanded my knowledge, tnx.

China is winning because their local demand is huge , and also the government involvement and support is huge.

Germany lost because of stupid politicians who made energy expensive without any discrimination of the purpose

Detailed study. Professional presentation

Your channel is gold! Not sure what I'll use all the information for yet, but it's surely interesting to know. Great research.

Very nice video .it isn’t easy to collect so much information from a different language.thank you.it seems technology industry is something more complex than technology itself .

can we appreciate that a deer made this channel

Sounds very similar to how they developed high speed trains.

Very good summary. Thank you.

Excellent factual discussions and helpful analysis ! Thanks. Regards.

_"Great videos have less views and bad graphics."_ I agree. I have watched your videos. All are of great knowledge and in depth research. Thanks.

Great work as per usual!!

Thanks! Enjoyed watching your informative video.

I love the hypocrisy about 'fair trade'. There is no way a country can advance technologically without government assistance particularly in R&D investments. Sanctions in the name of fairness is widely used. It is a geopolitical tool. Anyway, more than 10 years ago, I would not have gone into solar installation for my home due to high price and a long time to get your returns; but with the current increased performance, cheaper prices and government subsidies, most home now have solar panels.

It's understandable to put up tariffs to protect domestic production, but it's sad considering how fossil fuels are subsidized here in the US. It would have been nice for the west to have subsidized domestic solar instead... At least the tariffs are set to expire soon

Wow, thats a lot of views fast! Good job asianometry! You're always great but its nice to see that validated.

Great, thanks. Not too long, you covered a lot.

A couple points. Raw materials going into making the pure polysilicon comes from China from my understanding and for what doesn't come from there, most the rest comes from Russia. Once China got good at producing the material needed for the panels, it was THEIR efforts that caused the prices to drop so much because they didn't charge those huge profit margins. So frankly it was Chinese companies that allowed solar to be so affordable like it is now. Western businesses were too busy making insane profit margins. As was pointed out, Chinese companies improved the equipment involved in the manufacturing process which also allowed costs to come down, so pretty much everything about how good the panels are now along with the low cost, if you're outside the US and don't have to pay a stupid ass 25% tariff thanks to Trump and Biden which has slowed the growth of solar installs, is brought to you by Chinese R&D What allowed the Chinese solar industry to do well during the Great Recession is the govt did a lot of investing in bringing solar energy to different parts of China. In fact the Chinese govt. has done more investing into green energy like wind and solar than any other govt. in the world. Some may say this is unfair, but I don't see how a country investing in its own infrastructure is unfair. It's smart. Solyndra had a TOTALLY different business model. Because of the cost of polysilicon continually going up as the companies involved in its production kept pushing prices higher, Solyndra was using other materials to produce solar panels. They would have been successful if the Chinese companies didn't get involved. The cost for that material, polysilicon dropped by 90% within about a 1 - 2 year time frame. So because Chinese companies came in and helped to greatly reduce the cost of this raw material needed for the panels, the panels Solyndra were making which DIDN'T use polysilicon couldn't compete. So bravo to the many Chinese efforts in solar technology along with cost controls in the supply chain. It was THEIR efforts that have allowed the huge growth in solar energy, and nothing western companies were doing, which were mostly focused on maximizing their profit margins and trying to get every last bit of incentive dollars coming from the different govts. Their demise was them not trying to compete but instead always focusing on high profit margins. The main thing the Chinese govt. did was put money into R&D, which is the same thing western govts. do, along with ensuring there was large growth in solar energy in China to help their industries, and this isn't unfair either. Their govt. has no rules about the govt. being independent of business. To me, I think Western govts. need to rethink their separation between business and govt, the US ESPECIALLY because they've cut so much money from R&D that it's harder to compete against most Asian businesses where their govts. will put money where they see it's best used. Now, what China does from time to time is out of line with the tenets of the WTO so personally I don't feel China belongs in the WTO, but that's another topic.

I wouldn’t say they’ve won it just yet. Still plenty of room for improvement. However, I’m glad to see the Chinese have contributed a lot in advancing solar technology.

The german manufacturing equipment supplier you are talking about is „Meyer Burger“. They shifted their strategy last year and stopped selling their next gen solar manufacturing equipment. They use it themselves to produce high efficiency panels in Germany starting in June 2021.

I remembered the compromise was reached for the anti-dumping for solar panels because China threatened to retaliate by blocking European companies to participate in China’s 4G rollout. That would kill both Ericsson and Nokia.

Anyway, the reason is that Chinese government really wants cheaper solar cost. Just have a look at the stats from 2013 to 2018, they have real demand for solar energy.

I work in the Solar Industry in Calif. U.S.A. and I have more than one of the solar panels you talked about ay my house, Great Video Thanks

Wow, thanks for the video

Thank you so much for this candid honest analysis.

There are always winners and losers in business. The cheaper solar becomes, the more PVs installer, the better for all of us, regardless of who is better at manufacturing and selling them.

Very nicely made, thank you 👍

Thanks for the information.

Great content 😊

What I can relate is that when regulations in Brazil allowed grid-tie installations for everyone it boomed a entire new market. Most of our country is excellent for solar production, and if the government were more competent they would subdise that so many would have a better and greener power plant.

A good documentary, thanks for your efforts. But on 19:22 the narrator said: "And the (Chinese) government has been responding a little bit, growing their installed solar capacity across the country." Actually China installed 49,655 MW new solar PV capacity in 2020 (254,355 MW in total), which is 37% of worldwide capacity (35.6% in total), and more than EU, America and Japan combined. I'd not say that's "a little bit".

Awesome video

pretty accurate and thorough.

Your​ research​ on​ many​ topic​s​ is​ out​stand​ing​

When I was younger, the Solar industry was seen as the future technology that would help pull post-industrial cities out of their misery by providing new manufacturing jobs. Sad to see how that went.

Love your videos

Wonderful video.

Good point：We lost the solar market. But the low price could help whole world to use solar energy.

Even a few years ago, investors would shy away from the solar industry in China, for the competition is just too fierce and each company, even the largest one run risk of bankruptcy everyday. China started at the middle of the chain, which is more labor intensive, and wt low barrier to entry. Yet they need to buy machines and raw materials that were expensive, but sell at low prices as a result of competition. So many companies failed, I remember I once visited a solar co. for due diligence, as they aimed to IPO, didn’t succeeded, and the company went bankrupt 2 years ago.

Great job 👏

Brilliant. Thank you.

Your video mostly spotlight the story before 2015. All the companies you mentioned never back to the top. Companies like Longi now lead the industry.

In fact, polysilicon in the photovoltaic industry has lagged behind, now the high-efficiency solar panels are used monocrystalline silicon, and monocrystalline silicon purification slices have reached the level of production of semiconductors, China has completed the upgrade of the entire industry chain in this regard, and the West in the field of semiconductors formed the same advantage, the later will always have a cost advantage, and the advantage will be greater and greater with time. At the time of the video China's solar panel power generation cost was 1yuan/kW-h, but by today 2022, his cost has fallen to close to the feed-in tariff of traditional thermal power plants 3mao(1yuan=10mao)/kW-h, which means that the cost of solar power generation has begun to be lower than traditional energy, the market will spontaneously promote the transformation of traditional energy to new energy, the Chinese government from 2021 to The Chinese government will start to phase out subsidies for the PV industry from 2021 to 2025, allowing it to accept full market competition.

Good analysis,

Good program 🤓

Congratulations for your efforts👍👍👍👏👏👏

Great video. Question, why is the solar inverter the most valuable part of this industry? Note to self, the highest profit margins are generated from the firms providing the silicon (start of process) and installation (end of process), not manufacturing (middle of the process)

Seemed very well balanced. Good job.

Thanks........ Very informative.!.!...

hello I am happy I subscribed. m Thoughtful and well delivered.

The lesson is true for all industries

BP used to have a solar panel plant in Sydney Australia in the 1990s. I have 20 of these panels still up on the roof and after 25 years they still operate at about 75% rated capacity. The plant closed in the early 2000s and the equipment sent to China.

So this video is released in 2021, but strangely at 19:31 the data for PV installed capacity ends at 2012, showing an anaemic internal Chinese market at the time, any reason for that? China has continued to accelerate its internal install capacity and today totals 253 GW which is over 100 GW more than europes 137GW, why not show that instead of combining it with the productive capacity and leaving out the last 8 years when we have the data?

China looks forward in centuries and USA looks forward in quarterly profits!

Excellent demonstration of the evolution of solar panel of Chinese hold and the market hold of western capitalism.

Brilliant as ever.

谢谢！

It is a commodity product, and a lower cost producer almost always wins.

As always, very comprehensive about business dynamics

Pl have a video on semi conductor technology - intel , tsmc, smic etc

What China did is fantastic and the whole world benefits from it. It is important to empathise that Japan did the same thing with the automobile industry I the 80's and the US did the same with the textile industry in the early 1900. Namely they learned from the industry leaders and improved on the technology. With regards to the American investment, I seriously doubt it would have made much difference if it did not happen because the Chinese government would have made the investment itself without any issues l.

Love this essay. In the new era with a more defensive stance towards Chinese exporters, would Germany still have lost the solar industry?

Thanks for good news, I think that we have to use a lot of solar panels, but I think we should use roof, the agricultur has to be providing food, sometime they could be both. Best from Sweden.

Good points.

Will there be a similar video on chips some years from now?

This guys videos are really good. Subscribed. Could you do a video about Shin-Etsu?

Hey, thanks. Keep up the good work. Your video explained why Chinese panels overtaken German panels, a question which baffled me for a long time. However, I am still baffled why solar energy become a thing THIS time around while I didn't see any major technical breakthrough. And I've been around for a long time and witness hype over solar energy 2-3 times before this round.

One word for China's competitiveness: speed.

it takes of a lot time and effort research into asia corporation information as most of them is not transparent, thank you

Great summary of the solar sector! A video idea would be looking at the recent Trump trade tensions forcing Chinese companies move to Malaysia and other countries to bypass tariffs.

Wonderful video....and yes i am partly a beneficiary of the cost effective china made solar technology, was finally able to install a solar pv system on my residence rooftop..

Sir hum ko 2022 or 2023 kay milane solar panala purchase karna hay solution give me

I once bump into the CEO of Genting group travelling in economy. They are billionaires. Genting is opening a casino in Las Vegas. They had a big casino in Singapore.

Chinese made solar hardware inexpensive to many. Here in the Philippines 🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭, almost all are Chinese made including mine installed whereas all are Chinese and it helped with the electric bill and power outage.

19:17 how capacity can go down 2011->2012? End-of-life of panels?

Labor costs, electricity cost, no R&D costs *copycat, intellectual property theft*, loose pollution regulations *absolute comparative advantage*, currency manipulation of the RMB, lots of different reasons

You cannot blame people blaming their government when politics becomes the problem and not the solution.

Will you make a video about the semi-conducter business? This was a very informative video. I'm surprised you don't have 100k subs

15:30 what does that joke about retain store means?

how many sunny days do you have in winter? :) how big is your biggest desert?

Here's a question on solar PVs. Since they typically have an effective lifespan of around 25 years, what happens after that. Do they get dumped in landfills becoming like what plastic waste is to us today? Especially considering that not much of it can be recycled.

No unions. Cheap labor. Huge population willing to work. They will continue to win for now on.

10 years later this will happen to chips industry.

18:58 over production?!? 450 TW photovoltaic is necessary for all tasks including planet renovation. This requires even with 40 years usage time 11 TW yearly production. Even 2021, there is only 2% of the necessary PV production

asianometry, could you delve into China's new found love for archeology? Chinese archeologists just made their biggest find in recent history and hardly the Western media is talking about it. Could you make a video out of it? Like where the find is, the cultural impact it is doing to the Chinese people, and any topic that comes with it.