#nbadraft #nba
To start off, let's demystify the draft lottery odds. We all know that the worst teams in the league have the highest chance of securing the top draft pick. If your team finished in the top 16 teams, you won't be part of the draft lottery. The best team in the regular season receives the 30th pick, while the 16th best team gets the 15th pick. The second round is determined by team records, with the best team picking 60th and the worst team picking 31st.
Now, let's focus on the odds for the three worst teams in the league, as they have the highest likelihood of acquiring a favorable pick. The NBA has established that these teams have the exact same odds of obtaining the first through fourth pick. This change was implemented to discourage teams from intentionally losing games to improve their chances. It's no fun for fans to watch their team actively try to lose, right? So, if you're one of the three worst teams, your odds for the number one pick are 14%, 13.42% for the second pick, 12.75% for the third pick, and 11.97% for the fourth pick.
For example, the Detroit Pistons, being the worst team this year, ended up with the fifth pick. Some may argue that it's what they deserved because "God curses those who tank." On the other hand, the Houston Rockets, the second-worst team, had the potential to get the sixth pick but fortunately landed the fourth pick instead. The San Antonio Spurs, who had the third-worst record, surprisingly secured the number one pick, which many speculate will be used on the highly coveted Victor Wembanyama.
There are often rumors of the draft being rigged, especially when a highly sought-after player like Wembanyama ends up with a team known for its success. However, the lottery system is designed to be fair. The lottery machine is filled with balls, and four balls are randomly selected in order, forming a series of numbers. Each team has specific combinations of numbers associated with them. Representatives from every team are present to ensure that there's no funny business going on. In the past, the draft lottery was conducted in a less sophisticated manner, with David Stern drawing an envelope from a glass case. This led to conspiracy theories, such as the 1985 draft where it was speculated that the NBA froze the New York Knicks' envelope for Stern to grab and give them the number one overall pick.
Now that we've covered how the lottery works, let's move on to traded picks. Teams have the ability to trade their future picks, allowing for interesting dynamics. For example, the Chicago Bulls' pick, as mentioned earlier, belongs to the Orlando Magic. The Magic acquired this pick in a trade involving Vucevic in 2021. This year, the Magic have the sixth and eleventh picks. However, the pick they obtained from the Bulls was protected, meaning if the Bulls had secured the first through fourth pick, they would have kept it. This protection ensures that teams don't feel foolish for trading away a pick that turns out to be a game-changing player.
On draft night, we often witness teams making trades to move up and secure a player they really want. A classic example is the Dallas Mavericks trading up for Luka Doncic. Doncic fell to the third pick, and the Mavs, with the fifth pick, knew they had to make a move. They called the Atlanta Hawks, who had the third pick, and the two teams swapped picks. The Mavs acquired Doncic, while the Hawks selected Trae Young with the fifth pick. In this case, the Mavs had to give up their first-round pick the following year, which ended up being Cam Reddish.
Now, let's delve into the fascinating world of Rookie Scale contracts. These contracts are generally long and cheap deals that adjust with the salary cap. The position you're drafted in correlates with your salary. For example, next year Victor Wembanyama will be making $9 million, while Bradley Beal will be making a staggering $47 million. As you can see, Rookie Scale contracts are relatively affordable. The lower you're picked in the first round, the lower your salary will be. The player selected last in the first round this year will make $1.8 million.
Technically, Rookie Scale contracts are four-year deals, but their length can vary depending on certain factors. The first two years of the contract are fully guaranteed. For example, Wembanyama will receive $9 million in his rookie year and $9.6 million in his sophomore year, regardless of any unforeseen circumstances. The last two years of the contract are team options. The team isn't obligated to pick up these options, which means that a player could potentially become a free agent at the end of their sophomore season if the team decides not to exercise their option.
For second-round picks, the Rookie Scale contract doesn't apply. These players usually sign two-way contracts, 10-day contracts, or, if they're fortunate, one-year league minimum contracts, which typically amount to around a million dollars.