George really just wrote a scene with characters named Areo, Arys and Arianne....no wonder he had to kill off one.

I like your description of Theon's post-death fakeout as "everything ended up okay"

At first I thought Victarion would die early in winds, but the thought of him and Tyrion trying to rule Mereen together is funny enough that I hope he lives for a bit.

one idea that came to my mind. george HAS to kill baristan if he wants conflict between the martells and danny. baristan is known to be an honorable man, if he sends a letter and later arrives in westeros explaining the death of Quentin to the martells they will live with it. if baristan dies they will not believe the story and could be convinced by third parties that danny did in fact, kill Quentin.

If Selmy is killed (which is probably happening) I think it’s what will turn Dany’s eyes West. Her link with home will be severed and she will feel it’s one more link with her past severed, so needs must to take sail. Also Tyrion will be the voice from home to take Selmy’s place but while Ser B was an honest and loyal servant, Tyrion has a lengthy agenda; he wants away from slavers, he wants revenge on his family and he has a chip on his shoulder to air so big Jackson’s chippy couldn’t come up with vinegar [sic. vernacular] I think there’s also a real possibility Aegon will end up being killed at Storm’s End or at some point on the path to King’s Landing. That leaves a major issue for JohnConn and the Golden Company; support Dany? Not what he was planning at all…

Actions have consequences(George definitely)

Regarding Areo Hotah, I think he will only die when Doran dies. I say "when" because I can't see Doran lasting till the end. It would be fitting for Hotah to die protecting his master

Imo, Arianne Martell is a goner. Her being surrounded by other viewpoints doesnt help her situation as you said in the video. It also makes a ton of narrative sense imo for Arianne's death to be the exact thing that forces and solidifies Dorne into the fAegon camp. If I'm not mistaken, fAegon (if legitimate) would be the heir to Dorne as Oberyn, Arianne, and Quentyn are all dead. Aside from the numerous Oberyn bastards, it seems fAegon is the only option. This would mean between Dany's killing of Quentyn and the crown's killing of Arianne, Doran is forced to side with fAegon. This could also be a crucial step to solidifying fAegon's hold on the Seven Kingdoms, making him become king as the "mummer's dragon" Dany was warned about. It also makes sense that Dorne historically has a reputation of being the ones who fought off Aegon's conquest, meaning that their alliance to fAegon and opposition to Dany could have some negative effects on Dany's cause symbolically. It gives fAegon's cause a feeling of legitimacy and Dany's a feeling of illegitimacy. Edit: This is also assuming the plot on Trystane's life is successful. If this is the case, fAegon is the only legitimate surviving heir to Doran thru his mother, Elia.

Another great vid. POV Mel rezzing Jon would be awesome and give us some firsthand insight in to how her/R'hollor magic works too. Cheers!

Now that you've mentioned it, I think it will be a pattern he'll try to break...which will inevitably delay the release of TWOW

Honestly I wish more stories could actually break from the mold of "mcs/heroes actions are always right" as they make the story hit stronger. Gundam ibo does this where the main characters die due to their actions and they deserves it as they rushed towards getting revenge constantly which was their motto. In any other series they would be right and get away with it but here plot armor doesn't save you from a massive army. Even just sacrificing a main character would be fine showing how characters grow

The most tragic death in the TV show was Lord Frey. Man lived a long full life and earned the right to die peacefully in his own bed, surrounded by young poon. To have him BETRAYED by a little girl is insulting to the audience. Lord Frey may not have been a great warrior or a 'chosen one' but he deserved better that what he got. He was ever loyal to his family (even allowing bastards to live in his castles) and unapologetically gave fire and steel to whosoever may have threatened their wellbeing. Rest in peace, Lord Frey.

“His very stylish turtle hats” _THEY’RE TERRAPINS_

"all five of those characters died while another viewpoint character was nearby..." manifesting Ed POV chapters in Winds

Any character could die at anytime because he’s constructed the narratives in such a way as to have them make sense, big moments don’t have to happen only at the beginning and end, part of what makes a lot of them so shocking is they happen 5/7s of the way through any given book. Which makes it a lot easier to read a several hundred page book if at any point in its length interesting things are always happening. But it’s not a random chart on a dart board, if he grows out the plot, and feels like a character would die due to the previous events, then voila. Oversimplification of a laborious process but you guys get the idea, it’s a trick, a shadow on the wall.

Plot twist: WOW is 88 Bran chapters as he has obtained omniscience. Pattern is both maintained and broken.

Great video! Cheers!❤

You forgot that Merrit Frey was actually present during the Red Wedding (although he was passed out drunk), but he was also a POV character on the epilogue in ASOS, so it gave us more introspection into the Frey side of the red wedding set up.

3:30 Speaking of all this wargin.... Did Robb actually warg into his mother? It's what he said as he was dying and that seems to be how it worked for Jon and Ghost. Is he sharing her body with her? Is that why she sits there fiddling with the crown in the cave and on a mission for his body? Her and Robb are stuffed in there like Bran and Hodor and if so who is the one hiding in the hidey hole? Or are they both there and slowly meshing into one person? I can see Catelynn taking the backseat or him while he hunts for his body. It would also explain why everyone takes the role of subordinate from her. But when she is killed at the red wedding I guess he would have gotten kicked out again.... Damn... I thought I had something there for a min.... Unless somehow the bones remember?

Quinn keeping us fed while we wait for winds.

It's mainly honorable characters that die; eddard stark, arys oakheart, barristan selmy.

Amazing analysis!

So the characters who “die” in their own POV chapters, Cat, Theon & Jon, end up coming back and everybody else that dies in somebody else’s remain dead. With the exception obviously of the prologue PoV ones who I think all die (I could be wrong)

Idea; We know who the next major character to die in Kings Landing will be. We know that Aegon is planning to sit the Iron Throne, and will definitely need the backing of a bunch of the high lords to achieve this, especially the major houses. He already has blood connection to Dorne, but regardless, they're unlikely to give him much in tge way of martial support given (a) "Wait till they drop" Doran Martell, and (b) how Elia was treated by the last Targaryen rule. Since the StormLands are in the way for the Golden Company towards King's Landing, if High Garden is able to be secured, it would help go along way, both yes in terms of Martial easy and power, but also the good rep of High Garden with the commonfolk. The Tyrells definitely have good reason to join, as Cersei did a Paranoia and puldged their relation down the drain, Kevn won't be mending the relationship anytime soon, and with the Trail by Combat within only a couple days, I don't see Tyrell's continuing to enjoy working with only Lannister in Direct Power Cersei. Of course, the main issue for why the Tyrells can't go away from Lannisters right now is the marriage between Margery and Tommen. An unconsumated marriage to a boy king with no kings guards, as they're too busy: being in jail - coming back from dorne - Schrodinger's Oil - LORD COMMANDER M.I.A in the Riverlands - Sick day off (per Queen Regent's brilliant scheming) - Fighting for said Queen Regent - Fighting for Margery. Wouldn't it be a shame for Tommen if there was someone... maybe in the red keep... who knows of it's secret passages... and has no problem killing people who are overall unprotected... and has motivation to help the aegon cause... because that would be just such a shame 🙂 I do wonder if this may even affect the Cersei's trail, like we're expecting a cool duel between Robert "Doesn't Poop" Strong and "Totally 100%" Boros Blount, but what if during the combat, the Rings were Rung, and the news was delivered to those who attended?

I really want Tommen, Wyla Manderly, Shireen Baratheon, Myrcella, Rickon Stark, and maybe even Stannis to become POV characters in the last two books.

I think Jaime is probably safe as he's gonna end up being the valonqar and strangle Cerci with the Hand of the King necklace (he's technically her younger brother, "golden hands around your throat" etc) to prevent a Wildfire Plot Reloaded that she'll order when it looks like the city is going to fall, but he won't survive the series, just the next book. Likewise Sam is basically George so he won't kill him (and we need an Oldtown perspective for the "Battle of Blood") and Tyrion will be okay as he final ending in the series will be being made to join the watch, but it will be okay because he gets to be the new librarian.

I wouldn't say Theon was "ok" lmfao

Everyone is safe as winds of winter is never comming out

I realized this pattern long ago, which is why I don't think Jon is dead (yet). He is in a Schrodinger cat situation.

This is only semi-related, but I’ve been thinking about justice and retribution in ASOIAF, and how some people seem to think it’s this very grimdark, edgy series about bad things being done by bad people and like, most of the deaths that come to mind are actually retributive. Joff, of course, and Tywin; even Robert in some ways (awful to his wife, bad king, etc). And it’s always so poetic - the Frey guy being hanged by the woman he helped to kill, Tywin on the privy, Viserys and his “golden crown”.

Please GRRM! Do not kill off Tommen and Myrcella. Tommen especially because he is the most innocent and pure cinnamon bun in this world! Tommen deserves a happy ending where he's riding on his pony around Casterly Rock with his cats and uncle Tyrion on horseback beside him. The part in A Clash of Kings where Tommen is riding on his pony and people cheering for him still fills my eyes with tears.

I honestly think that Barry will survive the battle of fire. At least, I hope he does. Imagine his perspective, watching Daenerys slide further and further into destruction and fire, pushed by Moqorro and Tyrion. And maybe, just maybe, he’ll realize that there are more important things than a knight’s honor. Barristan has always despised Jaime Lannister, but he’ll end up attempting the same crime. I don’t see him succeeding. He’ll be stopped and burned in dragon fire, because it took him too long to realize what he must do. (This is a lot more GRRMy than dying in battle)

Jokes on you all, Quentyn and Jon are still alive and Catelyn has already come back... sort of. Honestly if I was GRRM I'd bring back Quentyn, just because how much the idea pisses most fans off. I'd even release one sample chapter called "The Burned Suitor" and say the release date of TWoW is going to be years away due to rewrites because of Quentyn, HBO spin-offs and other series he's working on (especially if not even true and the release is close.) That "Quentyn is the key to the corner he's painted himself into," (being that of getting a dragon to Faegon for the second Dance to start in King's Landing when Dany arrives.) Just an utter troll of an update on Winds for the lolz. "There's nothing like a good villain." -- GRRM

That Kenny Loggins comment was perfect, lol.

I think GRR may write a Robert Strong = Sandoq the Shadow parallel (mute, queen defending giants) so Jon Con and his men may be killed by Robert as they try to take Maegor’s Holdfast.

I think Tyrion will be safe given GRR's love for him, but it'd be a Red Wedding style shock if he was bumped off

I want TWOW to come out so much

Oakheart is first men blood arys warged into hotahs axe and is now his wife

That pattern is correct. Great Video! One Little Criticism: I think Martin still will "resurrect" Jon pretty immediately if he is really dead, because yes Melissandre is there at the Wall and a newly introduced PoV, BUT we still don't know if Jon is really dead or just unconscious. Yes, his Wounds are possibly deadly, but Theron's torture was too and we all know how that turned out. The same goes for Bran and his fall and Davos and the Battle of the Blackwater. So real-life surgery and Medical facts are pretty much useless in a magical Setting. Because Bran is unconscious for many Weeks, probably a few months, and normally fluids follow the Way of the least resistance, which means when you don't use something like a Pipe or tube to make sure the fluid food is ending in the Stomach, these fluids will end in the Lungs most of the Time. So I think the first Melissandre chapter will be about what happened to Jon in terms of his current Life or lifeless status. And most likely we end up with a Comatose Jon, just like Bran, because it is easier to make people believe the fluid Food (I think Lewin used a Honey-Water-Combo for Bran which by some wonder ended in his Stomach) ended in Jons Stomach than to make us believe Queen Selyse allows Melissandre to kill her Princess for a Bastard, even if he was Lord Commander. Someone who still refused to let them take Residence in the Nightfort, which Queen Selyse was unhappy about. Maybe the new Lord Commander would allow them to go to the Nightfort? That could be Selyses Way of thought in this Case.

An exception to the rules that you are describing here are most of the characters in the prologue’s of each book and the two epilogues These chapters are told from a unique perspective of characters whose purpose is to provide the reader with specific information that is important to know. Maester Cressen and Chett do die in the presence of another POV character. But as far as I know, this does not apply to the rest of these characters.

The other part of the pattern seems to be that the characters always die in circumstances that directly oppose their greater goals at that point in the story: Eddard was about to denounce the illegitimacy of Cersei's children; Catelyn was about to appease the Frey (and later kill the late Lord Frey); Arys was about to take Myrcella to where she would be queen; Quentin was about to obtain a dragon for himself; and Jon was about to lead an attack on Winterfell. This leads me to think that either Theon or Asha will die pretty soon (likely Asha, but her brother is an option since it's similar to Arys' case), and that Brienne will end up dead either way after Jaime confronts Lady Stoneheart. Something I've noticed is that Catelyn came back to fulfill her *greatest* desire, which *wasn't* directly involved in her death. This mirrors Jon's case, and might indicate his awakening as inevitable. I don't think there will be more characters who meet those conditions (aside from maybe Aeron, if for some reason George wants to make the Greyjoy house as a whole more important six books in as opposed to killing half of their POV holders so only Euron and Victarion may shine), but it's something to look out for, since TWOW looks like a POV hunting season.

I don't understand your issue with the oakheart

I bet he has a full walk in closet of those hats

One of the genius aspects to Martin’s writing in ASOIAF is that when the major shocking events happen, whether Ned’s death, the Red Wedding or others, you see that they were in evitable upon a reread. While the events shock you on your first read, it becomes quite clear that Martin has foreshadowed the big twists in a way that makes the reader understand that they never came out of nowhere, even though the foreshadowing is cleverly obscured on the initial read. That is evidence of a great author. J.K. Rowling remarked on this exact ability of Jane Austin in her classic novel Emma. This may seem like a strange comparison totally with ASOIAF. But Rowling stated that she read Emma once a year because she marveled at how the author pulled off certain twists that are cleverly embedded throughout the story. Although the story details that Rowling is referring to in Emma cannot be similarly obscured in the visual depictions of the film adaptations, the Game of Thrones series was able to successfully do exactly that in their television adaptation.

I don't know if the pattern will continue but I need Young Griff to survive.

I think we need to be careful here, with regard to assuming that people will die BECAUSE other viewpoints are present. It works much better the other way, i.e. characters being „safe“(-ish) as long as no other pov are around. On the other hand, just because Martin only wants to kill viewpoints in the presence of other viewpoints does not mean we should actually expect him to kill povs whenever they‘re together. Just because A is a precondition for B, it does not mean A leads to be in every instance. This is especially true because, as the story nears it‘s climax he has to start converging his pieces geographically so they can take part in the action, and also because he has to close down narrative arcs and sort of undo the massive expansion of the story up to this point. Killing all those characters once they‘re together would be not only impractical, but also waste the narrative potential of letting them interact. Part of George‘s thing this entire time has been denying us the narrative payoff of key characters meeting; whenever we thought it would happen, George more often than not ended up yelling „SYKE“ moving them further apart instead (expanding the story, which he has done constantly up to now). But that doesn‘t mean POVs interacting isn‘t still a big narrative payoff that he definitely needs to do and is even more crucial to the story than killing them off. Characters that served their POV function can just as easily simply stop being POVs. So I think it‘s not all that simple. There are more and less likely cases. Jaime and Brienne for example are very likely. My guess is one of them dies and this moves the character arc of the one that doesn‘t. But take Barristan for example: sure, him dying is a possibility, but what if he actually lives to interact with Tyrion? There is a lot of potential for conflict between them, and Barristan is crucially the only one in Meereen who has any real idea of who Tyrion is. That also means he is the only readily available mechanism for confronting Tyrion with his past. Yeah Jorah knows him by reputation, but it’s clear he knows very little about him, unlike Barristan. Barristan is literally the key to delivering payoff on Tyrion‘s arc. That gets wasted if he dies. If Jorah shows up with Tyrion and says „look at this, I brought Dany THE IMP“ most people in Dany‘s court will be like „ok, we don‘t care who that is“. Unlike Barristan, who is definitely going to have an opinion not just on Tyrion personally but also on Jorah‘s kidnapping of him. And he‘s the only one who can offer Dany any input at all on who this man actually is. So, there‘s going to be different cases. At the very least, we can‘t expect a meeting between Tyrion and Dany to immediately result in one of them dying. I guess it might, but it seems unlikely.

Which viewpoint was nearby Cat when she died? That doesn't fit with the pattern.

In most cases he has a way out or just brings them back from the dead anyway

RIP all the prologue and epilogue characters

I've got a theory, don't know if it's been said before or not, so whatever: Dany will die and Jorah will parallel Jon Con. Unlike in the show where Jorah gives his life for his queen, I think Dany will die and Jorah will be just like Jon Con, homesick and in love with a dead Targareon.

nice speculation

Singular: criterion Plural: criteria God help modern education.

So what you are saying is Quinton lives!

Are prologues being excluded? All 5 of those guys died

If Arya dies, that will hit differently!

Poor Arys Oakheart lol

with joy

Kenny logins!

John Connington

2:30 obviously when he died he turned into a pigeon

Areo Hotar isn't a POV character, he's just a POV

It has been 4,500 days since Jon Snow died. RIP

carmine?

Wait, Ned's a pigeon? Isn't he ahorse?

I think arya stark + Cersei lannister + theon+ wil die in the wind of winter

What was the point of Quenten if he is actually just dead

Quentin is dead lol. I liked him. I didn't want him to die,but Selmy very clearly describes a dead man lol and it's Quentin

Quinn from the bathroom GM

Why have I always pictured Areoh Hotah as a black bald man lmao

I agree Barristan's probably gonna die, and I wouldn't mind getting rid of Arianne. I'd love to see more of Aeron but I doubt he's going to make it. I think most major characters are safe for now, except for maybe Theon - I can see him having a meaningful death in the battle of ice.

LMAO Jojen paste....

Arya is a goner I'm sorry

It looks like GRRM killed off your audio quality.

Arya recognizes dead Cat. Barristan doesn't doesn't recognize the body in Dany's bed. That body doesn't match Quentyn's condition.

Valar morghulis - all these characters are potentially toast.

maybe winds is taking so long because he has decided to kill off bran 🙏🙏🙏🙏

I’m personally betting Victarion dying given he has much larger death flags imo